PA-13, Allyson Schwartz and opponent Kats?

Just wondering.  Assume Allyson is safe, but she raises funds aggressively (and I understand is generous towards other campaigns that need help).  Looks like Joe Sestak PA-07 and Patrick Murphy PA-08 are sitting on probably adequate COH totals.  The Ds who need help in PA appears to be incumbent Carney and challengers Bennett and Roggio, maybe the sleeper race in PA-03.

---

by: pasuburbdem1 @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:20:25 AM UTC

I think she's going to try to raise her

profile in the Philly area by a big ad buy. I think she wants to suceede Rendell in 2010.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:57:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think

she wants to succeed Specter...

33, living in Germany  

---

by: micha.1976 @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 11:00:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Specters

not retiring in 2010 though.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 14:47:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

have Specter be Obama's running mate?

lol?  artificially removes Specter, I guess.  Of course, I totally expect this idea to get shot down quickly, based on the fact that I know like nothing about his political views (other than that he is famously part of the abortion-issue-reversed situation with PA).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 16:28:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't be so sure

Just because he says he is running doesn't mean he actually will in 2 years.  The guy isn't in the greatest health ya know.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 01:20:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you have a strong Democrat ..

Specter is toast one way or another

---

by: Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:40:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking good

I did a post on several of the key Florida races and fundraising numbers at FlaPolitics.

I'm definitely very happy with the figures for Kosmas, Garcia, and Martinez. Kosmas is ahead of Feeney on CoH, Garcia more than doubled Mario's take for the quarter, and Martinez almost did the same. Both Garcia and Martinez are nearing cash parity with the Diaz-Balarts.

Jennings and two of the three potential 8th district candidates have indicated they would self-fund what is necessary, so those districts should also be very competitive. The fifteen district is a real disappointment, possibly the biggest for Democrats this year. I really thought we could have won that race, but it looks like our candidates are not going to be able to compete.

Across the rest of the board it looks good. Basically it seems like we've already locked up at least four races in New York and New Jersey, a number which is likely to go up in both those states. Most of our challengers are putting up respectable numbers. I especially like what's going in Nevada and New Mexico, as well as Virginia. If everything goes our way in these states, there will be a second wave.

---

by: Progressive America @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:23:05 AM UTC

Diaz-Balart Victory fund

I guess my numbers don't include the DB Joint Victory fund, which brought in a lot of additional money, probably from the Bush fundraiser, which was then disbursed to their campaigns. Despite even that, Joe and Raul raised more.

---

by: Progressive America @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:55:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Most Impressed with:

TX-07 Skelly, FL-21 Martinez, FL-25 Garcia, MD-01 Kratovil, LA-04 Carmouche, etc.  A lot of Dems had great quarters, and I can't wait to update my ratings based on the new numbers.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:34:03 AM UTC

NJ-03 and NJ-07 belong on that list. + Maffei.

Props on getting the chart up so fast.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:01:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fabulous job, James

1. By my count, nine incumbents trail their challenger in CashOn Hand.  By far the most lopsided deficit was Joe Culberson who trailed challenger Michael Skelly by an even $500 K (550 to 1050) followed by Steve Scalise in LA-1 (down 343 K @ 211 to 554 for Jim Harlan) and Dave Reichert in WA-8 (down $336 K to Darcy Burner at 916 to 1248).  Others in "deep doo doo" as George H.W. Bush said are Tom Feeney and Bill Sali (he was trailing last quarter and now his computer is broken),  Marginally down: David Scott, Bill Foster, Mark Souder, Randy Kuhl.

2. Don Young spent more on legal fees ($130 K) than on his campaign ($121 K).  He did cut back his spending and so might be able to stagger across the finish line as the net bleed slowed to $143 K this quarter.

3. 102 campaigns have raised at least one million dollars (CTD column) with 69 being incumbents and 33 eiither challengers or candidates running for open seats. With well over $2.5 million, Deborah "The Defrauder" Honeycutt is aixth on the list.  Mark Kirk, with over $3.7 million raised tops the list closely followed by Kirsten Gillibrand at over $3.6 million.

4. Only three of the Democratic challengers who won Republican seats in 2006 spent under $1 million and DCCC spending nearly doubled Nancy Boyda's cpmbined totals to $1.5 million.  Two successful challengers were well under: David Loesback and Carol Shea-Porter.  Loesback was competitive with Jim Leach but Shea-Porter was out spent more than 3-1 ny Jeb Bradley.  She's already raised three times as much as in 2006 and has a large lead over Bradley.  Honest, this one looks really good if you factor in her ability to stretch a campaign dollar.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 10:05:12 AM UTC

a few I don;t see

Wondering about

Bill Gillespie   Georgia 1  
Tim Prince  California 41
Heather Ryan  Kentucky 1
Bryan mcCanless   SC 4
Sam Rasoul   Virginia 6
Jeff Morris    Cali 2

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

---

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 12:35:40 PM UTC

WV-02 another solid quarter

Dem. challenger Anne Barth had her second quarter in a row (she just jumped into the campaign mid-Q1), of coming oh-so-close to the fund-raising totals of Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito.

Capito is facing a much stronger challenge (and a much stronger challenger) this cycle than last. In 2006, the primary was later than this year's mid-May. Even worse, the Dem. challenger in 2006 (Mike Callaghan) came out of the primary with no funds remaining at all. Barth has a strong base, more time to raise additional funds, and outside help. This bodes quite well for Barth to have enough money to be on the air (radio, cable, TV) in the all important final weeks for the campaign--something sorely lacking with Callaghan back in 2006.

This is a winnable seat for the Democrats. Anne can do it.

---

by: WVaBlue @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 13:05:48 PM UTC

gotta win it

This is a seat we have to win either this time or in 2010, we can't let her run for Senate.  What's kind of the consensus on her running for Senate, could she win?

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 16:37:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

probably not

depends on who ran. The top two contenders, Nick Rahall and Joe Manchin would both be in their mid-sixties in 2012. Rahall is a little younger, and perhaps a little more acceptable as Manchin is really conservative.  John Unger might be a good candidate for Governor in the futre, and later maybe Rockefeller's open seat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:19:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MO-09 Onder the Repub frontrunner only 90K?!

Judy Baker is sure to extend her sizeable funds raised lead over him (Onder did give himself a 250K loan last quarter in addition to funds raised from donors). Onder may also have to fight off a challenge from Luetkemeyer in the Republican primary as I expect Luetkemeyer will have exceeded that 90K number.

For a doctor and a state legislator from the wealthy fundraising base of the St. Louis suburbs, Onder's 90K haul is surprisingly low.

DCCC plans to drop 941K into this race after the primaries.

Judy Baker has been running a great campaign and this seat should be upgraded in terms of its likelihood of flipping.

There is a reason DCCC is dropping money into MO-09 instead of MO-06.

Check out Judy Baker's website and ads here:

http://judybakerforcongress.com/

Or donate to her at my ActBlue page. If you donate to her on my page from reading this here on SSP I'll match the first $200.

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa...

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 13:37:41 PM UTC

MO-06

is significantly more democratic than MO-09, and Kay Barnes is an extroadinarily strong candidate, as the popular former Mayor of Kansas city, and she's raised over a million dollars, outraising Sam Graves several times, and she's been in this race for over a year. I'm surprised they're not dropping money here.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:23:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kay Barnes is a strong candidate, I think MO-09

is higher on the DCCC's list for a couple of reasons.

1. Return on investment.

Both Kay Barnes and Sam Graves are bringing in a boatload of money. 941K there doesn't go as far as in MO-09 which is an open seat and where 941K would be far more than any candidate Democrat or Republican has raised so far.

2. Open Seat with weak Republicans and strong Democrats.

Sam Graves is an incumbent who can be defeated with a strong challenger (like Kay Barnes), but in MO-09 there are two strong Democrats (Baker and Gaw) who face a relatively weak Republican field.

Also I think MO-06 is only about 2 or 3 points more Democratic on the partisan index than MO-09.

FWIW, I have donated to both Judy Baker and Kay Barnes and have both on my ActBlue page.

I'd like the DCCC to fund both races.

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:37:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure

that it is really higher.

These are not the final buys. I would be surprised if the DCCC doesn't drop over a million into MO-06 but I guess they wanted to send a pre-primary signal that MO-09 will be in play.

---

by: Populista @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 00:35:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good point.

Sending a pre-primary single would be a reason for mentioning targeting MO-09 instead of MO-06 right now and a reason that right now MO-09 is the greater focus than MO-06.  

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 18:17:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kind of off topic -- IN GOV $$

There is mixed, but generally good news about the $$ race for Indiana governor between "My Man" Mitch Daniels and Jill Long Thompson.  If you look at the COH, Daniels has a large advantage -- $2.8 million to $1.0 million.  A significant advantage, to be sure, but I don't think it's that bad.

Consider this: JLT has spent about $1.5 million this year (and remember, this includes a very contested primary).  Meanwhile, Daniels has spent a whopping $7.3 million so far this year, including over $4 million in the last three months alone.  I think its clear that the Daniels campaign went for the knock-out punch right away, trying to solidify Daniels as the overwhelming favorite for re-election.  While I think this race still leans in his favor, I really question if this huge media blitz, making the case for his re-election, really was that effective.

Thompson has raised at least enough money to make her case.  She doesn't need as much money as Daniels.  If he's spent all this money making his case, and is still far from a lock for re-election, it is time for JLT and Dennie Oxley to step up and clearly spell out whey they are bettern alternatives for the state.

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 14:14:11 PM UTC

One of the races where

Obama's ground game will have a huge impact.  If his coattails helped her win the Governor's seat, it will make a big difference in the 2010 redistricting.  

---

by: unertl @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 17:21:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What I hate most about the FEC reports are

they don't show self funding - For example.  Both Republicans in LA-04 have self funded $400,000 and $500,000 respectively.  

Races with self funding that makes a big difference in cash raised / CTD: TX-07, LA-04, OR-05, etc.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 15:25:24 PM UTC

great

let them bash themselves in a million dollar primary. I think this seat is in the bag. CAddo and Bossier account for about 350,000 of the population, and Carmouche is going to do reallly well in this area.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:25:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CAN I JUST SAY HOW AWESOME THIS RESOURCE IS!

It's like christmas in July for me.  Great work.  Thank you,

And shout out to Ashwin Madia in MN3.  That's incredible.  

---

by: st paul sage @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 15:58:53 PM UTC

CA-46 is rocking

Given the recent rating your site gave to Debbie Cook's race against Crazy Dana Rohrabacher, as being the most dramatic potential "right to left shift" and hence most appropriate for "targeted giving," ( http://www.swingstateproject.c... )
it seems like Debbie's consistent outraising of Dana is some of the best news here.

But then I may be biased, having written this:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=gmM...  

---

by: Vern Nelson @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 16:02:49 PM UTC

MO-09 Danielle Moore (R)

about 65K raised for the quarter, 86.5K raised total and 37.7K cash on hand.

Two of the top three of The Republicans for the race have have weighed in now and they both raised less than 100K running for an open seat in a red district.

This has to be good news for Judy Baker (the Democratic frontrunner) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (who may become the Republican frontrunner if he shows more ability to raise money than Onder and Moore).

With the DCCC planning to put nearly a million dollars into this race, things are looking good for Judy Baker and the Democrats!

She has raised almost 90K on ActBlue alone (most of it this quarter).

See my ActBlue page here:

http://www.actblue.com/page/wa...

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 16:13:44 PM UTC

Hey now

Anybody got any idea how much Gaw brought in for the 2nd quarter (he ran up $110K in his first quarter)?

The Democratic nominee (Baker or Gaw being the two likely winners of that) will have a geographic advantage as I don't think any of the Republican candidates can hold a lot of support in Boone County (Hulshof consistently won Boone).

Bob Onder would probably lose a lot of support from parts of the district west of Warren County. But Onder's fundraising is propped up by his ability to write checks, so Luetkemeyer shouldn't do an endzone dance yet.

Olivo might do surprisingly well due to his ties to Boone, Franklin, and Gasconade. But if he's the nominee, it will make this even more hiliariously viable.

---

by: RBH @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:02:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baker and Gaw

RBH,

Baker, Gaw and Olivo's numbers aren't out yet.

Baker brought in 112K last quarter and Gaw brought in 110K last quarter so I'd expect them to both beat Onder's 90K this quarter.

Baker has 89K on ActBlue and Gaw has 35K on ActBlue. By comparison Jacob who raised 24K this quarter has only 1K on ActBlue. It's hard to say what the ActBlue numbers mean though since online fundraising is only a piece of the overall fundraising puzzle.

Olivo would be a fun candidate to face.  

---

by: Wayne in Missouri @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:31:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Olivo is a mixed bag

he might do the best of all the Republicans in November in Boone County (after all, he ran the ball real well), but he's such a green candidate that hilarity has ensued before.

But Olivo is a Republican, for now! (which means either he's very focused on the present, or he'd switch after deep thought)

I haven't directly followed the campaign, but I wonder what the impact will be from Jacob being in the race (costing Baker some Boone County votes) and Hulshof running for Governor.

Actually, some Kenny-friendly Dems may vote in the Democratic primary, and hurt Kenny in his primary. I don't know if there's a lot of possible Democratic primary voters who'll be voting in the Republican primary for Hulshof.

(Jeff Harris should draw in more primary voters to take our ballot though*)

And that earmark tour ad Steelman released is pretty hard-hitting. Never mind that Hulshof didn't know about all those earmarks. Never mind that Steelman is hitting Hulshof for supporting the highway bill when it included a lot of Missouri pork.

Much like how some feel the solution to a problem is more cowbell, conservative Republicans like Steelman think that the solution to Missouri's problems is "more conservatism!"

(*- I'm still undecided for Attorney General, which is the last statewide race i'm unsure on)

---

by: RBH @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:48:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tasty

I love these posts, it's too bad they only come once every 3 months...  lol

AZ-1, the DCCC will end up not spending a cent here.  That is quite the disparity for fundraising and CoH.

AZ-3, if Shadegg hadn't unretired, that would've been a pick-up.  Crazy to think in 2 election cycle we would've turned a 6-2 Republican advantage into a 6-2 Democratic advantage.  

CA-4, holy hell Tom McClintock!!!  I wanted to give the title to most raised to Ashwin Madia but alas, that prick had to ruin it.  Very excellent fundraising though for him, I don't think we are going to win that seat at all.

CA-46, Debbie Cook outraised Rohrbacher, nice.  Although, I'm sure Rorhbacher could raise a lot more than that if he wanted to.  Look for that to pick up next quarter.  Same with CA-50.

FL-16, I really don't see why everyone is so worried about this seat.  Excellent fundraising, douchey incumbent yes, but it's PVI isn't anything I'd worry about (R+2 no?).  He'll do fine and we'll hold this seat for awhile until the Republicans certainly gerrymander the hell out of the area again.

GA-8, I'm still worried about this seat.  It's a Lean Democrat probably at best, unless I'm missing something.

IL-10, holy shit.  Obama coattails will carry this one over for us, hopefully.

LA-6, all the fundraising in the world won't help him if Jackson takes enough of the black vote.  Prick.

Looks like New Mexico will have an all Democrat delegation come 2009.  Congrats.

TX-7, TX-10, excellent numbers.  Anohter 2 seats in TX would certainly make us all feel a little better about that bullshit mid-decade redistricting.  Especially, if we keep Lampson, which I highly doubt will happen, even more so when you see Olson outraising Lampson.  Ill say it now, Lampson will be the only Democratic incumbent to lose this cycle.

Virginia looks like it could be kind to us this cycle.  With Warner really being the guy at the top of the ticket in a sense, he could really help all of these races downticket.  The CoH disparity in VA-2 makes that race not really as worth watching but VA-5 and VA-10 are looking damn good.  It could be our PA from 2006, which a Democratic revolution in Virginia would help us for decades to come creating a new swing state with a serious amount of EV's for us to contest.  Very helpful in 2016.

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 16:31:55 PM UTC

Thanks

Fantastic piece of work James.  

---

by: hilltopper @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 17:06:32 PM UTC

Do all filings have to be filed by now?

I live in FL-12, and am looking for Doug Tudor's results.  I'm sure they are not overwhelming, but I know he has raised enough to have to file.  He's raised over $10,000 on Act Blue alone.  But I don't see them on that list, nor do I see any reports on the FEC site?  Are the ones above just the people that have electronically filed?

---

by: JohnnyCougar @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 17:54:21 PM UTC

Yes, all filings were due and I'm pretty sure

everyone electronically files.

Prehaps not.

---

by: wmlawman @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 20:21:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe Tudor filed manually and the FEC hasn't posted it yet

I can't think of any other reason it's not up yet.  I'm getting nervous.

---

by: JohnnyCougar @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:28:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

AZ-01

I take back what I said about Shanker.  It doesn't matter what kind of endorsements he's got, if he can't raise more than $33,000 in a quarter, he's toast.

Thankfully we've got Kirkpatrick there to pick up the slack.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

---

by: Nonpartisan @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:08:35 PM UTC

WI-8 Kagen v. Gard

Bad news out of CD 8.  John Gard cranked up his fundraising significantly.

Kagen is not self funding his campaign this year as he did when he won the open seat in 2006.  In fact his campaign still owes him over $400,000 for loans he made to his campaign.

That said, it is hard to see Gard out spending Kagen this election cycle.  But it still points to the fact that the race in 2008 may prove to be as close as the 2006 race.

The one bright side is Gard is really having trouble gaining traction finding issues to hammer Kagen with.  Gard is one of the desperate Republicans who endlessly repeats the lie about Chinese oil rigs off the coast of America.  Gard is attempting to somehow blame Kagen for gasoline prices, which is laughable of course, but it doesn't take the truth to sway the uninformed in elections we all know.

Here is a link to a Wispolitics.com story on Wisconsin's fundraising.  Scroll down to the Tuesday 7/15/2008 story "Gard narrowly edges Kagen in second quarter fundraising" for more information on congressional fundraising in Wisconsin.

http://www.wispolitics.com/ind...

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

---

by: walja @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:30:28 PM UTC

Consider donating to Kagen. He's a good progressive.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pr...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

---

by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:41:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Polling numbers WI-8 KAGEN v. GARD

New polling out for WI-8 shows this races will be about as close as it was in 2006.

But the brite side is that Kagen's 4 point lead is double his 2006 victory margin.

http://www.postcrescent.com/ap...

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

---

by: walja @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 18:39:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gard internal poll

A 4 point lead in a repub internal works for me.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 19:26:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Minor error.

It's John Culberson, not Joe Culberson.

Great job, James.

---

by: omarka @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 18:44:41 PM UTC

Or... John Cumberson

per local Houston news: http://youtube.com/watch?v=Bx3...

---

by: KainIIIC @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 20:13:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC-10

McHenry (R-inc)raised $145, COH $414
Johnson (D) raised $125, COH $219

Congrats to Daniel Johnson for almost outraising that putz McHenry this quarter!  A little DCCC money sprinkled here will make this one interesting - McHenry has no personal fortune to pour into the race.

---

by: bear83 @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:40:10 PM UTC

thanks for leaving off Ky 01

going to give Ed Whitfield a free ride, another rubber stamp for Bush!!!that needs to go

http://www.ryanforkentucky.com/

http://www.bluegrassroots.org/...

---

by: kilowat @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:42:07 PM UTC

OK, here you go

Heather Ryan (D)  $2,926 CoH  $7,959 CTD
Ed Whitfield (R)  $1,049,183 CoH  $709,279 CTD

---

by: Crisitunity @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 20:35:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Heh.

I'm pretty sure KY-01 was better off when it wasn't mentioned.  

---

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 21:23:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good job as usual

Couple of points:
1.  Can someone with more patience than me make a similar list of how fundraising stands in the open seats?  Where Dems, Reps lead, etc?  Are there any surprises there?  

2.  Berkowtiz might have outraised Young, but Parnell outraised 'em both.  Have there been any primary polls?  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

---

by: Xenocrypt @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 19:45:10 PM UTC

The only

dissapointments are Kissells fundraising.  This is supposed to be one of our best pickups, but he can't even raise 200K in a quarter.  And this district is in the Charlotte media market at least partly, and I doubt advertising here is cheap.  This is the 2nd quarter in a row he's dissapointed with fundraising.  Also Gard outraising Kagen.  I really like Kagen, and we get all of his campaign commercials up here in the U.P. of Michigan, being so close to Green Bay.  I remember the shady campaigning Gard used in 2006, and I don't want him to pull it off this time.

16, Male, MI-01

---

by: Menhen @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 20:19:36 PM UTC

agreed on Kissel

you would think losing by 316 votes (or somewhere around there) would give you a leg up in fundraising.

If anything, the DCCC is certainly going to spend spend spend here since they are embarrassed about 2006 and this seat.

But he should at least be bringing in 250k a quarter I'd say.

---

by: Andrew @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 21:15:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The DCCC may need to do what they did with

Ciro Rodriguez in Dec. 2006 and essentially take over Kissell's campaign in order to get him over the finish line.  Kissell will make a great representative, but fundraising is apparently not his strong suit.

---

by: DCal @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 22:43:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I heard something about Kissell and his style

something to the tone of how his campaign strategy or his district's preferences are something that relies less on fundraising prowess than what we're used to expecting?  Is that true?  I mean, he did get within 329 votes running on a shoestring budget in 2006, so he must have done SOMETHING right.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 13:58:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kissell is very good at organizing events that get

free news coverage, so you are right about him not needing as much money as other candidates.

---

by: DCal @ Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 15:26:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MS-01 - Is Davis their nominee?

Or is there a primary he still needs to win to take on Childers again this fall?  If it's Davis I'm feeling great about that race.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 21:39:50 PM UTC

If I recall correctly

they did the primary for the special election on the same day as the primary for the November election, March 11. Or something else convoluted like that; anyway, yes, they're stuck with Davis.

---

by: Crisitunity @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 22:52:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Open seats

I count 16 R open seats where there was a D advantage last quarter (Bright, Kirkpatrick, Carmouche, Madia, Adler, Stender, Heinrich, Teague, McMahon, Maffei, and Bocceri).  The other 10 had an R advantage.  Both semi-competitive D open seats had a D advantage (Griffith and Schrader).

Looking at fundraising prowess alone, 16+16-6=26 pick-ups.  Eliminating Honeycutt and Russell (somewhat arbitrarily), and you get 28.

---

by: omarka @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 22:42:35 PM UTC

Just as I thought about AZ-01

It's shaping up to be similar to AZ-08 in 2006.  An open seat blowout.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 23:01:40 PM UTC

FL-15 is maddening

There is no reason why we couldn't have gotten a decent candidate for that race.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 23:07:47 PM UTC

I'm liking FL-16!

I had assumed that seat would be a tossup, but the pathetic republican fundraising and their contested primary makes me optimistic.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 23:09:13 PM UTC

Jeb Bradley raised <100K?

That's horrendous for a guy who was the rep for that district until 2006.  akes me feel better about NH-01.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 23:17:48 PM UTC