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NY-23: Owens Pulls Into Lead

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 1:02 PM EDT

Siena (pdf) (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/27-29 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (28)
Dede Scozzafava (R): 29 (35)
Doug Hoffman (C): 23 (16)
Undecided: 15 (21)
(MoE: ±3.9%)

We had a vague sense this was coming, what with the news stories in the last few days describing a faltering Dede Scozzafava campaign low on cash, and rumors abounding in the rightosphere about Republican private polls showing Scozzafava down by double digits. Now we have it out in the open, though: Democrat Bill Owens has opened up a lead in the special election to succeed John McHugh in the 23rd, turning a 28-35 deficit into a 33-29 edge. (Discussion already underway in tietack's diary.)

Owens' gains have come, apparently, simply by better introducing himself to the district. He's never been elected before, but he's been dominating the TV airwaves compared to the other two candidates. That's helped him with Democrats -- he's improved his share among Democrats from 48% to 55% -- and in his home turf of the east North Country around Plattsburgh, where he went from 32% to 45%. Scozzafava, on the other hand, has declined precipitously among the groups where she needs to do best: Republicans, 47% to 40%, and in the west North Country which she represents in the Assembly, 53% to 44%. Conservative Doug Hoffman is buoyed by gains in the part of the district where none of the candidates hail from -- Madison, Oneida, and Oswego Counties near Syracuse -- which is also probably the most conservative part of the district; there, he moved from 20% to 34%, where he actually leads the other two.

The developing meme of the day seems to be "GOP civil war" over this race. The Hill reports that only 17 Republican House members have given to Scozzafava, and a sizable percentage of that 17 is GOP leadership... although with one key exception:

In an effort to prove Scozzafava can attract conservatives, Sessions pushed Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) to step up and endorse her. After his announcement, Hensarling took shots from some prominent conservative blogs and media outlets, with some going so far as to lob unfounded charges about Hensarling's personal life.
Leadership aides blame those incidents on [Republican Conference chair Mike] Pence, and say his decision not to endorse Scozzafava harms cohesion.

With the GOP needing to support centrist candidates in swing districts in order to get back closer to power in 2010, this may just be the tip of the iceberg on a growing establishment/movement schism:

"I don't think this is an NRCC problem. This is a much broader Republican problem," the [anonymous] conservative lawmaker added. "The inability of the Republican coalition to coalesce is going to be a huge challenge for us in 2010."'

RaceTracker: NY-23

Crisitunity :: NY-23: Owens Pulls Into Lead

Tags: Polls, Siena, NY-23, Bill Owens, Dede Scozzafava, Doug Hoffman, (All Tags)

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NY-23: Owens Pulls Into Lead | 43 comments

Just a thought...

Part of me thinks that Hoffman is a bigger threat to Owens than Dede. Any thoughts?

by: benjso99 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 12:30:38 PM CDT

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Possibly...

If the RNCC ditches Scozzafava financially, she's completely done and will most certainly finish in third. If they stick by her, she won't be entirely out-of-the-loop, she'll finish 2nd, and this will probably be a pretty close race, but it is looking more and more like Owens to lose.

On a side-note, I've heard buzz that Rudy Giuliani may endorse Scozzafava early next week.

by: andyroo312 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 12:59:47 PM CDT

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Which certainly doesnt help her

conservative credentials

by: Andrew @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:51:24 PM CDT

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This is New York State

not Arkansas. Giuliani is probably the strongest voice in the New York Republican Party. He is the type of moderate Republican New York still has, to the dwindling extent it has Republicans at all.

by: Pan @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 18:54:10 PM CDT

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Honestly

I don't think Hoffman can get over 20%. There just isn't that kind of rightwing power in this evenly divided, historically moderate GOP district. If this were held in northern Texas, and the GOP nominated someone like Scozzafava, then yeah I could imagine the third-party candidate coming in second. But not here. For Hoffman to actually win he'd probably have to knock Scozzafava down to under 20% of the vote, as I don't see Owens getting any less than 40%. I just don't think Hoffman can unite all parts of the GOP there the way McHugh easily did.

by: skaje @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:01:27 PM CDT

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He wont be able to unite any segments

but I think he could get 20%. Its a split district but that just means 50% of the residents vote Republican and out of that 50%, it certainly seems logical that at least 20% of them line up with Hoffman's ideology.

by: Andrew @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:53:04 PM CDT

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Going with the polling I've been seeing

I think this will end up like 35-35-30 at best for Hoffman, and 40-40-20 at worst.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:20:52 PM CDT

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skaje, I think you're missing a key piece here which is...

...DeDe might be dark the rest of the way. She's out of money. She's the only one with no ad time reserved up to the end. She's now completely at the mercy of the NRCC, but the NRCC ads have been awful and ineffective. And still the NRCC is getting outspent by the DCCC, and Owens' has ample resources of his own to blanket the airwaves.

Meanwhile, Hoffman, too, is on the air, as is Club for Growth as his de facto "NRCC."

If DeDe goes dark and Hoffman is still on the air, then Hoffman becomes the de facto Republican for a lot more base Republican voters.

I pretty much expect Hoffman to finish 2nd.

The only way I see DeDe finishing 2nd now is if the NRCC actually airs attack ads against Hoffman. But I don't see them throwing away money to do that. But then, the NRCC people have been dingbats for several cycles now, with one bad decision after another, so it wouldn't completely shock me.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:31:53 PM CDT

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I follow your reasoning

and it is certainly possible. But I just think there is too much of an institutional barrier to third-party candidates for this to happen. Scozzafava is an elected member of the Assembly! Lack of money or not, her name recognition, and party label, play huge roles in determining base percentages. When the Conservative party refuses to endorse the GOP candidate in New York, they rarely show well. Yes, the circumstances of this election are different, and I guess it being a special election also plays to Hoffman's advantage. Just the same, I will eat my shirt if Hoffman comes in second.

by: skaje @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:42:39 PM CDT

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benjso99, I said exactly that in the other NY-23 diary today......

DeDe is out of money. She's the only candidate of the three not to have air time booked through to the election. So it appears virtually settled she'll be dark the rest of the way. And the NRCC ads have been awful, generically trying to connect Owens to Pelosi and tax hikes without any foundation established for the attacks. The Pelosi tie-in in particular is stupid, voters never care about that.

All this means there is no effective messaging happening for DeDe right now, she's increasingly invisible.

Meanwhile, Hoffman has the resources to be on the air, and the Club for Growth is his de facto "NRCC."

I fully expect Hoffman to finish 2nd, and DeDe 3rd. And perhaps he'll beat her by a wide margin.

But Owens and the DCCC are dominating, with more money than Team Blood Red and Team Merely Red combined.

My prediction now is Owens 45-Hoffman 30-Scozzafava 25.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:24:01 PM CDT

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Who is Hoffman attacking in his ads?

Or is he going after both of his opponents?

by: homerun @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:38:39 PM CDT

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Hoffman is attacking both. (nm)

nm

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:41:33 PM CDT

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FREE FOR ALL!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:42:02 PM CDT

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I actually notice a problem with this poll:

Does anyone thing Obama is more popular with the old than with the young?

Also, I wish Siena would give a party ID breakdown.

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:03:18 PM CDT

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They do give a by-party breakdown in the PDFs

I've listed the topline by party numbers in my related diary - http://www.swingstateproject.c...

by: tietack @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:11:56 PM CDT

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Not what I'm talking about

I want to know the partisan composition of the electorate.

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:23:02 PM CDT

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Local GOP leaders gave Dems another gift!

The local GOP leaders in NY have a talent for picking the wrong candidate. They did it when they nominated Tedisco over John Faso and they did it again when they picked Scozzafava over Conservative Pary objections.

They probably turned an easy GOP win into a Dem pick up.

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by: izengabe @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:18:32 PM CDT

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I dont think NY-23 couldve ever have been an easy GOP hold

unless they chose like Pataki or something. It's a swing district that had a GOP incumbent who locked down support, it would've been a hard fought race regardless.

And why did Tedisco suck as a candidate? Yeah, he lost, but that doesnt make him a bad candidate. One can cite him blowing the huge lead he had but that is entirely because of name recognition.

Im really tempted to chalk up all this upstate NY action and going in our favor not because of the local GOP sucking but because simply upstate has become extremely friendly to us as of late.

by: Andrew @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:34:05 PM CDT

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Dems caught a break

Tedisco didn't live in the district. He never ran a competitive campaign and came across as a hack. John Faso (who believe it or not almost got elected Comptroller statewide) is a good campaigner, he lives in district and has railed against Albany politics for so long that he can't be painted as an Albany Hack the way Tedisco was.

Dems got a lucky break there.

In this race a united GOP would be tough for an unknown like Owens to beat. I doubt he will break 50% in this election.

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by: izengabe @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:52:11 PM CDT

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stimulus

Tedisco's refusal to say whether he'd vote for the stimulus was pretty weak.

by: Foggy Magoo @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:57:53 PM CDT

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Thank God for small mercies

by: fai calif @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:20:34 PM CDT

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My Concern is 2010

Say Owens does win the special election due in part to the Republican schism. What are the prospects of holding the seat when, presumably, it will be a two-way race?

I'm all for Democrats winning the seat if they can, but I'm a little skeptical about pouring money into a race that may result in a one-year flip if the district just isn't there yet, even if he will have the advantage of incumbency. But I confess a considerable amount of ignorance as to the district's makeup.

by: dsimon @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:24:45 PM CDT

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Elected Democrats do not lose so easily in NY

Who was the last elected democratic congressman/woman to lose the general election?

The general elction. Not the primaries. There are many examples of elected democrats losing primaries in NY. Adam Clayton Powell lost a memorable primary to Charlie Rangel 40 yrs ago.

by: fai calif @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:31:02 PM CDT

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I think it was 1994

in Tim Bishop's district iirc, George Hochbrueckner lost to Michael Forbes

by: fatcathobbes @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:58:13 PM CDT

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Thanks

I remember his election. Taxicabs plying on Long Island with his name on it.

by: fai calif @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:45:30 PM CDT

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It's no ID-01 or AL-02.

It's a moderate enough district that, even in a bad year for Democrats, the GOP would probably have to pour considerable resources into to recapture. This is money they'll be unable to spend against other vulnerable incumbents in even more marginal seats.

by: JFM110 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:33:07 PM CDT

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Hillary Clinton

won the district easily in 2006. Granted, not a landslide, but this district will vote for Democrats.

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:39:15 PM CDT

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It's only R+1.

Far from a huge challenge to hold with an incumbent.

by: SC @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:45:11 PM CDT

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dsimon, it's a purple seat, not red......

Obama, Hillary (2006), and Spitzer all won here.

It's not a one-year flip. It's a tough hold, sure, but tough as in purple, not tough as in "Walt Minnick is toast the moment he faces a Republican not named Bill Sali."

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:26:52 PM CDT

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The real trouble is: what are the Dems going to do

when they have to yank a seat from upstate?

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:42:53 PM CDT

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Gerrymander the hell out of upstate

so somehow Chris Lee is forced to run in a blue district, probably. Assuming that Dems continue to hold the trifecta after 2010, I expect the NY congressional map to look ridiculously ugly.

by: Politik @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:52:28 PM CDT

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NY-26, probably

Western New York, as I understand it, is where the population growth has been most stagnant in the state.

by: JFM110 @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:53:03 PM CDT

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Do that, and you create a house of cards

for the incumbents. Dems might sweep upstate in 2012 with the President at the top of the ticket, but 2014 could be a disaster. I expect to see spaghetti strands into the city.

by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:55:18 PM CDT

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Thanks For The Responses

I appreciate getting more info on the district. While R+1 may be a feasible hold for a Democratic incumbent, I'm finding it hard to square with the polling results that show Owens at 35% and his two opponents together at 52%. I know that it's simplistic just to sum the totals of the Republican and Conservative candidates (if Scozzafava were not running some votes might go to Owens, while if Hoffman were not running it's unlikely Owens would get many more votes), that Owens is still introducing himself to the district, and that it's still a long ways to the election, so those numbers might change. But given the numbers so far it seems like it's going to take a lot of work to win a prospective two-way race--not that it can't or won't be done.

by: dsimon @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 20:45:22 PM CDT

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Owens

Owens certainly would be one of our most endsngered members for Nov 2010. But if he can survive that "sophomore" race, he'll be set. Especially after redistricting for 2012.

I wonder if Hoffman can run in the Repub primary next year for this seat?

by: homerun @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 14:49:50 PM CDT

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Awww, man

How pretty is this district going to look colored blue?

http://scoreboard.dailykos.com...

by: xcave @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 13:42:16 PM CDT

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Mmm, that's gonna look good

We got a lot of the big districts in 2008 (NM-2, CO-4, AZ-1), next ones that will "look pretty" on the map will probably be DE-AL and PA-6 and PA-15, especially if all 3 go together.

Pretty colors . . .

by: trowaman @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 15:08:16 PM CDT

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But we missed our chances at WY-AL and AK-AL!

And it's gonna be some time before MT-AL comes up. Though AK-AL might be in play in the near future.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 16:03:12 PM CDT

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MT-all...

Wasn't the GOP MT-all rep just ins some sort of scandal? And hasn't his approvals hit the tank?

by: Hamtree @ Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 16:28:25 PM CDT

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Boating accident......

I haven't followed it super-closely but I vaguely recall that one of his buddies who was with him, a state legislator I think, or maybe a local elected GOPer, has been charged with driving drunk.

I think Denny Rehberg was hurt, and I don't know that he necessarily appears culpable except for maybe being dumb enough to ride with a drunk boat driver.

I don't know that the incident hurts Rehberg's reelection chances, although his job approval was surprisingly weak in a poll I saw some time back, likely for reasons unrelated to the boating accident.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 12:43:44 PM CDT

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MT State Senate Majority Whip Greg Barkus (R)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 14:23:20 PM CDT

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