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Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Illinois Results

Posted by DavidNYC

So Duckworth ekes out a narrow win, 44-40 (give or take). Bowers says he heard over and over that Duckworth would win in a landslide, and takes the small margin as a sign that the establishment powers are in weak shape. I consider any "blowout" talk to have been mostly bluster - was any of it even on the record? - and I always expected this one to be relatively close.

I wonder, though, if Cegelis supporters are unhappy with Lindy Scott right now. As another "outsider" candidate, I have to believe he took more votes away from Cegelis than from Duckworth. That's just Monday morning quarterbacking, though. The real issue is will Cegelis supporters show up for Duckworth - and what will Duckworth do to make that happen?

In any event, Topinka (unfortunately) pulled out a narrow win of her own over uber-right-winger Jim Oberweis, 38-32. Blago will have a serious fight on his hands this fall, no doubt about it. And in IL-08, David McSweeney (one of the rich self-funders) won with 43 percent of the vote. Bean, fortunately, has raised a lot of money herself, and I think she'll be able to hold off her challenger quite ably.

One other piece of related news: Fighting Dem John Laesch also won his primary against Ruben Zamora in IL-14. Laesch now gets to take on Speaker of the House (remember him?) Denny Hastert.

Posted at 12:02 PM in 2006 Elections, Illinois | Technorati

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I would hope that Cegelis supporters don't take their frustration with the Dem establishment out on Duckworth, who had every right to challenge Cegelis for this seat. Without a doubt, Cegelis got a raw deal from the party, but her supporters will get a much rawer deal if Peter Roskam becomes their new Congressman.

And Topinka's victory means we're likely to have a contest on our hands in November. Ultimately, the crowded field of wingnuts worked to her advantage.

As an aside, I read that another Fighting Dem has fallen....Tim Dunn of NC-08, who deferred his candidacy to another Democratic contender that strikes me as far less likely to inspire the social conservative voters of the area. I highly doubt this race is still a top-tier pick-up opportunity if it ever actually was.

Posted by: Mark [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 12:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the link to MyDD. Most of the Duckworth win bashing by people claiming to be democrats sounds exactly like what republicans are saying on another site I visit. Interesting.
Fact is that 60% of the voters in CD-6 did not think Cegelis was the best choice to take on Roskam, and I agree with that principle.
I'm of the opinion that Duckworth has the notoriety to get the free coverage and funds and appeal to make this more competitive than Cegelis would have.
I was hoping that Duckworth would have gotten over 50% of the vote, however given her late entry and the fact that Cegelis had a 3 year head start, maybe it shouldn't be so surprising. The hot statewide contest was on the GOP side, that could have easily impacted turnout, any number of moderates and women may have chosen to cast a ballot for Topinka thereby bypassing the Dem contest in CD-6.
This is a republican district, as is CD-8, and our best chances have been realized. This administration's approval ratings are in the toilet, all is not hopeless.

Also, the republican primary in CD-8 made the CD-6 contest look like a garden party, it was very nasty between Salvi & McSweeney & Churchill.
I applaud the CD-6 candidates for not going down that path and hope they see that Roskam is not the alternative.

Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When it comes to the "Black Knight" idea ("Duckworth didn't win by enough"). I don't really think there is enough to come to a verdict about the establishment.

The Congressional races
01st: Rush (D) v. Jason Tabour (R)
02nd: Jackson (D) v. Robert Belin (R)
03rd: Lipinski (D) v. Spanky the Clown (R)
04th: Gutierrez (D) v. Ann Melichar (R)
05th: Rahmbo (D) v. Kevin White (R)
06th: Roskam (R) v. Duckworth (D)
07th: Davis (D) v. Charles Hutchinson (R)
08th: Bean (D) v. McSweeney (R)
09th: Schakowsky (D) v. Michael Shannon (R)
10th: Kirk (R) v. Dan Seals (D)
11th: Weller (R) v. John Pavich (D)
12th: Costello (D) unopposed
13th: Biggert (R) v. Joseph Shannon (D)
14th: Hastert (R) v. John Laesch (D)
15th: Johnson (R) v. David Gill (D)
16th: Manzullo (R) v. Dick Auman (D)
17th: Evans (D) v. Andrea Zinga (R)
18th: LaHood (R) v. Steve Waterworth (D)
19th: Shimkus (R) v. Dan Stover (D)

And here are the non-incumbents latest filings with the FEC (if someone isn't listed, they didn't file), numbers as of March 1st:

Duckworth: $517,747 raised, $395,788 spent, $121,957 on hand
Roskam: $1,140,939 raised, $334,736 spent, $806,928 on hand

When it comes to Duckworth/Cegelis, Tammy raised almost $200K more than Cegelis, spent almost $150K more, and had around $45K more on hand on the 1st. Which isn't as bad as some Cegelis supporters claimed (when it comes to spending)

McSweeney: $2,007,885 raised, $1,484,847 spent, $523,248 on hand

Bean has almost 3 times the amount of money on hand.

Dan Seals: $171,161 raised, $38,474 spent, $132,687 on hand

John Pavich: $261,639 raised, $86,730 spent, $174,939 on hand

Joe Shannon: $38,175 raised, $8,938 spent, $29,236 on hand

Laesch: $35,498 raised, $32,553 spent, $2,944 on hand

Gill: $80,776 raised, $46,979 spent, $36,039 on hand

Auman: $27,025 raised, $6,804 spent, $20,220 on hand

Zinga: $54,683 raised, $51,960 spent, $3,601 on hand

Stover: $29,522 raised, $12,475 spent, $16,796 on hand

Laesch's numbers are surprisingly low though.

Posted by: RBH [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here's info from CQ, the rest of the article including a breakdown of contributions/contributors is featured.
CQ Politics 3/22/06:

House: To No One's Surprise, GOP Expands Cash Advantage
By Greg Giroux | 4:50 PM; Mar. 21, 2006

In what has become a wholly predictable outcome, the national Republican Party’s House campaign organization raised more money last month than its Democratic counterpart.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported raising $5.4 million in February. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) took in $3.1 million last month.

That expanded the NRCC’s lead over the DCCC in total receipts for the 2005-06 election cycle. The GOP committee raised $74.1 million through the end of February, to the Democratic unit’s $48.6 million.

The NRCC also narrowly increased its cash-on-hand advantage over its Democratic rival — though this gap is much narrower, because the Republicans also are spending money at a much faster clip. The GOP operation began March with $20.8 million available to spend, compared to $16.3 million for the DCCC.

The chairmen of the two House campaign committees brandished their cash positions in briefings with reporters last week.

Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to gain a House majority — and NRCC Chairman Thomas M. Reynolds, who represents New York’s 26th District, said the DCCC doesn’t have the money to put enough districts in play to pull that off.

But DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois’ 5th District notes that his committee is well ahead of its fundraising pace from last cycle. Emanuel said he is “very comfortable we’ll have the resources we need to have” for the most competitive races."

Continued here:


Posted by: Predictor [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 03:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

And imagine that Duckworth's narrative (story) was so compelling that with the media to spend and the free media she was able to win in 3.5 months against an opponent that had campaigned for 3 years.

Ms. Cegelis should already have an email out to her supporters strongly requesting that they support Duckworth...she earned it. She won.

Posted by: Stuart O'Neill [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 04:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think Cegelis proved the power of the ground game. As much as we donate, we must volunteer and do what ever we can to oust DeLay and co. out of office.

Posted by: jkfp2004 [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 06:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I worked with John Laesch on the David Gill campaign in '04. He's a really good guy. I'm guessing the fundraising totals are due to the fact that nobody thinks he can win.

Perhaps the Big Dog (Stuart) could send them a helpful email?

Posted by: nada [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 07:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Can we win in IL-10 or IL-11 i always thought that IL-11 would be comeptitive and than IL-10 probibly won't but should be because the district is so Democratic.

Posted by: D in FL. [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Why are Lasech's numbers surprisingly low? He's running against the most powerful member of Congress. Some peopel would say this is a suicide mission. I'll admit that his district isn't all that conservative(55/45 Bush) but he's the speaker so you know he gets a lot of pork.

Posted by: safi [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 22, 2006 11:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, I wonder who Chris spoke with, and under what assumptions. I doubt anyone thought it would be a blowout. If anyone advising the Duckworth campaign thought it would be a blowout, they would have counseled restraint on spending for the primary to save up cash for the general. The fact that they appear to have spent a lot for the primary shows me that the Duckworth people and anyone with influence over the campaign didn't think it would be a blowout, and wanted to make sure she got through to the general.

I suspect whoever Chris spoke with was trying to play him.

Posted by: DHinMICH [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 23, 2006 03:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment