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Monday, August 02, 2004

ARG Polls Taken During the Convention

Posted by DavidNYC

ARG profiled Iowa from July 26-28, which, it should be noted, was before John Kerry spoke on Thursday night at the convention. The results (likely voters, mid-April in parens):

Kerry: 47 (48)
Bush: 47 (47)
Undecided: 6 (5)
(MoE: ��4%)

Bush & Kerry have almost identical favorability ratings: 49-45 for Bush and 50-44 for Kerry. Bush has remained pretty much constant, but Kerry was at 42-34 in April, suggesting that he's been able to increase his positives at the same time that Bush has driven up his negatives. If these numbers hold until election day - ie, essentially tied across the board - I'd say Iowa is ours.

ARG also looked at West Virginia during the same time-frame. The deltas are equally unexciting (likely voters, mid-June in parens):

Kerry: 48 (48)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

Somewhat to my surprise, Kerry is doing a lot better here on favorability than I would have expected. I'd have figured that Bush's exploitation of Kerry's socially liberal record would have badly hurt Kerry, as it did with Gore. But the challenger stands at 53-37, while Bush is at 44-50. At least according to ARG, it looks like Bush is in serious trouble here. It was only in March that his numbers were 61-37. That's a pretty precipitous drop, if you ask me. So maybe WV is ready to return to the Democratic fold.

I'm not aware of any other state polls that were taken after the convention. (Do pollsters not work on weekends?) But if you know of any, or hear about any, please let us know.

Posted at 01:28 AM in Iowa, West Virginia | Technorati


Oh Ga-Geetch Ga, I should of gone home to get polled. Now Iowa looks like its tied. B-)

But thanks for posting these, I've been rather low on state polling lately. It seems they don't do many polls late in the month....

Posted by: Izixs at August 2, 2004 01:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just as long as you are voting absentee in IA...!

Posted by: DavidNYC at August 2, 2004 01:46 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Oh I'll be living in my home state again in about 19 days. I've just been away on an internship type deal for the summer. So I'll be voting in person which is my preferred way. But if they had those diebold monstrosities in my county, I'd probably vote absentee anyway, but thankfully our county has avoided them.

Posted by: Izixs at August 2, 2004 10:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment