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DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 3:26 PM EST


Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (11/10-15, registered voters, 4/27-30 in parentheses):

Beau Biden (D): 45 (34)
Mike Castle (R): 40 (55)
Undecided: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Mike Castle may be rasping to himself, Lloyd Bridges-style, "Looks like I picked the wrong week to run for Senate." And Beau Biden, who's been strangely coy about whether or not to run for Senate since his return from Iraq, may suddenly feel motivated to declare his intentions.

Susquehanna does a fair amount of Republican internal polling, so unless they're trying some weird messing-with-Biden's-head psy-ops, that makes the finding of a 5-point Biden lead all the more surprising. The last time they looked at the race was April, when Castle had a 21-point lead instead. Between this and R2K's findings last month that the race was a dead heat, it may be time for the rest of the punditocracy to re-evaluate whether this is really the GOP's best shot at a pickup.

UPDATE: The full memo is available now, and Susequehanna attributes this shift in large part to Castle's "no" vote on health care reform, which occurred shortly before the poll went into the field and apparently didn't play well with the state's left-leaning electorate. They also point to Castle polling better among Republicans (72-17) than Biden does among Democrats (65-21), but given Delaware's sizable Democratic registration advantage and a narrowing Castle edge among indies (42-37, down from 55-28 in April), that's enough to put Biden over the top.

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DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle | 118 comments
That doesn't make much sense
But I'll take it. Hopefully Biden jumps in now.
Did you see Castle on the House floor last week?
Regurgitating right-wing talking points just before he voted against health care reform?  It may help him win a primary but it kills his phony moderate image and hurts him with non-teabeggers.
[ Parent ]
Castle Needs to look at Delaware
Hmmmm, a pretty high income state with alot of Democrats... voted 62% for Obama. Castle having trouble in a Republican primary? Yeah right, Castle keeps winning reelection easily in Delaware against Democrats, beating Republicans should be easy. He is a well liked figure in state politics. He should not be trying to cater to the teabaggers. If Castle is pulling close to Beau Biden, the son of the extremely popular Joe Biden who I think won 65% of the vote for Senate last year, Castle is obviously doing something right. If Castle wants to beat Beau, Castle needs to go to the left.  

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com
[ Parent ]
It's nice
to finally have some good news.
Castle killed his Senate chances
by voting against healthcare reform.  He might have been able to weasel his way out of explaining his stimulus vote, but he can't go against every single one of Obama's agenda items and not have it come back to bite him.  Honestly, I'm surprised it's happening so fast, I didn't think Biden would pass him in the polls until early next year when the campaigns ramp up.  Rothenberg still has this as a lean takeover, the only such Senate race in the entire country he sees as likely to flip.
I assume
Rothenberg would flip to toss-up if Biden got in.  Still some ambiguity about that.
[ Parent ]
He said it was still lean Castle
Even with Biden in.
[ Parent ]
Why did I just defend Rothenberg?
He's an idiot, then.
[ Parent ]
Castle
I've been really suprised at how conservative he's been this year in Congress.  His votes against the stimulus package and for the Stupak Amendment will definitely come back to haunt him.  
Lets say Biden takes a pass for some unknown reason
Does Delaware have a good Democratic bench that could be competitive against Castle, maybe some former governors?

Bill Hedrick for Congress
Possibilities are
1) New Castle Co. Exec Chris Coons could run
2) Ex-LG John Carney could switch over from the House race
3) Ted Kaufman could try to stick around and win an election (something he's never done before)

The R2K poll tried out all three of them, but none of them polled as well as Biden. The only other living Dem ex-govs are Tom Carper (already in the Senate), Ruth Ann Minner (age 74 and unpopular), and Sherman Tribbitt (age 87). I suppose current Gov. Jack Markell could run, as he seems pretty popular, but he's only been in office a year and the optics would be weird.

[ Parent ]
It's the kind of race that's ripe for a self-funder
because a competitive race requires Philly TV.  
[ Parent ]
Know if any
of the du Ponts turned out to be Democrats? (We know at least one Rockefeller did.)
[ Parent ]
heh
I'm not sure that's such a good idea. . .
[ Parent ]
What of S.B. Woo?
At least he's younger than Minor.... though not by much.
[ Parent ]
Other candidates include..
Although Coons would be the most likely (and could give Castle a good tussle) some other folks could be...

1)Lt. Governor Matt Denn - although he was just elected to this position he was Insurance Commisioner before this, plus he's pretty young (only 43).  Still, I imagine he's angling for the Governor's Mansion one day

2)Former Wilmington City Council President Ted Blunt.  He made some noise about running for Lt. Governor last year, but hasn't said anything since.

3)New Castle County President Paul Clark.  Viewed as a big Chris Coons ally.

There's not much else beyond that.  Markell will almost certainly not run - he's had his sights set on being Governor for 10 years.  No one in the state legislature except for perhaps Bethany Hall-Long sticks out, and Wilmington Mayor Jim Baker is probably too controversial.  If Beau passes, we'd definitely have some problems.

[ Parent ]
Denn will be a great candidate for higher office one day
He's young, energetic, and progressive. He'll be good as Governor in eight years or maybe to replace Carper further down the road.
[ Parent ]
I think Denn's set on being Governor one day
Although I really like Markell right now - he reminds me of a more progressive version of Mark Warner - and think that he will likely angle for Carper's seat when he retires (which probably won't be until 2018, dovetailing nicely with Markell ending his Governorship in 2016 assuming no hiccups occur along the way).
[ Parent ]
I think his vote for the Stupak amendment
was even worse. Delaware is effectively a suburban Philadelphia Congressional district with a fairly high black population. You don't endear yourself to suburban women by voting for an anti-choice amendment.  
This is how I see this race playing out
Beau Biden will jump in about a month from now. The race will be a lot like the Carper vs. Roth in 2000. Final results will probably be:
55% Biden
45% Castle
In addition, had Jack Markell or John Carney ran against Castle in 2006 or 2008, Castle would have been unseated.
Senate Races in DE, CO, AR, CT, and IL are going to be like fools gold for the GOP.
AR and CO
look like real gold to me for the GOP.  IL and DE I think we probably hold.  CT I just don't know what to think.  I was feeling good until latest Quinnipiac poll.
[ Parent ]
Bennet is raising big money
And I don't think Lincoln should be written off at all. Illinois should be fine but I think Dodd will probably have to hang it up.  
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Arkansas has a lot in common with the deep south and the Democrats have managed to dominate there for longer than they probably should have.  I can see Arkansas as a bloodbath in 2010 with Lincoln and one or more congressmen losing.  The one bright spot is having the VERY popular Gov. Beebe at the top of the ballot.  A lot of ballots will have to be split in order for Lincoln, Berry or Snyder to be defeated.
[ Parent ]
Oh she is in big trouble no doubt
But her polling isn't as bad as Dodd and Reid.
[ Parent ]
How vulnerable do you think Bennet is to the primary challenge from Romanoff?
I think Romanoff may have ruined any chance he may have had in the Democratic primaries by running to Bennet's right on so-called "card check."
[ Parent ]
probably not vulnerable at all now
since the only way Romanoff would've had a backing is if he had run to the left...the left are the only ones who had an immediate negative reaction to Bennett.

Bennett's from Denver, so geographically there's nothing Romanoff has over him.

This appears to be mainly an establishment vs. not thing...Romanoff and his supporters are upset Ritter picked a non-establishment candidate for the seat and not an establishment Dem, like Romanoff.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Romanoff doesn't seem to really be offering much of a reason to vote for him over Bennett for Dem primary voters. Other than, essentially, "I should've been appointed and who is this Bennett guy anyway?"

Still, Bill Ritter is a frakkin' idiot. That is what this also proves. Romanoff was a popular term-limited House Speaker who happened to need a job right when the seat becomes available and Ritter picks a competent but colorless technocrat who's never run for office and was already being put to good use trying to turn around Denver's still-crappy schools. Dumb.

[ Parent ]
Romanoff screwed up there
now all Bennet needs to do is to say that he is open to card check and Romanoff is finished.
[ Parent ]
Ditto
That's my thinking about Delaware.  For Castle to even have a shot at winning the primary he will have to continue his rightward whift which hurts his general election chances.

I would not be shocked one bit if Castle drops out in early 2010 and just retires.

I agree that CT, IL and DE are probably fools gold for the GOP.  But Arkansas and Colorado certainly are not.  I am very worried aboutthose two, along with Nevada.

[ Parent ]
Yep Reid and Dodd are most problematic
I am very interested to see the latest polling out of Nevada since he started running ads. I imagine he gulped a little more than most when Corzine lost. No way he drops out though. I can totally see Dodd doing the right thing mind.
[ Parent ]
Ya, Dodd always struck me as a team player
He's one Senator I could see bowing to pressure and retiring.  Though I do think even Dodd has a 50/50 shot at worst against Simmons.  Simmons has a long voting record from his house career and he went along with Bush on almsot everything.  All people outside of CT-02 know of Simmons right now is that he's not Dodd.  Once they realize how conservative he is his numbers should fall off greatly.
[ Parent ]
I think the bigger problem is
He is losing to no-names. He still has a little time though. I do think the Corzine factor is going to weigh heavily here more than anywhere else.
[ Parent ]
Kos Pointed Out...
...The registration advantages we have in NV a couple weeks ago. If Reid can shore up the left, he can win without much trouble. The PO gambit was a good start on that.

Still think he'd be best served by stepping down from the Leadership post and concentrating on pork. But he can definitely pull this off.

[ Parent ]
Can't argue
Though that does sound a lot like Jersey. On the plus side I don't think it would take much of an improvement in the national political environment for prospects to brighten in many of these seats. NV, CT, CO, IL, DE, PA - Obama won them all by at least 9 points. And their seats are purple at worst - MO, NC, OH. New Hampshire is in the former category.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, the NJ Analogy is Apt...
...though Reid's at least got more warning, I think.

I also really question if Reid has committed a "fireable offense". I think Corzine did, probably a couple times, but Reid has so far just seemed a little incapable of really bringing the hammer down on his caucus. That doesn't seem like enough reason for him to not be a Senator at all, though.

[ Parent ]
I'm beginning to sound like a broken record
but the solution to all these problems is for Congress to get some things accomplished.  Doing so will get the Dem base excited and give independents some reassurance that things are being accomplished.
My second suggestion is to trot out George W Bush again to remind people who bad things were.
[ Parent ]
Bush is useful
But passing HCR is crucial. Then move to jobs and concentrate on that next year, all year. The economy is already improving on every measure except employment and that always comes back last. I still maintain by next summer things won't look half as bad. Health care probably won't even be a salient issue just as Iraq wasn't by the time 2008 rolled around. Nobody would have said that in November 2007.
[ Parent ]
You're Not Wrong
Just doing stuff is popular in the short term, before we're able to see if it works or not.

Fortunately, I think we'll see some accomplishments soon. HCR appears to be on a rail- it can only go one way, the only question is when. Financial reform and the jobs bill are going to be hard to argue against, then climate change, which I think has a really easy compromise (though we'll see if they use it...).

The problem is passing all of this before the summer, when everyone will shut down. But if even a couple things get knocked off that list, there's going to be good accomplishments to run on, and a noticeable uptick for the Dems.

[ Parent ]
I think we'll all breathe easier in Nevada
when Sharon Angle wins the right to get destroyed by Harry Reid.
[ Parent ]
If Reid doesn't pass health care
he could lose even to Angle.  Although Angle may be portrayed as so extremist, that it might cause the Dem base to come out.  

Reid is right now seen by Nevadans as the leader as the Senate, not a Nevada senator.  And from their perspective, he has done nothing for them.  The question is whether he can turn around that perception.

[ Parent ]
Reid is doing bio spots
I know I'm repeating myself - but I saw nothing but Reid bio spots on TV last week - as if Harry's a relative unknown in NV. As someone pointed out, there are a lot of new voters in that state, but the last R2K poll had 12% with no opinion of him. http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

Either R2K is understating his unknowns (which seems possible with the number of new voters in NV), or something is seriously amiss with the Reid campaign. (Or I'm missing some other element.)

[ Parent ]
Not at all.
   Reid just has tons of cash to burn.  Without a real opponent he can only talk about himself.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
If health care reform and financial reform passes
the only Democratic seat that will be lost will be Arkansas.  And even that is not a given, IMO.

I think that if the Dem base turns out, we will hold Connecticut and Colorado.  Same with Nevada, although, I think Reid is a goner if he doesn't pass health care.  Dodd and Bennet would be in trouble, but I wouldn't say they're gone if health care doesn't pass.

I can't see the GOP winning IL or DE even in a bad 2010.  It would have to be another 1994 before the GOP has a chance there.

[ Parent ]
Regarding Beau's timeline
I believe he's said that he'll decide by January.
[ Parent ]
What's his military situation?
I believe he has been in Iraq or some other warzone.  Is he expected to be stateside throughout 2010 for a tough campaign?
[ Parent ]
He got back from Iraq in October,
and has no other deployments scheduled.
[ Parent ]
GOPs best Senate prospects
are NV and CO with AR and CT at 50/50.  But it is still very early and much could change.  Especially, if the econmomy continues to improve and is substantially better by next Nov.  As they say, a rising tide raises all boats, or something like that.
What an unforced error CO was
I appreciate that Bennett is fundraising like a madman and I thought the New Yorker profile on his education work in Denver was fascinating, but appointing a charisma-impaired conservative Dem who's never held elective office to a Senate seat in a purple state is just asking for trouble. it continues to astound me that Bennet was picked, regardless of how much bad blood there is between Hickenlooper and Ritter.
[ Parent ]
Indeed
But I think he will end up ok. I have CO behind AR at the moment in fourth spot. My list is roughly CT, NV, AR, CO, PA, DE, IL then a gap to CA, ND and NY, the latter two depending on Repub recruiting.
[ Parent ]
I have two lists
If health care and other stuff (fin reg, jobs package) is passed:
AR, small gap, CO, CT, NV, big gap, PA, DE, IL, etc.

If health care is not passed:

NV, CO, AR, CT, small gap, DE, IL, PA.

The two races where I see very little change if health care is passed or not are AR and PA.  For the rest of the seats, it will be a big boost for the Dems.

[ Parent ]
I'm working on the assumption
Something passes. If it doesn't all bets are off. They simply have to come to an agreement. If they don't then IMO both the left and right of the party will be equally to blame and deserve what comes to pass.
[ Parent ]
I agree
And I strongly want a public option, but it's electoral implications are badly exaggerated by the left.  I'm sorry, but people care more about insurance companies not being able to discriminate due to preexisting conditions, extention of medacaid and adequate subsidies more than they care about getting a public option enacted.  Heck, the public option they are talking about is badly watered down and would only be offered to a small number of Americans anyway.  The important thing is geeting a good bill through.
[ Parent ]
Health care losing would be good in many places
If health care goes down, I would not want to be a republican in a purple district.
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
They won't be to blame. It is all on the Democrats with their majorities. No bill means they can't govern. I would love to be a Republican running in a purple district in that scenario.
[ Parent ]
Right now
I'd put the races:

Dem seats:
Tossup - AR,NV,CO,CT
Lean D - DE,IL
Likely D - PA

Rep seats:
Lean D - MO
Tossup - NH,OH
Lean R - NC,KY
Likely R - FL,LA,TX

Gawd I wish Melancon would reconsider his quixotic attempt at the Senate and run for re-election...

[ Parent ]
My thoughts
If Dems pass health care:

Dem seats:
Tossup-AR
Lean D-CO,CT,NV
Likely D-PA,DE,IL

R seats
Lean D-MO,OH
Tossup-NH
Lean R-NC, FL (if Rubio wins)
Likely R-KY

If Dems don't pass health care:

Dem seats:
Lean R-NV
Tossup-CO,AR,CT
Lean D-DE,IL
Likely D-PA

R seats
Tossup-MO,OH,NH
Lean R-
Likely R-NC, FL (if Rubio wins)

[ Parent ]
Yes
I do get the feeling that 2010 will be more of a status quo election with far fewer incumbents losing than 2006 and 2008.  
[ Parent ]
I think that will be the case outside the South
and in the South I think it will be a GOP tsunami taking down some long time Dem incumbents.  
That is, assuming that the Dems have a few accomplishments like health care reform.
[ Parent ]
Yep
Which is why it is widely assumed Dems will lose a good many house seats but very few, if any senate seats.  Lincoln holds the only Dem Senate seat up for re-election in the entire southeast.
[ Parent ]
Only that HCR is likely to hurt
More than help in the South.
[ Parent ]
These are base elections
Indies don't vote in big numbers in off-year elections.  All anti-HCF candidates do is hurt base turnout.  
[ Parent ]
I don't really buy that
The Snyder poll suggests otherwise. And I go back again to 1994 when Dems opposing the budget and the assault weapons ban all survived while many supporting both or at least one went down to defeat. Sure it hurts base turnout but in much of the South the base isn't enough to win an election.
[ Parent ]
The best case scenario for many Southern Dems
is that the bill passes without their vote.
[ Parent ]
Agreed

[ Parent ]
Snyder does have to worry though
about pleasing a base, because Little Rock is a reasonably sized base.  AR-2 is the least conservative district in Arkansas, but it is less Democratic than AR-1 or AR-4.  Gore won the latter ones in 2000, but lost AR-2.  AR-2 was Obama's best performance by far.
[ Parent ]
It is such a fine needle to thread
Such is the beauty of electoral politics and why we all love it so much.
[ Parent ]
Marjorie Margolies-Mezvensky keeps going through my head

[ Parent ]
Oh there were plenty others
Believe me.
[ Parent ]
oh I know
but she was sorta the covergirl of the 1994 elections...when she voted for Clinton's budget, the Republicans cheered and Robert Walker (R-PA) supposedly told her "Goodbye Marjorie"

Here was a woman, elected in a district Clinton won, who lost her seat because a vote in support of the man who won her district. It doesn't make any sense whatsoever.  

[ Parent ]
Jon Fox, the guy who beat her,
was basically an idiot, and he didn't last two terms.

MMM did the right thing and paid with her political career. Demographically, the old 13th was very similar to Leslie Byrne's VA-11. It included most of Philadelphia's wealthiest suburbs, including the Maine Line (a la Philadelphia Story).  

[ Parent ]
Er, *Main Line

[ Parent ]
Clinton barely won the district
with Perot taking a very large chunk.  The district by no means in 1992 was a Democratic bastion, rather a majority of registered voters there were Repub.

[ Parent ]
I know that which is why I predict
that 2010 will be a GOP tsunami in the South no matter what.

If health care is not passed, you risk a GOP tsunami outside the South as well.

[ Parent ]
I don't think there is any doubt
The situation in the South will be worse that elsewhere whatever happens.
[ Parent ]
There are only 5 Dems in the House
whom I think hurt themselves with a yes vote.  Those are Tom Perriello, John Spratt, Vic Snyder, Mike McInytre, and Marion Berry.  This is not to say that others who voted for the bill won't lose, but they would have lost anyway even if they voted no.

McInytre and Berry are safe.  Perriello is probably gone, sadly.  Snyder is a tossup, IMO, and Spratt will be one too if his GOP opponent is not a total loser.

[ Parent ]
Probably
But that just goes to what I've been saying - some of the no Reps on HCR and other contentious votes will survive because they bucked the party. I think the loses will be a mix - some people in heavily Republican districts will go down whatever they do but more will lose in purple to light red districts simply for supporting the Democratic agenda.
[ Parent ]
McInytre voted yes?
I thought he was a no.  
[ Parent ]
You're right
he was a no.  He would have won anyway, even if he was a yes.
[ Parent ]
Etheridge was the yes from my state
no McIntyre.  Etheridge is safe as well.
[ Parent ]
What do you think about Kissell?
He said it was because he disagreed with the Medicare cuts though, which is a different reason than most of the other Dems who voted against it gave. But last year and in 2006 he had a lot of grassroots support both nationally and from within NC. He made a lot of people (including the Democrats who worked to help elect him in the first place) angry by voting against HCR and I think it hurt more than helped him next year. He doesn't have a really strong opponent and his district is a lot more Democratic than many others in the South, it went for Obama 53-47 and it is very local on the local level (state legislators, statewide races, etc.). I think his HCR vote may have hurt more than helped him, what is your opinion?
[ Parent ]
Very **Democratic** on the local level

[ Parent ]
Medicare cuts is a BS answer
There are no medicare cuts.  It's a republican talking point that is complete fiction.  I imaagine Kissel is just using it as a convenient excuse to vote nay.
[ Parent ]
Kissell should have voted for it
I don't think a yes vote would have hurt him, although he could well lose if there is low turnout in the Charlotte part of the district, because the rest of the district is rural.

Obama won the district by 17K, but he won the Mecklenburg part (about 17% of the district) of the district by 26K.  

I'd put NC-8 as a tossup if the GOP can come up with a decent second-tier opponent.  It is lean Dem without one.


[ Parent ]
JSmith, what do you think
The chances are of holding the NC House (currently 68D-52R) and the NC Senate (30D-20R) next year? The governor has no control or veto power over redistricting, so the legislature elected in 2010 will draw the state and congressional maps for the next ten years, making these elections very important.
[ Parent ]
I looked at the House seats recently
there are 3 in very red areas, assume we'll lose them.  There are another 7 in slightly red areas (+3 R or less in the PVI for NC).  My initial guess is that we'll probably hold the House barely.

I haven't looked at the Senate closely to be honest.  7 Dems and 3 Repubs won by less than 10% in 2008.  There are 5-6 in rural non-black districts, but I'm not sure how GOP they are, I'd be most concerned about the ones in rural Eastern NC.

If I had to guess, we'll barely hold the two chambers, but it will be close.  Very close.

[ Parent ]
Eastern NC example: Dare County
It's the heart of Walter "Freedom Fries" anti-Iraq war Jones' district. One thing that surprised me is how well Ds there do on the local/state levels -

they still dominate the county/state offices - while it still went for McCain 55/44. (In '04 it went for Bush 60/40).

Yes, Dare includes the Outer Banks, but most of the voting population is a bit inland.

That suggests to me that rural NC voters still split tix - nationally R, but local/state D.

[ Parent ]
Or rather thay have in the past
It is very questionable that they will continue that split in 2010.  It is the same phenomenon that happened in 2006 and 2008 in the Northeast, when many of those center-left voters who has split tickets for a long time suddenly became party-line Democratic voters.
[ Parent ]
Do you have any evidence w/r/t eastern NC?
It really felt like split mindsets w/r/t the way they vote in elections. While Dare Co got their first R (1 of 5) in '02, and Rs there haven't made any progress since.

I could see what you're saying in the interior/appalachain south (the areas where McCain did better than Bush) - but I believe eastern/coastal NC (and VA) is different.  

[ Parent ]
Periello was F'd either way
Same with Kratovil in MD-01 and Minnick in ID-01.  I'd rather both of them just voted for HCR.  They are going to lose (probably badly) either way.  And even if Kratovil loses he's better off going for a progressive record.  That way he can run again in 2012 when MD-01 is gerrymandered into a Dem seat.
[ Parent ]
Bingo:
Does Kratovil want to set himself up for a rematch or retirement?  
[ Parent ]
I don't think Kratovil is finished in 2010
especially if the opposition is Andy Harris.  Kratovil voted for cap-and-trade, which is probably not that unpopular on the Eastern Shore, Gilchrest probably would have done so too.

Minnick, same thing.  If Bill Sali wins the primary, Minnick will survive, otherwise probably not.  

Perriello, unfortunately is probably done either way.  Obviously, my dream is that an avalanche of grassroots money to him will save him, but I doubt even that will be enough.

I'm getting the sense that the GOP establishment wants to see Alan Grayson reelected, so they can use him as a response to Dems whenever Bachmann or Wilson talks some crap.  Maybe you Chad, being from Florida, can give more insight into why every top tier GOP opponent of Grayson has declined to run.

[ Parent ]
Grayson
Has to be polling numbers.  I'll bet the GOP has done internal numbers for top-tier candidates and the news turned out good for Grayson.  That district is now Dem-leaning and I'll bet his approvals are very good because of his forcefulness, despite what the GOP tries to say publicly.  That's just my hunch.  I can't see any other reason for the entire top-tier GOP bench in the 8th district passing.

I live in FL-24 but work in FL-08.  Many of my co-workers live in FL-08 and really like Grayson for his outspokenness.  And my co-workers are not a very liberal bunch.

Thing is, unlike Bachmann what Grayson says is factually correct.  It's very hard for the media to go after the guy other than saying he's "over the top" or "confrontational."  Bachmann on the other hand just makes shit up, which is why it's easy to call her on it.

[ Parent ]
He does not appeal only to left-wingers.
  I keep telling people this, but no one believes me.  His commercials in 2006 championed his fight against government waste.  He's loud and angry.  Non-ideological White independents just eat that shit up.  He's also reached out to a contingent of Paultards by cosponsoring the bill which calls for an audit of the Fed.  And yet he still has unanimous support from base Democrats because of his stances on basically every other issue.  It's a funny coalition, but it's a real one.  

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
Yeah, he wasn't running as just as leftie
but my worry is that now he will only appeal to left-wingers.

[ Parent ]
Yep
I work in the financial industry where many people dislike the Fed and like Grayson partly for his pushing for an audit of it.
[ Parent ]
My own view dovetails with yours Chad, in that...
...I have a hard time dismissing so many A-list and B-list challengers declining to run against Grayson, and I think Rothenberg and other pundits are making a big mistake in not taking a closer look at why.  They just assume that anyone who runs against Grayson will give him a tough race, and while that MIGHT be true, the fact is you don't see this many people decline a challenge in a top-tier pickup opportunity unless they're scared off by something they see that Rothenberg et al. don't see.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
He's also an amazing campaigner
I'm sure everyone here remembers his 2008 campaign.  He started out as a big underdog against seasoned politicians like 2006 nominee Stuart.  Even on primary day I didn't think Grayson had a chance in hell.  He not only won but won big.  Then a lot of people considered him a weak general election candidate and he surprised yet again with some of 2008's best campaign ads.
[ Parent ]
Bill Hillsman, who did the ads, is suing him
for unpaid bills.  
[ Parent ]
Completely
I was hoping Tancredo would be the guy to run for Senate giving us an easy win but it looks like he's going for Gov instead.

In any case should Tancredo get their nomination for Gov it will probably help Dems turn out to vote against him.

[ Parent ]
If tancredo is on any statewide ballot, it wil help us down ballot.
[ Parent ]
Hispanics
They will flood the polls like never before if he gets on the ballot statewide.  But god help Colorado if the fool actually got elected.  You'd probably have a mass exodus of people leaving that state if he were Governor.
[ Parent ]
That would be a serious boon for Ritter
because it would get out the Dem base for free, when Ritter has given them the finger several times.

I don't think Tancredo is electable even in another 1994.

[ Parent ]
Me neither
I suspect voters would hold their nose and re-elect Ritter by something like a 10-15 point margin.  Heck, repubs had a solid Colorado Gov candidate in 2006 and lost in a landslide.
[ Parent ]
It is not surprising
Ritter has been an absymal governor, and he regularly relishes pissing off the base, for example, by vetoing labor bills.

The unforced error began in 2006 when the Democrats in Colorado were unable to find another taker for a Governor's race which was clearly going to be won by the Democrat.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Castle can beat Biden statewide
He is polling under 50% in Sussex county and only ahead by 2% in Kent county. You have to win both of these counties by at least 10% to 15% to get to 50% statewide.

Join the facebook group to draft Beau Biden!
http://www.facebook.com/home.p...

I think everyone is missing WHY Beau Biden is surging......
To put is simply, he's back from Iraq and visible in the state again.

It's awful hard to maintain one's own public image if you're invisible.  I'm sure a lot of people were aware in the back of their minds that Beau was serving in Iraq and honor that in the abstract, but if you've got an elected official who's an absentee for any reason, that seeps into the public consciousness by making people dismiss him.  And giving a double-bounce is that Beau isn't just back on people's radar screen, but BACK FROM IRAQ, which I assume has been in the news in the Delaware media.  So there are warm feelings for him.

You can't just look at this Susquehanna poll, you have to see that there's a clear trend with Rasmussen and DailyKos/R2K showing a similarly close race, after spring polling showed Castle ahead by varying margins.

The only thing that's changed to cause this trend for Beau Biden is that he returned from Iraq.

And I'm skeptical the health care vote mattered too much to hurt Castle.  Most people nationwide are very confused by the health care legislative initiative, as it's too complex with too many drastically different competing bills out there to understand the issue and "favor" any particular bill.  Only real junkies like us even TRY to follow it closely, and many of us still don't understand a lot of it.  And on top of all that, a single vote on a single bill, even a major one, this far from an election just doesn't register too strongly with most people.  That doesn't mean this can't be used against Castle later because it can, but it's part of defining Castle negatively which hasn't happened yet and I seriously doubt is happening on its own.  This Susquehanna poll didn't show favorability or job approval ratings for Castle or Biden, but I have a hard time believing Castle's have taken a hit yet over health care or anything else.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

Final bill is what matters
If Biden votes down the final bill, which will probably be more moderate, he will be in big trouble for the general election in 2010.  If he votes for it he will be in trouble with republicans and be at serious risk for a primary.  Either way he's screwed on his HCR bill.
[ Parent ]
You mean Castle
not Biden. Biden won't be voting on anything.
[ Parent ]
Yes
My mistake.  Was referring to Castle's vote.  

And I think Biden's background is well suited for running in 2010.  If he were just some nobody leeching off his daddy's fame people could claim nepotism.  But the fact that he's accomplished a lot (including a solid military record) in his own right reflects well.

[ Parent ]
Agree w/both of your comments, Chad, except on one point......
I don't think Castle can lose a primary.  I think some of us on the left are exaggerating the power of the hard right in primaries...everyone is just so giddy about Hoffman in NY-23, some people are getting carried away.  There are still plenty of pragmatic conservatives around who understand that in blue states a down-the-line-conservative nominee can't win.  I doubt anyone can rough up Castle in a Republican primary.

That said, I think Castle is in deep trouble to have the polling trending AGAINST him while national polling trends more favorably to Republicans.  He should do no worse than hold steady at a time like this, but he's struggling.  I never believed the 21-point Castle lead over Biden was sustainable, we all knew Biden would come back, but I doubt anyone would have guessed Biden would charge back so quickly while the national winds go against us.  If Castle isn't clearly winning now, there's a plausible chance he might not even be competitive come next summer and fall.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
I would ask
when the last time he ran a race was? Because a couple of years ago the rumor was that he was sick and looking to retire. I don't know if he really has a slog in him.
[ Parent ]
If he voted in a way
to keep him viable in the general, I think he can absolutely lose a primary.  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but...
The teabaggers don't have to actually be able to beat him in a primary to hurt him. They can stay home, too. In a race like this, he really can't afford to leave any part of the conservative coalition to its own devices.

So he's still got the same dillema.

[ Parent ]
Castle is safe in a primary
Although Kent and Sussex Counties are very rural and conservative in some parts, the bulk of the Delaware GOP comes from the pro-business folks in New Castle County.  Mike's been around too long to get upended in a primary.  Plus, I don't think national organizations like Club for Growth or the 9/12 Project will be targeting the guy, which won't allow a wingnut to get any real resources.  Castle's electability though is based on how much Democrats have voted for him in the past.  The more polarized the environment, both locally and nationally, the more likely he will lose as it will only further drive Democrats and D-leaning Independents (of which there's quite a bit in Delaware).
[ Parent ]
I think there's another reason, too
And that's that Castle's candidacy is no longer a hypothetical, it's real. So long as he's not running, it's easy to say you'd vote for him. You probably haven't thought about it much, he seems nice enough, and I'm frustrated with everyone else, so give someone new a shot.

But once he declares, you have to confront the fact that he might actually BE a Senator. So you wonder if you'd actually like what he does, and you remember that you're a little to the left ('cause you live in DE) and he's a little to the right, and suddenly, you're not so sure. And then this Biden kid, well, you voted for him and his dad before, and they both seem nice too, and agree with you a little more...

Anyway, that's my thought. As a Biden/Castle race becomes more and more real, the voters will break more and more to Biden.

I Hope!

[ Parent ]
Castle getting into the race
could potentially be a great thing for Beau in the long-run, assuming he wins (and I've always believed that he would prevail in a contest with Castle, as these numbers begin to suggest).  No surer way to fight off charges that he didn't earn it than by vanquishing the absolute strongest candidate the Republicans could put forward.
CNN Exit poll: Castle vs. Hartley-Nagle
Vote by Party ID
Total               Hartley-Nagle    Castle  
Democrat   (48%)      62%      38%      
Republican (31%)      10%      90%      
Independent(20%)      36%      64%
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
For all the election math junkies out there
In order to have unseated Castle last fall
all the Dem opponent would have to do in perform 20% better among dems (82% to 18%) with the margins for indies and GOP being the same. Meaning that Castle probably could have been unseated last fall had Jack Markell or John Carney ran against him. Beau Biden can absolutely accomplish this and thus I think this seat should be lean D.
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle | 118 comments

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