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Monday, April 05, 2004

Kerry Ahead 50-38 in MN

Posted by DavidNYC

I've been fretting a lot about Minnesota, but a new Strib poll shows Kerry with a big lead:

Kerry: 50
Bush: 38
Nader: 2

I realize I haven't been reporting the MOE for most of the polls I've been highlighting, but the Strib article unfortunately doesn't tell us what it is here.

While I'm glad to see numbers like this, this poll does seem to be a bit of an outlier. Rasmussen last had it as Kerry 47, Bush 44. I do like the Strib poll's low Nader number, but it's not comparable with anything in Rasmussen, which only reports "Other" getting 4%.

At the very least, Karl Rove can't be happy with these results. I presume Bush is running ads in Minnesota - can anyone confirm for sure? If so, then it's nice to see that (at least based on one poll), these ads haven't had much of an effect.

(Thanks to jonner.)

Posted at 12:01 PM in Minnesota | Technorati


Yes, Bush is running ads in MN and has been for several weeks.

The Strib poll numbers (based upon likely voters) showed a huge lead for Kerry witn women and a dead heat with men. Kerry also held large leads among those who have high school or equivalent levels of education and among those who have completed college. However, Bush carried the crowd that boasted only some college.

The Strib numbers reflect what I would expect, given my live, albeit limited, observations. I thnk Rasmussen is the outlier. The state has definitely suffered buyers remorse with its recent tilt toward the Republicans. Look for MN to be comfortably back in the Dems column in November.

Posted by: MN Resident at April 5, 2004 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The Strib poll is legit. Strib polls are very accurate. If anything, the Rasmussen is tipped towards Bush.

But if he wants to waste $20 million in Minnesota on ads, he's welcome to do so.

Posted by: Phoenix Woman at April 6, 2004 09:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Even if MN gets closer, the DFL machine in St Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Mining area) usually manages to crank out *just enough* votes to win it at Presidential level.

Posted by: Al at April 7, 2004 03:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeah, Bush is wasting his money here. And you're wasting your time with polls. Polls don't measure anything to any accuracy - except how a certain group of people is feling about a certain issue at a certain time of day. Even without htat "DFL machine" in the Range, Minnesota is a lock for Kerry. Easy. Even with his terrible campaigbn. Hell, we've been sitting around watching terrible Dem Presidential campaigns for years, but we always still vote for them, right? You know why? We take care of it on our own. Screw that national party, half of them aren't real Democrats anyway.

Posted by: Emory Richardson at May 8, 2004 09:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've seen about 45 minutes of TV in the last 12 months and I managed to see a Bush ad-- what does that tell you??
I think support for Kerry (or the ABB support at least) is strong in MN. We had a small taste of Republicans in 2002, electing a republican Gov (Tim Pawlenty) and Senator (Norm Coleman). I think Minnesotans are frustrated with both of these individuals, and that will likely generalize into frustration with the party. This is all of course just observational data, not empirical by any means! A small indicator of MN's non-support for Republicans is the fact that the MN legislature did NOT confirm Pawlenty's choice for an Education Commissioner (Cheri Pearson-Yecke, a total NUT who knows nothing about education! Heh, she thinks bubble tests are the best indicator of success in schools!) Anyway, this has seldom happened in MN's recent history- even with the legislature and governer being of opposing parties. So that's just a sample.

For the record, MN is not usually a swing state... the national attention is quite fun!!

Posted by: TeacherKate at May 26, 2004 12:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment