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DE-Sen: Master of His Domain?

by: James L.

Tue May 05, 2009 at 3:31 PM EDT


Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (4/27-30, registered voters):

Beau Biden (D): 34
Mike Castle (R): 55
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.3%)

Numbers like these are the sort of thing that may nudge Castle into actually making a race of it, but bear in mind that Susquehanna is the same Republican firm that put out a somewhat dodgy-looking PA-Sen poll yesterday, so perhaps a grain of salt is merited here. A poll conducted in March by the much more reputable Public Policy Polling also had Castle leading Biden, Jr., but only by 44-36.

UPDATE: It also just occurs to me that Susquehanna is the same firm that released a poll last fall showing Democratic Rep. John Murtha leading his no-name Republican challenger by only five points. Murtha went on to win by 16 points in November.
James L. :: DE-Sen: Master of His Domain?
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DE-Sen: Master of His Domain? | 35 comments
Adjusted for inflation
Probably about dead even.  About as expected.  Doubt Castle would have much chance.  
This one I'm tempted to believe
Castle is quite popular in Delaware. He ran ahead of McCain by a LOT last year.  
Baloney
Biden leads among Democrats only by a 52% - 36% margin, however.

They aren't even trying to make their numbers seem realistic.  A Biden winning Dems in Delaware by a 16 point margin?  That's beyond laughable.

[ Parent ]
BB barely won his race for AG in '06
If he's going to win this race, he'll need lots of help from the President.

I don't think he's the best candidate. It should have been Carney.  

[ Parent ]
I doubt that Carney
would do any better.  Castle would be a formidable challenge to either.
[ Parent ]
Possibly
The only thing really going against Castle is his age.
[ Parent ]
and his health
   I have no ill will towards the guy (not that I would vote for Castle) but he has also had major health problems (a stroke IIRC)...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
two minor strokes, but seems fully recovered
according to Wiki.
However, on this point, if Castle couldn't serve out the 6 years, his replacement (not to be morbid) would likely be a Dem appointed by the Dem Gov.  
So all is not lost here.
[ Parent ]
And his vote against the stimulus
And his weak fundraising.

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.
[ Parent ]
It's Castle's race to lose
The bullshit placeholder nonsense will backfire if Castle runs.  This is easily the most delusional race so far (except Bunning).  Castle is for sure favored, though Biden certainly has a chance to win.
[ Parent ]
Beleive it
While I think there is something wrong with this poll, do not discount Castle. He is just loved in the state. WHy? I have no idea, he is not moderate, is very awkward and not personable, and its past his prime. I'm also not a fan of Beau running either, I would rather see someone else run.
Why Castle might be loved
He was governor of the state from '85 to '93 and was apparently very popular.
[ Parent ]
In terms of polling this race
I think Biden v. Castle would be a real dogfight.

At this stage, though, Biden's not even in-country.  Expect his return to the US to get a media blitz, with a lot of interviews, etc.

Maybe we won't
gain Senate seats in 2010 after all

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
Oh come on
PA, CT, CO and DE are not even in the same ballpark of competitiveness as OH, MO, NH, KY and NC.  In a disasterous 2010 scenario we'd pickup about 2 seats.
[ Parent ]
We're behind in New Hamsphire
against Sununu, Fisher and Brunner aren't fundraising well in Ohio, Bunning may bow out in Kentucky.

If everything goes right for the Republicans, they get the right candidates and Bunning gets out, they could certainly pick up seats.

But also remember that in 2006 and 2008, recruiting woes hurt the Republicans too. If Hoeven had run in '06 or '08 in North Dakota, Mike Rounds against Johnson in South Dakota, Rehberg in Montana against Baucus, Huckabee against Pryor in Arkansas, Bush against Nelson in Florida in 2006, we may not have the majority we have today.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Says who?
A garbage Granite State poll does not make Hodes behind.  

In Ohio Portman is basically a running joke.  He's never going to get any traction once the ads tying him to Dubya blast the airwaves.

Kentucky is probably a tossup even without Bunning running.

I'd give anyone 15-1 odds to bet me republicans see a net gain in Senate seats in 2010.  

[ Parent ]
How about 50-1?
I might take you on those odds.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Right about OH
Portman will not prevail against either Brunner or Fisher. His pro-free trade stands will kill him in NE Ohio and Toledo(and possibly the OH river counties), and his social conservatism won't help him in Columbus. I have a feeling Brunner might drop out if her fundraising doesn't pick up, but even if she doesn't, I think the primary will help our side. Portman is 2010's Mark Kennedy (a seemingly competitive candidate who ends up losing in a blowout). As for Fisher (and Brunner's) being low...um, it's May 2009. The election isn't for another 18 months. A couple Obama fundraisers (for the primary winner) will take care of any money woes.

KY may be tougher w/o Bunning, but we still have a shot even against Grayson.

BTW, nrafter, what happened? You're sounding like BillNolan.

[ Parent ]
good point and if we had some ham...and we had some eggs - we could have ham and eggs

[ Parent ]
Would you like them green?
I had Green Eggs and Ham in kindergarten! They were regular ham and eggs dyed green, and we had them after we read the book.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
SHUT UP!
Said did I, and everyone I've talked and mentioned that to were like wtf?  Awesome.
[ Parent ]
Thank you
In a neutral setting, we pick up 4 to 5 seats.  The Republicans have a lot of incredibly poor positions to defend (one or two House votes for the stimulus would have done nothing but removed a lot of the monolithic "party of no.")

Besides, if things look bad in Colorado or Connecticut, Democrats are likely to ditch the incumbent for a stronger candidate.

[ Parent ]
Or in Pennsylvania

[ Parent ]
Don't Panic!
[ Parent ]
Could be Biden overkill, but I doubt it
I'm a huge Joe Biden fan so I don't believe in Biden overkill, but to be honest with you I would have a hard time voting against Castle too because of the way he was out in front on stem cell research.  I guess I'm just glad I don't live in Delaware in this situation.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Two Obama/Biden/Biden campaign rallies
And Beau would probably wipe the floor with Castle.  Castle probably knows this.  Doubt he actually runs for anything in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Todd Beeton at MyDD
claims it's a rejection of nepotism

http://www.mydd.com/story/2009...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Baloney
Nepotism is as American as apple pie.  It almost always helps a candidate rather than hurts.  Especially so when the person in question has the ear of the Vice President.
[ Parent ]
That's stupid
there isnt any nepotism involved in a fair and free election.  If Beau had been appointed, well sure, but he wasn't and he's running an election.
[ Parent ]
I don't believe there is either
It was a semi-snark.  Just saying that nepotism isn't even looked down upon by ordinary voters as nrafter seems to think.  If Beau runs and wins the Senate seat (which is likely) it will be on his own merit, though having the last name Biden will have helped.
[ Parent ]
I meant that's stupid
to the MYDD guy.  
[ Parent ]
I suspect you're right Chad
If I were Beau however I'm not even sure I would want the seat because people may scream nepotism although Beau does have a record of accomplishment of his own I'm sure.  I haven't really followed his term as AG.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Biden needs to run 'scared' and ...
...not take ANYTHING for granted.  It's a tiny state, shake everyone's hand at least once and remind them of the importance of seniority long term.  

Remember the OUT party USUALLY picks up seats.  The math advantage helps offset that, but the political landscape can change a lot in 18 months. it is possible that Democrats hold only 60-62 seats after 2010.    

I'm agreeing that we shouldn't be too optimistic
and we should treat Castle seriously until he bows out.

Now, if he bows out and gets back in, that's another story.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Master of His Domain? | 35 comments

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