PA-Sen: Sestak Gains Ground After Official Launch

Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (51)

Joe Sestak (D): 34 (32)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±5%)

Those are the best nums for Joe Sestak yet from any pollster. (Quinnipiac had Specter up by 32 points in mid-July.) Perhaps there’s a bit of an announcement bounce for Sestak in effect here, but if these numbers are accurate, Arlen Specter has a lot to worry about.

Also interesting was this tidbit:

Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.

So, despite challenging Specter from the left, Sestak is gobbling up the early support of seemingly anti-public option Democrats. Go figure.

Rasmussen’s favorability numbers have shown little movement since June; Specter’s at 71-25 while Sestak’s sitting on an implausibly high 54-23. (That so many people have an opinion of Sestak is probably due to IVR methodology.) Quinnipiac painted a much different picture last month, with Specter carrying a 45-44 favorable rating to Sestak’s 23-7. UPDATE: Um, whoops. Sorry to realize this so late, but I was not making an apples-to-apples comparison between Rasmu’s Democratic favorability numbers and Quinnipiac’s favorability stats from all voters. My bad. Q’s Democratic numbers: Specter was at 73-16 and Sestak was at a good-but-still-mostly-unknown 30-3.

(H/T: P-Wire)

75 thoughts on “PA-Sen: Sestak Gains Ground After Official Launch”

  1. I was a big fan of Sestak’s until recently. It’s not even necessarily his issues, it’s his attitude. I know, most politicians running for office enjoy touting what they’ve done, but Sestak goes overboard. MSNBC cannot ask the guy a question without him rambling off some memorized talking point.

    Seriously, someone could ask him how long he’s served in the House and instead of answering, he’d spend a few minutes touting himself and then he might answer, that is, if they don’t have to cut and go to a commercial.

    It’s very annoying. I know he wants to knock off Specter, and that’s great, but he’s going becoming one of the most annoying people that they interview.

  2. running because he wants to become a senator, not because he cares about whether Arlen voters conservative or liberal. I’ve had it with Sestak and his crazy military style of how he believes in running everything. In addition, this primay is an unnecessary waste of money. I hope Sestak looses and then is done with politics forever.

  3. Arlen Specter has always been a Philadelphia and suburbs phenomenon. PA Dems are more liberal there, and that’s his base.

  4. I wonder if it is accurate to assume that those who oppose the congressional health care plan are, in fact, opponents of a public option.

    The question that Rasmussen asked didn’t specifically mention a “public option.”  The wording was quite vague:  “Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?”

    Since this is about self-identified Democratic voters, it is quite possible that some of the Democrats opposing the plan could be single payer advocates. Similarly, other voters could support the public option but oppose the plan based on other provisions, funding concerns, deals with pharma, etc.

    And the question is kind of meaningless — will if I were polled I would answer “yes” , I would be wondering which Congressional Democratic plan they are talking about. The Senate HELP Committee Plan? Max Baucus’s attempts to make a deal with Grassley et al? Kent Conrad’s health co-ops? One of the 3 House committee bills? Ron Wyden’s separate bill with Lamar Alexander and Bob Bennett? Dennis Kucinich’s single payer bill?

    Given the state of health care legislation these days, I wouldn’t assume that Democrats who answered “no” to this question are against a public option.

  5. the people opposed to the Congressional health care plan (whatever that actually is, seeing as how the Senate still hasn’t gotten their bill together) are in a “throw the bums out” mood, so they’ll vote against Specter regardless of the candidates’ actual positions.

  6.    Remember how John Edwards ran to the left in 2008, but still got most of his support only from conservative, white Democrats?  The same thing is happening here.  Specter is an urban, Jewish Republican.  Is it really so surprising that grumpy, old, conservative, white Democrats will vote for the vice admiral over a pro-choice urban Jew?  It’s identity politics again.

      This is a very good poll for Sestak obviously.  Sestak just needs to make his positions on issues known and he’ll grab more left-wing support.  Specter is in deep, deep trouble.

  7. Snarlin’ Arlen has 100% name identity and has been around forever. Everyone knows who he is and whether they like him or not. Specter is now under 50% after attacking Stestak on his military record and voting. Given Specter’s advanced age and past health problems, his lack of any core values except to save his political career and the tight governor’s race, Sestak is the better choice. It is past time to retire Arlen Specter.  

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