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Monday, July 19, 2004

ARG: Kerry Up in FL & WI

Posted by DavidNYC

Florida (likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 49 (48)
Bush: 45 (46)
Undecided: 6 (unavail.)
(MoE: ��4%)

Bush's favorability: 44-46. Kerry: 51-44. I have to say, it looks like Bush has done a pretty good job driving up Kerry's unfaves here, given that down in Florida six months ago, he was probably just some little-known Senator. On the flip-side, if we pick up Florida, Bush would still lose even if he won Oregon and Wisconsin. (I can't imagine him winning PA if we win FL.)

Wisconsin (likely voters):

Kerry: 49
Bush: 44
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

ARG doesn't bother to archive their old poll results, so I'm unable to find directly comparable trendlines. With Nader included, Kerry leads 48-42, with Ralph at 4. In March, Kerry led 46-43-4. Bush led among independents in March, 43-42, but now Kerry has a 45-39 advantage. Bush's favorability is at 47-46 (54% unfavorable in March), while Kerry is at 51-43 (43-26 in March). And for kicks: St. Ralph has a 70% unfave rating.

It's a bit hard to keep up with what has now become a weekly flood of polls, especially when you go away for the weekend. Taegan Goddard has helpfully posted links to several new ones here. And also via Taegan, a bit of rather good news that adds further confirmation to some legit CW: A Republican polling outfit released a memo predicting that undecided voters will break for Kerry.

Posted at 02:04 AM in Florida, Wisconsin | Technorati


You are welcome to visit www.race2004.net and look at/grab the latest polls on there as well. The site tracks statewide polling data, and I glean a lot of sources multiple times per day. (Comes from not having much of a life, really).

I tend to not use polls until I find a link to an official source for them (ie; another polling website doesn't count. I wanna see a newspaper report it), so occcasionally I get scooped. That usually doesn't last for more than a day or so, so you can usually find a very current set of polls on there.

Posted by: Stephen at July 19, 2004 07:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The FL Poll now mirrors the 2000 poll when Gore was leading in FL by small margin 2-3 points then Gore screwed up in the debates. I would watch FL numbers after the debates.

Posted by: ben at July 19, 2004 11:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I check ARG polling history at the RCP site as well. You have to labor through it by state, but at least it's available.

As far as the debates this year, I fully expect the Democratic ticket to stomp all over the repugs. A bigger concern with Florida for me is the latest voter purging fiasco that was uncovered on 07/01/04.

I took a good look at Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania yesterday on my "musings". It's all speculation of course (what isn't), but I think that it's in line.

Posted by: Chuck at July 19, 2004 11:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

ARG's last poll in Wisconsin (that I'm aware of) was in March:

- ARG 3/25 K46-B43-N4 moe4

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 19, 2004 12:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry is going to win FL. I'm pretty confident about that now. PA looks like it's breaking towards Kerry also. WI is all over the place in the polls, who knows where it will wind up. Bush could take WI. But, it doesn't matter, if Kerry wins PA and FL, the election is his. :-)

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Posted by: logos at November 3, 2004 11:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment