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Election 2009 Predictions Contest

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 5:41 PM EST


Let's get ready to rumble! Swing State Project is offering up its usual grand prize -- delicious chocolate babka, courtesy of DavidNYC -- for the swingnut who comes closest to picking the outcomes of the four big elections tomorrow. We'll need you to give the percentages for each option in each of the following races; just post them in the comments:

• NY-23 (Owens, Scozzafava, and Hoffman) (and yes, we know Scozzafava is officially out, but you still need to guess what percentage of people still vote for her!)
• NJ-Gov (Corzine, Christie, and Daggett)
• VA-Gov (Deeds and McDonnell)
• Maine Question 1: (yes and no)

The person with the net closest answers wins. Of course, there's lots more going on tomorrow, so feel free to offer your predictions on CA-10, Washington's R-71, New York mayor, Boston mayor, Atlanta mayor, Charlotte mayor, or anything else your heart desires -- you just won't get extra credit for it. The contest closes at 7 pm Eastern/4 pm Pacific tomorrow, as Virginia's polls close.

UPDATE (7pm, 11/3): The contest is now closed!
Crisitunity :: Election 2009 Predictions Contest
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Election 2009 Predictions Contest | 174 comments
Predictions:
• NY-23 - Owens 48%, Scozzafava 6%, and Hoffman 46%
• NJ-Gov  - Corzine 46% Christie 45% and Daggett 9%
• VA-Gov - Deeds 44% and McDonnell 55%
• Maine Question 1 - yes 47% and no 53%  
A bit pessimistic..
NY23: Hoffman 54
           Owens: 40
           Scozzafava: 6

NJ-GOV: Christie 45
                Corzine: 42
                Daggett: 8

VA-Gov: McDonnell: 57
               Deeds: 42

Maine: Discriminate: 51
            Oppose Discrimination: 49

I don't think it will be a bloodbath for us
NY 23
Hoffman 44
Owens 37
Dede 8

NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 44
Daggett 10

Va
McDonnell 57
Deeds 41

Question 1
No 49
Yes 49

You need to re-do your math on NY-23......
You've got 11% unaccounted for!  Just give it all to Owens.  :-)

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
Good call
updated NY-23

Hoffman 48
Owens 42
Dede 9

[ Parent ]
Okiedokie...
NY-23:
Hoffman - 48%
Owens - 46%
Scozzafava - 6%

NJ-Gov:
Christie - 46%
Corzine - 45%
Daggett - 9%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 59%
Deeds - 41%

Maine Question 1:
"No" - 52%
"Yes" - 48%

Abracadabra-like
NY-23:
Owens - 48%
Hoffman - 46%
Scozzafava - 6%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine - 46%
Christie - 46%
Daggett - 8%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 59%
Deeds - 41%

Maine Question 1:
"Yes" - 52%
"No" - 48%

Here Goes...
NY 23

Hoffman 49
Owens 44
Scozzafava 7

NJ (Gov)

Corzine 47
Christie 44
Daggett 9

VA (Gov)

McDonnell 57
Deeds 43

Question 1

Yes 51.2
No  48.8

Cool handle!
n/t
[ Parent ]
Trying to carve out some optimistic space...
ny-23
Owens 49
Hoffman 46
Scoz 4

NJ
Corzine 44
Christie 43
Daggett 10

VA
McD 57
Deeds 43

Maine
N 52
Y 48

I'm horrible at this
But I will try my hand anyway

NY-23:
Owens - 47% (win)
Hoffman - 47%
Scozzafava - 6%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine - 48%
Christie - 47%
Daggett - 5%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 54%
Deeds - 46%

Maine Question 1:
"Yes" - 49%
"No" - 51%

Bill Hedrick(D) for CA-44

Here's mine, mostly bad news
Hoffman 49
Owens   46
Dede     5

(Had we had another two weeks, this would have been different)

Christie 44 (win)
Corzine  44
Daggett  12

(Shades of 1993 with Whitman-Florio)

McDonnell 58
Deeds     41

(McDonnell narrowly wins Northern Virginia)

pro-equality (No)  51
pro-bigotry  (Yes) 49

Bonus (close to home for me):

Conservative Republican Mark Czjakowski pulls off a huge upset and defeats liberal Democrat (who is gay) Mark Kleinschmidt 51-49 for mayor of Chapel Hill.

 

I think you're right about the congressional race
Another 10 days/2 weeks or so, and a much clearer picture of Hoffman could be painted.  With a drama-filled three way race, the focus for moderate and moderately conservative voters hasn't effectively been put on the fact that Hoffman is WAY, WAY outside of the mainstream of the district.  But he's the hot thing right now -- and give him and the teabaggers credit, they've done a good job here.
[ Parent ]
Not Much Cause For Optimism Based on the Winds I'm Feeling....
NY-23....Hoffman 48, Owens 42, Scozzofava 8

NJ-Gov....Christie 46, Corzine 41, Daggett 10

VA-Gov....McDonnell 58, Deeds 41

Maine....Discrimation 53, Nondiscrimination 47

And I don't know the candidate names in CA-10, but I'm predicting a weak three-point Dem margin.

dead people voting in NJ (or rounding error)
you got 101% :)
[ Parent ]
My predictions
Perhaps a bit too optimistic, but oh well.  Hopefully I'll be correct.

NY-23: Owens: 47.3%; Hoffman: 46.7%; Scozzafava: 6%

NJ-Gov: Corzine: 46%; Christie: 43%; Daggett: 11%

VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56%; Deeds: 44%

ME 1: No: 52%; Yes: 48%

And, for fun:
NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg: 55%; Thompson: 43%; Others: 2%

WA 71: Yes: 54%; No: 46%

Charlotte-Mayor: Lassiter: 53%; Foxx: 47%

My Predictions
Virginia
McDonnel 56%
Deeds 43%

McDonnell absolutely crushes in the Hampton Roads (wins Virginia Beach with about 63% of the vote) and loses in Northern Virginia but carries Prince William and Loudon Counties by about 10 points.

Maine Question 1
Equal rights 52%
Anti Equal rights 48%

There seems to be an extremely large amount of volunteers for the no side. I heard that some people who planned to vote no were complaining about too many people calling them to remind them to vote.

NJ Governor
Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
For more info on my opinion about this race, you should check out my recent diary. It should still be up.

NY-23
Hoffman 49%
Owens 44%
Scoffaza 7%
Owens will begin an upward climb but it should not be enough. Hoffman should probably lose in 2010 once a Republican runs for the seat and splits the vote with Hoffman.

CA-10
Garamendi 55%
Karmer 45%

Washington Domestic Partnership inititive
I have not seen much polling there but the pro domestic partnership side should win.  

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com

Hoffman in 2010
There isn't going to be a split: if Hoffman runs for a full term in 2010 he will do so as a Republican and he will overwhelmingly win the GOP nomination as the incumbent.

Rather Hoffman would likely deal with facing a much stronger Democratic opponnet (which would come from an actual primary, not hand picked by county chairs) and the NY-23 electorate finding him too right wing to reelect him.

[ Parent ]
Give it a shot
NY -23

Hoffman  49
Owens    43
Scoz      8

NJ

Christie  45
Corzine   43
Daggett   11
Other      1

VA

McDonnell  58
Deeds      41

Maine
Yes        53
No         47      

Predictions
NY-23

Hoffman 48%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 6%
Other 2%

NJ-Gov

Corzine 44%
Christie 42%
Daggett 10%
Other 4%

VA-Gov

McDonnell 54%
Deeds 45%
Other 1%

ME-Gay Marriage

Yes 51%
No 49%

CA-10

Garamendi 54%
Harmer 44%
Other 2%

NY-Mayor

Bloomberg 56%
Thompson 42%
Other 2%

First Downer In A While
NY-23 - Hoffman 48%; Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%;

NJ-Gov  - Corzine 43% Christie 42% and Daggett 15%;

VA-Gov - McDonnell 56%; Deeds 44%  

Maine Question 1 - yes 50% and no 49%.

We will win CA-10 54-46.

Dems pull it out
NY-23:
Owens - 46%
Hoffman - 43%
Scozzafava - 9%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine - 47%
Christie - 44%
Daggett - 8%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 54%
Deeds - 45%

Maine Question 1:
"No" - 51%
"Yes" - 49%

Mine!
Owens: 49%
Scozzafava: 3%
Hoffman: 48%

Corzine: 47.5%
Christie: 44%
Daggett: 8.5%

Deeds: 41.8%
McDonnell: 58.2%

Yes: 47%
No: 53%

I have an algorithm that determines the winner of every college basketball game...
NY-23:
Owens 48%
Hoffman 47%
Scozzafava 5%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine 46%
Christie 45%
Daggett 9%

VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%

Maine Question 1:
No 52%
Yes 48%

NY-23 and NJ-Gov will be really tight; I didn't want to get into decimals, so there's an estimate.

I'm Going Pessimistic....
And it is a strategic decision on my part (if I was betting money on each of these outcomes, I am guessing we do better than I am projecting here).

The strategy here is the same reason I pick USC in any football office pool, even though I am a loyal UCLA fan. I get some tangible benefit, not matter which way it turns out...

In this case, if I guess wrong, I'll be happy because Democrats did well. If I guess right, I have a shot at the chocolate babka. Win-win!!

NY-23: Hoffman 52, Owens 41, Scozzafava 7
NJ-Gov: Christie 46, Corzine 44, Daggett/Otros 10
VA-Gov: McDonnell 57, Deeds 43
Question 1: Yes 51, No 49

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"

By The Way....
I actually have a sneaking suspicion that Corzine will win in New Jersey, but like I said, I went pessimistic so I get SOMETHING out of the night if it turns out to be a rout....

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"
[ Parent ]
picks
NY-23:

Owens - 48%
Hoffman - 43%
Scozzafava - 9%

NJ-Gov:

Corzine - 43%
Christie - 42%
Daggett - 14%

VA-Gov:

McDonnell - 57%
Deeds - 41%

Maine 1:

For gay marriage - 54%
Against gay marriage - 46%

very pessimistic
NY 23
Hoffman 47
Owens 42
Dede 6

New Jersey
Corzine 44
Christie 46
Daggett 10

Virginia  
McDonnell 56
Deeds 42

Question 1
No 51
Yes 48

picks...
NJ:
Corzine-44
Christie-42
Daggett-12

VA:
McDonnell-56
Deeds-42

NY-23:
Hoffman-47
Owens-42
Scozzafava-7

Maine:
No-52
Yes-48

Here are the correct answers from the future......
I have returned from Thursday in my time capsule to report as follows:

NY-23
Owens 47
Hoffman 46
Scozzafava 7

NJ-Gov
Corzine 44
Christie 42
Daggett 12
Others 2 (the biggest surprise of the night)

VA-Gov
McDonnell 55
Deeds 45 (he slightly overperforms as Dem turnout is slightly better than expected)

ME-Gay marriage referendum
No 51 (gay marriage survives)
Yes 49

Bonus races:

VA-LG
Bolling 53
Wagner 47

VA-AG
Cuccinelli 54
Shannon 46

VA-House
GOP net plus-2

NJ-Assembly
GOP net plus-2

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

Predictions
New York:

Hoffmann 49%
Owens 40%
Scozzafava 10%

Jersey
Corzine 46%
Christie 43%
Daggett 11%

Virginia
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 43%

Maine
No 50%
Yes 49%

Lassiter and Kleinschmidt win by <4 in Charlotte and Chapel Hill

Also my local municipal elections
Here in Boone, I'm projecting a clean sweep for the Democrats.

Mayor:
Loretta Clawson 51%
Tim Wilson 43%
John Mena 7%

Town Council Order of Finish (3 seats)
Andy Ball
Rennie Brantz
Jamie Leigh
Harold Frazier
Matt Long
Grant Holder
T. Ben Wilhite

[ Parent ]
Hopeful Predictions
NY-23

Owens:     49%
Hoffman:   46%
Scozzafava: 5%

NJ-Gov

Corzine    47%
Chrisie    44%
Daggett     9%

VA-Gov

McDonnell  54%
Deeds      45%

Maine (where no means yes to marriage equality)

No         52%
Yes        48%

My pics
NJ
Corzine: 45
Christie: 44
Daggett: 11

VA
McDonnell: 58
Deeds: 41

NY-23
Hoffman: 48
Owens: 45
Dede: 7

Maine Question 1
No: 52
Yes: 48

And about question 1 in ME
I have a hard time believing that recent poll showing young voters only narrowing going for equality. In a socially progressive state like ME I believe that young voters would be for gay marriage by, at the very least, 20 points. Maybe even 30. And the ones who will care to show up at the voting booth will more than likely be college students who are very much in favor of marriage equality. Sure there will be some religious conservatives showing up but i doubt many young religious conservatives exist in Maine. The problem for winning is that, from what I know, there are still many conservative Catholics over 50 or so who are getting alot of encouragement to vote from the church leadership. But I think that will be counterbalanced by a strong showing from social progressives in places like Portland. Including many who arent liberal Dems, but also fiscal conservative/moderates.  
[ Parent ]
Weather and Off Year Lethargy
I hope I'm wrong on all of my predictions that aren't New Jersey:

NY-23:
There is a 40% chance of rain in most of the district. Hoffman's base of old people will show up to vote in the morning before the possible rain. Tea baggers will show up even if there is a tornado because they believe every lie about Obama. The Scozzafava endorsement of Owens will not be much of a factor because most voters will view it as sour grapes.

54% Hoffman
38% Owens
8% Dede

NJ-Gov:
New Jersey voters are too embarrassed to admit that they are voting for Corzine, so they are telling the pollsters that they are either undecided or Daggett voters. Some Corzine voters however will stay home even in the nice weather because they don't approve of Corzine. Expect a close election where Corzine wins and Daggett underperforms the polls.

49% Corzine
45% Christie
6% Daggett

Va-Gov:
How low can Deeds go?

38% Deeds
62% McDonnell

Maine Question 1:
Those opposed to Gay Marriage are the most likely to vote.

54% Yes
46% No

i actually just checked weather.com
I checked NYC, Newark, Camden (Philly area), DC, Richmond, Norfolk, Portland (ME), Watertown and Plattsburgh and those last 2 are the only ones with at least a 40% chance to rain. So not just rain will occur in areas with a major election.  
[ Parent ]
Might as well...
NY-23: 48 Owens, 47 Hoffman, 5 Scozzafava
NJ-Gov: 47 Corzine, 46 Christie, 7 Daggett
VA-Gov: 58 McDonnell, 42 Deeds
Maine Question 1: 50.4 No, 49.6 Yes
a tie sound pretty good right now
Scozzafava 6
Hoffman 49
Owens 45

Corzine 45
Daggett 12
Christie 43

Deeds 41
McDonnell 59

Maine No 53
Yes 47

First time poster, long time reader

My take
NY-23:
47% Owens
46% Hoffman
7% Scozzy

VA-Gov:
55% McDonnell
44% Deeds
1% Other

NJ-Gov:
45.7% Corzine
45.5% Christie
9.8% Daggett

CA-10:
57% Garamendi
42% Harmer
1% Other

ME-Init 1:
No: 51%
Yes: 49%

Not very good
Hoffman 49
Owens   45
Dede     6

Christie 46
Corzine  45
Daggett   9

McDonnell 58    
Deeds     42

Yes      49
No       51

Garamendi 54
Repub     46

Predictions
Bob McDonnell - 56.3
Creigh Deeds - 43.6

Chris Christie - 46.1
Jon Corzine - 44.5
Chris Daggett - 7.8
Other - 1.6

Doug Hoffman - 48.8
Bill Owens - 45.0
Dede Scozzafava - 6.2

Yes - 49.5
No - 50.5

Crunched these numbers forever
NY-23
49% Hoffman
48% Owens
3% Scozzafava
NJ-Gov
46% Corzine
45% Christie
8%  Daggett
VA-GOV
56% McDonnell
44% Deeds
Maine Question 1
50% No (Margin of victory less than 2,000 votes)
50% Yes
Charlotte Mayor
(likely recount)
50% Foxx
50% Lassiter
Boston Mayor
65% Menino
35% Flaherty
NYC
56% Bloomberg
40% Thompson
CA-10
58% Garamendi
39% Harmer
35 for Flaherty?
I'm expecting an easy Menino win but I'd imagine Southie will come out to vote for Flaherty.
[ Parent ]
Here's mine
NJ Gov
Corzine 44%
Corrupt McFraud 42%
Daggett 14%

NY-23
Wingnut 46%
Owens: 43%
Scozafazza: 8%

Question 1
No: 56%
Anti-marriage homophobes: 44%

VA-Gov
Misogynist hack: 56%
Deeds: 41%

CA-10
Garamendi: 58%
Harmer: 39%

No nickname for Harmer eh?

[ Parent ]
My Picks
VA
NcDonnell - 58%
Deeds -     42%

NJ
Corzine - 46%
Christie -45%
Daggett -  9%

NY-23
Owens - 47%
Hoffman-46%
Scozz -  7%

ME
Yes - 49%
No -  51%

Mt Predictions:
VA: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 42%, other 2%.  Further prediction: McDonnell gives GOP response to Obama's 2010 State of the Union.

NJ: Corzine 45%, Cristie 44%, Dagget 7%, other 4%.

NY-23: Hoffman 48%, Owens 45%, Scozzafava 7%

ME- Yes 52%, No 48%

I hope you don't take off for spelling!
I'm usually a lot more careful than that when I'm on a not-iPhone.
[ Parent ]
.....
47.0% Corzine
44.8% Christie
8% Daggett

Bob Mcdonnell 55%
Creigh Deeds  44.6%

Maine
Yes(against equal rights)50.2%
No(for equal rights)49.8%
After recount:
No 50.1%
Yes 49.9%

NY-23
Hoffman 49%
Owens 47%
Scozzafava 4.2%

When are you poor fools going to realize
Babka is not the reason for living, good humas is.
:P
Anyway, here is the illustrious ArkDem's predictions, though I have never been stunningly accurate.

NJ GOV
Corzine 43%
Christie 41%
Daggett 16%

VA-GOV
McDonnell 53%
Deeds 47%

NY-23:
What the heck, I can't stand Hoffman, any idiot who sits around blowing shallow cliched platitudes out of his ass to appeal to ignorant people, like most of the Republican party actually, doesn't deserve to win a moderate New England district, he still might.

Owens 50%
Hoffman 44%
Scozzafava 6%

Maine Marriage Amendment:
Yes 48%
No 52%

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

It's New York, not New England
if you're from the Northeast it's a huge difference. New England (except Connecticut maybe) has about as many Yankees fans as Republicans.
[ Parent ]
You have by far
the highest total for Deeds on this board.  Any reason for that?
[ Parent ]
No way Deeds is going to get blown out
its that simple. I figure on him getting a higher percentage of NoVa voters than he is getting, and a higher percentage of black voters. Not to mention Deeds outperformed his polling average last time around significant against McDonnell, I see no reason to see otherwise this time, and I think Democratic turnout will be a little better than models are predicting it to be.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'm not nearly as optimistic as you
I have two friends in Northern Virginia, one Democrat, one independent, both have voted for Democrats this whole decade and voting for McDonnell.

But if Deeds does get 47%, it means that a lot more Dems turned out, we'll probably break even in the VA House, we may win the Lt. Gov race.  It would also means that you will probably win this contest.

I'm certainly hoping you're right.

[ Parent ]
What are they thinking
Do they know anything? I'm just wondering, if they have any intelligence and have been Democratic voters reliably they are either being forcibly uncooperative, or are just idiots, that's all I can say about Democratic voters voting for a guy as conservative as McDonnell over a guy who actually does have good policy ideas for NoVa as the WaPo pointed out very clearly.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I don't know
I spent a good amount of time trying to change their minds, one (the independent) was unwilling to budge, the other (the Democrat) showed some openness and was on the fence for a while, but at the end said that Deeds is just unqualified to be Governor.  Funny because he voted for Deeds for AG in 2005.
[ Parent ]
But then again
That probably had a lot to do with Tim Kaine's surge at the end as opposed to something inherent about Deeds. I just don't see Deeds getting anywhere near single digits.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
My picks, even though I mostly lurk,,,
VA-Gov:
McDonnell 55%
Deeds 45%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine 49%
Christie 46%
Daggett 5%

NY-23:
Owens 50%
Hoffman 40%
Scozzafava 10%

ME Question 1:
No 52%
Yes 48%

I used a random number generator...
NY-23
Owens - 50
Scozzafava - 9
Hoffman - 40

I am prepared to be wrong. Or gloriously right.

NJ-Gov
Corzine - 44
Christie - 47
Daggett - 6

Although Corzine very slightly outperforms his polls, Daggett drops and some of his voters go to Christie.

VA-Gov
Deeds - 39
McDonnell - 60

Deeds does not just lose, but loses very badly.

Maine Question 1
Yes - 46
No - 54

The consensus seems to be that this will be close. One way or another, it won't be. One side or another will have an intensity gap. While normally with Gay Marriage it is the anti side that is more inclined, this time it is surprisingly the pro side that is motivated to vote.

All in all, a mixed bag. Disappointing for Dems in the Governorships, but good in NY-23 and ME.

Predictions plus DNC
NY-23: Owens 49%, Hoffman 48%, Scozzafava 3%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45%, Christie 44%, Daggett 11%
VA-Gov: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%
Maine Question 1: Yes 49%, No 51%

Additional prediction: If Democrats learn anything from Tuesday, Kaine will be out as DNC Chair by the end of the year.

http://notlarrysabato.typepad....

Prediction
NY 23

Hoffman 46
Owens 47
Scozzafava 7

NJ (Gov)

Corzine 46
Christie 44
Daggett 10

VA (Gov)

McDonnell 58
Deeds 42

Question 1

Yes 48
No  52

I have come so close
to the sweet, delicious Babka before.  I want that Babka!!!

Here goes:

Hoffman 50
Owens 44
Scozzafava 6

Corzine  45
Christie 44
Daggett  10

McDonnell 57
Deeds 43

No  52
Yes 48

The Swammi Predicts
NY23: Hoffman 47
          Owens: 42
          Scozzafava:11
NJ-GOV: Christie 37
               Corzine: 41
               Daggett: 22

VA-Gov: McDonnell: 56
              Deeds: 444

Maine: Discriminate: 47
           Oppose Discrimination: 53


Deeds must be engaging in some serious voter fraud there ;)

[ Parent ]
Roll the Dice
NY-23:
Owens - 43%
Hoffman - 47%
Scozzafava - 5%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine - 46%
Christie - 44%
Daggett - 10%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 56%
Deeds - 43%

Maine Question 1:
"Yes" - 49.8%
"No" - 50.2%

No predictions

But I am halfway to believing that the way to hell out of NYC is through Holland tunnel.
Tuesday is my Drinking Night with my Buddies
I'm going to skip it to watch these results. I'm going to need a drink by the end of the night.

VA-GOV (Blowout)
McDonnell (R) - 57%
Deeds (D) - 43%
Bonus, Dems lose NET 6 state house seats

NJ-GOV (The bright spot due to better GOTV machine)
Corzine (D) - 47%
Christie (R) - 45%
Daggett (I) - 8%%
Bonus, Dems lose NET 2 state house seats

NY-23 (Needed more time on the clock)
Hoffman (C) - 49%
Owens (D) - 46%
Scozz (R) - 5%

ME-INT (California Redux)
Yes (Discriminate) - 50.2%
No (Freedom) - 49.8%

HOUSTON - Mayor
Parker gets first (mid 30s%), Brown gets second by 2% over Locke (mid 20s%). the lone Republican, Morales, finishes distant fourth (15%).

Well, this way you get to
Drink with your SSP buddies. :)
[ Parent ]
Fun!
I doubt I'll get close, but hey....guessing is fun!

NY-23:
Owens: 46%
Hoffman: 44%
Dede: 8%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 42%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 14%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 53%
Deeds: 44%

Maine Q1:
Yes/No - exactly tied percentage-wise (50-50) but Maine keeps gay marriage by less than 1% of votes.

I'm always overly optimistic
so I'm going to be a little more pessimistic tonight on some races.

NY-23: Hoffman 49.3%, Owens 46.7%, Dede 4%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 46.5%, Christie 44.5%, Daggett 9%
VA-Gov: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 44%
Maine Question 1: No 50.8%, Yes 49.2%

Prediction time!
OK, been a huge fan of the site, just now registered for a chance at food. NY-23 Owens 49 Scozzafava 3 Hoffman 48 NJ-Gov Corzine 47 Daggett 7 Christie 46 VA-Gov McD 59 Deeds 41 (this being the two-way vote; I think other, no matter who it is, will get a couple of points) Maine Q1 Reject gay marriage (Yes) 46 Good Guys (No) 54 Bonii: No changes to Republican in the NJ state Assembly. Washington races (thank you, The Stranger): Constantine wins, McGinn wins (in what would be a squeaker if it weren't all announced at the same time), gay rights win with R-71.
Sorry.
Forgive my formatting, please.
[ Parent ]
I Guess I'll Try
NY-23
Hoffman-51%
Owens-46%
Scozzafava-3%
NJ-Gov
Christie- 46.2
Corzine-44.1
Daggett-8.3%
Other-2%
VA-Gov
McDonnell-59%
Deeds-41%
Maine Question 1-
No-51%
Yes-49%
CA-10
Since this doesn't count, I'm gonna break from the crowd and make a totally outlandish prediction
Harmer-50.5
Garmendi-49.5
:P
Similar to my predictions
The Repubs will win the three races, but discrimination will go down to defeat in Maine.  I also picked an upset that the Repubs will win, but my upset was for Chapel Hill mayor (I live in the Raleigh-Durham area).

Although I predict that the NJ Gov race will be closer, within 1%.

[ Parent ]
You cannot be serious on CA-10
When the one poll was 50-40 with Garamendi leading comfortably in every demographic?
[ Parent ]
Upset of the year
If the unknown Harmer takes down the sitting Lt. Gov. in a D+11 district, that would be nothing short of the upset of the year. And also, nothing short of hilarious.
[ Parent ]
my take
NJ Gov

Corzine - 45.5
Christie - 45.0
Daggett - 9.5

This one comes down to the wire, but I'll give Corzine a narrow victory simply because NJ is a blue state, and Corzine has Obama stumping for him.

NY-23

Owens - 49
Hoffman - 44
Scozzafava - 7

Owens wins, falling just short of fifty percent. I think Scozzafava's endorsement will have some significance with many of the moderate voters that populate this district, and it drags Owens over the finish line.

VA Gov

McDonnell - 54
Deeds - 46

Deeds finishes stronger than expected but McDonnell still wins handily.

forgot Maine - my bad
No - 52
Yes - 48
[ Parent ]
Predictions
NY-23-Hoffman 54-44-2
NJ-Gov-Christie 49-44-7
VA-Gov-McDonnell 61-39
Maine Question 1-no 55-45
CA Congressional-Harmer 50.5% and Garamendi 49.5%
NYC Mayor- Bloomberg 72-28
ATL Mayor-Norwood 45-29-26 over Reed and Borders
Charlotte Mayor-54-46 Lassiter

Inside, outside, leave me alone. Inside, outside, nowhere is home. Inside, outside, WHERE HAVE I BEEN!? Out of my brain on the 5:15!
CA-10
Are you just doing like me and saying, screw it, this doesnt count, or do you really think Harmer will win?
[ Parent ]
I think Harmer might win
I stress the word might because this is a district that went to Obama by 22 points and John Garamendi is a very formidable candidate. However, anti-Obama sentiment, Garamendi's gaffe about taxes, and the fact that this will probably be a low turnout race in comparison to the others, which will make this closer than many expect and maybe, maybe, win.

Inside, outside, leave me alone. Inside, outside, nowhere is home. Inside, outside, WHERE HAVE I BEEN!? Out of my brain on the 5:15!
[ Parent ]
08 Pres. result
Actually Obama won it by 32. But a strong Dem district all the same. The GOP could have won it in the 94 wave with the right candidate and an unknown or bad Dem candidate...but that was because the political climate was more favorable to the GOP and that area was more friendly to the GOP then. Of course the GOP did have a U.S. Rep. from the area but it was under different, less-Dem lines. But anyway I think the GOP could win it even in 2009 but only if the Dem was massively corrupt.
[ Parent ]
Again
Have you actually seen the one reputable poll on this race?
[ Parent ]
My predictions
NY 23

Owens: 47
Hoffman: 45
Scozzafava: 8

Down to the wire here, it all comes down to GOTV and where Scozzafava's voters will go. I expect the teabaggers and Dems GOTV to be evenly matched here.

NJ Gov:

Corzine: 46
Christie: 45
Daggett: 9

Corzine eeks out a narrow victory, thanks to Daggett peeling away the anti Corzine vote from Christie. I wouldn't doubt a recount here.

VA Gov:

McDonnell: 60
Deeds: 40

This race has been DOA since June. I expect the networks to call this race to be called for McDonnell before the returns start filtering in. McDonnell will edge out Deeds 52% to 48% in Nova. McDonnell crushes Deeds everywhere else throughout the state. The Democrat Renaissance in the Old Dominion comes to an end tomorrow night.

Maine Question 1:

Yes: 51
No: 49

I can't recall any state rejecting a ban on same sex marriage from the poll booth. Sure this is Maine...but California's pretty liberal right? And they still passed Prop 8.  

Different
California is more religious than Maine.
[ Parent ]
Arizona rejected a ban in 2006
only to outlaw it in 2008 under less strict/harsh terminology
[ Parent ]
Thing about California vs. Maine
Is that a lot of California's Democratic strength comes from minority groups typically seen as being more religious (and thus more anti-marriage equality).  That's not the case with Maine.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
As a SoCal resident, latinos and hispanics are very conservative Catholics. A great example is Prop 8 in Orange County. Heavy Dem cities like Santa Ana voted for it (due to minority majority status), while Irvine, Costa Mesa, Aliso Viejo and Huntington Beach are all Republican, but voted against it. The issue is race when it comes to these sorts of issues.
[ Parent ]
Demographically
Maine is a more prime target. In addition, No on 8 was one of the worst run campaigns in history while No on 1 has been nearly flawless.
[ Parent ]
Predictions
NY-23:
Hoffman - 52%, Owens - 45%, Scozzafava - 6%, Other - 1%

NJ-Gov:
Christie - 43.5%, Corzine - 42%, Daggett - 8%, Other - 6.5%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 57%, Deeds - 42%, Other - 1%

Maine:
No/Gay Marriage - 52%, Yes/Repeal - 48%

NY-23 Sum Over 100%
I seem to have made a dumb mistake!
Correction:

NY-23:
Hoffman - 52%, Owens - 42%, Scozzafava - 5%, Other - 1%

[ Parent ]
My predictions
NY-23:
Hoffman: 50
Owens:   45
Scoz:     5

NJ-Gov:
Christie: 47
Corzine:  44
Daggett:   9

VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 57
Deeds:     43

Maine:
Yes: 53
No:  47

I'm feeling pessimistic.

Here we go
NY-23:

Hoffman 47%
Owens 46%
Scozzafava 7%

NJ-Gov:

Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 10%
Others 2%

VA-Gov:

McDonnell 57%
Deeds 43% (this race is probably going to be a disaster for us)

NYC-Mayor:

Bloomberg 60%
Thompson 40% (I'll also go out on a limb and say that Thompson loses all five bouroughs, including the Bronx)

ME-Initiative

No 53%
Yes 47% (I'm betting that Mainers pleasently surprise us)

Your go-to source for great sarcasm

Svengali
Ok

NY-23
Hoffman 50%
Owens 44%
Scozzafava 5%

NJ-Gov
Corzine 51%
Christie 44%
Daggett 4%

VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 42%

Maine Question 1
Yes 44%
No 56%

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST

Predictions...
Virginia:

McDonnell- 57%
Deeds -        43%

New Jersey:

Christie - 47%
Corzine - 45%
Dagget -  7%

New York 23:

Hoffman -     52%
Owens -         40%
Scozzafava - 8%

Maine Question 1:

Yes - 55% (ban gay marriage)
No -  45%

(Sorry but I don't think that this one is going to be as close as people think...I live in Massachusetts and even here most people seem to oppose gay marriage).

Where in Mass do you live?
From my experience most people in the Boston area, at least young people, support it...and even quite a few adults.
[ Parent ]
.
I live in the Worcester area so that's central mass...I am 20 and yes I agree that most young people here support it, but not overwhelmingly and not enough to offset the votes of those over 30.  
[ Parent ]
Central Mass
and SE Mass are iffy but I wouldn't be surprised to see majority support for gay marriage in the Boston area and the Berkshires. and Maine is kind of like the Berkshires, if nothing else because of all those liberal arts colleges up there.
[ Parent ]
.
True, I feel like Suffolk County and the Berkshires would be for gay marriage, but the rest of the state probably not, with the possible exception of Middlesex County which contains many liberal cities that makeup the Boston suburbs, and the Amherst area. South Shore is the most republican part of the state actually so I think it would be against gay marriage along with central Mass. We may find out someday if they ever get it to a vote.  

As far as Maine goes, I fully expect Portland to vote No on question 1, but the rest of the state will likely vote for it.    

[ Parent ]
Prediction
NY-23

Hoffman 51%
Owens 42%
Scozoffavo 8%

VA-Gov

McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%

NJ-Gov

Christie 48%
Corzine 46%
Daggett 5%

Maine

Yes 53%
No 47%

I will expect that after this election, we will see a wave of Democratic retirement.  I dont see how Democrats hold the House next year.  It will be a miracle if they can.  

Ha
Concern troll, maybe?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Registered today, has one comment
come to your own conclusion.
[ Parent ]
I predict all republicans to the left of limbaugh
Switch to Dem or retire, giving the Dems a huge victory in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Check out the newbie concern
Noted and summarily dismissed with prejudice
[ Parent ]
I predict that
John Boehner is bitten by a werewolf, and then bites all of the other Republican members of Congress during a caucus meeting, rendering them all werewolves.  Then all the Democrats will win in 2010 because no-one wants to vote for a werewolf.  I don't see any way that won't happen.
[ Parent ]
Here we go...
NY-23:
Owens 45.1%
Hoffman: 45.0%
Dede:9.9%
Recount!

NJ:
Corzine: 44%
Christie: 41%
Daggett: 13%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 56%
Deeds: 43%

Maine:
Yes(repeal): 52%
No(keep):48%

...A surprisingly good result in NJ is overshadowed by an ensuing in NY-23 recount and the overturn of gay marriage in New Jersey....

My predictions
Now that I'm in NYC, I have slightly more incentive to try for some babka.

And probably fail miserably in the process.

NY-23: Owens 49, Scozzafava 6, Hoffman 45
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 44, Daggett 11
VA-Gov: Deeds 43, McDonnell 57
Maine Q1: Yes 48, No 52

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

here goes
Hoffman: 52
Owens: 44
Scozzafava: 4

Corzine: 46
Christie: 45
Daggett: 9

Maine Yes: 50.5
Maine No: 49.5

Deeds: 42
McDonnell: 58

yeah
NY-23:
Owens: 44
Hoffman: 48
Scozzafava: 8

NJ-Gov
Corzine: 42
Christie: 41
Daggett: 16

VA-Gov
McDonnell: 56
Deeds: 43

Maine:
Yes: 49.5
No: 50.5

Maine comes through, NJ is in courts forever.
NY-23 Hoffman 50
     Owens 42
     Scozzafava 8

NJ-Gov Corzine 45*
      Christie 45
      Daggett 9

VA-Gov McDonnell 57
      Deeds 42

Maine  No 51
      Yes 49

predictions
NY 23 - Hoffman 47%, Owens 40%, DeDe 13%
NJ Gov - Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%
VA Gov - McDonnell 55%, Deeds 45%
Maine - Yes 49%, No 51%

I'm not thrilled about these, especially the first three (and VA, where for once we have a candidate from the mountains, like my family), but I just don't have a good feeling about them.  I've tried not to be a Chicken Little, but I'm just not feeling it.

Ok here goes...
NY-23

Hoffman 46%
Owens 42%
Scozzafava beans 12%

Scozzafava captures a large amount of absentee votes.

NJ-gov

Corzine 47%
Christie 44%
Daggett 8%

The usual NJ race with the R leading but then fading and losing. A lot of Dagget supporters end up going with another candidate.

VA-Gov
McDonnell 57%
Deeds 42%

The trend continues.

ME-init
Yes 51%
No 49%

Probably ends up in court.

NJ-Gov
I'm surprised so many are picking Christie.
Seems like NY-23 predictions are about 2-1 Hoffman

[ Parent ]
Sure, why not?
NY-23: Hoffman 47.94%
      Owens 46.72%
      Scozzafava 5.34%

Scozzafava still being on the ballot makes all the difference.

NJ-Gov: Corzine 47.63%
       Christie 43.35%
       Daggett 9.02%

I think Christie has been damaged enough to encourage a last-minute defection of moderate Republicans to Daggett that will win the race for Corzine. No way the winner of this race breaks 50%, though.

VA-Gov: McDonnell 62.21%
       Deeds 37.79%

Won't even be close.  

ME-Init: Yes 50.09%
        No  49.91%

This one could really go either way, but based on demographics and all the cranky old homophobic ladies from Maine that I've known who are registered Democrats and will definitely be at the polls, I'm betting that gay marriage dies the most annoyingly narrow of deaths. Still, I could easily be wrong, and hope that I am.  

My guesses
Owens: 42
Scozzafava: 10
Hoffman: 48

Corzine: 45
Christie: 42
Daggett: 11

Deeds: 45
McDonnell: 55

Yes: 47
No: 53

Constantine wins in King County

I'm not ignoring this thread, and I'm not superstitious
but I really don't feel comfortable making predictions under the circumstances. We all know what the polls say.

May the winner enjoy the babka!  

My try: not too original
Not original, 2 wins and 2 losses:

NY-23:
Hoffman: 47%
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 8%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 46%
Christie: 45%
Daggett:  9%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell:  57%
Deeds: 43%

Maine:
Yes: 49.5%
No:  50.5%

Bonus for Washington State:
Ref. 71:
Approve 55%
Reject: 45%

I-1033:
Yes: 45%
No: 55%

King County Exec:
Constantine: 55%
Hutchinson:  45%

Seattle Mayor:
Mallahan: 51%
McGinn:  49%

Washington
I bet a friend a dollar back in September that Dow Constantine would win more than 55 percent and she laughed in my face.  Look who's laughing now!

I agree with your other predictions but I bet 1033 fails by a bigger margin than that and 71 wins by a bigger margin than that.

[ Parent ]
I would have lost a dollar too
I was feeling very pessimistic about Dow even 2 weeks ago, but he finally pulled it together.  I think the fake "pro-Hutchinson" ads were very effective.

Regarding 1033 and 71:  I didn't have much to go on.  So I'm guessing low, and hoping I'd be surprised, versus saying 60/40 and 40/60 and being disappointed.

OK, which one do you think is closer to the 60/40 mark?  I'd have to go with I-1033.  I think everyone hates Tim Eyman by now, and the measure is just too confusing, and too many powerful people/groups against it.  71 had a lot of money from out of state.

Next stop: Back to the WA State Supreme Court and marriage equality for Washington!

[ Parent ]
1033
I think you're right that 1033 will lose bigger than 71 wins, but it's anyone's guess.  The No on 1033 campaign has done a really good job getting the word out and raised huge money.
[ Parent ]
Predictions
NY-23:

Owens: 48
Hoffman: 46
Scozzafava: 6

NJ-GOV:

Corzine: 45
Christie: 44
Daggett: 11

VA-GOV:

McDonnell: 54
Deeds: 45

CA-10:

Garamendi: 57
Harmer: 43

NY-Mayor

Bloomberg: 55
Thompson: 45

oops
ME:

Keep Same-Sex Marriage: 52:
Ban SSM: 48

[ Parent ]
Yeah
NY-23
Hoffman: 46%
Owens:44%
Scozzafava: 7%

NJ-Gov
Christie:45%
Corzine: 44%
Dagget: 11%

VA-Gov
McDonnel: 56%
Deeds: 42%

ME-1
No: 51%
Yes: 49%

Im that optimistic....  NY-23 will be a big race for 2010 at least and should be exciting, regardless.  

My Guestimate:
NY-23
Owens:     46%
Hoffman:   49%
Scozzafava: 5%

NJ-Gov
Corzine    44%
Chrisie    43%
Daggett    9%

VA-Gov
McDonnell  55%
Deeds      44%

Maine  
No         52%
Yes        48%


Prediction
NY-23
Owens: 48.5
Hoffman: 47.5
Scozzafava: 4

NJ-Gov
Corzine: 45
Christie: 43
Dagget: 12

VA-Gov
Deeds: 42
McDonnel: 58

Maine Q1:
Yes: 46
No: 54

Here goes nothing...
NJ-Gov
Christie 43%
Corzine 39%
Daggett 18%

VA-Gov
McDonnell 56%
Deeds 44%

NY-23
Owens 46%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 9%

ME-Init. (ban gay marriage?)
Yes 51%
No 49%

Other predictions:
CA-10
Garamendi 57%
Harmer 43%

NJ Question 1 (take on bonded debt for open spaces?)
No 58%
Yes 42%

WA-Init. (repeal domestic partnerships law?)
Yes 52%
No 48%

OH Issue 3 (legalize casino gambling?)
Yes 61%
No 39%

***
NY-23:  Owens 46%, Hoffman 43%, Scozzafava 11%

New Jersey:  Corzine 45%, Christie 41%, Daggett 14%

Virginia: McDonnell 55%, Deeds 44%

Maine: Yes 51%, No 48%

Here are mine.
I have my formula predictions for the governor races on my blog. I am going to do total guesses as to the House races and the Maine measure.

NY-23: Owens 46%, Hoffman 45%, Scozzafava 9%

CA-10: Garamendi 56%, Harmer 44%

New Jersey: Christie 46%, Corzine 44%, Daggett 10%

Virginia: McDonnell 56%, Deeds 43%, write-ins 1%

Maine: No 51%, Yes 49%

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

What the heck
NY-23
Owens 47
Hoffman 46
Scozzafava 7

NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 43
Daggett 12

VA
McDonnell 57
Deeds 43

ME
Yes 53
No 47

CA-10
Garamendi 56
Harmer 44

Riverside, CA mayor
Loveridge 54
Gage 46

NJ-Gov: The expected value for all previous predictions is...
NJ-Gov: The expected value for all previous predictions

Corzine: 45,11%
Christie: 44,14%
Dagget: 9,95%
Others: 0,80%

And i think the final results can be near this numbers. I hope too Corzine's victory.

Hoffman
NY-23

Hoffman: 52%
Owens: 41%
Scozzafava: 7%

NJ Gov:

Christie: 48%
Corzine: 46%
Daggett: 6%

VA Gov:

McDonnell: 55%
Deeds: 45%

Maine Question 1:

Yes: 53%
No: 47%

Thank God we'll finally have a third party member in Congress! This is what we need to get rid of the two-party system and turn America into a true democracy. More choices, more voices!

You know Hoffman is a Republican right?
I imagine he calls himself a Repub if and when he gets to Washington just like Specter wasn't elected as a Dem.
[ Parent ]
My prediction
NY-23:
Owens: 47
Hoffman: 45
Scozzafava: 8

NJ-Gov:
Corzine: 47
Christie: 43
Daggett: 9

VA-Gov:
McDonnell: 56
Deeds: 44

ME Q1:
Yes: 49
No: 51

Might be the only way I can get hold of babka in the UK!
VA-Gov

McDonnell 55%
Deeds 43%

NJ-Gov

Corzine 45%
Christie 44%
Daggett 11%

NY-23

Hoffman 51%
Owens 40%
Scozzafava 9%

ME-Q1

No 53%
Yes 47%

Predictions
NY-23: Hoffman 48, Owens 36, Scozzafava 16
NJ Gov: Christie 45, Corzine 41, Daggett 14
Va Gov: McConnell 54, Deeds 44, Others 2
ME Question 1: Yes 50.4, No 49.6

And by the way, I doubt if any of this has any implications whatsoever for 2010, unless you think every Democratic incumbent will be as unpopular as Corzine, every Democratic challenger will be as inept as Deeds, and every open Congressional district will be as historically Republican as NY-23.  Indeed, I still see a 12-15 seat gain for Republicans in the U.S. House and anything from a -2 to +2 change in the U.S. Senate next year (it's one thing to be less than thrilled with the Democrats in DC, another to give power back to the Republicans given their recent history).

Great post

[ Parent ]
sadly pressimistic
I actually feel better about 2010 (where we should gain in Senate, have modest House losses, and perhaps win some big state Governor's races) than today.

NY-23-
50% Hoffman
39% Owens
11% DeDe

NJ-Gov-
46% Christie
44% Corzine
6% Daggett
4% other

VA-Gov-
56% McDonnell
43% Deeds
1% other

MAINE

DON'T DISCRIMINATE: 50.1
DISCRIMINATE: 49.9

(I don't get why this is so close.  So ridiculous.  Then again, I have heard that straight people have had to flee Massachusetts to salvage their marriages....)

CA-10
51% Garamendi
45% Harmer
4% other  

Hm.
NY-23: Hoffman 50, Owens 46, Scozzzzzzzzzafava 4

NJ-Gov: Corzine 45, Christie 42, Daggett 11

VA-Gov: McDonnell 59, Deeds 41

ME-Q1: Yes 50%, No 50%

My Guesses
NY-23
Owens  40
Scozzafava  13
Hoffman  47

NJ-Gov
Corzine  44
Christie  44
Daggett  12

VA-Gov
Deeds  43
McDonnell  57

ME-Q1
Yes  49
No  51


Ties all around!
NY-23:
Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)
Owens 46
Dede 7

NJ-Gov
Corzine 45 (wins)
Christie 45
Daggett 9

VA-Gov
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42

Maine Q1
No 50 (wins) (yay)
Yes 50

Needless to say, I'm betting on the next decimal place to count today!

Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let's say he wins by 10 or under).

Ties all around!
NY-23:
Hoffman 46 (wins after recount)
Owens 46
Dede 7

NJ-Gov
Corzine 45 (wins)
Christie 45
Daggett 9

VA-Gov
McDonnell 58
Deeds 42

Maine Q1
No 50 (wins) (yay)
Yes 50

Needless to say, I'm betting on the next decimal place to count today!

Also, bonus prediction: Bloomberg wins NYC mayor by LESS than any public poll shows (I think his smallest lead is 12, so let's say he wins by 10 or under).

Alrighty
New Jersey Governor
Christie: 45%
Corzine: 43%
Daggett: 9%

Virginia Governor
McDonnell: 57%
Deeds: 43%

Maine Question #1
No: 52%
Yes: 48%

NY-23
Owens: 49%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 5%

Not going to like my predictions....
NY-23 Hoffman 51, Owen 43, Scozzafava 6
NJ-Gov Christie 47, Corzine 43 Daggett 6 (3% other)
VA-Gov McDonnell 57 Deeds 43
Maine Q1 No 52 Yes 48

Also think CA-10 might be VERY close.

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bad night for dems
NY-23:
Owens-45
Scozzafava-6
Hoffman-49

NJ-Gov:
Corzine-44.5
Christie-46
Daggett-9.5

VA-Gov:
McDonnell-56.5
Deeds-43.5

Maine Question 1:
Yes-47
No-53

Clubbedinthehead's predictions
NY-23:
Owens (D)      - 47
Scozzafava (R) -  4
Hoffman (C)    - 49

NJ-GOV:
Corzine (D)   - 45
Christie (R)  - 44
Daggett (I)   - 11

VA-GOV:
Deeds (D)     - 44
McDonnell (R) - 56

ME Q1:
Yes        - 47
No         - 53

Rolling the dice
VA-Gov
McDonnell 55.2%
Deeds 44.8%

NJ-Gov
Corzine 44.6%
Christie 42.7%
Daggett 10.1%
Other 2.6%

NY-23
Owens 47%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 7%

Also, fearing a squeaker in CA-10.

ME-Init.
No 52%
Yes 48%

EDIT - Scozzafava 8%

[ Parent ]
0-fer
NY-23: Owens 46
   Scozzafva 6
    Hoffman 48

(early GOP absentees keep DeDe above 5 percent)

Also, predict will not be called tonight with military absentees

NJ-Gov: Corzine  45
       Christie 48
       Daggett   7

(late Indie break and Daggett fall lets Sta-Puff slip past)

VA-Gov Deeds     44
      McDonnell 56

(Organizing for America surge voter contact and GOP overconfidence cuts margin)

Maine Q 1:   YES 54
            NO  46

(always runs stronger than polls, though counter-intuitive approach of YES for No Gay Marriage may reduce YES votes)

Here goes
NY-23

Hoffman 48
Owens 40
Scozzofava 12

NJ-GOV

Christie 48
Corzine 47
Daggett 5

VA-GOV

McDonnell 57
Deeds 43

Maine Question 1

Yes 51
No 49

CA-10

Garamendi 54
Harmer    44
Other 2

Washington R-71

Yes 56
No 44

NY-Mayor

Bloomberg 58
Thompson 42

A night of "So close- and yet so far" outcomes

NY-23:
Hoffman - 48%
Owens - 47%
Scozzafava - 5%

NJ-Gov:
Corzine - 44%
Christie - 43%
Daggett - 13%

VA-Gov:
McDonnell - 57%
Deeds - 42%

Maine Question 1:
"Yes" - 51%
"No" - 49%

Throwing my hat into the wind with a prediction...
NY 23rd
Hoffman 48%
Owens   47%
Scossovava  5%

NJ Governor
Corzine  45%
Christie 44%
Dagget 11%

Virginia Governor
McDonnell  56%
Deeds     44%

Maine Gay Marriage
No   52%
Yes  48%

Random guesses
NY-23:
Scozzafava - 8%
Owens - 40%
Hoffman - 52%

NJ-Gov:
Daggett - 17%
Corzine - 42%
Christie - 41%

VA-Gov:
Deeds - 46
McDonnell - 54

Maine:
Yes - 48
No - 52

Here goes
NY-23:

Owens    47
Hoffman  46
Scozzafava   7

NJ-Gov

Corzine  45
Christie  43
Daggett  10

VA- Gov

McDonnell     56
Deeds             43

ME - Q1

Yes   47
No    53

Hope I'm wrong
I think Corzine's GOTV might be enough and I'm hanging my hat on Monmouth but I've been burned in the past by ignoring polls in favor of organization. So I'm thinking agonizingly close but not close enough in the two marquees. Recounts would help dull the blow in the media.

Maine Q1: 51-49 No
VA-Gov: 57-43 McDonnell
NJ-Gov: 46-45-9 Christie
NY-23: 48-47-5 Hoffman

57-43 Garamendi
57-43 Bloomberg
51-49 Foxx

Prediction
NY-23: Owens 46 Hoffman 49 Scozzafava 5
NJ-Gov: Corzine 45 Christie 44 Daggett 11
VA-Gov: Deeds 43 McDonnell 57
Maine: Yes 52 No 48


my predictions
NY 23  Owens 47  Hoffman  46  Scozzafava  5

NJ  Corzine  43  Christie 43 (corzine wins) Daggett 14

VA  McDonnell  54  Deeds  46

ME ? 1  No 51  yes 49

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

crap messed up
that should be

NY 23  Owens 47  Hoffman 46  Scozzafava 7

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Ahoy-hoy
Hoffman 48 / Owens 39 / Dede 13

Christie 46 / Corzine 40 / Daggett 13 / Others 1

McDonnell 55 / Deeds 45

Add ME
I neglected the ME race...

Yes - 55 / No 45

[ Parent ]
Funny how
You can tell first time posters party affiliation just by their predictions! :)
Oh man its been to long, okay perdictions:
VA-Gov:

56% Mcdonnell
44% Deeds

NJ-Gov:

Corzine 45%
Christie 44%
Daggett 8%
Others take the rest

NY-23
Owens 47%
Hoffman 45%
Scozzafava 8%

Maine Question 1:

No 50%
Yes 50%  

Should be an interesting night
NY-23 (I have NO idea what'll happen here):
Hoffman - 48% (win)
Owens - 48%
Scozzafava - 4%

NJ-Gov (Daggett does reasonably well, pushes Corzine over the finish line):
Corzine - 45%
Christie - 43%
Daggett - 12%

VA-Gov (if this isn't called within 30 mins of polls closing, I'll be shocked):
McDonnell - 58%
Deeds - 42%

Maine Question 1 (a refreshingly comfortable margin for the good gays):
"Yes" - 46%
"No" - 54%

Optimistic
NY 23
Owens 47
Hoffman 44
Dede 9

NJ
Corzine 45
Christie 44
Daggett 11

Va
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44

Question 1
No 52
Yes 48

holy shit that's some bad juju here
so i'm gonna get hopeful - why? - because i want to:

NY -23
Owens  45.5
Hoffman    45.2
Scoz      8

NJ

Corzine   43.5
Christie  42.5
Daggett   13
Other      1

VA

McDonnell  58
Deeds      41

Maine
Yes        50.1
No         49.9

And I'll just take a maple iced donut.

Predictions..
VA:

McDonnell: 58
Deeds: 41

NJ:
Christie: 47
Corzine: 46
Daggett: 6

NY-23:
Hoffman: 50
Owens: 44
Scozzafava: 6

Maine:
Yes: 52
No: 48

------
Charlotte Mayor:
Lassister: 52
Foxx: 48

prediction
NY-23
Hoffman 49
Owens 47
Scozzafava 4

NJ-Gov
Corzine 46
Christie 45
Daggett 9

VA-Gov
McDonnell 56
Deeds 44

Maine Question 1
No 52
Yes 48

My Guesstimate
NY-23
Hoffman 48.1%
Owens 43.9%
Scozzafava 7.2%

NJ-Gov
Corzine 45.3%
Christie 45.2%
Daggett 7.3%

VA-Gov
McDonnell 56.9%
Deeds 41.1%

Maine Question 1
No 50.3%
Yes 49.7%

Somewhat optimistic
NY-23: Owens 47%, Scozzafava 7%, and Hoffman 46%
NJ-Gov: Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%
VA-Gov: Deeds 45% and McDonnell 54%

Pull the plug on Paul Broun!
Hoping for 3-1, but probabaly 2-2
NY 23: Hoffman 48, Owens 47, Scozzafava 5
NJ GOV: Corzine 47, Christie 42, Daggett 11
VA GOV: McDonnell 59, Deeds 40
Maine Question 1: NO! 51, yes 49
Election prediction thread
Election prediction thread
NY 23rd:
Owens: 42%
Hoffman: 41%
Scozzafava: 7%

NJ-Gov
Corzine: 44%
Christie 43%
Dagget: 13%

VA-Gov:
Deeds: 42%
McDonell: 58%

Main Question  #1:
No 51%
Yes 49%

Predictions
NY-23
Owens: 47%
Hoffman: 46%
Scozzafava: 7%

NJ-Gov
Corzine: 46%
Christie: 44%
Daggett: 10%

VA-Gov
McDonnell: 55%
Deeds: 45%

Maine Question 1
Yes: 47%
No: 53%

Prediction
• NY-23 - Owens 47%, Scozzafava 8%, and Hoffman 45%
• NJ-Gov  - Corzine 46% Christie 44% and Daggett 10%
• VA-Gov - Deeds 44% and McDonnell 56%
• Maine Question 1 - yes 48% and no 52%  
Election 2009 Predictions Contest | 174 comments

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