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Thursday, July 08, 2004

Bush Lead Narrows Sharply in Wisconsin

Posted by DavidNYC

In April, the University of Wisconsin did a poll which showed results that most of us could scarcely believe. In March, they had Bush with a six-point lead, but in that April poll, that lead widened to an astounding 50-38. So, a bit of good news: Bush is now down to a four-point lead according to a new poll, conducted in June, pre-Edwards, of course (April trendlines in parens):

Kerry: 42 (38)
Bush: 46 (50)
Nader: 5 (6)
Undecided: 5 (4)
(MoE: ��4%)

I don't like including Nader any longer, but if the polling organizations keep including him, then I feel that I have to as well, for accuracy's sake. Most of the other numbers aren't much changed since March (the last time this outfit asked this particular question). Bush's favorability rating still seems fairly high: 52-42.

But his re-elect numbers got worse - in fact, they reached their worst point yet. When respondents were asked if they'd like to see Bush given a second term, or if they'd prefer to see "someone else," 43% said re-elect and 51% said don't re-elect. In April, those numbers stood at 48-47. (And in the less-anomalous March poll, they were 45-50.) So what this says to me is that some 9% of voters - the difference between the 42% Kerry gets in the horserace and the 51% opposing Bush's re-election - are ready to be pursuaded. That gives me at least some confidence that we can hold on to the Badger State.

Posted at 06:08 PM in Wisconsin | Technorati


Be wary of the Badger poll. It is a small sample (504) and it's of adults, not RV. There has been some discussion on Kos that I do not remember perfectly, that basically suggested that this poll utilizes questionable data collection methods. WI is no doubt close though, IMHO, the GOP's number 1 pick-up opportunity. But I think Edwards helps here, he was well liked by independents in the WI primary.

Posted by: mattb25 at July 8, 2004 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nader won't pull 5%. Anyone know how many ballots he will be on?

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 8, 2004 10:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In Wisconsin, only one.

Posted by: Alex at July 8, 2004 11:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

has he made it yet there?

Posted by: Alex at July 8, 2004 11:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WI is likely to vote for Bush this fall. It's the one state I can see going for Bush that went for Gore in 2000.

Posted by: Rock_nj at July 9, 2004 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Doesn't Wisconsin have a Democrat as governor? Doyle? Is he not popular at the moment? I would hope that the Democratic governors in WI, KY and PA can pull at least a few votes.

Posted by: Profmsf at July 9, 2004 09:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A quick question on Wisconsin. Sen. Feingold is up for reelection, and is very popular, particularily in Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha and Madison areas. Does Kerry receive a measurable bump from this?

Posted by: RJS at July 9, 2004 09:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RE: Wisconsin...
Doyle is not overly popular at the moment (or at least when I last heard from my family), mostly for the usual reneging on campaign promises that no one could possibly keep with the economy as it is. That's also the only reason I could see the state actually going for Bush. As for Kerry getting a bump from Feingold, sure. It's just that the areas mentioned are most likely to vote for Kerry anyhow. The question is whether or not that makes up most of the state.

Posted by: Paige at July 9, 2004 11:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nader may not be a factor, but David Cobb may well be a factor in WI. The Green party is quite active in WI, with more local elected officials than anywhere but CA and PA. The Green convention where Cobb was nominated was in Milwaukee (so he's gotten lots of local press), and some WI delegates changed so that their delegation was unanimous put him over the top on the 2nd ballot.

In other words, I'd expect Cobb to do better here than other swing states - where he doesn't plan to campaign - maybe 2-3%, higher if it looks like the state is defintiely swinging one way or the other.

Posted by: Green in Brooklyn at July 9, 2004 03:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment