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Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 1

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 6:33 PM EST


8:37PM: This thread is getting a bit full, so please join us just above in a new thread.
8:31PM: The New York Times has a good New Jersey results page.
8:26PM: Seems that we might have a tally of some early votes in Jersey.
8:19PM: Looks like votes are about to start trickling in in Maine.
8:10PM: So South Carolina had a special election in HD-48 tonight. Results are here, though oddly no totals are displayed on the bottom. Excel says that the Dem is getting destroyed, though, 1,731 to 719.
8:08PM: Stick a fork in Creigh -- all the major media outlets are now calling VA-Gov for McDonnell.
8:00PM: Polls have now closed in a whole bunch of states with key races.
7:55PM: Looks like Virginia Dems are on pace to lose at least one seat in the General Assembly tonight -- take a look at HD-03, where incumbent Democratic Del. Danny Bowling is getting trashed by a 58-42 margin with 71% of the precincts reporting.
7:52PM: We're also trailing badly in the VA Lt. Gov. and AG races. The Dem numbers in those races are pretty similar to Deeds', so I wouldn't expect much divergence even as better precincts come in.
7:41PM: No results yet in Georgia, where the Atlanta mayor's race is hotly contested. Apparently, there have been polling problems.
7:38PM: Polls also just closed in North Carolina, where we have a couple of interesting mayoral races tonight.
7:30PM: Results are trickling in in Virginia, and Creigh Deeds is getting spanked with about 5% of the vote in. (Did you expect anything else?) Of greater interest tonight will be Virginia's Assembly races. Johnny Longtorso has a great, SSP-style ratings chart you can consult.
Here are some sites for returns in some of tonight's key races:

Virginia: Board of Elections | Virginian-Pilot

New Jersey: NJ.com

New York: State Board of Elections

Maine: Bangor Daily News | WMTW-TV

Georgia: AJC

Charlotte, NC: Mecklenburg BoE

Chapel Hill, NC: WRAL

Virginia closes in about half an hour (and so too does our predictions contest!). But feel free to start using this thread for tailgating and chitchat. Got any reliable links for up-to-the-minute results? Let us know in comments, and we'll add them to the list.
Crisitunity :: Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 1
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Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 1 | 170 comments
I'm annoyed
I have a class starting at 9 ET (I'm in the Mountain time zone so 7:00 here) so I'm probably only going to get to see a few of the early returns (and I can't ditch the class either, damned Philosophy of Religion :P).

I'll be shocked if Deeds gets within single digits in Virginia, which is pretty disappointing considering that Virginia is becoming a swing state (I'm really disappointed with Deeds's lackluster campaign in NoVa).

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

Hmm that leads me to think
How badly Deeds loses could tell us some information about turnout this election in other races. If he out does his poor polling, could we predict a more favorable electorate in other races? Hmmm... It is interesting to ponder, but practically  a bit useless as we are going to know the results in a few hours anyway.  
[ Parent ]
Not related to tonight but...
... an interesting KY Sen poll by SUSA.

http://www.whas11.com/communit...

On the GOP side Rand Paul leads Trey Greyon 35-32. For the Dems it's Danial Mongiardo 39% Jack Conway 28%

I really don't believe these polls
but is it possible that the Hoffman effect might propel Rand Paul?
[ Parent ]
Possible, but
Grayson isn't exactly a Scozzafava-type in terms of being offside with movement conservatives.
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but ...
... the teabagging nutjobs of the Redstate/Hoffman variety aren't exactly the same thing as the Paulistas.  Somewhat similar, but a discernably different flavor of crazy.
[ Parent ]
Rand
If Rand is anything like his dad on foreign policy, national security, drug laws and a federal marriage amendment he can forget about winning a KY GOP primary.  
[ Parent ]
Not so sure
national security and FMA, I agree with you.  But I'm not sure GOP voters today would care that much about a pro-drug legalization or an isolationist on foreign policy position.  
[ Parent ]
KY
KY has many evangelicals whom are very neoconservative on foreign policy as well as being very pro-drug legalization. But especially being extremely neo-con on foreign policy. I use to be one of them (although not in KY) and am still up to date on evangelicals' foreign policy beliefs and they are very passionate about it. But many rural evangelicals, I would imagine, are still Dem.
[ Parent ]
What the fuck?!?
After those tapes leaked, Conway still isn't winning?!?

And WTF is with Rand Paul?  Is there really that large a libertarian base in Kentucky?

In not complaining though, the polls show that any dem would smash Paul in the general.

Bill Hedrick for Congress

[ Parent ]
Exit Polls
Take it with several thousand grains of salt but according to a wingnut site here are some early exit polls.

http://www.freerepublic.com/fo...

First exit polls from Virginia: McDonnell 54.5, Deeds 45. And from New Jersey: Corzine 47, Christie: 47 with third-party candidate Daggett "barely registering."

House of Delegates
I'll be replying to this message with updates on the House of Delegates races.
Word

[ Parent ]
HD-3 starting out good
Dan Bowling (D) ahead 57-43 with the absentees counted. As long as he keeps the margin down in Tazewell, he will have come back from the political grave.
[ Parent ]
Or not
Bowling's getting killed in Tazewell. I don't see him surviving unless he narrows the margin there.
[ Parent ]
Bowling down by 15 points with half the precincts in
I'm going to project this as a pickup for the 25-year old Republican Will Morefield.
[ Parent ]
Losing it now
57.81-42.18 with 33% in. Down 62.64-37.35 in Tazewell. Up 60%-40% in Buchanan and Russell. Looks like it is going to go down to the wire.  
[ Parent ]
No chance to win
he's losing all three counties.  
[ Parent ]
HD 93 looking VERY good
Robin Abbott (D) is up 73-26 over Phil Hamilton (R) with the absentees in.

HD-99 not so much, Al Pollard (D) trails Catherine Crabill (R, Batshit Crazy) 45-55.

[ Parent ]
Can you do me (and maybe others) a favor
and indicate who, if any of the people you mention, are the incumbents?  I'd check myself, but I'm bouncing around a few different things, so only having to check this threat for lots of information is the best.

Thanks!! :-)

[ Parent ]
Sorry
Incumbents:

HD-3: Dan Bowling (D)
HD-93: Phil Hamilton (R)
HD-99: Al Pollard (D)

[ Parent ]
Pollard regained the lead
but Crazy Crabill is winning Northumberland County.
[ Parent ]
Abott up 62-37.5 with 26% in.

[ Parent ]
54-45 with 10/15 in
I think Abbott will win.
[ Parent ]
HD-23: Incumbent Shannon Valentine (D)
Starting out strongly, 2-1 margin over Scott Garrett (R) with the absentees counted.
[ Parent ]
Down to a razor-thin margin
51-49 with 9/22 precincts in.
[ Parent ]
She's up by 8 with 17/22 precincts in
I think she's going to pull through.
[ Parent ]
HD-10: Minority Leader Ward Armstrong (D)
has a middling 57-43 lead over a complete nobody opponent.
[ Parent ]
He's going to win
but he's lucky the Republicans didn't target him. 56.41% against a nobody opponent is pathetic.
[ Parent ]
HD-64: Incumbent Bill Barlow (D)
is currently ahead 53-44, but that's with Williamsburg and only part of Isle of Wight in.
[ Parent ]
Barlow is going to win
he's ahead everywhere that's reporting, the only county out is Southampton, which isn't big enough to swing it.
[ Parent ]
Oops, forgot about James City County
Not sure if that would be enough to swing it, though, since the challenger is from Isle of Wight and is losing there.
[ Parent ]
Now he's on track to win
Southampton and part of Surry are left and Barlow is leading by about 900 votes, so I think he's made it.
[ Parent ]
I thought these would be competitive but they're not:
(incumbents listed)

6th - Anne Crockett-Stark (R) wins easily.
7th - Dave Nutter (R) ahead 60-40.
13th - Bob Marshall (R) makes the Democrats waste $500k.
14th - Danny Marshall (R) crushed his competition.
17th - Bill Cleaveland (R) sweeps aside his opponent.
91st - Tom Gear (R) is walking away with it.

[ Parent ]
This was a really, really bad cycle to run as a Democratic challenger
very few are even breaking 40%.
[ Parent ]
Thank God the Senate wasn't
up this cycle.  It's our last grip on any sort of power in VA (and it is tenuous at that).
[ Parent ]
HD-21 - incumbent Bobby Mathieson (D)
is currently down 49-51 with 3/16 precincts in.

[ Parent ]
HD-51: Open R seat
Republican Rafael Lopez is 51-49 over Democrat Luke Torian with 9/19 precincts in.
[ Parent ]
Where is this in, btw?
Out of curiousity.
[ Parent ]
Prince William County
it's ex-Republican Party of Virginia chair Jeff Frederick's seat. Normally the district leans Democratic, but not in this election, apparently.
[ Parent ]
NJ
If that exit poll is right and its 47/47, Corzine has this due to the early voting being so heavily in his favor.

McDonnell "only" winning by 10 at this point might be good for us as as well down ticket.

We'll see for sure later on
but early exit polls seem to show Obama's approval numbers to be closer to that predicted by Research 2000, which would mean Democrats will at least not do as terrible as predicted by PPP and certainly gives the possibility of winning New Jersey.
Probably
a last day spike in voters who decided to turn out after all, which is why I think Owens has at least a decent chance of winning.  
[ Parent ]
Atlanta delay?
I noticed the Georgia Secretary of State's website lists polls closing at 8 in HD-58.  Much of this district's territory is in Atlanta.  Don't know if the delay applies to Atlanta, too.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Confirmed. Polls open in Atlanta until 8
http://www.ajc.com/news/electi...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Absentees (apparently) coming in
71-29 in favor of McDonnell.  Ouch.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Only 835 votes though
Any news on what turnout is expected to be?
[ Parent ]
according to AP, light to moderate in VA
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

Turnout in the race between Democrat R. Creigh Deeds and Republican Bob McDonnell was light to moderate across the state.

[ Parent ]
Remember Than In Virginia....
....the Shenandoah Valley area comes in first and Northern Virginia returns roll in last.  Prepare to see the first half hour's worth of returns to be a lopsided 62-38 or worse margin in favor of McDonnell.  Even with 90% of returns in, McDonnell's lead is likely to be about five percentage points higher than it will be with all 100% of the returns in.
I Distinctly Recall Last November....
....when Obama and McCain were tied with more than 85% of the Virginia vote in.  Then Obama went on to win by more than six points when the last 15% rolled in, almost all from Northern Virginia.  It was a similar trajectory in 2006 with Webb, who was significantly behind until the last 10% of returns rolled in.
[ Parent ]
yeah McD is gonna be up big at first
and then the margin should begin to dwindle down, probably why they won't call the race early.  
[ Parent ]
MSNBC: McDonnell up 2-to-1 among Indies
Survey USA had 60-35 in their last poll

[ Parent ]
Virginia's Indie voting base isn't as big
I think the Democratic Party has the larger share of the vote...and they went Deeds 94-6...at least the ones who voted.

The end result was young voters and African-American voters, Obama's base, didn't show up. The netroots crowd is going to say because they're upset with the ways the Democratic majority is performing (though it appears they like the President and Congress more than any other group)

I think this is a sign of the 2008 coalition being a one shot deal, we won't see them again until Obama is on the ballot again.  

[ Parent ]
There's no real defining the "Independent" demographic in Virginia
as there's no party registration.
[ Parent ]
Well "self described" is what I mean
in exit polls, the largest group are the self-described Democrats, then Republicans, then Independents.

[ Parent ]
Tsk
Netroots will say whatever fits their agenda.
[ Parent ]
They're half right
Deeds is losing because he failed to get out Obama's base, but that's not because he headed right (as the netroots are saying)

He could've headed right and gotten their vote, if he engaged them, he didn't, the campaign just assumed they wouldn't be there.

Maybe he was right, I suspect he might have been. I haven't seen any of my friends talk about voting today, like no one is even paying attention to it. Last year it was all about the election

and they all still feel the same way about Obama and the Democrats as they did a year ago.  

[ Parent ]
That doesn't match the polling
The polling all had more Repubs. Maybe much closer than we thought.
[ Parent ]
Probably
but interesting factor, exit polls have <30 goign 52%-46% to Deeds. Obama voters are voting for McD.  
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
turnout among 18-29 has dropped in half relative to 2008 electorate. From 20% to 9%. More likely than Obama supporters voting for McD it is the same McCain supporter voting for McD and Obama people not showing up.  
[ Parent ]
It's not being upset with the
way the Democratic majority is preforming.  This is not a national election.

The base was pissed at Deeds cause he was a crappy candidate and ran away from progressive positions.

[ Parent ]
More importantly he ran away from NoVA. n/t

[ Parent ]
Looking at last PPP
and this: "Voters, age 18-29, made up more than one in every five voters in 2008 (21%) in Virginia. This year, they made up just 10%. They broke 60%-39% for Obama, but just 53%-47% for Deeds.

By contrast, older voters (65+) made up more of the electorate this time around in Virginia. In 2008, voters 65 and older made up 11% of the electorate; in 2009, 21%. They broke for the Republican both times by similar margins -- in 2008, 53%-46% for John McCain; in 2009, 55%-45% for McDonnell."

18-29 was 9% (51-46 Deeds)
65+ was 22% (40-58 McDonnell)
Independents was 30% (33-63 McDonnell)
Topline: 42-56 McDonnell

It's a a bit better than PPP numbers, but indicating we are going to lose by 10-12%.  

[ Parent ]
Intrade
FWIW Intrade has Corzine surging up 15 to 65.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/int...

Exit polling?
Why the change?
[ Parent ]
Exit polling showing a tie race
if that's true, Corzine wins because he was up big among early voters.

Christie needs to win the votes cast today.  

[ Parent ]
Don't exit polling
normally take that into account in Presidential Elections? Would they not take that into account this election?
[ Parent ]
anyone know where to find election results
for the NC mayors races?
Try the site for one of the newspapers in one of the major cities


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Please post links
If you find any. Thanks.
[ Parent ]
OK, found some links
chapel hill mayor's race:
http://www.wral.com/ (election results are down a little ways on the right)

charlotte mayor's race:
http://results.enr.clarityelec...

[ Parent ]
Foxx had a good absentee program

[ Parent ]
better link for chapel hill mayor's race
[ Parent ]
NC board of elections
[ Parent ]
Georgia must have started with a ganja break
Thirty minutes, no results.  They're electronic machines, does it take that long to tally?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Same in NC

[ Parent ]
One More Thing....
....those Virginia vote counters tend to be pretty fast.  Before the polls close in New York, expect almost all of the Virginia count to be in...if recent history is any indication that is.
It did take until 11pm for VA to be called last year, and he did win by 5%...

[ Parent ]
Artificial Caution By the Networks....Just Like Tonight....
They knew the remaining vote out there was from northern Virginia and breaking overwhelmingly for Obama.  They could make a call right now for McDonnell without any fear of a repeat of Florida 2000, but have chosen to drag it out for suspense.
[ Parent ]
Georgia results!
HD-141 (the big fight).  One early voting site in, three votes for the crazy recent college grad.  Only three votes so far.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Deeds is Massively Outperforming Obama in Allegheny County
Up 63-37 (so far) in a County Obama narrowly lost!

This clearly demonstrates that the way for Democrats to win statewide elections in Virginia is to appeal to nominate Blue Dogs to appeal to rural Appalachian voters.

Of course, he is underperforming across the rest of the State, but that doesn't matter at all!

Yep
Overperform in the areas no one lives (and still lose half the time because we get killed there) but underperform in the areas where the people live, especially the ones that may vote for you.  I hear this same bullshit logic from conservadems here in Georgia; the ones who laud a candidate for wasting a day in a county of 3,000 in a state of over 9 million.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
If that were true
wouldn't Obama have lost Virginia?  
[ Parent ]
Yes
I was being sarcastic
[ Parent ]
Bull
Obama, Warner, Webb, and Kaine carried Nova by a landslide to edge out the Republicans in Virginia. Deeds should of focused on Nova and bringing out the Obama vote instead of running away from Obama.
[ Parent ]
Might be wrong
But I thought Matt was being sarcastic.
[ Parent ]
Agreed

[ Parent ]
Somebody needs to turn on their sarcasm detector

[ Parent ]
Note Deeds won said county with ~70+% in 2005.

[ Parent ]
McDonnell Flips Obama Counties
King and Queen County (All precincts in):

59 McDonnell
41 Deeds

48 McCain
52 Obama

Prince Edward County (10/11 of precincts in):

55 McDonnell
45 Deeds

44 McCain
54 Obama

African-American Voters?
Both of those counties have notably larger African-American populations than the state at large. Do we have any guess how much lower the African-American vote is going to be this year than it was in 2008?
[ Parent ]
Hardball
said the AA vote is down about 10% from last year? (Not sure someone check)
[ Parent ]
More than that
They were 20% of the VA electorate in 2008, 15% now.
[ Parent ]
Foxx up 2,000 votes in Charlotte

like this guy,
cool guy running for Governor in NJ as an independent, with different slogans for every county, look:

Governor
Gary Stein Independent Atlantic Rock The Boat
1729 Darmstadt Avenue Bergen Giv'm Heck Gary
Mullica Twp., NJ 08215 Burlington Nice N Easy
Camden Fools Rush In
Lieutenant Governor Cape May Stormy Weather
Cynthia Stein Cumberland Just In Time
1729 Darmstadt Avenue Essex All The Way
Mullica Twp., NJ 08215 Gloucester Where Are You
Hudson I Have Dreamed
Hunterdon They All Laughed
Mercer These Foolish Things
Middlesex A Fine Romance
Monmouth Lear'n The Blues
Morris Without A Song
Ocean Something Stupid
Passaic Street Of Dreams
Salem All Alone
Somerset How About You
Sussex Pennies From Heaven
Union My Shining Hour
Warren Love And Marriage

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Yeah I noticed that too.
It's flipping hilarious.  
[ Parent ]
Comparing VA numbers to 2005 results
Deeds is down 10-16% in every county. I would be surprised if he got >40%, using that as a guideline.
A few NY-23 results may be delayed
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

St. Lawrence County Board of Elections officials said this evening that machine breakdowns earlier today may prevent them from having election results tonight in Louisville, Waddington, Rossie and Clare.

Fulton Co results will be delayed too, as they choose to not make their votes available online.

why were they allowed to do that?>


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
NBC calls VA for McD
n/t
64% to 36%
This wasn't just bad, this was fail. Like Warner vs. Gilmore numbers.  
[ Parent ]
There was just no winning this election
we would've had to brought out every single Obama voter last year to even stand a chance, and it appears a lot of Obama voters voted for McDonnell.

[ Parent ]
It will close
When the urban areas come in.
[ Parent ]
I'd say Deeds will probably break 40%
Not much more than that, though.  
[ Parent ]
Fairfax County
He is losing Fairfax County outright, so far.

More of the vote in Arlington and Alexandria is in than the statewide average.

It's just Richmond that is not in, and that won't help that much.

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah, but
None of the vote in Bath County is in. So that will bail out Deeds (sarcasm - :)...
[ Parent ]
It won't be that bad at the end
but it will be about as bad as the polls were showing it to be.
[ Parent ]
Charlotte
Foxx ahead by 2000 votes with early ballots in.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
GA-HD-141
The tiny sliver of red Putnam County is almost in.   There is one more precinct left, and EIGHT votes have been counted: six to the neophyte Republican wacko college grad and two the indy.  Wish there were Dem votes there, but it's good that this area isn't coming in for the seemingly more likely Republican or for the indy (who has a real chance).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Putnam completely done.
Said looney Republican is down to 59.1.  The lone Dem is now in second with just over 19%.  The indy has just over 12%.  And the seemingly more likely Republican is trailing badly with 9.1%.  I'm fairly optimistic here.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
election machines impounded
A spokesperson for the Fulton County New York Board of Elections just confirmed that voting machines from five election districts in that county that are part of 23 NY have been impounded due to mechanical malfunctions. Results from the other 4 election districts in that county that are part of 23 NY will be reported tonight. Fulton County's nine election districts are slightly more than 1% of the 614 election districts in the 23rd Congressional District

http://www.tcotreport.com/elec...

Joe Cooper

I am Guessing
A 56%-43% McDonnell win. Alot of Democratic areas have not reported yet.

For more election analysis, visit http://frogandturtle.blogspot....  
Nah
It will be more like 60-40/59-41, especially if Fairfax County holds up.
[ Parent ]
Fairfax isn't a solid blue sea
the outer southern and western parts of Fairfax still vote Republican.
[ Parent ]
Yes
That is true. The precincts that are in so far could be unrepresentative, but a narrow McDonnell Lead is holding up there so far.
[ Parent ]
FOX News
Projects the Republicans win the Lt. Gov. and AG races in VA. Okay I know ya'll dont like FOX News but maybe theyre not biased on projections ;)
I think that much is self evident
when they aren't running much better than Deeds.
[ Parent ]
No network wants to flub a call anymore
not after they embarrassed themselves back in 2000 by making contradictory calls in a state that would ultimately be decided by a few hundred votes out of millions cast.

Honestly it was safe to call VA the second polls closed, but networks are cautious nowadays.

[ Parent ]
Pre-county ganja break over in NC
In one precinct.
Fulton County
How many lawyers are making Fulton County their destination tonite?

Joe Cooper
Heh.
Fulton County, GEORGIA is having trouble, too.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Daggett getting 8% of the vote in Ocean County

Interesting
McCain won Ocean Co. 58-40 and Bush by about 21% in 04. So perhaps this is bad for Christie. But i dont know really.
[ Parent ]
According to the county baseline
Bang on Corzine getting 45% so far.
[ Parent ]
Are the exit polls
not being released at closing time tonight?
From what I can tell
They aren't releasing them at all. Trying to find any elections results (maps, counties, etc.) is an exercise in futility it would appear.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
Usually
the CNN results page comes up. Now, nothing. Did they really think a regression in features would keep the junkies happy?!
[ Parent ]
Clearly CNN, MSNBC, etc.
Believe that elections nerds absolutely the internet, especially things that help us to find numbers! ;)

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
CNN: Christie up 25 among Independents
Phew
SUSA had a 30 point margin.
[ Parent ]
Independents can go 80 to 20
and Corzine can still win, as long as he holds the base together.
[ Parent ]
SUSA
had it 55-25. With Corzine down by 42-45.  
[ Parent ]
Mark Kleinschmidt winning Chapel HIll
51-45 with 86% reporting.

This deviates with PPP's poll that had him down 44-45.  

good news! n/t

[ Parent ]
Would have been odd
to see a conservative mayor of Chapel Hill. Of all places in the south.
[ Parent ]
Phew
My sense was that this race was close.  (I live in the region, although not in Chapel Hill)
[ Parent ]
Same percentages with 90% in for Chapel Hill
And Durham Mayor Bell is winning 77-23 with 67% in.

I think we can rest at ease that Democrats held on to both.  

[ Parent ]
Durham was never in danger
The Dems could have run a sex offender and they would probably have won Durham against a Repub.

Chapel Hill shouldn't be either in theory, but for some reason it seemed really tight.  I don't know if homophobia was the reason.

[ Parent ]
Whoa
62-29 in Jersey absentee?!
To Christie?

[ Parent ]
Looks to be just from Ocean County

[ Parent ]
OK

[ Parent ]
Corzine winning the smattering of Gloucester County
votes by about 10 pts. NYT has a decent page.
[ Parent ]
That one is much better
Thanks. So far Corzine outperforming what he needs.
[ Parent ]
So few results in
that I'm not willing to say anything yet. I will CNN would put up the exit poll spreadsheet!  
[ Parent ]
Someone needs to take Wolf Blitzer hostage or something
"We'll release Blitzer when we get the damned exit polls!" :D

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
What makes you think they want him back?

[ Parent ]
They gave him his own situation room
Of course, your point is definitely valid!

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
:)
[ Parent ]
Well all am saying is from the little in
He is doing better than he needs to. Very, very early days.
[ Parent ]
Marietta, GA (Atlanta suburb): bad news
Former Republican State Representative Steve Tumlin has won (if it's not officially called, I'm calling it now).  He's leading 70-20-10 with 5 of 7 precincts in.  As a non-partisan race, he undoubtedly won due to name recognition.  The Dem (crazy former gubernatorial also-ran Bill Bolton) is the guy at 10%.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
ME - Initiative
Yes (Anti-Gay Marriage) 27% 560
No (Pro-Gay Marriage) 73% 1,550

Less than 1% reporting

God, I wish those were the final numbers.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Now that would truly be a statement
that the media could crow about.  
[ Parent ]
Yes is now winning
55.7-44.3
[ Parent ]
We're now losing 54/46
3% reporting
[ Parent ]
That's not good
those votes are coming out of Southern Maine, we shouldn't be down by so much down there. A lot of Portland is already in.  
[ Parent ]
Bangor Daily
has some issues according to http://www.openleft.com/diary/...
[ Parent ]
um
Corzine just collapsed to 32% on intrade?
Intrade isn't really logical
And Corzine happens to be behind right now. Don't take it too seriously.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.
[ Parent ]
lol
If intrade really dropped that much because of early returns with 0% in, I need to get some money on there pronto!
[ Parent ]
How can you
the site doesn't accept any money from credit cards or banks in the US because that violates the online gambling law passed by Repubs in 2006.
[ Parent ]
No, the sites have ways to get around it
The charges show up as something random so the banks don't catch it.  Or at least that's the way it works with poker sites and I'd assume it's the same with intrade.
[ Parent ]
Exit poll showing Christie +3 among Economy issue voters

[ Parent ]
GA-HD-141: WOW
Baldwin County is done.  Everything is done (save for absentees-I think, and canvassing).

The indy has 44.4%.  The Dem and one of the Republicans are separated by 9 VOTES for second, with the Dem leading.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Maine
Open Left has what looks like some good inside liveblogging
they seem optimistic
Update 11: In Lewiston-Auburn, we're winning 58-42, including absentees. HUGE. That is one of the heaviest if not the heaviest Catholic region in the state. Nearly all of those numbers are in.
Update 10: Overall in Region 2 are on target for our vote goals.

Update 9: The numbers in Falmouth, a northern suburb, are 65% as well. VERY good.


[ Parent ]
With 20% of Bergen County reporting...
...Christie currently up 3.
NJ County Data Compared to 2008
With 49% in, Gloucester is going to Christie by 2%.  Obama was -2% (net) relative to the state.

With 38% in, Cape May has Christie up 17%.  Obama was -24%.

With 23% in, Ocean has Christie up 37%.  Obama was -36%.

With 14% in, Cumberland has Corzine up 33%.  Obama was +6%.

Looking very tight, but I'm optimistic.

Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 1 | 170 comments

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