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Poll Roundup (9/25)

by: James L.

Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 6:40 PM EDT


We can't walk from one desk to the other over here in SSP World Headquarters without tripping over another new poll that we haven't written up yet. Let's take care of 'em in a roundup. All polls must go!

  • AZ-Gov/Sen: Arizona GOP Gov. Jan Brewer is not only imperiled in the general election, she's also extremely vulnerable to a primary challenge, according to PPP. State Treasurer Dean Martin leads Brewer by 37-26, but Brewer manages to come out on top against ex-Gov. Fife Symington by 39-31. However, in a three-way race against Martin and Symington, Brewer comes in last; Symington leads with 34, Martin clocks in at 26, and Brewer only registers at 22%. Ouch.

    And in case you were wondering, John McCain doesn't have anything to worry about in a primary race: he's dispatching Minutemen founder Chris Simcox by a 61-17 spread.

  • CA-Sen: Everyone's favorite pollster, Rasmussen Reports, has dipped its toes back in the sunny California surf, and they have some better news for Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by 49-39 (up from 45-41 in July), and Chuck DeVore by 46-37.

  • CO-Gov/Sen: The Tarrance Group, a GOP firm, is out with a new poll of the Senate and gubernatorial primaries in Colorado. For Governor, Scott McInnis leads Josh Penry by 40-13, and Jane Norton has a 45-15 edge over Ken Buck in the Senate race. On the Democratic side, Michael Bennet leads Andrew Romanoff by 41-27.

  • IA-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen finds Democratic Gov. Chet Culver in a world of trouble, trailing wingnut Bob Vander Plaats by 43-39, and ex-Gov. Terry Branstad by 54-34. While I don't doubt that Branstad is ahead of Culver at this point (Selzer says as much), the margins may have more to do with the Rasmussen Effect than anything else.

  • MA-Gov: Suffolk came out with their latest poll of the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, and it provides some of the sunniest results for Deval Patrick in recent memory. Despite being saddled with an atrocious 29/56 re-elect rating, Patrick comes out on top of three-way match-ups against Dem-turned-indie Tim Cahill and GOPers Charlie Baker and Christy Mihos. Take your pick: Patrick 36, Cahill 23, Baker 14; or Patrick 36, Cahill 24, Mihos 17.

  • MI-Gov: Two polls here; one from Mitchell Research for the Detroit News, and another by IMP/MRG. Mitchell Research finds GOP AG Mike Cox leading Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry by a disturbing 45-32 margin. In the GOP primary, Cox beats Rep. Pete Hoekstra and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, 30-23-11. The IMP/MRG poll has Cherry on top of businessman Rick Snyder by 42-34, but losing to Bouchard by 41-38. Bizarrely, they also decided to pit Cherry and Cox in a three-way race with Andy Dillon, the Democratic Speaker of the MI House, as an independent. In such a match-up, Cox leads Cherry by 35-33, with 13% of the vote going to Dillon.

  • NY-Gov/Sen-B: I think I've seen more New York polls this year than I've seen rats on the Q line. Rasmussen finds the same old story: Andrew Cuomo would face little difficulty in winning the Governor's office, while Paterson would lose to Rudy and faces a dogfight against Rick freakin' Lazio, of all people. In the Senate race, incumbent Dem Kirsten Gillibrand leads George Pataki by 44-41.

  • OH-Gov/Sen: Rasmussen is seeing Tossups everywhere. In Ohio, Republican John Kasich leads Democrat Ted Strickland by 46-45, while ex GOP-Rep. Rob Portman edges Lee Fisher by 41-40 and Jennifer Brunner by 40-38 in the Senate race.

  • VA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage came out with their first take on Virginia's gubernatorial race, and it's a tight one: 48-44 for McDonnell. This seems to generally correlate with a growing sense that the race is seeing some tightening (just take a look at that Pollster.com chart), despite us not having any trend lines to mark this one against.
James L. :: Poll Roundup (9/25)
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Poll Roundup (9/25) | 18 comments
Does anybody seriously believe Kasich is ahead?


I have had it with the crap rasmussen has been putting out
we all know that Portman is not ahead, we all know that Strickland is ahead. I dont believe that Bennet would be defeated by Norton. I dont think that Kirk is ahead of Giannoulias. The only scenario I see for Specter is him crushing Toomey. Lastly, I absolutey don't believe that there is chance in hell that Robin Carnahan is in a dead heat with Roy Blunt. It's time for Scott Rasmussen to be reprimanded. These are either push polls or pure making up of the data.

