SSP Daily Digest: 7/15

CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night’s special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It’s a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I’m wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)

AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer “that Jew” when he couldn’t think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as “this new minority judge.” Don’t confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who’s the one who thought you should “get shots” before going down to southeast Arkansas.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk — who’s had some past problems with the space-time continuum — has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he’s been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can’t count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood’s political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won’t run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue’s job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let’s just say we should be glad she isn’t up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that’s the worst individual performance of anyone they’ve polled this year except for Roland Burris!

CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can’t really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle’s tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn’t been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He’s joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that’s been linked to the teabagging movement) on their “Patients First Tour” in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit ‘eject,’ he’s starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he’ll announce his campaign plans for “statewide office,” without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor’s race. Does Ohio have a statewide “dogcatcher” position?

AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

51 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/15”

  1. And maybe Justice knows Young will retire, and figures he won’t need a lot to win?  No excuse, but at least it’s a reason.  What’s his CoH?  I’m trying to see, but everything is being slow.

  2. Maybe going from Congress to the California State Senate is a promotion. California has 53 seats in the House (one for 694,000 people) and a 40 member State Senate (one for 919,000 people).

  3. If Pat McCrory runs in NC-08, I would consider the district to be a tossup.  McCrory seems to have taken a turn to the right to shore up his conservative credentials, and he should not be taken to lightly by Kissell.

    As far as Perdue goes, she’s in a no-win situation.  Her predecessor, Mike Easley, is being hammered for alleged ethical violations.  Also, the unemployment in NC is in double digits (around 11%).  She’s proposed a sales tax hike of 1% (right thing to do, but not the best political move), she’s pissed off the NC Superintendent of Education (going to court today, I believe), and she’s proposed some expense cuts that have the educators up in arms.  I held my nose when I voted for Perdue (I couldn’t vote for McCrory) because she comes off as a weak, aloof leader.  If you ever hear her talk, she seems to speak very reluctantly on all issues.

  4. AZ-01 Paul Gosar (R-Maybe now he can afford to open a campaign office in the district, as opposed to SCOTTSDALE), $44K; $31K COH

    AZ-05 Jim Ward (R-Random businessman, anti-Schweikert), $157K; $115K COH

    AZ-08 Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Clearly running for Senate in 2012), $658K; $1213K COH

    AZ-08 Jesse Kelly (R-Random Teabagger being hyped up for some bizarre reason), $55K; $38K COH

  5. Mark Schauer (D-inc.)

    Contributions – $344,456.71 (Q1 $387,570)

    Individual – $143,838.71

    PAC – $200,618.00

    Disbursements – $67,187.72 (Q1 $50,127)

    Cash on Hand – $632,590.78 (Q1 $351,225)

    For comparison, ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R) (2010 candidate as of… yesterday) had a whopping $240,784.06 cash on hand at the same point in his term, July 2007. Until the Club for Growth kicked his fundraising up for him, Walberg was pretty weak.

  6. Bobby Bright (AL-02)

    $219k raised, $358k on hand

    Parker Griffith (AL-05)

    $283k raised, $424k on hand

    Betsy Markey (CO-04)

    $240k raised, $508k on hand

    Jim Himes (CT-04)

    $518k raised, $760k on hand

    John Carney (DE-AL)

    $262k raised, $235k on hand

    Alan Grayson (FL-08)

    $169k raised, $193k on hand (owes $1m, probably to himself)

    Ron Klein (FL-22)

    $372k raised, $1.95m on hand (!)

    Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)

    $360k raised, $520k on hand

    Also to note in Florida: the Diaz-Balarts are tapped-out (they have about $100k on hand each), but Ros-Lehtinen is holding on to $469k.

    John Barrow (GA-12)

    $266k raised, $312k on hand

    Ed Case (HI-02, no wait, HI-01 this time)

    $80k raised, $120k on hand

    Walt Minnick (ID-01)

    $329k raised, $481k on hand

    Bond, Michael Bond (IL-10)

    $86k raised, $84k on hand

    Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)

    $348k raised, $522k on hand

    Charlie Melancon (LA-03, going for Senate?)

    $400k raised, $1.2m on hand

    Also, Joe Cao seems to be making a serious bid for re-election, he’s raised $365k and has $339k on hand.

    Chellie Pingree (ME-01)

    $122k raised, $109k on hand

    Frank Kratovil (MD-01)

    $296k raised, $504k on hand

    Kratovil’s opponent Andy Harris lags behind, raising only $118k with $210k on hand.

    Gary Peters (MI-09)

    $465k raised, $848k on hand – quite impressive.

    Travis Childers (MS-01)

    $233k raised, $289k on hand

    Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01)

    $120k raised, $211k on hand

    Her opponent, Frank Guinta, raised $90k with $93k on hand.

    John Adler (NJ-03)

    $518k raised, $870k on hand – also pretty impressive.

    Mike Arcuri (NY-21)

    $251k raised, $313k on hand

    Steve Driehaus (OH-01)

    $247k raised, $438k on hand

    John Boccieri (OH-16, I think?)

    $266k raised, $463k on hand

    Kurt Schrader (OR-05)

    $220k raised, $360k on hand

    Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)

    $265k raised, $457k on hand

    Tom Perriello (VA-05)

    $213k raised, $381k on hand

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