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Sunday, October 19, 2003

Swing State Map

Posted by DavidNYC

An electoral map highlighting the swing states in the 2004 election. (Produced with Jim Howard's very handy Electoral College Calculator.)

Posted at 11:00 PM in General | Technorati


Without the lay of the candidates, everything is caveat. I think the Libertarian candidate will be at least as strong as the Green candidate in 2004, and probably even a bit stronger-- especially in the area that I think has the most potential for Democratic gains(the SouthWest). I'll assume it's Dean vs Bush, and things are pretty much even going into the election, in a tight contest, where do the Dems make their gains? AZ and NV are 15 electoral votes. Take that away from Bush, and realizing that NH is most likely going with Dean, gives him 19 EV's, enough that Bush would probably have to take away two 2000 Blue states to win. That, with Dean mounting aggresive regional insurgent campaigns in WV & OH, AR & LA, GA & FL, and CO with the other SW states, is what I'd like to see happen. Rove & Co. are going to be doing a similar thing, mostly targeting the upper ME states of WI, MN, PA. That's a general outline, but of course things will differ depending on the actual candidates. I don't think there's any substantive changes that will occur with your map, though I'd probably add in CT with the toss-ups-- Lieberman titled that one in 2000, and it remains quite conservative.

Posted by: J A at October 22, 2003 09:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The only states in play are
Leaning Democrat: Connecticut, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota
Toss-up: West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Delaware
Leaning Republican: Louisiana, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Nevada

This is where the GOP cheating will occur. Florida would be too obvious so look to Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.

Posted by: Veronica at December 30, 2003 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

i currently live in tx. i want to move to an important swing state so my vote for kerry will count. which states will be most important? what are the requirements on registration? how can i help others to do the same?

Posted by: bryan plymale at May 6, 2004 08:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I admire your willingness to do everything in your power for Kerry, but I would say the best thing you can do is help register new voters in swing states. New Mexico (if you live nearby) would be a great choice. Check out the links under "Swing State Activism" in the right-hand column to find ways to get involved with voter registration efforts.

Posted by: DavidNYC at May 6, 2004 01:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

How do you feel about vote trading? I just heard a lecture by a Green activist who claims it can help Dems get rid of Bush while helping Greens get over 5% for next time.
I'm trying to do enough research to explain it as simply as possible for possibly promoting the idea.
I understand that some states Attorneys General have made threats to websites that facilitate, but the ACLU is battling them in court.

Posted by: RandyScott at July 26, 2004 02:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I think NY should go republican

Posted by: bubbles pool at October 31, 2004 10:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment