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Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Kerry Down in PA

Posted by DavidNYC

Just quick hit here (relating to the post immediately below): Kos points to a new F&M poll (PDF) which shows Kerry slipping several point behind Bush in PA. Feb numbers in parens:

Bush: 46 (46)
Kerry: 40 (47)

As always, I simply think we need to get on the airwaves here as elsewhere. So far, word is that the 527s have been doing some good ads on their own. Let's see the Kerry campaign follow suit - especially since Terry Mac's been bragging about the millions that the DNC is supposed to be forking over to Kerry right about now.

P.S. Veteran Kossack RonK has some thoughts on what these ads should look like.

Posted at 08:11 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati


I saw this on the news last night and meant to look for it online today, but alas I forgot until I saw it on Kos's site. btw, this sort of surprises me. I've seen much more Kerry advertising (mostly 527s actually) than Bush advertising.

Posted by: seamus at March 31, 2004 10:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Because I was so panicked when I saw these results yesterday, I actually downloaded the Keystone poll results and did some calculations of my own based on the actual distribution of votes in the 2000 election.

And while it didn't reverse the findings, I recalculated the percentages to 44-41, Bush rather than the 46-40. The key difference was an over-representation of people in the "central" region of PA -- who are much more supportive of Bush (i.e., 30% of those polled v. 25% of those who actually voted in 2000).

Still has me worried, but at least this made me feel like it wasn't as bad as it seemed.

-Paul from Philly

Posted by: Paul L at April 1, 2004 09:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i do not think pennsylvania will be as close as the pundits believe. consider this: bush has been in the state 26 times over the past 4 years and has just made some headway in the polls over the past week. the polls are still within the margin of error. once john kerry and the dems begin campaigning full-force in penn., i believe the numbers will quickly tilt in their favor.

Posted by: canadian4kerry at April 1, 2004 04:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment