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SSP Daily Digest: 7/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 2:32 PM EDT


CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night's special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It's a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I'm wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)

AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer "that Jew" when he couldn't think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as "this new minority judge." Don't confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who's the one who thought you should "get shots" before going down to southeast Arkansas.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk -- who's had some past problems with the space-time continuum -- has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he's been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can't count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood's political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won't run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue's job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let's just say we should be glad she isn't up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that's the worst individual performance of anyone they've polled this year except for Roland Burris!

CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can't really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle's tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn't been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He's joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that's been linked to the teabagging movement) on their "Patients First Tour" in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit 'eject,' he's starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he'll announce his campaign plans for "statewide office," without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor's race. Does Ohio have a statewide "dogcatcher" position?

AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/15
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Is it correct grammatically
to call senate Republicans Captain Kirk's would be colleagues?

What the heck is going on in NC?
And maybe Justice knows Young will retire, and figures he won't need a lot to win?  No excuse, but at least it's a reason.  What's his CoH?  I'm trying to see, but everything is being slow.

Best way to make sure he retires
Would be to take in big bucks. Disappointing.

[ Parent ]
fundraising
Is there a website the shows the quarter 1 and quarter 2 and cash on hand for senate, house and guebernatorial candidates.

Yes
It's called the Swing State Project. Patience, grasshopper. :)

[ Parent ]
Where?
SSP has a database of fundraisig #'s? Where? I keep looking at the FEC site, but they havent updated yet

[ Parent ]
California State Senate vs. U. S. House
Maybe going from Congress to the California State Senate is a promotion. California has 53 seats in the House (one for 694,000 people) and a 40 member State Senate (one for 919,000 people).

Guess it depends on your focus.
But from what I hear, I cannot imagine why anyone would want to stay in the Cal. legislature.  It's so messed up.

[ Parent ]
California legislature vs. New York State Senate
Round 1...FIGHT!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
lol!


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
NC-08 and NC-Gov
If Pat McCrory runs in NC-08, I would consider the district to be a tossup.  McCrory seems to have taken a turn to the right to shore up his conservative credentials, and he should not be taken to lightly by Kissell.

As far as Perdue goes, she's in a no-win situation.  Her predecessor, Mike Easley, is being hammered for alleged ethical violations.  Also, the unemployment in NC is in double digits (around 11%).  She's proposed a sales tax hike of 1% (right thing to do, but not the best political move), she's pissed off the NC Superintendent of Education (going to court today, I believe), and she's proposed some expense cuts that have the educators up in arms.  I held my nose when I voted for Perdue (I couldn't vote for McCrory) because she comes off as a weak, aloof leader.  If you ever hear her talk, she seems to speak very reluctantly on all issues.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Ol' Bev
I saw then-Lt. Gov. Perdue speak at the NC Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in May 2008 and I that sealed my decision to vote for Richard Moore in the gubernatorial primary. She definitely comes off as aloof and incompetent. I'm just really glad she's not up for re-election until 2012.

As sad as it is to say, to govern effectively, one must have a good public relations strategy. Sadly, hers is nonexistent.  


[ Parent ]
I voted for Richard Moore too
I think Bev's main problem is her voice:  she doesn't have one.  Whenever she tries to make a point, she comes off very strained.  Sometimes she even comes off like she's searching for the truth.

I don't know if Bev will even run for re-election in 2012.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
I have no problem with a 1% sales tax, really
As long as it helps with the deficit and various programs. 1% is not that much in the grand scheme of things when youre out shopping and paying bills.  

[ Parent ]
Errr
I meant to say...I have no problem adding that 1%.  

[ Parent ]
I don't and you don't
but a lot of people have a problem with the increase of sales tax.  Our sales tax rate will be 7.75%, which is one of the highest in the nation.  This gives a lot of fodder to the Conservatives.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
A few AZ Q2 Reports coming in
AZ-01 Paul Gosar (R-Maybe now he can afford to open a campaign office in the district, as opposed to SCOTTSDALE), $44K; $31K COH
AZ-05 Jim Ward (R-Random businessman, anti-Schweikert), $157K; $115K COH
AZ-08 Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Clearly running for Senate in 2012), $658K; $1213K COH
AZ-08 Jesse Kelly (R-Random Teabagger being hyped up for some bizarre reason), $55K; $38K COH

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


Random teabaggers with political campaign megaphones
are no longer just random teabaggers.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Whoops
These were the cumulative receipts, not just Q2. I thought $658K was a bit ridonkulous for Gabby given the caliber of her opposition, but, as I said, I just figured it was a tell.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Brunner raises a ridiculus 228k
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Seriously, what's her deal?  Sorry if someone already posted this somewhere.

16, Male, MI-01


Wow, that's crappy.
Why hasn't she stepped it up yet?

[ Parent ]
I'm guessing Fisher may have wrapped up all the cash
This may not be her fault this time -- in that her failure to raise significant cash last quarter may have sealed her fate.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Roland Burris we hardly knew ye
pwned.

[ Parent ]
Is this Goode? [y/n]
Also, I still think Burris takes the cake, when going per capita for the voting population over which the campaign will take place.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Hard to say
It could open up a challenge to Perriello from someone like Del. Rob Bell of Albemarle, who could eat into Perriello's base. But whoever runs against Perriello won't have Goode's name recognition.

[ Parent ]
Mongiardo only raises 303k
This fundraising quarter has helped me pick some of my primary favorites: Conway and Fisher
http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi...

16, Male, MI-01

Fisher?
Greg Fisher isn't in this year's KY-Sen race, is he?  I haven't heard anything about him (on this site, at least).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Oh, that Fisher.
I thought he was still talking about KY-Sen.

Any word on what Greg Fisher (or Bruce Lunsford or Andrew Horne) are doing?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
No idea
Brunner had another lousy quarter in Ohio hence the similarity to the Kentucky race.

[ Parent ]
It's a shame
That the democratic establishment in Ohio has solidified this early around Fisher.  I really feel that Brunner is the better and more qualified candidate, and I'm hoping for her to pull out a victory.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Skeptical myself
A better and more qualified candidate should be able to raise more regardless of the establishment. Look at Maloney in New York for instance.

[ Parent ]
Hasn't Maloney been around and well-known for a lot longer?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Brunner is elected statewide
Portman would have a walkover at this rate.

[ Parent ]
MI-07 Fundraising
Mark Schauer (D-inc.)

Contributions - $344,456.71 (Q1 $387,570)
Individual - $143,838.71
PAC - $200,618.00

Disbursements - $67,187.72 (Q1 $50,127)

Cash on Hand - $632,590.78 (Q1 $351,225)

For comparison, ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R) (2010 candidate as of... yesterday) had a whopping $240,784.06 cash on hand at the same point in his term, July 2007. Until the Club for Growth kicked his fundraising up for him, Walberg was pretty weak.


Just picked through the reports, looking at some vulnerable Dems (and a few challengers):

Bobby Bright (AL-02)
$219k raised, $358k on hand

Parker Griffith (AL-05)
$283k raised, $424k on hand

Betsy Markey (CO-04)
$240k raised, $508k on hand

Jim Himes (CT-04)
$518k raised, $760k on hand

John Carney (DE-AL)
$262k raised, $235k on hand

Alan Grayson (FL-08)
$169k raised, $193k on hand (owes $1m, probably to himself)

Ron Klein (FL-22)
$372k raised, $1.95m on hand (!)

Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
$360k raised, $520k on hand

Also to note in Florida: the Diaz-Balarts are tapped-out (they have about $100k on hand each), but Ros-Lehtinen is holding on to $469k.

John Barrow (GA-12)
$266k raised, $312k on hand

Ed Case (HI-02, no wait, HI-01 this time)
$80k raised, $120k on hand

Walt Minnick (ID-01)
$329k raised, $481k on hand

Bond, Michael Bond (IL-10)
$86k raised, $84k on hand

Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)
$348k raised, $522k on hand

Charlie Melancon (LA-03, going for Senate?)
$400k raised, $1.2m on hand

Also, Joe Cao seems to be making a serious bid for re-election, he's raised $365k and has $339k on hand.

Chellie Pingree (ME-01)
$122k raised, $109k on hand

Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
$296k raised, $504k on hand

Kratovil's opponent Andy Harris lags behind, raising only $118k with $210k on hand.

Gary Peters (MI-09)
$465k raised, $848k on hand - quite impressive.

Travis Childers (MS-01)
$233k raised, $289k on hand

Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01)
$120k raised, $211k on hand

Her opponent, Frank Guinta, raised $90k with $93k on hand.

John Adler (NJ-03)
$518k raised, $870k on hand - also pretty impressive.

Mike Arcuri (NY-21)
$251k raised, $313k on hand

Steve Driehaus (OH-01)
$247k raised, $438k on hand

John Boccieri (OH-16, I think?)
$266k raised, $463k on hand

Kurt Schrader (OR-05)
$220k raised, $360k on hand

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
$265k raised, $457k on hand

Tom Perriello (VA-05)
$213k raised, $381k on hand


Thoughts
Maybe Melancon isn't running. Michael Bond - disappointing. Ed Case - crap which is good. Himes is safe. John Carney - decent.

[ Parent ]
I doubt Melancon would be hustling for so much cash
if he was staying in his House seat. He's pretty much safe there.

[ Parent ]
I thought that
Then $400k isn't great for the senate though maybe he started late.

[ Parent ]
He did
He didnt decide to run until the Father's Day weekend  

[ Parent ]
I guess Chellie Pingree is safe, otherwise those are some
pretty low numbers.

Hopefully Arcuri is doing better than last time.  He needs to hustle to avoid another scare.


[ Parent ]
Pingree should be ok
CSP is more of a concern.

[ Parent ]
Pingree is set for life
in her current seat.

[ Parent ]
CSP looks like a perpetual small worry
She just ain't a moneyraising machine.

[ Parent ]
But:
Still, even though CSP isn't a very good fundraiser, she can probably pull through with another squeaker of a victory, even over Guinta. I mean, NH is rapidly trending Dem with each passing day.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, definitely
I have no worry about CSP either.  Those New England seats are ours until the next big political shift, although NH-1 is the one of all of them that could flip back to Republican in a horrible year of an open-seat.  But by then, New Hampshire will be so solidly blue....  Even with NH-1 being a bit tougher, Dems still control every level of government in the state and will control the entire delegation to DC.  (Sen.Hodes is pretty forgone, Im giving Ayotte a 5% shot.)

As the South shifted quickly and solidly, so have states like NH, ME, VT, and CT.  The problem is the South obviously has a much higher proportion of the population.  And even then with the South, hot damn, North Carolina, Georgia within 5%, Virginia going seriously blue in every way (both Senators, majority of House delegation, state senate, governor).  The Northeast block has moved all the way north and is moving south now.  :)


[ Parent ]
Not gonna be so certain
You never know what way political winds can turn, and they can turn on even less than a dime.

I'd say it depends on our current legislative successes (as in getting them passed), as well as whether said legislation works, and on things like relative frequency of scandal on both sides, and who exactly said scandals strike.

Also, if the current Republican Party will die, then I think that that will happen within the next decade, but even if I assume this will happen, I won't go the next step and bet on another Era of Good Feelings.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
True to a point
Political winds will shift, but the opposition party is part of the equation.  No one has come out as a leader of the GOP since the 2008 election.  Right now, the key players are probably McConnell, Boehner, Palin, Gingrich, Limbaugh, Huckabee, and Romney, and none of them are currently much of a leader.  At one time, Gingrich was a pretty darn good leader (sans the politics, but his leadership led to the Republicans capturing the House in 1994), but his day has come and gone.  McConnell and Boehner are over their heads.  Palin, well, enough said about her.  Limbaugh is more of a source of anger...he can't unite a nation to support a cause.  Romney might spout out a lot of rhetoric, but I don't believe his own party really respects him.  Huckabee has a certain level of potential for the short term, but I think his social views are out of touch with today's society.

The Republican conservative base has the ability to be excited, but no one that has stepped up has the leadership ability to develop results for their side.

There will be a bit of a "dead cat" bounce in 2010, but it will not be much given the state of the GOP.  I say we will lose (net) 10 seats at most in 2010.  If the Obama administration is very successful, we main even gain a handful of seats (net).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Huckabee
His economic populist rhetoric sounds all good but when he actually says whats in his platform its not really something working folks want to hear. So I dont think he'll do much good in places like the Rust Belt and other 'Reagan Dem' areas. Also, Im not too sure how much his anti-bailout rhetoric will help him in non-MI struggling blue collar areas. Take western PA for instance. Those folks may be thinking, 'well, what if our industries need a bailout some day? Im sure Huckabee wont support that either'. Perhaps they feel a tad jealous and bitter of the bailout (understandable since they didnt get bailed out, too) but still they probably are very leery of Huckabee.

Also, while Huckabee is certainly no Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell when it comes to his cultural conservative rhetoric hes not much different on the issues. And, in the end, that will be all that matters to fiscally conservative/socially liberal voters in places like metro Philly. Huckabee does not come across as your typical Religious Right politician (he plays bass in a secular rock band for cryin out loud) but he is still one regardless. That wont play today.  


[ Parent ]

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