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Monday, April 18, 2005

MD-Sen: Mfume Leads in Primary, Cardin Leads in General

Posted by DavidNYC

The Baltimore Sun has a pair of big new polls out for the Maryland senate and governor's races. Buncha things to look at. This post will deal with the senate side of things. This is how the primary is shaping up in the very early running (likely voters, no trendlines):

Kweisi Mfume: 32
Ben Cardin: 26
Chris Van Hollen: 16
Undecided: 24
(MoE: 4.5%)

Mfume is the former head of the NAACP and the only person to officialy declare as a candidate, while Cardin and Van Hollen are both Congressmen. I don't have any particular opinion on this primary, but the Sun does note that Cardin fares best in a head-to-head matchup with the likely GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, clocking in at 41-37. Mfume also leads, 43-41, while Van Hollen trails, 37-41. (These matchups, by the way, have a lower MoE of ±3.2% due to a larger sample size.)

Earlier stories indicated that another MD Congressman, Dutch Ruppersberger, was interested, but he announced last week that he's out. And yet another Rep. - Elijah Cummings - has also made noises, but I'm not sure what his status is. I guess the lesson is that in a small state, every Congressman thinks he can grow up to be Senator one day.

By the way, don't fret too much about Steele's seemingly good showing in a blue state. There may be a worry that, as an African American Republican, Steele might be able to make inroads into the black community. The Sun is pretty emphatic that this isn't the case, stating point-blank that Steele "generally fares no better" than the white Republican governor Robert Ehrlich among blacks.

Furthermore, the Sun buries the most important point in the final paragraphs:

Steele is more conservative than Ehrlich on social issues, and that could pose a problem for him with Maryland voters, Crenson said.

"He's a likable figure, and he's been generally low-profile during this administration. He hasn't been called upon to be the bad guy," Crenson said. "But any Democrat who runs against him is going to try to smoke him out on abortion, stem cell research and gay rights, and he's going to be placed in a very awkward position."

So this guy is a tabula rasa. Just wait until we shake the truth loose.

Anyhow, got any thoughts on the primary? Who do you like?

Posted at 10:34 PM in Maryland | Technorati


I am a Maryland resident. At first I was leaning towards Van Hollen, but Ive realized that Cardin has waited his turn graciously. He has done alot for the state of Maryland and therefore deserves the nomination. Plus, he seems to be the strongest general election candidate. His CD stretches from Ann Arundel county (A REP-Stronghold) all the way through Baltimore City (A DEM-Stronghold). If Van Hollen drops out of the primary Cardin will essentially be a shoo-in. If Van Hollen decided to run Mfume will probably win the primary. Unless, another Af-American candidate enters the race. BTW, Cardin will trounce Lt. Gov. Steele in the general election.

Posted by: nickshepDEM [TypeKey Profile Page] at April 19, 2005 01:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment