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Saturday, July 31, 2004
Apartment Hunting
Posted by DavidNYCI'm down in DC this weekend, hunting for apartments, hence the light posting. The search is going pretty abysmally - sigh. Anyone got any leads?
P.S. Newsweek has a new post-convention poll. It has Kerry up 52-44. The previous poll (from early July) had Kerry up 51-45. (MoE: ��4%.) So a "baby bounce," as the headline puts it. With Nader factored in, Kerry saw his lead jump from +3 to +7. Also, independents now support Kerry in this poll 45-39. And one other thing which I was glad to see: 57% of respondents said they think Kerry is the kind of person who "cares about someone like them," whereas only 44% said the same thing about Bush. So, media, can we put to rest this ridiculous idea that Bush is somehow a "regular guy" who people would rather have a beer with than Kerry? Because that's obviously not the case.
Posted at 06:37 PM in Site News | Technorati
Comments
Hi Dave, I used to work in D.C.
I lived in an apartment building in Pentagon City called Riverhouse. If you are looking for something moderately priced it isn't bad, and it's right off the Pentagon City Metro.
It's across the street from a nice public park and a public library.
Posted by: Rob at July 31, 2004 08:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Dave,
On November 2 there may be a house open at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. that you could move into. Maybe we can evict him early because he occupies that house illegally anyway. I'm sure the rent is steep but maybe Kerry can give you a deal for all the help you have given him.
Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 31, 2004 08:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here is Ruy Teixeira's analysis.
By the way he's a Democratic Pollster.
Before We Pronounce on the Bounce, Let's Measure It Properly Shall We?
Newsweek is first out of the box with a poll and story on Kerry's bounce from the convention. There's just one slight problem: the data they report in the story don't really measure Kerry's bounce at all.
Check this out. Newsweek's last poll before the convention was on July 8-9 and Kerry led Bush, 51-45. In the current poll, conducted July 29-30, Kerry leads Bush, 52-44. From this they conclude Kerry got a "baby bounce" from the convention (1 point on support level, 2 points on margin or, if you look at their Kerry-Bush-Nader data, 2 points on support level, 4 points on margin).
But, as their story sheepishly admits, half of their poll was conducted on Thursday night, before Kerry had delivered his acceptance speech! Moreover, their results differ on the two nights, with Kerry leading by 2 points in the pre-acceptance speech data and by 10 points in the post-acceptance speech data.
What possible excuse can there be for presenting these data as measuring Kerry's bounce from the convention, when the effect of the most important event of the convention isn't included in half the data? Perhaps there is one, but I can't think of it.
And that's not all that's wrong with their bounce measure. To make their sin even more egregious, the previous poll they use as a point of comparison is way too long ago (July 8-9) to be a real before/after comparison. What if the race was closer before the convention than it was on July 8-9? Then using July 8-9 as a point of comparison would further contribute to understating Kerry's bounce from the convention.
And in fact that appears to be the case. In the Gallup poll, Kerry was leading 51-44 on July 8-11 but only 49-45 on July 19-21. So using July 8-9 as the comparison period probably knocks several more points off Kerry's bounce.
In short, Newsweek's analysis is totally bogus. Before we pronounce on the bounce, I suggest we wait until we've got some data that actually measures it.
Posted by: mississippi john at August 1, 2004 12:04 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
And *really*, how many responsible Americans want to have a beer with a recovering alcoholic?
Posted by: osterizer at August 1, 2004 10:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm a Kerry supporter and a few years ago I had the privilege of spending a weekend with him and other senators discussing issues regarding high technology. Given this, I still think it would be more fun and relaxing to hang out and have a beer with George Bush. Kerry is intense. He's commanding. He's very very smart. I would trust my life and the life of my family in his hands. But he is not warm and fuzzy. He can be intimidating and confrontational. He has the reputation of being arrogant and aloof, and from what I've seen and everything I've heard from people who know him better than I, this is a fair assessment. Yet I know he would be a good leader for our country. I think the American people are beginning to see that Kerry is someone whom they can trust. Someone who is well prepared to lead this country in scary times. Kerry is a commander, not a good ole boy. Have a beer with Bush but give the country's reins to Kerry.
Posted by: elise at August 1, 2004 04:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah, that's just what Bush needs...a beer. The man can barely chew pretzels without choking to death. I don't think he needs to have a beer with anyone. Besides, he says that he doesn't drink alcohol anymore, so the question is moot.
Posted by: Mark at August 1, 2004 05:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment