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Tuesday, March 30, 2004

Bush Ads Hurting Kerry in Swing States

Posted by DavidNYC

Garance at TAPPED discusses a USA Today article which observes that Kerry's approval rating has dropped dramatically in the 17 battleground states where Bush has started running ads. Garance's most salient point is that "the Bush campaign is working on a long-term project to undermine Kerry that could pay massive dividends later this year by framing Kerry now in such a way that whatever he does come autumn is viewed through the Bush campaign's narrative about him."

In other words, just as Al Gore was branded as a dishonest exaggerator, Kerry will get smeared as a flip-flopping liberal - and, if the image sets in deeply enough with voters, he won't be able to overcome it. This is, in my estimation, the most dangerous thing that can happen to us. The only way to counter this, of course, is to get on the airwaves ourselves. But we can't just play defense: We have to create a counter-narrative about Bush that successfully portrays him as the dishonest, screw-the-little-guy President we know he is. The other day, I commented that it was still early - that it's always early - in politics. But this is one area where it's almost always late. That is to say, you have to start defining yourself from Day One.

Back to the poll results: One frustrating thing is that (at least in the version of the article I could find) they discuss Kerry's approval rating delta (from +28 to -6) in the swing states but don't mention the actual head-to-head (ie, "who would you vote for") for the same group of states. USAT only tells us that Bush leads nationwide, 51-47. Obviously, I'd like to see the swing state breakdown for this question as well. This is an important point because approval ratings, while seemingly meaningful in the abstract, don't matter much as long as people hate the other guy more than they hate you. As long as Bush's approval continues to tank, we can handle the inevitable downturn in our approval rating and still come out ahead in the end.

UPDATE: Billmon delves more deeply into this, in the way only Billmon can.

Posted at 02:34 PM in General | Technorati


The only proven liar in this campaign is John Kerry. On the senate floor he said that the memory of being in cambodia on christmas eve listening to Richard (I am not a crook) Nixon say he wasnt there was and has been proven to be a flat out lie for political gain. We have our liar.

The 225 swiftys all of you on the left call liars have forced Kerry to make corrections in several of the war fantasies (oops sorry) stories that he has been telling during his campaign. Don't blame Bush. Blame your guy for making it the center of his campaign. Blame your guy for not telling the truth. Blame your guy for not signing a release for his military records as Bush has.
If Kerry was such a great soldier why doesnt he open his records for all to see. I know why. There is a 500 pound gorilla in those records. He knows if he opens them he is done. Thats what his refusal to do so tells me and should tell anyone who has the ability to think as an individual. Interesting to hear you on the left whine about the 527s after one ran against you. 65 million spent calling bush a: traitor, liar, facist, racist, and a betrayer of our country (15 million from Geroge Soros alone).

I have one more question. How is it that a party that got Bill Clinton elected insists on attacking Bush's national guard record and is critical of Bush not fighting in vietnam. Bill Clinton had to have a felony warrant for avoiding the draft pardoned by the worst presidant in recent history, Jimmy Carter.

It is fairly obvious that Geroge W. is carrying on his family's value of wanting to serve and improve his country. Your canadate is coming to the pinnacle of his quest for power and prestige not to serve. That is why he caculated and built a war record. I also submit to you that it is proven Kerry applied for a defermant before enlisting to serve and was turned down. What do you have to say about that.

I truly feel sorry that partisans on the left have been given such a weak canadate to support. What this has done is proven your party has no objectivity and no consistent values. Because of this even though I am pro-choice, and pro-stemcell. I and those who think objectivly have only one choice and it is George W. Bush.

Posted by: Patrick at September 10, 2004 11:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment