Rasmussen Reports (6/16, likely voters, no trendlines):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51
Joe Sestak (D): 32
Other: 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the first time Rasmussen is dipping its toe in the water here, so we don't have any kind of trendline to work with. But Specter's 19-point lead is the smallest any pollster has shown to date. (A GQR survey put Specter up 55-34). Given how far off Pennsylvania's primary is, that doesn't strike me as a terribly formidable margin, especially since Specter is so much better-known.
Rasmussen's favorability numbers are a bit surprising, though. Among Dems, Specter clocks in with a 72-26 rating, not too different from a six-week-old R2K poll. However, Sestak's 57-21 favorables seem way high. By comparison, that same R2K survey (which was also of likely voters) showed 56% having no opinion of the guy, as opposed to just 22% here. A more recent Quinnipiac poll (of RVs) showed even bigger d/ks, as did a Republican survey of LVs.
My guess is that this difference comes down to methodology. All prior polls taken of this race used live interviewers; Rasmussen uses IVR. Obviously the discrepancy is because the DOG COULD HAVE BEEN ANSWERING THE CALL. Alternately, it could just be that lower undecideds across the board, whether for favorables or head-to-heads, are simply a hallmark of the push-button nature of robopolls. You decide.
RaceTracker: PA-Sen
UPDATE: I thought this was pretty great (and hilarious) framing - Joe Sestak branded Arlen Specter a "flight risk" in a fundraising email. |
