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(update 7) Rolling Canadian Election Discussion

by: tietack

Sat Apr 30, 2011 at 10:45 AM EDT


Since a few of us are into Canada, and what's happening up there, I thought I'd set up a separate diary for the discussion....

and predictions..... for the 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons. (Sorry, I'm not providing Tim Horton's doughnuts for the winner.) Right now, I'm projecting (just an eyeball guess, I haven't analyzed the 308 ridings, and I reserve the right to change this until voting starts to close in Atlantic Canada Monday -- 8:30 PM newfie time -- that's 4 PM Pacific daylight time, if I'm translating correctly.)

update 5, part 1, revised projection, based on May 1 Nanos and Apr 30 Angus Reid. I'm surprised that the NDP hasn't continued falling in the daily Nanos tracking, which suggests some recovery yesterday after Layton's rapid response.)

update 7 -- my final predix

Conservative: 142 145 144
Liberal: 75 57 48
NDP: 70 85 100
BQ: 20 15
Greens: 1
(I think Elizabeth May will pull off that district in and North of Victoria. If I'm eyeballing the map right, it's the district that includes Buchart Gardens.)

Inspired by others, I'm also showing my splits by region:

       Cons/Lib/NDP/Other

BC           17/6/12/1 (green)
AL           27/0/1/0
Sas/Man 23/1/4/0
Ontario  60/25/21/0
Quebec  6/5/49/15 (BQ)
Atlantic   10/10/12/0
North      1/1/1/0

(end update 7)

One excellent resource for projections seems to be the guy I'm calling the Canadian Nate, aka Eric Grenier. He's getting as much play up in Canada as Nate does here. He has daily analysis and a riding by riding projection, on his site, http://www.threehundredeight.b...

PROVISO: Everything in this diary is based on my personal finger to the air guesses. If you want to say that I'm talking out of my whatchamacallit, you're free to do so, The intent of this diary is for fun -- and perhaps for lessons learned that we can use here.
tietack :: (update 7) Rolling Canadian Election Discussion
(update 5, part 2: Nanos poll released May 1)

Latest Nanos suggests that the NDP surge has stopped, and may be somewhat reversing but has stabilized at 37/23/31/5.5 (Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ), ref http://www.ctv.ca/mini/electio...  Normal provisos apply, the Nanos rolling 3 day poll has very small daily sample sizes (400 nationally in Canada), esp for the individual regions. (e.g. 50/day in BC, if memory serves)

Perhaps the NDP misstep on monetary policy is hurting. Perhaps the stupid Sun thing is throwing the NDP off message. It's unclear which other parties are benefiting in each region.

Looks like a Cons/Lib bump in the Atlantic is a tight 3-way race, a small lib bump in the NDP is coming back to earth in Quebec, a small Cons lead Liberal recovery in Ontario, Cons dominance in the Praries seems enhanced, and stability in BC -(which suggests a drop in a day or two as good NDP numbers cycle out).-

end update 5

As long as the Conservatives stay below 39%, the key to preventing a Tory majority is a two or three party split in Ontario (which seems to be the case at the moment, but watch out if the gap between the Conservatives and whomever is in 2nd in that province gets above 10 points.)

(update 1 for other seat projections)

(update 2 for the new 308 projection)
308's 4/30 seat projection (in his notes, Grenier is still anticipating more of a move from the PQ to the NDP.)

144/65/59/40
(Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ)
(end update 2)

EKOS's 4/29 seat projection:

146/42/109/10/1
(Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ/random Quebec indie)
(end update 1)

update 3 - Angus Reid poll suggests NDP surge continues
http://www.angus-reid.com/poll...
(percentage) 37/19/33/6
(Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ)

No seat projections (that I see) from Angus, but they're looking at a substantial Tory lead in Ontario, which would bring them close to a majority, with substantial NDP leads in the Atlantic and Quebec, along with a near tie in BC, which I think would get them closer to 90 seats.

Their poll was Apr 28-29, with 2100 "absolutely certain voters"

end update 3

(update 6: Latest EKOS Poll -- near statistical tie between Conservatives and NDP!)

They do like 3000 voters in a rolling 3 day poll, so I'm using an extra significant digit.

Cons/Lib/NDP/BQ
34.6/31.4/20.4/5.4

(It's actually closer among committed voters)

Highlights:
BC: 36.3/15.3/36.5
Alberta: still a Tory runaway
Sas/Man: 46.5/13.5/30.1
Ontario: 39.8/26.7/26.2
Quebec: 14.6/15.2/39.9/22.8
Atlantic: 24.4/28.3/41.3

EKOS doesn't have their latest seat projection up yet, except to suggest that the NDP s/b within 20 seats of the Tories

Quebec is abandoning the Bloc Quebecois even further and the NDP could virtually sweep that province in a breathtaking development.

Sounds like EKOS is ready to project 60+ NDP seats in Quebec alone.

(end update 6)
update 4 -- 308's "best case scenarios" for the 3 parties

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(update 7) Rolling Canadian Election Discussion | 147 comments
If the Liberals still win more seats than the NDP
despite the fact that they're still well behind in third place, then it's just more proof as to how fucked up the FPTP system is with more than two parties.

My completely random guess is:

Conservative - 138
NDP - 84
Liberal - 67
Bloc - 18
Other - 1 (either May or a random Independent)

I have no idea what I'm doing, but I'm betting the amateur predictors around the interwebs are going to be just as off.

D'oh, that's right, there is a random indie in Quebec
someone in the Quebec city area I think who caucuses with the Conservatives. So I'll rationalize and say I'm counting him in the Tory numbers.

(I'm anticipating a Liberal recovery in Ontario, guessing that they may even tie the Tories there. Ontario is the Liberal focus in the final days, and now they're below the radar in the crossfire between the Conservatives and NDP.)

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Andre Arthur.
...in Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier outside Quebec City, who said that the Tories best align with his views.

Maybe I'm conflating all the orange, but I can't help but think that there's some LibDem quality to the NDP surge.  Of course, I've been plenty wrong about the US and UK before, so let's not even get to Canada.

[ Parent ]
Different animals
Unlike the LibDems, the NDP is clearly to the left of the other two parties. Their support is also more centralized, whereas it's much more spread out for the LibDems (hence why their bump in the polls fizzled out). It's going to be a lot easier for the NDP to make gains.
[ Parent ]
Arthur may lose his seat
A poll published Saturday showed him behind the NDP candidate in his riding, in a tie with the Bloc candidate for second. (I think the the numbers were NDP 31%, Arthur 28%, Bloc 27%, but I could be off by a point for either Arthur or the Bloc).

The Quebec City area has been a the Conservative party's only consistent area of strength  in Quebec for some time, and on Saturday the local newspaper published a series of polls showing the NDP was ahead or tied in all 6 ridings in and around the city. It is absolutely earth shattering.

Defeating Andre Arthur would be especially sweet -- the guy used to be a right wing talk radio shock jock, and basically has continued to do the same schtick in elected office. He is fairly overtly racist against Arab and Muslim immigrants (as case against him seeking damages for ugly comments he made about immigrant taxi drivers in Montreal made it to the Supreme Court, and he won on a technicality, but the court denounced his words as unacceptable racism...). He takes pride in the fact that he is a part-time MP - frequently taking time off from Parliament to drive a tour bus (a job he describes as his "hobby').

The idea that he would lose his seat to the NDP would have had me laughing a week ago -- and now it seems like a great chance it will actually happen.  

[ Parent ]
I'm going to revise my prediction somewhat
Conservative - 135
NDP - 94
Liberal - 61
Bloc - 17
Other - 1
[ Parent ]
And just to be doubly ambitious
I'm going to guess the results by province:

British Columbia - 20 Cons, 13 NDP, 2 Lib, 1 Green
Alberta - 26 Cons, 2 NDP
Saskatchewan - 10 Cons, 4 NDP
Manitoba - 8 Cons, 6 NDP
Ontario - 47 Cons, 34 Lib, 25 NDP
Quebec - 36 NDP, 17 Bloc, 14 Cons, 8 Lib
New Brunswick - 5 Cons, 3 Lib, 2 NDP
Nova Scotia - 5 Lib, 4 Cons, 2 NDP
Prince Edward Island - 3 Lib, 1 Cons
Newfoundland - 5 Lib, 2 NDP
Nunavut - 1 NDP
Northwest Territory - 1 NDP
Yukon - 1 Lib

This is a wild stab in the dark, so I'll be happy if any of them are close to the actual result.

[ Parent ]
I think you have Quebec quite close but I differ on BC
Although the Conservatives won 22 seats in the last election, I believe they will do well to hold on to 17 this go round. NDP is poised to improve over its 2008 holdings of 14 ridings with some expecting as many as 18 ridings to go NDP. Surrey North and Vancouver North are two of the ridings Conservatives are expected to lose to the NDP. Prince George-Peace River is another former Conservative stronghold expected to flip to NDP.  
[ Parent ]
Okay, this is my last attempt at a prediction
Conservative - 142
NDP - 103
Liberal - 46
Bloc - 17

British Columbia - 21 Cons, 14 NDP, 1 Lib
Alberta - 27 Cons, 1 NDP
Saskatchewan - 11 Cons, 2 NDP, 1 Lib
Manitoba - 9 Cons, 5 NDP
Ontario - 47 Cons, 34 NDP, 25 Lib
Quebec - 38 NDP, 17 Bloc, 14 Cons, 6 Lib
New Brunswick - 7 Cons, 2 Lib, 1 NDP
Nova Scotia - 5 NDP, 4 Lib, 2 Cons
Prince Edward Island - 2 Cons, 2 Lib
Newfoundland - 4 Lib, 2 NDP, 1 Cons
Nunavut - 1 Cons
Northwest Territory - 1 NDP
Yukon - 1 Lib

[ Parent ]
I'll do a province-by-province one
Conservative 132
NDP 104
Liberals 54
Bloc 17
Independents 1

(my prediction)

British Columbia - 19 Cons, 14 NDP, 3 Lib
(+ Esquimalt-JdF, Vancouver Island North, Surrey North, New Market North Delta, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo) [Watch out for Nanaimo-Alberni and Prince George-Peace River)

Alberta - 26 Cons, 2 NDP
(+ Edmonton East) [Edmonton Centre and Calgary Centre (and Centre-North) should all be interesting)

Saskatchewan - 11 Cons, 2 NDP, 1 Lib
(+ Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Palliser) [Churchill River should be close, maybe Regina-Qu'Appelle in a real wave)

Manitoba - 9 Cons, 4 NDP, 1 Lib
(+ Winnipeg North from libs) [Libs do face a good chance of losing Winnipeg South to the Tories]

Ontario - 52 Cons, 23 NDP, 32 Lib 1 Ind
(Okay, not going to get into this, but watch for Oshawa, Kenora, Essex, London-West, Brant, Guelph and several Toronto ridings like Davenport, Scarborough-Southwest, Beaches-East York, and Parkdale-High Park)

Quebec - 48 NDP, 17 Bloc, 5 Cons, 5 Lib
(For the sake of brevity, The Cons will hold only Beauce, Mégantic-L'Érable, Lévis-Bellechasse, Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean and Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière)

New Brunswick - 6 Cons, 2 Lib, 2 NDP
(+ Saint John) [It's the only possible breakthrough in NB, but something has to budge]

Nova Scotia - 6 NDP, 3 Lib, 2 Cons
(+ Dartmouth-Cole Harbor, Halifax West, South Shore-St. Margarets, and Central Nova)

Prince Edward Island - 2 Cons, 2 Lib
Newfoundland - 4 Lib, 2 NDP, 1 Cons
Nunavut - 1 Cons
Northwest Territory - 1 NDP
Yukon - 1 Lib

Well, that was pretty tough, but basically at this point, Ontario is impossible to determine.

[ Parent ]
Here's mine
based on the provincial polling.

Canadian Districts are more gerrymandered than US ones are.  The Liberals should collapse - but if the NDP surge doesn't happen in Quebec they will have fewer seats than the liberals.

Overall I have it    
131 Conservatives   64 Liberals   19 Bloc   92 NDP

In BC, 20 Conservatives, 14 NDP, 2 Liberals
Ontario, 47 Conservatives, 39 Liberals, 20 NDP
Quebec, 5 Cons, 5 liberal, 45 NDP, 19 Bloc

The Conservatives hold the prairies, and there is a minor shift to the NDP in the Maritmes.

[ Parent ]
I'd caution on Eric's predictions
His model for his predictions is old and clunky, and takes quite a lot of the numbers weighed in from pre-election and the pre-debate period. He's not catching the NDP wave in Québec, and barely catching up elsewhere.

Conservative 132
NDP 104
Liberals 54
Bloc 17
Independents 1 (Helena Guergis!)

I think Angus Reid and Ekos back you up
at least at the moment..
[ Parent ]
This guy has no track record
It's proof that if you set up a site to LOOK like 538, you've bought yourself the appearance of instant cred.
[ Parent ]
I've looked at his stuff.
There's a lot of nonsense in there. It should still work okay, but yeah. It's not 538.  

18- Hamburg, Germany (non-US-citizen)
[ Parent ]
Much of the Canadian media seems to have bought into it
I see citations of Grenier everywhere. He seems to have a regular column at Le Devoir, and maybe a freelance gig at the Globe and Mail.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of credibility
James, if you want to set up a diary / live blog of the election, I'll be happy to defer to you.
[ Parent ]
Thanks, but we'll liveblog this on Monday
No need for me to create another diary on this; yours is fine!
[ Parent ]
Yay!
I'm glad to hear there's going to be a live blog Monday.

30, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.
[ Parent ]
2 New Govts
On Monday, Canadians get a new government.

On Tuesday, SSP gets a new government.

[ Parent ]
And
Perhaps a touch of orange in both.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I haven't looked too closely at the model that he's using, but one of Nate's strengths is that his models are somewhat intuitive. Eric's put together a solid start, but it's clear he's no statistician.

That said, I still visit 308 at least once a day-- it's a good polling roundup, and there's something nice about seeing a conservative model to keep my hopes down.

What all of this does tell me, though, is that there's a real demand for 538-style analysis over traditional punditry. It'd be nice to have more people who know how to do something with all of the polling data we get now.

[ Parent ]
308's biggest problem is the age of their polls
In an rapidly changing election like this one, continuing to factor in polls from 2 or 3 weeks prior into the weighted predictions utterly fails to keep up with a very dynamic situation.

Grenier also puts a very high premium in his weighting on past results and incumbency. That probably works in a reasonably stable election environment, but not one where there are such evidently seismic shifts happening.

A lot of pundits in Canada are having a hard time getting their heads around what is happening and can't seem to adjust their models, formulae and analysis to deal with a new landscape.

If you want to see a really pathetic example, check out Election Prediction Project -- the editors are still predicting that the NDP will only win 6 seats in Quebec, while claiming the Bloc will grab 31. When you consider that all Quebec polls show the NDP in front by at least 11%, it is unbelievable. (That said, I love the format of the site itself, would love to see a similar format for looking at US House elections).  

[ Parent ]
That would really send shockwaves...
But I think it's a pretty reasonable projection right now. And numbers like that really do invite an NDP-Liberal alliance, even though Ignatieff is an arrogant son of a bitch and he's going to have a hard time swallowing being the minor partner.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Ignatieff
I think Ignatieff is going to have a really hard time staying on as Liberal leader. Even the best-case scenario is ugly. If you're the man in charge when your party drops to its lowest share of Parliament in 30 years... you're not the man in charge anymore. I don't think Ignatieff will be in a position to say no to anything.

The thing is, I have a hard time imagining who the obvious successor would be. Bob Rae? I just don't see it. Justin Trudeau, maybe?

[ Parent ]
I was thinking Rae, to be honest, if Iggy is forced out
Trudeau is just a last name. He's been in office for, what, three years? It would be seen as a total Hail Mary, I think.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Five ideas
Rae won't happen, his radioactive reputation would destroy what the Liberals have left in Ontario. He's a no go. Trudeau's too young and inexperienced but an absolute upgrade over Rae.

If Iggy were to resign/get canned, 5 names:

a)Ralph Goodale: Been around forever, well liked, gives the Liberals a different look and a Western face coming from Sasketchewan. Former Finance Minister under Martin and Minister of Natural Resources under Chretien.

b)Martha Hall Findlay: A former Toronto lawyer, represents Willowdale; ran in the 2006 leadership race, and was well recieved, though she didn't do terribly well. She's a young, energetic face, and having a female as leader would help the Liberals recover among women, who they have traditionally relied upon.

c)Dominic LeBlanc: Interesting in that he's a non-Quebec francophone; represents Beausejour in New Brunswick, was a lower level cabinet minister (ie a Parliamentary Secretary) in the Chretien and Martin governments;.

d)Frank McKenna: Former Premier of New Brunswick and Ambassador to the United States (a big deal up there); everybody in the party loves him, and he could unite it in about 5 minutes. If he's looking to be a savior and willing to take the chance....only problem is that he wasn't interested the last two times around

e) Some former prominent Chretien-era Cabinet Minister: John Manley, Anne McClellan, Brian Tobin, and Martin Cauchon come to mind.

[ Parent ]
any chance Sheila Copps could be convinced
to come out of retirement? She's not even 60, and was always quite the sparkplug.

As for Justin Trudeau, my guess is that he'll need another 5-10 years before we know if he's really ready for leadership.

[ Parent ]
Cauchon
Will be destroyed by the implosion of his comeback bid. Otherwise he would be the obvious pick.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Neither
Rae had his shot and he chose to concede to Ignatieff without any kind of vote.  Mr. Trudeau may not even have his seat on Tuesday, and most certainly lacks his father's skills.
It'll be someone new who decided not to get nuked in this election.  

If they survive, I would expect to see Scott Brison or Ralph Goodale take a shot at the leadership. They need someone from beyond Toronto/Montreal, and Ms. Fry from Vancouver-Centre is not the ticket.

[ Parent ]
Someone new, or someone old?
"It'll be someone new who decided not to get nuked in this election."

If that's the criteria, Frank McKenna comes to mind. I personally thik he'd maul both Harper and Layton. Along with someone like a John Manley, though I think they'd be well sereved to look outside Ontario. Maybe The Codfather, Brian Tobin?

As for capable Western faces with leadership potential, there's Goodale and Joyce Murray (if she survives on Monday).

[ Parent ]
I should have clarified
I was referring to someone who avoided the last Liberal leadership 'election'.

Having said that, you bring up some interesting choices.  Goodale would be a very good leader, but I think he's happy where he is right now.

Joyce Murray could do it, but does she have any kind of ambition for the job?  There's also the fact that Vancouver leaders tend to not do well, regardless of party.  Yes, I'm looking at you Kim Campbell.

[ Parent ]
One other Western name to throw out
And this one's out of left field-Gary Doer. He and Layton have rumordly never been close, and he's certainly wildly popular in Manitoba; it's a smaller leap from the Manitoba NDP to the federal Liberals than from their Ontario counterpart, and Rae (who strikes me as an opportunist) did it.
[ Parent ]
Doer
Gary Doer may be a bit more centrist than some of our members, but he's still an NDPer.  Transferring memberships to another party doesn't normally happen, unless they're severely damaged goods.  You know, like Misters Rae and Dosanjh.
I actually wouldn't mind Ambassador Doer taking over the federal NDP once his tour of duty in Washington is over.  He's certainly got bipartisan credentials, and Stephen Harper has said he won't negatively attack Doer or the accomplishments of Doer's government.
[ Parent ]
The Next NDP Leader......
My guess is that it's Mulcair. Especially after this week.
[ Parent ]
It's almost a guarantee
Mulcair kicked off the start of Quebec gains, and he's done a good job so far as Deputy Leader.  He's also a pretty sharp attack dog from what I remember of him.  
[ Parent ]
So, I just checked out the website for both NDP and Liberals
Is it just me or does the Liberals seem . . . stale in their messaging.  Liberals front page is "watch the speech everyone is talking about" and it's the party leader forming this rhetorical flourish around "so what?" regarding Canadian's reactions to Harper's ethical standards. At the end he keeps repeating this isn't about the Liberals and Harper must be stopped. It impressed me as though he was saying between the lines "I'll be the attack dog, I'll fight Harper tooth and nail. Vote NDP, give them the reigns if it means Harper's defeat." Compare that to NDP's very positive messaging to the Liberals . . . bland and boring tone.

It reminds me in 2004 Dem caucus in Iowa. Dean leads and the establishment was desperate to stop it. I always felt Gephardt felt the task fell to him to be the attack dog and take Dean out so another could win it, in that case Kerry. I feel right now Harper/Cons are in the Dean seat, Michael Ignatieff/Liberals are playing Gephardt, and Jack Layton/NDP are playing the role of Kerry.

Or maybe I'm just stupid. We'll see Monday. Any result that doesn't have Harper as PM is a good one in my opinion.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Funny
It's interesting in your use of the 2004 election, cause just from watching the CBC videos, Ignatieff reminds me of Kerry. I guess more in terms of the left in general, to me it looks like Ignatieff is the establishment middle of the road pick like Kerry. Wasn't really that inspiring. Versus a Layton or Dean who seemed to activate the left in terms of passion.
[ Parent ]
My Prediction
Con 132
NDP 98
Liberal 64
Bloc 14
Green 0

Hard to say but with the Toronto Star Endorsement the NDP wave could sneek into Ontario as well and then anywhere from 110 to 120 seats is in play for the NDP.

NDP-Liberal Merger
Not being from Canada, I'm wondering how serious this actually is.

Sen. Larry Campbell says it's time.

http://www.canada.com/news/dec...

http://news.nationalpost.com/2...

Others say it's nonsense.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/b...

One other thing I find interesting is the difference from the national parties and the local/provinicial parties. Four provincial Liberal parties (Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec, and Saskatchewan) have severed ties with the federal Liberal party.

Like in British Columbia. You have a Liberal government with the NDP as the official opposition, but it's mainly because the Liberals have moved to the right and made the Conservatives non-existent.

Or in Saskatchewan where the Liberals and Conservatives seem to have merged into the Saskatchewan Party to counter the NDP.

And one other thing I find interesting is how in Saskatchewan, the NDP has been highly successful locally, yet since 2004 the NDP has been shut out of federal seats in the province. Or Manitoba, where they've had success and have the government, but only have 4 seats federally.

I can kind of see that in America where for instance in the South state and local Democrats had success, but not at the presidential level. Or in areas like the northeast where moderate and liberal Republicans had success at the state and local level, but not at the presidential level.

Swings and Such
I found a pretty good all around resource in Canadian Election 2011:

http://www.electionalmanac.com...

If you want to have fun with Swings and Splits with the actual map of Canada visit:

http://predictor.hillandknowlt...

The Toronto Star just endorsed...
The NDP. Quite strongly, too.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Are newspaper endorsements big in Canada?
I know that they tend to be much bigger deals in the UK than they are here in the states. Is it the same for Canada?

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Newspaper endorsements
Not that big, except when they're shocking like the Star endorsement was.  Sad to see the Globe and Mail endorse another Harper Government though.
[ Parent ]
NDP should fade over the weekend....
I'm going to guess that we'll continue to see erosion of the NDP surge to a certain extent this weekend, particularly in Ontario (as to why, nine simple words: "Remember the good old days of the Rae government?"). I think correspondingly, we see some recovery for the Liberals, who, in my opinion, have not actually run that bad of a campaign. Polling seems to indicate that they have some potential to actually win outright in a three way in Ontario.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the Liberals, in the end, eke out a narrow second place finish over the NDP; mostly because outside of 5-8 ridings in Quebec, they have absolutely nothing resembling a GOTV machine there. Couple that with a modest Liberal recovery in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, more than a few soft NDP voters getting cold feet in the ballot box, and....it's just enough to save LPC from absolute disaster.

As for who I would vote for if I were a Canadian? Harper creeps me out, and Layton reminds me too much of a used car salesman; plus he has some folks who are pretty far out there on the left (Libby Davies in Vancouver East comes to mind). That leaves Ignatieff and the Liberals; while I think they could have picked a better leader (Dominic LeBlanc or Ralph Goodale), they're not terribly likely to massively screw anything up one way or another.  

Eh, I dunno
The hurdle for the NDP was getting voters to see them as viable. Well, now they're seen as viable, and the impression I get is that Jack Layton is much better liked than Michael Ignatieff (and gee, I wonder why).

I think a lot of people want to compare the NDP surge to the LibDem surge, but the LibDems have always been seen as sort of a quixotic third party in the UK, while the NDP is actually a major party in its own right that has been overshadowed by the Liberals in federal politics as of late. Now that the NDP is seen as viable on the federal level, I think a lot of voters who go NDP at the provincial level but Liberal at the federal level are going to swing to the NDP. And I think a lot of BQ voters are going to swing to the NDP as well.

(For anyone who's curious, BTW, the popular former leader of the National Party down here in New Zealand just took over ACT, which is NZ's version of the Libertarian Party. Interesting, right?)

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Re:
I can't stress this enough; the NDP has little organizaton in Quebec-unlike in every other province in the nation, there's no provincial NDP to piggyback off of, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Jean Charest's crew isn't helping them out. Their support in Quebec is a mile wide, and an inch deep. When I lived in Montreal briefly, the NDP ran Jack Layton in all 75 ridings, and as recently as '07 had no MPs  with the thought of one being laughable.

The NDP are not going to stall as badly as the LibDems, but the federal Libs should hold onto more seats-unless fortress Toronto collapses. In Quebec, the Libs should do okay; their voters are mostly Montreal anglos and allos, and the NDP surge seems to be concentrated among younger francos. Plus, West Islanders would walk over broken glass to vote Liberal. They will suffer in Gatineau/Hull/Pontiac; the NDP can deploy resources from Ottawa there. Out West, there's little to lose.

[ Parent ]
NDP Quebec surge
It's confined to younger francophones?  Not a shred of polling bears that out, nor does the fact that several former BQ individuals recently endorsed them.

The riding level organizations are not there, that's definitely true, but I sincerely doubt that it's going to cost the NDP as dearly as you think.  Unless of course you're willing to posit that the 35% of Quebec voters who now back the NDP on top of their original 10% are all simply going to do nothing, or can't vote without party assistance.  

[ Parent ]
Concentrated, not limited to
I said it was concentrated, not confined to younger francophones. I think they are picking up broad support, cutting into the BQ's voters, predominatly and also making inroads among some soft nationalists who backed the Cons. What I think is that the Libs are better (not completely) insulated; their support base in the province is hardcore federalist francos, allos, and anglos.
[ Parent ]
The EKOS cross tabs suggest differently
from the PDF of the full report from Apr 29, on the EKOS politics Website, p 18

NDP support, in percent

<25:   34.4
25-44: 43.3
45-64: 38.9
65+  : 34.5

The distribution seems pretty even to me.

[ Parent ]
Those percentages are for Quebec, n/t

[ Parent ]
allos
Does this mean immigrants whose native language is something other than French or English and stereotypically don't know much French besides "allo"? I looked it up on Urban Dictionary and got nothing.

41, Ind, CA-05
[ Parent ]
According to Wikipedia
It does mean an immigrant who speaks neither French nor English. The "allo" apparently comes from the Greek "allos" meaning other. But I like your explanation better.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Don't remember for sure
but I think of "allos" as immigrants to Quebec, one of the unfortunate objects of Bill 101. (that bill essentially said: French is the only official language of Quebec, English language signs are not allowed. But Bill 101 did a lot more.)

In essence, the PQ wanted to force all immigrants to Quebec to learn French, and make them all go to French language schools, even though the great majority of them preferred English. It was essential, in their view, to preserving the separate national culture of Quebec.

To me, it's one area where the PQ is compatible with Republican xenophobes.

[ Parent ]
For more info
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

In other words, if Americans wanted to move to Quebec, their children would have to go to French language only schools, even if they've never taken French before.  

[ Parent ]
The Liberals aren't insulated from the NDP surge in Quebec
In 2008, they won 24% of the popular vote (much of it concentrated in Anglophone/allophone Montreal and the Outaouais).

In the last 4 days, the poll results for the Liberals in Quebec have ranged from 13-19%, with most in 15-16% range.

A lost of 5% to 11% of the total vote represents a sizable drop -- from 21% to 46% of their vote, a loss on par with what polls say the Bloc is experiencing.

Trust me, in Montreal there are a bucketload of Liberal voters moving to the NDP -- more Anglo and Franco than allophone, but plenty in all three categories. Enough to put a bunch of their seats in real jeopardy.  

[ Parent ]
I've read somewhere that even (Justin) Trudeau's seat
is at risk.
[ Parent ]
Another thing
I believe occupation is on the ballot. Will a certain percentage of NDP voters defect when they see their local candidate is a college student?

If so, this may cost the NDP 5% or so in a lot of seats.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Occupation is not on the ballot N/T

[ Parent ]
I've been through surge elections in Quebec
Organization doesn't mean as much during a surge as it does in a routine boring election.

People only need some party volunteer to pull them out to vote when they are indifferent and uninterested.

The best GOTV operation a party can have is a sense of momentum and excitement, and the NDP in Quebec has that completely. Voters get motivated by the sense of excitement, of being part of history, and of having the chance to "send them a message."

Right now, the media is the NDP GOTV operation, and it will work.

When Le Soleil sticks "orange wave" all over their cover, every voter in Quebec city got the message that the way to beat the Conservatives is the vote NDP (especially in conjunction with polls in all the ridings in the region showing the NDP in front). It sent a message to wavering Bloc voters that they should climb on the NDP bandwagon.

The Lib/Dem surge had already clearly crested by election day - their poll numbers were going down in the days leading up to the election. The opposite is true for the NDP - every single poll in Quebec in the last 10 days shows the NDP between 36 and 42. (You don't get those kind of numbers just with young francophones - their support is much broader than that).

They might fall a few points short of that, but they are going to be well over 30%, and well in front of every other party. The Bloc might be able to pull an extra percent out by activating the PQ machine - but at this point, their volunteers are demoralized and defeated, not fired up and excited about working in a losing campaign. (That is, if they haven't already shifted to the NDP - in Hochelega and Rosemont, significant chunks of the local Bloc organisation have defected and are working for the NDP).

The sense of excitement in Montreal and Quebec right now is palpable. This isn't a bubble that is going to burst -- an absolute minimum of 25 NDP seats out of Quebec is going to happen, and will probably be well above 40.


[ Parent ]
Quebec has swung wildly in the past
IIRC, Liberals held 74 of 75 seats when Joe Clark won in '79, but were reduced to some teen number after Trudeau left in '84 by Brian Baloney's Progressive Conservatives (I forget, they won 60+ seats in the province in '84?). The PC were reduced to one seat in Quebec in '93 by Bouchard's BQ.
[ Parent ]
I tihnk you're wrong
The NDP hasn't faded, in fact the newest polls still show the NDP surge moving ahead.
[ Parent ]
The Canadian Greens mystify me
A pretty solid 4-5% in polls (if not actual voting) and zero seats.  Equally divided their support would be worth 12 to 15 of the total seats, in other words, a voice in government.  

Given though they are one of four leftish parties, whose emphasis is just different than the others, there seems no path to success, ever.  Unlike the NDP, who have always had the plausible hope the Liberals would collapse, the Greens have to hope for the Liberals and the NDP to collapse, simultaneously.  No way.

So instead of 5% of the people having a real voice (that 5% would translate into about 10% of a governing left party) they have no voice at all.

No voice at all is far worse than the voice the NDP or BQ have had for decades.  It's self-disenfranchisement.  In America it's no big deal because they amount to well under 1% of the voters, but 5% is a very significant amount of people who are completely ignored in the halls of power.  Minorities normally try to get attention, not get ignored.

Indeed.
  If I were Canadian I would prefer the NDP. But if any of the other non-Conservative parties had a better chance in my riding, I would not think twice about voting for them instead.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Read their platforms
There are significant differences between the Greens and the NDP - particularly on taxes and on pension reform.

I have to admit I was surprised.

As is true in other parts of the World, the Greens aren't necessarily anti free markets.  There was a pro free market segment of the German Greens for example.

[ Parent ]
Minutiae

[ Parent ]
Question.
   Why are there never coalition governments in Canada? In the UK there is a Tory-Liberal Democrat government, and in Germany there is a Christian Democrat-Free Democrat government. Is it possible in Canada to form a coalition government? Could there be a Liberal-NDP coalition government?

24, Male, GA-05
Two things
A. The Bloque Qubecois, a parochial Quebec party that is incompatible with any of the other parties because the the BQ is so parochial.  It's a left-of-center party, but would never join a coaliton either with the Liberal Party or the nDP.

B. The Liberal (which is largely centrist) Party and NDP (center-left to leftist) aren't quite compatible.  There was concern that if they joined in coalition, the Liberal Party's right flank would defect to the Conservative Party and that the NDP's left flank would defect to the Greens.

But yeah, they really should join in coalition.  Otherwise, they're just handing control to a minority Conservative government.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

[ Parent ]
Last time was 1864, if I understand correctly
though there was a compact between the Liberals and NDP in 1970 or so which lead to Canadian single payer health care.

In the UK, while there was a grand coalition during WWII, the Tory LibDem compact was the first actual coalition since then.

[ Parent ]
and before that in the 60s during Pearson's minority Liberal governments
support from the CCP (NDP's predecessor in a lot of ways) led to the first parts of the single-payer health system.  But oddly enough for FPTP parliamentary systems, Canadian custom is to allow the party with the largest number of seats to govern as a minority government if they so choose.
[ Parent ]
From 1972 to 1974
Pierre Trudeau's Liberal were a minority government with the formal support of the NDP under David Lewis, but it was not a "coalition" in the sense of NDP members becoming part of Cabinet. (But it was closer than the kind of issue-by-issue minority government that Harper and most other recent minorities have used to govern).

But the NDP and the Liberals didn't have an electoral compact or any similar arrangement.  

Similarly, Lester Pearson's Liberal minority depended on support from Tommy Douglas's NDP, and enacted the first national health care programme in 1966. (Although some credit has to be given to both a number of provincial governments that had implemented major health reforms, and even to Conservative PM John Diefenbaker's majority government,  which had greatly expanded the federal government's role in paying for health care, and who had appointed the "Royal Commission on Health Care Services" in 1962, which recommended the expansion of Saskatchewan's single payer system to the entire country.  

[ Parent ]
CON 35/ NDP 33/ LIB 19
Forum Research Poll conducted yesterday, just released

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dai...

Ontario with:

Con 36%
NDP 31%
LIB 25%

(although they also say the Conservatives are polling at 40% in the GTA, followed by the Lobs with 30%... reflecting a lot of Conservative strength in some suburbs and exurbs, and Liberal strength in parts of the city and inner burbs).

In Quebec, it is:

NDP 33%
Bloc: 21%
Con: 16%
LIB: 13%

They also say the NDP are at 49% in Montreal - but don't give break-outs for the other parties there. At that rate, the NDP will sweep the vast majority of Montreal seats.

Atlantic:

NDP: 30%
Con: 31%
LIB: 26%

Manitoba/Sask:

Con: 45%
ND: 33%
LIB: 15%

BC:

NDP: 37%
CON: 39%
LIB: 15%
Green: 9%

--
All told, a pretty incredible set of results for the NDP. In addition to trying to figure out how many seats the wave brings for them, the big question will be if the Liberal collapse in Ontario, especially the GTA, allows the Conservatives to gain many seats there. It won't be enough for them to make up for their losses to the NDP elsewhere to win a majority, but it might allow them to get out of the election without much of a net loss of seats.

--

Only remaining pollster left to report in is EKOS (who has hinted that his results are very similar to this one). Additionally, NANOS is going to release a final set of numbers tonight included polling from today. Yesterday they said they were seeing strengthening NDP numbers, so will be interesting to see if their final numbers also show a continuing surge.


Exciting!
It looks to me that the NDP surge hasn't ended yet, and that with each new day they are gaining.
I'm going out on a limb but I think the NDP will win 100+ seats.
I hope that the NDP will be able to form a majority government. Then finally after about a decade the left will control the federal government. It's been a disgrace to democracy that the left doesn't control the government when they consistently have gotten 60%+ of the vote.
If I were the NDP one of my first legislative pushes would be for a run off system.  
[ Parent ]
NDP wants electoral reform, but not run-offs
While there certainly is a chance the NDP could form a MINORITY government, your wishes for a MAJORITY government seem beyond the scope - that would require 155 seats. I've done a lot of looking at the riding-by-riding prospects, and even if the most long shot of seats comes through everywhere, the party probably tops off at most with about 135 viable seat prospects, 140 at a real incredulous stretch. (And realistically, about 120 is the absolute best there is any reason at all to hope for - and as low as 85 or 90 is still a distinct possibility).

But if the NDP win the most seats, it will be very difficult to deny them the right to form the government. Harper has been emphatic that the second place party can't govern (a flawed interpretation of parliamentary democracy, but one he has staked his entire campaign on). If the Conservatives come in second this campaign, Harper will soon be stepping down as leader in the relatively near future.

A trickier question is what happens if Harper losses seats, but still narrow edges out the NDP for 1st. Would the Liberals then support a Harper minority government, or would they team up with the NDP to defeat the Harper government and allow the NDP a shot at governing. It isn't a clear cut question.

With everything it flux right now, the exact seat count is extremely hard to predict - it is a very complex set of 3 and 4 way calculations, and I'd say that well over half the seats in Parliament are actually in play and at least somewhat competitive -- an almost unprecedented situation.

--

A key part of the NDP platform has long been electoral reform, but not a run-off or IRV system.

Instead they advocate for a modified proportional representation system.

There are a number of versions of this floating around, but the general idea is that voters would still elect members in a first past the post system. But an additional bunch of MPs would be added to the system, and these would be used to balance out the difference between popular vote totals and parliamentary representation.

As a hypothetical rough example, say in Alberta the Conservatives currently hold  27 of 28 seats, based on getting about 60% of the vote. Say that the remaining votes were divided 18% NDP, 12% Liberal and and 8% Green.

Under this system, a remaining batch of seats (about 9 for a province the size of Alberta) would be added, and divided up according to a formula, something like another 4 seats for the NDP (bringing them to 5, in addition to the one they elect), 3 for the Liberals and 2 for the Greens).

Folks have worked up models showing that it would only take about 100 new seats to create a system that pretty much mitigates the FPTP distortions.

Conveniently, there are 105 members in the Canadian Senate, whose members are appointed by the Prime Minister. The NDP wants to abolish the Senate, which would free up the resources to create these additional seats in the House of Commons.

That's just one of the electoral reform proposals floating around. Won't be easy to get something passed, but this election should provide real incentive to see some movement on it.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
Thanks for the clarifications. From my view a "modified proportional representation system" sounds better then a run off system. Given that every party that gets above a certain threshold of votes gets some seats.
I always assumed that the Liberals were closer ideologically to the NDP then the Conservatives and wouldn't caucus or form a government with the Conservatives. But I'm thinking that assumption is wrong; do the Liberals really dislike the NDP more then Harper?
[ Parent ]
Regardless of who they are most aligned with
The Liberals also have to think about what best serves their party in the long run. The Liberals would probably rather have the NDP than the Conservatives in power, but they also have to know if they make Layton Prime Minister the next election will almost certainly be Conservatives vs. New Democrats with the New Democrats as the main party of the left and the Liberals as an afterthought at best. But OTOH, if they back the Conservatives, the Liberals risk losing even more of their support on the left to the NDP.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
The liberals supporting the Cons now would be a complete suicide pact
If I were them, I'd support an NDP minority government, with the hopes that they fall flat on their face.  And then the next election could be more Lib vs Con.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
This
This is exactly what's going to end up happening, especially since the Liberals are likely to have yet another leadership campaign following this election.
[ Parent ]
If I'm the Libs
If I'm the Libs I pray for a Tory majority tomorrow. It would give them four years to rebuild and let the NDP-mania die down. It'd also help to attract top shelf talent who are wary of having to be on continuous election footing. Plus, they wouldn't have to prop up one party or the other.
[ Parent ]
NYT
picks up on the Orange Surge in Canada, with some interesting tidbits:

Mr. Harper, by contrast, led a tightly controlled campaign (one woman was expelled from a Conservative rally after organizers discovered that her FaceBook page featured a photo of her with an opposition politician) and often seemed uncomfortable with crowds.

Desmond Morton, a historian and the former director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada in Montreal said that the pivotal moment for the New Democrats came during a televised French language debate.

"Layton emerged as a likeable guy with a street-smart accent, a member of a well-known Montreal family," Professor Morton, a former adviser to the New Democrats, wrote in an e-mail.

And some storm clouds for the NDP if they do as well as the polls are saying, especially in Quebec:

If the party's post election caucus is dominated by French speaking members from Quebec, he said, "their inexperience and their expectations may make the N.D.P. unviable in the rest of Canada."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

One of the better articles on Canadian politics
that I have ever seen published in a US paper.

Jack Layton's father (Bob) was a Progressive Conservative MP and Cabinet member back in the 1980s under Brian Mulroney.

--

A lot of second guessing is already starting to happen in the Conservative Party camp. The buzz is that they made a huge mistake by running an extremely cautious, overly controlled campaign. Their strategy seemed to be that with a divided opposition, their path to a majority was through selectively targeting ridings with money and organisation, while ignoring any broader messaging or large themes. Coupled with a lot of public resentment over Harper's secrecy and control queen tendencies, it made it impossible for them to grow their vote much beyond the 1/3rd of the electorate that is solidly conservative.    

--

The NDP is going to be electing enough new members from all parts of the country that they should be able to avoid the problem of being viewed as too "Quebec-centric". And there are some talented folks - from Quebec and other places - who will really shine when given the opportunity (in opposition or in government). I know some of the Quebec folks, and they are going to surprise a lot of folks in Ottawa with their political skills (and their English language abilities). Hopefully all the new members will be well mentored and supported by more seasoned folks, but I'm not altogether too worried about how they are going to come off. After 5 years of Harper's robots, they are all going to seem like breath of fresh air.  

[ Parent ]
FYI: many Canadian news/web sites will take down poll results by midnight
There is a law in Canada prohibiting the publication of poll results on election day.

As a result of that, many Canadian websites and newspaper sites will be removing the polls from their pages until the polls are closed in BC.

Not all of them will do this -- the law actually probably only actually prohibits publishing a new poll on election day, not keeping old ones accessible to the public. And it would be impossible to expect a discussion site to go through and remove all the references to poll results that can be found on their pages.

Nonetheless, several polling outfits have announced that they will be taking down their poll numbers at midnight (?Newfie time?). So if you have a poll you want to consult, download it now, because you may not have access to it during the day tomorrow.

I believe EKOS and Nanos are both planning to put out updates from the final day polling results around 10 PM (ET) tonight. Frank Graves at EKOS has also said he is going to release a lot more data about likely voter participation and how that will affect final numbers. I'll try to grab those numbers and post them here before they get taken down.

--

Similarly, tomorrow night will be difficult to get election results from eastern Canada while the polls are still open in BC. While the the votes in eastern Canada will be counted as soon as the polls close, they won't be posted on the web because of the ban on transmission of results while the polls are still open in the west. (There have been prosecutions in the past for breaking the ban, which is somewhat controversial in Canada).

My understanding is that at 10 pm eastern, folks in the US with cable/dish will be able to watch a simulcast of the CBC coverage on C-SPAN, and CBC should also be able to be streamed live on the web (although they tend to get very funky when large numbers of people attempt to watch something live.)


Luckily with basic cable
I can get the CBC station in Vancouver.

Radical or something, WA-07
[ Parent ]
My predictions
I'm going to go out on a limb and say the seats will fall like this:

Conservative 139
Liberal 59
New Democrats 100
Bloc Quebecs 9
Green/other 1

I saw some crosstabs elsewhere
showing Conservatives with almost 1/2 of the vote in Ontario and with L and NDP splitting the other half almost evenly. That seems like amazingly good news for the Conservatives.  
It's the Tories best hope
An even Lib/NDP split in Ontario (45/25/25, with 5 green) between Liberals and NDP in Ontario could potentially yield the Tories as many as 70 (maybe 75) seats (best case for them), which would likely lead to a majority.

See my link above for the May 1 released EKOS poll -- they have more like 40/27/27 in Ontario. The subsample for that province is about 1000 voters, which is a non-trivial cross-tab.

Right now, I suspect the momentum even in Ontario is orange, so I don't think that will happen, but it's quite conceivable.

[ Parent ]
Only one poll had them that high
It was probably the Nanos poll about a week ago, had them at 46%, the next day at 41%, and now down to 36%  -- either a lot of movement or, more likely, an outlier (since no one else had it). Everyone else has them at between 33% and 41%.

(There was also a Compas poll yesterday that had them at 48% in Ontario, but it also showed them at 47% nationally - EVERYONE is dismissing that as a huge outlier, and the company conducting it has very partisan ties and a bad record.)

Nonetheless, the Conservatives will probably be at about +/- 40% in Ontario, and most polls have the NDP and the Liberals splitting the rest about evenly (with 3-6% for the Greens, which I expect to go down a little further at the polls - their number usually does).

The risk in Ontario is that the Liberal drop/NDP rise will allow the Conservatives to take a bunch of Liberal seats, especially on the outskirts of Toronto.

What matters (and is impossible to get from these results) is the geographic distribution of the vote between various ridings. If the losses by the Liberals are across the board, then that works in the Conservatives' favour. But there is at least some evidence to suggest that the Liberals are holding their own in some of the suburban Toronto territory where the NDP is close to very vote challenged, while the NDP gains are coming from industrial areas in southern Ontario, the urban core of Toronto, around Ottawa, and up North. If that is the case, the votes would be distributed more efficiently, and not work as much to the Conservatives' advantage.

But the polls are in a huge state of flux in Ontario -- in the last 5 days, the Conservatives have ranged from 34% to 46%, the NDP from 21% to 34%, and the Liberals from 21% to 36%. That kind of movement and uncertainty, coupled with the complexity of multi-party dynamics in 106 very diverse Ontario ridings, means no one can say for certain WTF is going to happen in Ontario. It could make a great night for the NDP, or could allow the Conservatives to walk away with a much greater number of seats than their numbers and campaign deserve.


[ Parent ]
Wikileaks and Party Leaders
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

Among the revelations included in the diplomatic documents are accounts of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's "vindictive pettiness," Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's "lack of energy and hands-on leadership," and New Democrat Leader Jack Layton's "mouse of a party."

A cable from March 2009 that is classified as confidential states the Bloc Québécois is "well-entrenched" and plays a "spoiler role" against future Liberal or Conservative majority governments.

Calls from Radio-Canada/CBC to the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa, where many of the cables originated, were not immediately returned.

A 10-page brief by officials in the U.S. Embassy in Canada's capital describes Harper's governing style in detail.

It calls him a "master political strategist" whose reputation was left "somewhat tattered" after his 2008 attempt to abolish public financing for all political parties.

The cable was written a month after Harper prorogued Parliament to avoid the fall of the government on a budget-related confidence vote.

"Relying on an extremely small circle of advisers and his own instincts, he has played the game of high-stakes, partisan politics well, but his reputation for decisiveness and shrewdness has been tarnished by a sometimes vindictive pettiness," says the cable dated Jan. 2, 2009.

The document also notes that despite years in the political sphere, Harper "remains an enigma to most Canadians [including many Conservatives]."

It also includes references to Harper's controlling ways within the party. According to the document, a minister of state confessed privately to a U.S. Embassy official that he "did not 'dare' to deviate from his preapproved text," despite events having "overtaken his speech."

Citing discussions with Conservative caucus members, the document says the members said they were "often out of the loop on the prime minister's plans" and many senior Tories said they were stunned to hear about the plan to ban public financing of political parties.

The lengthy cable also critiques Harper for concentrating heavily on short-term election planning, giving the government a "sometimes improvisational air."

Another cable dated March 23, 2009, speaks to strains between the Conservatives and Quebec following the prime minister's attacks on the Liberal-NDP coalition pact, which alienated many Quebec voters.

"PM Harper reportedly blames Quebec Premier Jean Charest for the Conservatives' failure to win a parliamentary majority," the cable says.

It also says Conservative Party insiders "repeatedly chafed" at the lack of obvious talent within the pool of Quebec's Conservative MPs, leaving important portfolios to "less-than-obvious choice MPs."

A number of cables also weigh in on the state of the Liberal Party and Ignatieff.

A document from early 2010 says the Liberal party's "muted" response to Harper's prorogation of Parliament suggested a "lack of energy and hands-on leadership," noting that Ignatieff reportedly remained on vacation in France.

"The Liberals face a tough road ahead if they hope to beat the Conservatives in the next federal election - whether in 2010 or 2011," says the unclassified cable dated Jan. 5, 2010.

Other cables cite conversations with former Liberal Party national director Rocco Rossi, who told U.S. Embassy officials that Ignatieff didn't really listen to advisers.

"He knows his own mind, and the only person whose opinion he really cares about is his wife Zsuzsanna," the cable quotes Rossi as saying.


I'll take a wild crack at it...
Conservative - 131
New Democrats - 111
Liberal - 54
Bloc Quebecois - 12

Now, let's see how wrong I am...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

I think...
Most of us might be negatively surprised that the Conservatives will gain seats even as they win a lower amount of toe popular vote that they did in 2008.
It is really amazing to me how UK, and Canada's election format is so anti-democratic. I wonder of Austria, and New Zealand are the same way.
[ Parent ]
New Zealand is not
It's mixed-member proportional (MMP) here, which leads to much better proportional representation. I believe the switchover from FTFP came just a few years ago, though.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Australia is better
They have a form of instant runoff voting in place for their elections, and the senate uses proportional representation (at the state, not federal level). But they have the same problem that we have with the senate; every state gets the same number of senators (six) no matter what the population of the state is. The Australian senate is really more like the American senate than the British or Canadian upper houses in a number of ways.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Australia
Is probably the most rightwing electorate in the English speaking world after the US, and the only one comparable to it.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Really?
I know they had a legitimate racist party (One Nation) in the 90's which quickly imploded upon itself. Though I guess with Tony Abbott leading the Coalition who makes John Howard look like a moderate in comparison you might be right. I was still surprised that Pauline Hanson was able to get as close as she did to winning a seat in the NSW Legislative Council last month.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
..
Sorry, but I have to correct you on that.

MMP is far superior to the mix of systems Australia uses. Where MMP delivers nearly perfectly proportional representation, Australia uses a far more disproportionate system for their lower house, which is the same as what's being proposed in the UK. The Australian Green Party got around ~15% of the vote in the lower house elections, yet only managed to win one seat. In NZ however, ~7% of the vote for our Greens = 7% of the seats.

On the topic of most rightwing electorates I'd say Australia is definitely up there with the States, the Australian Labor Party is probably about as neoliberal as most Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
I wonder
will the ALP lose its left wing base to the Greens eventually? Especially after they knifed Kevin Rudd who despite being part of the Labor right was probably one of the more progressive PM's in recent years. They are definitely not the party of the socially liberal and the unionists anymore. And the fact Labor premiers in Queensland and New South Wales went on a privatization spree of public assets these last two years. Though I guess you can't blame the ALP for tacking to the center, since the path to government runs through redneck country in Queensland and Western Australia. There's only so many seats you can win in New South Wales.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I think they're trying to bring Rogernomics to Australia...
But the problem is, National in the 1980s in New Zealand had shifted far enough to the left that there was space on the right (fiscally/economically) for Labour to outflank them.

The Liberals in Australia are arguably further right than ever - so Labour there has squished itself into a middle that barely exists, leaving a lot of angry left-wingers on the sidelines.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Man
if the ALP doesn't find a way to close the gap in the polls against an Abbott led Coalition in 2 years, I shutter to think what would happen to Australia if in the words of Paul Keating, this "intellectual nobody" (Abbott) is given the keys to the lodge. Though Labor might not be able to recover in time from the massacre they suffered in NSW last month. Though hopefully memories of the Iemma/Rees/Keneally Labor state government will of faded by then. It doesn't help whatever was left of the Labor party there anointed John Robertson as opposition leader. The bright side is that the dye has been cast on the carbon tax. Gillard can't back out now unless she wants to lose the support of Bob Brown and the 8 other Greens in the senate.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
You're a Kiwi?
Hello! I'm a Kiwi too, at least until the end of next month.

And I agree, Australia has shifted dramatically to the right lately. What do you think Brash taking over ACT will do for Labour, if anything?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
hello!
Haha, yeah I am, I just read this site occasionally when I'm interested in US politics.

On the topic of rogernomics (reaganomics?) in Australia; the interesting thing is that like NZ, they also had a Labour government undergo significant neoliberal economic reform in the 1980's (& 1990's.) Unlike us though I think there's an argument to be made that Keating was a lot more pragmatic than we were in NZ, whereas we were intensely ideologically driven, and didn't really care about the consequences. He kept the unions involved on a somewhat equal footing with business & the government & I think this moderation made his reforms much more successful. That might be why Australians seem pretty happy with conservative economic management - given their wealth it seems to have worked alright for them.

As for Brash & Hone Harawira I think it's great; it actually means the election is going to be interesting. Before his announcement everybody thought we (Labour) were just going to sleepwalk to a 2008-level loss, but now we know the election isn't going to be as boring, and that we've actually got a chance of winning! Makes me more keen to go knock on doors etc in town.  

[ Parent ]
Just to clarify
I was saying that Australia's system is better than the pure FPTP system in Canada or the UK. I agree that MMP is better than the Australian system.

Male, VA-08
[ Parent ]
Last Polls
Nanos:

Is out:

Con 37.1%
NDP 31.6
Lib 20.5

http://www.nanosresearch.com/e...

Quebec: NDP 39 Bloc 24 Con 19 Lib 12
Ontario: Con 39 - NDP 29 - Lib 28
BC: Con 41 - NDP 28 - Lib 24

Ekos:
Con 35
NDP 32
Lib 20

Quebec NDP 40 Bloc 23 Lib 15 Con 15
Ontario Con 40 NDP 27 Lib 27
BC Con 36 NDP 36 Lib 15

I am going with:

Con 142
NDP 97
Lib 51
Bloc 17
Green 1

Tories pick up 8-9 seats in Ontario but lose that number in Quebec and BC. Ending about where they are. If Nanos is right about Quebec they probably hold their ground there and do 2-4 seats better.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

Worth also noting
That the Sunday samples were very good for the Conservatives in both. The NDP was tied in the Saturday samples.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
Ekos final numbers just released
Frank Graves just released his final numbers, including results of calls from this afternoon.

He is saying:

CPC 33.9%
NDP 31.2%
LPC: 21%
Green: 6%
Bloc: 6.4%

This is actually a little tighter than the numbers he released this morning, so sounds like today's numbers were better for the NDP (but very marginally).

He also looked at those with firm voting intentions:

CPC 34%
NDP: 31.6%
LPC: 20.8%
Green: 5.9%
Bloc: 6.4%

For all the talk that Conservatives are more likely to vote, the NDP actually makes up 3/10ths of a percent with this group, so the NDP vote seems pretty damn motivated.

--

He offers the seat projections as follows:

CPC: 130 to 146
NDP: 103 to 123
LPC: 36 to 46
Bloc: 10 to 20
Green: 1

-------------------------      

Regional breakdowns

British Columbia (36 seats)

CPC: 35.3%
NDP  37.4%
LIB: 14.7%
Green: 9.7%

(This is huge if it is true, there are a lot of potentially close NDP/CPC races in BC, and the NDP has run behind the CPC up until now...)

Alberta (28 seats)

CPC: 58.5%
NDP: 17.5%
LPC:  13.4%
Green: 8.0%

Saskatchewan/Manitoba (28 seats)

CPC: 41.5%
NDP: 32.3%
LPC: 18.0%
Green: 7.6%

Ontario  (106 seats)

CPC: 39.6%
NDP: 26.5%
LPC: 28.2%
Green: 5.5%

Quebec (75 seats)

CPC:  14.3%
NDP:  38.3%
LPC:  14.6%
Green: 4.2%
Bloc: 26.6%

Atlantic Canada (32 seats)

CPC: 25.7%
NDP: 40.1%
LPC: 28.1%
Green: 4.1%

Wow
We're seeing none of the burnout that killed the LibDems in the UK last time. On the contrary, the momentum of the NDP hasn't even slowed down over the weekend.

This could be a huge, game-changing election.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
And I think the death of Bin Laden should help the NDP
Will at least a few Canadians think "time to get out of Afghanistan"
[ Parent ]
I don't know how much it will move the needle...
And there's a chance it could vindicate Prime Minister Harper in some voters' eyes. But then again, it could prompt voters to think, "Well, the only reason I voted Conservative is because they're strong on defense, but now that bin Laden's dead, there's no reason not to vote for the party I prefer on domestic issues..."

I suspect it's a wash.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I think it's definitely in the NDP's favor that the election is tomorrow - I think part of the reason the Lib Dems got whacked so badly (they lost seats in 2010) is because the Tory press had a lot more time to go after them on issues like Immigration, Euroskepticism etc  
[ Parent ]
The BC numbers are huge,
but I really wonder about the numbers in Ontario.  
[ Parent ]
There's
chatter that Gilles Duceppe, leader of the Bloc could lose his seat tomorrow. Now that would be the icing on the cake for the NDP if that happens.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ca...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

I think Duceppe is going to lose
I used to live in that riding, and friends tell me they are convinced it is going to happen. Folks I know who have voted Bloc forever are switching, and telling me that their friends are doing the same.

The neighbourhoods in Laurier - Sainte Marie are tailor made for the NDP -- the Gay Village and the bohemian Plateau. It is a self-consciously progressive area, full of academics, students, creative types, etc... Think San Francisco, but a lot colder...

Gilles is popular in the riding, but folks think he is yesterday's man - they are climbing on board the NDP bandwagon. (Duceppe isn't helped by the fact that almost 30% of the riding isn't Francophone...they'll almost all vote against him, and the Liberal and Conservative campaigns are non-existent to take their votes).

It will be a very close race for his seat, and he could pull it off, but I don't think it will happen.

On the other hand, he probably would prefer to lose his seat instead of getting re-elected and having to go back to Ottawa as leader of a caucus that is at least cut in half and is going to be considered pretty irrelevant both in Ottawa and in Quebec.  

[ Parent ]
Beautiful
I have nothing against Quebecois sovereignty, if that's what they want, as long as it's handled well - but I find the Bloc's attitude incredibly off-putting.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Yep
Basically they're a giant pustule on the ass of Quebec.  Can't do much until they're gone.  I really, really want them to be annihilated, and for Quebecois to get their concerns aired through federal, reasonable parties.


21,Democrat, NY-02, male
[ Parent ]
The Bloc has been useful
They are not a "giant pustule on the ass of Quebec."

In a province where at least 40% of the population consistently favours some form of sovereignty, it is hard to argue that only federalists should contest federal elections and represent them in Ottawa.

In the aftermath of Meech, the Bloc have given voice to the frustrations and aspirations of a large segment of the Quebec public.

In many ways the Bloc has been a progressive force in Canadian politics as a whole, especially under Duceppe -- their stands on issues like marriage equality, militarism, women's rights, arts funding, and countless other issues have been at least as good - or better at times - than the NDP's, and their presence on the federal scene has helped push the Canadian consensus leftward. In 2008 the Bloc deserves credit for denying Stephen Harper a majority government - he was headed for one, when the Bloc orchestrated a brilliant response in Quebec to Harper's plan to cut cultural funding, and the Bloc stopped the Harper surge in Quebec and held him to a minority.

I'm not saying their record is spotless. Far from it. They have all too often been willing to prop up Harper's government in return for parochial pay-offs for Quebec. They sometimes gives voice to more xenophobic anti-immigrant sentiments, especially in terms of accommodation issues around religious minorities, and they still include some nasty right wing nationalists along with their more predominate progressive leadership.

But a party that started 20 years ago in an "emergency" response to Meech Lake doesn't necessarily make sense on a more permanent basis in federal politics. In many ways, the party has outlived their usefulness.

Separatism is not going to disappear - it is a permanent fact of life in Quebec - just like in the Basque country, Catalonia, Scotland, Tibet, Kurdistan, Tamils in Sri Lanka. Far better that it have peaceful electoral expression than the violent outbreaks and terrorism seen in other places (and in Quebec - I'm old enough to remember the FLQ crisis and the reality of Canadian troops on the streets of Montreal and the War Measures Act. Trust me, that is not something we want repeated).

The argument that many progressive separatists are making in favour of voting for the NDP isn't giving up on independence - it is that the fight for sovereignty properly takes places in Quebec, not in Ottawa. As long as Quebec is still part of Canada, it makes more sense to actually have a chance to create a better life for Quebecers and all Canadians by brining social democratic ideals into power in Ottawa.  An NDP sweep of Quebec would not mean that suddenly Quebec voters have adopted federalism en masse, but rather that they have decided to park their votes with a progressive federal party to see if it gets them better results than the Bloc has delivered.

The Bloc may lose this election, but the fact is that the next provincial government in Quebec is very likely to be the Parti Quebecois, committed to sovereignty. There will probably be another referendum at some point. That's simply life in Quebec.

In my view, there is a far greater chance for Quebec to ultimately decide that it has a place in Canada if they see a federal government that shares their social, cultural and political progressive values. There are extremely complex structural issues about federal/Quebec powers that don't have simple solutions and that will remain a challenge for whatever party is in power. In a globalising world, the fight for local autonomy and control is not going to go away -- but as the EU, Scottish devolution, Spanish regional autonomy measures, and similar steps prove, there may also be creative new models for political systems that simultaneous promote greater integration while respecting and strengthening local "nations."

You can disagree with the Bloc and the PQ about their hope for a sovereign Quebec, but dismissing the aspirations of a huge portion of the Quebec population as a "pustule on the ass" and calling for "annihilation" is fundamentally anti-democratic and anti-progressive.

[ Parent ]
Strongly agreed
Quebeqois were second class citizens in their own province before the PQ. Now they have a leading role throughout Canada

The culture of Quebec was dying before the PQ. Now the culture of Quebec is alive and well, with hope for a permanent future.

However, the threats to Quebec continue, in the fears of English-speaking Canadians, the fears of people who hate the thought of French on their cereal boxes, the fears of people who don't want to learn another language to be important in their own country.

Yes, there are extremes to the PQ and BQ. The one that gets me most is the way they treat allophones, something that resembles what Republican xenaphobes want to do to immigrants here.

While they've won a lot of battles, the suggestion that they are a pain in the whatever, or even just plain "obsolete" is wrong --

it's like how many Republicans think of the Union movement, also just plain wrong.

[ Parent ]
At the expense
Of making others second class citizens. This is exactly the argument behind a whole lot of abhorrent policies in Israel that discriminate against minorities, and even dissident Jewish groups.

(This is going to be a bit strong, but I had relatives who fled Montreal after the "Quiet Revolution" and as far as I am concerned the PQ is as bad the French National Front or the most far-right anti-immigrant groups in the US)

They are also waging an economic war of brutality on their own people in the name of abstracts like "culture" and "identity". Montreal was the economic heart of Canada in 1970, and Toronto a backwater.

The fact is that as much as delusional loons in the PQ believed that they could alter reality, the fact is that there is no place on the North American continent for French-only speakers. Five million French speakers cannot provide opportunities to compete with 350 million English speakers no matter what laws you can pass. By forcing Immigrants and Franco-phone parents to send their children to French-only schools they are denying the parents freedom to allow their kids to have as many opportunities as possible, because if they actually allowed people "freedom" 80% of Quebec parents would chose English schools. they are also denying them the freedom to chose their own identity. How is this different than the southern states defining race as being 1/16th AA and then stripping you of rights? How are Anglo-phones and dissident Franco-phones not also second-class citizens? This is Jim Crow given toleration because the PQ decided to design their brand of racist nationalism to appeal to the counter-cultural left rather than the xenophobic right.

Thousands of Francophone parents have been forced to leave the province in order to give their children a chance at life, including several of my relatives. The PQ forced them out of their homes in the name of preserving the "culture of Quebec" on the backs of its children's future.

I do not see how a progressive or a liberal could ever support the structure the PQ has built. It may have done great things for "nationalism" but that is not a liberal or a democratic virtue. And it has come at the cost of freedom, and of economic opportunity for millions.

Would you support forcing English-only education on everyone in the US, even in private schools in order to maintain Sammuel Huntington's view of "Amercian culture"? If not how can you support what the PQ has done? And the Quebec Liberals are not off the hook either. It was Robert Bourissa who started this path.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
All of this
Without ever winning a majority of the vote. The electoral system in Quebec is rigged in favor of the rural seats that the PQ wins unless the PLP wins by 8-9%. If the US were run under the Quebec system, only LBJ would likely have won since 1944.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent
[ Parent ]
While I think your descriptions are over the top
I think you provide an excellent counterpoint, the problems associated with securing the rights of other minorities, within a larger separatist minority area.
[ Parent ]
You've crossed a line here
I believe much of what you wrote is wrong on multiple levels - factually, philosophically, and ethically - but I'm not going to engage you on that. Clearly you feel strongly about these issues - as evidenced by some of your vitriolic language - but some of us may feel strongly on the other side.

But quite simply, none of that matters.

The site is intended to be solely a "horse race" site, devoted to discussing the dynamics of elections from a strategic and numeric viewpoint (and Democratic I might add). There is a long tradition here that it is NOT the policy for debates about policy.

There are plenty of places on the web to have heated discussions about Quebec language policy, separatism, immigrant and minority rights, the place of French on the North American continent, and whether your Corn Flakes box should be bilingual. This is not one of those places. This is a site to analyse the dynamics of electoral politics.

As the site is about to migrate over to DKos, where it will be even harder to keep that goal focused and functional, I would hope that at least during the last days as a free standing website, we could all attempt to stick with those basic  rules that have served SSP quite well over time.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry About the Off-Topic
We should have a delete option. I got a bit carried away. Sorry about that.

Side-note and then back on topic - I have no problem with bilingualism. I do not believe Quebec is bilingual.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
While I think his comments were over the top
Especially the part about there being "no place for French in North America", there is some truth to it. The PQ basically replaced francophones as second-class citizens in Canada to anglophones and allophones being second-class citizens in Québec, except for the Western side of Montréal. The fact that they outlawed English private schools or English street signs or menus (unless the equivalent in French is there and more prominent) should exemplify that. Additionally, the 'Silent Revolution' is probably a good reason why Québec had such sluggish growth throughout the 70s and 80s, since that's what exoduses usually produce (although I'm no expert on the economic history of Québec by any means). Yes, before that period, many Canadian leaders (including, I recall, discussing it with FDR) tried to disperse francophones around Canada and try to strengthen anglophones in Québec, and it was wrong to do that. On the other hand, Bill 101 might've gone too far in the other direction.

That's why I think the discussion between Duceppe and Layton on it in the English Debate were interesting. Layton basically deflected any support for it, instead pointing to
supporting his own bill that would accommodate francophones in federal workplaces. Layton has to walk a tight rope here in the future, because he can't alienate English Canada to support Québec nationalism, but at the same time he'd like those soft-nationalists who traditionally voted for the BQ to vote for the NDP, but on substance, I think the tightrope is probably the best policy position to begin with.

I think the problem with the issue of sovereignty right now, is most Quebeckers, including sovereigntists themselves, to want to be dragged back into the trenches against basically the rest of Canada and the world. I think this is especially acute among younger Quebeckers, as they're much more likely to communicate to non-Quebeckers online (be it American or Canadian, most ridicule their position of separation) or watch/listen to more widespread entertainment in English. That, and I'm pretty sure that in this economic environment that sovereignty is the last thing on their minds.

[ Parent ]
My Comment on French In NA
Went too far, and came off wrong. I was not referring to it being a bad thing per se, but that in a globalized economy, being French-only in North America is a huge disadvantage for anyone who wants to be successful economically outside of Quebec, or even in higher ranks within the province. In effect, I was trying(excessively rudely, and I apologize) that the PQ was crippling the career prospects of the province's children in the name of abstract ideology. After all, even with the treatment French speakers received prior to the Quiet Revolution, the real enemy was never the Canadian government, but the market.

I am quite worried about the next election. Pauline Marois wants to strengthen Bill 101, because it is failing(ie. young Quebeckers are picking up English from media and the internet) and one of her ideas is to deny the franchise to anyone who doesn't pass a French fluency test. Also she wants to extend the requirement of French predominance to small businesses and go after McGill.

The good news is the Liberals have been closing. They are down mid-single digits now. Charest has to go though, and there is no one else.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Let me tell
a story of why the PQ exists.

I started going to Montreal a fair amount in 1970.  The vast majority of the signs were in English.

In a town that was mostly French.

There is a history in Quebec that gave the PQ their birth.

I think in a way they are nuts, but I understand why they exist.

[ Parent ]
"Think San Francisco, but a lot colder..."
Not even the North Pole is colder than San Francisco...
[ Parent ]
During
the winter ya, but usually our weather up here is foggy and mild. Though we get a few weeks of intense heat during the end of summer/beginning of fall.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
"The coldest winter I ever spent is the summer I spent in San Francisco"

[ Parent ]
Good
ole Mark Twain for you there.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Actually
[ Parent ]
Come to Montreal in February
Turn around a corner on a -25 day and get hit in the face with an icy wind whipping off the St. Lawrence River through an urban wind tunnel.

Then spend 45 minutes digging your car out of the 30 cm of snow the night before, or wait outside at the bus stop on the corner after midnight for 20 minutes.

It will make you think fondly of those bone-chilling damp San Francisco days as those they were some kind of balmy Caribbean vacation.

Trust me, I've done both...San Francisco cold can seep deep, but  Montreal wins that battle hands down.  

[ Parent ]
I've heard Kyoto's cold described as bone-chilling
if San Fran is the same way, I think I can survive that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Grew up in Burlington, VT
you can guess why I live where I do now.

I have spent a lot of time in San Fran - anyone who compares SF to the bone chilling -25 you get in Burlington is crazy.  You face freezes in a minute, your hands get cold dispite your gloves.  Your car may not start.

[ Parent ]
From your lips
to God's ears.  Lets hope so.
[ Parent ]
The BQ turnout problem
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois's lists of supporters now may be junk: The party canvassed to identify its voters before Jack Layton's sudden, surprising rise after the April 13 French leaders debate. Now, the party fears that if it urges those on its supporters' list to go to the polls, it will be getting out the vote for Jack Layton.

What happens when canvassing for likely supporters becomes obsolete in just a few days -- fear enters the minds of people doing GOTV.

That's what happens during a wave election
Making their problem worse, they aren't just losing a lot of their voters, they are losing a ton of their volunteers as well.

A case in point, the riding of Hochelega. It is an east end Montreal riding, overwhelmingly French, working class with a growing gay and "yuppie" population. It is very left wing.

Two years ago the popular incumbent Bloc MP Real Menard, a progressive very popular openly gay MP, stepped down to be elected mayor of a borough of Montreal.

In the special election to replace him, the Bloc leadership forced the local riding association to accept the nomination of a "star" candidate, Daniel Paille, a long time corporate leader and establishment figure, and definitely not on the progressive side of the spectrum on economic issues. (Vaguely akin to how many Democrats in the US view Rubin or Summers...). A progressive challenged him for the nomination, but was shut down by party official. In the very low tunout special election that followed, Paille won, although the NDP ran a spirited campaign and placed second.

This year, the former President of the Hochelega Bloc association and a former assistant to Menard wrote a well-publicized open letter urging Bloc supporters to switch to the NDP. Word on the street is that Paille's campaign can't get the usual party activists to do the canvassing and other work they normally do -- because they've all switched to the NDP. The former riding association president was quoted in one French newspaper as saying that 80% of the people he knew from the party are now supporting the NDP.

A similar thing is happening across other parts of Montreal, in ridings like Rosemont, Jeanne- Le Ber, Papineau. I'm heard the same thing is happening in ridings in the Gatineau region, in Quebec City, in Lac St-Jean, and in the eastern townships. Bloc rallies have been languid, sparsely attended affairs, their canvassing and visibility pushes have been sporadic, and their poll numbers keep getting more depressed.

At this point, the political class in Quebec is talking about the Bloc trying to "save the furniture" - admitting that the house itself is going to burn down, but trying to salvage at least a few seats. That's why they trotted out Parizeau (a controversial figure in Quebec to say the least), they are trying to make sure they motivate and turn out the 25-30% of Quebec voters who are hard core separatists and use that support to save as many seats as possible.  

If the Bloc really drops from 39% to 23%  (or 25% or 26%), that means that 40% of their voters have switched -- swings like that are almost unheard of in any election. When your base deserts you en masse, when your volunteers won't show up, it becomes impossible to do GOTV and so any perceived field advantage you might have had becomes irrelevant.

What a nightmare for a political organizer to have to face. It makes the kinds of challenges Democrats faced in 2010 or Republicans in 2006/8 look like child's play.

[ Parent ]
Amazing that such swings are possible
we talk of 1994 and 2006 as wave elections, but there's really nothing like having nearly half of your voters desert you for another party.  Bloc headquarters must be a pretty depressing place right about now.
[ Parent ]
Check out 1993
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

The Progressive Conservatives went from 169 seats to 2.  

[ Parent ]
Poor Kim Campbell
The first female PM, and got used badly by the good ole boys who set her up for a real fall.  Mulroney's sleaze made it impossible for any PC to win, most of Mulroney's Quebec members left the party to form the Bloc (which swept Quebec at a higher number than they ever achieved), and the hard core right wing of the party rallied around the Reform party and swept the West. It wasn't until Stephen Harper and his buddies engineered a merger (some would claim hostile takeover) between the Canadian Alliance (aka Reform) and old Progressive Conservative parties was the right side of the spectrum in Canada able to be competitive nationally.

One irony of that election - of the 2 Progressive Conservatives to survive and get elected, one was a young MP from Quebec - Jean Charest. He went on to lead the PCs, rebuilding a small part of their support, and now is the Liberal Party Premier of Quebec. Go figure.

The NDP was reduced to under 10% of the vote and didn't even win enough seats to be recognised as an official party in Parliament. So comebacks can always happen.

--

I've gotten to know Campbell peripherally in the years since that election - she's  actually pretty decent. In the US, she'd be a mainstream Democrat, politics along the lines of a Klobuchar or Bill Clinton. She's been doing a lot of
good work on issues around global women's empowerment, good governance and fair elections, global health, etc.


[ Parent ]
Good lord
And so they went the way of the Whigs...amazing that just 9 years earlier, the Progressive Conservatives had racked up a ridiculous 211 seats in Parliament.
[ Parent ]
harper
must be a real dickhead personality wise(if his party falters tonight, i can't wait for the commentors on cbc trashing him)
For people following the results riding by riding
Results should start being reported 10p eastern

Elections Canada results should be here http://www.elections.ca/conten...

308 has a projected results page, based on their 143/60/78/27 seat projection (C/L/N/B), http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MZAv...

If it's going to be a good night for the NDP, you may see it first in a flip of Nova Scotia's Central Nova riding. And if the NDP is to break 100 seats, they need 45%+ there.

Won't results be leaked beforehand?
I remember reading 6:30 Newfie time/5:00 Eastern for the first poll closings, is that right?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Maybe. Canadian courts have been hard-nosed on Canadian citizens
But there are Tweeters who've vowed to violate the law in that area, perhaps some of them are Americans.
ref http://www.wired.com/epicenter...

At least for now, I've got this going to monitor related tweets

http://www.google.com/search?q...

[ Parent ]
8:30p Newfie time, I think (4p Pacific), n/t

[ Parent ]
Nope
Elections Act: Section 329 - No person shall transmit the result or purported result of the vote in an electoral district to the public in another electoral district before the close of all of the polling stations in that other electoral district.

Potential fine: $26,000.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Wo...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

Some things will certainly be leaked, but we definitely won't see American-style mass reporting of province-by-province results.

[ Parent ]
Polls close at 8.30 NFLD time - 7 pm eastern
In Eastern time, the polls across the country close at:

NFLD:      7  PM          (8.30 NFLD)
Atlantic:  7.30 PM    (8.30 Atlantic)
Eastern    9.30 PM  
Central    9.30 PM    (8.30 Central - 7.30 Saskatchewan Central Standard)
Mountain: 9.30 PM   (7.30 Mountain)
Pacific:     10:00 PM  (7.00 Pacific)

--

It is illegal under Canadian law to "transmit" result before the polls close in all parts of the country.  People have been prosecuted in past elections for doing so.

Not much historically manages to leak out. While the votes are being counted in Atlantic Canada, the parties and media obviously know what is going on, but not much ends up leaking out. Some people have talked about a Twitter or internet campaign to disseminate early results, but I doubt there will be much leaking.

What it does mean is that when the broadcast networks start reporting results nationally  at 10 pm, the bulk of the votes will already be counted in the 32 ridings in NFLD, NS, PEI and NB, so they will come on air with some strong indicators of what is happening in those races. But since results in Canada tend to be highly regionalised, it isn't necessarily easy to draw many conclusions from those early numbers. But the staggered poll times mean that other than the Atlantic, there is only 30 minutes difference in closing time between BC and everything else west of NB - so significant early numbers won't come until close to midnight (eastern).

To the best of my knowledge, there will be no exit polls for the media to report. I don't believe they are illegal in Canada, but they simply historically haven't been done, and I haven't heard that any media outlet is planning them this year. So you've got to wait for the hard numbers.

Finally, Canadian elections are done using paper ballots, hand counted. So it takes some time to count them, lots of procedures to go through in making sure numbers of ballots, etc all jibe. Most polling stations are fairly small (a few hundred votes at most), but it still takes time to do it.

A long, very interesting night ahead.


[ Parent ]
Prank calls misdirecting voters
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

While not specific, the CBC report suggests that the objects of the pranks are liberal voters -- and the automated calls are sending voters to wrong polling places

CPC 128; NDP 103; LPC 54; BQ 20; Green 1; Ind 2
Here's my prediction, based on some combo of number crunching, riding by riding examination, polls, gut instinct and a little bit of hope

I've got to admit that there is incredible amount of uncertainty going into this election, all of the permutations of vote splits, 3 way races, 4 way races, strategic voting, efficiency of votes, and wildly divergent polls for some regions make it all like some very elaborate version of 3D chess....

Talk about moving targets. The Conservatives could easily have 20 more seats or 15 less, the NDP could have 20 more or 20 less, while the Liberals could go as low as 35 or as high as 70. The Bloc could pick up another 10 or so, or just as likely, fall down to as few as 12 seats.

For what it is worth, the 2 independents I am predicting are both conservatives -- Helena Geurgis in Simcoe Grey (who was kicked out of caucus by Harper, so would be rough if he needed her to form a government), and Tim Ford in Alberta, who is pissed at the incumbent conservative and has been campaigning for 2 1/2 years since narrowly losing to him last time out.

Overall:

CPC:  128
NDP: 103
LPC: 54
Bloc: 20
Green: 1
Independent: 2

----

Newfoundland & Labrador:

CPC:    1
NDP:    2
LPC:    4

-----------------------------------------------

Nova Scotia

CPC:   1
NDP:   6
LPC:    3

----------------------------------------------

New Brunswick

CPC:   7
NDP:  1
LPC:   2

__________________________________________________________

PEI

CPC: 2
LPC: 2

__________________________________________________________

Quebec

CPC:      6
NDP:    39
LPC:    10
Bloc:   20

__________________________________________________________

Ontario

CPC:   49
NDP:  29
LPC:  27
Ind:     1

__________________________________________________________

Manitoba

CPC:   9
NDP:   4
LPC:    1

__________________________________________________________

Saskatchewan

CPC:   10
NDP:    3
LPC:     1

__________________________________________________________

Alberta

CPC:  25
NDP:   2
Ind:     1
__________________________________________________________

British Columbia

CPC:  16
NDP:  16
LPC:    3
Ind:     1

_________________________________________________________

North (Yukon, Western Arctic, Nunavit)

CPC: 1
NDP: 1
LPC:  1

(update 7) Rolling Canadian Election Discussion | 147 comments

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