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Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Buncha Polls (FL, CO & Zogby)
Posted by DavidNYCI've been behind on posting about a few recent polls, so here's an all-at-once glance:
Colorado - Mason-Dixon (no trendlines):
Kerry: 43
Bush: 48
Nader: 3
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ��3.5%)
Bush's favorability at 47-39; job approval at exactly 50-50. Don't forget that Colorado might wind up splitting its EVs this year. If so, polls like this are great news for us.
Florida - Quinnipiac (no trendlines):
Kerry: 43
Bush: 43
Nader: 5
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��2.8%)
Kerry has a slight lead (46-44) without Nader in the mix. Job approval is 46-52. Favorability is 42-42-15 (the last number is "mixed"). Kerry's split is 30-33-23.
Also, Zogby posted an update to his bi-weekly battleground poll last week. Florida, Nevada, Michigan and West Virginia all moved into Bush's column, while Arkansas and New Mexico came over to Kerry.
And lastly, if you haven't already, you should go read Chris's post over at MyDD about Ralph Nader's failure to get the Green Party nomination. Chris says it's the end of the line for Ralph, because now he's got no ballot lines and virtually no money. I still think a late infusion of GOP cash could turn the tide for Nader, but this is nonetheless a very good development for Kerry.
Posted at 12:34 AM in Colorado, Florida, General | Technorati
Comments
"might wind up splitting its EVs"
Splitting up its electoral votes?
Can someone explain this?
Posted by: Tom at June 30, 2004 11:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Check out this earlier post for more on the subject, Tom. The short version is that Colorado voters may (will?) have the chance to vote on a ballot proposal this fall which will award the states electoral votes on a proportional basis. That is, you win 60% of the state's popular vote, you win 60% of its EVs, rather than the current winner-take-all system.
The ballot proposal would affect this election - so if it wins on election night, then CO will wind up splitting its EVs. It's good news for us only in the very short term, because we aren't especially likely to win overall in CO.
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 30, 2004 11:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have from the start questioned Kerry's plan of not responding to Bush's negative ads. It's obvious that Kerry wanted to let Bush destroy himself then present himself as the other guy.
Bob Shrum is getting richer as the money is pouring in but the guy has never won a national campaign in my life time.
I want to ask the question again. Name 2 red states that Kerry can win plus the gore states.
I don't see it. I think Kerry can get all gore states in the end including WI and NM but I just can't see 2 red states going to Kerry.
Posted by: ben at June 30, 2004 12:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, naturally, I could list a whole bunch of red states that I think might go to Kerry. The whole point of this site is to try to explore in detail which states we think might move from one column to the other, and why. To support your point of view, you'd have to make an argument for each one of those states (conservatively, say, OH, NH, FL, MO, WV).
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 30, 2004 12:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I doubt MO or WV will go to Kerry. But I think OH, FL, and NH will.
I just think the Dems don't have a strategy to overcome the outside St. Louis/KC metro areas. All those small town votes add up. Senator Jim Talent lost metro KC and St. Louis and still edged out Carnahan.
I think Kerry's anti-mining views will kill him with the rank and file Mine Workers. Plus eastern WV panhandle is now full of former residents of Loudoun County, Virginia.
I think the fact that Kerry and Bush are tied in Ohio means that the state will break for Kerry in the end. Bush had a 10 point lead against Gore and he only carried it by 3.5%. Bush can make all the stops in metro Cincinnati he wants, but if he loses the Canton-Massilon area, he's toast.
Posted by: pc at June 30, 2004 08:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment