Hey, I told Crist months ago

that he should exercise the Specter option.

Oh well: his mistake.  

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:32:00 PM CDT

Rasmussen has it almost identical 49 Crist 35 Rubio eom

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:38:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Crist

Crist is a Republican that doesn't offend me.  I would definitely consider voting for Crist if I lived in Florida.  Crist's biggest problem is that he thinks like a person in the mainstream, which is not acceptable in the current Republican party.

That being said, there are only a handful of Republicans currently serving that I respect.  The Republican party needs to reinvent itself unless they want to become the angry, white, Southern Conservative party.  

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:50:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, Crist's biggest problem is he sticks his finger in the wind.

The guy could have been safe for reelection, but he's apparently too lazy to actually govern.  Here he is abandoning his state in the midst of a looming budget crisis and a bad economy to further his own ambition, and he's willing to say or do anything (or avoid saying or doing anything) in order to get elected.  No principle, no sense of service-and people are starting to see through it I think and will as conditions in Florida deterriorate because of choices.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:00:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He made a calculation

that it would be easier to run for Senate than reelection. I think that was a wise conclusion. He just picked the wrong party.

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 21:29:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How the hell could he or anyone have come to that conclusion?

No one was going to run against him for reelection.  His approval ratings were sky high.  He could have easily been reelected and used the governorship as a stepping stone to a presidential race.  The wise decision would have been to stay and do his best to fix the state's problems-that would pay off more in the long run.  Crist chose what he thought would advance his career at the expense of his state, there's nothing wise about that.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 12:57:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Crist did support Obama's stimulus package

I hear you, and you make some good points.  I think that your point that Crist is abandoning the governor's office during the financial crisis is on point and well received.  Florida is in disarray, but I don't know how much we can actually blame on Crist.  The NC economy is also in bad shape, but I don't blame the governor of NC at the time nearly as much as I do the Bush Administration.

However, Crist did support Obama's stimulus package, unlike the other Republican governors (Jindal, Sanford, Perry) who balked at the idea of helping their states.  That took some guts because Crist was only one of a few who went on record voicing their support.  

Back to my original point...Crist is not a mainstream Republican.  He is not a liberal, but he is a sound moderate who probably fits better with the Democratic mainstream than the narrow-minded Republican mainstream.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 08:58:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

He may not have caused it but...

He's the governor, and doing his best to fix it is his responsibility.  Instead, he's abandoning his state and people to fufill his own ambitions.  Contrast that with Bev Perdue, who's actually making tough decisions in NC and seems willing to take the flack for it in the process...at least so far.  And really, just because Crist supported the stimulus, can we honestly say he'll support us on ANYTHING else?  Rubio's going to scare the shit out of him, even if he does end up winning.  McConnell will keep him on a tight leash.  And if he wants to abandon his state again and run for president down the line he's going to be catering to the right wing like all the rest of them.

So here's the thing we need to establish about Crist.  He's not a liberal or a conservative, and he's certainly not "a sound moderate".  He's a politician with no core who's in this for himself and will say/do whatever it takes to advance his career....as best exemplified by his beard.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 13:03:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL Paula Dockery

the only person I've ever seen with a positive approval rating at 5%.

---

by: DTOzone @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:02:02 PM CDT

Meek has been heavily reliant on Bill Clinton for his finances.

He needs to get other sources or flex his own muscle to keep him ahead of Rubio and introduce himself while Rubio and Crist defeat each other.   He needs to prepare for Rubio, because he doesn't stand much chance against Crist.  I think it'd be interesting to look at the racial breakdown and see.  It's a safe bet that Meek would get 90% of the black vote.  Would Meek edge Rubio among Hispanics?  Or could Rubio edge him here?  In both those cases what percentage of the white vote would Meek need to win?

(Mid-terms are killing me the next two weeks, very little free time.  I would love to sit and crunch numbers on this, now that Crist looks vulnerable to Rubio)

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:38:17 PM CDT

Crist needs to play the electability card

"I beat the Democrat by 20 points. Marco loses by 3."

The end.

---

by: andyroo312 @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:40:23 PM CDT

You're not thinking like a Republican...

... standing on conservative principles trumps electability 90% of the time.

Crist would be better than Rubio or Martinez as a senator, but running against Rubio is the best chance the D nominee has. I'll take my chances with a race against Rubio.

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:06:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Actually, conservatives believe that

"standing on conservative principle is the only way to be electable"

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:34:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I wish Crist didnt have to go down like this

Crist did us a favor by campaigning with Obama for the stimulus when there was no reason for him to come out and support it.  He'd be a pretty damn good Senator Id imagine, being quite moderate and willing to compromise to get something passed.

He doesn't deserve to get beat by someone who has to kiss ass to Red State to get the energy behind his campaign that he needs.

Id much rather him lose to a Democrat in the general and us get the seat by beating their best.  But alas, that's politics.  Just ask Specter!

Go Rubio  (ugh....  that hurt)

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:47:10 PM CDT

I can't support Rubio for anything

Rubio is a right-winger that has a decent chance of winning this race IF he defeats Crist in the primary.  Just like you, I think Crist would make a good Senator.  He would be an improvement over Martinez, for sure.

---

by: Tarheeman1993 @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 13:53:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yeah

I agree completely, it will be a shame to lose Crist like this. Moderate doesn't mean liberal, and he is definitely moderate. Granted, it would be insane for Democrats to take the governorship and senate seat, and that is my ultimate hope, but still, it sucks to see the system eat a good politician.  

---

by: Venslor @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:56:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I still can't see this guy as a good politician.

To me, a good politician is someone who cares about the people they work for, who's in the system to do good things for the country and for the people in it.  I just don't see that in Crist.  I look at him and I see another ambitious political hack willing to say or do whatever to get elected and then throw people under the bus when they need him.  I just can't understand any praise that man gets.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:06:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Will Crist's sexuality be an issue?

Just out of wild curiosity I wonder if it will.  Given how much of an open secret it has been down in Florida for so long, I wonder if the conservative Catholic Rubio will make some kind of veiled attacks against Crist as the primary date nears.  It seems like he's just waiting to unleash it so that Crist wouldn't have any time to respond without making it seems as though he's justifying the rumors.  Plus, Florida's GOP has a pretty heavy social conservative streak that Rubio is going to need if he hopes on winning.  Anyone else think this could happen, or have I been watching Outrage too many times?  

---

by: DFLer @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:23:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

At this point, Rubio doesn't even NEED to go there...

Why take a risky strategy like that, when what he is already doing is working well?  
   

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:55:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I have very mixed feelings about this race

On the one hand, having another moderate republican would he great sue tithe fact that we can claim bi-partisan support for bills when we have three moderate repubs voting with us, on the other hand, after Burris has his term end, there will be no African American in the senate.  Seeing Meek in there as a reliable D would also be a plus.  For right now, I guess I am rooting for rubio in the primary, because the sooner the republicans learn that their ultra conservative ways won't lead to victory, they will likely splinter or drasticly move it's party left out of fringe land.

Then again, if rubio DOES win, we will be dealing with nothing new...

Bill Hedrick for Congress

---

by: daman09 @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:15:42 PM CDT

Why do we need to be bipartisan?

If the public policy we put out is good, why does it matter if a single Republican voted for it?  Seems all this "bipartisanship" on healthcare has done nothing but screw us and get us a much weaker program than what it could have been otherwise.  My take is that the American people care more about results than whether we're playing nice, and judging from our experience this year I'd say we'll get better results without the other side chipping in.  So there's really no point in having a "moderate" Republican like Crist in there at all.  What we need is better Democrats like Meek.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:09:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A year from now I predict McCollum will be trailing Sink

---

by: jmartin4s @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:57:44 PM CDT

Yup

He is a very poor candidate. And his fundraising is terrible.

---

by: conspiracy @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 14:59:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Remember when Crist entered this race?

Several commenters back then declared him the victor. They called this prediction "realism." But predicting complicated races this far out is like eating peas with a knife. Hard to do.

Even if Crist wins the primary, isn't it possible that Rubio will have scuffed him up? In the same vein, by the end of the primary isn't it likely that Crist will be less "moderate" than he seemed as Governor?

I would guess that if Crist is ultimately elected to the Senate, he'll be less moderate than either Snowe or Collins, who actually haven't been much help to us lately. He might be on the order of Lugar, Graham, or McCain--i.e., not crazy like DeMint, Coburn, or Inhofe, but not really a frequent vote for progressive positions either.

I'm eager to learn more about Meek. To the extent that liberals have a hope in this race, he's it.

---

by: stevenaxelrod @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 15:16:59 PM CDT

Agree totally

As some other commentors have pointed out, Crist isn't so much ideologically moderate as much as he is a conciliatory type of politician - he likes to make a consensus and will do what he thinks will benefit his state.  Camapaigning for the stimulus then made sense, as he knew it was going to happen and he wanted to ensure Florida got the best cut of the legislation possible.  If he were elected to the Senate, he would occasionally team up with a Democratic senator for bipartisan legislation such as McCain or how John Warner and Chuck Hagel used to, but he would still be a conservative vote.

I met Meek once and was very impressed by his enthusiasm and devotion to progressive ideals.  My only concern is whether or not he has rhe polish and gravitas to win statewide.  He has never been challenged as Representative(he got his House seat from his mother, who held it for several terms) and still has yet to face the rigors of a truly competitive race.  I actually wish Dan Gelber had stayed in the race, if for nothing else than it would have forced Meek to introduce himself to Floridians early and cut his teeth before facing the Republican machine.

---

by: DFLer @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:33:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sounds like Ed Muskie in '72

Yeah, I know Segretti (one of Nixon's plumbers) wrote that fake letter, but these descriptions of Crist so sound like Muskie.

And it sounds like Crist is melting like Muskie did, without any plumbers to prompt him.

---

by: tietack @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 22:28:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Florida

If rubio beats Crist then this seat Is back In play for the
Democrats.And a year from the election and a dead heat In
the governor's race Is a good sign.Remember the last time
a Democrat was elected governor was back in 1994 when
lawton Chiles beat back Jeb Bush despite the Republican
sweep of the year.

Also remember back In 2008 Crist put a bunch of people back on the voter rolls and extended early voting hours.
That and the embrace of Obama with the stimulas could hurt
him.Which Is what Democrats should want.

---

by: Robbins @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 15:29:50 PM CDT

Crist still is barely in "races to watch territory"

But if he does lose, it wil be horribly, "flamingly", brutally, extraordinally personally ugly... and I'd expect Crist to endorse Meek as a result, with Meek beating Rubio.

Go Rubio....

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:27:25 PM CDT

'Barely' a race to watch ??? You have <b>GOT</b> to be kidding.

With very little money spent, and not a whole lot of time either (about three months), this race has flipped from ...

Rubio isn't raising much money and there are rumors of him quiting,...

...to Rubio cutting his deficit in half nearly a YEAR before the primary. MANY people still having no opinion of Rubio, while Crist is universally known.

Today the rumors are of CRIST quitting for the Governorship instead.

Almost NEVER does a primary race change THAT much THAT early.  

I would put Crist's chances of being the GOP nominee at no more than 45%, and that is being generous.      

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:52:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

LOL

Rubio is down by FIFTEEN points.  Crist has very HIGH popularity ratings.

It pure nonsense to think this is a top tier or even second tier race.  Just like any other race, get back to me when they are both between 40 and 45%.  Till then this is just a fun footnote to watch the wingnuts do their wingnutty stuff to benefit Team Blue.

By the way, you put Crist's chances to win below his share of the poll!  LOL, okay, you're probably joking, but seriously no sensible person would bet Rubio straight up right now.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:34:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, I think YOU are the one who is joking...

... or maybe just 'green' to politics.  

yes, I did put Crist behind his share in this poll. And that is surprising because ???????

Oh I get it, you think that races stay static for months on end.  Even races that have already shown considerable movement.

I have to admit that is usually the case, I mean, just last August Christie was crushing Corzine and he still is.  Just a couple of months before that, Deeds had an out-of-the-margin lead over McDonnell, and he still does.  

Where they are NOW is not important.  Where were they before compared to where they are now, and what is the trajectory of the race?  Who has room to grow and who has already hit their approval peak?  

I wouldn't call Crist's 48% approval rating 'high' either.  Ok, it is high next to Mark Sanford and a few others, but still.

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:55:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

58% NOT 48%

You are making a ludicrous case, based apparently on not reading the original post.

Crist has 58% approval ratings. That is extremely high in this toxic environment. Nearly 3 out of 5 Floridans approve of his job.  He doesn't have need to "grow"... he is already extremely popular.

Talking about Rubio's "trajectory" is not much to hang your hat on.  He went from a nearly completely unknown to just over 1/3 of the electorate.  A right wing hamster on the campaign trail could do as well.  Since he was an unknown it doesn't matter in the slightest bit where he was compared to now.  That's just the anti-Crist wingers extablishing his base.

You may be green to politics, but when he pulls within 10% it is "Crist favored", when it is within 5% that is "Leans Crist", when it is within 2%, it's a tossup.

But you saying Rubio is favored 55/45 is simply absurd.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:43:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

48% NOT 58%

http://southernpoliticalreport...

Someone can approve of Crist's performance as Governor (and perhaps only mildly so) but STILL PREFER Rubio for the Senate.  

Crist has the stature, money and name recognition of an incumbent. An incumbent polling below 50% is a red flag is it not?      

Crist's popularity with Democrats and Independents is TOTALLY irrelevant, since only GOP voters will be deciding.

Rubio's supports will definitely show up to vote.  

And that before we even talk about Jeb, The Club for Growth and the worsening FL economy.    

 

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 20:12:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Read the freaking poll, 58%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...
question 8... 58% and 63% among Republicans.

The link you provided shows a poll with Crist at 62%  !

... and says EVERY other poll has shown him topping 60%.

Grasping at the one outlier, when the two other polls average to 60%, and every other poll was over 60%... that is just really really grasping for straws, for whatever reason.

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 20:23:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Did you notice the downward trend ??

58% in Quinipiac have a FAVORABLE OPINION of Crist.

48% in Insider Advantage approve of his JOB as GOVERNOR.

This guy is universally known and can't crack 50% (in three polls) against an unknown opponent almost A YEAR before the election.

You can't tell me this guy is a lock for this seat or even the nomination.  

A 15% gap can close in 2 weeks, Rubio has one year.

Rubio has Jeb and by extention two Presidents in the background supporting him. He has Rove and the Club for Growth. Now he has momentum.

The economy is WORSE in FL than most states, and more rounds of budget cuts are inevitable. For the first time, FL is losing population.

We will see what happens ....
 

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 21:34:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rubio in the making (2)...

I still maintain a Rubio defeat of Crist will make him a very formidable force on the national stage and may make him the GOP's new Obama. I don't know much about him and for all of it, he could have some major skeletons that will sink him, but the guy is attractive, articulate, young and Hispanic. If he beats Crist, he'll beat Meek and the Roves and Bushes are lining up behind him as their ticket back to the White House in 2016. Regardless of his ideology, (he talks like an unreconstructed conservative), he sells it well and will have broad appeal to the growing Hispanic populace, as well as economically conservative swing voters, while not alienating the ever shrinking yet financially powerful white southern male crowd that rule the current GOP.

Dems are better off with him losing to Crist than him running against Meek or replacing a retiring Bill Nelson in 2010. Forget Pawlenty, Jindal, Palin and co., or at least the wiser heads in the GOP will permit them to lose to Obama in 2012, but Rubio and incoming Gov. Bob McDonnell of VA will be the folks to watch in 2016 and right now (though very early and who knows what will happen), I'm not seeing a lot of fresh face Dems able to successfully carry on after Obama in 2016 against these two.  

---

by: Shinigami @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 16:56:54 PM CDT

Here we go again

"If he beats Crist, he'll beat Meek"--and go on to be a finalist in 2016. Where do you folks get your self-confidence?

---

by: stevenaxelrod @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:16:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What is so hard to believe ??

If someone who was a Illinois state senator barely 5 years ago can be elected President, let alone the first black President, what is so hard to see about a handsome, articulate, hispanic Senator from a large swing state becoming the GOP nominee??  Remember, these are people that think Sarah Palin walks on water.  

If he wins, his name will DEFINITELY be added to the list of future GOP aspirants.  Of that, there is NO doubt.  

   

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:39:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A lot more state sentors DON'T get elected President in five years than do

n/m  

---

by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:52:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Man, How Soon We Forget...

Obama's election was INCREDIBLY unlikely...and incredibly hard. The fact that he pulled it off is no evidence that someone else will, too.

I mean, sure, the Repubs may nominate him at some point. And he might even be a good candidate (the original claim, which we now seem to be backing off from). But to assume all of that just because he's in a somewhat similar position as successful politician was isn't very persuasive.

Put it this way- they might make him a rising star. But look who else they've done that with. Palin? Steele? Jindal? Thune? The only one who's not a walking joke is rather anonymous.

---

by: colbycakes @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 11:16:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

He's actually got a fair point.

This thing isn't a done deal even if we do get a Meek vs Rubio fight.  If Rubio can win, and that's a possibility, he'd be one of those people the Republicans would be touting down the line.  Remember, they wanted a Republican Obama from Bobby Jindhal...they got Mr. Rogers.  An elected Rubio would seem like an answer to their prayers.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

---

by: ARDem @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:14:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not pulling a Tekzilla here...

Honestly. To think about it, let's start with the base line since this is Florida. If Rubio beats Crist, it would mean he has the GOP FL base (which is still fairly large and active), pretty much locked. So he gets most of the Crist GOP voters, mostly country clubbers and busines types who are default Republicans. Next he'll go for the center which is pretty much the 1-4 corridor votes who decide FL statewide elections. Don't forget Rubio, like Meek is from South FL, so you have a dilution of the Dem base there. Now between Rubio and Meek for I-4 corridor voters, who do you think they'll end up picking? A 43 yr old black 4 term Congressional Democrat closely tied to the not so popular incumbent party vs. 38 yr old  state pol fresh face backed by an energized out party GOP? Easy protest vote at the least not to talk of the appeal to moderates and Hispanics.

As per the teabaggers/birthers etc? If I were the GOP, I'd say screw them! Why? For the GOP, Rubio has so much upside than worrying whether some redneck government hater in Alabama will not vote for him? Will they vote for a Dem? Doubt it. Besides, LA easily elected Jindal and more clearly rejected Obama. Many may be prejudiced, but I hardly doubt they'd see Rubio, a Cubano anti-castro pol, as "one of them". Btw winning NV (which will soon have a Hispanic GOP Gov by the way), AZ, NM and CO and pulling weight in CA vs worrying about AR, AL or MS..the math is very simple.  

---

by: Shinigami @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:47:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's a lot of assumptions

and if we're going to use that logic, we could say that about any minority politician looking to move on up.  If JC Watt came back and if he won the governorship of Oklahoma, he'd be a contender in 2016!  See how this game is played?  Pick a rising minority politician, assume they beat the odds and win their respective statewide race, then assume they don't screw up once entering office, and then assume they have no skeletons in the closet, and then assume they are ready and capable of running a grueling 2-year long presidential campaign (again, no screwups!) and presto - we have a potential presidential contender.  That's a cinch, right?  Because we've seen "potential presidential material" on other GOP minority pols like Michael Steele, Lynn Swann, and Ken Blackwell when they sought statewide office.  We all know how well they turned out.

Serioulsy, the fact that the National Review and Weekly Standard drool over this guy is more of a testament to how desperate the GOP is for minority stars than it is to what he's capable of.  Obama was a CLEAR exception and not the norm.  99 times out of 100 it wouldn't have worked, but due to Clinton fatigue in the primaries and how bad things were going in late 2008 voters were willing to overlook his lack of experience and whatever racial misgivings they may have had.

And by the way, stop assuming all latino voters are the same and will vote for someone because they are latino.  That's not always a given and there are plenty of examples of minorities voting against their own.  Rubio is a) Cubano, so he has a completely different perspective and life experience from most latino voters (hence why cubanos and other latinos tend to vote very differently on issues) and b) Rubio is very anti-immigration reform and is part of the John Cornyn wing of the party that are against any form of citizenship naturalization.  That alone would kill him with latinos in the southwest.

But please, let's keep playing the game of 2016 minority Republican presidential contenders and worry ourselves into an unneccessary lather.

---

by: DFLer @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 19:15:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks for spelling out your thinking and refining it

If Rubio wins the nomination, the general election is really pretty unpredictable. It could go exactly the way you foresee--or it could go very differently. As commenters have suggested above, neither the Corzine nor the Deeds race went as planned. A Meek-Rubio race would have similar twists and turns.

Right now, polls show Meek slightly ahead. A year from now, who is to say which direction the national wave will be flowing? Who's to say the GOP will be "energized" (the party's own favorite trope for itself, whether there's any evidence for it or not). Perhaps Obama will be a hero and the Dems will be energized. Perhaps not. It's fair to call a potential Meek-Rubio race a toss-up or to say that it leans in one direction or another. But the thing isn't tied up.

As for 2016, God knows what things will be like then. Take a look of that picture of Glenn Beck on the cover of his latest book and tell me he doesn't have 2016 in mind--though he seems to be running less for President than for military dictator.

Here's the thing. Crist declares his candidacy, and some people think it's realistic to pronounce him the victor before there's been any campaign. They view the reality of unpredictability and chance as merely a fantasy. Then Rubio scores some points and edges upwards in polls. Different people now think it's realistic to pronounce him the victor and a finalist for the Republican nomination for President in 2016, even though admittedly knowing little more about him than that he's Cuban-American, young, and OK-looking. Really, for how many people are those traits the deciding factor?

Interestingly, no one has written that Meek has the race in the bag, even though this is nominally a center-left site. Why? I think that Karl Rove planted the archtype of an invincible Republican Party deep in the national unconscious. And even though the idea has already been disproven and should be discarded, we still unconsciously place our faith in the realism of the Rovean math, the Rovean prophecy, the Rovean inevitability. I think we should recognize this mythic presence as a detriment in our unconscious and get rid of it.

Right now, Crist has a chance, Rubio has a chance, and Meek has a chance. If it's Rubio, he could indeed become a national figure if he's sufficiently smart, capable, well-connected, and lucky. Or he could just be one of the crowd. We need to know him better even to be able to guess at his chances.

This is the reality right now. Predictions made with an aura of certainty are just narratives we tell ourselves to keep us calm in the face of the unknown.

---

by: stevenaxelrod @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 19:19:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rubio won't be one of the crowd if he wins ...

He will immediately be mentioned as a presidential aspiratant and will make trips to Iowa.  Count on it.

A Hispanic senator from a swing state with his oratorical gifts.  How can be NOT be on the list?  Tim Pawlenty is on the list and all he did is not lose in a blue state in a 2006 blue wave by 1 % (and only because his opponent called a reporter a whore) !!  

Now sure, there is no way to know who will make it to the convention in 2016 as the nominee, but Rubio will at least be a name you see listed as a potential candidate, the same way Jindal, Pawlenty, etc. are now for 2012.  

And if JC Watts did get elected OK Governorm so would he.    

---

by: vicupstate @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 19:41:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree that he'll probably be mentioned if he doesn't screw up

But that's a long distance from saying that he'll be the 2016 nominee, which is how this conversation began. I certainly won't "count" on Rubio rising from the pack. I'll wait and see.

I'm not sure why some here are so excited about Rubio. Does he really have oratorical gifts? I've never heard him speak. He's untested on a statewide stage, not to mention a national one.

I agree with others who have written that a right-wing, anti-immigrant Cuban American is not likely to wow Latino voters in the West and Southwest, in the same way that Alan Keyes didn't wow African American voters. J. C. Watts would not gain traction among most African American voters, because they don't agree with his policy positions. Ethnic voters, like everyone else, vote their values and interests. Sorry for saying something so obvious and probably unnecessary.

We need to be careful about how we think and talk about racial significance. Yes, white conservatives may think that a black or Latino conservative is just the thing to prove that they're not racists. But we shouldn't fall into that way of thinking ourselves. Watts and Rubio, if they were serious national candidates, would have to succeed with conservative whites, who are their base.

Honestly, it's way too early to say who is going to be in serious contention in 2016. I think this kind of narrativizing into the future is whistling in the dark.

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by: stevenaxelrod @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 22:11:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Or just a self-fulfilling prophecy

When, as the opposition, you publibly fret about another candidate being so darn "electable," it only makes that person seem more electable.  I don't see Republicans fretting about rising Democratic stars and losing sleep over potential "superstar" politicians who may run for President.  If you worry about tending to your own crop, then it won't matter what the other farmer is growing.

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by: DFLer @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 11:27:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

There is no way to predict the 2016 nominee or even make a guess..

... but to say that his name will be on the short list, and that he would have broad appeal, that is not a stretch at all in my opinion.

The reason Rubio stands out is this.  Compare Palin to Rubio.  We all saw how hyped the GOP got on Palin, so consider this....

Palin- from an 'in the bag' small state
Rubio - from large, swing state
Palin - opens her mouth and stupidity flows effortlessly
Rubio - opens his mouth and great oratory flows effortlessly.  See You Tube for evidence.
Palin - lucked up into being Governor of a state the size of a medium sized city. She quit when the going got tough.
Rubio - elected by his peers to be Speaker of the House. Served the legal term limit allowed. Elected by the 4th largest state to the US Senate.
Palin - got elected by beating an unpopular sitting Governor.
Rubio - got elected by beating a popular sitting Governor.  

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by: vicupstate @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 19:26:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Rubio reminds me of Santorum

While Santorum never did seriously make a Pres run while in office, Rubio could - if the R base can get over the color of his skin, perhaps in a Jindal-style fashion.

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by: tietack @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 19:46:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Uh, Really?

"it would mean he has the GOP FL base (which is still fairly large and active), pretty much locked."

Will it? If he wins a divisive primary 51-49, that doesn't mean the base is locked up- in fact, half of it is now a worry. If they both come off as tools and it's a lesser-of-who-cares kind of thing, the base isn't locked up. If it's a low-turnout primary, the base isn't locked up. If it all comes down to one gaffe from Crist or one good add from Rubio, the base isn't locked up.

"So he gets most of the Crist GOP voters,"

"Don't forget Rubio, like Meek is from South FL, so you have a dilution of the Dem base there."

Neither of these are necessarily true. Crist's voters might stay home for the reasons listed above, or because Crist stays pissy, or for any number of other reasons. And the South Florida voters won't vote for a guy just 'cause he's from there, too. Michael Steele was from Prince George's County, how'd that pull him along?

"who do you think they'll end up picking?"

Dunno. But I do know this- no one's going to care that one is 43 and the other 38. And the incumbent party isn't NEARLY as unpopular as the "energized out party" (and, BTW, it's easy to be energized when there's only 20% of you). And a year from now, those roles might be flopped.

"not to talk of the appeal to moderates and Hispanics"

Well, you're right not to talk about it, 'cause there's no certain appeal. Moderates won't be immediately attracted to the far right candidate. If they were, they wouldn't be moderates. And hispanics won't vote for the guy just 'cause he's Hispanic. Again, Michael Steele is instructive.

"If I were the GOP, I'd say screw them!"

I'm sure you would. I probably would, too. But the Republican Party has shown no desire to do that so far, so we obviously don't understand them. So while it might be what you would do, it might even be a good idea, it's not predictive of what WILL happen.

"Will they vote for a Dem? Doubt it."

They don't have to- if they stay home, the Republicans are beaten just as well. That's what happened in 1992 (and, at least according to their own claims, 2006 and 2008).

"Besides, LA easily elected Jindal and more clearly rejected Obama."

LA had a decimated Democratic Party (And base), and a lot of familiarity with Jindal. Not necessarily analogous to the US in 2016. BTW, the fact that they so clearly rejected Obama doesn't really bolster your point that the rednecks will be accepting...

"a Cubano anti-castro pol"

The Castro thing doesn't really have much salience outside of South Florida (and I'd question how much it has there anymore). It's certainly not a motivating factor for the Republican base in the rest of the south, or the mountain west.

"Btw winning NV (which will soon have a Hispanic GOP Gov by the way), AZ, NM and CO and pulling weight in CA vs worrying about AR, AL or MS..the math is very simple."

But none of that is assured. Being hispanic isn't all it takes to win those states. Just ask Gov. Bueprez, Gov. Chavez, or Sen. Anaya. Hell, if that was all it took to be competitive in CA, Phil Angelides wouldn't need to be so embarrassed right now.

Again, I'm not saying Rubio, if he goes on a tear, can't win EVERYTHING. Just that it takes a LOT of assumptions to say it's likely based on his current position.

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by: colbycakes @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 11:59:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Uh, cut and save...... not

All about a guy polling 35% of the primary vote.  Sheesh, Reid polls in the 40s, will he be elected God?

Oh and all those Okie/Kentucky/Arkie teabaggers are just dying to vote for an Hispanic.  Fail.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:38:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hispanic

but Id imagine him being Cuban and not Mexican would nullify most of that sentiment.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:02:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You may be right about "most" but I'd say "some"

and a small "some" at that.  These are the same people who would have voted for Clinton (or a third party) rather than Romney.  But even as little as 3% of the Republican base is enough to lose Missouri, Virgina, and Indiana, and thus the election.

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by: tommypaine @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:49:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hell, Ill say some as well now that I think about it

Thinking racist xenophobes would know the difference between a Cuban immigrant and  Mexican immigrant is giving them a lot of credit.

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by: Andrew @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 22:47:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So you don't know much about him...

But can tell that "he sells it well and will have broad appeal to the growing Hispanic populace, as well as economically conservative swing voters, while not alienating the ever shrinking yet financially powerful white southern male crowd that rule the current GOP."?

Sheesh, that's an awful lot to know about a guy who's been elected statewide a few times, much less someone who's still down 15 points in the primary. I would advise you to not assume so much since you don't know much.

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by: colbycakes @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 11:00:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow

This is incredible.  A state representative becoming competitive with a popular governor.  Republicans have lost their fricking minds.

If Rubio beats Crist, and then loses to Meek, I wonder if something will finally snap amongst the establishment GOP and they will declare war on the teabaggers and the Club for Growth that have cost them one winnable race after another.  Gilchrest, Walberg, Sali...those are small potatoes.  But a US Senate seat?  The national Republican bigwigs would go nuclear.

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by: skaje @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 17:38:25 PM CDT

Probably not just yet.

I think it will take another loss in a presidential election to retool.  Think about it-we lost big in 2002 but the party didn't start to retool until after 2004.  The Republicans are going to have to find a way to speak to minorities and diversify their party if they're going to win.  They're not going to do that with the teabagging, racist fringe up in arms over Obama, and they're sure not going to outwork Obama himself in the diversity category. My guess is they'll retool after 2012 and try to win in '16.  So sit back, make popcorn, and enjoy the wingnuttery for a few more years.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

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by: ARDem @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 18:29:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agreed on everything

Ive become EXTREMELY interested in the GOP recently.  I read Redstate more than I read Dkos which is a pretty solid indication.  Im really quite fascinated about what is going on with the GOP.  It's a train wreck currently and very well could become a great in-time example of a party rebuilding itself in a big way for a 23 year old who hasnt really seen that.

I dont really think the Dems retooled themselves, though after 2002 and 2004.

2002 we got fucked because of 9/11.  2004 we got fucked because George Bush politically capitalized on 9/11.  And then 2006 was the realization that the man has no clue what he is doing and needs to be sent a clear message.

I went to the College Democrats of America summer convention in 2006 in St Louis and Pelosi was there to speak and so was some other strategist guy who talked about what they came up with.  The guy said that the slogan that was manufactured was, we can do better.  You cant argue with it, its true, sounds good.  But everything just sounded more like, we haven't changed, we are just ready to capitalize on Bush sucking.  Which in all honesty, I think is a perfectly legit strategy and the right one as why retool and take a chance when all the work has been done for you essentially.

9/11 gave the GOP borrowed time in that everyone was pretty shook up and was ready for bold strong leadership, which they were providing, albeit in the WRONG direction.  I like to call my generation the Iraq War/Obama/Gay Rights generation.  The Iraq War made us all go, wtf?  Gay rights made us realize we do not fit into the social mode of the modern day Republican Party, and Obama gave us the outlet to express this.  I envision we'll be the strongest Democratic voting generation until we die.

Jesus Christ I am really trying not to start taking practice exams for my first test as a law school student.  Im posting like a beast tonight!  (Contracts for those who know law, consideration, prom estoppel, prom. restitution and non-prom restitution.  Not tough but my prof is a brute....)

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by: Andrew @ Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 22:57:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Redstate has been depressing recently

Once upon a time, long, long ago, redstate billed itself as the place for rational, intelligent conservative discussion.  Now, it's hardly distinguishable from freerepublic.  There was a diary there recently about how the birthers and "Obama is trying to make concentration camps" crowd are making fools of themselves and hurting the legitimate opposition.

The diarist was viciously attacked, called an Obama-enabler, a fool, naive, a fascist-sympathizer, etc.

Republicans really have lost their fricking minds.

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by: skaje @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 07:37:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You were in St. Louis?!?!?

Dude I was there too!  I wonder if we bumped in to each other and didn't know it.  I was in the Arkansas delegation (I swear I had nothing to do with Luther Lobe, that ridiculous delegate count, or that god awful speech that Josh Blevins gave during the voting!)

But anyway, we retooled to the extent that we built better machinery in the party, in large part thanks to Dean, and progressives became a louder voice than the DLC establishment.  If we hadn't had retooled, Hillary would have been our nominee over Obama I think.

Republicans have a different problem though.  If they're going to be viable, they have to reach out to women and minorities, beyond the white male Christian base.  The future of America is a pluralistic society-hell, we already are one.  Democrats figured out how to navigate that years ago.  Republicans haven't even started figuring it out.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

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by: ARDem @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 12:54:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]