All moves make sense

A few other races that I'd recommend a ratings change:

CT-04 - Leans Rep to Tossup - This race has been a tossup for a long time IMO.  Himes is keeping pace in fundraising and seems to be the best candidate we've had run against Shays to date.

MI-07 - Leans Rep to Tossup - Walberg is probably the most endangered republican incumbent of the cycle and has been outraised by a good clip.  No way this one is leans Rep.

NY-29 - Leans Rep to Tossup - Kuhl seems to be barely even campaigning and has been badly outraised this cycle.  Another race that is easily a tossup.

CO-04 - Leans Rep to Tossup - The general concensus seems to be that this is Musgrave's toughest hallenge to date, and considering how close her prior races have been it's hard not put have this one as a tossup.

AL-02 - Leans Rep to Tossup - I know, the district is very heavily republican.  But Bright's poll has him up big and even Love's poll has the race a dead heat.  Bright is the perfect kind of Dem to run here and the republicans just finished an ugly primary.  I'd say this one should be a tossup.

WY-AL - Likely Rep to Leans Rep - Trauner is a great candidate lost by a razor thin margin in 2006.  He has a big CoH advantage over both republicans who are still fighting for the nomination.  This race is easily leans rep right now, and I think it is likely to be a tossup by election day.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sun Aug 10, 2008 at 23:26:05 PM UTC

I hope you're right...

Especially on CT-04, MI-07, and NY-29. These areas aren't heavily Republican to start with, and already each of the incumbents is having problems getting past us. And especialy in CT-04, this district otherwise leans Democratic other than Shays saves his own behind by pretending to be moderate. Hopefully, Himes can keep up his stellar fundraising and expose Shays as the Bush-Cheney clone he really is.  

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 00:08:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree that WY-AL should be upgraded to Leans Republican

Trauner barely lost in 2006 and he should be just as competitive this time around, especially given his COH advantage.  

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:03:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just as competitive as 2006?

It's possible he COULD be, but we don't know yet (esp. with the undecided primary, as Trauner-Gordon has never been polled), but there's one big, big minus here: Cubin is off the ballot.

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by: James L. @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:22:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I guess my thinking was that a 6 term incumbent

who was extremely controversial vs. an open-seat with a less controversial candidate would be close to a wash.

I think the power of incumbency is that strong.

But upon further reflection if you were to argue that the power of Cubin's idiocy is more than enough to wash over even the greatest powers of incumbency I'd have a hard time refuting that.

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:08:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wyoming is still an ungodly Republican state at R+19

It's hard to not see the Republican has being favored even with a strong Democrat.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:20:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Alaska is R+14

And Democrats are competitive there. And it's worth pointing out that the state is also competitive at the presidential level, so it's not just scandal-ridden incumbents that are providing the opportunity.

Big political shifts can, and do, happen in various states.

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by: NR @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:31:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Different dynamics are at work in Alaska

When you have two high-profile Republicans in the state under indictment it tends to change the equation quite a bit. Plus there is evidence to show that Alaska could getting more blue on the presidential level, the only poll taken from Wyoming showed McCain with a 13 point lead, while Alaska has a polling average of McCain being ahead by only 6.8 points. There's a world of difference between Wyoming and Alaska this time around.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 19:48:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, Cubin was very weak

But the republicans had their top-tier candidates pass.  Lummis and the other person running on their side are not much stronger than Cubin if at all.  Also, the people running for the GOP nomination are blowing most of their cash while Trauner is stockpiling cash.  Add in some major DCCC spending for Trauner and it's easily lean rep and very close to a tossup.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:28:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Cubin Effect

There are pluses and minuses to Cubin's retirement. I think Trauner would have preferred a rematch against Cubin because she was one of those reps who had made herself unpopular in her own party. On the other hand, the Republican party can't use the seniority argument against him anymore.

There are other conflicting factors at work. A presidential year increases turnout, which would be a negative in WY. But Trauner has already has far greater name recognition from his last run, so that's a positive. He's also doing very well with fundraising, and this race isn't under the radar for the DCCC like it was last time around.

I'd say it's hard to say whether Trauner's prospects are better this cycle. But I do hope he wins. I got to talk with him at length last winter, and he's a terrific candidate.

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by: dsimon @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:29:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Trauner is awesome

He's the congressional candidate that really inspired me to get involved with these downballot races.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 19:03:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Woo-hoo!

http://www.actblue.com/page/c4o
http://www.actblue.com/page/c4...

I guess I did these just in the nick of time! I'm especially happy about Baker in MO-09, as I just made her one of our Rising Stars. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

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by: atdleft @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 00:01:55 AM UTC

Great list of rising stars!

I'm happy to see Judy Baker (MO-09) gaining momentum in the netroots!

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 01:11:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm skeptical about the competitiveness of MO-09

The Republicans nominated the non-crazy Club for Growther, and it's a solidly Republican district. It takes more than a big check from the DCCC to win a race like this.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 00:08:51 AM UTC

Luetkemeyer is a stronger candidate than Onder but

I think leans Republican is about right.

Luetkemeyer is actually nearly as much of a wingnut as Onder but he is a stronger candidate because people perceive him as less of a right-winger even though he isn't. In that sense he is similar to Kenny Hulshof (someone with a very right-wing record but who people falsely believe to be a moderate).

It definitely takes more than a big check from the DCCC to win a race like this, but Baker has been exceeding fundraising the whole time and on Tuesday exceeded vote expectations.

The DCCC is risk averse and I don't think they initially had any plans to get involved here but the quality of the Democratic candidates has surprised them. Both Baker and Gaw impressed the DCCC and for good reason. And while Luetkemeyer was probably the best of the Republican bunch..they as a group have not impressed.

Luetkemeyer has already thrown 465K or so of his own money into the race and it is unlikely that he can continue to self-fund at that rate. Baker raised about three times what Luetkemeyer did from individual donors and most of that was from in the 9th District. Now that the race is on the national radar she'll probably be able to raise money the way Kay Barnes is in the 6th District.

One plus side of Onder losing is that Baker will fare much better in the Republican St. Louis suburbs against Luetkemeyer than she would have against Onder (who is from Lake St. Louis). Of course the flip side is that Luetkemeyer probably plays better in rural areas than Onder.

Baker has quite a bit of appeal to Independents and Republicans because of her personal demeanor and her biography. I am surprised how many Republicans I know who are certain they are voting for her over Luetkemeyer in November (granted I live in her county so that doesn't necessarily mean Republicans elsewhere feel the same..but my county is 1/4 of the District's population and many Independents and Republicans here personally like her and will vote for her just as many Democrats here always voted for Hulshof).

I think there is good reason to think this race is competitive even though it is a tough court for Democrats to win on.  

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 00:48:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

what percentage of MO-9 is St Louis suburb

and how much is rural?  i worry (witn no real info) that we might have the NY13 problem we used to have where our base and our candidate is from brooklyn (or the st louis suburb) while 3/4s of the district are republican and regionally different (staten island/rural missouri).  

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by: st paul sage @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 14:59:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

4 counties make up 50% of the District.

On the West end of the District Boone County which has the city of Columbia accounts for 25% of the 9th District's voters.

On the east end of the district the counties of Franklin, Warren and part of St. Charles represent the suburban St. Louis part of the district and account for another 25% of the District. These three St. Louis suburbs in the 9th District actually lean Republican (Baker is from Columbia on the other end of the District rather than the St. Louis suburbs) but are more favorable to Baker vs. Luetkemeyer than Baker vs. Onder.

The remaining 50% of the District is rural.

In her primary Baker went up against a rural candidate who was a former Speaker of the Missouri House (Steve Gaw) and she won 16 of 25 counties, with Gaw winning 7 counties and another candidate (Lyndon Bode) winning 2 counties. Baker won 12 of the District's 21 rural counties including Steve Gaw's county of residence which she won 48% to 32%.

Pundits think it will be an uphill climb for her to win in rural areas but that is what they all said about the primaries and she made that climb. Listening to the pundits, the expectation was that Gaw would win most of the counties and Baker would have to squeak out a win by winning Boone County by a large margin. Baker won the majority of the rural counties and thus won by a much larger margin than expected.

Luetkemeyer comes from the Southwest end of the District and Baker should do well in some of the larger rural counties in the Northeast that went for McCaskill in 2006.  

This is a District that leans Republican and it is true that the Democratic base area (Columbia/Boone County) is only 25% of the District, but Democrats have some good rural counties that went for McCaskill in 2006. It is a bit more complicated than a 25/75 split. It is actually a 25/25/50 split and there is a lot of variation in the rural counties..some are very Republican, others are swing, others actually lean Democratic.  

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 16:34:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good call on MO-09. Leans Republican is where

both MO-06 and MO-09 should be.

Both will be tough battles but Barnes and Baker are strong candidates in places where Republicans haven't had to face a strong candidate very often.

I think some people thought I was crazy touting Judy Baker as a stronger candidate than a former Speaker of the House (Steve Gaw) and a former Senate Minority Leader (Ken Jacob) but the fact that she won 16 out of 25 counties in the primary including the former Speaker of the House's home county 48% to 32% and the former Senate Minority Leader's home county (also her home county) 65% to 19% should give some sense of her ability to win tough campaigns.

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by: Wayne in Missouri @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 00:28:25 AM UTC

IL-08 Melissa Bean

Time to take this race off the board. Republican nominee  Steve Greenberg has not raised sufficient funds to take down Melissa who is settling into a long term career in the House.  Just because this district has been close recently is not really a good reason to presume a close race in 08.  Melissa will win in a walk in 08, barely noticing Greenberg before she steps on him. Squish.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

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by: walja @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 02:51:49 AM UTC

Splitting hairs.

There's not a ton of difference between a Safe D and Likely D rating. I really don't expect anyone in the Likely D column to lose.

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by: James L. @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:40:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting...

because he was one of the more raved about GOP candidates this cycle.  And beware, with no more Millionaire's Amendment, Greenberg can still throw a huge chunk of his money down in Q3 to make up the difference.

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by: BruinKid @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 08:16:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I honestly think Carmouche is going to win the open seat

and Cazayoux is going to lose his so it will be a wash with the make-up of the LA delegation.

I think it honestly might be time to move NH-01 into the Toss Up. I live in this district and have a very bad feeling about it. Jeb Bradley is extremely well funded and has led in the last poll or two if I'm not mistaken. Manchester is the largest city in the district and is also heavily conservative and podunk. It pains me to say it but I think she has a 40% chance at best of keeping her seat.

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 03:39:07 AM UTC

Cazayoux will win LA-06

The Cazayoux campaign is ready to fight ... it's going to be a knife-fight ... but Cassidy's got some chinks in his base.  

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by: Ryan @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 04:15:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chinks in his base?

How so? Can you provide some more details?

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 14:10:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also, TX-22 shouldn't be listed as "tossup"

Lampson is toast; there's no sugar-coating it.

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by: NR @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:32:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't rule Lampson out quite yet

the Bush effect is gone from the state of Texas, TX-22 has received tremendous amount of hispanic/black/asian growth since the 2000 census, Lampson is now the incumbent, Olson's political experience consists of being a chief of staff to an unpopular senator (Cornyn), while Democrats in Harris County are doing a massive push to retake county offices, while Democrats in Fort Bend are mobilizing similarly with Richard Morrison (this is in addition to Galveston County being a Democratic Stronghold in this district). No doubt that this district will be extremely tough to hold, and is our biggest vulnerability currently. But it's wayyy too premature to write him off.

In LA-06, i'd also say Cazayoux is strongly favored, while LA-07 we have no chance in hell. Why? Louisiana incumbents haven't lost since reconstruction. Michael Jackson or no Michael Jackson, incumbency should push Cazayoux (and Bustany) across the finish line.

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by: KainIIIC @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 18:03:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TX-22 Resident Here

I thought he was as well, but I've been paying closer attention lately. Nick has been visible. A bit late, but he's out like he should be now. DCCC is on the air (saw their ad attacking Olson this morning while watching Olympics) and Olson is broke.

The guy running Nick's camp is smart. He's got offices open in both Fort Bend and Harris, Olson just has Fort Bend, and seems to be thinking the margins there will be enough. That's a lie. The conservative margins usually come from Harris which is just going to collapse this year. THe coordinated campaign is doing wonders, Obama's staff is registering new voters and the Harris part of the district intersects with the Competitive SD-11 and Competitive HD 144 and 129 (Disclaimer, I work for the HD 129 candidate).

My criticism. Needs an office in Galveston. Seems to be relying that voters will just show up there.

Toss up is where this race belongs due to Olson's lack of funds and how Lampson will perform better than expected in Harris this year.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 19:32:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why is GA-12 on the board?

I know it was close in 2006, but this year the GOP has a joke candidate who has raised almost no money at all.  This race has no business even being on a watch list since Barrow won his primary easily.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 15:43:57 PM UTC

Thank you again for listing PA-05...

This is a rural district in Central PA.  We are trending blue and with the massive amounts of Democratic voter registrations, this race will be competitive.

I urge everyone to take a look at the Democratic candidate from this district, Mark B. McCracken.  He is a life-long resident of the district and has served in elected office for over 10 years.  He is now in his second term as a County Commissioner and has a strong reputation for getting things done.

You can visit his site at http://www.mccrackenforcongres...

Thank you.

---------------------------------------------------------
Turn PA-05 BLUE!

Website:McCracken for Congress

Blog:PA's Blue Fifth

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by: vmo1701 @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:08:36 PM UTC

Interesting Contrast to SSP's ratings

Beyond the Polls has an interesting, contrasting look at these House races.  Apparently, these guys think the Democrats are weaker than SSP does...

http://www.beyondthepolls.net/...

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by: Steinbach @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 17:56:32 PM UTC

Their House picks don't make sense

Even republican talking heads aren't so deluded to think that Dems will only pickup a net 5 house seats this year.  Even conservative estimates at this point are a pickup of 10-15 seats.  Mosr likely it's going to be 20-30 seats, maybe more.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 18:31:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wish I shared your optimism!

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by: James L. @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 19:13:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would have shifted

CT-04 to toss up. CQpolitics has done it already and they're are normally too conservative and cautious on their estimates if anything.

In addition, it's pretty clear that Sydney Hayes is the Randy Graf of this cycle's competitive Arizona district, and politically, it's views are similar. Whether Howard Shanker or Ann Kirkpatrick win the primary, (though many on the ground have said he is running a far better campaign despite spending and raising much less money and how he would be the candidate who would get native Americans to turnout in the highest numbers for a Democrat), you'd have to rank her the underdog. Especially with her poor funding and really extreme views. Her gaffes have also not helped her. I would definitely suggest goiing back and changing to leans Dem, as Cqpolitics has already done.

MI-07 is definitely not leaning Republican right now. Wahlburg is a controversial representative and a lousy campaigner with a history of gaffes and controversy. Schauer already represents a quarter of the district in the State Senate, including the critical Battle Creek area, he has a high profile, and has been outpacing Wahlburg in the fundraising department. This is a moderate district, and, it's former Republican representative has still not endorsed Wahlburg. This is kind of like a MD-01 situation, except MI-07 is nine points to left of MD-01, at least.

And, FL-13, with Buchannon just getting hit by an avalanche of scandals when voters are up to their ears in scandal, I have to say move to leans R. He is really getting beat up over it. Jennings is a good campaigner and fundraiser who ran a close race last time and just barely lost. On top of everything else, this Sarasota County, the main part of this district, and located entirely in it, is trending Democratic and the non-Cuban hispanic population is growing rapidly there, and Democratic registration is much outpacing Republican.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Aug 11, 2008 at 23:47:08 PM UTC

FL-13

When we get some polling data on FL-13 we will see if Buchanan's problems have translated to the Florida voters.  FL-13 may go our way this election.

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by: IvanE @ Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 01:04:49 AM UTC

It'll be among the most expensive races

Just as it was last cycle.  I just hope the DCCC doesn't throw too much at this race.  Our return on investment isn't all that great in that district considering how much money Buchanan has.  It's definately winnable, but there are several other races in FL that already look better for us than the 13th.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 01:14:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mitakides, Ackerson

Of these prognostications, I am most curious about two of the "Races to Watch."  

To your way of thinking, what do Jane Mitakides in Ohio 3 and Nels Ackerson in Indiana 4 have going for them?  

It looks like they have each had at least some success putting a few dollars together and like their Republican opponents have not raised warchests that are all that impressive.  

Is there other information?  

Any of the conventional wisdom folks (Rothenberg, Cook, etc.) taken any notice of them?  

Is labor or Emily's list interested in either?    

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by: wayoutonthesteppe @ Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 02:00:34 AM UTC