I dont trust Quinnipaic

There polls always seem a bit off to me. If Pennsylvania got rid of Santorum, there is no way theyd ever elect Toomey.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:21:33 PM UTC

I tend to agree

But still, I don't want to go all Tekzilla/BillNolan/UpstateDem/antoni but there is real potential here for this to blow up in several very prominent faces. Just sayin'.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:26:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll do it for you

oh woe is me...oh woe is me....We can't beat Pat Toomey with either Sestak or Specter...this seat is definetly going to the Republicans.  

Of course with Toomey;s huge 20 point win, the Republicans will win the governor's seat by 40

Pike doesn't stand a chance in the 6th and its obvious that Dahlkemper, Altmire, Carney, Kanjorski,and Murtha will all lose badly.  Its just so awful that Pennsylvania is atleast 70 points more Republican than it was 5 hours ago.  

As for this poll, I think thats rather laughable.  Toomey isn't going to come close, though I have to admit that I hope these early polls showing him close will generate some decent fundraising for him and get the NRSC to spend some cash here.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

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by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:48:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Debates

If there are debates between the Democratic primary winner and extremist Toomey, I feel confident that they'll bury him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 07:00:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

ditto your remark

We should always consider whether a candidate can energize his or her base.  Toomey will definitely energize the conservative base.  I think that is a given.  However, Specter's base is a bit unknown.  The Democrats are a bit suspicious of him, he can kiss away his conservative support.  His base is probably the independent-minded voters.

If Specter wins the Democratic nomination, he will have trouble energizing his base.  I still have strong confidence that Arlen would win, but it won't be a Casey landslide.  Specter's victory margin will probably be in the single digits.

I haven't counted out Sestak yet....once he introduces himself to the PA democrats, he will have a decent chance of beating Specter.  Sestak has the ability to energize the Democratic base better than Specter.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 13:37:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pennsylvania generic partisan split

is something like 56/44.  So all the Undecideds are Democratic leaners.  And Toomey has all the Republicans supporting him.

Thing is, Arlen has pissed off just about every side lately.  I don't get his anti-union thing in particular.  He's incredibly selfserving but can't get himself to do some really easy, basically token, stuff for a bunch of Democratic constituencies.

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by: Baystater @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:51:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oversampled

They oversampled in order to get better numbers for the primaries. Nate Silver ran the numbers with the 2008 exit poll numbers and found a 46-43 lead for Specter, so the party ID that Quinn used had to be somewhere around those splits.

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by: NJBrandon @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:42:16 PM UTC

Like that is much better

I think in a side by side comparison whoever wins the primary should beat Toomey going away. But I emphasize should. This isn't the first poll to show potential trouble and we are kidding ourselves if we think either Specter or Sestak will emerge unscathed from the primary.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 00:45:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree on potentially damaging primary, but the calendar...

...helps.  It's mid-May, 5-and-one-half months before the general.  There will be plenty of time for the party to come together, for wounds to heal, and most importantly for damaging primary attack narratives to be forgotten.

The problem Specter has is that whatever Sestak uses against him can be repeated by Toomey for the general..."turncoat"..."two-faced"..."self-serving"...or so many others, take your pick.

I'm not sure the same is true of Sestak.  What will Specter hit him with?  The stuff Specter has tried so far is weak tea, and I suspect unless there's some yet-unrevealed personal scandal or political corruption out there, Specter won't find much to attack.  He can't flank Sestak from the right because that just plays into Joe's hands, and there likely aren't individual issues where Specter plays better with Dems than does Sestak.  Specter's best hope is that simply being a well-liked longtime Senator that the general electorate hasn't had a real problem with will get him over the primary hump.  But it's a tougher primary sell because Democratic primary voters are used to voting against Arlen every 6th November; we're talking about a loyal electorate, after all.  Perhaps the "new" Dems from the Philly 'burbs will bail him out...they're a must-have for him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 01:33:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

To tell the truth

My biggest fear is Sestak tearing several strips off Specter but narrowly losing the primary. Total nightmare scenario and not out of the question unfortunately.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 02:11:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What makes you think that they didn't do

the adjustment themselves? Frankly, only an incompetent pollster wouldn't.

This poll says what it says, and it's not good.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 02:43:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We need a Republican primary

so that Toomey can act crazy. Without a primary Toomey can act moderate for the whole campaign.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 04:57:11 AM UTC

Luckily

Toomey does NOT want to "act" moderate.  he's a true believer and will present his non-mainstream ideology to the world because he genuinely believes in it.

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by: tommypaine @ Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 06:31:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]