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Wednesday, July 14, 2004

Pennsylvania Q-Poll: Kerry Stays in the Lead

Posted by Fester

Quinnipiac University has a new poll out, conducted between July 6-11 with 1,577 registered Pennsylvania voters (late June in parens):

Kerry: 49
Bush: 42
Other/Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��2.5%)

In a three-way race (with Nader included), John Kerry and John Edwards have opened up a five-point lead over Bush/Cheney. But Nader is having massive ballot-access problems in PA.

The poll is also reporting that Kerry is gaining strength in Southwestern Pennsylvania and is strengthening his support among union members. My personal guess is that a combination of the unions institutionally feeling betrayed by Bush due to his flip-flop on steel tariffs, greater union discipline, and an unwillingness to vote on cultural versus economic issues is all starting to have an effect on solidifying this part of the Democratic winning coalition. We are also dealing with the start of an Edwards bounce as we enter the second phase of the campaign. The electorate has decided that Bush probably does not deserve a second term but the alternative needs to be examined. Well, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is looking mighty attractive so this is some good news.

Finally, I would want to wait to see if the Q-poll result is replicated with a couple of other outside the MoE leads for Kerry before the convention - but this could offer a good explanation as to why Pennsylvania is not flooded with television advertisments. Pennsylvania could be a swing state with a strong Kerry lean that needs some defense, but may not be a prime flip target. Interesting!

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

[Post modified slightly to put polling results in standard SSP format. - David]

Posted at 01:46 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


As I wrote at MyDD, "I didn't notice the first time I looked at the poll, but Bush has a 37-59 approve / disapprove among independents in this poll, while Dems and Reps are 82-16 mirrors. Further, Bush's unfavorables among indies are at 46, while Kerry's are at 19. These are nail in the coffin type numbers."


Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 14, 2004 02:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you want your outside the MOE duplication, Zogby has Kerry up 7.3% in Pennsylvania even with Nader in the race.

Posted by: Disenfranchised Floridian at July 14, 2004 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Is Nader on the ballot? What are chances of attaining Ballot access??

Posted by: steve at July 14, 2004 04:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good question? I don't think Nader will even get on a dozen ballots this year. There are a lot of states where Kerry's lead grows a lot when Nader is out of the question. One thing I think for sure, Nader won't get the percentages that he's polling. When a poll says 5% for Nader, look for something more like 2%.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 14, 2004 07:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nader has a moderate chance of getting on the ballot in PA ; I think if 40% of Nader supporters try to put him on the ballot he will get there.

Posted by: niq at July 14, 2004 09:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I just got off the phone with the Allegheny County Election division and right now neither Reform nor Greens are on the ballot for November in Pennsylvania. The Southwest PA Green Party is supporting David Cobb, and from conversations that I have had with a couple of active Greens, they personally are not going to help Nader one bit if there is a petition campaign to get him on the ballot.

Nader wants to get 40,000 signatures assembled by then. The requirement is 25,697 by August 2, 2004. I am trying to contact the PA Nader ballot access coordinator to get hard figures, but my guess is that I have seen very little on the ground signature collection right now for Nader and the universities are deserted so there is no cheap/easy pool of signatures to grab. I am putting the odds of Nader making the PA ballot at 20%.

Posted by: fester at July 15, 2004 10:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fester, Please keep us posted on this. If they make it so be it, but they need to have every t crossed and every i dotted.

Looking at the numbers, I think Bush is finished in PA without Nader.

Posted by: steve at July 15, 2004 11:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Uncle Fester? LOL! :-)

Yes, with Nader off the ballot in PA, Bush is DOOMED! No way Bush wins PA without Nader.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 15, 2004 03:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am still trying to get ahold of the ballot access coordinators for Nader. From what I have learned they are paying signature collecting volunteers $1 per signature and they are employing at least one professional collecter at $2 a signature. The goal is 40,000 signatures by August 2, 2004. At these pay rates, they are looking to spend at least $50,000 on signature collection alone.

Posted by: fester at July 18, 2004 01:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fester, I am not sure Nader is making an impact on Kerry's #'s anyway. Every poll I see seems to siphon off almost as much Bush support as Kerry.

Posted by: steve at July 18, 2004 11:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We have Volunteers in southern CA, need swing state projects that can be done at our camapign
We have done 750 MMOB letters, we are looking for additional projects that don't require a cash outlay (we don't want to pay postage).
We have unused cell phone minutes for long distance calls and are able to stuff envelopes, etc.

Posted by: Dianne at September 15, 2004 08:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment