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Weekly Open Thread: What Contentious Ridings Are You Interested In?

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 4:06 PM EDT


Although you wouldn't know it from Swing State Project (it's a little outside both our coverage area and our expertise), Canada is poised for a national election on Monday night. The last round of polls has hinted at the real possibility of a late surge by the leftish New Democratic Party. Would that actually translate into a plurality in seats in Parliament for the perpetual third wheels? Given the vagaries of the parliamentary system, non-binary parties, and strategic voting, we have no idea, which isn't to say that Canadian prognosticators have much more of an idea either.

When faced with parliamentary elections, SSP's fancies inevitably turn to a slightly different question, though... the system of naming ridings for their cities and/or neighborhoods, rather than just numbering them like we do here. (Case in point: one of the big ridings to watch this cycle is the remarkably cumbersomely-named West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country.) So here's a rainy day activity, one that we also explored a bit during last year's UK elections: suppose we had delightful names for our House constituencies, instead of giving them unimaginative appellations like NY-26. What would they be? You can play the question straight (calling AL-01 Mobile--Prichard, for example), or opt for the silly if you choose. To wit:

AR-01: Oil Trough--Possum Grape
OR-05: Boring--Wankers Corner
PA-16: Blue Ball--Intercourse
WA-06: Sappho--Humptulips
WV-03: Odd--Cucumber--Pie--War

Of course, feel free to discuss actual ongoing U.S. races too, as always.

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Weekly Open Thread: What Contentious Ridings Are You Interested In? | 518 comments
I once was driven through Blue Ball.
It's tiny and in the Amish country.

Now, Sappho, WA?  I so gotta go there someday! lol

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

There are
a lot of possibilities to work with in Amish Country. Intercourse-Paradise? Intercourse-Gap? Intercourse-Mount Joy?
[ Parent ]
MD-06: Accident-Fairplay


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Indiana 09
It probably would be called something like "Bloomington-New Albany."  However, I propose it be named after two of its lesser known cities -- "French Lick-Santa Claus."
dammit


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
For Michigan (played straight)
MI-01 Straits of Mackinac
MI-02 Holland - Muskegon (alternatively Sleeping Bear)
MI-03 Grand Rapids
MI-04 Midland - Grand Traverse
MI-05 Flint - Saginaw
MI-06 Kalamazoo
MI-07 Battle Creek - Jackson
MI-08 Lansing
MI-09 Pontiac - Troy
MI-10 The Thumb
MI-11 Livonia - Novi
MI-12 Warren - Southfield
MI-13 Detroit East
MI-14 Detroit West
MI-15 Ann Arbor - Dearborn


30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
Make MI-15 Inkster-Ypsilanti!
Two of the more interesting municipal names in Michigan.

"I wish I was in Ypsi, Hooray! Hooray!
In Ypsi Land I'll take my stand
to live and die in Ypsi.
Away, away, away down in Ypsi.
Away, away, away down in Ypsi"  

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
IN-09: French Lick--Hogtown--Floyds Knobs


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Your part of the state does have ...
... a whole bunch of small towns that could have been named by Beavis and Butthead!
[ Parent ]
"Huh huh huh... Pilot Knob... uhh huhuhuh."


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Wi-5
Here-Be-Republicans
I've always wanted to do that.... Here are my proposals for OR, WA
A little beyond the humor, I think it would be great to celebrate the heritage associated with each district.

OR-01: Astorian Nike
OR-02: The Pendleton Bend Roundup
OR-03: Portlandia (what else would it be, now that IFC has done that mini-series)
OR-04: Wine, Woods, and Free Willy
OR-05: Boring Haystack Tillamook Cheese

WA-01: Ferries to Microsoft
WA-02: Cascadia to the Coast
WA-03: D.B. Cooper's Oysters
WA-04: Fruit, Wine, and Plutonium
WA-05: The Inland Empire
WA-06: The Olympic Twilight
WA-07: Sleepless in Seattle
WA-08: Twin Peaks (remember the TV show?)
WA-09: In the shadow of Rainier

KY-01: Monkeys Eyebrow--Possum Trot--Scuffletown


20, Democrat, KY-01
I have family that retired in Marshall County
I know of Possum Trot! That's really sad...... No offense!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Haha
Wow, what a small world! No offense taken, lol. I don't know anybody who lives there, although I do know some Marshall County people.

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
fun with the whole state
KY-01: The Land that Barkley Built
KY-02: Lincoln's Log Cabin (and Lots of Gold)
KY-03: Where Horses Race and Cardinals Fly
KY-04: South Cincinnati, Y'all
KY-05: Paddle Faster, I Hear Banjo Music!
KY-06: Big Blue Nation

20, Democrat, KY-01
[ Parent ]
FL-22
We're truly insane.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
NY-14 The Silk Stocking District
This one was easy. It's always been the defacto nickname of the Upper Eastside of Manhattan's congressional seat.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
heh
ND-AL: Zap-Flasher-Gackle
MI-08: Hell

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I've always thought of my dsitrict
As Yorkville-Murray Hill-Astoria. :)
[ Parent ]
Manhattan East Side - Queens Northwest
More European name, also it's not just silk stocking territory (Astoria and LIC as well!)

But gosh that was a "fun" district to canvass in. Walkups + doormen = never a boring moment.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Astoria-Manhattan East

[ Parent ]
saying
"The Honorable Member for Astoria-Manhattan East" is less tongue-tying....
[ Parent ]
Hey!
It's Boring, Oregon! Huzzah!

I guess you'd say I'm from the Tillamook--Beaverton--Willamina riding, and I live in the College Park--St. Charles--Mechanicsville riding.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

CA-25: Zzyzx- Mono


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


NY-13 The Bridge and Tunnel district
or as a nod to Travolta "The Tony Manero district"  or just simply NY-13 Guidoland

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
MT-AL
What's happening there?  Any news?  Is the "I'm running but don't need to raise money yet" lady still the only Dem?
At first I thought that was an attempted district name.
lol
[ Parent ]
Rep. Wilmer is a state legislator, so she didn't want to spend
the session time of the legislature fundraising. Now the leg is out of session, so she's starting to raise.

I don't know what the issue is with that. It's freaking April in the year before the election.

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)

[ Parent ]
CA-09
Better-Blue-Than-Dead
No Harper Majority
As long as Harper is denied a majority government, I'll be content.

I'm also wondering if the NDP surge in Quebec will translate into losses for the Bloc as the polls show.

I'm also watching the elections in the UK on May 5: AV vote, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and local council and mayoral elections.

Vancouver papers are anticipating an NDP surge in BC, too. n/t

[ Parent ]
I'm in the Vancouver 'burbs
The surge is real.  Tomorrow afternoon NDP leader Jack Layton is having a rally in Burnaby, we're expecting a couple thousand.  Make no mistake, the orange tide has cometh, and it shall bring much pain to the Conservatives.
[ Parent ]
The NDP currently has only 1 seat out of 75 in Quebec
but they may win over 50 there alone.  Obviously the Bloc is going to get decimated.

The NDP could very easily land itself as the official opposition if it does as well elsewhere (it is currently the fourth largest party behind the Conservatives, Liberals, and the Bloc).

[ Parent ]
Big unknown: Does Layton have teflon
Until about two days ago, almost all of the attacks were slung between the Conservatives, Liberals, and BQ. The NDP had escaped the attacks nearly unscathed.

In fact, given the vagaries of the 4 or 5 party system, I think the negative attacks between Harper and Iggy especially have rebounded to Layton's benefit.

I'm now convinced that Duceppe's disappointing performance during the debates, along with his hard move towards soverignty, has turned off normal BQ voters. A couple of PQ officials have endorsed Layton as a result.

Now the BQ, Liberals, and Conservatives are concentrating their fire on the NDP. But it's late.

The front pages of the papers, the CBC, and CTV all have Will and Kate on their front pages. The rest of the (Web) front pages are filled with NHL stuff. That should help Layton.

Given the positive nature of the NDP campaign so far, will the attacks make a difference, this late? There's some conflicting evidence that it might have stopped the NDP surge in Quebec, though it could just be the NDP reaching a natural ceiling there.

I'm wondering what happens on May 1. It's MayDay. I don't know how big that is in Canada. If it is big, it adds one more variable to the dynamic, the day before the election.

[ Parent ]
The attacks
The attacks against Layton are the same things he's been accused of for eight years.  It's similar in spirit to the idea of attacking Democrats for raising taxes; it's so overdone and expected that it's not getting any traction.
[ Parent ]
May Day
Not big here. I had to google it to remind myself what it was!
[ Parent ]
The Bloc
Is absolutely finished.  They'll hold onto a few of their fortress ridings, but all the polling indicates that they're going to take the brunt of the losses.  
[ Parent ]
The interesting thing for me
is whether this will be a mortal blow to them or if it's a temporary setback a la the Parti Quebecois in 2007.

Going by that comparison, the last time separatist-leaning Quebec voters broke out of their mold a bit and tried something different (the ADQ), the experience only ended up reminding them why they voted PQ all the time.

I mean, I'm a Liberal, but I would love if any party could get Quebec voting federalist again.  I'm just not sure anyone can really bridge that divide effectively in the long-term.

[ Parent ]
A huge difference between federal & provincal parties in Quebec
I don't necessarily think it is a mortal blow - at the moment, Quebec is "NDP-curious," but the experiment could end by the next elections if they aren't happy with what happens after this one.

The Bloc has, in many ways, been a place for nationalist folks (hard and soft nationalists) of all ideologies (right to left) to park their vote in a federal elections.

Remember that it was Lucien Bouchard - a former Mulroney (Progressive Conservative) cabinet minister who led the creation of the Bloc as a way of advancing Quebec's interests on the federal level (after the anger of the failure of Meech Lake). While Duceppe (an Maoist in his youth) has led the party to a more social democratic orientation, their membership and vote still draws right wing nationalists as well.

In some ways, I'd argue that the NDP surge this election represents a triumph of the social democratic/left tendencies in Quebec society -- but it doesn't fundamentally address a federalist/nationalist split. Indeed, at least 2 of the federal parties (the NDP and the Conservatives) are quite willing to play footsie with "soft" nationalists in order to attract nationalist voters.

Quebecers are extremely sophisticated voters - they understand that sending 50 Bloc MPs to Ottawa was making it impossible for the opposition to remove Harper from office. The Liberals have virtually no support in Quebec outside of English/ethnic Montreal, so the NDP was the only viable opposition party. Layton is connecting with Quebec voters on many fundamental levels - he speaks the best French of any of the Anglo party leaders (with a good Quebec accent, unlike Iggy's Parisian one, and Harper's classroom accent), he expresses values and ideas that are congruent with the way Quebec sees the world, and he comes across as a good guy.

The simple fact remains that about 40% of the population of Quebec wants some form of independence, and another 20% are willing to flirt with it if they feel Quebec isn't being treated well in Confederation. The victory of a federalist party in Quebec during a Canadian election doesn't change that. If Ottawa starts doing things that Quebec doesn't like, the Bloc can come roaring back in the next election.

(At the same time the Bloc is faltering at the federal level, the PQ is far ahead in the polls over Jean Charest's provincial Liberal government - largely over frustration with provincial corruption issues and Charest's budget priorities. And remember, Charest at one point was the leader of the federal Progressive Conservative party - before he became a Quebec Liberal.... If the PQ forms a government, they are committed to holding another referendum on independence.)

But the election of a bunch of NDP MPs (very low estimate would be 25, high end would approach 60, but that seems overly optimistic - my current prediction is 42 of Quebec's 75 seats) would give the party the chance to cement their hold on the Quebec electorate. More importantly, a NDP government might have the opportunity in the long term to help convince Quebecers that their progressive values and concerns can be adequately addressed by the federal government and that there is a permanent place in Canada for Quebec.

Even if they are reduced to a rump caucus of a dozen members, it would be very premature to believe that the Bloc is permanently dead -- they might only be sleeping.

[ Parent ]
Is there any chance the Bloc allies with the NDP?
If they want to remain relevant if they're chopped down to a dozen MPs, that would seem the thing to do, yes? Or would they rather ally with the Conservatives (who might have more motivation to flirt with Quebecois separatism, if the NDP forms a strong electoral base in the province)?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
All their energies will be focused on the next provincial election
The PQ are heavily favored to take over from the provincial Liberals.

In any case, the PQ was fairly successful provincially for about a couple of decades before Bouchard started the BQ. I could see them going back to that. I could see them rationalizing the foray into federal politics as a distraction from their long term goals.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
At the time Bouchard launched the Bloc, a lot of Quebec nationalists (especially progressives) were opposed to it -- they argued that the proper attitude toward federal elections for any separatist would be to boycott them. (In the two decade before the Bloc, voter turnout in Quebec in federal elections was quite low - it also saw the creation of things like the Rhino party, which gave an electoral protest outlet to nationalist voters.

If the Bloc goes down in flames this election, I suspect the immediate result will be a withdrawal from federal politics for most independiste activists, who will go back to focusing solely on winning elections for the PQ and preparing for a referendum. But that doesn't mean that most Quebec voters will boycott future federal elections, simply that they would no longer have a separatist party on the ballot to choose from.  

[ Parent ]
I could envision a Meech Lake II
Nearly a generation has passed. The time may be ripe.
[ Parent ]
Not now
I have a feeling that the upheaval caused by this election and the likely subsequent realignment will prevent any reopening of constitutional issues in the near future. The possible displacement of the Liberals by the NDP as the dominant left of centre party, dramatic decline of the Bloc, and wipeout of the Conservatives in Quebec all mitigate against creating the circumstances necessary for bringing all the federal players to together to tackle these kinds of issues.

I'd also argue that we'll be facing significant changeover in federal leaders in the immediate/medium future. Ignatieff won't be able to stay on as leader if he really leads his party into a sub-20%, 40 or less seat performance. Duceppe may very well lose his own seat, and certainly won't be staying on as Bloc leader after this campaign. And if Harper once more fails to achieve a majority, I don't think he'll be leading the Conservative party much longer -- perhaps another year or two as minority PM, or a more immediate departure if the party actually loses more than 15 or so seats (a distinct possibility given recent poll results...). The parties aren't going to want to initiate these discussions in the midst of leadership campaigns, or while they are trying to introduce new leaders to the public.

Add in leadership changes at the provincial level - in BC, Alberta, probably in Ontario later this year, possible change in Manitoba, election in Newfoundland, a brand new government in place in New Brunswick, and Charest likely to be ousted in Quebec next year in favour of a PQ government who will be actively planning for a referendum.

It seems to me that the contours and leadership in Canadian politics is much too much in flux right to seriously consider opening up a potentially divisive constitutional battle. Things are going to need to settle down a bit before putting those kind of issues on the table - at least one or two more federal elections away.

[ Parent ]
The bloc has died before
and come back to life.  I grew up and lived much of my life within 45 minutes of the Quebec border with Vermont.  The PQ looked dead after '79, and came within a point of winning in '95.

I am not sure if the PQ will ever win the referendum (or neverendum as some Qubecois call it).  A friend who moved from there in the last month tells that the non-anglophone immigrants are very anti-referendum, and as a result she thought the PQ was getting farther away from independence, not closer. Times are certainly very different than in '95, when the Canadian dollar was weak, oil was cheap (and the benefit of staying in a confederation that was oil rich was less obvious) and the Quebec economy was in shambles.

Because of the Liberals strength in Quebec, they were once thought to be the natural governing party in Canada.  I must confess to shock that the NDP might break through there - but the PQ's history is more as a party of the left (not withstanding Bouchard's role in '95). I wonder too if the Conservatives will be able to tie Layton to Bob Rae (who was once Ontario's NDP provincial head)  but I may be showing how long ago I moved to Florida with that comment.

In any event, this looks like a fascinating election.  It almost looks like a replay of Labour's eclipse of the liberals during the 1920's in the UK.  Considering the Alliances decision to side with the Conservatives after the last British Election, it will be interesting to see if they wind up over time moving right.

[ Parent ]
The latest polls
show the surge spilling into Ontario as well.  It looks like a Conservative minority with the NDP as the official opposition.  Late breaking smear stuff on SunTV (our Fox) that in 1996 Layton was getting a massage in a place that police believed was also a bawdy house.  He was never charged and the whole story is sourced to one unnammed police officer.  Seems like desperate stuff to me but it may tarnish Jack's image so it is hard to know what it will mean over this last weekend.
[ Parent ]
Too little
Too late.  It'll stop the surge in it's tracks, but it's too late to make some of the ~30% flip to the Liberals or Conservatives.
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin, Played Straight:
WI-01: Kenoska-Racine-Janesville
WI-02: Madison and More
WI-03: Mississippi River District
WI-04: Milwaukee
WI-05: Waukesha-West Bend
WI-06: Oshkosh-Neenah-Fon du Lac-Sheboygan-Manitowoc
WI-07: Superior-Wausau-Stevens Point
WI-08: Green Bay-Appleton  
NV2:
Good news from the LV Sun: "Sharron Angle to run in special U.S. House election"

Of course, it still depends on whether or not this will be a free for all, but can you say Congresswoman Marshall?

Was there a chance she wouldn't run?
This woman is the gift that keeps on giving.
[ Parent ]
Some Misouri...
MO-4: Tightwad-Climax
MO-7: Purdy-Jane (I can literally hear Billy Long using this in a totally sexist way with his overdone southern drawl)
Maryland, straight up:
1-Cross Bay-Eastern Shore
2-Aberdeen-Dundalk-Timonium
3-Baltimore Northwest & South-Annapolis-Towson
4-Silver Spring-Mitchellville-Oxon Hill
5-College Park-Bowie-Patuxent
6-Panhandle-Frederick-Carroll
7-Baltimore Central-West Columbia-Ellicott City
8-Bethesda-Rockville-Gaithersburg


35, Male, Democrat, MD-8
And a bit more irreverently, and alliteratively:
1-Coastal Chesapeake Crab Chowdown
2-Black & Decker with Sparrows Point Steel, seasoned with Old Bay, for $6.95
3-Orioles, Ravens, and a side of Natty Boh
4-The National Capital Redskins Harbor
5-Students, Suburbs, and Smokes
6-Appalachia Exurbia
7-Ports, Planned Communities, and Police Dramas
8-Cocktails, Commuters, and Cures  

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8
[ Parent ]
Might I propose
MD-8 Tick Tock Liquors
[ Parent ]
How about some music


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
I figured the song of the weekend would be...
Born in the USA
[ Parent ]
lol

[ Parent ]
Massachusetts, straight up
MA-01: Pittsfield-Amherst-Greenfield-Leominster
MA-02: Springfield-Northampton-Blackstone Valley
MA-03: Worcester-Fall River
MA-04: Newton-Brookline-New Bedford
MA-05: Lowell-Lawrence
MA-06: North Shore
MA-07: Framingham-Malden
MA-08: Boston North
MA-09: Boston South-Brockton
MA-10: South Shore-Cape Cod-Islands

We don't really have good town names to work with. MA-01 could be Blandford-Plainfield (it's slightly more exciting than that name would suggest) and MA-10 could have the suggestive Gay Head-Provincetown moniker.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Well, MA-10 WAS represented by Gerry Studds...


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Also, a little more fun
MA-01: Baja Vermont
MA-02: Birthplace of Basketball
MA-03: Hugging Rhode Island
MA-04: Silk Stockings and Seaports
MA-05: Congestion on 495
MA-06: Catch of the Day
MA-07: Shot Heard 'Round the World
MA-08: I Love That Dirty Water
MA-09: Boxers and Bulger (birthplace of Rocky Marciano and Marvin Hagler)
MA-10: We'll Leave a Lighthouse on For You

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I get all of them, except for MA-06 Could you explain that joke?
Also, for some reason, that reminded me of this
[ Parent ]
MA-06 is home to Gloucester and Rockport
Both are big commercial fishing towns, and I think the ship in The Perfect Storm sails from Gloucester. When you have New England clam chowder, it was probably caught in MA-06.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Cool, thanks.

[ Parent ]
Some of these are pretty cumbersome
The Canadian Ridings aren't just town names, so maybe

MA-01: Pioneer Valley and Berkshires
MA-02: Springfield and Blackstone Valley
MA-03: Worchester-East Blackstone
MA-04: Brookline-South Coast
MA-05: Merrimack Valley
MA-06: North Shore

The rest can't be made better.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
To think it was a Canada topic that caused me to delurk
Basically the entire province of Quebec is interesting. There is a good chance the NDP will take ridings that the Liberals held for 120 years (Hull-Aylmer, for instance). They are also poised to make gains across Montreal, Outaouais (a region on the border of Ontario, parts of which are metropolitan Ottawa; includes Gatineau and Hull), and Quebec City (which oddly enough had been the epicenter of Quebec Conservative support starting in 2006).

As for the rest of Canada, the Conservatives should expand further into the suburban Toronto "905 Belt", especially in the city of Brampton. The NDP should hold their own, and may pick off a seat or two in downtown Toronto (most likely Parkdale-High Park, in my opinion).

Atlantic Canada is very much in flux as well, with several pickup opportunities for the NDP in Nova Scotia.

As for the prairies and BC, the Conservatives have kept a high vote there. I imagine that the NDP may be able to take a seat or two in Vancouver, and retain their lone holdout in Edmonton. It will be interesting to see if they can break into Saskatchewan; their best chances to do so (in rough order of likelihood) would be Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River (the northern half of the province, and heavily aboriginal) and Palliser (southwestern Regina and Moose Jaw).

But yeah, I've lurked here for ages, and I'm glad to be a posting member now.

And for 25 Florida Names:
FL-1: Pensacola-Niceville
FL-2: Tallahassee-Panama City-Big Bend
FL-3: Jacksonville Central-St. Johns
FL-4: Jacksonville Outer
FL-5: Nature Coast
FL-6: Gainesville-Ocala
FL-7: First Coast
FL-8: Orlando West
FL-9: Tampa Bay
FL-10: St. Petersburg
FL-11: Tampa
FL-12: Lakeland-Bartow-Plant City
FL-13: Sarasota-Bradenton
FL-14: Ft. Myers-Naples-Port Charlotte
FL-15: Melbourne-Kissimmee-Titusville
FL-16: West Palm Beach-Okeechobee
FL-17: Miami North
FL-18: Miami South-Key West
FL-19: Greenacres-
FL-20: Davie-Aventura
FL-21: Hialeah and Miami Southwest
FL-22: Delray Beach-Boca Raton
FL-23: Ft Lauderdale-Miramar
FL-24: Orlando West and Daytona Beach
FL-25: Tamiami-Homestead
[ Parent ]
In BC
I'd look towards Vancouver Island for any additional NDP pickups.  Van Island North was always a close race, and Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca has the former NDP star candidate running again.  
[ Parent ]
Still hoping British Columbia joins the U.S. at some point
Fifty-Four Forty or Fight!

It's funny, I actually feel as much affinity with British Columbia (and the Yukon Territory) in a lot of ways as I do with the United States beyond the Rocky Mountains, or even beyond Hells Canyon (for the western portion, anyway).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
God Shammgod?
Are you a Providence Friars fan? Or a wacky sports name fan?
[ Parent ]
...
The latter. I'm actually not that much of a sports fan.
[ Parent ]
Pickups in the West (since I know more about that region)
The NDP has an fair chance at picking up Edmonton East or Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, and an outside chance at Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'Apelle, or Saskatoon-Humboldt (where a right-wing independent is running). The Edmonton and Saskatchewan seats would take pretty big swings, but you never know how big the Orange Wave is going to hit. And there is more than a marginal chance that Duceppe will lose his seat.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
If I did this for some of Connecticut, it would sound like England.
CT-05 could be South Britain-Northwest Harwinton-Terryville-Berkshire Estates-Gaylordsville.  Ok, the last part is neither English-sounding nor a town (it's a village in New Milford, which is bad enough), but I had to throw it in there.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
That's true for most of New England
for instance, you could divide RI into Smithfield-Barrington-Bristol-Middletown (RI-01) and Glocester-Warwick-East Greenwich-Exeter-Richmond-Charlestown (RI-02).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NM-2
Truth Or Consequences--Waterloo

Napoleon says this is appropriate.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Mayoral election in Brooklyn Park, MN
My dad's running for mayor to replace Steve Lampi, who died in February. 12 candidates so he could win with 9% of the vote in theory.  
Louisiana
LA-01: The Other Tammany Hall
LA-02: Little France
LA-03: Napoleonville-Houma
LA-04: Nachidotches-Beauregard
LA-05: Olla and Lake Providence
LA-06: Iberville-Feliciana
LA-07: Atchafalaya-Lake Charles

Not very good :(  

LA-03 or LA-07
Which has more of Acadiana, LA-03 or LA-07?  Whichever is more associated could take that name.  Otherwise, pretty good.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
LA-7
All of its parishes are in Acadiana, not all of LA-03s are.
[ Parent ]
So, is this SSP's last weekly open thread before the switch?
Sad.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
AZ
straight up:

1: Flagstaff-Prescott-Window Rock-Safford
2: Glendale-Peoria-Sun City
3: North Phoenix
4: Phoenix
5: Scottsdale-Tempe-Ahwatukee
6: Mesa-Gilbert
7: West Tucson-Yuma
8: East Tucson-Sierra Vista

silly:

1: Show Low-Lukachukai-Teec Nos Pos
2: Surprise-Nothing-Kykotsmovi
3: Carefree-Paradise Valley
4: Sheriff Joe's Theater of the Absurd
5: Tortilla Flat-Sunflower
6: Apache Junction-Superstition-Higley
7: Quartzsite-Why-Three Points-Tumacacori
8: Tombstone-Fry-Pirtleville

The rural districts are much more fun than the urban ones.

41, Ind, CA-05

crap
Didn't see this until now. New name for AZ-8:
Tombstone-Total Wreck

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...


41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
From the same county as Total Wreck
Why, Arizona

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Also fun
[ Parent ]
Don't forget Snowflake in AZ-01
which, oddly, was not named after actual snowflakes but rather the guys who founded it, named Snow and Flake (yes, as in Jeff Flake's ancestor).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
yeah
When I worked there I remember once saying to my boss that it would have been cooler if their names had been Lowe and Ryder.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Mostly agree
Since the ridings sometimes use large neighborhoods in urban areas and regional names in rural areas, most of my differences reflect that interpretation:

1 Flagstaff-Prescott-Mogollon
2 Glendale-Mohave
3 Phoenix North-Paradise Valley (PV referring both to the town and the fact that greater Northeast Phoenix is often referred to as Paradise Valley)
4 Phoenix South-Maryvale
5 Scottsdale-Tempe-Ahwahtukee
6 Mesa-Gilbert
7 Tucson West-Yuma
8 Tucson East-Cochise

And also I laughed out loud at Sheriff Joe's Theater of the Absurd.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
looks good
I hesitated to call AZ4 South Phoenix because at least when I was there that specifically meant the area between I-10 and South Mountain, but the reversed "Phoenix South" works for me. I wanted to put something in AZ1 to signify the Navajo rez even though 4-part names are cumbersome.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Nameless, TN!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
If only it was a little further west
Then TN-08 could be Nameless-Frog Jump.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Daniels signs bill defunding IN Planned Parenthood

Responsible governing at its finest. Speculate away. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
God bless him.....


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
To sign*, rather


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
B-b-but, social issues truce!


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I think he's running for president
As for the "social issues truce", that never meant Gov. Daniels is not a social conservative. He is. And if the legislature passes a bill that panders to social conservatives, he'll sign it. I don't think that was what he meant. He just meant that it's not part of his agenda and if the bus doesn't drive itself, he's not going to go to the trouble of bringing his truck around and towing it. Which is great, as long as Congress and the Supreme Court aren't dominated by conservatives, which they will be in the event of a Daniels presidency.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I never thought that he *wasn't* running....
Actions speak louder than words, and his actions were all strongly suggestive that he was running even though he was acting all coy about it.
[ Parent ]
I think
That this is all good and well for him, but he's still going to have to shake the taxes increases he wanted when he first became governor, as well as his refusing to back right-to-work earlier this year.

They're not millstones like Romneycare, but they're also not going to go away just because he does this to PP.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I think he'll regret this decision...
It helps him in Iowa and South Carolina.  It hurts him in the general.  He's no longer a moderate, and a lot of hay can be made about taking away health care for women.  Daniels probably buys into the lie about PP.  Once the facts come out, it will hurt him with indies.  The GOP has succeeded by staying away form their G.W. Bush past.  If they go running back to it, the suburban voters who didn't like the theocons will run away from them again.
[ Parent ]
It won't hurt Daniels at all because...
...he'll go nowhere in the GOP contests.  He has no charisma; he has no uniquely appealing resume or personal profile; he has no signature issue or basket of issues with which he's identified; he has no name recognition among ordinary caucusgoers and primary voters; he has no geographic advantage to help him in early states; and unlike Pawlenty and Romney, he hasn't accomplished the laying of a foundation over a long time as someone with Daniels' disadvantages must do.

In short, Daniels is nothing more than yet another fantasy candidate for some share of establishmentarians, albeit one who might actually run.  He's yet another Fred Thompson.

Regarding the state PP funding ban itself, for a general election it's only a minor issue useful in microtargeting, but not more than that.  Women already are polarized politically the same as the electorate as a whole, and Planned Parenthood funding, either providing it or banning it, isn't a priority for swing voters.

This sort of issue is useful only if you can identify and microtarget soft Dems, sporadic Dem voters, and independent swing voters who care acutely about these types of issues.  That's a relatively small group.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
yup
Daniels would be a great candidate for the GOP if he had been laying down infrastructure like Pawlenty has been doing. I agree with LordMike that the issue hurts him a lot if he were the nominee, but Daniels waited too long IMO.

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I think you can do more than microtarget this issue...
It's a stark example of Daniels cowing to the religious right, a group that is really despised by swing voters, especially those who live in the suburbs.
[ Parent ]
But it's ordinary cowing, nothing that IDENITIFIES him with the religious right......
If voters don't think Daniels is actually one of them (i.e., one of the religious right), then they won't punish him for cowing to them.

All Republican presidential candidates cow to the religious right, Daniels' signing that PP funding ban bill doesn't make him stand out in that regard.

Again, I'm not saying the attack is useless, but I think pretty clearly it matters only to a small subset of voters.

Think of Bob McDonnell and his reactionary Bible-thumping master's thesis.  It hurt him a little with a small group of voters (including my wife for whom it was the issue that caused her to vote for Deeds), but ultimately swing voters never identified him with the religious right even though he's much more one of them than Daniels ever could be.  And this is in a Virginia that moved from the right back to the center over the previous decade before McDonnell's 2009 win, and at most it's only a teeny tiny bit more conservative than the country as a whole.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Fred Thompson is a great comparison
He's just that. He's the Great White Hope of the Beltway insiders, and he's going to be a total dud as a candidate.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Don't agree at all
It strikes me at this point that the leaders in the polls are the least likely to win.  I will be surprised if Trump, Gingrich or Palin get close to the nomination.

My guess is one of the governor's will win.

[ Parent ]
It very well be one of the Governors, but it won't be Daniels.....
I've said for awhile I thought Pawlenty has a path to victory, and increasingly I think Romney does, even though for months I thought otherwise.

But that doesn't mean just any establishment candidate has a path to victory.  I don't think Daniels does.

Unless their electorate proves so badly fractured that they've got a bunch of people still with a shot at the nomination even after Super Tuesday or whatever equivalent
"primary dump" there is this time, the nominee will be someone who won at least one of the first 4 states.  Daniels is poorly positioned to win any of them.  New Hampshire is his only good shot, but like Pawlenty in Iowa, Daniels has to actually win there or he's toast.  But unlike Pawlenty and Iowa, Daniels has a strong clear frontrunner in New Hampshire he has to depose to win his must-win state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Illinois
IL-01: Bronzeville-Hyde Park-Evergreen Park-Blue Island
IL-02: Jackson Park-East Side-Flossmoor-Chicago Heights
IL-03: Bridgeport-Midway-Riverside-Burbank
IL-04: Wicker Park-Logan Square-Cicero-Pilsen
IL-05: Lincoln Park-Lakeview-Albany Park-Schiller Park
IL-06: Elk Grove-O'Hare-Carol Stream-Wheaton
IL-07: Chinatown-Loop-Humboldt Park-Oak Park
IL-08: Zion-McHenry-Barrington-Schaumburg
IL-09: Rogers Park-Evanston-Des Plaines-Norridge
IL-10: Waukegan-Lake Forest-Arlington Heights-Buffalo Grove
IL-11: Kankakee-Joliet-Bloomington-Normal
IL-12: Cairo-Carbondale-Belleville-Alton
IL-13: Lemont-Orland Park-Bolingbrook-Naperville
IL-14: Aurora-Elgin-Oswego-DeKalb
IL-15: Danville-Champaign-Urbana-Charleston
IL-16: Crystal Lake-Rockford-Freeport-Galena
IL-17: Rock Island-Galesburg-Macomb-Quincy
IL-18: Peoria-Pekin-Jacksonville-Springfield
IL-19: Mount Vernon-Centralia-Collinsville_Edwardsville

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Less city based names
IL-01: Chicago South-Dan Ryan
IL-02: Chicago South-South Shore
IL-03: Chicago West-Midway
IL-04: Chicago West-Pink/Brown Lines
IL-05: Chicago North-Wrigley
IL-06: Chicagoland West-O'Hare
IL-07: Chicago West-Comiskey
IL-08: Chicagoland North-Six Flags
IL-09: Chicago North-North Shore
IL-10: Chicagoland North-John Hughes
IL-11: Chicagoland South-Exurbia
IL-12: St. Louis Suburbs
IL-13: Chicagoland West-The Rich Ones
IL-14: Chicagoland West-Exurbia
IL-15: Education and Agriculture
IL-16: Northern Border
IL-17: Quad Cities and Central
IL-18: Manufacturing Central
IL-19: Ohio River Valley

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My ridingsfied Illinois districts
IL-1: Blue Island-Bronzeville
IL-2: Richton Park-Country Club Hills
IL-3: Palos Heights-Summit
IL-4: Back of the Yards-Bucktown
IL-5: Wrigleyville-Edens
IL-6: Carol Stream-Lombard
IL-7: Loop-Chicago Circle
IL-8: Ringwood-Wadsworth
IL-9: Golf-Park Ridge
IL-10: Buffalo Grove-Deerfield
IL-11: Coal City-Mineral-Limestone
IL-12: Dongola-Mound City
IL-13: Plainfield-Crystal Lawns
IL-14: Sycamore-Sandwich
IL-15: Normal-Oblong
IL-16: Shannon-Elizabeth
IL-17: Industry-Farmington
IL-18: Havana-Athens-Pekin(g)
IL-19: Cairo-New Palestine
[ Parent ]
Gotta say
that's pretty cute.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Normal-Oblong is definitely
my favorite of the bunch.
[ Parent ]
TX-21
Lamar Smith

TX-Comfort-Welfare

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

Millionaire landowner Rehburg: "I'm struggling like everyone else."
...says the man who sued a firefighting company for not putting out a grass fire on his property fast enough.
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Pulling a Duffy, I see.

[ Parent ]
It's the same excuse all rich people made during the recession.
I watch the Real Housewives of __ and those women are always complaining that the recession hit them hard. They couldn't go to St. Barts more the 4 times a year. Or they had to sell one of the multiple homes. Or not buy another Mercedes. It's ridiculous, but they just don't seem to get it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
My wife LOVES those shows! And the thing I've learned is...
...with some exceptions, no matter how much money people make, they commit that income in a way that they're not willing to let go of anything.  Thus, even rich people complain about being "hard hit" by a recession.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Oh man
This has great attack ad potential.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
VA-03: Traffic.
Also works for VA-11.
VA-10 as well n/t


Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
GA-08
Cumslo-Tyty
GA-09
Cumming-Missionary Ridge
[ Parent ]
Maryland Districts
MD-01--Eastern Shore--Mid Anne Arundel
MD-02--Baltimore East--Randallstown
MD-03--Baltimore West--Towson--Annapolis
MD-04--Inner Prince Georges--Olney--Northern Germantown
MD-05--Maryland South--College Park
MD-06--Potomac River
MD-07--Baltimore City--Columbia--Cantonsville
MD-08--Montgomery
1st 10 NorCal districts
CA-01 Redwoods to Sacramento
CA-02 Shasta and Yuba
CA-03 Sacramento suburbs
CA-04 Mother Lode
CA-05 Sacramento
CA-06 North of SF (and my home!)
CA-07 Richmond to Fairfield
CA-08 San Francisco without Sunset
CA-09 Democrats!!!
CA-10 Between the Bay and the Valley

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

TX-13
Canadian-Bacon

:)

Upstate NY, played straight
NY-19: Orange-Putnam
NY-20: Hudson Valley
NY-21: Albany-Schenectady-Troy
NY-22: Ithaca-Binghamton-Catskills
NY-23: North Country-Oswego
NY-24: Utica-Rome-Auburn
NY-25: Syracuse
NY-26: Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston
NY-27: Buffalo-Jamestown
NY-28: Buffalo-Rochester
NY-29: Southern Tier

NY-25 (home), CT-03 (med school), dude, liberal Democrat, long-suffering Mets fan
How 'bout some music to calm the nerves
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
It's an old joke in the area...
but MN-7 should be Fertile-Climax.
...


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
Come on, you didn't even include the biggest city in the district
MN-7:  Moorhead, Twin Valley, Greenbush, Fertile, Climax.
[ Parent ]
If Texas GOPers get what they want
Then Austin would have the weird designations Canadian, British, and Australian constituencies have: Austin East, Austin West, Austin North, Austin Central, etc. I'm sure New York would have something similar as London has, where constituencies take the names of neighborhoods.

But back to my beloved CT, and what would be it's pretty boring names:

CT-01: Hartford
CT-02: Thames-Windham
CT-03: New Haven
CT-04: Fairfield
CT-05: Danbury-Litchfield

While named constituencies are interesting, I always figured we numbered our districts so to achieve some democratic ideal and remove the stench of royal influence. Sort of like how imperial Germany named its war plans (i.e. Schlieffen Plan) while democratic France numbered it's plans (as in the woefully inadequate Plan XVII).

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

I think CT-02 should be
Mohegan-Mashantucket. :)
[ Parent ]
Probably worth mentioning
that Massachusetts names its state legislative districts by which counties they're in. Not quite the same, but they're not simply numbered.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Fun with Virginia (pending redistricting)
1-From the Northern Neck to the Colonial Capital
2-Sailors, Sunbathers, and Surfers
3-Richmond-Norfolk Line Cruises
4-Salt Peanuts, Salt Hams, and Salt Marshes
5-Thomas Jefferson and his Yeoman Farmers
6-Roanoke, Shenandoah, and a Natural Bridge in between
7-Pride in the Past and the Piedmont
8-Welcome to Northern Virginia--or is this Southern DC?
9-Coal, Colleges, and the Cumberlands
10-Apples, Airports, and Apps in development
11-George Washington Slept Here.  Millions Shopped Here.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8
New York State (Straight)
These are named like constituencies would be named in the UK (and ridings in Canada).  Of course, both countries have non-partisan boundary commissions, so they would not the crazy gerrymandering that we have (both racial and political).

NY 1: Suffolk East
NY 2: Suffolk West-Plainview
NY 3: Nassau East
NY 4:Hempstead-Rockville Centre
NY 5: Flushing-Gold Coast
NY 6: Jamaica
NY 7: Woodside, Elmhurst & the East Bronx
NY 8: Manhattan West, Borough Park & Coney Island
NY 9: Sheephead's Bay, Forest Hills, & Kew Gardens
NY 10: Bedford-Styvesant, East New York, & Canarsie
NY 11: Crown Heights-Flatbush
NY 12: Ridgewood, Williamsburg & Sunset Park
NY 13: Staten Island-Bay Ridge
NY 14: Astoria-Manhattan East
NY 15: Harlem
NY 16: South Bronx
NY 17: Hudson Valley-South
NY 18: Westchester
NY 19: Hudson Valley-Mid
NY 20: Hudson Valley-North
NY 21: Capital District
NY 22: Ithaca-Catskills
NY 23: Adirondacks
NY 24: Leatherstocking-Finger Lakes
NY 25: Syracuse-Rochester East
NY 26: Genessee Valley
NY 27: Buffalo South-Jamestown
NY 28: Rochester-Buffalo North
NY 29: Rochester South-Southern Tier

damn you beat me to it
someone do California
[ Parent ]
Here's my best attempt
CA-01: Emerald Coast
CA-02: North Central Valley
CA-03: Alpine-Solano
CA-04: Mining Country
CA-05: Sacramento
CA-06: Wine Country
CA-07: Trans-Bay
CA-08: San Francisco
CA-09: Berkeley-Oakland
CA-10: East Bay-Valley
CA-11: East Bay-San Joaquin
CA-12: San Mateo
CA-13: East Bay-Fremont
CA-14: Silicon Valley
CA-15: San Jose West
CA-16: San Jose East
CA-17: Santa Cruz-Monterey
CA-18: Stockton-Merced-Modesto
CA-19: Turlock-Fresno
CA-20: Fresno-Bakersfield
CA-21: Central Valley-Tulare
CA-22: Bakersfield-Lancaster
CA-23: Central Coast
CA-24: Santa Ynez-Ojai
CA-25: Death Valley-Antelope Valley
CA-26: San Gabriel Valley North
CA-27: San Fernando Valley North
CA-28: San Fernando Valley South
CA-29: Pasadena-Glendale
CA-30: Malibu-Santa Monica-West Hollywood
CA-31: Hollywood-Downtown
CA-32: San Gabriel Valley South
CA-33: Culver City-Ladera Heights
CA-34: Downtown-Chinatown
CA-35: LAX
CA-36: Los Angeles Beach
CA-37: Long Beach
CA-38: Norwalk-Pomona
CA-39: South Gate-La Mirada
CA-40: Fullerton-Orange
CA-41: Desert-Redlands
CA-42: Inland Empire-Brea
CA-43: San Bernardino-Ontario
CA-44: Riverside-San Clemente
CA-45: Palm Springs-Moreno Valley
CA-46: Palos Verdes-Huntington Beach
CA-47: Orange County Central
CA-48: Orange County South
CA-49: Perris-Vista
CA-50: San Diego North
CA-51: Imperial-San Diego South
CA-52: San Diego East
CA-53: San Diego Central

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
So did anybody
else stay up to watch the Royal Wedding?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
Dress
The dress was beautiful. Fergie's daughters should be shot for those atrocious hats.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Whereas Fergie herself should just plain be shot.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
Lovely

[ Parent ]
?
Fergie isn't that bad.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
who is making these hats?
first that bow at the inauguration, probably one or two in between and now this.  where are these hats coming from?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I would say...
A mad hatter?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
British milliner
Most of the hats were designed by British milliner Philip Treacy. I was so shocked to see so many in one place, it felt like an homage to Alexander McQueen.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)
[ Parent ]
Gov. Brewer vetoes TABOR Bill.
Quite unexpected.
http://coloradopols.com/diary/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Amazing what politicians will do to win election...
And the forms they can revert to after winning.

Gov. Jan Brewer a moderate? Who the hell saw that coming?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Well, she is on fiscal issues.
In 2009, she was at an impasse with the legislature because she wanted to raise the sales tax by 1% for only one year to help close the deficit, but the legislature rebuffed her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wasn't she at risk of being teabagged to death before the immigration bill?
Seriously, besides that bill, has she done anything particularly extreme?
[ Parent ]
True.
But then she threw the base the biggest hunk of red meat possible: anti-immigration hysteria

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah, and that was her signature "achievement"
it wasn't like one item on a laundry list of bills she supported. When you think Brewer, you think SB 1070.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
What's amazing is she didn't even do anything to advance the legislation......
She sat on it for several days with no one knowing what she'd do, and then she signed it.  And for that the voters gave her full "credit."

The legislation was conceived and advocated by the GOP legislature, but somehow Brewer became the right-wing shero.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, I almost forgot!
She also claimed that God chose her to lead Arizona. I'm sure that made a few right-wing nutjobs cream their pants.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Arkansas Senate Redistricting Drafts
http://tolbertreport.com/wp-co...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
What do you say to that?
Any good?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Republican districts packed adequately ...
Map was done on the assumption that incumbents would have a lot easier time holding tough seats... if this was the map, we'd probably hold 5/7 open State Senate seats (not bad)...incumbents are however vulnerable should voting patterns catch up to them, and eventually they will be term limited.

In other words, the map appears to have been done exclusively based on 2012.

Much better than any congressional map proposed.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
So, you like it?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
It's the best they could come up with.
Does it assure Democratic victory at all?
No.

Does it assure Democrats won't be below say 15 Senators in 2012?
Probably.

Does it assure that at the end of the decade Democrats don't have 10 Senators? No.

Is it the best map they could have produced, considering the rapid rightward swing of the state?
Definitely.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Rightward swing is on the presidential level
2010 was a terrible year (some places worse than others) and should not be used as a benchmark.

Dems in Arkansas should take a leaf from the WVDP playbook.  They still have a good shot at picking up the pieces and win again (unless the nominee is Huckabee, who will likely have coattails in AR, but I doubt he gets the nomination if he runs).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
I don't deny
that the Dems did badly in 2010 in AR, but if they be proactive (and the AR GOP's chair and the AR SoS remains a joke), then they can be in the position of the KYDP by the end of the decade and not in the position of the LADP.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Right...I agree, and I hope that's the case.
But the KYDP is run rather good. The ARDP basically relied on Republicans not acting like a state party in 2010 to win. That needs to change immediately.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
My home
New York's

NY-01- Smithtown-East End
NY-02- Islip-Huntington
NY-03- Babylon-Oyster Bay
NY-04- Hempstead
NY-05- Flushing-Great Neck
NY-06- Jamaica
NY-07- Jackson Heights, East Bronx
NY-08- Lower Manhattan-Borough Park
NY-09- South Brooklyn-Rockaway-Forest Hills
NY-10- East Brooklyn
NY-11- Flatbush
NY-12-Sunset Park-Williamsburg
NY-13- Staten Island-Bay Ridge
NY-14- Midtown, Astoria
NY-15- Harlem
NY-16- South Bronx
NY-17- Riverdale, Dobbs Ferry, Nyack
NY-18- New Rochelle-White Plains
NY-19- Mid Hudson Valley
NY-20- Glens Falls, Catskills
NY-21- Capital District
NY-22- Ithaca-Binghampton-Poughkepsie
NY-23- North Country
NY-24- Utica, Cortland
NY-25- Syracuse, East Rochester
NY-26- Clarence, Greece
NY-27- Buffalo, Jamestown
NY-28- Niagara Falls-Rochester
NY-29- Canandiagua- Southern Tier  

2012 Races: Democratic Apocalypse
At this point, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the GOP are going to clobber Democrats in the House, Senate, Governorships, and Presidency. GOP +70(The defeats of Buerkle and Farenthold bring that number down to  a net of 68)in the House, +12(A net of 11 with Brown's defeat) in the Senate, +4 in Governors races, and 389-149(54%-43%) Donald Trump/Rick Santorum over Barack Obama/John Kerry. Democrats would be better to nominate a Dan Boren/Gene Taylor ticket as it would do well in the South and hold predominantly Democratic regions.

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
And Heller's seat makes a net of 67


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
Huh? On what basis?
President Obama leads all named R candidates, Ds lead in generic House polls.

What is your evidence?

[ Parent ]
I'm amazed so many of you missed the snark......
If the prediction of Democrats losing 70(!) more House seats (we'd be at 109 total with that) didn't tip you off, the Trump/Santorum GOP ticket prediction should have done so, or at least the prediction that Obama would dump Biden for Kerry as a running mate.

People must be really down about the latest month of polling to be so touchy as to miss obvious snark!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Given the sig line
and the given user's diary history, I don't think he believes it's snark.

Nevertheless, it is as laughable as snark.

[ Parent ]
Remember Mark's dead serious 90+ guaranteed loss in the House?
Including us guaranteed to lose NY-09 (Weiner won by 20), AR-04 (Ross won by 17), CA-18 (Cardoza won by 17), CA-47 (Sanchez won by 14), MA-06 (Tierney won by 13), NY-02 (Israel won by 13), and OR-04 (DeFazio won by 11).

Sometimes what appears to be snark is not actually snark.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Are you serious?
I mean really.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
Now THAT is funny
I mean we're going to get a GOP trifecta, but THAT is funny  
[ Parent ]
John Kerry?
...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
huh?
April Fool's Day was 4 weeks ago.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Is that even possible in this universe?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well, as they say...
Go big or go home.

If it happens, I think we can safely say you were the only one who called it - and declare you the supreme political prognosticator of the century.

Although I'll get this out of the way right now: if Americans ever elect Donald Trump or Rick Santorum on a national ticket, I'm renouncing my citizenship.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
.
If Americans ever elect Trump or Palin I will emigrate to France.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Canada for me
Although hopefully that's happening eventually anyway. My preferred grad school is in Vancouver.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
.
Hmm. My preferred grad school is in D.C.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Also a good choice
Man, do I miss DC.

Which school? My undergrad was American University.  

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
.
GWU. American is good as well. I'll be applying to both. GWU has a Political Management program, which is more practical than simply Political Science.

I'll also be applying to all the Texan state schools with political science programs (which, obviously, does not include UT Austin... they only have Public Administration).


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Good luck wherever you end up
And that's really strange about UT Austin. You'd think the state capital would be a good place for a poli sci program.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
I'm graduating from American next weekend!


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Congrats from a fellow alum! n/t

[ Parent ]
Congrats
Which program?

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
That was my undergrad as well! n/t

[ Parent ]
I'd say anywhere between the 35th and 50th parallels...
On the Pacific Ocean. That's where I want to be. Yessiree.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Clever
Encompassing both Oregon* in the northern parallels and New Zealand in the southern.

(*much of the North American Pacific coast, for that matter.)

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
More similar down here to the Great Northwest than you might think
There's something deeply soothing about temperate rainforests, volcanic soil, soaring mountain ranges, and rocky shorelines. That's home right there.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
I can only imagine
Mmmmmmm... temperate rainforests, soaring mountain ranges, and rocky shorelines. (sigh)

Meanwhile I'm stuck in the suburban wasteland surrounding Detroit.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

[ Parent ]
Ahhh!
Such scenery would be a very nice break from the suburban wasteland around Dallas, where I'm currently stuck.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
England or Germany for me
But in light of polls like the one from Gallup this week showing that 64-65% of voters will not vote for The Donald or the Quitta From Wasilla under any circumstance, I wouldn't hurry to pack my bags.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8
[ Parent ]
Brazil here, with my boyfriend who is from there.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Sadly, getting Japanese citizenship is basically impossible, even if you marry a Japanese person
Canada's too cold for me (I've sworn to myself that I will never live in a place with as shitty weather as Chicago again), so I don't even know where I'd go.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The climate in BC is mild --not much different from WA or OR. n/t

[ Parent ]
Never been to WA or OR
what's the average temperature in January? (rough estimate is fine)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Between 40 and 50 Fahrenheit, generally...
Though it got up to 55 degrees a few times this past winter, and it occasionally drops down into the 30s or even the high 20s (not terribly often).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That's not bad at all.
More or less the same as Kyoto, maybe a bit more variation.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Certainly warmer than anywhere I've ever lived
but then again, I think you have cooler summers as well.
[ Parent ]
That's a positive
The East Coast is super hot and sticky during the summer. When I went to LA last summer, I actually put on a light jacket!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's the temperature
but it will be raining about 29 of those January days...
[ Parent ]
The drizzle's not so bad
I'm happy to take some showers, mist, and fog half the year to have a dry summer. I remember after I moved to Maryland for school, I expressed dismay over how frequently it stormed during the summer. "Isn't summer supposed to be a dry season?" I asked.

They looked at me as if I were from outer space.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I miss the SoCal summers!
Here in Texas it feels like I am on another planet with the frequent storms in the summer.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
?
The weather in Texas varies greatly with region. Austin really doesn't have summer storms, but San Antonio has them in late July and early August. Austin's are primarily in the fall. Houston's are year round. I have no clue about Dallas, though.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
We
do get a fair number of storms in Dallas.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
By a few degrees, yes...
But the real difference-maker is the near-total lack of humidity on the West Coast north of subtropical San Diego and environs. I believe in the expression "at least it's a dry heat!" because the humidity in D.C., after growing up in and around Portland, is just unbearable in July and August.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Same for me in Texas, after growing up in SoCal and living in Arizona.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Well
D.C. was built on a swamp, after all.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05
[ Parent ]
D.C. still IS a swamp...
As far as any of us are concerned.

We certainly seem to get bogged down in it!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Damn, no kidding I just looked that up


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
the oughts
NH-02: VT commuter escaping taxes.
CT-02: bad drivers and entitled kids.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
More like
NH-01: MA commuter who doesn't realized they're paying more in gas to drive their SUV to Boston every day than they'd pay in taxes if they lived closer.
[ Parent ]
CT-04
If you think the kids in CT-02 are entitled, go over to Fairfield County. Still not as bad as Jersey or Long Island though.

All CTers are bad drivers, too.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
I failed the written driving test more than once.
So, ya got me.  

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)
[ Parent ]
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
For real: Boone--Winston-Salen

Not for real:

Tobaccoville--Devotion
Cooleemee--Harmony (it rhymes!)
Meat Camp--Cricket--Toast

MI-08
I live in Michigan's 8th (Lansing - Livingston - North Oakland).  It's one the Republicans stretched from the solidly Democratic and blue Ingham County (Lansing-East Lansing), all threw the exploding western and northern exurbs of Metro Detroit.  It includes Michigan's historic Klan county (Livingston County).

Anyway...MI-08: Hell

That's it.  Hell, Michigan.  Look it up.

25, independent liberal, MI-08

Recall Approved for MI-Gov Snyder
Just a heads up, but the language for a recall of Michigan Governor Rick Snyder was approved, yesterday.  I believe wording was also approved for a state rep or senator, can't remember which.

Anyway, the governor recall won't ultimately go through, but it should help organize Democrats for other races coming up.  You know, build up a few email lists, train new workers, etc...

25, independent liberal, MI-08

Probably the Rep.
for Benton Harbor, the first town to be stripped of its power under the Financial Martial Law bill.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Dirty trick against NDP in progress
Courtesy of a paper that IIRC has a rep somewhere between the New York Post and the National Enquirer

http://www.torontosun.com/2011...

Seems like the Toronto and Montreal papers, as well as CTV's Web site are reporting more fairly on the subject. I see nothing on the front page of the CBC.

Still the question is whether this will slow or even reverse NDP momentum, functionally equivalent to our sort of "November surprise".

If the comments section is anything to go by...
Canadians aren't that stupid.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Meh
Not really a big deal; it happened 15 years ago.

If David Vitter could get reelected in Louisiana, then Layton has nothing to worry about up there, at least as this story goes.

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Its a dud
It's being played a lot, but it's pretty universally thought of as beyond the pale, even for the Conservatives.  Harper won't even touch it, and he's willing to campaign with a candidate endorsed by the financier of the Air India bombing.
[ Parent ]
CO-03: Dinosaur-Rifle.

In-1 name
in-1-the sulpher pits or the pits
Long Riding Names
I always find Canadian Ridings so cumbersome, compared to British constituencies, where the Boundary Commission name much pithier seats.

From my own constituency, Kingston & Surbiton, the next door seat is Richmond Park, named because all of the communities have in common that they border the biggest open space in London.

The sortest constituency name that I can think of is no longer a seat, but was Ince - the shortest now is probably Leigh or something.

Most evocative current constituency is South Holland & the Deepings up in Lincolnshire, but probably my favourite until its boundaries and name changed in 2005 was Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley - sounds beautiful, and demonstatrates that the Scottish Boundary Commission has always been keener on longer seat names!

I meant to include links to those excellent seats' wikipedia pages, but I simply do not have the HTML skills, sorry!

NV-02 special election set for 9/13/11
well this'll be fun


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
So that means our calendar looks like...
5/14: WV-Gov primary (early voting began yesterday, btw)
5/17: CA-36 primary
5/24: NY-26
7/12: CA-36 runoff
9/13: NV-02
10/4: WV-Gov
11/4: General elections in KY, LA, MS, VA, NJ

TBD: Wisconsin recalls

What did I miss?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Louisiana Primary is 10/22, runoff 11/19.

[ Parent ]
KY primaries are 5/17
Some of the downticket primaries could be mildly interesting, and I guess there's a small chance of an upset in the R Gov primary as well.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Oh right, forgot about primaries
5/14: WV-Gov primary
5/17: CA-36 primary
5/17: KY primaries
5/24: NY-26
6/7: NJ primaries (state leg)
7/12: CA-36 runoff
8/2: MS primaries
8/23: VA primaries (state leg)
9/13: NV-02
10/4: WV-Gov
10/22: LA primaries
11/4: General elections in KY, MS, VA, NJ
11/19: LA runoffs

TBD: Wisconsin recalls

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Recalls
It looks as if July 12 will be the date for eight of the Wisconsin Recalls and then a later one for Cowles: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/...
[ Parent ]
The key word here is "probably"
A lot of litigation needs to get sorted out, but it does look like July 12th is the most probable date for most of the recalls at this point.
[ Parent ]
Just a FYI for Canadian Election discussion
I've set up a separate diary on the subject, ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I'll update it if the weather doesn't keep me outside. If James L starts his own diary on the upcoming election, I'll encourage everyone to move the discussion there.

Thanks to a new, recent, 60 day name change
PA-9 (Shuster)

Tyrone-Pom Wonderful Presents: The Greatest Movie Ever Sold

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

Nixon to veto MO Map
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
Thank you Gov. Nixon
It's all the sweeter because it will also piss of Lacy Clay

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Something both parties can agree on
Pissing off Lacy Clay. If it weren't for the VRA, is there any doubt that both sides would have agreed to a bill eliminating him? Of course, the GOP probably would have botched it by getting into petty arguments over MO-02.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I still can't figure out why they botched it with stupid infighting
But they did, and now it'll go to court. Yay for the Dems.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
You bet.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Link within a link
To override the governor, Republicans in the Missouri House will need at least three Democrats to cross over; so far, most of the crossovers have been legislators in Clay's district.

But one of those state House Democrats -- state Rep. Karla May (right), D-St. Louis -- said in an interview today that she won't vote to override the governor should he decide to veto the map. May has voted for various versions of the Republican House map, but was absent for Wednesday's final House vote.

"I'm going to stand with the Democrats,'' said May, adding that she might have stuck with her party earlier if Democrats had acted sooner in circulating alternative maps to the GOP-drawn one approved by the legislature.

May recalled, "We got four Democratic maps on the morning" of the April 22 vote in the House on a now-defunct "compromise'' map crafted by House Republicans. May said she had voted for the GOP version because "it put my (1st) district in a positive position."

But since looking more closely at the Democratic alternatives, May said, "I believe the judges will draw a fairer map."

cite.

I think this one's going to court, folks.  

[ Parent ]
If we're lucky
Getting a court map in MO would be a godsend. Should result in AT LEAST a 2-5-1 map, I would think. Much better than 2-6.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
YES
Great news. Shitty news for the GOP though, who pissed away their votes to override and are now out of time.

What does it take for the courts to step in, does anyone know?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Court map
There's a deadline for the General Assembly to finish a map and if they can't do it then the process gets kicked to a panel of appeals court judges.

FYI on this issue though - there's plenty of time for the GOP to pass a different map. They passed the first map as a House Bill, but there's also a Senate Bill that they could pick up and ram through within a matter of days. In addition, the House has tacked yet another map alternative onto a Senate Bill regarding the powers of the General Assembly, which will send that map into a conference committee very soon. In short, an override is not the only option for finishing a map on time here.  

[ Parent ]
But they need a Nixon sig or override for any of those options, right? Or else...
...it goes to the courts?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Correct
But Nixon's tone makes it sound like he's willing to work with the GOP on this and maybe even call a special session just to hammer out a map.

From my understanding, the GOP have a lot of alternative maps already whipped up. They could literally start bombarding his desk with options. At some point if he keeps vetoing options to force this to the courts, I think it will really backfire on him politically. Let's be honest wiith ourselves: Nixon is only popular in MO because he governs like a moderate Republican. I think a fight with the General Assembly will not play to his advantage, but that's just my opinion.

[ Parent ]
No one cares about redistricting...
It's not something that will help or hurt him...
[ Parent ]
For real
can you imagine average voters who don't spend all their time reading Politico going "I'm not voting for Jay Nixon because of redistricting"?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sounds as if written
from the desk of Republican leadership.  
[ Parent ]
Well
Over 1/3 of self-described conservatives and self-described Republicans approve of Nixon's work as Governor. I would argue that those numbers are that high because Nixon is actually willing to sit down at the table with the GOP to get stuff done. That's great and it bodes well for MO as a whole, but once he takes a hostile stance with the GOP he surely can't expect to maintain such high support. If he keeps governing the way he has the past two years there's no reason why he shouldn't be able to sweep the floor with Kinder in 2012. If he pisses off the sizeable contingent of Repubs who currently support him, he'll only be making life that much harder for himself in a reddening state.
[ Parent ]
heh,
Just be a Republican and he'll win easily!  
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Assembly
Any Wisconsin folks familiar with the dynamics of the 94th Assembly District?  It's the one that was held by Mike Huebsch, now dead of the Wisconsin DOA under Walker, and a long-time Republican seat, but in a somewhat swingy area.  All I know is that there was a set of mailings sent out by the "Jobs First Coalition" (based in Brookfield in good old Waukesha County and linked to former GOP Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen) claiming the Democratic nominee, Steve Doyle, paid his property taxes late, apparently a false accusation;  as well as a TV ad I saw yesterday by the RSLC going after Doyle on what seemed to be the same issue (the TV was muted so I can't saw for sure, but the imagery in the ad seemed to match the subject of the mailings).  The election is this Tuesday.
not head, HEAD
That was supposed to be HEAD of the DOA, not "dead" of the DOA (insert Freudian slip jokes here).
[ Parent ]
I'll have a rundown of Tuesday's specials in that day's Daily Digest
but the 94th is going to be an interesting election. The district went 52-48 for Kloppenburg.
[ Parent ]
Under-the-radar race, but a win would give us some more momentum......
I'm of the mind that we ultimately had plenty to be happy about from the last election, with Abele and some other local Dems winning in what were takeaways from the GOP.  That Kloppenberg lost by a hair in what only weeks before had been a slam dunk for Prosser was good for us, not bad.

A win in this Assembly seat would be another booster shot.  One seat closer to the majority in 2012, and a big symbolic win and successful lab test, albeit without the spotlight on it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The flip side
Is that if we lose, it looks really bad for us, especially considering that Kloppy won this district.
[ Parent ]
I don't think so, that's where "under-the-radar" helps us......
Since there's been little media or activist attention on this race, a defeat doesn't necessarily hurt us at all.  There's no build-up of expectations for this one.  Even I had not realized this seat was up on Tuesday, even though I'm aware Walker tapped a few sitting legislators for appointments and specials would be happening to fill their seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I'm surprised that there hasn't been an effort...
...to regain these seats.  
[ Parent ]
THere has been some
It's just that everyone's focused on the State Senate right now. The Republicans have a big enough Assembly advantage that any marginal gains before they're all up in November 2012 won't make a huge difference, practically speaking.
[ Parent ]
A sufficient local effort is enough......
We don't need statewide attention and effort to win this.  Most special elections get virtually no attention, and we win our fair share of them.

So I just hope our candidate and other folks on Team Blue in that district have been doing what they need to do.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I haven't heard a whole lot about what's been going on there
but from the bit that I have, people seem to be pretty fired up. This is in Kapanke's district, so there's a lot going on there.

Also, for special election nerds, there's likely to be at least one (Shilling, right next door in the 93rd) and as many as a half a dozen special elections after the recalls, depending on what happens. Although a lot of them won't be particularly competitive.

[ Parent ]
erm, 95th

[ Parent ]
Good enough for me, as long as the locals are fired up, that's what it takes to win. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
My state of North Carolina
NC-01: Grabtown-Sunnyside
NC-02: Micro-Colon
NC-03: Mamie-Lola
NC-04: Bahama-Efland
NC-05: Bottom-Boomer
NC-06: Climax-High Point
NC-07: Tobermory-Watha
NC-08: Pee Dee-Cognac
NC-09: Waxhaw-Marvin
NC-10: Cranberry-Baton
NC-11: Scaly-Joe
NC-12: Churchland-Mount Ulla
NC-13: Lizard Lick-Frogsboro
That NC-06 name is great


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
NJ
NJ-01: Camden
NJ-02: Atlantic City-Cape May-Pine Barrens
NJ-03: Burlington-Ocean
NJ-04: Hamilton-Monmouth
NJ-05: Bergen-Sussex-Warren
NJ-06: Edison-New Brunswick-Long Branch
NJ-07: Scotch Plains-Central
NJ-08: Passaic-Paterson
NJ-09: Hudson-Bergen
NJ-10: Newark-Elizabeth
NJ-11: Morristown-North Jersey
NJ-12: Trenton-Princeton
NJ-13: West New York-Jersey City-Rahway

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
AV and FPTP as described by cats


Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Oh wow, that referendum's in 5 days?
Didn't realize that. Of course, I'm not a Brit, but still...
[ Parent ]
That is incredible -- thanks for sharing!


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Can this please be the video for an open thread or something!


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1
[ Parent ]
Epic
win right there!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Weird
I had a dream about cats just last night...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
that is awesome n/t

[ Parent ]
Former U.S. rep Robert Duncan has died
He served five terms from the 60s to the 80s, before being primaried by Ron Wyden. He also had a couple runs for Senate.

http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

May he rest in peace.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Compact Mississippi 2-2 map?

This is what I think it would look like if the Dems were, in some fantasy world, to draw two districts for themselves. I realize it's probably retrogression, but if nothing else as a hail mary. Green district is 48.2 white and 48.0 black total, 51.1 white and 45.4 black VAP. Purple is 46.4 white and 49.0 black total, 49.8 white and 46.1 black VAP. Both districts would definitely be dominated by blacks in the Dem primary. The biggest problem I see is that a Republican might win in the general, especially in a bad year. In a presidential year, though, if the Dem got 10% of the white vote and 97% of the black vote (basically what Obama got), they should get around 53% of the vote, since Obama got 43% and these districts are about 10% more black than MS as a whole.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Thoughts
Is there any reasonably compact way to make the amended 1st and 4th even whiter?  If you have areas in either that are say 60/40 White/AA, are there 70/30 White/AA areas in the other two? In other words, what if we take this map and instead of making the two Dem districts take in more AA dominated areas, can it loose heavily white ones for less white ones?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I bet those are still purple seats......
I bet over time the white vote, unless it's composition dramatically changes from in-migration for which there currently appears no prospect, will become as one-sidedly GOP in U.S. House races as in Presidential elections.  That means it would be only slightly more open to Democrats than black voters are to Republicans, and lower black turnout, especially in midterms, would make both seats purple tossups for the whole decade, barring there being a popular incumbent.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Good thing I thought up these names a year ago for California!
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

01 - North Coast
02 - Northern Sacramento Valley
03 - Sacramento suburbs
04 - Northern Mountain
05 - Sacramento
06 - Marin-Sonoma
07 - Richmond-Concord-Vallejo
08 - San Francisco
09 - Berkeley-Oakland
10 - Fairfield-Walnut Creek-Livermore
11 - Lodi-San Ramon-Pleasanton
12 - San Mateo-South San Francisco
13 - Fremont
14 - Redwood City-Palo Alto
15 - Silicon Valley
16 - San Jose
17 - Santa Cruz-Monterey
18 - Stockton-Modesto-Merced
19 - Yosemite
20 - Fresno
21 - Tulare
22 - Bakersfield
23 - Southern Central Coast
24 - Inland Southern Central Coast
25 - High Desert
26 - Arcadia-Glendora-Rancho Cucamonga
27 - West San Fernando Valley
28 - East San Fernando Valley
29 - Burbank-Glendale-Pasadena
30 - West Side L.A.
31 - Hollywood
32 - Baldwin Park-Covina
33 - Culver City
34 - Downtown L.A.
35 - South Central L.A.
36 - Beach Cities
37 - Carson-Long Beach
38 - Pomona-East L.A.
39 - South Gate-Cerritos
40 - Cypress-Fullerton-Orange
41 - Northern Inland Empire
42 - Western Inland Empire
43 - Fontana-San Bernardino
44 - Corona-Riverside
45 - Most of Riverside County
46 - Palos Verdes-Huntington Beach-Costa Mesa
47 - Anaheim-Garden Grove-Santa Ana
48 - Newport Beach-Irvine-Laguna Beach
49 - Temecula-Oceanside
50 - San Diego North Coast
51 - Imperial County-Chula Vista
52 - Poway-Santee-El Cajon
53 - San Diego

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

Jerry Brown undergoes surgery to remove a tumor from his nose
Doesn't sound like it's anything too serious, but he'll need to rest for a bit. Get well soon, governor!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Get well soon!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Louisiana
LA-01: Pontchartrain
LA-02: Bienville
LA-03: Atchafalaya
LA-04: Natchitoches
LA-05: Tallulah (Just because its fun to say)
LA-06: Florida or Feliciana
LA-07: Acadiana
Hoosier Republican compares primary opponent to Gaddafi, Mubarak, Hussein...and Rod Blagojevich
This guy must REALLY want to be mayor of Carmel.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
Wow -- that's over the line, even by Republican standards
Pretty much no one really likes Jim Brainard, and he's been around forever.  But in a town that reflexively votes for any Republican, no one has really been able to mount a primary challenge.  I have no idea if this guy was within striking distance or not, but I can't believe this type of ad will help him on Tuesday.
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Recalls: GAB gets approval for the July 12th plan
http://www.jsonline.com/news/s...

Note that the approval doesn't necessarily mean that all eight will be on that day, as they could be held up in appeals.

The article also gives some nice flavor on who's thinking of running in some of the races.

MD-5
Hollywood-California.

Moderate Libertarian Republican, MA-8 (college) / MD-7 (hometown)
Too bad Pasadena isn't in the 5th


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Disappointed that Aberdeen is in MD-02
otherwise MD-01 could have been Salisbury-Cambridge-Aberdeen.
[ Parent ]
Minnesota Redistricting
The Republican Legislative redistricting plan is expected to be unveiled Tue afternoon. Of course this is just the first act of a process that will likely end up in the courts but it will be good to get it underway. Interested to see how greedy the Republicans will be in drawing their maps.

 

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Maybe just noise, but daily tracks show Obama bounce......
Gallup has Obama at a break-even 46-46, and Rasmussen has Obama at a positive 50-49.  The latter is striking, they haven't had Obama positive since early March or so.

Both have had an Obama "surge" the past few days.

Sympathy bounce from anti-birther backlash?  Or just noise?  It's worth noting that Gallup and Rasmussen don't move in such close tandem like this very often.

Anyway, it's improved my mood tonight.  Not that I thought Obama was hurting for reelection from the past month's doldrums, but breathing politics day in and day out like I do, it's hard not to let the oscillations affect my mood.

Now a special election win in Wisconsin on Tuesday would make me very happy!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

His approvals will go down again when summer gas prices go up
...and be back up again when they go down and nobody cares about it anymore. It's just the way things work.
[ Parent ]
Hell, spring gas prices still haven't gone down......
I'm guessing it really is an anti-birther bounce, people just disgusted that the hard right detoured the whole country from what most Americans care about, all clearly because the President is black.

There are a significant share of non-partisan voters, and even some partisan GOPers, who are unhappy with Obama's governance but don't like people going after him because he's black.

And this bounce will subside over time.

Unless, of course, Trump keeps himself in the top tier of GOPers in primary polling and keeps opening his big fat mouth.  That's going to hurt the GOP if he stays in the news.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But they still need to answer how Obama got into Harvard!
Clearly, there's something fishy here, and this issue will DESTROY him :P
[ Parent ]
I wonder if Obama will get a ....
... destroying Donald Trump at the WHCD bounce? Not that the Donald was going to run anyway but last night had to finish him off.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
No, too insidery, no voters are aware the WHCD even exists......
The Obama birth certificate release was national news, headline coverage.  So ordinary people were aware of it.

The WHCD is the opposite extreme, about as insidery as you get.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
still hilarious though


22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I don't know about that
WHCD may be insidery, but it was definitely all over the news and teh internets today.  I think most people who would be aware of the birth certificate release would have at least heard about the smackdown from last night.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
I disagree.
I hadn't heard about it until I looked it up in response to your comment.
[ Parent ]
Nah
If anything, I think the birther issue has solely served to hurt Trump, not necessarily bolster Obama. And, as for the dinner, I imagine 99 percent of the country couldn't care less or simply weren't aware of it. I actually didn't even see that much coverage of the event, sans via political sites/programs.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
One of my guilty pleasures...
... is checking the daily Gallop and Rasmussan tracking polls. I know daily movements are mainly just statistical noise but I have to check daily anyway. It really is kind of amazing how little Obama's numbers have moved over the past year and a half.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Right, they are locked in....
And a lot of that is permanent.  I wouldn't expect too much of a bounce out of this.  It will probably be modest, and might not even be long lasting.

Still, it will be a very good tool to bludgeon opponents with next year.  It also gives Obama a much needed lift during these troubling doldrums he's experiencing right now.

[ Parent ]
Gallup is 46-45 today
First positive number in almost a month. Still pre-Bin Laden remember.

http://thequeue.gallup.com/201...

Same deal for Rasmussen which is 49-49. Though I notice for the first time he has HCR repeal below 50 percent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

[ Parent ]
POTUS to make surprise address at 1030
big announcement I guess? caught pretty much everyone by surprise. my guess is it's national security related

22, male, VA-10
tomorrow or a half hour?
10:30 PM tonight would be big news, 10:30 tomorrow wouldn't be as big.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
in 25 minutes
Fox and CNN will carry it

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Capture of Bin Laden?
One can hope...
[ Parent ]
Imagine
Can you imagine the approval boost he would get from that? Easily up to 60-65 percent approval over night.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
It could go higher.
[knock on wood, politically] I think he just secured himself a second term, for better or worse.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
the moment this is confirmed by the president
no matter how happy the republican candidates will be, a collective F-bomb will be dropped simultaneously by every republican presidential candidate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
.
I think this may sway strong Republicans to stay out of the race. Daniels's and Huckabee's decisions will be heavily influenced by this announcement.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I imagine so
and i hope no one is offended that i went to the politics of this, i'm still antsy, waiting for obama to speak, but there is politics here and needs to be considered.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yes.
I get that this is a proud moment for all Americans, and I wouldn't want to take that away from anyone. This goes beyond politics, as it's a great moment for the country. Let me make that clear.

That said, politically, this is a gold mine for Obama. Bigger than that, if possible. It quite literally changes the conversation for some time. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if his approval ratings stay rock solid for months on end, unless unemployment goes up to 30 percent. Hell, it wouldn't surprise me if there's some sort of economic benefit as people, despite their worries, are relieved and just plain happy and start spending.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
This is really great news politically for President Obama
It's really hard to see how he's not reelected after giving the orders for the attack that killed bin Laden apparently without even any collateral damage or U.S. casualties.

And no, it wouldn't surprise me at all if this is enough to scare Huckabee and any other potentially strong Republican off from the race, because it's gonna be really hard to hit the guy who got bin Laden on national security issues, and there is almost certainly going to be an economic benefit from this.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
if romney
or most likely newt dropped out soon, i would not be surprised.  romney might be scared off ala cuomo 1992 (not likely, i know, but i think the possibility rose considerably) and newt has been having trouble raising money, has no natural constituency, is too unpopular to win and know this.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't go that far
It certainly helps his re-election chances, but it by no means seals the deal.
[ Parent ]
Well, let's see.
Here are some thoughts:

1. If the economy stays where it is, he should still be fine. There's a temporary boost, of which there is some in here, and there's the sort of boost that represents a permanent shift. His overall approval rating has wavered between 45 and 50 with slight variations for months on end, but this is the sort of thing that could prevent it from dipping below 50 for a long time.

2. If the economy continues to improve, this only tips the scale in his favor even more.

3. If the economy improves even more than people expect, he's going to win big and take a lot of Democrats along with him.

4. As far as the economy goes, while the first quarter wasn't very good, people expect it to get better (four percent growth, according to some) in future quarters. This is the sort of event that buys him a lot of time, in the sense of keeping his approval rating high until the economy gets better, at which point the economy itself keeps his approval rating high.

5. I think Tyler Cowen's suggestion that this means the Republicans nominate someone more extreme is pretty sharp. Which is, of course, another way of saying Daniels takes a pass and Bachmann gets the nod, or something similar. I don't think it's impossible to attack him on national security, but it becomes harder because I don't see any of the Republicans as being as skilled as Bush when it comes to this stuff nor as adroit as Obama when it comes to deflecting it.

6. If it's not as big as we suspect it might be, perhaps it helps the Republicans. If the focus is on the economy, the Republican candidate can attack him without being accused of, well, anything they might be accused of if they went after him for anything related to this.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
This doesn't lock it up
At roughly the same stage in the 1992 cycle, we had just won the Gulf War. Bush lost because unemployment rose, and Obama could lose if the economy stagnates. The main political effect is to neutralize the foreign policy issue for Republicans. It also reduces the likelihood of another successful terror attack over the longer term, because it will kill al Qaeda's recruiting.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
I probably
went a step too far in saying it secured him a second term, but if nothing else, it helps him if people are looking for a reason to vote for him despite their worries about his leadership on economic matters.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I respectfully disagree
Any sensible Republican will realize Bin Laden won't be on anyone's mind come November, 2012. Barring a spectacular financial recovery or a terrorist attack, the economy shall still rule election day.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
.
Maybe a 10-15 point boost in one night. Over the span of the next week it could go higher than that, but count me skeptical. The opposition to him is so firm that I doubt even this could sway them.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Because, after all, "capture of Osama Bin Laden" has been the #1 issue on most Americans' minds
At the end of the day, the economy rules. Obama might get some sort of bump, albeit a very modest one, out of tonight, but it'll be short-term.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
It won't be a "modest" bump
but I doubt it will carry him to election day.
[ Parent ]
one good thing
is that it will be hard to make this seem like a conspiracy.  some will believe this was planned (as in we had his body for years and were waiting for the right time planned).  if this was in 2012, or 2010 it'd seem like he was playing politics, this is genuine.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
The people who would believe it was a conspiracy would believe that no matter when it happened, assuming Obama was president.
I'd imagine that it's about the same number of people who think Obama was born in Kenya.
[ Parent ]
for many yes
but i think there are some people, who might believe it was a conspiracy if it happened in an election year, but wouldn't think it in an off year.  these are not from the birther subset, but rather suspicious people.  i for one think ken lay might still be alive since one, he died so close to the beginning of his jail sentence and two, if anyone had the connections and resources to fake his death, it was him.  this doesn't mean i'm a paranoid nutbag (i hope :P) but because of the aforementioned points, there is some doubt.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Probably Not
It won't carry him to election day, but it will carry him through the summer by which time gas prices will be falling from their peaks and his approval ratings will increase due to that and a continually recovering economy. This gives him a better baseline to work with.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
that sarcasm fell flat
this is kind of a big deal, he was the mastermind behind the biggest terrorist attack on American soil ever, and it took us ten years to get him. Just because terrorism isn't the #1 issue in America doesn't mean this is a BFD.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
isn't a BFD


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I never said it wasn't
It surely is. But, this isn't going to automatically propel Obama to re-election.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Maybe it will be.
But the difference between most politicians that people are frustrated with and Obama is that people still like Obama personally. They are still holding out hope for him, you could say, and are ready to get behind him, if they have a reason to. And this is just the sort of thing that could give him a big, perhaps a lasting, boost. If the economy continues its slow climb out of a hole, this is the sort of thing that will tip the scale towards Obama in a big way.

It might not secure him a second victory--indeed, that was a bit much on my part. But this will absolutely not hurt, at all, and if it does nothing but give him a boost for a month or two, it's worth quite a bit.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
At the end of the day, Bin Laden's death means:
Oil prices should fall, consumer confidence will increase, and both events will help the economy.
[ Parent ]
OMG
Some are actually speculating that this IS what the announcement is for.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Define "some"
Does it actually mean anyone who would actually know something?
[ Parent ]
No Idea
It was a series of tweets on google's news feed.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I'd take tweets on the google news feed with a serious grain of salt
there's an outside chance that it's someone who knows what they're talking about, but it's probably someone about as informed as us.
[ Parent ]
Probably
I am taking it with a grain of salt, but that grain of salt is heavily contextualized by CNN (which is saying that this announcement will be world changing... literally).  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
.
A White House source has said that it certainly justifies total attention from the nation and that is has nothing to do with Libya.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Bin Laden Dead?
jacksonjk Jill Jackson
by tomscheck
House Intelligence committee aide confirms that Osama Bin Laden is dead. U.S. has the body.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I called it first! n/t
Remember my prediction on that show which shall not be named!
[ Parent ]
Link?


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
maybe they got ghadaffi?
that's the best reason i can think of, short of a scandal he's trying to get ahead of.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Agree, probably National security related.
Maybe they got Gaddafi?

An announcement this late on a Sunday Night makes me nervous.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
one minute
beat me by one minute.  and you didn't include the h :P

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
What is the correct spelling?
I've seen that guy in Libya's name spelled a dozen different ways.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I don't think there is one
since it's a transliteration of an Arabic name.
[ Parent ]
None
There really aren't any correct spellings of anything Arabic when translated into English.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
112 ways to spell it
according to CNN

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Makes me suddenly queasy
I don't like this kind of excitement on a Sunday night . . .
[ Parent ]
Thank you Lord, Bin Laden is dead!!!! 10 long years!


19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
.
DavidCornDC David Corn
Trump demands long-form death certificate. #whstatement


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
What does this have to do with what I stated?!?!?!?!


19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
Chill out
it was a joke.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm not freaking out.
Just cause I put (!) or (?) mark mean's I'm freaking out. I just didn't get why he put that. Didn't really care, but I was just asking a question.  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
generally if it's not a freakout, one mark suffices
js.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Prez will announce it formally soon.
This is friggin unreal!  FINALLY!  **dances**

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Prez will announce it formally soon.
This is friggin unreal!  FINALLY!  **dances**

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Prez will announce it formally soon.
This is friggin unreal!  FINALLY!  **dances**

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
warranted a triple post

[ Parent ]
I'm close to tears.
I remember where I was when we learned of 9/11. I remember never being closer to my neighbors and those in my community when every single house in town had a flag on it, flags which didn't move for as long as I could remember, and how I almost broke down because I was so moved.

Almost ten years later, we finally got the mother fucker. I'm not sure if there is a Hell, but if there is, bin Laden is there. Burn in Hell. BURN. IN. HELL.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
yeah
My wife was dozing off on the couch and she got mad at me for waking her up with shouts of "Yeah!!! That motherfucker is dead!!!" but I didn't care. I had been waiting for this for 10 years.

If there's a hell, Bin Laden is burning in its hottest pit while smelly, sweaty pigs sit on his face 24-7. Good riddance to the most evil man in the world.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Rest in pieces
you fuckhead.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
I can't believe it, he has croaked!
He's no more!  The McGuffin has been captured!  Checkmate!

This is almost surreal.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

Somewhere, Renee Ellmers celebrates that Osama never got to see his "Victory Mosque"
Of course, I'm just kidding, please don't take that as anything but a light-hearted joke.
GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES!
I'm so glad that Osama is dead, and I hope that this moment can bring the American people together.

I miss SSP. Republican, IL-10
I normally don't like celebrating people's deaths
But this is one of the few exceptions. Regardless of the political implications (and there will be many) this is truly a great day for America and the world.

Male, VA-08
First
Gaddafi's son gets killed and now Bin Laden. Someone must be smiling down on us right now. Hopefully NATO kills Gaddafi in the next few days.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
One can only hope for SO much goodnews in 1 week.
Rarely happens anymore!  

19, Male, Conservative, NC-06 (SC-04 college)  
[ Parent ]
I hope NATO kills Col. Qaddafi tomorrow...
And Prime Minister Putin and President Chávez both blubber like infants on national TV about it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
USA! USA! USA!
Lets start the party!  
Hell yes.
Definitely. This is a great moment for our country.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I just wish Barack would do his press conference
i'm getting antsy.  i have some jokes about why it's taking so long, but it might be in poor taste.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Jokes
Do tell.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
obama's taking so long
because he's waiting for his victory boner to stop.

seriously, sorry if this offends.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
...
That isn't even funny. I'm disappointed.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
sorry
can't beat that trump thing i guess.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
well im still lol'ing
15 seconds later, I'm composed.  
[ Parent ]
That's what the podium is for.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Slightly off topic, but
how good do you think the sex between the President and the First Lady will be tonight? It has to be at least as good as it was on election night in 2008.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
did you the see the president's swagger as he left the podium?
it's going to be gooooood.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
He looked like a
mother fucking bad ass to the nth degree.

Also, see these two links:

http://twitter.com/#!/raypride...

http://twitpic.com/4s777w

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
He's been desperately searching for a military victory...
It's been evident since he took office.  He wanted to purge the "weak Democrat" label from the party and has tried very hard to get a big "win" militarily.

Well, he certainly got it today!  No longer can Obama be called soft on terror... never again!

[ Parent ]
That's like something of a David Cronenberg picture
People attaining sexual arousal via death.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Well,
somehow, I don't think that's exactly what's motivating them. The fact that he feels like a fucking bad ass, and rightfully so, is probably...well, you know.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Here's some fitting music:


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
it has to be a little awkward for obama
this is probably the zenith of his presidency.  even if he passes a great new law and unemployment goes to 2.0% this is what people will remember about what he did.  also, i think he earned his peace prize now.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Interesting that
He earns his peace prize by killing someone. I'm not trying to say anything political there, this was definitely a great thing, but it is a little ironic.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
death can be a tool of peace
an ironic tool yes, not always the best, but a tool none the less.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I don't know if I'd go that far,
but it's certainly a defining moment, which is why those who are predicting just a minor bump are probably mistaken. Even if it's meaningless in the grand scheme of things when it comes to foreign policy (and that's probably not the case), it's a huge psychological relief. For the press corps, the three words might have been "Get to work," but for everyone else, they are, "We got him." And while that might mean different things to different people, it means a lot to everyone.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Not the Zenith...
That was in March of 2009.  Obama will never get approval numbers like that again, but this is an important turning point in what had been the nadir of his presidency.

Ironic... I was going to write a diary last week about how the brith certificate thing reminded me about president Clinton "being irrelevant" in the eyes of Newt.  Then, just like now, everything changed the following week for the better.

[ Parent ]
he already won the peace prize, remember?
this is him following through
[ Parent ]
Play us out, Lee Greenwood!

^_^

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Like!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
this may sound weird
but what does this mean for the Canadian election?  it must mean something, right?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Stephen
Harper can't buy those F35's now? Though I'm sure he can still use them to bomb the seals up north ;)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Instinct: it should solidify the peace vote
I assume it's the NDP vote, as Layton has called for withdrawal from Afghanistan.
[ Parent ]
Too late
I thought about that, too. I think it's probably too late. If it had been a week ago, I feel as though Ignatieff could have benefitted, but I just can't see it affecting too many votes with less than ten hours until the polls open.
[ Parent ]
it might help Harper a little
When good things happen, it usually favors the party in power.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
Obama's Face Last Night
Via one of the blogs I follow, check this out:

http://twitter.com/#!/raypride...

http://twitpic.com/4s777w

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

Advice for terrorists
If the President of the United States has a grin this big when someone makes a joke about you, you're probably in deep shit.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Is the picture not loading for anyone else?

[ Parent ]
Same problem
Try this link: http://cosbysweaters.com/2011/...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link
and this is downright hilarious.
[ Parent ]
Wow, watching the massive crowd gathering outside
the White House chanting "USA USA" makes me think this is going to result in a massive boost in Obama's approval.  

Andy Card (ex-Bush staffer) is desperately trying to spin that this is a non-partisan event and all that matters is that Osama was killed.  Nice try.  At least W was classy enough to congratulate Obama on getting OBL.  

This is a major accomplishment for Obama and leaves the GOP with one less thing to try to attack Obama on.  

Did
you see that person holding a "Bush Cheney" sign outside the White House? Wow.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
eh, he deserves some credit
i mean john king was really bashing Bush over this, but still, it's the president's moment.  also, there was a beachball in the crowd and someone in a tree, which was kinda amusing.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No, he doesn't
Instead of finding bin Laden, he diverted the bulk of U.S. military assets in Asia to an unrelated country. When President Obama took office, he removed most of those assets from Iraq and put much of them back into Afghanistan, and halfway through his first term, he had Osama bin Laden's death certificate on his desk.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Would you say
that Obama has "stayed the course" with regards to how Bush approached all of this stuff? A few people have said that in the past, and some said it on television tonight, but I think it's way, way overstated--and that might me being charitable.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I think it's bullshit
It clearly wasn't a priority for President Bush as much as Iraq was, and President Obama specifically mentioned that when he took office, he instructed his national security team to put capturing or killing bin Laden at the top of the list. He put the resources into it, he put the right people on the job (and the Langley/Pentagon/CENTCOM shakeup makes a LOT more sense now), and he got it done.

Bush's strategy failed. Obama's strategy succeeded.

And they said Democrats were weak on defense.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I meant
more with regard to the wars in general. There was certainly a little wishful thinking and denial about what Obama said and did about national security during the campaign on the left, but at the same time, I don't think he's in the same category as Bush (and I am not saying this as a good or bad thing), despite the fact that's upped the ante in Afghanistan, for instance. He did begin removing troops from Iraq, for instance.

My point in bringing this up is to try to think of how most people will react to what happened.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
So far, from what I've seen...
The mainstream view is that President Obama accomplished something major, and that he deserves credit for this. Some people also have noted President Bush's role, which I disagree with, but I think the important thing is that any opinion that doesn't recognize Obama as having done something great for the United States of America and for the world is on the ideological fringe right now, and thus it looks petty.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
My judgement isn't perfect now,
so I will definitely look into this more tomorrow, but some people have said this proves Bush, et al were right when it comes to interrogation. If that's even partly true, then it will definitely be a factor, at least on the left.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I knew that some people would say "zong torture worked" as soon as this news broke
But it has no basis in reality. THe intelligence that led to this attack appears to have had nothing to do with torture.
[ Parent ]
What makes you say that?
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if that was true, but I came across a Michelle Malkin blog post which mentioned it, and I'd need to see a more...credible source before even beginning to form an opinion. It's also still very recent news, and I didn't see any of the usual people I follow bring it up. Tomorrow, I figure I'll see something, but do you have any links for me?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I don't have any links
So maybe it's just my moral bias, but what I gathered from Obama's speech and the CNN coverage was that it the intelligence was gathered from a collection of small on the ground hints, not from one person giving up a boat load of information, which is the sort of intelligence torture would provide if it worked.
[ Parent ]
I hope you are right.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I had to laugh at that sign.
There was also a don't tread on me flag being waved along with lots of US flags.  
[ Parent ]
That's the original meaning of the flag
Long before Sarah Palin and Glen Beck, the Gadsden flag was a symbol of America's toughness and resiliency. It was there for the real Tea Party in 1773, and is still associated with patriotic moments and military victories like tonight's.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I remember wanting one of those...
...for my house after 9/11, although I wanted the naval one with the red and white bars.  I was horrified when that symbol was usurped by the ultra right wingers.  They totally distorted the meaning behind it.
[ Parent ]
Same here
It really struck me when I saw a lonely College Republican on campus waving one outside Comcast Stadium before President Obama gave a speech there, because my first reaction was to recognize and cheer the symbol - and then I realized how perverse it was and how it had been co-opted for something horrible.

To be sure, this republic would have disintegrated in infancy if we had been so vicious as to use symbols like that - symbols of unified resistance against a foreign tyrant - in, say, the 1800 election, or against President Madison during the War of 1812.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
For the record
I've had one hanging on my wall since right after 9/11. People see it now and assume it's a Tea Party flag, and I am more than happy to tell them it is not. If I had a flagpole it would be going up right now.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Romney and Pawlenty also congratulated the president
This will probably keep Huckabee and possibly Gov. Daniels out of the race, and I think it may give Trump an excuse to bow out "gracefully" after his signature issue went up in smoke last week.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Interesting that Romney and Pawlenty were
smart enough to congratulate the President. I agree that this takes Daniels out of the race. I don't think Huckabee was ever going to run.

Gingrich is supposed to officially announce his run this week. I wonder if he still declares.

Wow, they are cheering at Ground Zero too. I am amazed at how emotional OBL's death is. It really seems like closure.

[ Parent ]
i agree on newt
he doesn't have any real advantage aside from being well known (which could be more of a hindrance) and the experience of being speaker from 1995-1999.  he's old hat, has little charisma, bad ideas and no money.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
gingrich will have to delay
He can't announce mere days after this event

22, male, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I bet Daniels still runs
He seems politically savvy enough to realize this hardly bolsters Obama to automatic re-election.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
No reelection not automatic, but you badly understate the political gravity of this......
This is game-changing, not just for a short time.

Marc Ambinder put keyboard to my own thoughts on this on Twitter, saying while a poll bump might be transient, the longer-term effect relevant for 2012 is for national morale, giving people some lasting optimism.

That's the big thing that's dragged down Obama all this time:  national morale.

It doesn't matter that people weren't focused on foreign policy matters before, because they are now.  Killing bin Laden is just huge, a date that will live in history, and Obama benefits for a long time for it.

It's no substitute for an improved economy, but it matters just as much to most Americans now that it's accomplished.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This news plus the offiical end of the Iraq War when
we leave in July + the beginning of the draw down in Afghanistan is going to give Obama some great news to run on in 2012.  
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Ambinder is right (as he usually is), and so are you!

It's a big turning point for the exact reason you stated.  Obama just delivered some hope and change to America.  It is a BFD, and badly needed right now.

[ Parent ]
President Obama will not suffer President Carter's fate
If President Obama loses in '12, it won't be a "malaise," and it's quite a bit less likely to be a foreign policy issue.

Consumer confidence will get a boost. Even if temporary, it's a shot in the arm, like any sort of spending stimulus.

In addition, one of the benchmarks for higher oil prices is now gone. Barring some effective retaliation by Al Qaeda, I think it's likely that we've now seen the peak for gasoline prices through the end of the year.

[ Parent ]
Especially true if Col. Qaddafi shits his pants and backs off
Unlikely, but if I were him right now, I would be absolutely terrified.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
The reports are that he knows he's in trouble...
...and isn't going to get out of this in one piece.  He's trying to find a way out, but no one is letting him.  He knows his days as Libya's leader are numbered.  The question is, whether he can find a way to negotiate for his life or successfully escape.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely.
As you and I both indicated, if gives him a permanent boost. Perhaps it's smaller than some of us here, myself included, imagine it might be, and perhaps something else knocks it down, but it's definitely tipped the scales in his favor just a little.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
What do you
think about Lord Mike's suggestion that he is already in, based on his actions with the abortion bill?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Daniels already crossed the Rubicon...
...with his Planned Parenthood defunding bill signing.  He is already in.  There is no point in turning back now.  Certainly, Huck's going to be thinking twice, though.

As for Trump, he'll probably be in this until the bitter end, I think.

[ Parent ]
Didn't know that about Daniels.
Good point, though.

Still, does this make his attempt to get some attention any more difficult?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
If the GOP base is less virulently anti-Obama
than perhaps they'll be more inclined to chose an "adult" Republican candidate instead of a bomb-thrower. Which would be good for Daniels, Huntsman, and so forth.

There's still many long months and an endless series of debates before the first caucuses. Republican candidates have time to make their case to primary voters, especially when they're desperate for a candidate they can actually like.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
I think this event will make them even more virulently anti-Obama...
This was supposed to be "their" moment, not ours.
[ Parent ]
I think Daniels backs out. He signed the idiotic
PP defunding bill before this news broke. Obama is now untouchable on foreign policy and Daniel is going to have a hard time making credible economic attacks on Obama since he was Bush's OMB director.

Huckabee was never going to run again IMO. He can't raise the money for the race and he needs the Fox gig to pay for his expensive house.

[ Parent ]
I don't think this changes a thing in GOP hopefuls' decision-making except...
...for those who just don't really have the "fire in the belly" as Barbour put it, and this becomes the final blow that decides for them to stay out.

Romney and Pawlenty are running, period.  Daniels, if he had decided to run as of this weekend, will run...unless, again, if his decision was really half-hearted.  I don't have E.S.P. to know that.

What I bet we will see is everyone who hasn't announced delaying their announcements a few weeks.  Those who don't are badly tone deaf.  That would include Gingrich, who yeah is tone deaf and very well could announce with a huge rhetorical tirade against Obama that's clearly out of place to most Americans.  The other crazies are similarly tone deaf, so they, too, might go ahead and do whatever they were going to do anyway.  But none of them had planned an imminent candidacy announcement, so we won't hear that from them this week, just the same weekly vitriol they always spew.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I find it interesting that you classify Gingrich as "tone deaf"
Egotistical? Yes. Unafraid to use some pretty heated rhetoric? Yes. A hypocritical slimeball? you betcha. But he's always struck me as having a decent sense of PR.
[ Parent ]
Usually...
But, with his instinctive reaction to criticize Obama at first sight, he's gotten himself into trouble like with his Libya gaffe.  Newt's hatred of Obama is so intense right now, he's lost a lot of his good sense.
[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced Newt really hates Obama that much personally
he just thinks he can win by pandering to people who do.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, probably right...
But, he's so into it, he forgets where he is sometimes! :-)
[ Parent ]
Interesting idea.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It's basically a corollary of my primary theory on Newt
which holds that all he really cares about is personal power and advancement.
[ Parent ]
His instincts are bad in a lot of ways, and yeah I think tone deafness is among them......
He says the wrong thing at the wrong time.  Not every time, but often enough.  That's been one of his many patterns over a quarter-century.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Your first sentence
is really why some of these guys will not take the plunge, if they do in fact pass on a run: it's not so much that this all but guarantees a victory, but it is certainly an intimidating factor, the sort of thing that would keep people who are sketchy on the side lines. At this point, unless there's a deeper issue relating to something very specific in his personal life, I'm not sure that the "I'm talking it over with my wife" line really flies. It's one thing it's a senate race, where the stakes are a lower. But this is a presidential race, where the commitment is greater. Besides that, what is it that a husband and wife haven't discussed? This goes for Daniels, or for anyone else.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
It is a non-partisan event.
It's something we can all be happy about, despite our political leanings. Of course, it's also helpful to the person in the White House, who in this case happens to be a Democrat. It's not, in other words, a mutually exclusive thing.

By the way, Bush's silence since Obama has been elected makes me think better of him. I still think a lot of bad things about his time in office, but so far, he's handled his post-presidency in a very classy way. I doubt I will ever change my mind about what a failure his tenure was, but I'll give him that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
This is definitely not a non-partisan event.
Bush had seven years to gt OBL and because he and his staff were incompetent they didn't get him. Obama came in and staffed his administration with competent adults they were able to get Osama. It matters who is in charge of our country and this is just one major reason why.
[ Parent ]
My point
was that we can all be happy, regardless of how or why this happened.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
This is definitely more America's moment than Obama's
But it's also Obama's moment a lot more than it is "nonpartisan"

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42
[ Parent ]
Well, whatever.
I think it can be both things at once--both a moment for the president and his party in a political sense, but in a bigger sense a moment for the country, however you want to describe them.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Cheers to the world!

I go to Redstate to see their response
I find that shit fun, for some reason.  They decide to do an open, Osama in Hell, thread.  First comment, now he can join Mohamed in hell.  Damn, they never disappoint!  I had to read it twice to make sure they didn't say Saddam.
[ Parent ]
...
RedState is awful.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
.
RRH has some good comments, on the other hand.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Meanwhile, Free Republic is playing an article
about a suggested nuclear retaliation by Al Qaeda in Europe. If I'm reading the responses correctly, even they aren't giving the thought much play.
[ Parent ]
If Jesse Helms, Fred Phelps, and Ann Coulter
got together to create a web site, Free Republic is what it would look like. It's the ebola of political sites.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Well said.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
i just realized
i read it as saddam too. shudder

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
[ Parent ]
In fairness,
at least a couple people are saying, "Well, let's give Obama credit for this at least."

Personally, I realized around this time in 2008 that Obama was probably a George HW Bush style foreign policy realist, and he hasn't disappointed on that front.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
Justice has finally been done!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
I don't care if Obama is reelected because of this
I'm just glad that Osama Bin Laden is dead and America is less of a joke overseas now.
Generalissimo Francisco Franco gets a challenger in the race to stay dead

I have a hard time celebrating the death of a human being.
He is truly an evil, sadistic person and certainly deserved death; however, the throngs of people shouting and cheering in DC and NYC are a little disturbing.

I definitely see the solemnity of this moment, but that there are celebratory rallies taking place, and composed mostly of young people, is a very unsettling sight.

To get back to the politics of this, I think President Obama just sealed his reelection. The goodwill this generates among Americans could be a huge boost for his reelection.

