Thank you, CfG

If it wasn't for the Club for Growth, there would most likely be no such thing as Congressman Schauer, as Joe Schwartz would still have his job.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 16:46:38 PM UTC

Yeah...

When I saw that this morning, my reaction was that this is just going to be a major headache more than anything else.

Mark Schauer will be incredibly strong going into 2010. He was already a strong candidate and an amazing fundraiser, and now he's going to have all the advantages of incumbency and a solid Democratic majority. The big money isn't going to contribute to Walberg just to see him take his place in the extreme wing of a minority party. And Schauer has been playing it smart so far, making inroads throughout the district (including in Lenawee County, home to myself and Walberg).

Also, I don't see Walberg having a clear nomination path. There are plenty of genuinely conservative state reps and ex-state reps who can run on the "I'm conservative but I'm not so crazy that I'll lose a lean-R district" platform. I don't know of anyone running yet, but there has to be someone that imagines himself as the guy who will unite the Walberg and Schwarz factions.

But if Walberg gets the CfG endorsement (not a given-- they endorsed Brad Smith in the 2004 GOP primary over Walberg), then he's got enough money to make this a single-digit race for at least most of the summer of 2010. He's got the name recognition and he's got a passionate enough activist base that he can compete. Even if he doesn't win, he's going to cost us a lot of time, energy, and money.

Even so, without a major implosion for Obama or the U.S. economy (or a Schauer scandal, etc.), I think Schauer is still in a good position. We'll have to see how his second quarter was, but his first quarter fundraising was pretty good for someone who hadn't drawn an opponent yet.

I did go and re-register walbergwatch.com this morning. Walberg Watch 2010 won't be quite the same (I just don't have the time or the energy for a regularly updated blog), but I will try to have some of Walberg's greatest hits easily available. ("Iraq is as safe as Detroit," "Let's drill for oil under the Great Lakes," "Global warming isn't real because the president of the Czech Republic once flew somewhere hot, and look, he's fine!" etc.)

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by: Fitzy @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 16:50:19 PM UTC

Also

Walberg is going to have competition for the "OMFG, this guy's a lunatic!" award in MI-07. There's some guy who's planning a run as an independent, because "the national  Republicans have deviated from their conservative principles."

http://www.lenconnect.com/news...

http://www.aughneyforcongress....

If he makes it on the ballot, he should be good for a few laughs and about 1.5 percent of the vote.

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by: Fitzy @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 16:54:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the most conservative issues about Wahlberg

were those I received talking to local bloggers who described as "the equivalent of the Christian Taliban" in the extremism of his conservative. Quite frankly it speaks volume for the largeness of the conservative base of this district that he did so well last time. Battle Creek is the center of this district and it really isn't that Democratic even if it Schauers base. That's why I redrew Kalamazoo into and part of Lansing while removing hardcore conservative areas like Branch and Lenawee, which would unfortunately put you stuck in an overwhelmingly Republican Mike Rogers Central MI district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 17:05:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Christie by 12

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129... new Q poll has Christie up by 12, Obama NJ Approval @ 60-34

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 17:19:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

kind of irrelvant to what I was saying

I'm not really concerned about NJ, as far as my feelings, I think the state party machine is finally going to get sent a message, but I'm not worried because Christie will have to work with a strong D legislature that Corzine hasn't proven humble enough to accomplish significant improvements with himself.

But winning NJ would signify nothing, it would not be a big mo swing, it would not signify a change in the state's political leanings, and it would be a singular kind of scenario; Christie would not have beaten Richard Codey.

The only race of true importnace, of a sort of bellweather, is Virginia, which is crucial and I'm much more confident on that regard.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 17:30:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MI-7

I don't know a whole lot about Walberg, other than that he's a prodigious fundraiser.  He'll have the money, so hopefully the DCCC won't have to go overboard to defend this seat.  Regardless, this is going to be a major battleground of the 2010 House elections, along with the aforementioned OH-1.  Even though this district is R+2, we have Democrats holding much more conservative districts throughout the region now, like Zach Space in OH-18 and Brad Ellsworth in IN-8, so I don't think the partisan lean is a big deal.  

I have a question for you Michiganders.  Is Gary Peters really in any serious danger of not being re-elected in MI-9?  He won by 10% last go around and the district has a democratic partisan lean.  I've heard that race thrown around in the same breath as OH-1 and OH-15, which doesn't seem right to me.  

In other news, Charlie Cook just moved MI-9 from lean D to likely D.  He also moved OH-18 from likely D to lean D.  Wonder why he thinks Zach Space is suddenly vulnerable, the guy got 60% of the vote last time.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 18:17:55 PM UTC

Not a Michigander

But I can't imagine Peters losing. As you say he beat the multi-term incumbent Knollenberg by almost double digits in a Dem leaning district. Schauer is much more vulnerable having just edged Walberg in a GOP leaning district.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 18:28:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What Walberg Should've Said

"I cannot sit idly by while I am derived one more day of making an ass of myself in our nations' capital."

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 18:30:03 PM UTC

What about Sali, Harris, and Stivers?

I remember hearing about them getting in as well.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 20:47:44 PM UTC

Harris

By Harris, I think you mean Maryland State Senator Andy Harris who lost to Frank Kratovil in November.  Harris doesn't count as a former Congressman who lost in 2008 because he was never a Congressman.  He won the primary against Wayne Gilchrest who was the district's Congressman before Kratovil.  

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by: mdouglas @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 20:58:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, I was counting people who lost in 2008

If you're asking for former Representatives, then Steve Stivers doesn't count either.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 21:06:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]