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Wednesday, June 30, 2004

AZ: Bush Lead Widens in ASU Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

From Arizona State University/KAET-TV (May in parens):

Kerry: 35 (38)
Bush: 47 (43)
Nader: 2 (2)
Undecided: 16 (17)
(MoE: ��4.9%)

Bush's approval numbers improved across the board: Job, economy, terrorism, Iraq. His handling of the economy saw a very big jump, from 41-51 negative to 50-44 positive. I don't know how one month can account for a 16-point swing like that - I mean, it's not as though Arizona added 100,000 new jobs in that time - though perhaps there's something of a Reagan effect here.

As for the top-line horserace numbers, it's pretty striking to see Bush with a 12-point lead, when barely two weeks ago, a rival poll (in the Arizona Republic) showed him with a tiny three-point lead. Go figure.

Posted at 11:20 AM in Arizona | Technorati


One of the things I have noticed in the weeks since the Reagan funeral is an increasing divergence in polling in some states.

I have a spreadsheet with every state poll since mid-feb. I have then been comparing the support for Bush and Kerry against the 2000 numbers. Here is what I get, by month:

Feb (21 State Polls)
Bush -3.3 from 2000
Kerry -.8 from Gore's 2000 number

March (41 State Polls)
Bush -3.0 from 2000
Kerry - 1.2 from Gore's 2000 number

April (35 State Polls)
Bush - 2.7 from 2000
Kerry - 1.5 from Gore's 2000 number

May (73 State Polls)
Bush -4.0 from 2000
Kerry -3.0 from Gore's 2000 number

June (63 State Polls)
Bush -2.7 from 2000
Kerry -2.8 from Gore's 2000 number

June is the first month that shows Bush running closer to his 2000 number than Kerry is to Gore. And Kerry's numbers have clearly declined since Feb - which suggests that the negative ads Bush ran had some impact. Now I still think the fact that Bush is running behind his 2000 number spells big trouble for him, but it is clear that his numbers are up a bit.

More disturbingly, in some polling Bush is at or near 50. Let's take the last 6 polls in Florida:
Bush 43%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%, undecided 9% - 6/23-27, Quinnipiac
Bush 48%, Kerry 38%, Nader 3%, undecided 11% - 6/22-23, Fox News
Bush 46%, Kerry 47%, Nader 2%, Undecided 5% - 6/21-23, ARG
Bush 44%, Kerry 48%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% - 6/17, Rassmussen
Bush 50%, Kerry 46%, Nader 1%, Undecided 3% - 6/10-15, Zogby
Bush 50%, Kerry 43%, Nader 4%, Undecided 3%- 6/11-13, SUSA

Of the last 6 polls, Bush is at 50 in 2, and has a 10 point lead in a third. In the previous 12 polls going back to February, Bush was over 50 in Florida over once, and his lead never exceed 5. There is evidence from these numbers that at the minimum there was some impact from the Reagan funeral in Florida - though you can also argue that since that funeral 3 of 4 of the polls show the race returning to dead even.

What does this all mean?
1. State polling suggests that Bush's negative ads did hurt Kerry in April and May, and that Kerry has not yet recovered.
2. Bush remains in significant trouble - he continues to run about 3 points behind his 2000 number.
3. There is some evidence of a Reagan effect - though this may have diminished.

If you talley up all the state polls since Feb, you get Kerry 284, Bush 254. (Kerry wins Ohio and NH, loses Florida) . If you assume the undecideds break 3 to 1 for Kerry (which they should) and Nader loses about 30% of his vote, you get Kerry 355, Bush 173.

Posted by: Fladem at June 30, 2004 01:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Polls happen. I'll only be worried if another poll comes out with the same result.

Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 30, 2004 01:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As far as AZ goes, you always have to remember that this state is different from the US in general, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and the silent majority in the state are usually characterized as right-leaning moderates. When you have a major threat to the GOP establishment, such as the death of an icon or the very real possibility of Bush losing, you will see the AZ polls jump around. AZ is now a swing state, and is in play, but still has a Republican bias. As for the FL discussion, the person who wrote those remarks is trying to read tea-leaves. Don't do it. FL is darn close, and will be so in Nov. Very few people are going to change their mind, and the ones that count are the ones in the ballot box. So don't sweat it, it is within error 50%-50%.

Posted by: Mark Olsen at June 30, 2004 02:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Fladem - looks from my analysis (http://www.goringe.net/tis/archives/001090.html) as if undecideds break about 3:2 in favour of Kerry rather than 3:1, and that Nader voters, when he is not available, break about 2:1 for Kerry.

Posted by: tis at July 1, 2004 12:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Tis - Interesting analysis. One of the striking things is the extent to which state polling varies in the number of undecided. In general, Zogby and SUSA find very low undecided. Polls by what I think of as regional organizations ( Arizona State and Quinnipiac) tend to show higher undecided.

My estimate for Nader is based on some analysis I did about polls before the 2000 election and the exit polls themselves.

Mark Olsen - I am indeed reading tea leaves. I am a junkie - that's what junkies do. Nevertheless, I do think there was significant change in mid-june in polling in Florida. Will this state be close in the end? Its a separate question which I would tend to answer yes, but I am a bit shellshocked from how we got killed down here in 2002.

Posted by: FLADEM at July 1, 2004 12:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

You should write what is happening now with the vote of 2004. Write which undiecided staes are leaning on kerry or Bush

Posted by: Daysha at October 28, 2004 05:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment