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Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 2

by: DavidNYC

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 8:37 PM EST


10:43: Time for some more thread.
10:25PM: Shades of Florida 2000: Apparently, NBC has retracted its call on NYC-Mayor, but the NYT is still loud-n-proud. Bloombo's lead has widended a bit, with three-quarters of the vote now reporting. But barring some late, wild changes, this is going to be a major story - how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.
10:21PM: Dems win a special election in Alabama, taking HD-65 by a 53-47 margin, which was quite a bit closer than expected.
10:17PM: Up in Maine, gay marraige is holding on by 51-49 with 22% in.
10:16PM: With 27% in, Bill Owens is up 51-44-5.
10:13PM: The AP is calling NJ-Gov for Chris Christie.
10:11PM: Man. Bill Thompson is only 0.5% back with over half the vote recorded. What is going on here?
10:07PM: As I'd suspected, Corzine is overperforming a bit in the north and Christie is overperforming in the south. (Maybe those LG picks actually made a difference, too.) Corzine is 49/48 in Bergen (should be 42/47 according to baselines), 68/27 in Essex (should be 64/25), 68/27 in Hudson (should be 61/28), and 52/43 in Passaic (should be 48/41). But Christie is cleaning up down the shore: 31/62 in Monmouth (should be 35/53), 28/66 in Ocean (should be 28/60), and unfortunately, in blue Camden County, where it's 52/42 (should be 55/33). This balances out to a very close race, but it looks like it's shading toward Christie.
10:05PM: In NY-23, Owens is still leading even at 15% reporting. He's at 51%, with Hoffman at 45 and Dede at 5.
9:47PM: NYT calls the NYC mayoral race for Bloombo. Jesus. More than half my adult life has been spent under Republican mayors in NYC, and that ratio is about to get worse. The Times must really know something, though - 17% in and Bloombo leads by little more than 1%.
9:39PM: With 158 of 169 precincts reporting, Dem Anthony Foxx has a 52-48 lead in the Charlotte mayor's race.
9:35PM: Sorry about the server errors, folks - not a whole lot we can do on our end, I'm afraid. Anyhow, the first few precincts are reporting in NY-23.
9:29PM: Looks like Jon Corzine is underperforming his county baselines just about everywhere. Though it just closed to 49-44-6 Christie with 44% reporting.
9:24PM: Another VA General Assembly Dem incumbent set to bite the dust in HD-83, trailing by 20 points with 82% reporting.
9:22PM: Some results are finally starting to make their way in from the Atlanta mayor's race.
9:20PM: 52-42-6 Christie with 35% in. Ugh.
9:08PM: 50-43-5 Christie, with 29% reporting.
9:02PM: Polls are now closed in NY. In PA, the Dem Supreme Court candidate is up large with 6% in.
8:56PM: 16% of the vote in so far in New Jersey, and Christie is up 54-40. Don't fret, though - most of the counties reporting are expected to go heavily to Christie.
8:55PM: Just 4% in so far in Maine - good guys with 56%.
8:52PM: TheUnknown285 says of GA-HD-141: "There will be a runoff. One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd. The question is: who will be the other candidate? Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left."
8:50PM: Johnny LT has a good update on the VA Assembly races. Says Johnny: "So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory."
8:38PM: Just a head's up for those planning to burn the midnight oil: We may not get the full results of NY-23 tonight, as several towns in St. Lawrence County are having difficulty with their new voting equipment.
8:33PM: Time for some fresh thread. The AP has results for several states: CA | CT | GA | ME | MI | NJ | NY | OH | PA | VA | WA.
DavidNYC :: Election 2009 Results Thread, No. 2
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It's early in NJ
but it seems Corzine is ahead of the needed County performances for victory thus far pretty much everywhere. Let's hope that holds up.

I wish I were an eccentric billionaire right now
Then I'd just buy my own exit polls.

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Democrat Panella vs. Republican Orie-Melvin for control of the Court.

Not many votes in, but so far there is something interesting.  Panella is outperforming the lower ticket Democrats.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy


I think I'm going to hide under
my covers and hope for the best.  This is more nerve wracking that last year.

Come on Corzine.  Come on Mainers!


House of Delegates pickups
So far:

3rd - Republican pickup
93rd - Democratic pickup (4 precincts left but it would require a net 900 votes for Hamilton to pull off a win)

Looks like the 23rd, 64th, and 99th will be Dem holds.

Northern Virginia Democratic districts to keep an eye on: 32nd, 34th, 35th, 51st, 67th,
Northern Virginia Republican districts to keep an eye on: 52nd

Also watch the 21st and 83rd in Virginia Beach, both held by Dems.

So far not looking as bad as it should be for such a large McDonnell victory.


Cool
Thanks for the updates. Keep it up.

[ Parent ]
Yes, thanks very much
Keep `em coming.

[ Parent ]
HD-21
Mathieson is down by 39 votes with one precinct in, a precinct that he won in 2007 by a 2-1 margin, but which doesn't have a lot of voters in it. The SBoE also says the absentees haven't reported, but I thought that's what came in first.

[ Parent ]
HD-51 and 52
Luke Torian (D) ahead by about 300 votes with 14/19 precincts in.

Paul Nichols (D) down by 60 votes with 11/16 in.


[ Parent ]
HD-52: Dem pickup
Torian ahead by nearly 800 votes with 17/19 in.

[ Parent ]
HD-51: Paul Nichols (D) looks to be hanging on by his fingernails
15/16 precincts in (just absentees left, supposedly) and he's up by 57 votes.

[ Parent ]
Never mind
Nichols loses by 200 votes. This is getting worse.

[ Parent ]
Now
Mathieson is up by 35 votes but with the mysterious absentee thing still out that will probably doom him.

[ Parent ]
Why would absentees doom him???......
Dems usually have a better absentee program in Virginia than Republicans.  Or, at least in NoVA we do.  Is that not true down in Hampton Roads?

[ Parent ]
HD-83: Republican pickup
Chris Stolle (R) trounces Joe Bouchard (D) 59-41 with 14/17 precincts in.

[ Parent ]
Spoke too soon
HD-32 looking like a GOP pickup, with David Poisson (D) down by 15 points with 14/24 precincts in.

Also, in HD-34, Margi Vanderhye (D) is ahead by 1 vote with 6/20 in.


[ Parent ]
Some detail in HD-34......
Vanderhye is underperforming slightly in every precinct compared to 2 years ago, except that it's more than "slightly" in Langley and Forestville.  I think she and Comstock both live in Langley, and I'm not sure Dave Hunt did 2 years ago, so that would explain the 5-point swing there.  It's a 4-point swing in Forestville, a high-turnout precinct, so that hurts.  Elsewhere the swing in reported results is anywhere from a fraction of a percentage point to a couple points.

BUT Ben Tribbett reports on his Not Larry Sabato Twitter feed that Margi barely lost the heavily GOP and normally high-turnout Great Falls precinct by just 66 votes, and that would translate to at least a 6-point swing, maybe even 7 or 8 points, in Vanderhye's FAVOR there.  I predicted her overperformance in Great Falls and said so in a comment on NLS a day or two ago, because Margi became suddenly popular up there for engineering getting a stoplight put in at a dangerous intersection at River Bend Road and Georgetown Pike, a big deal for me personally as my mother-in-law and her husband live up there and we go up there all the time.  My wife and I live in Chain Bridge precinct, no results there yet.  As a frame of reference for the above swings, Margi barely won 51-48 in her first run 2 years ago, so small swings matter a lot.

I'm hopeful also that absentees are heavier than a couple years ago and go more strongly for Margi, as Fairfax County Democrats, the same as Democrats in so much of the country in recent years, have been increasingly big on getting an absentee vote going to bank as much as possible in advance.


[ Parent ]
HD-34: Vanderhye up by 1% with 8/20 in


[ Parent ]
Now Comstock is up 51-49 with 11/20 in


[ Parent ]
HD-34 remaining 9 precincts are...
...5 including the fictional "absentee precinct" (all absentee votes in the district lumped together instead of added back to geographic precincts) that Vanderhye won 2 years ago, 3 that she lost to Dave Hunt, and one, Spring Hill, that wasn't in 34.  I seem to recall Spring Hill is GOP territory.

So even the remaining precincts are split, and it's all about margins.

Oh, and among the 4 (if I'm right about Spring Hill) GOP precincts not reporting, one is Great Falls, where as I said Ben Tribbett reports Margi waaaaay overperformed.


[ Parent ]
Ugh, Ben Tribbett calls it, Comstock wins. This means...
...I have a ruby red Rethug as my Delegate.  That's ugly.

[ Parent ]
14/20 precincts in and now Vanderhye is up by 63 votes
Nailbiter.

[ Parent ]
Republicans pick up HD-32
Dave Poisson (D) loses by 15.

[ Parent ]
HD-67 not looking so good
Chuck Caputo (D) down 46-54 with 8/19 precincts in.

[ Parent ]
He's done
down by 800 votes with 13/19 precincts in and he's underperformed everywhere so far.

[ Parent ]
Oh, come on
last few precincts reporting in HD-23 and Valentine (D) falls behind.

[ Parent ]
Johnny
Any chance you could give us an overall statewide update at some point?

[ Parent ]
Updated HoD pickups:
Republican pickups - 3rd, 23rd, 32nd, 51st, 67th, 83rd
Democratic pickups - 52nd, 93rd

Dem seats to continue watching: 21st, 34th, 35th, 41st


[ Parent ]
Don't Panic
Christie's up 54.8-37.8-6.5, and I was freaking out, but a quarter or so of Ocean just dumped in at once.

Republican is now in up in the
Charlotte mayoral vote.

Dem is up 51.2-48.8
with 124/169 precincts.  

[ Parent ]
In Charlotte though
it depends very much which precincts those are. Lots of deep red and deep blue precincts, relatively few swing precincts.

[ Parent ]
Foxx is up again
51-49 with 136/169 precincts. Still pretty close but it looks like Charlotte will finally have a Democratic mayor for the first time in over 20 years!

[ Parent ]
Through the magic of changing the URL
Full PA results. Scroll to the bottom for Supreme Court.

GA-HD-141
There will be a runoff.  One of the candidates will be the indy Rusty Kidd.  The question is: who will be the other candidate?  Democrat Darrell Black and Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon are separated by sixteen votes with seemingly only canvassing and absentees left.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

GA-HD-129
To runoff or not to runoff?  That is the question.

In the all-Republican field, Kip Smith, son of the former office holder, has 49.5% over nutcase Steve Earles.  There is one precinct, plus absentees, and canvassing left.  The one precinct is in the only county Smith did not win.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Black is leading Gheesling-McCommon


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Crap
Bergen's 19% in... 49-47 Christie.

Yeah looks like Corzine is gonna lose this
he can't lose Glouchester and Bergen and win statewide, just not possible.

[ Parent ]
Don't worry
Kean Jr. was leading for a little bit also on election night in '06. This is going down to the end.

[ Parent ]
Hard To Know Which Part of Bergen....
....if it's the south side of the county where Christie is up by 2, we're in the trouble.  If it's the north side, Corzine's holding up well.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
49-47 is not great, but it seems to be impossible to judge since it's going to be very close. All the counties are just about on target if we take into account the Daggett collapse.

[ Parent ]
pointed out in the other thread
But openleft has a live blog up on Question 1 and they're very optimistic.

NO!
We lost the Scotland, CT First Selectman Race! The GOP incumbent won by 13 votes, 232-219! I guess they are really angry at Obama up in Scotland.

Are the Breckenridge, CO results in yet?


Polls close in a minute I believe
nt

[ Parent ]
Now that the NY-23 polls have closed
I can say that I'm really worried about Clinton County. I was so hoping Janet Duprey would see the wingnut target on her back - and follow Scozzafava's endorsement of Bill Owens. Unfortunately, she and the Clinton (and Franklin) County R party (including the Mayor of Owens' town, Plattsburgh) have all endorsed Hoffman.

Owens needs to win Clinton County fairly big - if  you don't see 55% or more for Owens...

There's also a second hand report from the NYDN, ref http://www.watertowndailytimes... about a paper ballot issue.

"Unless the margin of victory for either Democratic candidate Bill Owens or Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman is 8,000 to 9,000, we're headed for a massive recount a la NY-20," she writes tonight.


23% of Union County in
Christie up 52%-40%...jeez, not looking good. Dagget's collapse might have sealed it for Christie.  

Yeah
I'm usually very optimistic, but those Union County numbers seem killer to me.

[ Parent ]
Easy
There are several counties Corzine is doing much better in than he needs.

[ Parent ]
Daggett Factor
But with Daggett getting fewer than expected votes, Corzine needs more. No?

[ Parent ]
With 104 of 169 Precincts reporting,
Foxx (D) is up in the Charlotte mayor's race.

124
Up by 2,000 votes.

[ Parent ]
Monmouth Co.
In Monmouth Co., in central NJ, Christie is leading 62-31-6 with 92% in. By contrast McCain won the county by less than 4 pts. Man thats a pretty big gain for Christie.

This is the part
where someone tells us how Corzine comes back. 'Cause with big chunks of Essex, Union, and Camden already in, I don't see it happening.

Not even half of Essex
None of Mercer. Patience.

[ Parent ]
soapblox ate my response
But I was going to mention Mercer too. Let's see something from there.

[ Parent ]
With Ocean
And Monmouth almot all in.

[ Parent ]
St. Lawrence County - NY-23
Most of those St. Lawrence County towns that had voting problems--that's Dede country as far as I can tell (most are part of her Assembly district). And I would expect Dede's territory is going to be the wildest and most interesting of the results, with a distinctly not-along-partisan-lines breakdown.  

That's why I'll hold out hope
even if Clinton/Franklin Counties don't turn out as Owens needs (per the prevailing "conventional" wisdom)

[ Parent ]
That's why I'll hold out hope
even if Clinton/Franklin Counties don't turn out as Owens needs (per the prevailing "conventional" wisdom)

[ Parent ]
new jersey
Where are you guys getting the county-by-county results?

Christie
If this keeps up, he'll have defied all the polls...

They must have made a mistake in Sussex
Surely?

Obviously
I'd like to know where that's actually from, though.

[ Parent ]
They must have
No way Sussex County goes for Corzine, especially with Bergen County going for Christie...

[ Parent ]
It depends what precincts
In Bergen. Union just flipped.

[ Parent ]
Union flipping isn't entirely unbelievable
Although its politics are traditionally dominated by the Democratic machines from the urban east, the more Republican, suburban western part of the county could very well end up causing the county to flip for Christie.

As for Bergen, it is a swing county, yes, but with the way Christie's results are coming in statewide I would expect him to carry that county.  


[ Parent ]
Heh
Sorry for posting the same thing. didnt read it till after i posted mine ;)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
There's no way Corzine did anywhere near that well there. They probably mixed up the numbers.

[ Parent ]
Union flips.
Suprise of the night for NJ:  Sunset.  It went to McCain by 21%.  And it's going to... Corzine by 38% (100% in).  Whaaa?

Something seems off
The NY Times map says, with 100% in, Corzine wins Sussex Co. (in NW NJ) 64-26...even though McCain won it by 20% (according to Leip).

New Jersey Legislative elections
LD1 and LD14 are very close thus far. Of course they're at very different stages of reporting, with seventy-something percent for LD1 and just 2% for LD14...

LD36 is not close at all so far with 29% reporting.


In Texas
All Constitutional Amendments are on their way to passing. Some good Education/Veterans Health Care stuff in there, and some lingering Kelo anti-eminent domain blowback.

Of course, it is the Higher Education amendment (Prop 4) that is the closest to not passing...


Kelo was a horrible, unjust decision, in my opinion
What is the general important of the anti-Kelo constitutional amendments in Texas?

[ Parent ]
DavidNYC
Are you getting more up todate results than the Times? Because from that I'd say the basline is mixed.

Owens leads Hoffman
51-45 with 1% in.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Owens leads! (for now)
Maybe 1 or 2% in, from the front page of the Watertown paper

http://www.watertowndailytimes...

1281/92/1224 votes (O/S/H)

so far so good in Clinton County....


Hardly a swing county, but...
Hunterdon Co., bordering Somerset Co. to the west, went for Christie 66-25% with 100% in. McCain won it by 13% but thats a pretty big gain. Seems like Corzine will need to do better than expected with his base, especially in N. Jersey.

Mercer is finally starting to report


Was the NY Times call on NYC-Mayor premature?
With 17% of precincts reporting, Bloomberg's only up 2% on Thompson.

Owens still leading with 8% precincts in
Owens 5,194 53%
Hoffman 4,127 42%
Scozzafava 407 4%

new thread
Need 3 new threads please 1 for VA, 1 NJ, 1 NY, one the rest?

On the good news front
Anti-discrimination ordinance in Kalamazoo, MI upheld by voters:

http://www.electionmagic.com/r...

Yay equality!


WTF NYC-Mayor
Everyone on NY1 looks stunned.  

Same here
I know I am. This is a surprise. Go Thompson!  

[ Parent ]
Jeez...
What will it take for the NYT to uncall NYC-Mayor?

PA-Supreme Court tied a 50
55% in

Also, Corzine is down to 4% on intrade
Hoffman has dropped 30% in the last half hour and is down to 45%

Owens up big in Jefferson County !
2717 - 543 Owens in Jefferson

That's the home of Watertown, where Biden campaigned and where Scozzafava was once mayor. The newspaper also gave Owens their endorsement, but the county went to McCain in 2008.

http://www.watertowndailytimes...


Christie defeats Corzine
I hope Owens wins now, but NYC-Mayor may suck all the wind out of the Republican comeback meme.  

The exit poll is
exactly tied. But real results don't lie. . .

[ Parent ]
NY-23 looking good
I made a simple model in excel where you plug in the results so far by county, and it spits out numbers, based off of the 2008 turnout. Right now it looks good!

It is projecting 50.51% Owens, 39.31% Hoffman!


awesome :)
any change I could get that?

[ Parent ]
It is just
a bunch of formulas in an excel spreadsheet. I set it up so when I copy/paste results from the Watertown newspaper website, it crudely spits out a number.

[ Parent ]
Not as good now
It says 45.59% Owens, 44.36% Hoffman. The reason is that the part of Jefferson Co. that was in was not representative.

[ Parent ]
MSNBC, AP, and Politico calling it for Christie
man this sucks.

AP calls NJ for Christie
Not looking good.  

Thompson= WFP
We might be seeing an effect of the WFP, this might be whats helping Owens upstate.  

The Dems blew it by blowing off this race
Although Obama may have wanted Bloomberg to win, while Bloomberg may be a conservative by NYC standards, he's a moderate liberal by national standards, and a valuable "bipartisan" ally for his national agenda.  So Bloomberg is much more valuable than having a Democrat as mayor of NYC.


[ Parent ]
The way to hell out of NYC is through Holland Tunnel

Believe it.

Sadly.


Kaine Deathwatch Thread
Wonder if it's time to start a thread on when Kaine will resign as head of the DNC.

Nah
sans Virginia and New Jersey, Dems are actually doing pretty well elsewhere. Picked up Charlotte Mayor, Thompson is overperforming in NYC, Owens looks like he'll win after all.

VA and NJ may be the top stories, but it looks like they were anomallies, or this whole night was a wash.


[ Parent ]
Unlikely this is a mortal blow to Kaine
Though it's worth pointing out he put a good amount of resources into this, and the head of the DNC losing the state that he's the (soon) ex-governor of is a pretty big embarrassment.

On the other hand, expectations were low in VA for quite a while.  


[ Parent ]
OMG, it's looking promising!
Gosh, can't pull up too many sites now, but I like what I'm seeing with 25% in, Owens is still leading 51-5-44!

I wish I could pull up some site with county data..... the Watertown paper website is overloaded now.


Wish We Knew Where the Vote Was Coming....
Hopefully it's not all of the St. Lawrence, Clinton, and Franklin County vote and nothing else.

[ Parent ]
The NJ exit poll
shows a tie. I want to see all of Hudson and Mercer come in before I declare this over.

Meanwhile, NYC mayor: WTF?


NYC
I think the President wants Bloomberg to win as I mentioned above.

[ Parent ]
Is it possible that the results pages
just aren't showing what Bloomberg is getting from fusion?  

[ Parent ]
Good point
Bloomberg ran on the Independence Party line as well as the Republican line.

[ Parent ]
county data cd 23
county data cd 23, on a wingnut site

http://www.tcotreport.com/


Joe Cooper


That's What I Was Afraid Of....
Clinton County and St. Lawrence County (strong Democratic turf) account for most of the vote count so far.

[ Parent ]
Thanks! If Plattsburgh hasn't reported yet
Owens will get what he needs out of Clinton County

And so far (12%), Owens getting almost 60% out of St Lawrence Co?! (DeDe's home area). That would be HUGE!


[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov just tightened to 49-45


Big Dem precints in Madison County in
that is shooting Owens way up.

NYC-Mayor: NBC retracts Bloomberg call


I'm extremely surprised
Thompson is doing so well. Where are the precincts that are reporting?

[ Parent ]
Crude Excel model projects...
51.23% Owens, 39.02% Hoffman

But that is because Owens is currently at 92% in Madison County... that won't hold up.


Corzine seems to be well and truly toast
Sad.  

Good riddance
Premature message of the night... R wingers lose... D hacks lose... mainstream Rs and Ds beat both.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

[ Parent ]
Yep.....Nothing Left on the Map To Save Him Now...
....now that almost all of Hudson and Mercer Counties are in.  They were our last hope to run up the score.

[ Parent ]
Unless they haven't counted the mail ballots yet
and even then, Corzine would pretty much have to win them Saddam Hussein style.

[ Parent ]
Does the NYT have a cool map for Owens like they do Christie?
I suspect not unfortunately.

Less than a 100 margin in Maine at this second..

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


MSNBC uncalls NYC mayor


cd 23
cd 23, form

http://www.tcotreport.com/

      Hoffman              Owens          Dede           Total

oswego     0                     0             0

Madison      0                0                0

Oneida          0                 0             0

St Lawrence      1060          1717          115

Jefferson         0             0              0

Lewis           179             112            17

Fulton       0                   0                  0'

Hamilton        0                0                  0

Clinton          3324             4853         325

Essex            1584              1772            179

Franklin            0              0                 0

Joe Cooper


Owens up to 90% on intrade!


Jefferson County totals, now with 62% in
http://www.co.jefferson.ny.us/...

Owens still up in the swing county...


Damn...If He Wins Jefferson, He Wins the District....
...that was my call before the polls closed and continues to be now.

[ Parent ]
97% reporting in Jefferson, looking hopeful!
9851/1147/9122 (O/S/H)

http://www.co.jefferson.ny.us/...  


[ Parent ]
Anthony Foxx wins Mecklenberg Mayor
51% Foxx
49% Lassiter

less than 3,000 votes


NYC Dems must be furious at Obama for not stumping...


You got any proof on that?


[ Parent ]
You got any proof on that?


[ Parent ]
No one expected this
there are two Democratic city council candidates losing whom they thought would win, and two who we thought would lose who are winning.

Nothing is what they thought it would be in NYC.


[ Parent ]
No one expected this
there are two Democratic city council candidates losing whom they thought would win, and two who we thought would lose who are winning.

Nothing is what they thought it would be in NYC.


[ Parent ]
Read what I read below
I believe that Obama wanted Bloomberg to win.  

And I believe that he was right to do so.  Bloomberg is just too valuable of as a "bipartisan" ally with very minimal cost (Bloomberg effectively governs NYC like a pro-business Democrat).

Had the polls shown a close race, I suspect Obama might have endorsed Bloomberg, or at least sent messages that Bloomberg was their favored choice.


[ Parent ]
You may be right
But if Obama wanted Bloombo to win, I don't think he would of OPENLY endorsed him. Messages yes, but not an open endorsement.

Plus by national standards Bloomberg is a moderate. Socically liberal, fiscially conservative. Critical of Dems (i.e Chuck Schumer) for going againist their party and supporting pro-life Democrats. Don't blame if he wanted him to win. Same with me, but him repealling the term limit law in NYC really peeved me though.


[ Parent ]
What many here miss
- how all the polls were so wildly wrong (and so many of them, too!), and how establishment Democrats failed to support one of their own.

was that the Obama administration and the DNC's preferred candidate was Bloomberg.  Bloomberg is a "bipartisan" ally for Obama's national agenda, and he is much more valuable as such than a Democratic mayor of NYC in a state that is safe.



cd 23 by county
       Hoffman              Owens          Dede             votes          Reporting Total voting precincts  % reporting

oswego         0                     0             0                                      0            124

Madison        0                     0                0                                   0              55

Oneida                 0                 0             0                                  0           22

St Lawrence      1837          2796          115          2892             13           102

Jefferson         0                 0              0                                        0         91

Lewis           179                  112            17                  308              3       44

Fulton       0                   0                  0'                 8502            0              9

Hamilton        1184              888          293             2365           11            11

Clinton          3324             4853         325                                38            80

Essex            1584              1772            179                            27            27  

Franklin         2953              3346        180              6479           32         49

Total            11061            13768          1204         26033          134         614

Joe Cooper


The PA Judicial Races
Not looking good. Not only is the Democrat down by 4 with 77% in, but out of the 6 lower court seats on the ballot, at the moment 5 of those would also go to Republicans.

Hmmm
Seems Bloomy's not alone: Dave Bing had a closer than expected race over in Detroit tonight also, winning by only 20,000 votes (though sadly only 120,000 Detroiters showed up to choose who would turn out the lights).

WTF Westchester????
Seems County Exec Andy Spano is losing pretty big (58-42) with 56% reporting in NYCs immediate northern burbs. The DA and County Clerk races both have the Dem at about 52%, so he is clearly underperforming.

If he loses to the GOPer it will be a fairly huge upset, especially since Westchester has moved so hard to the left, and because it is simply a large, influential place (it has a million people, 2 of whom are famous Clintons). Hopefully some of the more urban areas in Yonkers, White Plains, and Mount Vernon are still outstanding.  


Owens gets 56% in Clinton County, 99% reporting
so far so good!

Owens up in St Lawrence Co, 46% reporting
http://www.co.st-lawrence.ny.u...

6093/510/4425 votes (O/S/H)


68 Percent in
Owens 49 percent
Hoffman 46 percent
Dede 5 percent

71 Percent In
 Owens, Bill Dem 50,712 49%
Hoffman, Doug Con 46,746 45%
Scozzafava, Dede GOP 5,898 6%
 

Politico/Ben Smith rumor about "key Hoffman Supporter"
Dave Weigel catches a key Hoffman supporter, who says it's "over" and the Democrat will represent that heavily Republican district.
(Weigel reports for the Washington Independent)
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Well I wouldn't call it a HEAVILY GOP district
And if everyone dosen't mind, i'll break out the bubbily when it's all said and done. Don't want to jinx it.

[ Parent ]

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