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Friday, May 28, 2004

Kerry's Ad Buy is Working

Posted by DavidNYC

Chris Bowers, guest-poster around these parts & brain behind the GECC, also has a regular gig over at the great grand-daddy of many liberal blogs, Jerome Armstrong's MyDD. Go read what he has to say about Kerry's big ad buy.

To make a short story even shorter: Kerry's favorable-unfavorable ratings in the 20 battleground states (that includes CO and LA, if you're counting) stood at 36-35 in late April, before his ads went up. By mid-May, according to UPenn's Annenberg poll, that spread jumped to 44-32. (With an MoE of 3%.) Over a similar time period, Bush moved from 48-38 to 44-44. So Kerry goes from +1 to +12, while Bush shrinks from +10 to 0. Wow.

I've long believed that this race would be decided very narrowly. I think I'm coming around to the Bowers view that we might just crush the crap out of these SOBs.

Posted at 01:17 AM in General | Technorati


David, I'd love to believe that we may indeed crush the crap out of the SOBs, but it depends on three things:

1) How well the Republican Convention comes off. A lot of New Yorkers are....disgruntled, with Mr. Bush. He's having it there. It could blow up in his face. On the other hand, he's probably trying to milk the "I am 9/11 God1111!!11!!" and that could work for him. That last part could be undermined by New Yorkers, as well as the second thing...

2) The 9/11 Commission, which comes out in July I believe. Now, the Commission may give favorable reviews of Bush (pfft) but it's EXTREMELY unlikely, and that will help Kerry, especially in New York, which is Bush's Convention.

3) There's an old theory in Politics; When your opponent is killing himself, just sit back, watch, and when he's dazed, finish him off. This Spring, and Summer, have been, and will be, pretty bad for Bush. We need a strong Convention on TV in August (I believe).

Just my three cents.

Posted by: Greg Pratt at May 31, 2004 09:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment