Poizner and Whitman

Splitting the conservative vote though I realise Poizner has some maverick in him. So I imagine Campbell has a chance but the money angle will likely do it for Whitman.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 12:43:59 PM CDT

It's still possible for Newsom to win.

Don't get me wrong, I really don't have a dog in this hunt as I'm not a huge fan of either candidate to say the least.  But there's still a way for Newsom to win.

First and foremost, he needs to put out a vision for the state that sets him up as an alternative to Brown, framed as the past vs the future.  He hasn't done anything of the sort yet.

Second, he hasn't hit Brown where it counts for the primary.  Brown is coasting on his reputation from years back.  He's like a ghost from a distant, much better past, and he's got a reputation for being very progressive.  In reality, the guy has a lot of quirks and some right wing positions to take aim at.  He doesn't support any new taxes to fix the California budget mess, and in fact wants to cut taxes.  He also is opposed to reforming the state prison system and sided with the Glenn Becks of the world in investigating ACORN.  Add all that in with his past support for regressive taxes and throw in that clip of him jumping on Hillary Clinton in the debate with Bill many years back and Newsom could unload the political equivalent of a double-barrel shotgun.

Third, there are a lot of new voters that could be brought in to the Newsom camp.  Not just young voters, but also the growing latino population in California.  Villaraigosa's exit left a huge vacuum there, and Newsom could well take advantage of it.

Now again, I don't really like either of these guys.  Brown, I think, is a crackpot.  Newsom, to me, is a douche.  Both are way more conservative than they let on.  My only point here is there's still a path for Newsom to win.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

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by: ARDem @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 12:57:41 PM CDT

Newsom, Newsom, Newsom

I was actually dead set against Newsom for a bit back in 2008. Especially considering that I was for Prop. 8, and Newsom effectively became the poster child for Prop. 8 activists. But in an interview with MyDD, Jonathan Singer posed a question of mine to Newsom in which Newsom stated that, yes, some rank-and-file Dems might be averse to him due to his pro-gay marriage stance but that he would bring that intensity of his to other bread-and-butter issues important to Dems.

So, now, I'm actually for him. I'll be proud casting a vote for Newsom. He's young, has promise and represents the future of CA.

Brown's terms as governor basically coincided with the decline of good government in CA.

The Repubs should open their primaries to everyone. I'd cross over and vote for Campbell.

I voted for Poizer over Bustamante in 2006. I don't really have a problem with any of the Repubs if they were to become governor. They're not the crazy hyper-conservative types from the Assembly.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 13:31:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Arnold ain't really a bright spot though....

And he is a very moderate governor.

Bill Hedrick for Congress

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by: daman09 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 13:44:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Um I do have a fricking problem

I don't really have a problem with any of the Repubs if they were to become governor. They're not the crazy hyper-conservative types from the Assembly.

California is the number one state to go on offense for redistricting.  Getting this governorship is the difference between possibly having a progressive majority in the House or having to kiss the ass of rural Southern Blue Dogs.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 20:51:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Great point

I'm just torn on whom I would support for the Democratic nomination.  I'm no fan of Jerry Brown, but I think he will end up winning the nomination.  I have voted for Brown in the past (1992 US Presidential Democratic Primary--President), but my feelings for Brown have waned since then.

I only hope he's gotten smarter in his years.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 21:14:04 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's not a great point

But belaboring it won't help.

Democrats in control of redistricting will hurt our chances for picking up seats not helping this.  We did this already, in 2001.

The best hope to pick up seats is if an independant group does it.  If Dems are in control they simply will not combine Gallegy and Capps' districts, which is the most obvious way to pickup a seat.  Likewise around the state.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:32:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bullshit

Pelosi wasn't Speaker in 2001 and Obama wasn't President.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:38:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't particularly care who wins the primary

provided the winner wins the general.  This is the most important election with regard to redistricting.  I'd support for any partisan Democrat for Governor, regardless of whether they are liberal or moderate.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 20:08:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, if money talks...

Jerry Brown, Meg Whitman, and Carly Fiorina are gonna win their respective fields. I think with this specific poll, however, Whitman has a problem on her hands - no longer does she appear to be the most competitive against Brown among the GOP contenders; she needs that sort of polling in order to win the nod.

And, I've gotta say, I still don't believe Gavin Newsom is electable in a general. Despite these polls. I feel like in a Newsom/Whitman race, she wins Independents by 20%.

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 13:08:21 PM CDT

I am in the middle with the Democratic field

Some days I am leaning towards Brown, other days I am leaning towards Newsome.

I would really need to see these guys in a debate before I could make a decision

And a note about Fienstein, I would love to see her moderation out of the senate, and maybe elect a dem as good or better than Boxer.

Bill Hedrick for Congress

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by: daman09 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 13:47:15 PM CDT

On Feinstein

Getting her out of the Senate is actually the best reason I've ever heard to support Feinstein for Governor. :)

Newsom is douchey, and Brown's is kind of a crackpot. But Brown gave an interview awhile back where he said his potential gubernatorial platform was going to be [paraphrase] "I'll hold this state together with baling wire and duct tape if I have to."

Though I'm the sort of young, tech-savvy liberal who should comprise Newsom's base, I'm voting for Brown for a very pragmatic reason. Brown will be aggressive in securing his legacy and knows what needs to be done to run the state better. Newsom will have one eye on his future political prospects the whole time he's in office. Not exactly the best recipe for the bold leadership we need to fix California.  

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by: arealmlc @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 13:57:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As a non-Californian

That last point really resonates with me. We're getting way ahead of ourselves, but looking at the potential 2016 field if Obama doesn't change his VP pick, the Governor of California could be a very strong contender.

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by: safi @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 14:13:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

That's just the shame here

Neither Brown nor DiFi (thank god) have Prez or VP potential.  They are past that point in their careers.  None of the top Californian Democrats has any potential for that.  (Newsom least of all.)

Fortunately Brown will crush Newsom, so at least four years from now someone with national credibility might emerge.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 19:46:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If Newsom wins

And has a relatively successful first term, two big ifs, without a clear favorite the governor of Cali could be in a prime position.

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by: safi @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:03:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Newsom's Howard Dean moment will never play in Peoria

Never.

That's not to say that a majority of the country will not agree with him in seven years, but "what an arrogant asshole" is never going to play.  Like Dean, that one moment ended his national prospects.

(God knows I wish Newsom was better, because on paper he looks like he could be a major national leader.)

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:36:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Too early, name rec, too many undecideds...etc

This poll is not worth much, but as a former CA resident I expect the following will occur: Whitman will win the GOP nom, Jerry Brown has a ceiling but even if she runs the best race possible, she will come closer than any Fiorina but fall short of beating him by btw 5-8% points and yes, Newsom is completely unelectable in the general.

(1) Whitman wins GOP primary: basically, even the few wingnuts left in the state know only a RINO or moderate Dem with an (R) next to his/her name can win the CA GOV. An oustider with little or no voting record is better than a GOP public officer with one and Whitman can appeal to indies/women etc with her busy high-tech record.

(2) Jerry Brown still comes across as kinda kooky to some and really is unchange from his previous stint as Gov. Luckily for him, he's been elected statewide recently and most of the conservatives who hounded him in office are dead or moved to AZ, CO and TX. Nonetheless, he has a ceiling because he is not a fresh face and he's a political incumbent and Californians know thier state government needs radical branch to root change cos the recurring budget and prop-mandated form of government that has crippled the state from Duekmejian to Schwarznegger is not working.

(3) Newsom is unelectable cos he's just too too far out there and even beyond his Prop 8 bogeyman face, he's a bit too celebrity-ish for the traditional Dem voters in Soutern CA (where most of the votes are) to be take him seriously. Don't get me wrong, he could win the nomination but I just think he'd have a hard time running a hard campaign against Whitman (absent some major fumble on her part) to probably hold enough Dems and Indies to beat her in Nov.  

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by: Shinigami @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 14:00:56 PM CDT

Whitman is toast

I half expect her to drop out.  She gets absolutely zero media love in any story about her.  That never having voted problem is mentioned in every story involving her.  Whenever she does anything, there is always a little anti-her in every story.

Campbell is the candidate to fear, though Brown can handle him (unless he does something idiotic).

But like NY, this race is screaming for a wingnut to win the primary.  All three of these Republicans are in the left half of the party ideologically.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 19:50:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

NJ-Gov Poll: Christie Up 3

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

- Only 2% remain undecided.

- A 22% gender gap.

- Corzine only retains the support of 67% of those who voted for him in '05.

- Christie wins every age group except 65+.

- Christie nets 18% of Dems; Corzine takes 12% of Republicans.

- Daggett's winning nearly 20% of Hispanics.

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by: andyroo312 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 14:12:16 PM CDT

Please save offtopic stuff like this

for the digest, okay?

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by: James L. @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 20:46:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Newsom

 I met him at a fundraiser last April. He was a nice person and pretty impressive. As a Californian, I will fully support Brown or Newsom but I'm leaning towards Newsom. If Newsom can't get it together, I will probably go for Brown.
I am pretty shocked that no clear Hispanic has emerged in the primary. In the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, Hispanic turnout was at 30% without a Hispanic on the ballot. If a Hispanic could win most of the Hispanic and win about 20% of everyone else, that Hispanic should win. It would be a three way race.
 As for Newsom, the only supporters he has are the young voters. I am not sure if Newsom is winning San Francisco. Basically, he splits the Bay Area with Brown while Brown wins everywhere else except MAYBE in the University counties like Humboldt and Santa Cruz. Newsom needs to connect with baby boomer Liberals. I do not see him reaching out to organized labor so those boomer Liberals are his last hope. Basically, Newsom is doomed not just by the poll numbers but by demographics.

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com

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by: Alibguy @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 19:10:28 PM CDT

Many thought Villagarosa would get in

And the stats in those circumstances are as you suggest - and maybe even more with the name recognition he has in SoCal.

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by: tietack @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 19:48:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You met him once

and you think he's nice? OK, he seemed nice to you. But based on what we know about his personal behavior, I think he's a real asshole - not that that's relevant to his politics or qualifications; I'd judge those separately.

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 20:08:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As far as personal behavior

If Newsom is an asshole, he probably has a lot in common with Brown.  I've developed the same feelings for Brown, but at least Brown has probably matured some in his advanced age.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 21:18:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I voted for Brown in the 1992 Presidential primaries

because he promised to raise taxes on the rich. Then, when Clinton did that, Brown lost all my respect by lambasting him for supposedly soaking the "middle class." But that makes him a hypocrite, not an asshole in his personal behavior. Did he ever cheat on his wife with his best friend's wife?

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 15:03:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pan, I did the same thing

I voted for Brown in 1992, and I also thought he was a hypocrite when he lambasted Clinton for doing the exact same thing he was planning to do.

With Brown, my feeling as far as him being an asshole had to do with a documentary I saw about him 13-15 years ago.  Brown had a strong hateful streak in him.  I only hope that he's matured in his older age.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 13:20:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Any idea

why Campbell is getting so much support in these polls? I expect them to change once Poizner and Whitman start tossing bundles of money at each other but for Campbell to be a legitimate contender in the polls is quite remarkable.  

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 21:41:53 PM CDT

From what I've seen

even though he did not make any effort to distance himself from popular-as-measles Governor Arnold, unlike Whitman and Poizner, Campbell is looking more palatable to primary voters as Whitman's campaign has begun to flame out, and Poizner has gone nowhere fast, which I find surprising considering he is the only one of the three contenders that is an elected official and thus should have more name recognition than the other two.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:11:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Campbell has support because

he is a fine person whose views are mainstream California. Ignoring specific issues here and there, if Campbell were a Democrat he would win whatever he ran for.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 22:39:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i love the Republican primary

The Repubs are debating among three losers. Whitman pointlessly called California civil servants arrogant, and LA Times columnist George Skelton turned the adjective back on her in a merciless critique. He called her a demagogue to boot. And he's a centrist. The arrogance theme is underlined by the fact that Whitman has barely ever bothered to vote, being "too busy" with her family obligations--as if spending fifteen minutes every two years is just too much for someone as important as Whitman. I think that Whitman is now branded as "arrogant." And her problems only deepen from there.

Poizner has just the personality that his name would lead you to guess. And Campbell, the best of the three, has a long history of being sane, which disqualifies him for the cave-people who dominate the California Republican party. I think they'll stay home or vote American Independent or Libertarian rather than vote for the RINO Campbell. I'm surprised that Campbell is polling as well as he is. It's partly name familiarity--he's been around forever--and partly the weakness of the other two.

I think the Democratic primary will decide the election. I know many here have said that Newsom has killed himself with one thing and another (the Prop 8 ads were devastating), and I do agree that he's injured himself. But a savvy campaign and some tactical self-reinvention could change everything. He's young, handsome, and has the aura of a celebrity. We'll just have to wait for the actual campaign to know. Either Brown or Newsom would be a step up from what we have now.

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by: stevenaxelrod @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 04:56:02 AM CDT