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NY-23: Scozzafava Bowing Out!

by: DavidNYC

Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 11:59 AM EDT


WOW:

Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP's chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.

"In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money-and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record," she said in a statement.

"It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican."

On first blush, this seems like bad news for Democrat Bill Owens. While there isn't much time left, it allows Doug Hoffman to consolidate the Republican vote.

UPDATE: Dave Weigel reports that the chairman of the Independence Party is now endorsing Owens:

I just got off the phone with Frank MacKay, state chairman of the New York Independence Party, which had endorsed Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election. While Scozzafava has suspended her campaign, she will remain on the ballot as the candidate of the Republican and Independence Parties. MacKay can't change that, but he told TWI that the party probably made a mistake in endorsing her over Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

"Some of our local organizations have endorsed Hoffman now that Scozzafava is out, and I want to be careful and respect their decisions," said MacKay, who lives in downstate Suffolk County. "I don't have a vote in the district. But if I did, I would vote for Bill Owens." ...

"If I knew how chaotic the Scozzafava campaign was going to be, I would have gone with Owens in the beginning," said MacKay. "That certainly was a disastrous campaign."

ANOTHER UPDATE: I was about to put up a post about Siena's newest poll, though it seems a bit moot. I had already written it up, though, when the Dede news broke, so here you go:

Siena (PDF) (10/27-29, likely voters, 10/11-13 in parens):

Bill Owens (D): 36 (33)
Dede Scozzafava (R): 20 (29)
Doug Hoffman (C): 35 (23)
Undecided: 9 (15)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

Siena's numbers confirm R2K's - Dede was in utter freefall.

ONE MORE UPDATE: A dispiriting tweet from Tom Jensen:

With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman

Those are very different numbers from what Siena and R2K have shown, though.

EXTRA UPDATE: Unsurprisingly, the NRCC is endorsing Hoffman. Scozzafava herself didn't endorse Hoffman, but it's easy to read between the lines:

"It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations," she said.

"Most liberal candidate in the race" my ass.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: Charles Franklin points out that the Siena internals look bad for Owens:

Can Owens pick up from Scozzafava supporters? Not so likely given these poll results.

Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50
Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57

Looks like a wash with many likely to skip the choice of two disliked alternatives.

And the worse news for Owens is among independents:

Ind. Fav/Unfav Owens: 39/47
Ind. Fav/Unfav Hoffman: 47/33
DavidNYC :: NY-23: Scozzafava Bowing Out!
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NY-23: Scozzafava Bowing Out! | 151 comments
I'd say there's a pretty good chance
that the teabaggers are going to get their congressman. I really thought we had stopped electing these kinds of people from New England.
Even if she didnt drop out
we would have. PPP said after 200 surveys, Hoffman was winning big time. The results were-
Hoffman 45-Owens 26-DeDe 17
[ Parent ]
That's a lot to base on one day-long small sample
PPP has noted in the past big changes between days when nothing should have caused them.  A Friday part of a survey earlier this month showed Corzine doing very well, but the final product showed a close race.  And the early results a Virginia survey a few months ago showed far more birthers in the state than the final survey found.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Really PPP ought to trash the current survey
and start running a new one tomorrow through Monday. Nothing else will be of much use.  
[ Parent ]
Tuesday release?
Thatd be pointless though
[ Parent ]
Nah, turn it around Monday night before the 11PM news
Otherwise, everyone's flying blind. (Well, that's where we are anyway).
[ Parent ]
PPP's single-day samples are NOTORIOUSLY bad......
If you follow PPP on twitter and on their own blog when they release one-day sample updates, it's the norm that what they learn one day proves completely untrue over the whole survey.

Just one example, their last NJ-Gov poll showed Corzine running away with victory the first day, but by the time the polling was done over 3 or so days, the total sample showed a dead heat.

Now, I don't doubt for a second that some of what PPP will find is DeDe tanking worse than otherwise simply because some survey respondents will be aware she dropped out and either are no longer likely voters or flip to Hoffman or Owens.

But between Owens and Hoffman, it's tough to say who benefits.  Yes DeDe's support was much stronger with Repubs than Dems, but that doesn't mean those Repubs go to Hoffman since they didn't when given that choice before, and there are obvious ideological and personal schisms between Hoffman and Scozzafava supporters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
PPP's one day samples have had
strange results before. Other polls had the race essentially tied.  I expect now that Hoffman will consolidate the Republican base.  
[ Parent ]
Pataki
All the other polls were taken before the Pataki endorsement.  
[ Parent ]
Endorsements are good at best
for a few points here or there. You're talking about one man producing a ten point swing essentially overnight, which I think is very unlikely.  
[ Parent ]
Its Pataki
Hes huge up there. And thats not the only factor. Undecideds had kept breaking towards him, and so had Republicans
[ Parent ]
It's possible
but really impossible to test. The race is too fluid.  
[ Parent ]
partial poll results don't mean anything
200 respondents in the middle of a poll is not a significant enough sample to draw any conclusions on -- I'm really surprised that PPP said anything about those mid-polling results. Raw totals like those need to be augmented by at least another 200-400 responses, weighted for geography, demographics, party ID, likely voters, etc before they have any significance.

That result is completely at odds with the two other complete polls in the last two days -- Siena and R2000 -- both of which showed a 1 point Owens lead over Hoffman (with Scozzafava drawing barely 20).

I think that Hoffman will pull out a narrow win, but the idea that he is "winning big time" is not borne out by real evidence.
 

[ Parent ]
PPP routinely shares partial results...
...on its blog and Twitter account.  It's a tease to keep people interested.  And there's nothing wrong with it at all, as in my observation they don't misreport or mislead in sharing partial results.  You just have to be careful not to get excited or depressed based on them, and know the direction can change in a hurry with later surveys.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
There is plenty unprofessional about it
It's like cutting the head off a live chicken infront of people in a restaurant.  It's stupid and unhelpful.  Show people your finish product... showing a half-done product, especially a mathematical one, is preening, not professional.
[ Parent ]
I think it's fine
I've always liked PPP for their transparency.  It's a nice sneak peak and keeps people coming back.  As long as it doesn't affect the poll results it's fine by me.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Half-baked != transparency
Polls are only useful when a certain scientific sample is accumulated and weighted properly.
[ Parent ]
It's not a sneak peek
I'm with tommypaine. It's unprofessional and serves no purpose but to allow people to fool themselves that they're insiders getting an early look at something meaningful. There's no way it can be anything but misleading.
[ Parent ]
I'm on a similar page
But a junkie just has to look! :)
[ Parent ]
Kind of my opinion
on them releasing pre-polling info.  It's useless, its anecdotal in the short term, and I want to read it every chance I get.
[ Parent ]
NY-23 is not at all typical
of New England. It is much more rural and has substantial French-Canadian influence (though I think that leans Dem).

Plus Hoffman has not actually won yet.

Plus it's a special election.

So drawing sweeping conclusions about Yankee Republicanism should be avoided.

[ Parent ]
not very French-Canadian
The only area of the district with a significant French-Canadian heritage is a corner near Plattsburgh. (And yes, traditionally French-Canadians and other Catholic voters in New England have been Democratic - although that pattern has been breaking down).  

You'll find significantly higher French-Canadian concentrations in most of New England -- all of Maine, NH, Vermont, and RI, as well as a good chunk of Massachusetts (especially around Springfield and the west, Worcester, and other old mill cities) and some of the old industrial towns of Connecticut.

The flavour of NY-23 is one of small cities and towns, with significant rural population, and lots of economically struggling areas.  Ethnically the largest element is Yankee, and lots of ethnics (especially Italians, Irish and some Poles).  It is a gun rights area.

The district has a number of college towns, several military institutions, Lake Placid, a couple of Indian reservations, and lots of sparsely populated mountain territory.

Like much of upstate NY, it has become increasingly dependent on government spending as the traditional industries have disappeared. The military, the St Lawrence Seaway, border security, state prisons, state universities, international trade,  government supported dairy/agriculture, hydro and wind power, and a number of other government or government supported industries are the heart of employment. As a result, the area is far less open to attacks on the government that many other parts of the country.

The district is, in many ways, a lot like a northern New England district, moving towards the Democrats at about the same speed as a place like New Hampshire or northern Maine.  

[ Parent ]
Technically
New York isn't part of New England. New York is part of the Northeast though. On the topic of this race, it looks like voters might elect a third party candidate for Congress since they last voted for Bernie Sanders in 2004 in Vermont.

Of course, once this Hoffman guy gets in I totally expect him to sit with the Republicans.

[ Parent ]
Technically, you're right
but as a political matter, you can't get much closer to Vermont.  
[ Parent ]
New York is not part of New England!
It was New Netherlands!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Easy way to piss off New Englanders:
Insinuate that New York, New Jersey, etc is part of New England. The definition is MA, CT, RI, VT, ME, and NH, no more, no less.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Fairfield county
Fairfield County CT could be excluded.  It is NY suburbs.  This area elected the last "New England" congressman (Chris Shays). It doesn't feel like New England.
[ Parent ]
True, it's Yankees territory
But it usually gets included just by virtue of the entire state of Connecticut being in there. Just like how Virginia is considered a Southern state even though Fairfax County isn't culturally Southern.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily a sure thing for Hoffman
My sense (from across the lake in Vermont, watching upstate NY news) is that Hoffman had already cornered the hard core Republican vote.

A significant of those voters who were sticking with Scozzafava after the right wing assault on her were probably in tune with her socially moderate stands -- I really wonder if pro-choice, pro-gay, pro-labor pro-environment centrists are going to give their votes en masse to a far right winger like Hoffman. (Much of the support of Scozzafava's campaign was coming from groups like NARAL, some unions, etc).

There is a lot of resentment among mainstream upstate Republicans about the influx of out of state right wing activists playing out their national power game on the voters of the district.

Like most of the Northeast, the 23rd has been steadily trending Democratic in response to the takeover of the national Republican party by the far right. It is a district that has voted for Obama, Hillary Clinton, Spitzer, Andrew Cuomo, Schumer, etc.

I expect this will still be a very close race - Hoffman will probably pull out a win because of the sense that his campaign has momentum - but Owens still very has a shot of winning.  

My Prediction
Owens will break 35. Hoffman will break 35. Either Owens or Hoffman will win, by a margin of less than 30 points.
Really going out on on limb there? eh?


28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Anything can happen here
She remains on the ballot, people have already voted for her absentee. I suspect her support won't collapse completely even though she has suspended. I think the big question is where do her Republican supporters go? I'm not taking any notice of PPP because there is too much noise involved plus they have never polled the district before.

Siena has Scozzafava with 29 of Republicans. With all the Hoffman momentum the fact she still had that is important. They are obviously McHugh moderates. Some will go to Hoffman but probably not a majority. Some won't vote at all, some will still vote for her, Owens gets a few. She has 11% of Dems - they'll most go to Owens. Most interesting is the 15% of independents because overall Hoffman only leads with indies 40-35. He probably wins but I don't think its a slam dunk.

Which is pretty much
[ Parent ]
Absentee is the thing...
for Owens to have a shot, a huge number of Dede's supporters would've had to switch over to him.  Every one that already voted for her by absentee ballot is one less that Owens can have.

I'd be INCREDIBLY shocked and surprised if Owens won this thing now.

[ Parent ]
I have NO idea how good Owen's absentee program is but if it's doing better than Hoffman he's got a very good shot
Scott Murphy's program was very good so I'm hoping history repeats itself.  If Owens has his votes more in the bag he can concentrate on the Dede people who haven't voted yet.  This hold true in any race but especially a chaotic one like this.

Obama did very well with absentees and so did Murphy so hopefully this continues.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I think SurveyUSA has repeatedly shown Corzine leading among those who already voted
so I think the Dems are doing a pretty good job with early voting this cycle...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Skimming their recent polls, Dems (and the "yes" side in the domestic partnership measure in Washington) do slightly better with those who've already voted versus those who haven't
Sometimes it's within the margin or a very small sample but it may be a trend.  With luck Owens has banked in a good chunk of voters already.

Judging by how badly Dede's campaign went I wouldn't expect her to have that great of an early voting program (though I guess it may not be fair to assume the campaign didn't do something right).  Hoffman's campaign probably doesn't have the voter list necessary to pull one off I'd guess.  But we'll see...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
FWIW according to SUSA...
... 9% of those who already voted in New Jersey are undecided.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
You didn't hear about the third-party candidate Ima Undecided?
Seriously, if these people really just don't want to say who're they're voting for why do they stay on?  It's probably only like 10 people but still, weird.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Yeah wtf.

[ Parent ]
And it's one less vote Hoffman can have
The whole "game changing" nature of this development is that it supposedly allows the Republican base to consolidate by sending Scozzafava supporters over to Hoffman. But votes locked in prior to the announcement are totally unaffected by it - they reflect the reality prior to, which according to all the polling ought to benefit Owens, at least slightly so.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
There won't be that many absentees
In the NY-20 election, there were about 6,000 out of 161,000 votes cast, so a little less than 4%. If the election ends up being as close as NY-20, of course, that would be the deciding factor.
[ Parent ]
So...wait
Independents in the district like Obama, and they also like Hoffman.

This doesn't make a lick of sense. Maybe Americans are too stupid to be trusted to pick their government.  

Or
Perhaps this is yet another case of small subsamples producing off-kilter results.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Bingo, JFM110. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Quiz question
Who ends with the higher percentage - Scozzafava or Daggett?
Hi SSP community
Greetings from the other side of the world - Australia.

Like all of you I was stunned at DeDe's withdrawal.

Just wanted to say as a House race addict the analysis on both sides of this race on this site has been superb - well done all.

The alacrity and incisiveness of the comments post Dede withdrawal have been nothing short of superb. Well done all of you.

Personally I think she withdrew too early. The DCCC now has a bit of time to respond. For maximum effect she should have waited 24 hours.

My tip for tuesday? Who cares what I think it's been an enthralling race.

:)

Benawu from Down Under.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

What makes you think she WANTED any effect?......
She's not endorsing either opponent.  She and Hoffman share the same de facto partisan tent (he pursued the GOP nomination and took the Conservative line only later), but she's ideologically closer to Owens.  And really she's probably got some raw emotions right now toward Hoffman since he's THE reason she lost ANY chance of victory.  She likely would have lost to Owens in a 2-way simply because she ran such a poor, and often non-existent, campaign.  But she at least still had a realistic path to victory in a two-way against a Democrat.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Pretty cool that an Australian is so interested in American politics
My 2 cents regarding the too early thing: I think it's too late for the DCCC to do anything anyway. The election is in 3 days, it takes time to collect polling data showing them how to respond to this development. Especially considering that it's the weekend and by the time Monday rolls around we will be in the final 24 hours.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
They have a wealth of polling data
They will just have to make assumptions from it and act accordingly. They have to at least try. All is not lost.
[ Parent ]
I would love to be a fly on the wall at...
...the DCCC offices and the Owens campaign offices.  What do they think of this?

Either they have enough data and other knowledge of the district to know who DeDe's voters are and know the likely result on Tuesday from DeDe dropping out, or they're as clueless as we are on how this will go.

It still comes down to whose GOTV operation is better, and frankly DeDe had no operation to speak of.  It wasn't just money for media buys she lacked, she had no field operation to speak of.

My honest best guess is that this actually will end up close on election night, the winner taking it by 5 points or less.  I think people writing off Owens are making hasty and dubious assumptions about Scozzafava's remaining support before today, and they won't give Hoffman a net advantage.  I'm guessing a significant share are loyal personally to DeDe and won't vote at all, and the remainder will be split between Owens and Hoffman based on ideological alignment.

I could be wrong, and Hoffman could run away with it based purely on his own momentum.  I feel pretty confident Owens WON'T run away with it, unless GOTV disparity proves huge and decisive, but I wouldn't count on that disparity moving numbers THAT much since they're usually worth only a few points.  But it is a special, and GOTV matters more in specials than in generals or even primaries.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I pretty much agree
The pundits seem to missing the fact that, according to Sierra, Dede's supporters aren't typical Republicans.  They love Obama even if they dislike Owens and Hoffman.  I have the feeling the split between Republicsns who vote Owens because they like Owen and those who support Hoffman out of party loyalty will be close to even if these numbers are right.  (though PPPs tweets put doubt on that)

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Party loyalty?
Party loyalty would mean casting a "wasted" vote for Scozz.

These people, if they haven't yet committed to Hoffman, aren't the type to stomach Hoff's wingnuttery.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Party loyalty for most is going with the pick of what's now all the Republicsn leaders
They may not value party loyalty the most but a good chunk will put helping the party over a wasted vote.  They may have liked Dede more than the GOP but not so much when she's dropped out.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
re Party loyalty
With the RNC and the NRCC both now endorsing and supporting Hoffman, he is now effectively the official Republican candidate. (It's just too late to revise the ballot, obviously)
I would think a "loyal to the party" Republican now votes for Hoffman on Tuesday.
[ Parent ]
Just to echo that
We here in the UK are also stunned by Scozzafava's move - and are grateful to the SSP community for the continued top-quality analysis!

I couldn't do without my fix of your horserace horsesense guys - thanks!

Fingers crossed for Owens!

[ Parent ]
Upside?
Presuming Hoffman wins, I guess we can safely guess no who's gonna be out on his ass after 2010 redistricting.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
*now
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
It could be either Hoffman or Christopher Lee in NY-26......
I imagine if we enter redistricting with Governor Cuomo (and not Governor Rudy, since Paterson is toast no matter what he decides), and Dems hold the State Senate, then we're looking at a gerrymander throwing together Hoffman and Lee.  Peel the Democratic areas out of 23 and 26 to bolster purple-district Dems, and then give the GOP its token House seat with Lee and Hoffman fighting it out.  Meanwhile, Peter King will retire SOME day, and we'll have a good shot at that one, too...but I don't think there's a way to gerrymander him out when all the nearby seats are Democratic-held.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
That would be quite a feat
considering Lee lives outside of Buffalo and Hoffman is in Essex County. The district would have to stretch across the entire state.
[ Parent ]
Hoffman lives in NY-20
His current home isn't in the 23rd, it is in the 20th (represented by special election victory Scott Murphy) - although he grew up in Saranac Lake which is in the district and says he will move back there if he wins.

You're absolutely right -- it would be nearly impossible to throw Lee and Hoffman into the same district -- there is far too much territory between the two men and the two districts.

Presumably, a Democratic redistricting could dismantle the 23rd as it currently exists -- allowing Murphy's 20th to pick up Clinton County and other Democratic leaning parts of the 23rd, while moving the rest of the district into other neighboring districts, presumably being absorbed into the current 21st, 24th and 25th.

Under such a scenario, Hoffman would have to decide if he wanted to run in a district designed for Murphy, or if he would chose to compete in another district where other parts of the 23rd had been assigned.

[ Parent ]
Unless Murphy and Arcuri show strength in 2010
I'd think the D legislature concentrates R areas in Hoffman's district, if he were to win and retain the seat in 2010.

I get the impression that the Congressmen around Chris Lee (Slaughter, Massa) are in better shape.

[ Parent ]
The GOP has exiled its moderates. But does that really help us?
Independents seem perfectly fine with supporting a tea-bagger.  It's only one district but a Hoffman win or even a close race would seem to indicate that the far right isn't actually isolating the GOP.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Not true, it's all about WHICH independents are turning out......
There are liberal independents, moderate independents, and conservative independents.  Some of the Republican bleed the last few years has come from conservatives, not all from moderates, with some conservatives becoming independents (with few if any actually becoming Democrats, I imagine).  The weird dynamic of this race likely means that we're seeing conservative independents, including former GOPers, getting more interested and tipping the turnout model more conservatively than a normal midterm turnout model.

That said, DeDe's late dropout makes the outcome completely unpredictable, and I don't think any polling already done or still in the field is useful anymore.  The assumption that DeDe's dropout helps Hoffman may or may not be true.  She was bleeding so much support from all camps that it's impossible to know who her remaining voters before today really were, and what they're likely to do.  Indeed, I bet a significant percentage of her remaining support haven't even considered a second choice, and they don't know right now what they'll do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Also people voting for Hoffman
Calling themselves independents when asked even if they are Republicans. I agree that it is completely up in the air. The most we can say about her supporters is that they dislike Owens slightly less than they dislike Hoffman. That could make a difference. As could the fact some people have already actually voted for her and some likely still will.
[ Parent ]
Hope you're right
If Hoffman looses it barely wins he probably won because of abnormal turnout.  But a fairly big win (4% or more) points to more mainstream appeal.  Hopefully there will be a poll showing what % of moderates he gets.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Should have been "loses it or barely wins"
iPhone writing is hard sometimes.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
All I can think is that this hurts Owens.
I hope I'm wrong.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Teabaggers
are already celebrating. But this does make an Owens victory that much harder.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
Frankly the CW on this race has switched too much regarding this race to know
Yesterday it was "Dede and Owens split moderates, giving Hoffman a chance.". The people who've ready voted for Dede are gone but other moderates aren't.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
Amusing how the Hoffman message has been him versus two liberals yet one drops out and now it means he wins automatically? Must be the Rove math!
[ Parent ]
Independent favorables
Those are much different to the Research 2000 numbers.

Owens 31 24 45
Hoffman 53 14 33

Hoffman approval must partly be Republicans calling themselves indies.

We need attack ads on Hoffman
ASAP
[ Parent ]
They are up on the air
They have been for a couple of weeks

The airwaves are full of ads -- the DCCC has a couple of ads attacking Hoffman -- we see them all the time on local stations here -- you can see them both at the DCCC website.

http://dccc.org/content/races/...

[ Parent ]
what we should be doing immediately... a partial list
As this was always a competitive threeway race,
The Dtrip should have already identified who their Number 2s were (Owens as a 2nd choice after her)and what issues will turn those voters

Immediately step up their GOTV ground game with busing union activists from the region to blanket the district -- starting tomorrow.

Immediately work her for an endorsement, unlikely but the calls should be made.

Immediately drop mail (yes there should be time to do it immediately) and phones and canvassing to her identified supporters.  Theres no reason every "1" voter for her and every "2" for Owens isnt called yet tonight/tomorrow and turned based on their likely issues.

A certain amount of her supporters will likely sit it out but theyre now all up for grabs and the Ds need to react
immediately to pull this out yet.

A certain amount of wasted votes will still go to her on election day as well as for whatever absentee/early vote
program she had been running.  Watch to see if these wasted votes here and on election day is greater than the
overall margin.

Huddle with your media consultants to review and change up new ads. Increase media buys and preempt Hoffman where
possible.

Hoffman may have momentum, but... remember this is still a special election and is ALL ABOUT TURNOUT.  

NEVER QUIT!

Tangentally related
Is there going be a poll closings/race guide for next Tuesday?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Virginia
Polls close at 7 Eastern.

Races to watch:

Statewide - Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General
Republican-held House seats - 6, 7, 13, 14, 17, 42, 52, 73, 82, 86, 91, 93
Democratic-held House seats - 3, 21, 23, 32, 34, 35, 38, 41, 43, 44, 51, 64, 67, 83, 87

See my targets analysis for a general breakdown of how the races look. A couple changes from then -- I think the 3rd is as good as gone at this point, and the 87th is back on the map because the Republican has pulled a bunch of money out of nowhere. Also, I think the 23rd, 51st, and 64th should probably be considered tossups at this point. If Jody Wagner does particularly well in the 82nd (her home district), that might come back on the board as well. It's a tough district but I've been getting mailer after mailer from the Democrat but nothing from the Republican.

I've also added a few Dem seats to the list (38, 41, 43) which I don't expect to be close (i.e. single-digit margins) but are marginally vulnerable if McDonnell does particularly well.

[ Parent ]
And yes
that is a lot of House races to keep tabs on, but don't worry, I'll be posting updates of seat changes as election night goes on.
[ Parent ]
Last Update
Your last update doesn't make sense period. I realize you're just posting what someone else wrote, but couldn't you at least make a note about how it doesn't make any sense? Those numbers are GOOD for Owens...he's faring BETTER among Scozzafava supporter than Hoffman is, how do you spin that as BAD? And yes, his numbers among independents are slightly worse but Owens is still leading by one with the votes of those independents already factored in to the poll. The only number that matters here is where the Scozzafava supporters go and it looks like that's to Owens, if only by a slight margin. Since he's already (barely) leading, a slight margin is all he needs!
slight margin?
Owens is at -8 and Hoffman is +14, that's a 22 point difference.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's exactly his point
Independents don't matter they are already factored into the results. The only thing that matters is Scozzafava supporters (and undecideds).  
[ Parent ]
err
Sorry, previous post was meant to refer to the assertion that Owens' numbers among independents were "slightly worse."

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The point is that
I think we can expect the bulk of the Republicans who were voting for Dede to switch to Hoffman, not Owens. If that's the baseline assumption, then Owens needs to pick up more than his share of outstanding independent voters. That seems unlikely.
[ Parent ]
But what kind of Republicans are they?
Are they movement Palinistas or the type of old-fashioned New York Republicans who crossed over to vote for Obama, or even more recently Scott Murphy? The deep ideological rift within the GOP confounds us from, I think, making the kinds of traditional assumptions that you are suggesting.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
The movement Palinistas
aren't calling themselves Republicans here.  That's what's screwing this up.  The "independents" aren't the same moderates as they were in 2008.  Now it's the teabagger/Palinista crowd...so fed up with the toxic GOP they refuse to align with it when asked.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
thank you for really spelling this out
it needed to be said in this manner so dumbies like me finally understand what many of you have been saying.  ;)
[ Parent ]
how do you figure that ...
bulk of Dede supporters will switch to Hoffman when:

Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50
Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57

??? what am I missing ??? it seems like a wash, w/ a slight Owens advantage (btw, I'm not sure where the above numbers come from; they are quoted in the diary but I can't find them; but if true, then race is still very winnable for us)

also, what I do see is: Obama - favorbale 59%; perhaps Biden should be joined by the President in Watertown ?

[ Parent ]
PS ...
I just clicked on the Charles Franklin link and he seems to have changed his storyline from "bad news" to "mixed news"  
[ Parent ]
Another note
on this issue. If you accept the premise that the majority, or a large part, of the people who were still planning to vote for Scozzafava were doing so because they were loyal to her as a candidate, than that is very favorable for Owens. Hoffman and a lot of the national establishment are the ones that forced Scozzafava out of this race, not Owens. If these voters feel loyalty to her, they probably feel pretty shafted by Hoffman just like Dede likely does.
[ Parent ]
there's an interesting link ...
within the Charles Franklin link -- a graph that shows basically 2/3 of Scozzafava voters having favorable view of Obama (very much unlike Hoffman voters) ...

Franklin writes: "If this race were a referendum on Obama, then the Hoffman voters look just like they should-- angry anti-Obama folks, while the Scozzafava and undecided look a lot more positive to Obama, and hence potentially attractive Democratic voters.

Perhaps the best move Owens can make in the last three days is to drape himself in the cloak of Obama, hoping to bring home those wavering 25% of Dems, and use this favorable view of Obama among Scozzafava and undecided to bring in the margin of victory."

this all seems like Politics 101 to me: BRING IN OBAMA !

I'm of the same opinion.
Scozzafava voters are not of the same brand as Hoffman supporters. Owens can win her voters with the help of Obama.  
[ Parent ]
Outtatime IMO
My guess is that Hoffman rides this momentum to the win.  
[ Parent ]
Jensen says PPP are finding
Obama has negative approval in the district. Nonsense.
[ Parent ]
PPP is constantly finding much lower approvals
for Obama than almost anyone else. I think it's their likely voter screen.  
[ Parent ]
If the electorate is conservative enough for Hoffman to win than Obama's approvals probably aren't great
I have the feeling Siera's are a bit too high.  Even if Hoffman doesn't win the electorate is probably a bit more conservative than last years anyway.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I would think so
But I'd say Siena are more likely to have a reliable poll in New York. And Research 2000 had 50-42 approve.
[ Parent ]
Don't expect good Corzine numbers either
But after the wild swing in South Jersey I'm not really taking much notice of what they say. I'm waiting for Monmouth, Rutgers, Quinnipiac and Survey USA before I even think about getting worried or making a prediction.
[ Parent ]
Totality of polling, as always......
I notice PPP's last Virginia poll had Obama's job approval at 42-54.  WaPo had it at 54-46, and Rasmussen 49-51.  Rasmussen previosly had Obama in the low 50s several times in a row, and WaPo in the low 50s in its previous two Virginia polls.  And this in spite of these three pollsters in the same ballpark on the VA-Gov topline in contemporaneous polls over a couple months.

So yes, it really depends on the likely voter screen and the turnout model overall.

I don't care what PPP says by itself, I'll always examine a set of contemporaneous polls for toplines and trends.  That's what gets us to the truth.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Indeed
No one poll should inform totally.  
[ Parent ]
More on PPP and Obama approval
Rasmussen, of all people, found 55% approve of Obama in New Jersey on Thursday. PPP found just 47-45 approve in Jersey last weekend.
[ Parent ]
Whoa there, I'm not so sure.
This district has some of the few counties McCain actually won.  Obama won 63% of the vote in the entire state, while getting only 52% in NY-23.  And we're now seeing nationally Obama's approval numbers revert back to about where he was on Election Night.  People who voted for McCain for the most part don't like Obama all that much anymore.

As such, it's not inconceivable that Obama's approval is negative in NY-23.  In fact, it probably IS the case.  Note that in the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll, Obama's favorability rating (granted, not the same as approval) is only at 50%, with 42% viewing him unfavorably.  Now, isn't it the case that usually one's favorability rating is at the same or higher than job approval rating?  We still see people like Obama personally, even as they don't like his policies.  So if his favorable number in NY-23 is already at 50%, it's actually quite likely he has negative approval in this district.

So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss PPP's numbers here.

[ Parent ]
if i were running the campaign ...
i would still gamble on the side of bringing Obama in.  from the preliminary numbers i've seen, i think PPP is really off on this one (and the local siena people know what they're doing).  and even if it is only 50-42 fav/unfav for Obama, it still means bring him in if it's a close, turnout election.  if you look at the Franklin graphs (in one of the links above) -- it's amazing -- but it appears that proportionally more Scozzafava voters think of Obama favorably (around 2 out of 3) than voters OVERALL (upper 50's) ... a lot of stuff about this race is very counterintuitive.
[ Parent ]
I think it's a safe gamble
Even when polling the favorability or approval of Obama, well, who gives a shit what 100% of the district thinks about the president when only 20-40% of them are going to be coming out to vote?  That's the real question, do the people we need coming out to vote for Owens to get us the win like Obama or not, not the district.
[ Parent ]
Siena says 59% favorable
They know what they are doing in New York I suspect PPP does not.
[ Parent ]
I'd think Hoffman has maxed out amongs former Scozzafava supporters
and those who remained are more favorable to President Obama and thus Bill Owens.

But that's just a gut feel. But with what the DeDe withdrawl has done to the race, gut feel is as good as anything.

One thing that could help Owens - old line Rs endorsing him - e.g. new SecArmy McHugh, former Congressman Martin, some of the local R state Assembly members (watch Janet Duprey), some of the DeDe endorsing newspapers.

Expect a lot of private pressure on McHugh...

haven't thought of that but ...
great point re. McHugh.  In my dream situation: Obama and McHugh stump for Owens in Watertown (I know, just a dream ! and don't think McHugh would be on board; afterall, he is still like a "70% Republican" but if it happened, could easily mean the winning margin for Owens).
[ Parent ]
If McHugh allowed to endorse?
I thought officals confirmed by the Senate (or something like that) can't endorse, campaign, or raise money.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Point: Owens needs NY-23 R leaders to endorse him
if he wants the bulk of those who backed Scozzafava 24h ago.

I don't know the  rules w/r/t cabinet members (and my googles aren't helping) but that's why I also point to David Martin and Janet Duprey - as the biggest pro-Scozzafava names who could swing their backers to Owens.

While Duprey is "just" a NY state Assemblywoman, she may be especially interesting - as she's in the cross-hairs of wingnuts who blame her for Scozzafava's nomination in the first place. (Duprey is also a pro-gay marriage R, depicted as Scozzafava's BFF in the NYS Assembly.)

I wouldn't be surprised if Duprey gets a call from Emanuel or even from POTUS.

[ Parent ]
Gay Marriage
That would not be the reason for an Owens endorsement. He, like Hoffman, is against gay-marriage
[ Parent ]
Missing my point
We need Scozzafava's voters to win NY-23 - and her backers need us.

Just google Duprey's name, and you'll see that she's at or near #1 on the list for wingnut revenge for this election.

I think the only way she and other NY area Rs (there are at least 5 NY R Assembly Members who endorsed Scozzafava) is to endorse Owens in exchange for some sort of cover by the Obama administration.

[ Parent ]
Correct
Tauscher had been endorsing that one state senator in filling her seat but was told that she needed to stop being advertised as a supporter of him as she is now a state Dept. employee.

Although, IIRC, the language used wasn't that definite and it was more, you need to stop because it reflects poorly on our Dept.

[ Parent ]
What I can tell from this thread--tell me if I'm right
1. no one knows what's going on anymore
2. "independents" are now synonymous with "rabid conservatives who've fallen out with the Republican establishment"
3. Scozzafava supporters are the new independents
4. seriously, no one knows what's going on anymore.

Scozzafava has a 20% share, with a 9% undecided share, while Owens is at 36% and Hoffman at 35%.  If the 20% splits 2/3 to one candidate (or alternatively, if 1/3 of them vote Scozz or don't vote at all but the undecideds go with one of them) then that candidate wins.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Glenn, the correct answer is...
...1 and 4.

All we're doing here is laying our bets for bragging rights on Tuesday night or maybe early Wednesday morning!

And I will go optimistic on everyone and bet Owens 47-Hoffman 46-Scozzafava 7.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'll take the over on Scozzafava
It's Halloween.  Some people have voted and others will have no clue she's quit.  I think she'll end up with well over 10%.
[ Parent ]
VERY FEW absentees......
tommypaine, someone else here posted that only 4% of the NY-20 special election voters were absentees.  That one was tight as a tick and so the absentees made THE difference in Murphy's victory.  But you're not likely to get much if any more absentees as a percentage of the total in NY-23 now than in NY-20 this past spring.  And not all 4ish% are DeDe voters, they're surely split 3 ways.

Regarding knowledge of DeDe dropping out, I think you're underestimating how many will know that by election day.  This is a special (yes it coincides with a general, there are also local races on the ballot in some communities, but purely local races don't drive turnout especially since many are not seriously contested), and that means you've got higher-information voters than a regularly scheduled midterm or Presidential.  And DeDe had bled so much support already that her remaining voters are true loyalists who overwhelmingly will KNOW she dropped out.

I think she'll still register real numbers, but considering all of the above I'm actually nervous my 7% prediction is too high.  I'm just betting DeDe has a core of loyalists who are stubborn, much like 3rd-party voters where a 3rd-party candidate actually does reasonably well as is the routine in Minnesota.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
in 2002
Wellstone was no longer on the ballot and .5% of the voters wrote him in.  Thankfully Coleman won by 2% because if it had been closer, some liberals wouldve needed a bitch slap.
[ Parent ]
Seconded
Sometimes I am thoroughly amazed that I spend so much of my day rabidly consuming and engaging in wild conjecture.

That being said, I'm on board with your prediction as well.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Exactly
But I'd actually paint point 3 as pretty good news for Owens, not the blow DeDe dropping out seems to be seen as.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
PPP's latest tweet (late Sat. afternoon)
Hoffman has polled consistently at 45-46% all day, Owens up a little since Scozzafava dropout but still doesn't look close
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st...

Ugh. Not very encouraging for Owens

This PPP poll has to be the least valuable poll ever
Everything changed.  24 hours from now is an entirely different universe than the past 36 hours, including today.  Normal people are not on the edge of their seat about this.  They'll take their 5 minutes to decide what to do after seeing it on TV, and after wearing costumes and boozing or eating candy.
[ Parent ]
I may be imagining this
But I seem to recall Obama's tracking numbers taking an almighty hit last Halloween.
[ Parent ]
You're right but...
It was Zogby.  http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Thought so
But I imagine a Saturday Halloween could be a double whammy with young people out and about. Who knows. PPP seemed out of whack last weekend anyway.
[ Parent ]
Not just young people
But Halloween is an interesting demographic day... single extroverts are not likely to be home, single introverts are.  Wives more often walk with the kids, husbands more often stay home to gibe out candy (and answer the phone), etc.  Polling on Halloween will skew results (as will Thanksgiving, Sunday morning, Friday nights, and other times).

One signal of why this is a goofball sample is not that Hoffman is up, but ost of his rise is at Owens expense.  That makes no sense at all concerning the Dede collapse and news of today.  There is no reason to think that Owens lost 1/3 of his support in two days since the Siena poll.

[ Parent ]
OH NOES!
Say it aloud - we are cowering in fear of PPP's tweets!

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
ROTFLMAO!!! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Here is some information everyone should take to heart before they say Hoffman wins this race.
Remember that race between Murphy and Tedisco?  Obama won that district by 3 points, and Murphy went on to win that district in the special election.  In NY-23, Obama won by 5.22 points.  This may be a squeaker, but I think Owens can win it.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
one more thing
Kerry and Gore both got 47% in this district and Obama got 52%.

In Ny-20 Gore got 44% and Kerry got 46% and then Obama got 51%, We managed to keep this one blue.

Thus with two democrats both 47% in the district in 2000 (a neutral year) and 2004 (a republican leaning year). So all Owens needs to do is outperform the generic Dem and he is moderate enough to do that. In addition, Hoffman is way to conservative for this district and thus he should underperform the generic R. I think this race is absolutely winnable and even though PPP may be very accurate sometimes, they are very new and not experienced enough with states outside of the south, so I do put any weight on their prediction over R2K and Siena. This is my prediction.

49% Owens
46% Hoffman
5% Scozzafava

[ Parent ]
Well the recent vote breakdowns prove nothing more than...
...that it's a purple and winnable district.  It doesn't say who ACTUALLY will show up to vote on Tuesday.

That said, my prediction is very close to yours, at O47-H46-S7.  But I know I'm being optimistic, that it's possible the Hoffman surge is real and overwhelming.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Who knows
This is one race I'm unwilling to make a prediction on.
[ Parent ]
So what should I do the night of Tuesday?
1. Stay up watching election returns.
2. Study for my Wednesday exam or work on my problem set due Thursday.
3. Sleep.

I seem to have had the best luck if I don't pay attention to the election on election night.

Also, I can't stress enough that we should go after Hoffman relentlessly pointing out how he's actually just a garden-variety tea-bagger type and not some golden shining gleaming cool third-party candidate by any means.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The DCCC has already spent a cool million
on this race. They did switch to attacking Hoffman this week, FWIW.

No way I'm going to be able to avoid following the returns, but I expect this Tuesday to be highly disappointing. I will be happy if we win Maine and New Jersey, but we could easily lose both.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah it will disappointing
Lose NY-23, VA-Gov, NJ-Gov, Maine ballot issue then will lost Ted Kennedy's seat then every single Dem seat to teabaggers. Then in 2012 Obama will lose in a crushing defeat to Sarah Palin then the world will end OMG!!!

Seriously, your being way too pessimistic. Well lose VA-Gov that we've known since forever, but I expect us to narrowly pickup NY-23 and retain NJ-Gov and hopefully after that four years from now Jon Corzine will retire from politics for good so we don't have to go through this again.

[ Parent ]
I think Obama is set for reelection
But 2010 is not so obvious. It will be a base election, so Congress needs to deliver. It has not so far.
[ Parent ]
It's in the process
Of delievering, healthcare reform is a tricky and long process. Plus were a year away from 2010 election, at this time no one were predicting we take back Congress in 2006.
[ Parent ]
I'm not making any predictions about 2010
But telling the base how hard to is to get stuff done isn't going to excite them.

Anyway, we're veering off topic.  

[ Parent ]
Yes we are getting off topic
But the base will get excited eventually once we do pass healthcare. It's takes awhile to get something this long and complex like reforming healthcare done. But to be honest, it might of not taken awhile if the Senate Finance Committee wouldn't of dicked around passing their bill (every other committee in Congress assigned to reforming healthcare got their bills passed before the august recess).
[ Parent ]
Ditto
The vote totals could really be anywhere.  This is the most untypical race Ive seen and I think it could be a rather wide range of possibilities, none of which indicate a clear winner.

What I do know is that the race for this seat in 2010 will be ON.  If we lose, get DeDe as our candidate, the DCCC can hook her up with a campaign manager who wont let her make such stupid mistakes, and off we go.

[ Parent ]
Watertown Times endorses Owens
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

I don't know the source for this nugget


During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.

A couple of other snippets from the editorial

Mr. Owens seems to approach politics and challenges with an open mind, a generous spirit and a can-do attitude. He has conducted a dignified campaign in comparison to Doug Hoffman.

Mr. Hoffman is running as an ideologue. If he carries out his pledges on earmarks, taxation, labor law reform and other inflexible positions, Northern New York will suffer.

If we discount the bizarre PPP results
this race looks very much like a tossup.  
[ Parent ]
NY-23
Obama narrowly run this districk.Remember Palin endorsed
Hoffman.This could get Obama voters out.Owens could still
pull It off.Remember this a Republican seat.The fact
a Democrat has been ahead In polls or In dead heat with
third party Right winger Is a big story.This could be the
nail In the Republican party.Moderates are being thrown
out of the Republican party.Remember Palin,and Pawlentry endorsed a Third party candiate not the Republican.Imagne
what would have happened back In 2006 had Hillary and Edwards openly supported Lieberman In general Election
after Lamont won the Primary In CT.Hoffman winning Is not
the end of the world.And Imagne what right wingers will do
Is maine rejects the Gay Marriage bas.Virginia Is a loss
cause.Corzine will probally win In NJ.It Is a dead heat.
Remember Democrats always do better In Votes than polls
In NJ.This race has gone from a double digets Christie lead to a dead heat(some have Corzine ahead others have Christie ahead)
[ Parent ]
no need to push to enter
let your text flow my friend.
[ Parent ]
Uh, wow
I would be extremely surprised if that little chestnut wasn't the product of a very purposeful leak from her camp.

Seems like a not-so-tacit endorsement to me...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
FYI, I've diaried the topic on the sister network
[ Parent ]
Scozzafava's husband has endorsed Owens
Worth noting that her husband Ron McDougall, a labour union leader, publicly endorsed Owens last night.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/i...

This is consistent with the Watertown newspaper's report that she has been privately telling supporters to vote for Owens as pointed out by tietack in a DKos diary -  http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

At the same time, several unions that has been backing Scozzafava have shifted to Owens. And the NY AFL-CIO, which had been neutral (because some member unions were backing Owens, others backing Scozzafava) has now come out in full support of Owens and will be doing GOTV from today to Tuesday. (The Syracuse paper reports that there are 80,000 AFL-CIO members in the district)

I think the initial media spin that Scozzafava's withdrawal sealed the election for Hoffman is being rapidly overtaken by reality on the ground in the North Country. This is going to be a very close election.  

[ Parent ]
Much agreed.
My initial thoughts when I first saw the headline on TPM (just the headline and her picture, and without looking at any commentary) were that this should help Owens. I didn't think that it would help him by much, but in a race like this, "a little help" could be decisive. The tradmed was WAY too quick so hand Hoffman the keys to a congressional suite. He could very well still win due to an energized conservative base, but Scozzafava hasn't done Hoffman any favors. Scozzafava's husband endorsing Owens is nearly as good as an endorsement from DeDe herself. Even if Hoffman wins, I don't think that her withdrawal will have had anything to do with it.
[ Parent ]
80,000???!!!!
If a typical district is 650,000 people, that means 12.3% of the district is a member of the AFL-CIO.  That number is too good to be true.
[ Parent ]
Scozzafava's endorsement is now official
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

It's not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.

In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.


[ Parent ]
She took stock last night
and realized that her career as a Republican is over. Maybe she's angling for an appointment in the Cuomo administration.  
[ Parent ]
One very slight possible good thing: early voting
Between Owens supporters, Scozzafava supporters, and Hoffman supporters, the least likely (in my completely non-data-supported inference) to have early-voted (and thus committed to a candidate) would be Scozzafava supporters.

Also, in that Great Orange Satan thread, I was entertained by someone complaining about someone spelling "coz", citing that the person was wasting z's that were needed to spell this lady's name.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

There are no "early" voters, and absentees are few......
Absentees were 4% of the total in the NY-20 special.

They matter, and in fact the Democrats having a stronger absentee program than the Republicans made THE difference in getting Murphy over the top.  He trailed in election day voting.

But 4% is still very small.

I do agree with you that DeDe might have the smallest number of absentee votes, significantly because she had no real field organization, and it automatically follows she had no absentee program.  Plus t

But I suspect Hoffman, too, doesn't have much of an absentee program.  His field organization is a haphazard patchwork quilt of different organizations helping him out.  Their energy and zeal is real, and Hoffman's surge is real, but that doesn't mean their campaign is as focused on the little things as a campaign wants to be in a tight-as-a-tick outcome.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NY-23: Scozzafava Bowing Out! | 151 comments

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