Two years from now, if gas is still at $4 a gallon and unemployment is over 8%, then I see a rough slog for the President. However, if the economy is creating 200,000+ jobs a month and gas is at $3 instead of $4, I don't see a scenario where President Obama fails to win reelection.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

the 8% mark may not matter too much
economists expect the unemployment to go up as job seekers become more optimistic and start looking for work again.  if the news is 200k+ jobs as you mentioned, the actual percentage probably won't matter too much.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Like you said....
The trend is what matters, not the number...  Reagan got re-elected with pretty bad unemployment numbers, too.  His were better than Obama's, but then again, Obama doesn't need 400+ electoral votes either.
[ Parent ]
I agree
I didn't mean to assert that there is some magic number in regards to unemployment, and I agree with you that 8% is arbitrary.

That being said, this is a HUGE short-term boost for the President. The medium-term effect on his reelection chances cannot be quantified. Obviously, this is a boost to his chances.

The point I was trying to articulate (unsuccessfully) was that barring some massive scandal/disaster, the 2012 elections will focus on the economy. Whether that fight becomes about the success story of economic growth between 2010-2012 or the failure of the recovery, that will most likely decide if Obama wins a second term.

As someone else pointed out, President Obama seems to be the anti-Carter on foreign policy. The President's successes abroad continue, and if he can execute a satisfactory withdraw from Iraq, then any talk in 2012 about foreign policy would only serve to help him.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

[ Parent ]
Meh
Me, I'm ecstatic. I'd set off fireworks in Eden Park if I had any.

Maybe I'm just a worse person than you. I don't support the death penalty under any circumstances, but the guy wouldn't be taken alive, and the world is a better place with him gone from it.

Good riddance.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
No, not a worse person
I don't think my reluctance to celebrate death makes me a better person than anyone. No, definitely not, surely I am no better a person than you are.

For some reason, the image of all those college students in Phoenix cheering during the Tucson memorial service came to mind. I guess I made that jump because of how awkward I thought that scene was and how peculiar I thought such celebration could occur at such a somber event. I was in tears the entire time, the only happiness I felt was at the news that Congresswoman Giffords had awoken from her coma.

Let me be clear, I understand why they are cheering his death, and I do not fault them for it. We as Americans have every right to cheer the death of a mass murderer, one who targeted innocents in this country and countless more around the world. I just hope that we as Americans don't make it a habit of celebrating the death of another human being, even one as inherently evil as bin Laden.

I'm ok with celebrating the death of this mass murder, I jam just wary at the thought of many other celebrations of death in the future.

I know that some of that is poorly worded. Forgive me,  I've been up all night so my brain isn't quite functioning properly, but I hope the overall point is at least somewhat evident.

21, male,TX-08 (home), LA-06 (college, voting)

[ Parent ]
anyone else think
there will be a mini baby boom come 9 months from now?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
will this boost bolton or santorum
as arguably the only candidates with foreign policy experience?  santorum's argument is weak, but he can argue his two senate terms prepared him more than pawlenty's 20 years in minnesota politics or romney's 4 years as governor.    

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
This event won't boost shit for those losers...
They just got schooled by Obama.  What the hell do they have to offer now?  Nothing.  Nada.
[ Parent ]
to indies and dems nothing
but to the almost half of the party who thought and probably still think obama is a kenyan it might be something.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No
Foreign policy just got taken off the table, at least for the foreseeable future. You don't hit the guy who ordered a successful operation to take out bin Laden on foreign policy. It makes Bolton look very unattractive, because so far, his argument has been, "Barack Obama is weak on national security, and I'm the guy who can make the terrorists cry 'uncle'." Well, President Obama isn't weak on national security, and now Bolton looks like a partisan douchebag.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
John Bolton has about as much chance of becoming president as a ham sandwitch
the man has no charisma, and has never been more than a neocon insider fantasy pick.
[ Parent ]
anyone have friends who are blase about bin laden's death?
I've spoken with two people who are "meh" or "oh okay" when i told them about it.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
.
My best friend was sad... I'm not sure why, but I think she wanted him alive and tortured.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
I know a couple people whose first reaction was basically...
"That's fine, can we stop the war now?"

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
That is actually the first thing I said when I heard.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
My dearly departed Nancy would have hated it
I'm keeping my reactions solely to the politics, out of respect for her.

I still remember crying loudly on an airplane, as I carried her ashes across the country, five months after 9/11 -- when a flight attendant described how she wanted him to be tortured physically.

[ Parent ]
I'm so sorry, tietack.


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Well, to be fair
Al Queda was much bigger than Bin Laden.  His death probably changes very little for the organization, which is designed to have distributed leadership.  Yes, Osama's death is great symbol, but not much more than a symbol.  Al Queda will still go on without him, and may even get stronger.

So, while I was excited at the news, it was tempered by the reality that we haven't really won anything more than a symbolic victory.

But, what a symbol, eh?  It certainly is a BFD.  Still, we should not lose sight of the bigger picture in the war on terror.

Politically, of course, it's massive and I'm beyond thrilled about it!  

[ Parent ]
Meh was basically my reaction
When I heard last night.I think it was mostly because I had given him up for dead for awhile, Plus he seemed barely relevant anymore.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
Cilizzia on the political effects
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

The Gulf War I comparison is apt. Everyone thought GHW Bush would be a shoe-in for re-election after we threw Saddam out of Kuwait.

If Obama's lucky, this will help the economy recover.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

I think this pretty much hits the nail on the head.
It'll help, but it ultimately comes down to the economy.
[ Parent ]
This is a bigger deal than what H.W. did......
Killing bin Laden heals a wound that's very personal to Americans, a wound inflicted on America.  It avenges one of the gravest wrongs done to the country.

The Persian Gulf War was a great victory for Bush, but simply never had the same emotional import to the country.  Saddam attacked Kuwait, not us.  That's why it couldn't possibly have the same impact in 1992, it stopped being important to most voters.

Compare instead to Dubya '04:  the 9/11 attacks were so deeply wounding that he got reelected in spite of Iraq having been a disaster already going into that election.

No this doesn't guarantee Obama's reelection, but it permanently improves his odds.  This accomplishment will never not be important to most voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yes
You nailed it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
This is so much bigger than that though
Saddam was a despot and a tyrant, and President Bush indeed benefited from prosecuting the Gulf War successfully - but he didn't pursue him into Iraq, which opened him up to criticism from the right flank, and he hadn't directly attacked the U.S., which opened him up to criticism from the left flank.

Osama bin Laden gave the orders that led to the largest number of U.S. dead on a single day since at least Vietnam if not World War II or even the American Civil War - and the largest foreign attack on U.S. soil by any measure. And President Obama had him captured (dead) in a meticulously planned operation without losing a soldier.

This is much bigger than besting Saddam.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
No one should expect Obama to be a shoe in...
But, with the nations mood in a great malaise, it gives Obama a huge boost in political capital that he needs now more than ever with these budget battles.
[ Parent ]
i disagree
while the similarities are there, the first gulf war was a shorter war, lasting about 6 months and cost only $60 billion.  the only advantage of the gulf war over the war we're in now is that there were fewer casualties. whatever war we're in now has ended thousands of lives, has cost about $1-$2 trillon, and involves a villain America hates on a level far greater than we ever hated saddam.  if anything, a quick kill of ghadaffi would have been like desert storm, not this.  

I remember an old doonesbury from around 1992 where B.D. was talking about the war and someone said "what war" then it switched to the whitehouse where H.W. thought "uh-oh."  no one is going to say "bin laden who?" in 2012.  catching bin laden was a climax after ten years of varying levels tension (not that the war or whatever we're in is over of course) whereas desert storm was a deadly and costly war, but was quick compared to the last ten years.  two unfortunate and deadly conflicts that are very different.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Good points
I would be wrong to underestimate the enmity the US has for Bin Laden. Seeing the spontaneous celebrations in D.C. and New York is pretty compelling.

Still, I think if Obama wins (which is quite likely), it will be much more because of the pre-existing fundamentals than this victory.

Regardless of the political effects, I'm absolutely thrilled we killed Osama. I never stopped hoping for this outcome.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
Nate Silver makes the HW Bush comparison too.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n...

I'd agree with him for the most part. The most likely outcome is still that Obama wins on the basis of being a non-terrible incumbent with a non-terrible economy.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
Didn't we, as a nation, get over this a few years ago?
Look at the last sentence of this article. Really, guys? You're either immature or sloppy proofreaders, it's lose-lose.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
One of my flatmates was on Skype when they announced it
The person she was Skyping with said, "Did you hear? They killed Obama!" And even after being corrected, she kept mixing up the names, and then she said, "You know how Obama-Biden sounds like Osama bin Laden? Like, Obama-Biden, Osama bin Laden, sounds the same, right? That's why I get confused." And then she started complaining about how President Obama "ruined" the healthcare system, and I kind of wanted to barge in and ask her to explain exactly what he did that a person of her intelligence disagreed with so vehemently. But I didn't.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
.......wow.
American citizen? or Kiwi?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
American
Kiwis are mostly just bemused that it's taken us this long to address our gaping healthcare problems, and bemused that the relatively minor overhaul that got passed is so damn controversial.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Looking around on twitter...
This thing is bigger than I originally imagined.  People are massing all over the country to celebrate.  Fireworks are going off and major partying in the streets.  This is probably not as big as V-J day, but it might be in the category of V-E day, which is huge.  I'm guessing that it will be very hard to paint Obama as "unamerican" now or in the future.  This could be a bigger fucking deal than I originally thought!

Fantastic!  It couldn't have come at a better time!  Thank you providence and Dame Fortune for smiling upon us today!

No problem.
We may only be about 170,000 people, but the power of our combined smiling is undefeatable! :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I don't understand, I really don't
Yes, bin Laden had blood on his hands and the world is a far better place without him alive, I agree 100% with all the folks out there saying that... but the machinery that allowed him to do the things that eventually invited this retribution still is, to some degree, there. He's still got followers out in the world advancing his agenda. There's still wars on. For lack of a better phrase, there are still more monsters to slay.

This just seems to me like tying up a loose end, not a world-changing victory.

I know this is going against the spirit of things right now, and apologies if I piss anyone off, since I don't mean to. I feel like I'm missing something, and it irks me.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
It's symbolic, sure,
but the symbolism is key. Nothing will ever stop all enemies of his country, and certainly not ones who operate outside the boundaries of a normal state. To the extent that Al Qaeda is a dominant force some parts of the world and bin Laden a force in it, we struck a huge against him and against it. If nothing else, it shows that you can't always out run us, that we will find you even if it takes us a while. Perhaps it's more important strategically that I could imagine, but even if it's nothing but symbolism, it's important.

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Actually, if you look up...
I wrote a comment that basically shares your sentiment.  When I heard the news, I was like, "Cool!" but have the exact same concerns as you.  Al Quida is not dead, not even close.  I'm guessing that a lot of people probably aren't realizing that at the moment.
[ Parent ]
It's not really about crushing Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda proper has pretty much been decimated for the past few years, with regional affiliates doing all of the work.

It's really about vengeance/justice for 9/11 and the previous attacks, regardless of whether or not this makes us safer going forward.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
A commenter from the National Review's "The Corner"
mypalfish
05/01/11 23:03
"I'd rather have Bin Laden hiding for many more years than have Obama get the credit...and guaranteed re-election. How could Bush fail for 8 years and Obama gets him in just a few? Ugh.

Now at the Phillies/Mets game, the fans are chanting USA and OBAMA. This is the worst possible news."

Wow
Anyway here is the sorta juicy details on how the US finally cornered Bin Laden and ended his miserable existence.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wow, that's pathetic.
On a similar note, I saw some conservative friends suggest on Twitter that he did this merely to raise the spirits of Americans for his reelection, or something like that.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Maybe it has something to do
With Obama actually putting the adults in charge.
[ Parent ]
Sabato tweets:

LarrySabato Larry Sabato
Most tweeps happy. A few are so bitterly anti-Obama they can't even celebrate this triumph (4 POTUS & military). Grow up.
4 hours ago

LarrySabato Larry Sabato
Wonder when Obama first heard? Maybe this was why he was smiling even during his birther press conference.
4 hours ago

LarrySabato Larry Sabato
Almost 100% of Obama's political enemies will praise him for this one. Imagine the 2012 TV ad.
4 hours ago

LarrySabato Larry Sabato
This is a giant political plus for Barack Obama.
4 hours ago

Here's another old memory.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Talk about a blast from the past
I hadn't seen that in very nearly a decade...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Where were you?
When I heard the Twin Towers had been hit, I was at school in Portland, Oregon, just before class started.

When I heard Osama bin Laden had been located and killed, I was in my apartment in Auckland, New Zealand, just after class ended.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

.
I was woken up by my parents. I was home-schooled at the time.

I was in the shower writing an essay when I heard last night. I'm just now finishing that essay... in the shower.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
interesting
I was woken up by my mother and was also homeschooled at the time.

last night I was chatting on IRC and someone said something.

20, male, independent, WI-07.

[ Parent ]
How does that even work?
I mean, I feel like either your paper or your computer would get wet.
[ Parent ]
.
I plug in the computer outside the door, I set the computer on a wooden footrest that I place up against the bathtub. I use the suction cups on my shower curtain to suction one side of it to the back wall (to keep the water away from my computer), turn on the water full blast and point it straight down (to keep water away from my computer). Lay back against the side wall and write essays. Its very soothing. I've spent hours in there before when I can't breath because of allergies (the steam really helps).  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.
[ Parent ]
Maybe I should try that some time.
I am plagued with dozens of resistant allergies.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
.
When the twin hours hit, i had left school to go to the doctor. Needless to say, we didn't go.

When i heard osama died i was playing NHL 11. I got a email from the NYT and turned off my game in the middle.

18, Dem, PA-7

[ Parent ]
9/11
I had just gotten off the bus from school and my mom told me about it. This was, of course, in the afternoon, and the attacks happened in the morning. in retrospect I have no idea why I didn't hear about it until so late.

I was in my room last night when I found out about Osama.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Funny enough
When they called the assembly to tell us about 9/11, I was in my 4th grade French class.

When I got the phone call from my girlfriend about the guy dying, I was studying for my German final and watching the Mets play the Phillies; it was tied in the bottom of the eighth. I ended up having time to go and turn on a bit of the pre-coverage and the president's speech, and then go back and watch the last two or three innings of the game. Mets won; pretty great night altogether.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

[ Parent ]
Yeah, two other good things happened to me last night as well.
Good things come in threes I guess.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
In all good fairy tales
The princess gets married and the bad guy is defeated.
[ Parent ]
I was in my rhetoric class at college in 2001.
I was in my apartment in front of my computer taking a break from helping my boyfriend with chemistry in 2011.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
My thoughts on the big news
I just keep thinking about this exchange during the Democratic primary.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Weekly Open Thread: What Contentious Ridings Are You Interested In? | 518 comments

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