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Friday, May 28, 2004

Quick Poll Roundup: AZ, IA, PA

Posted by DavidNYC

Arizona, ASU/KAET-TV (4/23 - 4/26 in parens):

Kerry: 38 (38)
Bush: 43 (41)
Nader: 2 (3)
Undecided: 17 (18)
(MoE: ��5.1%)

What minor moves there are here are all well within the MoE. However, Bush's overall approval rating stayed the same at 48-47. The last poll on that front was taken all the way back in February, so it seems like all the bad news for the Bushies hasn't hurt him much in this state. The big number of undecideds could wind up tilting our way, though. (CW says that undecideds break for the challenger in the end.)

Iowa, Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (January in parens):

Kerry: 48 (42)
Bush: 43 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

Kerry: 46
Bush: 42
Nader: 3
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��4%)

No trendlines when the poll includes Nader. We should definitely win here.

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac (mid-April in parens):

Kerry: 45 (42)
Bush: 42 (46)
Undecided: 9 (7)

Kerry: 44 (39)
Bush: 41 (45)
Nader: 6 (8)
Undecided: 9 (8)
(MoE: ��3.7%)

Definitely looking a lot better than last time around, but I think we still need to fight hard here.

Posted at 02:05 AM in Arizona, Iowa, Pennsylvania | Technorati


Why all the undecideds in AZ? Do you think it was the poll or something about the state?

Posted by: Carl Ballard at May 28, 2004 08:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pollsters often try very hard to minimize the # of undecideds - they ask for "leaners," etc. because they want the "cleanest" possible data. I think ASU is actually probably being more honest than most pollsters and isn't trying to force people to state a choice. In other words, I think that such a "high" number of undecideds is probably more natural, and it's the polls with low numbers of undecideds we need to be more skeptical of.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 28, 2004 10:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Just pointing you to the Mason-Dixon/Cleveland Plain Dealer Ohio poll, which has Bush 47-Kerry 41-Nader 3 moe2.6. At http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/108590946143841.xml

This put Ohio is doubt again, after back-to-back Kerry leads in the 5/12 ARG (50-42 or 49-42-2) and 5/24 Zogby (49.4-44.8-0.9).

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at May 31, 2004 03:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes, I saw that poll this morning too. Ohio is very much a tossup at this point. Is Mazon/Dixon a conservative outfit? Their polls usually seem to be skewed towards Bush. I'm not sure if that's because they use a different methodology, or if they're polling more conservative voters.

Posted by: Rock_nj at May 31, 2004 08:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment