Field Poll (2/20-3/1, registered voters):
Dianne Feinstein (D): 38
Jerry Brown (D): 16
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 16
Gavin Newsom (D): 10
John Garamendi (D): 4
Steve Westly (D): 2
Bill Lockyer (D): 1
Jack O'Connell (D): 1
Jerry Brown (D): 26
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 22
Gavin Newsom (D): 16
John Garamendi (D): 8
Steve Westly (D): 2
Bill Lockyer (D): 2
Jack O'Connell (D): 2
(MoE: ±5.5%)
Meg Whitman (R): 21
Tom Campbell (R): 18
Steve Poizner (R): 7
(MoE: ±5.8%)
Lake Research (D) (2/17-2-19, likely voters):
Jerry Brown (D): 27
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 20
Gavin Newsom (D): 14
John Garamendi (D): 8
Steve Westly (D): 3
Jack O'Connell (D): 1
(MoE: ±5.7%)
Jerry Brown (D): 43
Meg Whitman (R): 27
Jerry Brown (D): 41
Steve Poizner (R): 30
Gavin Newsom (D): 40
Meg Whitman (R): 25
Gavin Newsom (D): 38
Steve Poizner (R): 29
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Two polls are out in the 2010 California governor's race, the big enchilada of all the gubernatorial seats. One is from Field, the gold-standard of California pollsters; the other is from Democratic internal pollster Lake Research (which doesn't have a candidate in the race). Field polls both primaries but not the general; Lake polls the Dem primary and some general head-to-heads. Taken cumulatively, the most likely result seems to be that Governor Moonbeam may well ride again, in one of politics' most surprising second (or third or fourth) acts.
The Field Poll does two different runs on the Democratic primary, and finds that were Senator Dianne Feinstein to run, she'd mop up the rest of the field. While she has been occasionally linked to this race, she hasn't made any visible moves toward running. Without Feinstein in the mix, AG Jerry Brown has a bit of an edge over Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. One interesting tidbit from the Field Poll is that young voters have no idea who Jerry Brown is (he was governor in the 70s, long enough ago that he's grandfathered out of California's term limits laws, allowing him to come back for more). Only 8% of 18-to-39 year-old voters support Brown, and 30% have no opinion of him.
On the Republican side, Field gives a small lead to former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who was a big McCain booster and seems to be staking out the party's right flank. Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (who lost the 2000 Senate race to DiFi and hasn't sought office since then) does surprisingly well, considering how long he's been out of the spotlight; apparently the moderate wing of the California GOP is still alive and kicking. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is a distant third, although he may shoot up once his free-spending ways kick in, especially given that more than half the GOP voters are undecided.
Lake puts up very similar numbers in the primary as the Feinstein-free Field poll. As for the general, they run head-to-heads involving Brown and Newsom, and find the Dems in pretty good shape, winning each matchup by double digits. Undecideds are still high (in the 30% ballpark), as would be expected at this point, but a Dem pickup is looking like a real possibility, assuming the primary doesn't get too bloody. |
