Swing State Project: Nuts to That Gallup Poll!

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Thursday, July 15, 2004

Nuts to That Gallup Poll!

Posted by DavidNYC

No, I'm not cherry-picking the results I like - I'm tossing out the bad apples that obviously don't belong. Check out Mason-Dixon's newest for North Carolina:

Kerry: 45
Bush: 48
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

These are the guys who polled Bush over Kerry at 48-41 in May - but had a hypothetical ticket of Kerry/Edwards just one point back in the same poll. The polls may not be entirely comparable (which is why I'm not listing trendlines) because the May polls included Nader while the present poll, oddly enough, included Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik. (As Monty Python might say, Badnarik pulled just about no voted at all in this poll - not a sausage.) This poll, FYI, did include the names of both Pres and VP candidates for all tickets.

Sixty-four percent of those polled approved of Kerry's choice of Edwards, by the way. Bush's favorability rating stands at 50-36-14 (the last number being "neutral"), while Kerry is allegedly 38-36-26. Edwards gets the best spread in the state, at +15, far higher than Cheney, the least popular of all four men (unsurprisingly).

Gallup has some `splainin' to do.

Posted at 01:12 AM in North Carolina | Technorati

Comments

Is this a national or NC poll?

Posted by: steve at July 15, 2004 06:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I am wondering if the polls have been fixed to show that the race is tight/close. It is interesting how a pollster can have 1 poll showing Bush way up then next one Bush is slightly ahead. There was a poll recently from OH I believe, Kerry was up like 6 points then 2 or 3 weeks later, Kerry down 6 or 7 points. People change their mind in 2-3 weeks period, very unlikely.

It is not that hard to fix polls you know. After the Iraq war fiasco, I don't trust the media whores anymore.

Posted by: ben at July 15, 2004 12:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There is a huge group of idependants, who could go either way. I think that explains the volatility. Bill Clinton here is his blog did well in the South, eventhough he was a liberal, so the Kerry is liberal and will therefore lose is mitigated by John Edwards' roots.

Posted by: Cherry Newscomb at July 15, 2004 12:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Clinton was perceived as a Southern moderate, and Southerners like voting for fellow Southerners.

Polls flucuate wildly, which is why you have to take the average to get a real idea about what is going on. Kerry is still down in NC, that's all that really matters. Kerry winning NC is still a long shot. Edwards makes it possible, if he can press the flesh down there.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 15, 2004 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My suggestion is that this poll is so out of synch in so many ways that this is one of those "Oops" polls that appear every once in a while proving the human error in us all.

If you would believe this poll, then:

Adding a "favorite son" senator with a 63% approval rating would plunge Kerry support from 7% behind to a negative 15%, when the average of every other state shows a 1% to 5% bounce up.

Edwards would sharply increase the spread between likely voters (negative 15%) to registered voters (negative 7%). In other words, in North Carolina, registered voters still supporting Kerry are now LESS likely to even bother voting BECAUSE of Edwards.

Registered voters polling Bush/Kerry 51-44 and Bush/Kerry/Nader 49-43-4 means that the second choice of Nader's supporters is Bush 50%, Kerry 25%, Other/Don't know 25%. Bush is therefore overwhelmingly the Naderites' second choice.

Registered voters are now in favor of Bush vs Kerry+Nader by 49-47, only a TWO PERCENT spread, so the same poll suggests Kerry is fact catching up. While simultaneously falling behind.

The funniest part about this poll is watching the Bush lovers salivate to an illusion. But I guess they had four years practice.

Posted by: jogabr at July 15, 2004 04:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If you look at the breakdown by region in this poll, the Raleigh/Durham area has Kerry leading by a landslide. If you omit this region, then the results mirror the Gallup poll. However, the RDU area is the most populous region in NC, and this region is more progressive than the rest of the state because of the presence of three major universities in the area as well as a high concentration of high tech industry.

I wonder if the Gallup poll employed any outlier exclusion methodology in order to get its results?

Posted by: Frank at July 15, 2004 05:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

That's probably why Gallop had such a huge margin for Bush in NC. Problem solved. I don't know if it was done on purpose or not. But, obviously NC is a lot closer than NC leads us to believe.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 15, 2004 06:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Democracy Corps conducted a national poll July 10-13, 2004 of 1,010 likely
voters that indicates John Kerry is making electoral gains after the
selection of John Edwards as his running mate. Kerry now leads Bush
51-46 on the eve of the Democratic convention, and the Democratic
advantage in the generic Congressional race is now 49-42.

Posted today by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg's Group at: www.democracycorps.com

Posted by: Jon Russell at July 16, 2004 02:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What do the pollsters consider metro Charlotte? Are they including Union, Cabarrus, etc? Kerry should win Mecklenburg County.

Posted by: pc at July 16, 2004 07:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think of a different explanation for the Gallup poll's numbers. "Method!"

iirc Gallup has a somewhat old-fashioned preference for face-to-face interviews. And for their interviewers getting their interview partners a) based on quotas and b) on their own.

If Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 use different methods than this, say, standardized and rather anonymous phone interviews, combined with automatic random dialing, they could get VERY different results because of different "potential flaws" of/in the collected data.

Posted by: PJ (Bornheimer) at July 17, 2004 11:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Metro=MSA (look up the US Census bureau's site).

Interesting trend in the Mason-Dixon poll is Western NC... in 2000 that area (everything west of the Triad and Charlotte Metro's) gave Bush a lead over Gore of about 25 points.
If Mason-Dixon is correct, this has fallen to just *7 points*!

Posted by: Al at July 20, 2004 01:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Posted by: melodias at November 3, 2004 11:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

soneries Sonneries Sonneries portable

Posted by: Sonneries at December 16, 2004 12:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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sonneries break02
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sonneries chute04
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sonneries claridad
sonneries clash
sonneries classique
sonneries claude-francois

Posted by: Sonneries at December 27, 2004 01:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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Thursday, July 15, 2004

Nuts to That Gallup Poll!

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