« Pennsylvania Q-Poll: Kerry Stays in the Lead | Main | General Election Cattle Call, July 14 »

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

Gallup: 15-Point Lead for Bush in NC

Posted by DavidNYC

Sigh. Not quite sure what to make of this one from Gallup (no trendlines; post-Edwards; likely voters):

Kerry: 41
Bush: 56
Other: 3
(MoE: ��5%)

Seems like quite an outlier, compared to all the other NC polls. When looking at registered voters, the gap is not quite so bad, 51-44. Edwards gets very high favorables here, 63-29, and 30% of voters say his presence on the ticket makes it more likely they'll vote Dem.

Kerry, however, seems to have nose-dived in just the last few weeks, going from 58-35 on June 23-25 to 49-43 now. That's a 17-point shift. Ugly. And since Bush didn't go on the air in NC until a few days ago, I'm at a loss to explain that drop. Any ideas here, folks?

(Thanks to reader Tucker of DBD.)

Posted at 08:58 PM in North Carolina | Technorati

Comments

I have an idea. Edwards is not liked in his home state. The reason he was not running for reelection after his 1st term in office is because he was goign to lose most likely unless a miracle happened.

So this poll shows that Edwards is not liked in his home state.

Posted by: Jake at July 14, 2004 09:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think it has to be an outlier result, one of those statistical anomalies that happen rarely. There is no way that Kerry would really lose support in Edward's home state by choosing Edwards! I predict that NC will be closer this year than in 2000. I don't think, however, there is any realistic chance that Kerry-Edwards will carry the state. That hope was unrelistic even before this poll. It doesn't matter though, because he will carry enough others to win!

Posted by: Randy Carter at July 14, 2004 10:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Try again, Jake. Or at least, read the post again. Sixty-three percent of North Carolinians say they have a favorable view of Edwards - that's higher than Dubya's rating. Thirty percent say they are more likely to vote for Kerry as a result of him being on the ticket. Only 12% say they are less likely to vote Dem.

If you're going to make the assertion that Edwards isn't liked in his home state, please try to back it up with some evidence next time.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 14, 2004 10:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The key is to disregard "Likely Voters" and look at look at "Registered Voters":

Bush 49%, Kerry 43%, Nader 4%

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-07-12-nc-poll.htm

Also, new NC poll released 7/14 has Bush 48%, Kerry 45%:
http://www.wral.com/news/3530033/detail.html

Posted by: PollFan at July 15, 2004 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My suggestion is that this poll is so out of synch in so many ways that this is one of those "Oops" polls that appear every once in a while proving the human error in us all (including professional pollster types)

If you would believe this poll, then:

Adding a "favorite son" senator with a 63% approval rating would plunge Kerry support from 7% behind to a negative 15%, when the average of every other state shows a 1% to 5% bounce up. HUH???

If you would believe this poll, then adding the favorite-son senator would sharply increase the spread between likely supporters (negative 15%) to registered supporters (negative 7%). In other words, the North Carolina registered voters for Kerry are now more apathetic BECAUSE of Edwards. HUH???

If you believe this poll, which states that registered voters poll Bush/Kerry 51-44 and Bush/Kerry/Nader 49-43-4, then the second choice of Nader's supporters is Bush 50%, Kerry 25%, Other/Don't know 25%. Bush is overwhelmingly the Naderites' second choice! HUH???

By the way, the same Gallup poll says that registered voters are now in favor of Bush vs Kerry+Nader by 49-47 which is only a TWO PERCENT spread, so the same poll suggests Kerry is catching up! Falling behind AND catching up! HUH??????????

The funniest part about this poll is watching the Bush lovers salivate to an illusion. But I guess they had four years practice.

Posted by: jogabr at July 15, 2004 12:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment