Research 2000 for Daily Kos (8/9-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Jerry Brown (D): 29
Gavin Newson (D): 20
Meg Whitman (R): 24
Tom Campbell (R): 19
Steve Poizner (R): 9
Meg Whitman (R): 27
Tom Campbell (R): 21
(MoE: ±5%)
Jerry Brown (D): 42
Meg Whitman (R): 36
Jerry Brown (D): 43
Tom Campbell (R): 35
Jerry Brown (D): 43
Steve Poizner (R): 34
Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Meg Whitman (R): 37
Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Tom Campbell (R): 35
Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Steve Poizner (R): 35
(MoE: ±4%)
Carly Fiorina (R): 29
Chuck DeVore (R): 17
(MoE: ±5%)
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 52
Carly Fiorina (R): 31
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 53
Chuck DeVore (R): 29
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 takes a very thorough look at the big two races in California next year, checking out pretty much every possible permutation left. Although we've seen some rather alarming polls for Democrats in the last few weeks, Democrats seem to be holding their own in California, with ex-Gov. and current AG Jerry Brown holding an appreciable edge in the Governor's race (up 6 on the likeliest GOP opponent, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) and Sen. Barbara Boxer with 20-point leads on her competition.
San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom doesn't fare as well in head-to-heads -- Whitman edges him out by 1, while he beats the other GOPers by 1 -- and that's reflected in his favorables. He's the only one of the five gubernatorial candidates who's in negative favorability territory, at 40/42 (Brown, by comparison, is at 48/37). While the primaries have been polled extensively, the only previous poll that has looked at the general election in CA-Gov is a Lake Research poll from March that had both Brown and Newsom beating their GOP rivals by margins well outside the MoE, so it seems like some erosion has happened on the governor's side (especially with Newson). With Whitman's endless millions that she's signaled her willingness to spend, this has the potential to get closer as the race goes on.
On the flipside, R2K's numbers give a much wider spread on the Boxer/Fiorina matchup than the recent Rasmussen poll; R2K's numbers on this race are pretty close to what the Field Poll found in March.
Finally, the poll also asks about the fate of a same-sex marriage initiative that may be on the ballot in 2010. The initiative would narrowly lose, 48-47, but that's indicative of some progress, as the same sample voted 51-45 in favor of Proposition 8 (and thus against same-sex marriage) last year, so there's been some improvement just in the last half a year.
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