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Wednesday, August 11, 2004
ARG: Wide Kerry Lead in FL
Posted by DavidNYCARG polled Florida last week (likely voters, July in parens):
Kerry: 52 (49)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 6 (4)
(MoE: ��4%)
This latest surge all but pushes Kerry outside of the MoE. Even better are the favorability ratings. Kerry now stands at 54-41, an improvement from last month's 51-44. Bush, meanwhile, stands at at 45-48, and has been trickling downward lately. Perhaps most striking is the fact that back in March, Kerry was at an even 41-41. This indicates that Bush has been unable to push Kerry's unfavorables up at all in five months, despite spending millions of dollars toward that end. As Chris has observed in the past, heightening Kerry's unfavorables seems to be the main plank of Bush's re-election strategy - and it appears to be failing badly, at least in Florida.
The undecideds have all but vanished in this poll, but what few remain definitely cannot be breaking for Bush. Kerry also has a ten-point edge among independents (but they don't seem to be quite the force they are in other swing states, such as Arizona - just 16% of those polled here). And the results are still strong even with Nader - 50-43-2-5 (K-B-N-U) - who may apparently make the ballot here.
Even if Bush were to peel off Iowa & Wisconsin, Kerry-Edwards would still win (270-268) if we win Florida. For Bush to win without Florida, he'd also have to nab a second-tier state (say, MN, OR, or NM - all of which would be reaches for him) in addition to IA and WI. (I'm assuming those are our two most vulnerable states.) Bottom line is that when you run the numbers, it's hard to find a way for Bush to win without Florida.
Posted at 08:20 PM in Florida | Technorati
Comments
I'll believe those numbers when I see a trend of 8-point margins. One poll isn't enough.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 12, 2004 09:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If it sounds too good to be true, it is almost always too good to be true.
Posted by: Pepe at August 12, 2004 09:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Inkan1969: Another poll out this morning, shows Kerry up 47-41.
Posted by: science at August 12, 2004 10:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I LIVE IN FLORIDA'S I-4 CORRIDOR WHICH STRETCHES FROM TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG-ORLANDO-DAYTONA BEACH AND ALL THE MOST RECENT POLLS THAT I HAVE SEEN STARTING IN JULY HAVE BEEN REMINISCENT OF 2000.THEY ARE ALL TRENDING IN FAVOR OF KERRY-EDWARDS IN THIS SWING/INDEPENDENT/CRUCIAL PART OF FLORIDA.ANY STATEWIDE CANDIDATE IN FLORIDA MUST WIN OR BREAK EVEN IN THIS PART OF THE STATE TO WIN.IT IS NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD FOR BUSH-CHENEY;I DONT THINK EVEN HIS BROTHER JEB CAN HELP HIM THIS TIME.
Posted by: BO at August 12, 2004 10:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looks like you ran out of space, science. :-) But I read about the Quinnipac poll over at realclearpolitics.com. Now the news is starting to turn good. :-) If Bush/Cheney shifts their focus on Florida then Kerry/Edwards should counter with a heavy focus on Ohio, to try to close the Bush lead there. Good playing in two different fields.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 12, 2004 12:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Yahoo article also talked about how Jeb was losing popularity in Florida. Any truth to that Florida residents.
Posted by: Michael at August 12, 2004 01:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: melodias at November 3, 2004 01:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment