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Thursday, August 12, 2004
More Good News for Kerry in Florida
Posted by DavidNYCAh, silly major news organizations. They all but snickered when they determined that Kerry didn't see a post-convention bounce, or a big enough post-convention bounce, or a post-convention bounce that was the size of Moby Dick after an eating binge. Or whatever it was they were looking for. As is typical of our decrepit media, though, they couldn't be bothered to look hard enough, or even in the right places. I say this because the good swing state news (be sure to see Chris's post below) keeps rolling right on in.
Quinnipiac just released a Florida poll today, and it's all smiles (registered voters, late June in parens):
Kerry: 49 (46)
Bush: 42 (44)
Other/Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ��3%)
This is the second poll in the past week or so to show Kerry stretching his lead in Florida. And thanks to the large sample size here (N=1,094), we know that this lead is outside the MoE.
Other highlights: Bush's job approval is way below the Mendoza line at 44-54 (and sinking from June's 46-52). Favorability ratings are also U-G-L-Y for Dubya: 38-43, with 17% saying "mixed." Kerry's in positive territory at 39-31-21, and again, his numbers have improved since June (30-33), again demonstrating that Bush's plan to drive up Kerry's unfaves has moved into Edsel territory. Only 10% of respondents say they are "very satisfied" with "the way things are going in the nation today." And finally, 49% of people say that the war in Iraq was the "wrong thing" while 45% say it was the right thing.
Florida's late Senate primary is coming up soon (Aug. 31st). Polling indicates that Betty Castor is likely to win for the Dems. Any thoughts on what her chances might be, and if Kerry-Edwards might have coattails? (As an aside, I absolutely hate late primaries. We have them in September in New York - just six weeks before the general election - and the only thing they do is provide protection for incumbents, who don't have to face bloody primary battles that last all summer.)
(Q-Poll thanks to reader science in comments.)
Posted at 03:05 PM in Florida | Technorati
Comments
The stars are lining up for Kerry to win Florida this year. I think Kerry will win FL. A lot of Republicans are confident that their biy Bush will take Florida, but it's not going to happen. Kerry has too much going for him in FL this year.
Posted by: Rock_nj at August 12, 2004 03:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looking at the poll, it seems that the swnig voters in FL have a favorable impression of shrub, but this is still more good news.
Posted by: Steve at August 12, 2004 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"49% of people say that the war in Iraq was the "wrong thing" while 45% say it was the right thing."
Which group is John Kerry a part of?.....
Just curious.
Posted by: Tucker at August 12, 2004 08:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Its pretty lear that Kerry thinks it was the right thing and has no intention of getting out. Our work will not be done after his election. In 1971 Kerry asked "Who will be the last man to die for a mistake?" Its still a good question.
Posted by: Christopher Day at August 12, 2004 09:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry didn't say "Who will be the last man to die for a mistake?" he siad "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" Anyway why does the last man matter more than the first man. Who wants to die for a war that does nothing at all regardless of where you are in the order. I would really love to see the Bush twins sign up since they are so supportive of the war. They should put their money where their mouth is so to speak.
Posted by: Jocko Johnson at August 12, 2004 09:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just checked Tradesports and Bush has dropped to 49.1!
http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
Posted by: Christopher Day at August 12, 2004 09:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A big difference between 2000 and 2004 that affects older Floridians is the state of the financial markets. In 2000, interest rates were higher, and the equity markets had only begun to swoon. In the past four years, retirees have seen their equity investments shrink and their interest income shrivel. Kerry's campaign material in FL and other places with lots of retirees (AZ, NV) needs to ask these folks if they really want four more years of lousy financial markets.
Posted by: Profmsf at August 13, 2004 10:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You know I have seen this poll and most others giving Kerry the lead and Bush a below 50% approval. Have you noticed that Gallup has been disputing this since the convention. They have bush at 51% approval which I can't imagine. I mean I haven't seen anything get better in the last two weeks to warrant it. They also have Bush up nationally by 2%, going against almost every other major control. Sounds like a Bushie has infiltrated Gallup.
Posted by: Michael at August 13, 2004 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I see where political pundits are already expressing that Hurricane Charley has given Bush a golden opportunity to influence voters in Florida. Bush will make himself highly visible there and he will ensure that the state gets a huge amount of federal relief as quickly as possible to rebuild all the damage done by Charley. It was also noted that the hurricane's damage took place in the most hotly contested section of the state. What do y'all think about this? Will Bush's lavish attention and federal aid impact voters in the Sunshine State?
Posted by: Pepe at August 13, 2004 11:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I see where political pundits are already expressing that Hurricane Charley has given Bush a golden opportunity to influence voters in Florida. Bush will make himself highly visible there and he will ensure that the state gets a huge amount of federal relief as quickly as possible to rebuild all the damage done by Charley.
I think that's rather silly. The only way this could have any impact if Bush were to *not* approve Federal aid to Florida, which ain't going to happen. People *expect* the President to proclaim hurricane-hit areas as eligible for Federal relief, so doing so is completely pro forma. Won't help at all.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 14, 2004 12:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, Charley was projected to hit the most hotly-contested region of Florida, that being the Tampa-St. Petersburg area. But it made a surprising sharp right turn and directly hit a couple hours southwest of Tampa-St. Pete in the Republican strongholds of Charlotte and Lee Counties. This is Porter Goss country...staunchly Republican. If Tampa-St. Pete has received substantial hurricane damage, I haven't heard it. This will reduce the national political implications somewhat, but I still suspect you are correct in assuming that Bush will ride on down to Florida and makes the headlines for days doling out money to hurricane-ravaged FL residents and playing the role of Santa Claus. We'll have to wait and see how it plays out, but I do believe Bush gets at least a short-term bump because of it.
Posted by: Mark at August 14, 2004 10:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Michael I've also been wondering about the Gallup results. I'd like to think they picked a bad sample, but hasn't this occurred in two consecutive polls? My best guess is that Gallup had two consecutive bad sample pools, but I thought Gallup was better than that.
Posted by: rob at August 14, 2004 04:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ED FITZ YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. I LIVE IN THE HOTLY-CONTESTED I-4 CORRIDOR(TAMPA)WHERE SOME DAMAGE IN THE LAKELAND AND ORLANDO AREAS DID OCCUR BUT THE DEVASTATION DID HAPPEN IN THE REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS OF CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA; NOT CENTRAL OR CENTRALWEST FLORIDA WHERE IT WAS PREDICTED THE HURRICANE WOULD HIT. BY THE WAY THE DESTRUCTION IS UNBELEIVABLE AND VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN MIAMI DURING HURRICANE ANDREW IN 1992. IT WAS NATURAL THE BUSH CAME TO VISIT THE FEDERALLY DECLARED DISASTER ZONES, ITS HIS JOB. I DO NOT AGREE WITH HIM AND HIS ADMINISTRATION AND POLICIES BUT HE "HAD" TO COME. NOW FOR THE POLITICS OF THE AREA, I BELEIVE THE UNFORTUNATE DISASTER WILL AFFECT REPUBLICAN TURNOUT THIS MONTH FOR THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY BY DECREASING IT SUBSTANCIALLY. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TIGHT MCCOLLUM VS. MARTINEZ PRIMARY RACE BUT WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE BETTY CASTOR FROM MY HOMETOWN OF TAMPA WILL BE THE VICTOR IN HER RESPECTIVE PRIMARY. THE GENERAL ELECTION RACE BETWEEN THE TO CASTOR VS MCCOLLUM/MARTINEZ RACE WILL BE JUST AS TIGHT AND FOUGHT OUT AS THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE BUT AT THIS TIME I HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO KERRY FOR PRESIDENT AND CASTOR FOR SENATE WHERE SHE MIGHT HAVE COATTAILS AS DID NELSON(D) IN 2000.SHE BELONGS TO THE MODERATE WING OF DEMOCRATS IN FLORIDA IN THE MOLD OF GRAHAM,CHILES,AND NELSON AS WELLS AS HAVING WON STATEWIDE TWICE EVEN CARRYING MANY REPUBLICAN COUNITES AND HOLDING HER OWN IN REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS.SHE HAS RECENTLY RECEIVED THE ENDORSEMENT OF EVERY AND I MEAN "EVERY" MAJOR NEWSPAPER IN FLORIDA. BY THE WAY, HURRICANE CHARLEY DID HIT THE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICAN AND SOON TO BE CIA DIRECTOR PORTER GOSS'HOME CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
Posted by: BORIS IN TAMPA at August 16, 2004 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry sounds like an idiot every time he speaks. I don't think the man thinks before he speaks.
Bush gets my vote here in Florida. He had to take us through 9/11 and the Clinton Recession. Give him another term and things will be changing for the better. They already are.
Posted by: Luke at August 18, 2004 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry's sounds like an idiot every time he speaks. I don't think the man thinks before he speaks.
Bush gets my vote here in Florida. He had to take us through 9/11 and the Clinton Recession. Give him another term and things will be changing for the better. They already are.
Posted by: Luke at August 18, 2004 04:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That is like the pot calling the kettle black. Bush misspeaks so often that someone wrote a book called Bushisms to chronicle his classic misquotes. Kerry sounds extremely articulate in comparission to the chimp.
Are you just being sarcastic? The Clinton recession? Are you for real? Recessions are animals onto themselves. I don't really think either Bush or Clinton had much to do with them.
Posted by: Rock_nj at August 18, 2004 04:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment