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SSP Daily Digest: 4/29

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 29, 2011 at 8:04 AM EDT


Senate:

FL-Sen: Do you remember Craig Miller? I barely do. He's the wealthy former steakhouse exec who was the Republican Plan C in the FL-24 primary last year... and in an amusing bit of synchronicity, came in third, behind now-Rep. Sandy Adams and the batshit nuts Karen Diebel. Hoping to fail upward, Miller is now looking at the Senate race and plans to decide "within the next few weeks." I have no idea what he thinks he niche might be, and it's not clear to me that he has the money to overwhelm the field.

IN-Sen, IN-Gov: Former Rep. Tim Roemer says he's stepping down as ambassador to India. Could this presage a return to Hoosier politics? I'm skeptical, as Dems already have legit candidates lining up for both marquee statewide races. (And for what it's worth, an unnamed source told The Hill last month that Roemer wasn't likely to run for Senate.)

MA-Sen: This is just weird. Despite repeatedly saying he isn't interested in running for Senate, Deval Patrick somehow keeps finding himself talking about the subject. This time, he said that he had talked with the President about other jobs, but wouldn't say whether Obama had asked him to run against Scott Brown. Patrick again said he doesn't want to run, and added: "I would say no to the president of the United States."

ND-Sen: When the Club for Growth takes aim at an otherwise top-tier Republican candidate, you know you have premium-grade cat fud ready to be served. Le Club's target now is freshman Rep. Rick Berg, who went from a seemingly distant possibility to not-running-but-virtual-frontrunner status almost instantly a week ago. They're accusing Berg of being insufficiently pro-dystopia, i.e., not supporting enough cuts to federal government spending. I really hope they can find a dog... er... cat for this fight.

NV-Sen: Sometimes PPP deliberately polls for the lulz, and sometimes, the lulz find them. In this case, it's the latter: Tom Jensen's band of merry robodialers found Dean Heller beating Sharron Angle in a hypothetical GOP primary by a score of... LOL... 84-8. ("El Exigente, what more could you want?" "Their names.") Meanwhile, on the Dem side, where there does appear to be an actual primary, Rep. Shelley Berkeley leads wealthy attorney Byron Georgiou by a 65-8 margin. Good times.

PA-Sen: Apparently, there's two things Quinnipiac won't do: a) release sample compositions and b) test incumbents against hypothetical opponents whose names don't start with "Generic." Anyhow, Sen. Bob Casey has inched up to a 46-34 lead against "the Republican candidate." He was 45-35 two months ago.

UT-Sen: Speaking of the Club for Growth, they just put out their 2010 scorecard, and Orrin Hatch's numbers really demonstrate the Club's power. Despite a lifetime score of 74% (30th among Senators in office last year), Hatch managed to rack up a 97% rating last year, tying him with several other Republicans for third place. What a difference a sword of Damocles makes.

VA-Sen: Hmm. Ultra-wingnut Del. Bob Marshall's 2008 campaign manager just got hired by George Allen... and the dude didn't even tell his old boss first. Marshall's been looking at a possible Senate run, and I think he's the best hope (albeit not a great hope) we have of knocking off Allen in the GOP primary, but it's not clear what impact this will have on his plans. One positive tea-leaf: In response to the news, Marshall said, "You can tell who the candidates are not by where the consultants go, but where the volunteers go."

Gubernatorial:

PA-Gov: Uhh... did Gov. Tom Corbett just say that state universities sitting atop the Marcellus Shale should plug their budget gap by allowing exploitation of the natural gas reserves beneath them? Why yes he did. If you aren't familiar with the deeply fraught issue of hydraulic fracturing (also known as "hydrofracking" or just "fracking"), this NYT piece is a good place to start. Fracking is a devastatingly poisonous method of extracting gas, and Pennsylvania is at the epicenter of the fracking debate. Indeed, the EPA is investigating a fracking spill that took place there just last week. UPDATE: Hah, sheez. Corbett literally lifted this idea from an episode of Saved by the Bell! NOT kidding! Click the link!

WV-Gov: Former Republican SoS Betty Ireland is finally out with her first TV ad, which I think has a weird soundtrack, odd staccato pacing, and (at least in the version her campaign posted to YouTube) crappy audio quality. I think she could definitely lose.

House:

AZ-06: Yesterday we noted that state House Speaker Kirk Adams was resigning his post. Later that day, he formally announced he was, as expected, running in the GOP primary in the open 6th CD. Retiring Sen. Jon Kyl immediately endorsed Adams, while Rep. Trent Franks endorsed Matt Salmon, who is also running for this post

NV-02: Roll Call's Kyle Trygstad does a nice job digging up some facts about a 1954 special election to replace Nevada Sen. Pat McCarran, who passed away in September of that year. (If you've ever flown to Vegas, that's the guy the airport is named after.) There was some legal wrangling as to whether a special election was actually required, but once the state Supreme Court ruled yes, the parties selected their nominees by committee, not primary. That could possibly serve as precedent as SoS Ross Miller decides whether state law requires that parties choose their candidates, but Nevada's current statutes were revised only a decade ago, so the McCarran case may not be applicable.

NY-23: A few weeks ago, the NRCC mocked a batch of miniscule radio ad buys by the DCCC and said: "At what point does a campaign committee blush when launching a 'paid advertising campaign?'" Apparently, that point must lie somewhere below $4,550, which is the amount the NRCC is spending on a tiny TV buy in Rep. Bill Owens' district. (It's some lame Pelosi-related attack.)

I'd also like to give some props to Steve Peoples of Roll Call for basically ignoring the contents of the ad and focusing on exactly what the NRCC is trying to accomplish here. I don't know if he wrote the headline, but it can't be what Republicans were hoping for: "NRCC Takes Turn With Small Ad Buy Targeting Earned Media." And in referring a radio ad against Rep. Mike Ross that we noted the other day, Peoples used the kind of language you might find on SSP, saying that the NRCC "convinced a local paper to write a story about the radio buy but refused at the time to disclose the size of the investment." (It turned out to be $2,550.) If you're going to write up a story like this, this is how it should be written.

Other Races:

IN-SoS: The GOP-held state legislature has backed off a bit on attempting to rewrite the law in order to get around the Charlie White mess. (If this is the first you're hearing of the whole saga, I would suggest checking out our IN-SoS tag.) The proposed new law would give the governor the power to appoint replacement officers only on a prospective basis, so it won't affect the White situation. However, the legislation will still prevent the GOP from losing their major-party status (which was keyed to the SoS race) if the worst happens.

NJ-St. Sen.: The legal wrangling over Democrat Carl Lewis's ballot eligibility has heated up quickly. Lewis has filed suits in both state and federal court, and a federal court judge has already ordered LG/SoS/Chris Christie goon Kim Guadagno to explain her decision booting Lewis from the ballot earlier this week. Lewis is still busy campaigning, and if he's ultimately declared eligible, I think all this rigmarole might wind up helping him, given that it's free media.

Redistricting:

Colorado: I'm guessing that Republicans are wishing state Sen. Greg Brophy hadn't cracked out of turn and admitted that proposed GOP maps had been deliberately "skewed to the right." That certainly won't help them when the entire matter winds up in court, which Republican state Rep. Don Coram acknowledged was inevitable anyway. In a bit worthy of Stephen Colbert, Lynn Bartels of the Denver Post writes: "Brophy said Republicans got nervous when they heard Democrats were pushing so-called competitive seats, which he said favor Democrats...." Ah, indeed, the facts do have a well-known liberal bias.

Connecticut: According to the Greenwich Time, Dem state House Speaker Christopher Donovan has his eye on Rep. Chris Murphy's open 5th CD, and would very much like to have the blue stronghold of Bridgeport drawn into it. That would remove it from Rep. Jim Himes's district, but if you look at a map, it's rather hard to envision this happening without doing a lot of reshuffling. Of course, anything is possible, but given how minor CT's population deviations are, a serious reconfiguration of the map would seem to be uncalled for.

Indiana: The Hoosier State is poised to become the fourth to finalize a redistricting map. The Republican-held state legislature has given its approval to a new plan, which now goes to GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels for his signature.

Massachusetts: A seemingly clever bit of politics by Scott Brown, but there's a "but." Brown sent a letter to the state legislature's redistricting committee, advocating for a majority-minority congressional seat to be drawn in the Suffolk County region, and also to press for more maj-min districts in the state lege. Who knows whether the idiots in the legislature will listen to him, but Brown of course is simultaneously pushing for new district lines which will ultimately favor Republicans (by packing minorities) and, more importantly, he gets to look like he's protecting minority interests, all at no cost to himself.

Here's the "but": Brown doesn't seem to know what he's talking about. Rep. Mike Capuano, who would be most affected by Brown's proposal, fired back, saying his 8th CD already is majority-minority. It's about 54.5% "white" according to the Census, but that includes Hispanics who also identify as white, so the non-Hispanic white %age is almost certainly below 50%. (Some 19% of 8th CD residents identify as Hispanic, of any race.) Oops.

Nevada: I'm not going to get into this one in too much detail (my brain can only hold so much redistricting-related information), but Nevada Republicans are now bitterly split over new maps that GOPers in the state Senate drew for the state Assembly. Why didn't the Assembly draw its own maps? They did, but the morons who drew them were advised not to release them because lawyers thought they didn't comply with the VRA. Meanwhile, Dems in both chambers worked together to release a joint set of plans. However, they still haven't released their congressional map. Anyhow, you can find more details under the "Related Documents" sections at both links.

Oklahoma: Unsurprisingly, the map that the state House unanimously approved appears ready to sail through the state Senate, too. Shira Toeplitz suggested in her writeup (which is a few days old) that the new plan could be signed into law this week, but it hasn't actually been voted on by the full Senate as of this writing.

Texas: The cat fud is ready to fly in Texas redistricting, where ruthless Republican leaders are prepared to run roughshod over their own incumbents in the aims of preserving and maximizing their advantage to the greatest extent possible. In other words, they're staying true to the spirit of Tom DeLay. In the abstract sense, it's a ruthlessness I admire, and I wish Dems would adopt it. In any case, I wouldn't be surprised if the final maps pass in spite of a lot of GOP defections - though maybe a few horse heads in a few beds will solve that problem.

Virginia: I'm glad to see that Republicans in the state Senate are as happy to act like sheep as Democrats in the state House. The Democrats' new map passed yesterday by a 32-5 margin. Reading the linked article really makes me feel like this whole thing has been a grand kabuki, with Gov. Bob McDonnell playing everyone - even members of his own party - like puppets. McDonnell simply had to show he could extract a price from Democrats, and so he has. However, I note that the congressional map is now completely untethered from the legislative maps. If Democrats agree to an 8-3 map now, well, fuck them. Once McDonnell signs the lege plans into law, there's no going back, and there's no reason at all not to force the courts to draw a federal map.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/29
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PA fracking
Sad thing is, the issue is already decided.  It's only going to increase over Corbett's term.  By the time 2014 comes around, western PA areas will be devasrated by the process.  And these areas in general supported Corbett, Toom and GOP state legislators in the 2010 elections.

Their funeral


23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Exactly
The natural gas people really don't seem to get that PA is not Texas or Louisiana.  They think they can just get away with this crap--and there's a hell of a backlash brewing.

When I was working in Philly, my experience was that folks out in the suburbs had already heard a surprising amount about it, and didn't like it.  I can't imagine it's getting any better.  (And that's in a part of the state well removed from the actual damage.)

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.


[ Parent ]
Tremendous hostility in upstate NY, too
There's a temporary moratorium in place right now, but it expires later this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cuomo do the wrong thing.

[ Parent ]
That's the problen
It's already too late.  3+ more years before Corbett is up, until then its steady as she goes.

[ Parent ]
Actually Save by the Bell sole the idea from the real life Beverly Hills High School
Which actually has oil wells on the campus. And yes this is the same Beverly Hills High School that was in inspiration for Beverly Hills 90210.

So the idea of a school with an oil or gas well on it is really not as far fetch as it sounds.

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[ Parent ]
don't forget the simpsons
springfield elementary had oil, until burns stole it out from under them (literally).  i wonder if corbett's planning on covering the dem parts of PA in perpetual darkness.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Was thinking the same
Politically, its quite brilliant, what Corbett is trying.  Cut your funding and then gives you a way out.  

Kind of reminds me of the old military strategy, en-circle the enemy on 3 sides, lay back on the 4th side and wait for the enemy to retreat through the "opening" on the 4th side, where they'll be ambushed by the regiment that hung back on the 4th side.

I doubt it will work, as college students in most locations are more liberal and likely more environmentally concerned than those in the PA electorate as a whole.  If the Penn State system decides against the fracking, Corbett thinks he has polticial cover to say "You had a chance to fix your budget, you decided against it."


[ Parent ]
Actually PA is pulling a Mr. Burns on NY
The natural gas in the Marcellus Shale is as much in NY as it is in PA. But since NY has a ban on fracking, PA is trying to get all the gas out and reap the windfall in revenue from its extraction before NY can get its act together and start extracting the gas. So in many ways what Corbett and PA is doing is a lot like what Mr. Burns did to Spingfield Elementry in that episode!

The ban on fracking in NY is just diverting the revenue from Marcellus Shale from NYS to PA.

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[ Parent ]
Um, there's a ban cause fracking is extremely polluting and destructive.
Why should NYS reap a profit while people in these regions suffer?  That's sadistic.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Yeah NY, get your act together!
stop not destroying the environment! geez.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Whoa....
Wasn't commenting on the pluses or minuses of fracking.

Just pointing out the politics of this. It's not like the Marcellus Shale wont be tapped. Its just going to be done in PA not in NY. (Just like Mr. Burns was able to suck all the oil from under Springfield elementry).

So NYS having a fracking ban is not stopping the gas from being taken out of the ground. It's just transporting the operations (and any revenue from it from NY to PA).

The politics of it is can positioning this as stealing the gas from under NYS help or hurt Corbett?

I'm not so sure this issue is as big an electoral loser as DavidNYC thinks.


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[ Parent ]
You're making less sense than in your last comment......
It sounds like you're trying to say there's a poltiical benefit with PA voters to be able to say "I'm pulling a fast one on those suckers in New York!"

This isn't a game, PA voters aren't trying to one-up New Yorkers.

But if that's not what you meant, then what did you mean?

I don't know this issue or current PA politics well enough to know if this is a serious issue with voters up there, but sure enough if people perceive their quality of life (e.g., health; economic livelihood through farming or otherwise; nearby home property values) is threatened by this, Corbett will pay a price for it.  A macroeconomic benefit to the state is not going to offset what voters perceive as a tangible threat to their well-being.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No but some NY media have been beating up NY pols over the ban
The NY Post (and yes I know its the Post) runs weekly articles like this one:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/o...

about it.

and in the WV the debate is about how best to capitalize on the windfall:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/...

Now whether or not it better to leave the Marcellus Shale alone is not an SSP topic.

But will local pols suffer from supporting it or opposing it is. Given the heat that David Patterson took over supporting the ban I dont think being in favor of fracking will hurt Corbett.  

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[ Parent ]
Well with no taxes
On the Marcellus shale and the eventual environmental issues, I'm not sure the revenue is all that real in net terms.  

And the job creation cited seems to not be enough to overcome it with more revenue.  Mineral/resource extraction is more machinery/land intensive than it is labor intensive.  And PA does not make a lot of the fracking equipment so the money spent on the equipment is likely going out of state.


[ Parent ]
Virginia
Here's the problem: the Republicans can just punt the Congressional map into 2012 if necessary, since it wouldn't hinder next year's elections. They can do this in the hope that they pick up the Senate this year.

In which case they can. . .draw a 8-3 map
A 9-2 map is no real threat at all. It's a joke!

I don't think Eric Cantor much likes the prospect of his district being compacted into Richmond, but that's a very real chance of that if this ends up in court.  


[ Parent ]
I think the point is
Democrats should push for something better than 8-3. 8-3 is what Republicans would draw on their own.

[ Parent ]
I don't disagree
However, the Republicans are unlikely to agree to anything else. So why give them what they want? Gerry Connolly may bellyache for a deal, but the truth is that they can't give him anything worse than what he already has.  

[ Parent ]
Not all 8-3 maps are equal
In the end I think this will be a fight over a set 8-3 partisan breakdown in '12, but both sides will be trying to make subtle changes to push the map more toward their favor later in the decade.

Specifically this goes to exactly how you draw/split Loudoun, Prince William & Fairfax counties between the 1st, 10th & 11th. Dems will want to keep the 10th competitive for whenever Wolf retires, GOP will  probably try to shore up the 2nd too and maybe the 5th slightly and perhaps create a minority majority district in NoVA to cut off a potential DoJ challenge to the 3rd/4th CDs

If I was leading the Dems I'd push hard to keep the 10th a Suburban vs exurban district (putting as much of Fairfax in as possible), ditto that to the 1st (or 7th?), and if you have to let the GOP shore up the 2nd & 5th you are (probably) playing with house money at that point since it would take another pretty amazing set of circumstance for either to fall into Dem hands again this decade.

So the GOP will want a lock solid 8-3 map, while the Dems will try to massage an 8-3 map that could be 6-5 (flipping the 10th & 1st or 7th) by the time we draw these again (and likely add another NoVA CD after 2020).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Also, McDonnell says he'll sign the revised bill
Because the big impediment to it being an acceptable map was apparently creating a compact district in Richmond. All the other ridiculous lines were maintained.

[ Parent ]
Except that we also gave up a new district
in Virginia Beach.  

[ Parent ]
To be fair, the VB district was winnable
but it was, at best, a swing district. The Richmond district would have been an automatic pickup.

[ Parent ]
The Dems were timid initially in the VB district
They could have made it even better.

But it's hard to understate the negative impact of giving up an opportunity district with an already narrow margin.  


[ Parent ]
On the bright side
It looks like we'll have an easier time retaining our Senate majority under the new lines.

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)

[ Parent ]
VA state senate seats to defend in November
2 Dem incumbents retire at the end of this session, according to a message earlier this term from Assemblyman David Englin:  

Senator Patsy Ticer  D-30 (Alexandria) and
Senator Mary Margaret Whipple  SD-31 (Arlington, Fairfax County) are retiring.

State Senator Chap Peterson (SD-34), whom SSP regulars will remember as the champion who retired GOP incumbent Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, who was married to Congressman (and disappointed Senate candidate) Jim Davis, observes in an e-mail to his mailing list today:

"In 1991, the Democrats drew the Senate lines, then lost twelve seats in the next three elections.  In 2001, the Republicans drew the lines and lost five seats (and their majority) by 2007.  There are no guarantees in this business."

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  


[ Parent ]
Tom Davis


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
What he failed to mention
was that all five of those seats were lost between 2006 and 2007. One really bad cycle will do that.

The new 31st went for Deeds with 56%. The new 30th went for Deeds with 59%. Short of 2011 turning out to be a terrible cycle (in which the Democrats will lose their majority anyway) with terrible nominees for those seats, they're not going to flip.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for linking that hydrofracking article
I knew plenty about the benefits of natural gas and understood the process of hydrofracking but was not well-acquainted with why exactly it is so controversial.

This knowledge shortfall probably has something to do with having learned about the process at a briefing hosted on Capitol Hill by a natural gas interest group when I was an intern. Naturally, they wouldn't mention what it can do to community water sources.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05


But I'm sure they mentioned its great benefits
Jobs related to NatGas (and the residual jobs related to these), American energy independence, helping the PA economy, blah blah blah.

I suppose at the end of the day the one-sided vipresentation is to be expected (its not like people post their worst photo at match.com either).  What bothers me is how much people bought into it and still believe its a savior.  

If you really want a sobering read, do some googling on farmers who leased their land fro fracking.  These people really got hosed, but having grown up on a dairy farm I wonder what theyw ere thinking trusting the energy industry in the first place.  I'm very conflicted about who is really to blame.


[ Parent ]
Ultimately,
conservation and renewables are the only long-term solution but in the meantime, while we're still pushing crap up smokestacks to screw our descendants, natural gas is about the least worst way we can do it. (Read up on oil shale sometime).

32, M, MI-6, Iconoclastic Leftist

[ Parent ]
Loving the cat fud in Arizona
And in Virginia! What clusterfucks!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

Himes would've lost without Bridgeport in 2010, but very narrowly.
However, to put Bridgeport in Murphy's district would, on the face of it, seem to require that Himes' district take in 100,000 people or so in what I believe (by state senate margains so correct me if wrong) to be the most Republican part of Murphy's district--the part on the NY border.  It would seem easier to give CT-05 more of Greater Hartford if you want to strengthen it.  Also, putting Bridgeport in CT-05 would be insane.  I mean, I'm from CT-04 and Bridgeport is definitely the odd duck in the district but the area is called the Bridgeport-Stamford metro area for a reason.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

Maybe he was being facetious?
Donovan couldn't have been serious; the 5 seats are actually pretty good in keeping communities of interest together- there's the Fairfield County seat, the Eastern CT seat, the New Haven seat, the Hartford seat. Sure, Hartford's burbs and sprawl aren't all together, but no one's perfect. The fifth can just trade some areas from Rosa or Larson to make it more Democratic, and there's 5 reasonably safe seats.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)

[ Parent ]
Canada-PM update: Is the NDP surge shifting?
I'm having trouble interpreting, ref http://www.ctv.ca/mini/electio...

Of course, it's based on one of those 3-day rolling polls, so the usual provisios about small sample sizes apply -- especially when discussing individual regions.

But this headline is hopeful overall

Tory lead in Ontario and B.C. narrows, widens in Prairies

as the Conservatives were always going to sweep all but maybe a very few seats in that region. It looks like the NDP might have peaked in Quebec, but are continuing to surge in Ontario, and are starting a new surge in BC. (big proviso -- if I'm reading the numbers correctly, the BC daily subsample is like maybe 50 voters)

And there's something else about how the BQ vote started dropping right after the debates -- though I've seen one article that suggests that it came right after Duceppe went hard sovereigntist on April 17.

So time to await confirmation from other polls.


EKOS basically confirms
and their overall tracking numbers seem more reliable,

The field dates for this survey are April 26-28, 2011. In total, a random sample of 3,353
Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 3,066 decided
voters).

So 1000+ voters/day in each Ekos daily subsample.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/in...

The "certain to vote" seems more solid NDP

When we look at only those who are certain to vote, the Conservatives are at 35.5% but NDP vote resolve has risen and they are now very close behind at 30.6%.

Interesting what they call a "consensus"

There are very clear fault lines but also evidence of a potential consensus. While the Conservatives remain very strong with older Canadians and males, the NDP are showing strong connection with the Gen X and Gen Y, where they now lead. The NDP have also seized much of the university-educated vote from the Liberals and have significant representation in all regions and demographic groups, outside of over 65 voters who are the lynchpin of Conservative support.


[ Parent ]
Just curious
Do you and the other's who have been following this have a stake (i.e. being from Canada, live on border states, etc.) or is this just a fascination with the current election.  I haven't seen foreign elections covered in such detail on SSP before, at least not that I recall.

[ Parent ]
I follow elections in English-speaking countries
i.e. Canada and Great Britain. I find them interesting because they're a lot easier to follow/relate to than elections in countries with a language barrier and a lot of splintered parties (see, for example, the Finnish election, where there were something like seven or eight parties that won seats).

[ Parent ]
I learned HS French
from a teacher who taught us that "Oui" was a dirty word.

From then on (in rebellion), I've always had a latent sympathy for Rene Levesque (first major Parti Quebecois leader).

In addition, I think the NDP surge includes lessons for us as Democrats, w/r/t the kind of campaign that can appeal to Nascar Dads (Canadian translation: Tim Horton voters). I'm just not sure what they are yet.


[ Parent ]
Nascar Dads = Tim horton voters
Gosh I went to Tim Horton's quite  abit the few times I did consulting in canada, i didn't know that made me the equivalent of a NASCAR dad...I feel dirty.  LOL

[ Parent ]
Haven't been participating much
I didn't realize so many SSP commenters were following the campaign-- I haven't had time to sift through all of the Daily Digests until today. Love seeing it.

But I'm definitely following the campaign and definitely emotionally invested. Growing up, we were close enough to the border to get a lot of Canadian TV. Besides watching a lot of Canadian sitcoms (underappreciated), watching Canadian politics was probably what spurred my interest in US politics.

Sad fact: I visited Ottawa for the first time a full two years before I visited DC for the first time.


[ Parent ]
I'm a future Canadian
I plan on emigrating to Canada in the near future.  

[ Parent ]
The NDP
Despite being anti-Monarchist, should send flowers to Kate. By drawing all the media this weekend, its going to prevent a media panic mode over them moving from "isn't this amazing" to "these lunatics are actually going to win".

The bigger problem of course if they do is that they are badly prepared for government. They have 37 current MPs, but only 16 of them have been in office since before 2004. There are 31 Ministries. That means even dumping people who have been in office for only a year or two into them, you are still going to end up with inexperienced backbenchers and nobodies filling them. And there is zero room for error.

God forbid some of the paper candidates turn out to be Marxists, Separatists, or general loons.

Layton really really does not want the government now. He would be happy destroying the Liberals and being set up to win in a year or two when he can bring down the Tories after purging 40% of his caucus and convincing a bunch of leading Liberals to defect.  

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
NDP Majority?
I would think PM Layton only happens with a Liberal coalition to cover the gap-- no way the NDP gets a majority on its own. So I'd bet that there are a few Liberal MPs who end up in the cabinet to help out with the experience issue.

[ Parent ]
The Goal of the Liberals Has Changed
Three weeks ago it was get rid of Harper. Now it is to get back to second place as the clear alternative government. If the NDP is the official opposition to a Tory Minority, they will likely win the next election and the Liberals will be wiped out. If the NDP governs well, the same will happen.

The only good road for the Liberals is to put the NDP in, and then have them fall flat on their faces. The best way to do that is to support them in forming a government, and then to refuse them Ministers or support, and wait for the polls to shift to trigger a new election. The key criteria will not be whether the Tories will win that election, but whether the Liberals will beat the NDP.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Not quite convinced
I think there are enough senior members of the party who miss being in a position to govern, and I think Layton is smart enough to make some backroom deals if he decides he needs to, since party switches in Canada are a bit more common than in the US. I think if Layton forms a government (HUGE if), we see some actual or de facto defections from the Liberal caucus.

Besides, there seem to be murmurs of a "unite the left" effort like there were for the Reform/CCRAP/Alliance and the PCs starting in the late '90s. Prior to this, the Liberals wouldn't have had anything to gain from that sort of merger-- they got to point at the NDP and call themselves the responsible middle-- but if they've lost their electoral advantage over the NDP, it might be worth it for them to pursue a merger just to stay viable. In exchange, the NDP gets some stronger regional bases and a much improved campaign infrastructure.


[ Parent ]
I know various people
from rural areas in Canada, including quite a few reformed Mennonites. They are all quite solidly behind the NDP, which has a surprisingly strong rural, progressive wing that is playing well.

[ Parent ]
Intuition tells me NDP can do well in BC
From what I've heard, the culture there is just San Francisco in province form

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
It swings wildy
It went heavily NDP in 1988, but went for Reform(basically the Tea Party in political form) heavily in 1993 and 2000. The Tories have won it in every election since 2004.

At the provincial level there was a highly unpopular NDP government during the early 1990s that completely destroyed in 2001. And I mean wiped out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
One reason for the shift
may be because the NDP candidates in Quebec are, in some cases, placeholders who were put on the ballot in order to fill out the card in every riding.  

http://www.theglobeandmail.com...

In BC, the NDP is clearly in second place.  In Atlantic Canada, it is a 3-party race.  And, in Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. Here is a link to a summary of the polls, which contains breakdowns by region as well:

http://www.electionalmanac.com...

The biggest danger for the Liberals and NDP (if they are to form a governing coalition) appears to be in Ontario, where they could split the vote in many ridings and allow the Conservatives to win with 40% of the vote or less.

Maybe we need a new site: SPP (Swing Province Project).


[ Parent ]
NY-26
36-31 Corwin: http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

When is this race again? It'd be a huge shot in the arm if we could pull off a NY-23 style upset here going into '12.

22, male, VA-10


Wow
Corwin needs to get Crazy Jack Davis' numbers down. Last I saw she a big money advantage, a lot of it from her own pocket. I find it hard to believe voters find Davis a credible "Tea Party" candidate after he ran as a Dem in 06.

Corwin probably doesn't want to even acknowledge Davis but she may have to shore up her support among Republicans. I really don't see Hochul getting any more than the 31% she is pulling here, as that basically correlates with Dem %age in the district.  


[ Parent ]
Jack Davis at 23% on the Tea Party line?
But then again, Tea Party support was strong in NY-23 in '09.

[ Parent ]
Yes, this is the most Republican district in New York!
It would be a huge boost.  Though I'm not sure how we would be able to protect her during redistricting...trying to make 3 Dem districts in Western New York seems a bit awkward.

Though now I'm afraid once the NRCC gets wind of this poll they may launch a barrage on Hochul.

21,Democrat, NY-02, male


[ Parent ]
Already re-districting
I lvoe the optimism.  

Still its hard to see how Hochul can thread the needle fo taking some 5% or so of support from Corwin and transferring it to Davis while increasing her own share.  She has to hope Davis goes very negative on Corwin and she can be considered "above the fray" I guess.  

I'm not sure Hochul going negative on Corwin will work.


[ Parent ]
Hm, it might be time for the DCCC to start spending after all
Also, the election is May 24, about three and a half weeks from now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Couldn't hurt
Not exactly the most expensive media market on earth either.


[ Parent ]
Siena's track record in the NY specials
Their final NY-20 poll had Murphy up 47-43, while in NY-23, they had Hoffman up 41-36. They're probably in the ballpark, but I'd take it with a grain of salt.

[ Parent ]
Their cross-tabs were spot on in NY-23
I was able to extrapolate the final result by allocating their D/R/I crosstab in a fashion like user andyroo.

I did not anaylze the NY-20 special, but Murphy did win that one by that kind of margin, no?


[ Parent ]
No, he won by 0.5% after two weeks of absentee counting.


[ Parent ]
Okay thanks. Still within their MoE, n/m


[ Parent ]
With 10% undecided in their last poll
in a traditionally GOP district (especially pre-Gillibrand) they were actually really close.

Of course the lesson would apply to NY-26 as well, with 9% undecided or so in this poll, its hard to see how those undecideds break for Hochul in such a GOP-leaning district (barring a candidate implosion).


[ Parent ]
The crosstabs aren't opening for me, but, as for the toplines...
Siena is suggesting that the third-party candidates (Davis and the Green Party dude) are poised to garner upwards of 30 percent. I do have a difficult time fathoming that, but, for argument's sake, I'll pretend Corwin's failing to connect with the Paladino wing of the upstate GOP. Even if that's the case, Hochul probably doesn't much more to gain. Siena's suggesting that she's already maxing out among Democrats and that's only getting her to 30 percent. I guess she'd need to hope the Green Party guy fades while Davis doesn't. I see something like a 47-37-15 victory for Corwin here.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Crosstabs
Obama has a 39-57 approval rating, including a 22-74 approval rating among Jack Davis supporters.

Cuomo has a 72-20 approval rating and even is above water with Corwin and Davis supporters by a 2-1 margin.

Corwin and Hochul are both at 44-31 approval. Only 24% Davis voters approve of Corwin to 39% who disapprove. Davis' supporters actually like Hochul more, 36-35.

Jack Davis has a 42-41 approval rating and is despised by supporters of both Corwin and Hochul.

Corwin's approvals are 26-50 with Dems, 60-17 with Reps, and 44-29 with Indies. Hochul's are 60-21 with Dems, 34-40 with Reps, and 42-30 with Indies. Davis' are 31-46 with Dems, 49-35 with Reps, and 46-40 with Indies.

For the horse race, Davis actually is the second-largest vote getter for each party. Hochul leads with Dems, 62-20-12. Corwin leads with Reps 56-24-10 and Indies, 34-27-26. In Erie, where all three candidates reside but Hochul is an elected official, Hochul leads 37-36. (FWIW, Davis actually lives in the 28th portion of Erie.)

By a 53-36 margin, voters want their next representative to support Boehner and the Republicans over Obama and the Democrats.

56% of Hochul's voters are sure they will vote for her as opposed to 44% for Corwin.

27% of voters say Corwin is running the most negative campaign, as opposed to 18% for Hochul and 13% for Davis. (Hochul wins the "most positive" question with 29%, followed by Davis at 26% and Corwin at 22%).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Okay, thanks
Not sure why the PDF file isn't loading for me.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
NDP's
latest ad, comments?



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


I haven't been following this at all
But that ad seems fantastic and Layton (?) comes across as instantly likeable.  

[ Parent ]
"Imagine a leader
who measures the strength of the economy by whether or not you can make ends meet."

Now there's a campaign that appeals to the masses!


[ Parent ]
Makes you wonder
We all know negative ads are used because they work.  It makes me wonder when in the course of time positive ads stopped working.

I'm also amazed at my own memory (or lack thereof), I can't recall of a political ad in my life when every person in the ad was smiling and video of the candidate actually laughing was shown.


[ Parent ]
Strong Obama-esque vibe to that one...
Even Layton's "together WE CAN do this..."

Echoes of "Yes We Can"?

I think Layton and the NDP will likely run out of time, that one more week would have been ideal for them.  

Interesting that Canadians per capita use the internet the most and the NDP have focused a lot on internet advertising.  They have blanketed Yahoo! with ads in Canada - from yahoo email to yahoo! sports and fantasy leagues.  

What effect - if any at all - would Canada electing the far left have on American politics?  


[ Parent ]
I know what party I'm joining
if I ever move to Canada.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
One of the best ads I've ever seen. Really. Definitely as good as...
...anything the Obama campaign ever did.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NH-Pres: Obama at 44/52 approval, down 7 to Romney
UNH
not very reliable.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I buy it based on "totality of polling" rule......
Gas prices and an otherwise slowing recovery turned national morale down again.  Obama's numbers have gone south everywhere, nationally and in individual states.  It makes that good PPP poll of North Carolina even more striking, but otherwise things are tough.

And yet I'm not the least bit concerned because all this stuff dragging down Obama right now is transitory.  The Middle Eastern counries will come to resolutions of some sort one at a time, gas prices will go back down again, and the recovery will pick up (albeit likely not wildly).

But for now, yeah Obama's numbers are bad.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
New Hampshire is quite wacky at the moment though
One of (if not THE) most popular Dem governor in any state.  PPP found in their last NH Guv poll that Lynch is actually seeing increases in his approval rating with Republicans and Indies.  Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen has a approval of 50-36 in April per PPP as well.

NH House went from a Dem majority in 2008 to a GOP super-majority in 2010.  The NH House is now 294 R-102D, a whopping 120+ seats changed parties in 2010.  The NH House has a higher % of GOP members (74%) than Texas (67%), Oklahoma (69%)...right up there with Utah (79%) and Wyoming (83%).

NH senate went from a Dem majority (14-10) in 2008 to a GOP super-majority in 2010, with 9 of 24 seats changing hands.  The NH Senate has a higher percentage of GOP seats (19R-5D, 79%) than Texas (19R-12D, 61%), Okalahoma (32R-16D, 67%), Utah (22-7, 76%) and they only seem to trail Wyoming (26-4, 87%).

Of course the current do-over polls, at the same time as the Lynch and Shaheen approval polls, Dems would win those, so fluctuations are rather large in 6 months, huh.

So I think NH has to win the "all time swingiest electorate in the history of time in perpetuity throughout the universe" award.  Seriously, its 2 statewide elected Dems enjoy decent approval, Obama is losing, and their state legislatures are more GOP dominated than Oklahoma or Texas.  And this state is in New England.



[ Parent ]
I expect no less from a state that's 45 to 50 percent non-affiliated in party registration


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Ehh
Just because someone is unaffiliated doesn't mean my political leanings swing wildly every 2 years (or 6 months).  There are waves and then there's just out-and-out lunacy.  We're seeing lunacy in NH polling/election from Nov-2010 to right now.

[ Parent ]
Also, Republican numbers are noticebly worse
It's not like any of their national candidates are doing well against Obama, and their congressional support is tanking as well.

[ Parent ]
Minnesota Constitutional amendments
Since the Governor can not veto proposed constitutional amendments the Republican controlled legislature is looking to put their right wing wish list on the Nov 2012 ballot. Nothing has passed yet but they are proposing

- a gay marriage ban

- Voter ID

- 3/5 vote in legislature to raise taxes

- some sort of pro gun thing (not sure of the details)

I am afraid that all the proposed amendments would have a good chance to pass. The good news is in Minnesota is it takes 50% of those voting in an election to pass, if you don't vote on the constitutional question it is the same as voting no. Last constitutional amendment about 5% of voters did not vote on the question.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Re: Deval Patrick
I could see Patrick as AG next term if Holder steps down.

The other possibility is the Supreme Court, where Patrick's name has often been floated. That may be less likely though since no vacancy seems likely until 2013 and given that it would likely be Ginsburg, Obama might be inclined to again name a woman to the bench. Judge Diane Wood is probably out, unfortunately, given her age. Jennifer Granholm may be a possibility, as might Caitlin Halligan, the former NY Solicitor General who has been nominated to an appeals court but is awaiting confirmation.  


If it's Ginsberg...
She'll definitely be replaced by another woman.  Administration made too much of "three women on the bench" to replace RBG with a male.  

[ Parent ]
You absolutely correct.
They have several good options including former Georgia Chief Justice Leah Ward Sears, Pamela S. Karlan, Kim McLane Wardlaw, and Jennifer Granholm to name a few. I would throw out a huge wild card (not even remotely likely) Hillary Clinton.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I'd like to see Sears or McLane Wardlaw get it
Granholm was a crappy attorney general and a lackluster governor. I wouldn't want President Obama to pick her just because they seem to be friends. And Karlan, I think, is too left-wing to be confirmed.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
The only way
to get someone like Karlan, who is probably the liberal equivalent of Scalia if what I've read about her is any indication, is to have someone like Scalia retire and pull a move from "The Supremes" episode of "The West Wing," where Bartlet picks a staunch liberal and a staunch conservative in order to get the staunch liberal.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
One of my favorite episodes, actually.


23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I wish he'd nominated Diane Wood last time around
... and then waited to appoint Kagan when Ginsburg stepped down. Although I suppose that if he really wanted to name Kagan to the court, it made sense to do it last year since there was (and is) the risk that he'll lose next year and won't get another appointment.  

[ Parent ]
I sincerely hope
that Anthony Kennedy retires whether or not Obama is re-elected.  He ruled out retiring before 2012, but wouldn't give an answer about whether he would in the four years after 2012.

I mean, I have no issue with Kennedy (the only conservative justice that isn't a member of the Federalist Society), but the court truly needs to shift over some.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I hate to project to far in the future, but I
can see another Democrat elected President in 2016. I can only hope at least. cough Hillary cough

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
My point being
someone like Scalia probably couldn't last till 2020, maybe 2024.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
It's going to be hard to shift the court to the left
... within the next couple decades unless Democrats hold the White House for 3-4 consecutive terms (including this one). That'll be hard, although maybe if Obama wins reelection AND the economy is really booming by 2016 it could happen.

Frankly, the Supreme Court is exactly why I still really wish John Kerry had won in 2004. Had he won, Kerry would have been able to name four justices including replacements for Rehnquist and O'Connor. Given how right-wing the court's tilt has been under Roberts, it would have made a pretty drastic difference.


[ Parent ]
He would have named zero justices...
The GOP Senate would have blocked all of them and claimed that the supreme court works just fine with 7 justices and no need to have nine.

I guarantee you that no shift on the supreme court would have occurred during his tenure.


[ Parent ]
Rehnquist died
If the Republicans refused to confirm a Kerry nominee, he could have made a recess appointment, and some nominee would eventually have been confirmed.

It would have changed the balance of the Court.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah, he was the Chief Justice, after all.
They would need a new one or be defunct.  Also, O'Connor would have retired regardless of who was in the WH.  She retired because her husband has althzeimer's and was having an affair with another woman at the time.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I'm hoping for Harold Koh, personally...
But Gov. Patrick would be a solid pick for attorney general. I don't think Supreme Court is really his speed for some reason. He's very much a politician in my eyes.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
to that point:
we NEED some more politicians on the court. there are too many jurists.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Sears, having served as an elected Supreme Court justice...
Fits the bill well, in my opinion.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
This your new district DCCyclone?
http://farm6.static.flickr.com...
It takes in central Arlington and then proceeds to cut through McLean.  I think this is the new 30th.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Yup, that's mine, thanks, but it's the 31st, not the 30th. Both are open and...
...now it's game-on in the Dem primary.

I'm not sure who all is running, but there's a military guy, a Hispanic Arlingtonian, who's thinking about challenging the one declared candidate, Arlington County Supervisor Barbara Favola.

And of course Ben Tribbett is thinking about it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Lee District/Fort Hunt
Do you have an image for my district(s) in Lee district Fort Hunt area?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Fort Hunt is in District 30 by the looks of it.
Use this to find it.
http://www.leichtman.org/vamap...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]

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