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Sunday, June 20, 2004

Narrow Bush Lead in AZ

Posted by DavidNYC

New poll from the Arizona Republic (no trendlines):

Kerry: 41
Bush: 44
Nader: 2
Other: 2
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ��4%)

Republicans outnumber Democrats in voter registration in AZ (PDF) 40.5% to 35.5%, so these are good numbers for Kerry. What's more, JFK leads Dubya by a pretty impressive 45-28 among independents, who appear to comprise about 23% of the electorate. (I'm assuming that's what the "Other" category means.) The percentage of Democrats and independents in AZ is growing, while the percentage of Republicans is shrinking, so I like these numbers.

Arizona itself is also incredibly fast-growing - the state gained two EVs (in other words, two seats in Congress) since the last election, giving it 10 now. While I'd consider this pretty unlikely, the Gore states plus AZ would give us exactly 270.

(Thanks to Coldblue Steele.)

Posted at 08:35 PM in Arizona | Technorati


And if Dick Morris (blech) is right that undecideds break for the challenger 85% of the time, then it looks like Bush is severely in trouble here, no?

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 20, 2004 08:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, I agree. If 4/5th of the 11% undecideds vote for the challenger (Kerry), then it won't even be close in Arizona. This is the 3rd poll showing AZ this close, so I guess it really is.

I have a friend in AZ, I'll post any updates he passes along about what's going on on the ground there.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 21, 2004 08:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Great, thanks.

Posted by: DavidNYC at June 21, 2004 01:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Not for nothin', but I note that at about this point in 2000 Bush was polling 14 points (give or take) ahead of Gore.

Behavior Research Center "Rocky Mountain Poll"
June 30-July 1, 2000.
Bush 43%
Gore 29%

Arizona State University/KAET-TV Poll
May 2000
Bush 45%
Gore 31%

Of course, Bush ended up carrying AZ by 6 percentage points, which is still a pretty comfy win but that's a pretty hefty move between early summer and the time the election rolled around. I find it very interesting to see AZ polling this close, this early in the year. I'm tempted to say a Republican would have to have screwed up pretty badly for a Democrat to be looking this good there at this point, but I also know there have been some fairly significant demographic shifts in AZ over the past 4 years. So I suspect it's a little of both.

BTW, also at about this point in point in 2000, Bush was polling as much as 7 - 12 points ahead of Gore in Michigan (where Gore won by a solid 5 points). There were a couple of polls that showed them essentially tied by summer, but I haven't see a single one taken from January through July that put Gore on top. I also note that the Mitchell Research and Epic/MRA polls from 2000 seem particularly biased toward Bush in retrospect, even compared to a Fox News poll from that period.

Posted by: Cal D at June 23, 2004 09:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I agree. Kerry is sitting very pretty in the polls at this juncture. His staff must be very happy with his current position in the polls. He's within striking distance in many states that should be out of his reach, AZ, VA, and NC come to mind. As the undecideds make up their minds, Kerry might be rolling towards a win in a few months.

Posted by: Rock_nj at June 24, 2004 09:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment