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NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 1:50 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/26-28, likely voters, 10/19-21 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (35)
Dede Scozzafava (R): 21 (30)
Doug Hoffman (C): 32 (23)
Undecided: 14 (12)
(MoE: ±4%)

The new poll of NY-23 from Research 2000 doesn't go as far as the two Doug Hoffman internal polls in showing the Hoffman surge (they showed him in the lead), but they do give the momentum to the Conservative Party candidate. Democrat Bill Owens has lost a little ground, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has basically collapsed over the last couple weeks. Hoffman's performance is strongest among independents -- I's go 47% for Hoffman, with 28 for Owens and 11 for Scozzafava -- while also leading among Republicans (41 for Hoffman, 34 for Scozzafava, and 13 for Owens).

Scozzafava's approvals have also fallen like a rock (down to 32/46), compared with 38/23 for Hoffman and 36/26 for Owens. We'll get some more confirmation on these trends soon, as Siena and PPP both have polls in the works here too.

There's a lot else going on in the 23rd:

• New 48 hours reports show Hoffman leading the field in fundraising over the last couple days ($32K, including contributions from the leadership PACs of Reps. Steve King, John Linder, and Jeff Flake), Owens not far behind at $27K, and Scozzafava lagging at $12K.

• Newly-formed (i.e. last week) right-wing group Common Sense in America is engaged in some rope-a-dope advertising, running a TV ad that claims that Scozzafava is the "best choice for progressives," in an effort to steer Republican voters away from her and to Hoffman. The group's founder is Arkansas businessman Jackson Stephens, also a board member of the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, there's also an anti-Owens TV ad up from the Hoffman camp, calling him Nancy Pelosi's "lackey."

• The local establishment is still sticking with Scozzafava, as seen by her endorsement from the Watertown Daily Times (Watertown is the core of her Assembly district). However, a who's who of the behind-the-scenes puppetmasters of the movement conservatives (Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, American Conservative Union head David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie) all signed a letter jointly endorsing Hoffman.

RaceTracker: NY-23
Crisitunity :: NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains
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NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains | 75 comments
Hoffman is now leading with Republicans
and has a MASSIVE advantage with independents (many of whom are IDing themselves as such because they aren't voting for the Republican in this race). If Hoffman further consolidates Republican support, he will win.  
That goes for what Chuck Todd was saying
It will screw up the weighting which is exactly why polling special elections is so hard. Particularly in a three-way race.
[ Parent ]
No it doesn't
Party ID is an attitude, which you should never weight for. It would make as much sense to weight for "which candidate are you voting for?"
[ Parent ]
True
But there can't be that many Republicans AND conservative independents in the district. It is upstate New York but it is still New York not Alabama.
[ Parent ]
Oh yes there could
First of all, as a matter of registration, Republicans do still have a massive advantage in the district, as they have since time began. Second, it is very likely that independents are more ideologically balanced overall than is reflected in this poll, but this will not be an election were the "overall" electorate turns out. That's the whole point of conducting a poll.  
[ Parent ]
So then they are independents
Not just Republicans calling themselves independents.
[ Parent ]
I am not a big believer in real independents
At the national level, voters almost always lean one way or another. But in this particular election, conservative (usually Republican voting) Is are turning out for Hoffman.  
[ Parent ]
OK
But the party split hasn't changed from the last poll - still 42-32-26 so I'm not quite getting how this is conservatives calling themselves independents when they are really Republicans when the number of Republcicans hasn't dropped.
[ Parent ]
There's no reason to think
that conservatives weren't calling themselves independents in the last poll. The biggest change here IMO is that Hoffman has picked up lots of Republican support.
[ Parent ]
I'd say that
And the fact indies have swung from 35-32-22 to 47-28-11 here. Would have been nice if they had asked liberal, moderate, conservative both times.
[ Parent ]
Moreover, look at the change in Obama's favorables
between this poll and the last one. Hoffman is getting his base excited to vote.  
[ Parent ]
Let me try this again
"Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district."

So if Republicans are offering themselves as independents in disgust at the GOP then that would explain the skew to the right among indies and would screw up the sample somewhat. Wouldn't it? I'm not saying there is any evidence for that I'm just throwing it out there.  

[ Parent ]
I actually can't parse that sentence, and I'm not sure
it has any meaning in english. Presumably, instead of weighting to the census (a la SUSA), R2K adjusted their turnout model by the percentage weight of registration by _______ (I don't know what "district" means in this context). R2K doesn't say whether they've weighted by party, but I rather doubt they did. I consider that to be bad polling for reasons stated above (you're effectively predetermining what you're supposed to be measuring).  
[ Parent ]
Full paragraph
"Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district."

Since the party breakdown is identical to the last poll it seems to me they probably did.

[ Parent ]
The full paragraph is not helpful
What does district mean in this context? Also, modifying the census weight to the percentage of people registered is not the same as weighting by party registration. FWIW, party ID changes only very slowly.
[ Parent ]
conspiracy is correct, remember Obama won 52% here......
McHugh was a "moderate" Congressman, maybe to DeDe's right but also clearly to Hoffman's left.  And this district just gave an outright majority to a black guy from Chicago named "Barack Hussein Obama."

My informal but obsessive study of election results shows that once conservatives reach or exceed 40% of an electorate, it becomes VERY difficult for a Democrat to compete.  Look at exit polls state-by-state from last year for President, and you'll see "40% conservative" is a pretty good ideological dividing line on Obama's competitiveness.  The national distribution ideolgoically is normally about one-third conservative, one-fifth liberal, and around 45% (give or take a few points) moderate.  A lot more moderates are Democrats than Republicans.  Given that Obama got 53% nationwide and 52% in NY-23, I would guess the ideological distribution in the district is comparable, which is to say Hoffman's ceiling should be low-to-mid-30s since he's running explicitly as an ideological conservative.  I think on election night we're going to see Owens top 40% because the Democratic base is pretty solid.  Hoffman is doing a nice job trying to confuse base Democratic voters between Owens and DeDe, but every poll I've seen shows DeDe very low with Dems, and Owens cleaning up there and more undecideds left than DeDe supporters.  And DeDe collapsing is likely to cost her Democratic voters as much as Republicans; the Democrats don't want to vote for a sure loser any more than the Repubs.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
True on moderates
It always amazes me in the crosstabs of poll after poll to see the Dem crushing with moderates even when they are way behind overall. Creigh Deeds being a good example.
[ Parent ]
There is no reason to believe
that turnout will in any way resemble November 2008. This is the mistake many people make when they proclaim that it is impossible for Democrats to lose Congress in 2010.

Midterm elections (and special election even more so) are all about base turnout.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe Im just ignorant about voter turn-out
being from a state ranking in the top for turnout but I just can't believe that turn-out will drop off so unevenly.  Sure, the GOP base will be hell-bent on voting and they'll all show up, but the Dem base will certainly be coming out in full force as well.  The bases will be there, but where everyone else falls is up in there.

I think our biggest worry should be how much more the GOP base will volunteer and donate to candidates, which of course is where the votes will be made up.

But I dunno, thinking our side will be so depressed compared to the GOP that they can gain 40-something House seats, no way.  Hell, this is the first time we've had the Democrats having the trifecta since 93, if they start pumping out the accomplishments, we'll sure as shit be motivated to keep them in office!  And this should be told to the Blue Dogs, if you want us to show up next year, you better start getting the shit we want passed.

[ Parent ]
andgarden, you're the one making a turnout mistake......
Obamamania wasn't universal, or more importantly universally organized.  I moved to Virginia with my wife and two li'l ones in summer 2008, and it was red hot here, turnout a major effort.

But New York was taken for granted.  The state's primary was very early, on Super Tuesday, and of course it was solid Hillary country, so even for the primary the Obama campaign wasn't doing that much in New York.  And for the general New York was safe for us, organizing would have been limited, and I doubt anyone saw many Obama or McCain ads watching regular TV up there.  And a district like NY-23 would have been particularly ignored, as historically Republican territory in a very blue state.

In a nutshell, you can't assume abnormal Democratic turnout in NY-23 last year.

And turnout in a special election, this one included, isn't like a midterm, it's much more orchestrated by campaigns and party organizations and much less organic than a midterm.

What this adds up to is that we could very easily see a turnout model in the special as or more Democratic as last year in NY-23.  Or it could be more Republican, based on Republicans having two choices and Democrats only one.  Thus, predicting the turnout model is almost impossible.  That's why I've posted questions on this race in a couple threads recently asking what's the scuttlebut on GOTV operations for the various campaigns and their allies.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
My point is that you can guess
or you can poll it. I prefer the latter.

And no, I do not think I am making a mistake. Turnout is always higher--and almost always better for Democrats--in a Presidential election. That's true in upstate New York and just about everywhere else.  

[ Parent ]
Some turnout figures in NY-23......
McHugh won in 2004 by 71-29 with 226,000 total votes cast.

McHugh won in 2006 by 63-37 with 158,000 total votes cast.

McHugh won in 2008 by 65-35 with 218,000 total votes cast.

Turnout actually dropped from the Bush 2004 year to the Obama 2008 election.

And Democratic performance dropped from the last midterm to the last Presidential year, albeit only slightly.

I don't think you can universalize "high turnout" vs. "low turnout" as consistently helping the same party.  That's just too often not true.  And in a special election in particular, again where a bigger share of the turnout is orchestrated than organic compared to a general election, you really can't assume "low turnout helps Republicans."

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Of course, you CAN generalize, but specific
circumstances may supersede the general assessment. In fact, that's a great driving principle why you should not weight to party registration in polling.

In any case, it's quite clear to me that the Republican base is more energized than the Democratic base this cycle. I think that is the relevant anecdote to explain what we're seeing here.

[ Parent ]
the district's population also dropped
from 2004 to 2008.  
[ Parent ]
National vs. local
Turnout for the House in NY-23 was up a little more than 30% vs. 50% nationally.  However in 2008, NY-23 voters cast 40,000 blank votes and 2,000 void or scattered votes.  This was a lot higher than the total for 2006 (14,000).

Maybe this says there were a lot of pissed off voters in NY-23 and Hoffman is becoming a place (rightly or wrongly) for some of them to go.

Dede represents the local Republican party, Hoffman represents the national Republican party and is getting a lot more money.  

[ Parent ]
I'm starting to think Hoffman wins this thing...
I imagine his GOTV effort with the teabagging gang is gonna be awfully strong. Meanwhile, Scozzafava's support is tanking, and yet the biggest paper in the district opts to endorse her. Oh well.
Certainly possible
There has to be latent support for her in her base which is the population centre of the district I believe. If Hoffman is running up the score in the south there aren't the votes there to mean he walks away with it. Also I can't imagine the organization is as good as Owens and Dede with the unions and the national party apparatus.
[ Parent ]
I still say Owens wins going away based on...
...GOTV and a realistic turnout model.

The teabaggers aren't experienced campaigners.  They're not a campaign organization, or even a disorganized group of campaigners.  They're slapped together haphazardly.  Hoffman has 3 field offices, not bad, but not great.

DeDe actually has less on the ground than Hoffman, from what I've read, and that's part and parcel of her personal meltdown rather than a reflection of party organization.  Shockingly, and reflective of DeDe's complete ignorance of what it takes to run on a larger stage, DeDe has only one campaign office in the entire damn sprawling district.

Owens has a conventional GOTV operation with the national party and SEIU doing a lot of legwork.  Owens has the most field offices, 5 of 'em, which matters in GOTV.

I really think Hoffman's current polling is very near his ceiling unless DeDe crashes into Alan Schlesinger territory, i.e., 10ish%.  And I think her base support is too much to fall that low.

So I stick with this prediction:  Owens 45%, Hoffman 32%, DeDe 23%.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
questions and comments
1) ballot placement: is there any disadvantage to being on the conservative line, or is placement essentially the same for all 3 candidates?

2) did you see that all of 10 teabaggers showed up today to demonstrate against Pelosi in D.C. when she announced the healthcare bill (to reinforce your proposal regarding their organization)?

3) how is it even remotely possible that a candidate can be taken seriously in a district when said candidate not only doesn't live in the district, but, more damningly imho, knows nothing about issues important to the district and proclaims his ignorance loudly in an interview with a local paper?

I'm with you on this, Owens wins this one by 4+ points over the crazy guy with yellow teeth.

[ Parent ]
Well, my take on your 3 questions/comments......
(1) I'm of the school that ballot placement is overrated as a factor.  I think virtually all voters once in the voting booth either know who they're voting for and find them, or know who they're undecided between and find those choices.  I've never seen serious evidence that ballot placement affects voting behavior or candidate vote totals.  And I think my point that people find their candidate applies even moreso in a midterm than in a Presidential, and in a special election more than in a general election, since the smaller pool of voters are more engaged and more highly informed.

(2) When I talk about organization, I'm talking about campaign organization and, more specifically, GOTV work.  It takes knowledge and campaign skill to know what to do and how to do it.  That's different from organizing a protest, which teabaggers generally do pretty well, but even then the House bill protest as you point out shows their performance is uneven.  My point is that teabaggers are a protest organization, not a campaign organization.  They're no more well positioned to drive an election today than college Vietnam war protesters were back in the 60s, as they are completely different activities with different goals.  The biggest difference is that GOTV work involves having to leave one's own echo chamber, and that's hard for ideologues.  I'm a liberal Democrat, and the door-knocking I've often done in my own politically mixed suburban McLean neighborhood reinforces that fact.

(3) Regarding Hoffman's personal shortcomings, living outside the district doesn't really matter.  That never really resonates with voters.  Hell, Charlie Brown narrowly lost CA-4 last year to a total carpetbagger from a completely different part of the state.  It happens all the time.  The only problem personal to Hoffman I've seen that CAN have an impact is his ignorance of district-based issues.  But opposing campaigns have to exploit and publicize the fact, it can't just be a small-town newspaper pointing it out and liberal blogs spreading the word to our very small audience that includes virtually no NY-23 voters.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
I wish I knew where to cite this
but it has always been a long-standing tradition that being first on the ballot automatically gives you 1-3% or something.  I have never read the actual scientific study that says that but has been kind of a common fact of ballot placement.

I can kind of see that being more applicable in elections where you have a whole ballot and it more affecting downballot races as most people go to vote for the top of the ticket races and probably are just like, meh whatever circle circle circle I completed my ballot Im done.

[ Parent ]
ballot placement in NY
Ballot placement is not a really big deal in this election.

Conservative Party of NY is considered an official party in NY and has Row D

1st Row is Row A Owens Dem, 2nd Row B is Dede Rep, 3rd Row C is Dede Indepence Party of NY, 4th Row D is Hoffman Conservative Party and 5th is Row D Owens Working Families.

Since this is a special election there most likely will not be much else on the ballot so finding candidates and Hoffman will be a non issue. Anyone going to polls will be going to vote in this Congressional election.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Thought exercise
What if the GOP had simply picked Hoffman, and this was just Owens vs. Hoffman?

Do you think Hoffman could win that?  A far-right teabagger with no electoral experience from outside the district, beating a moderate Democrat in a district Obama won?

If not, then how is Hoffman going to win with an actual elected Republican member of the assembly in the race too?  The R2K poll doesn't show Scozzafava taking significant numbers of Democrats away from Owens (only 13%), in fact she is taking a significant number of Republicans away from Hoffman (34%, holding Hoffman to only 41% of GOP voters).

With the GOP base clearly split, and the Democratic vote mostly united (64% for Owens so far), how does Hoffman win this thing?

Because from the cross tabs
it looks the "independents" are more conservative than the Republicans.

Owens needs to just blast Hoffman on Fort Drum.

[ Parent ]
Yup
Still nothing. Very strange.
[ Parent ]
Independents
See above.
[ Parent ]
Not Hoffman
GOP wasn't going to pick Hoffman. He wasn't even on the radar. The real GOP contender for the nomination was a guy named Matt Doheny. Doheny (an investment banker) raised $300,000 on his own early on plus put up $500,000 of his own money. He had $800,000 in his campaign kitty and the NRCC wanted him to get the nod. While Doheny is pro-choice the Conservative Party would have crossed endorsed him.
It was the local NY GOP that bucked the NRCC and went with Dede.

Scozzafava had threatened to bolt the GOP and run as a Democrat. This treat plus her being tight with local leaders as a local elected official got her the nomination over the National GOP and Conservative Party ojections.

The real back story is the local GOP really wanted the Democrats to run Senator Darrel Aubertine. They would have been happy to take a dive and to let him have the seat in Congress in exchange for giving them a chance to take back his Senate district and give control of the NYS Senate to the GOP.

It just shows you what a corrupt mess the NY GOP is and why a guy like Hoffman could energize their base.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Here's what I think is kind of missing
Have Hoffman's conservative credentials even been tested?  How conservative is he really?  Michele Bachmann, Saxby Chambliss, Orrin Hatch, or George Voinivich?

Im sure he's conservative, but I wonder if he'll even govern as a member of the tea bagger wing and is really just a beneficiary of the tea bagger movement.

[ Parent ]
Methinks you make a distinction without a difference......
Hoffman strikes me as a garden-variety conservative.  And I think that makes the teabaggers perfectly happy.  They don't primary just anyone, they pick their targets.  They're beyond happy in this case because they're pissed at the Republicans for nominating someone too far from conservatism.

I actually don't blame them for being pissed, on the surface there's plenty about Scozzafava for most Republicans to hate.  Even in the Northeast her resume is more liberal than most GOPers today.  It's one thing to be pro-choice but conservative on all else, and the teabaggers accept you as "conservative" because plenty of them really aren't one-issue oriented.  Yes they're batshit crazy, but a lot of them will accept a small amount of ideological deviancy.  But Scozzafava has bolted at times in the past on a whole host of issues, enough so to make her look clearly to the left of perhaps EVERY Republican in the U.S. House today.

I have no idea if Hoffman once in Congress would be an embarrassment or just another conservative backbencher.  But he's said or done nothing embarrassing as a campaigner, and the same can't be said of Michele Bachmann or Steve King on their first runs for Congress.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Hoffman didn't even show up to the debate
Doesn't live in the district.
Doesn't know the issues.
Made a huge gaffe on Fort Drum (at least imho).
Has no electoral experience.

I don't understand why voters think that he deserves to be elected.  

2 headed sword
Has no electoral experience.
What electoral experience does Bill Owens have? What electoral experience did Scott Murphy have?
Doesn't live in the district.
So, I'm guessing you support Harmer in CA-10?  
[ Parent ]
exactly
Nobody really cares. If there was a liberal "third party" candidate that had a shot at winning my district, I wouldn't really care about anything but his positions and outsider status.

All this just makes me wonder how much of the public just straight out does not vote because our political system discourages so many people who lean further left or right than what is represented by the parties. My father is seriously talking about not voting anymore if Obama doesn't deliver, since he doesn't see the point in voting for Democrats if they're just going to be a bunch of corporate whores; my response to this is that letting Republicans win sets us up for the threat of theocracy, and he comes back into the fold reluctantly, but I'm willing to bet that there are a lot of people who either don't think of that, or just think that they're powerless as to stopping it.

Hoffman is picking up a lot of disaffected voters; if he had an R next to his name he'd probably lose, since he'd look like just another corporate a**-hole.

[ Parent ]
you mean two-edged sword


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
YEs
2 headed snake wouldve sounded better lol
[ Parent ]
Meet Amphisbaena
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

(Disclaimer: The reason why it's so easy to defeat it is because he's defeating the first boss very late into the game.)

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Seniors
If Hoffman is really up 37-29-22 among 60+ers, I think he is probably gonna win. This poll also has only 60% age 60+, and 15% age 18-29. I sort of doubt that is what the electorate is gonna look like.

Of course, it being a special election, if the Dems have sent a bunch of people up to do GOTV, maybe Owens can pull it off. GOTV is where he could have an edge - I assume Hoffman does not actually have any actual field campaign infrastructure.

Don't trust those crosstabs, MattTX2......
Age crosstabs are among the most unreliable in any poll because there are a greater number of subsamples and, as a result, each subsample is smaller and has a SKY HIGH margin of error.

Even crosstabs on subsamples with only 2 or 3 categories have much higher margins of error than a total sample, but once you get into the subsamples with 4, 5, or even 6 categories, then the results can't be trusted at all.  You see that many categories sometimes for age and sometimes for income.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Should have proofread, my first sentence...
...should have started, "Age crosstabs are among the most unreliable in any poll because there are a greater number of CATEGORIES and, as a result, each CATEGORY is smaller..."

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
Yes, high MOE for that one thing
But there is a consistent trend of increased Hoffman support by age. You can also see that in the previous poll. And it also coheres with the general trend of older people being more supportive of Conservatives and less supportive of Obama.

So yes, it is possible that Owens is competitive with Seniors, but that is what I'd be worried about.

[ Parent ]
THAT observation by you is very fair, but even then...
...Owens still is winning in the R2K polls, even if by only one point in the latest which, of course, is not statistically significant.

But it matters WHO the old people are, and frankly we're not in bad shape to capture undecideds.

To me I look at the bigger picture and think it's not realistic to think a Democrat in a purple district and running a competent GOTV operation falls below 40% in an open seat here.  Not only did Obama win here, but Gore and Kerry ran very close, both losing to Bush by just 2-4 points.  McHugh was a popular moderate incumbent so he never could be seriously challenged, but in an open seat here, a competent GOTV effort should assure no less than 40% for Owens next Tuesday, 40 or more should be enough to win as I doubt Hoffman can reach 40.  If Owens ends up in the 30s, it means Democrats screwed up GOTV.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Organized GOTV vs. anger GOTV ....
Owens has GOTV in the traditional sense, Hoffman has a different but IMO, just as potent weapon -- anger.  No one is going to have to remind the teabaggers to vote on Tuesday.  And even if they did need a reminder, they will get one, because teabaggers nationwide will be calling them. They may not get a ride to the polls from someone in Georgia, but they will get a reminder.    

Someone asked how can Hoffman win when he doesn't live in the district, has no electoral experience, etc.  The answer is he gets elected to send a message.

It looks quite plausible that 1) Scofava gets less than 20% and 2) Hoffman will win.  Some on here were saying that wasn't possible less than a week ago.  Let this be a reminder that EVERYTHING is possible in politics.

Owens can still win this, if his GOTV is indeed good, but he needs SOMETHING to break Hoffman's momentum. Backlash for not attending the debate might do it, but I doubt it.

   

[ Parent ]
I apologize again for bleating on about this
But any idea why they aren't running ads hitting him on earmarks and Fort Drum? Do they think that would backfire and actually help Hoffman? Seems to me the wingnuts don't need more help.
[ Parent ]
I have to imagine its in the works
We're already seeing the shift in strategy from the DCCC and allies targeting Scozzafava to targeting Hoffman. The Fort Drum issue is very recent grist and they probably haven't yet had time to work out the messaging on it just yet. My best guess is they'll start hammering him on it within 48 hours.
[ Parent ]
A key assumption
What makes us believe every self-identified Hoffman supporter is a teabagging nutcase who'll show up at the polls come hell or high water?
[ Parent ]
Tea phonebanking
You say:

And even if they did need a reminder, they will get one, because teabaggers nationwide will be calling them.

Who is going to be calling who, with what organization and infrastructure that is set up to facilitate it?

[ Parent ]
MattTX2, that's exactly a point I made elsewhere here......
Teabaggers are protesters, not experienced campaigners.  Good GOTV is highly organized and disciplined work that, among other things, requires persuasion outside one's own ideological or partisan echo chamber.

I get every sense that Owens and his allies have the edge in this department.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Hoffman GOTV
I wouldnt assume its too shabby. Susan B. Anthony has sent out 6 volunteers to help with that, and I bet the CfG will be helping him big time with that.  
I'm sure it is much better than shabby
Just that Owens' is probably better and that might make the difference in a tossup.
[ Parent ]
But what will they be doing?
Will they be waving signs around in the air? Randomly knocking on 10 doors and urging random people to vote for Hoffman, then heading back for lunch? Or doing actual GOTV on well targeted voters with cleaned lists (do they even have lists?), good training, etc?

Judging by the pictures on his website, probably not the latter...

I'd take 1 actual properly equipped and trained canvasser over 100 of the people in the picture above.

[ Parent ]
Exactly.
I don't know if the ratio is 100 to 1, but maybe so.
It doesn't matter how angry those folks are, an unorganized angry mob is still just a mob.

The Dem party and Repub party have their lists and data. I assume the Conservative party's prior organization is a joke by comparison.
Plus you got to assume the stuff the Obama campaign must have developed in this district last year has hopefully been incorported now for Owens, too.

[ Parent ]
Is Dede now a spoiler for Owens?
What part of Dede's vote is coming from Democrats? She is very liberal and has a lot of Labor support. What part of her vote is coming from Owens? Are liberal Republicans and Labor Dems who voted for Obama now backing Scozzafava.
Could she end up being a spoiler for Owens?


Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
At the end of the day...
I'll be impressed if she can net 20% of the Dem vote; Owens should be walking away with at least 75-80% of his Party. If he's not, he's in trouble. That Hoffman ad praising Scozzafava for her "progressive credentials" is kinda brilliant.
[ Parent ]
Fridge brilliance?
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmw...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Yes she could
I think Owens would win this race handily without Dede in the race.

Dede would have beaten either Owens or Hoffman one-on-one as well.

The only way Hoffman could have won this race was with two candidates dividing the Democratic and sane Republican vote.

[ Parent ]
oh I was 100% wrong
Weeks ago I was 100% sure that Owens had this in the bag in a security vault protected by 13 marines.  
Scozzafava collapsed
a bit too much for him to be that secure, it seems.
[ Parent ]
Last week when the leftblogs were
doubled over with laughter about her mishaps, I was cringing. Campaigns have collapsed faster.  
[ Parent ]
Fuck
Hoffman is peaking in support at the perfect time.  He very well could win, ugh....  
Pataki Endorses Hoffman
Sorry, its an RS link. This was only confirmed minutes ago, so there is no other link
http://www.redstate.com/blog/2...
This could be the game changer. Pataki is still really popular upstate.
Is anyone else reading deeper into this? Trying to get Conservative support for a Senate election?  
"Is anyone else reading deeper into this? Trying to get Conservative support for a Senate election?"
It's possible. Pataki trying to bolster his conservative credentials by endorser a conservative party candidate running for Congress. Makes sense. Regardless it looks like the party is over for DeDe. How mighty she has fallen.
[ Parent ]
Acording to Politico
Pete Sessions is saying he will welcome Hoffman to the Caucus and that he may have a better shot at winning. They are also waffling on advertisement...just days after focusing on Hoffman, they are now going to focus on Owens.  
[ Parent ]
Of course they'll welcome him...
Sessions sees the writing on the wall. He realizes that DeDe is toast and that regardless of who wins (Owens or Hoffman) that it's a pretty good chance that DeDe will finish 3rd. Hence the switch in attack advertising. Serious regardless of who wins this damn thing who could imagine the trainwreck that is DeDe's campaign. I remember when she entered the race no one thought she would lose, everyone thought she was the perfect candidate, that's including liberals like Kos and look what happened.
[ Parent ]
Its really quite comical

[ Parent ]
Comical, no.
Try insane, but hey that an election without some insanity in it.
[ Parent ]
Biden campaigning Monday
I'd see that as a sign of positive internals.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

NY-23: Owens Barely Leads as Hoffman Gains | 75 comments

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