Rasmussen
They don't have to be push polls or pure making up the data (although the Franken/Pawlety poll wording was... suggestive); they could be, and likely are, just polls with a terrible likely voter screen that skews heavily Republican. When we get closer to the election, Rasmussen's screen will either work better or adjust it, and we'll once again hear crowing about what a good pollster he is for the 2012 cycle.

[ Parent ]
The most unbelievable one
At least in my opinion, it's his poll of the Iowa gubernatorial election. Gov. Culver losing to both Vander Plaats and Branstad? Really? Desmoinesdem just finished telling us that the Des Moines Register poll found that 50% of Iowans approve of Culver's performance...no way is he losing to either Republican with that kind of appoval rating.

[ Parent ]
Branstand, yes
Every poll has him losing to Branstand.  

[ Parent ]
TY- fixed
Great roundup, James. So many polls!

[ Parent ]
polls
Don't ignore polls you don't like.  Some people here sound like some people at Free Republic during the last 2 cycles.  Ohio and MO are close states that will be decided by a few points either way.  A poll that shows 40-40 in Ohio is useless.  Does anyone think either major party candidate is going to get below 40%?

I'd believe the close race in OH-Sen
I don't believe a poll showing Kasich leading Strickland, or golden parachuted Carly Firedina in a close race with Boxer.  

[ Parent ]
Boxer
will be easily reelected in 2010. Barring some major scandal, she should be able to beat "Carlyforina is delusional." It's rumored she won't dump her personal fortune into the race, which was the only reason why John Cornyn wanted her to run in the first place.

[ Parent ]
Still...
...I could buy Fiorina losing to Boxer by about 11% come election day.  

[ Parent ]
AGREED
EVERY poll that has come out from EVERY polling firm has shown a drop decline in the numbers for the Democrats.  Rasmussen may sometimes show the bleakest, but at times shows pretty decent numbers for us.

I dunno, until people start actually looking into the cross tabs to look for sample errors, then immediately writing off Rasmussen to me is short sighted and dangerous.

The Democrats are not polling well, period.  Not to mention, this a year out from the election.  I remember the Klobuchar/Kennedy race being tight for quite some time, until people actually paid attention.

The shitty polls from everyone, not just Rasmussen, should be more chalked up to use getting hurt in the healthcare debate (but the debate is moving our way) and it being a year out.

A good 20-25% of every state honestly has no idea who they are voting for so poll numbers are generally not that important, except to see how a candidate is received by the base.  In OH, Portman tying Fisher and Brunner, totally legit.  Maybe Rasmussen got a bad sample, maybe Portman just had some great press those of us outside of OH dont know about.

But it really just seems like a lot of people here are blowing off Rasmussen because they dont like the numbers they are putting out and because the guy who runs it has a Republican bias.  Factor that in, shave off a few points, and you're still left where you began, toss-ups all around and that is a very logical place to be in states like MO and OH.  We've got the better candidates and once the election season actually starts going and the attack ads are everywhere, we will win.


[ Parent ]
The case against Rasmussen
Is quite a bit stronger than "We just don't like their numbers" - and I hope you'd respect your fellow horserace junkies to know that people aren't just closing their eyes to something they don't want to see. See this, for instance. For a more recent example from just this past week, see this.

[ Parent ]
Ras issue polling should be taken with a grain of salt.
But his horserace polling is pretty reliable.  

Fundamentally, what we should be looking at are averages, not individual polls.  And the Dems have the advantage in these two races.


[ Parent ]
Agreed
But the point being Rasmussen almost uniformly shows the worst number in every case.

[ Parent ]
I certainly think some of their polls have been questionable
and against logic, but Id say more of their polls have been legit vs outliers.  

A few bad polls in the beginning I think ruined people's perceptions with them.  Like when their polling matched another poll on the VA Gov-race when DKos's seemed a bit more of an outlier.  Or the MO-Sen poll they did, which was legit.

I just dont think a few bad polls should make them immediately not believable.  They still have quite respectable numbers.


[ Parent ]
Ramsussen outlier in NY-Sen too
They are the only recent poll showing Pataki trailing Gillibrand

[ Parent ]
I've started to notice
that Ras's number for the Democrat is usually close to the other pollsters.  However, he seems to increase the Republican share by 5-10%, with fewer undecideds.  The Ohio poll is a great example.  Ras's 45% for Strickland is close to Quinnipiac's 46%.  But Quinnipiac had Kasich at 36% while Rasmussen had him at 46%.  

Same thing in the Senate.  Rasmussen and Quinnipiac each had the Dem candidates around 40%.  But Quinnipiac had Portman in the low 30's, while Rasmussen had him in the low 40's.

I haven't researched my claim here, but it seems like a pretty regular occurrence.  Or maybe I'm losing it.


[ Parent ]
Poll Roundup (9/25) | 18 comments

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