Rasmussen (10/19, likely voters, 8/17 in parens) (primary numbers):
Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (29)
Charlie Crist (R): 46 (48)
Some other: 9 (10)
Not sure: 11 (13)Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (30)
Marco Rubio (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 8 (8)
Not sure: 15 (19)
(MoE: ±3%)Charlie Crist (R): 49 (53)
Marco Rubio (R): 35 (31)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 12 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Wouldn’t you know it… minutes after hitting “post” on the new Quinnipiac poll of Florida’s Senate race, there’s a new Rasmussen too. In the primary, Rasmussen sees the same dwindling Charlie Crist advantage as Quinnipac; where Quinnipiac saw it 50-35 edge for Crist (down from 55-26), Rasmussen sees it a 49-35 race (down from 53-31).
Where they differ is how they see the general, especially the Kendrick Meek/Marco Rubio matchup. Where Quinnipiac gives Meek a 3-point edge, Rasmussen sees Rubio not only beating Meek by 15, but actually overperforming Crist (who beats Meek by 12, down from a 19-point margin before). Looks like Rasmussen’s aggressive likely voter screen in the general (versus Quinnipiac’s use of registered voters) is picking up lots of conservative diehards.
RaceTracker: FL-Sen
That’s all I need to know to discredit the GE results for this poll. Meek is mostly unknown, against him Crist is picking up lots of moderate Democrats and independents. I cannot see the unknown Rubio, running his far-right campaign, polling better; that’s saying that a generic R is doing better among moderates and conservative Democrats than popular and well known governor is. Once again Rasmussen shows how ridiculous they are. After the unprofessional way they handled the NJ-GOV poll, actually pressuring respondents voting for the third party candidate to pick between one of the others in order to get a more favorable result for the Republican, makes me far more skeptical of Rass than anything else ever has. He’s suddenly become the Good News pollster for Republicans, and while news is not good his polls tend to show across the board support for Republicans and conservative values, his voter screening this year has me suspicious and his policy questions tend to be worded in very skewed ways to support the conservative positions.
The wingers will grab it like ti is actually good news (“we are only getting our asskicked by 15%!”) which will turn this into a high profile race when it doesn’t deserve to be (yet at least). Team Blue could use yet another popular, moderate (more popular with independents than anyone else) being aggressively targeted by extremists.
Meek only 12 behind Crist, while Rubio beats Meek by 15???
What the hell is Rasmussen smoking?
In any case, I hope this bizarre poll encourages more of the conservatives to rally behind Rubio. “See, he’s an even stronger general-election candidate than Crist!” The one thing I do trust from this poll is that Rubio is proving surprisingly competitive with the governor in the closed, whacked-out GOP primary. That at least is being confirmed by other polls.
Who would have thought, we might actually have a competitive Senate race this cycle in Florida?
match spot on. The general election numbers are wildly off.
Something tells me, that you are absolutely right in that Rasmussen’s general voter model is wildly skewed to republican/conservative base compared to the Quinnipiac’s number.
I’ve “rooted” Rubio against Crist right from the start, but never seriously until now since it looked like Rubio was chasing windmills. I’m actually shocked he’s gaining ground because not only did his staying in the race against Crist look quixotic up front, but his first round of fundraising was MAJOR FAIL and he shook up his campaign staff, both signs of tanking hard that are hard to recover from.
I actually think what’s really happening is less wingnuts rising than probably the economy finally catching up to Crist. He’s one of the few Governors who seemed politically immune, but no more.
And I’ve always thought Meek has a realistic path to victory against Rubio that doesn’t exist against Crist. Meek is benefitting more than people realize from his having a clear field (Brown and others have been token opposition he could ignore) and being able to just fundraise and court base Democrats statewide. It’s exactly the quiet grunt work he should be doing right now. He’s going to have the resources to compete next spring and summer post-primary, while Rubio if he pulls off the primary upset will be financially drained in accomplishing it. The polling then will be close with lots of undecideds, and the quality of the candidates and campaigns take over. Meek just has to be ready with his positive messaging, opposition research, and attack messaging complete and ready to go. It’s a tough slog, but so far he’s quietly doing what’s needed.
should save himself the trouble and run as a Democrat. Has he done things in Florida to really aliente himself from Democrats?
“Running on principles is the more electable conservative” or something to that effect. Now we know why they think that! Rasmussen gives them polls to drool over and justify their thought process.
…what the crosstabs are for latinos (particularly of course Cubans).