NJ-03

I bet they pull out of this one. Adler has a ton of cash and it may already be over. Giffords ought to be able to tka care of herself, too.

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by: RandySF @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 21:48:25 PM UTC

Same with MS-01

Probably won't be a need to spend that much in MS-01 either.  The republican running is the same guy Childers beat easily in the special election, and it appears that the guy has all but stopped fundraising for the re-match.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 22:01:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This great

We're looking in good shape

oh and James a little bit of typo but you should put Ms-01 Childers in blue font

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

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by: lordpet8 @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 21:51:00 PM UTC

My mistake.

Thanks for the catch.

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by: James L. @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 22:01:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again, disappointing if carried out

Foster, Childer, Alder and Halvorson don't need close to that much money. It's harder to tell where it is going but McNerney , Maffei and Powers (If he makes it out of the primary) will not need close to that help. I wouldn't mind just adding those totals to Massa and Brown though.

Still quite a few places I would like to see buys in (Wyoming for example) but these are pretty good starts even if they are too safe incumbent heavy.  

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by: Populista @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 22:43:03 PM UTC

Looks like CA and NY are combined figures

Those markets have some overlap, so I'd assume the money totals are for the races combined.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 23:07:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good start, but

I would like to see this spread out even more. Too much money is going either to expensive districts, candidates who already have plenty of cash, or both.  

The DCCC needs to work towards it's own 50-state strategy.  There's a whole lot of inexpensive rural districts that could be competitive with just a little cash spread to each one.

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by: bear83 @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 23:04:10 PM UTC

20 More

This seems too conservative by far.  I can easily think of 20 more seats that might merit an investment.  Some are stretches but by tying the GOPers down, we improve our chances across the board.  This doesn't even cost money at this point.

NJ-5  What is keeping Garrett afloat is a small though significant fund raising edge.  $500 K gives Shulman a clear lead.

OH-2  Wulsin ansd Schmidt are even in cash and this has been a consistent nailbiter.  Put Schmidt out of her misery.  $1 million now.

NJ-4  Great PVI and Chris Smith is not well funded.

PA-3  Again $500 k would make a world of difference.  English could go.

PA-5  Why not?  Open seat.

PA-6  After two epics why abandon this?

PA-15  Low cost?  With cable.  Great PVI.

MD-1  A once in fifty year shot with the Republican incumbents supporters lining up with us (Kratovil).

IL-6  Hate to hand it to Roskam forever.

IL-18  Must stop Aaron Schock.  The kid and his big mouth could be a Fox News staple.  Colleen Callahan could be the perfect counter.  Familiar, safe, TV savvy.

NC-10  Just hate that twerp McHenry.  He shovels his cash to other districts.  Make hin stay at home (district number could be wrong)

IN-3  Widely touted here with Montagano raising cash.

VA-2  Close last time.  Close now?

VA-5  I scream, you scream, we all scream for Perriello.  A very good candidate in a makeable district.

VA-10  The district is changing but Frank Wolfe has been there forever.  Judy Feder can make it close.  Let's get the winning push a la Nancy Boyda in 2008.

FL-8  Rick Keller.  What is missing?

TX-10  We play defense in two districts. All things being equal, this may be the best spot to put the money.  My gut feel says that Ciro should be safe and Lampson's district will be harder to hold than TX-7.  What do you think?

IA-4 Latham got a tussle last cycle fron Selden Spencer (a great candidate).  The ground in Iowa is hifting in our favor and we need to take out Latham before redistricting as that would leave a 4-1 Dem delegation with Boswell retiring becoming 3-1 and not a 2-2.

NV-2  Jill Derby is a good candidate.  Heller is in his first term.  Take him out now or we'll need an atom bomb.

DE-At Large  Castle still has 3 and a half days to file.  Make him sweat.  The best PVI seat in the country we do not hold.

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by: David Kowalski @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 23:47:17 PM UTC

Give them time

I'm sure most of those races will soon have plenty of cash committed.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Jul 21, 2008 at 23:57:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NV-02, DE-AL

NV-02: The funny (sad? disturbing?) thing is that that area has probably seen them before.

DE-AL: I'm going to guess that Castle's gonna file again.  But it would be interesting if he didn't, and various dark-horse candidates file, and DE ends up being represented by a political newbie from any party--who, if awesome, shakes up the entire DC establishment.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 00:31:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect that if Castle didn't file

He'd tip off someone who he wants to run and win in his place.  However, this is Delaware we're talking about.  Even if they pulled a last minute bait and switch we could probably fund the no-name Dem candidate (Jerry Northington)sufficiently to make it a real race.

The Dem candidate at least has  decent website, that's a start.
http://www.northington08.com/

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 00:46:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's cuz Jerry is a blogger

he blogs at dailykos as possum. He's a great guy. I'm not sure if he can win but he can give Castle a run for his money hopefully.

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by: Populista @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 02:41:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IL-18, NC-10

NC-10: Yeah, I think you have the district number right.

IL-18: Why isn't anyone else as concerned that Aaron Schock might get to Congress?  This guy is a crazy nut, and actually concerns me as an American citizen that he might say stupid enough things that put our country in danger.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 00:34:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well we didn't get a top-tier candidate in IL-18

Granted Colleen Callahan sounds like a decent candidate, she's nowhere near being top-tier.  Her fundraising has been sub-par as well.  I'm waiting to see a couple polls on that race.  I wish Versace had stayed in the race.  At least he has high name recognition.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 00:50:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Give him some time to say nuttier things, and us time to recruit a real candidate

Put up with him in congress for two years, and we'll give him hell in 2010.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 04:36:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC-10

ought to be on the list.  Daniel Johnson is a first -rate candidate.

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by: bear83 @ Tue Jul 22, 2008 at 03:24:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]