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SSP Daily Digest: 4/27

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 27, 2011 at 8:31 AM EDT


Senate:

FL-Sen: It's official: Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who filed paperwork last week, formally joined the GOP Senate field yesterday, making his announcement on right-wing radio host Mark Levin's show. Despite his establishment pedigree, Hasner has endeared himself to movement conservatives, hitting almost all of the right notes in what I call "Tribal Clef" - like so, but when you sing just the right tune to please the teabaggers. He was for Marco Rubio before it was cool, likes to hate on Muslims, and tried to push a state constitutional amendment that would let Florida "opt out" of card check should the Employee Free Choice Act ever pass. One odd thing, though, is his support for electric cars, something that Rush Limbaugh likes to mock as some liberal attempt at social engineering.

MA-Sen: Activist Bob Massie has hired one-time Howard Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi. Trippi was once a netroots icon but really fell out of favor after he went to run the Senate campaign of zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene in Florida last year.

ME-Sen: One possible Dem name we hadn't yet heard of as a possible challenger to Sen. Olympia Snow is state Sen. Phil Bartlett. Bartlett is just 32 years old, but will already be term-limited next year. (Maine seems to have a lot of very young legislators!) In the classic formulation, he says he's "not ruling out" a race.

MO-Sen, MO-02: It's Apes-A-Poppin in the Missouri Senate race -  and beyond. As Rep. Todd Akin inches closer to a senatorial run, teabagger favorite Ed Martin says he's thinking about running for Akin's potentially vacant seat, rather than competing against him in the Senate primary. Martin came close to beating Rep. Russ Carnahan in MO-03 last year, but that district is all but certain to get caved into Akin's present 2nd CD. Martin is a resident of St. Louis, though, so I'm not sure if he'd wind up in the new 2nd district (not that it necessarily matters).

Martin's newfound open-mindedness seems to come in response to a move by former state GOP chair Ann Wagner to create an exploratory committee for a possible run in whatever winds up being the successor to Akin's seat -  again, assuming Akin runs for Senate, which Wagner thinks is "likely."

NE-Sen: Ben Nelson told a Rotary Club gathering that he hasn't yet decided whether he'll run again in 2012. Also, help me out here, because I'm not understanding this: Is Nelson also saying in this article that he voted for healthcare reform because if he hadn't, a public option would have passed? I'm not getting this one at all.

NM-Sen: Dem Hector Balderas, another candidate who telegraphed his intentions last week, also made his entry into his state's Senate primary official yesterday. He employed some good framing in his intro video:

Accountability and fiscal responsibility are not Republican words. And I'm tired of hearing them used as excuses to shortchange our children and break promises to our seniors.

As Sean Sullivan notes, he does take an indirect jab at Rep. Martin Heinrich, saying he doesn't have "the most connections in Washington" and that he "won't be the candidate of the lobbyists or the insiders." The contours of this race seem superficially akin to those in Connecticut, where a more powerful congressman is facing off against a (former) statewide elected official, but I'm hoping everyone keeps their noses clean here.

NV-Sen: Silver State Dems are trying to do everything they can, it seems, to pressure Gov. Brian Sandoval into not appointing Rep. Dean Heller to John Ensign's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat. I'm doubtful any of this will work (why should Sandoval care?), but if you're curious to see what Democrats are up to, click the link.

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: We're getting close to landing a pretty strong gubernatorial candidate in the Hoosier State. Former Dem state House Speaker John Gregg (whom we've mentioned in the past) says that he'll soon form an exploratory committee and that his "mind is made up." He's been pressing the flesh at Jefferson-Jackson dinners across the state lately, trying to re-build his name rec after a decade out of office. Still, with Mike Pence looking awfully lazy, I'm feeling perhaps a touch optimistic about this race.

House:

AR-04: The NRCC is airing a radio ad (I assume for peanuts) against Dem Rep. Mike Ross, attacking him for voting against all five budget proposals which came up for a vote in the House on April 15th. The main Republican Medicare-killing plan sponsored by Paul Ryan, the even crazier Republican Study Committee plan sponsored by Scott Garrett (which Dems almost tricked the GOP into passing), the Progressive Caucus plan sponsored by Raul Grijalva, the Congressional Black Caucus plan sponsored by Emanuel Cleaver, and I guess what you'd call the mainstream Democratic plan sponsored by Chris Van Hollen, which hasn't gotten a lot of attention.

So amusingly, the NRCC is trying to ding Ross for not voting for everything from Scott Garrett's vision for dystopia to a plan they'd readily denounce as neo-Stalinist. Ross should easily be able to turn this around and cast himself as an ardent defender of Medicare. (I'm sure I don't need to give him any pointers about wanking on the Grijalva or Cleaver plans.) They're also doing robocalls in another dozen or so seats held by other Dems who also voted against all five plans. Maybe this line of attack will work, but there are really very few districts left where it can.

IN-08: Former six-term state Rep. Dave Crooks, who left office in 2008, says he's "pretty close to pulling the trigger" on a run against freshman Rep. Larry Bucshon. The 8th CD looks like it'll get made a touch more Democratic, something that Crooks acknowledges has figured in his plans. What's more, Bucshon so far has proven to be no great shakes - he had the poorest fundraising quarter of any congressman in Indiana. (Shades of John Hostettler, the last Republican to hold this seat before Bucshon?) I also like the fact that Crooks is already coming out hard against the Ryan plan.

In any event, Crooks says he's likely to make a formal announcement in the next 30 days, which would be a very good get for Team Blue. Warrick County Democratic Party Terry White is already in the race (which we noted previously), and former state Rep. Trent Van Haaften (who ran last year) is also still weighing a run.

MN-08: Democrats have finally landed a challenger to the really meager Rep. Chip Cravaack: Daniel Fanning, the deputy state director for Sen. Al Franken and an Iraq war vet. I suspect that this will not be the last word on the Dem primary field, though. UPDATE: Seems I read the article a little too hastily. Fanning is just saying he's likely to run. He hasn't officially declared.

NV-02: Speaking of Dean Heller (see NV-Sen bullet above), Sharron Angle is supposedly threatening to do exactly what I predicted she would, which is run an independent campaign in the free-for-all special election to replace Heller if she isn't tapped by the Republican Party. However, this "news" comes from the Las Vegas Review-Journal "newspaper" (as Jon Ralston would put it), and they admit it's nothing more than a rumor, calling it "the word circulating Monday."

Here's something that's not mere rumor: Dem Assemblywoman Debbie Smith says she won't run in any special in NV-02. We do still have other options here, though, like Treasurer Kate Marshall.

NY-26: The first candidate-on-candidate Medicare attack ad belongs to Kathy Hochul, who nails Republican Jane Corwin for her support of the Ryan budget plan. The Fix says the buy is for 1,000 points, which is substantial. If I were Hochul, I'd hit this theme and little else for the next four weeks.

OR-01: Whoa. After a couple months of nothing doing, it looks like the Democratic jalopy is about to start getting very full. Former state Sen. Ryan Deckert is now the third Dem to get in or near the race to unseat Rep. David Wu, and current state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici is the fourth, with both saying they are "considering" a run. Guys, you realize what happens when everyone piles into this rustbucket, right? Former Jeff Merkley state director Jon Isaacs says he thinks Wu can probably score from 35-45% of the vote, which means that unseating him will be very hard with more than one opponent. I'm inclined to agree.

TX-14: LOL, I guess we have to put Ron Paul on the 2012 House Open Seat Watch now.

Other Races:

NJ-St. Sen.: Even though an administrative judge already said he could run, Republican Secretary of State Kim Guadagno ruled that Carl Lewis is ineligible to appear on the ballot this November as a Democrat. It just so happens that Guadagno is also the Lt. Gov., which means, of course, she's under Chris Christie's considerable thumb. Why does this matter? Because Lewis had the temerity to insult the thin-skinned Don Christeone when he decided to run for office while also pursuing a plan to develop a state youth athletic program under the governor's auspices. That plan now sleeps with the fishes, and Guadagno's latest move amounts to delivering the dead carp wrapped in newspaper. Fortunately, Lewis says he'll appeal.

WI Recall: Good news for Dem state Sens. Lena Taylor and Fred Risser: The deadline for the GOP to submit recall petitions for them came and went with nary a whisper. Meanwhile, Democrats plan to file signatures against a sixth (and probably final) Republican, Rob Cowles, this week.

Redistricting Roundup:

Colorado: Any attempts at bipartisan compromise have totally fallen apart at this point, with the GOP saying they'll produce a new plan of their own in response to the Democrats' announcement they they'll introduce a new map. With the legislature split, I have to believe this will head to court, unless the Dems can present something that the GOP fears less than the prospect of a judge-drawn map.

Missouri: Republicans are still scrambling to try to create a new map that both the House and Senate can agree on in time to put it on Gov. Jay Nixon's desk and be able to schedule a veto over-ride before the current legislative session ends on May 13. The problem is that today is really the last day they can squeeze this in. Nixon has 15 days to review any bill he gets). It would take quite a breakthrough for this to happen, and lawmakers are apparently worried that if they have to wait until September to try an over-ride, Nixon will have the chance to sway wobbly legislators to his side. The GOP's redistricting chair says: "If you're term-limited out and looking for a job, the governor can dangle something in front of you." Dangle away, Jay!

Virginia: Oh god. This is just not a headline I wanted to see: "Senate opens bipartisan negotiations on redistricting." Dems claim they "won't negotiate away our majority," but what does that mean? The Democratic majority in the state Senate is already cut pretty close to the bone, so I don't see how they have much room to give. At least if they go with a court-drawn map instead, they get a) a better map in the House even if they risk a worse map in the Senate and b) a shot at a second set of elections in 2012 with Obama at the top of the ticket  -  and fighting hard for VA, you can be sure. But if they play nice with Gov. Bob McDonnell, they could wind up with something resembling a dummymander. I'm pretty worried.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/27
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Re: Virginia
My worst fears are ever-closer to coming true.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

Dems in VA
Well the writing is on the wall, so its time to get acitve.  If we're worried about 2011/2012, is there anything that can be done now?

Can work be started now on statewide signature draws to put ballot propositions in place for 2012 that might over-ride changes the GOP is planning (I'm sure anti-union stuff is coming)?  So is there a methodology for getting a ballot initiative to maintain union worker rights and the like in Virginia?  

Seems the state is likely to vote Obama in 2012 as of right now, depending on the GOP nom of course.  Ballot initiatives at the same time might stand a good chance of passing.


[ Parent ]
Virginia doesn't do that
The only ballot process is for constitutional amendments, which have to be passed by the legislature, and I doubt anti-union legislation would get defeated at the polls anyway.

[ Parent ]
What would a compromise VA Senate Map look like?
This is getting too far into the weeds for most press coverage, but it seems like the press is also working blind on this, they just use quotes from McDonnell & Coleslaw, but no specifics about what districts/counties/municipalities McDonnell is complaining about or how a "fix" might affect the overall partisan advantage.  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Perhaps it means
drawing a 22-18 map rather than their 23-17 map they tried.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Maybe
They'll draw a map that's a 20-20 map based on '09 demographics and 23-17 based on '05 demographics. Then everyone can declare victory, go home and then find out how dumb the are this November.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I don't get your last point.
Are you being sarcastic the entire comment?

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
A bit sarcastic, as always
but my point is that in this fight (and maybe all redistricting fights) victory on the map and victory with the map are different things (obviously).

I'm anticipating both sides coming out and claiming victory, rightly, based on teh set of circumstances they assume will play out - and in 9 months they'll probably both be proven wrong.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Very surprised that Bonamici is considering entering the race...
In OR-01. She and Commissioner Avakian are friends, I've always had the impression she considers Avakian to be a political mentor of sorts, and I definitely expected her to endorse him and take her name out of the running. I like Avakian a lot, but it would be nice to have a woman in Oregon's congressional delegation - and Bonamici is a straight shooter, she's ambitious, and I do think she'd deliver for the district. Candidly, I'd be fine with either her or Avakian succeeding Rep. Wu, but I am starting to worry about a crowded field. Evidently Avakian didn't suck the oxygen out of the room the way I figured he would.

I think Witt is probably not going to make too much of a splash, but Deckert is a potentially big name, though I'm not sure Oregon Democrats are going to go for someone they see as a "big business" candidate. Macpherson is a total non-starter.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


I should add...
Commissioner Avakian doesn't really give off as much of a "politician" vibe as Bonamici. His campaign ads for statewide office were humorous, one or two of them featuring his children (both of whom I knew fairly well in high school, as I've said) and a little jingle they came up with. He presents a very staid "ordinary concerned citizen" image.

That being said, I can see how his affability wouldn't necessarily translate into political dynamite. Avakian was nudged out of the race for Oregon's second-highest state office (secretary of state) and persuaded to accept an appointment to complete a term as labor commissioner, which is still a statewide office of some prominent, but it's not exactly a traditional repository for political superstardom. I think he'd be a reliable Democratic vote who would listen tirelessly to his constituents, and he'd certainly be one more for the "nice guys" caucus in Washington, but I don't really see him being too much more active in the House than Rep. Wu has been (though yes, less gaffe-prone by miles).

To contrast, Bonamici seems very much like a politician, and one with very strong legal sensibilities as well. She doesn't strike me as being quite as immediately likable as Avakian, but I think she's more direct in some ways, she's a strong communicator, and she is a go-getter who has already been entrusted with the big job of leading the Oregon Senate's nonpartisan redistricting effort despite being well junior to many other members of the Senate. She's followed Avakian into both the House and now the Senate, and as I've said, I believe they're personal friends, at least to some degree - but I can see how, despite Avakian's seniority and his higher statewide profile, Bonamici could attract significant support from key Democrats. I think Avakian would be a reliable and hardworking backbencher; I think Bonamici has the potential to make the occasional headline.

In ideological terms, I haven't seen daylight between the two, but I'm sure minor stuff will come out if there's a primary.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
If Wu can get 55% in '10
and even 58% in '04 after being accused of sexual assault...

then short of a full-on R gerrymander, OR-01 will be safe for any non-scandalous D for at least the next decade, and likely beyond, given demographic trends in the state.

In other words, this is a once in a political lifetime opportunity for any ambitious D pol in the area. Friendships have gone out the window in the past in similar circumstances.

As for Deckert's business connections, remember the district. If he can put Phil Knight (Nike) out of play (or even get his support, as I suspect), that would be a "get" similar to Harry Reid getting Steve Wynn.


[ Parent ]
Good points both
Knight getting behind Deckert would probably set up a three-way slugfest between the "pro-business" Democrat, the "progressive establishment" Democrat, and the damaged incumbent Democrat. Who knows how that comes out.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I don't think it's whether Wu can win
It's whether Democrats can't get a better Democrat, both in terms of policy, and especially in terms of political talent, in the seat. I think getting a youngish, politically talented Democrat in the seat is a must looking forward to 2016 or 2022 when Ron Wyden retires. Rep. Wu's career is just a long stream of political failures, mishandled controversies, and backbenching in Congress. Oregon to do much better.  

[ Parent ]
That was one of the reasons I was hoping for a sixth district...
Brian Clem of Salem fits the bill really well.

Of course, if Commissioner Avakian vacates, Clem could always succeed him...

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
MO-2
Has anyone ever before announced a run for a vacant seat that isn't open yet, with lines that haven't been written yet.

Maybe that's her campaign slogan: Ann Wagner: Out ahead of everyone, including herself.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I can't wait until the Republican primary in Missouri...
When Wagner will be defeated by RNC Chairman Reince Priebus.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Ha!
I wonder what Martin will do when Wagner announces raising $30M in the 2nd quarter...

IMO that's how the RNC should have elected their new chairman, put them all in a room with phone lines and the first one to raise the $25M they need to retire their debt gets to call themselves Chairman, the others get fed to wolves...wait, isn't that a reality show?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
They'd need
Donald Trump moderating it.

[ Parent ]
What Ben Nelson probably means
My sense is that Nelson means that had he said he was voting against the HCR bill, Democrats would have had to use reconciliation to pass any of it rather than continue hunting for that long elusive 60th vote.

And had they used reconciliation, Dem leaders would obviously have been VERY hard pressed to justify not including a public option. If I remember correctly there were 50 Senators who had committed to supporting a public option.  

Twitter.com/Taniel


Preface: I really like(d) Ben Nelson
I worked a ton of campaigns out there, and though I was on the other side I always had respect for Nelson. McCain could have taken some lessons on being a "real" Maverick doesn't mean acting like a total nacissistic tool.

That said, I seriously think Nelson has lost it. In that last 3-4 years he has alienated his base of populist Dems, infuriated what few liberal elites exist in Lincoln & Omaha, driven away the moderate GOPers and galvanized conservatives. IMO those that still claim to approve of him in polling are either doing it out of habit or are partisans who (though they hate him now) would never speak poorly of a Dem (even to a robo caller).

I'm not one to proclaim anyone dead meat in a contested election, I even believed Lincoln had a chance until Boozeman announced, but I'm having an extremely hard time envisioning his path to victory. It's almost like his campaign strategy needs to start with "Invent a Time Machine"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
if you're in worse shape than Blanche Lincoln
that's not a good situation.  I don't know how these rating people can legitimately call a race like that a "tossup".  Just because someone is a longtime incumbent who used to be popular doesn't mean his or her seat isn't a likely flip.

[ Parent ]
What he should have done
was simply to announce his opposition to the bill but inform Dem leadership that he would vote with them on procedural motions. I said so at the time.  

[ Parent ]
Er, dude
They DID use reconciliation. Remember Scott Brown?

[ Parent ]
If only reconciliation had been available,
Democrats might have decided (by deferring to the Senate Parliamentarian. . .) that they could not pass any of the regulatory measures they wanted. Probably the easiest thing to accomplish would have been, e.g., a Medicare buy-in. It would have been trivial to show the deficit-reducing impact of that.  

[ Parent ]
Dude
This is insta-derail here. Come on. I was only trying to understand what Ben Nelson was saying, not re-litigate the HCR process.

[ Parent ]
I just think that's plausibly what Nelson meant
Who knows?  

[ Parent ]
sure
but they supposedly only used reconciliation to accommodate the House. they didn't pass the whole bill through it.

and when Nelson voted for it in December, reconciliation seemed off the table (no Brown yet). not saying Ben Nelson is right, since you're right they could have put in the PO in there, but this is still probably what he means.

Twitter.com/Taniel


[ Parent ]
NY-26
1,000 GRPs is a big buy, IF it's for 1 week. If it's for 2-3...then it's not.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


Crooks seems like a real get
And along with Sam Locke entering the race in (the admittedly less positive-looking) IN-09, the Dems have had a decent amount of good news on the Congressional front here lately.

FWIW, Joe Donnelly has been doing some of the same John Gregg style statewide campaigning with Dems, too. Howey Politics had an article (now behind their paywall, unfortunately, so I'm working from memory and can't provide a link) where IN Dem chairman Dan Parker respectively referred to Gregg and Donnelly as being "Our next candidate for governor" and "our next nominee for US Senator". Maybe Parker knows something we don't!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


Really?
I'd say that means they're pretty much sure things. I'll say I should hope the chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party knows something we don't.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I think Donnelly will get in, eventually
I'm thinking he's still undecided right now, though, and Parker's trying to tempt him in.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
If Daniels is the GOP Presidential nominee...
The it will all be for nothing.  But I love the recruitment "gets" the Dems are getting this cycle so far.  For all the doom and gloom over the Presidents polling, the fact that the GOP can't get anybody to run against him and the Dems are landing top recruits for down ticket races I think those tea leaves say a heckuva lot more than polling of the moment.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Daniels has ANY chance of winning the GOP nomination even if he runs......
While I appreciate there are tea leaves suggesting Daniels is leaning toward a run, they are unreliable tea leaves, and ultimately I wouldn't bet on him running unless he actually announces it.

But more importantly, I don't think he has any path to victory.  He has no national name recognition, so he has to cobble together state-by-state momentum under the primary calendar.  He can't win Iowa, his social conservative bona fides aren't good enough.  Then he has to pop in NH or he's done, because he can't overcome a poor showing in Iowa and NH to do anything in Nevada or South Carolina or Florida or anywhere else.  But there's too much clutter in New Hampshire, having to overcome Romney and then all the others, and Daniels doesn't have anything distinguishing to help him pop there.  He's distinct from Pawlenty because Pawlenty has a regional advantage coming from Iowa's neighbor to the north, and he can try to connect with his Midwestern kinship combined with his across-the-board conservative bona fides.

I really don't see how Daniels accomplishes anything.  He's yet another creation of Beltway GOP elites, a fantasy candidate who can't appeal to rank-and-file voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
How about as VP?
Probably the same effect as he'd have on top of the ticket in Indiana, but without the pitfalls you mention in the primary process.  

Of course what would Daniels add to a Romney or Pawlenty top of the ticket? With Mitt and Tim being the only two legit candidates I think we could see a "Unity Ticket" between the two.  However neither have any national security experience.


[ Parent ]
I could see a path for him
I don't think he's particularly likely to win the nod, even if he runs, but the Republican field seems sort of like a (weaker) version of the Dems in 2004. Nobody is really that enthused about any of the mainstream candidates, but that cuts both ways: whichever of Romney, Pawlenty, or Daniels emerges in the early primary states as the "mainstream" frontrunner or as the last alternative to a crazy (Gingrich, Bachmann, Trump) could probably mop up the bulk of GOP primary votes fairly quickly and get hte nomination.  

[ Parent ]
If it's like 2004, than Daniels can't win because...
...our 2004 winner was one of the clear frontrunners early on.  Kerry wasn't the frontrunner, but he was clearly among our top pollers, in the same ballpark with Lieberman (early on yes, Lieberman, purely due to name rec from 2000) and maybe one or two others (Dean didn't rise in polling until later in the cycle).

Daniels' problem is he's toward the bottom with no-names, he's not in the same tier with Romney or even Pawlenty.  Pawlenty has been running for a very long time and has his act together far better than Daniels ever will.

Daniels looks to me a lot more like Fred Thompson than anyone else:  a guy touted by a bunch of insiders who falls flat with rank-and-file voters.

If an establishmentarian wins it, I think it is almost certain to be Romney or Pawlenty, simply because of the primary calendar and map.  And both of them are weak enough that a crazy actually could rise and take it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I disagree.
In the 2004 races for senate, governor, and president in Indiana, there was some considerable ticket splitting happening. Granted, if Daniels gets 65 percent of the vote, it would take a shitty Republican candidate and a great Democratic candidate to win, but if Daniels were to fall below 60 percent, there would probably be an opening.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nice.
For the first time since I moved here in 2009, I'm beginning to be slightly optimistic that Indiana will cease to be a Republican wasteland at the statewide level come next election.

I wonder how much of the last decade of GOP dominance at the statewide level was Evan Bayh's fault. We know he kneecapped Baron Hill the way he handled his retirement announcement last year, and he's such an arrogant prick that I wouldn't be surprised if he's done that to other Dems as well. Obviously we can blame national undercurrents in the early 2000's for Kernan's loss, etc, but I think the inability to build a strong statewide D base post-Kernan is largely on Bayh because he wanted to be the only statewide Dem and couldn't get along or play well with others.

Maybe the plus side to Bayh leaving and Peterson losing is that Indiana Dems can finally build a real bench unadulterated by Bayh's preference for slick, arrogant d-bags like himself.  


[ Parent ]
Wow, I'm not a big fan of Bayh
But I wouldn't make statements like that. Evan Bayh built the modern Democratic Party in Indiana. Starting back with his election as Secretary of State in the 1980s, (he was the only statewide Democrat at that point), he led the way for Democrats to be competitive with, and to take the State House for most of the past two decades. It's just during the Bush years good candidates dried up and the cycles were mostly unfavorable.  

[ Parent ]
I know we're not going to have a debate
On whether Bayh is or is not a d-bag.

[ Parent ]
Setting aside whether he is or isn't
The big problem is that Bayh, for good or ill, was the only major Dem for quite a while in Indiana politics, especially after Frank O'Bannon's death. Look at the 2008 governor's race, or even now, with the emergence of John Gregg, a guy who hasn't even been in state government for a decade. Jill Long Thompson was a has-been Congresswoman and her only real competition for the nomination in '08 was Jim Schellinger, some architect that had never even run for office before. Bayh really dominated everything, to the point that most folks were shocked that he wasn't actually going to run for governor again.

Everything in Hoosier Democratic politics, except for little enclaves like Lake County and Indianapolis and Bloomington, was very much built around the Bayh brand. Independent folks like Hill never seemed to get a chance to move up.

I agree with notanother. Bayh finally leaving and allowing that void to be opened in Indiana politics was (and is) going to be rough at first, but it might very well pay off for the Dems in the long run.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Coats was out for awhile as well...
Now he's a Senator.  

[ Parent ]
With the way he's planned his post-Senate career
I'm no longer convinced of his ability to win a primary if he ever makes some sort of grand return to Hoosier politics.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Okay, but he'd undoubtedly crush in a general election


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Certainly


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Interesting article throwing out the
idea of a Gregg/Simpson ticket. Gregg is anti-choice and pro-gun. Simpson is the opposite.

http://www.courierpress.com/ne...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


[ Parent ]
It could work!
Simpson's already ran for governor once, though. Would she settle for Lt. Gov?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
There's no doubt in my mind that if she entered
the Democratic Gubinitorial primary she would win, but she may not be able to win the general. She might be persuaded to take the back seat, who knows. Gregg supposedly spoke to her a few months ago and said she wasn't interested. Of course she never confirmed that and hasn't denied interest in running.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
I adore Vi
n/t

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I've never understood that way of thinking.
It's one thing to have an ideological or personal problem with a candidate, but why not build the party, particularly if you want to advance? There are some that would never like Bayh because he's too moderate, but I suspect a considerable portion would have respect for him for being a team player and for working for the good of the party.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think many are under the impression
that Vi Simpson will enter the race. She recently went to Washington for a series of meetings and there has been a big push from her constiuency and from people around the state. I'd say she would win a primary against Gregg if she were to enter. That's why Gregg said in an interview a few months back that he didn't think she was interested in running. It's pretty clear she is.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Canada-PM: 100 seats for the NDP?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com...

The latest poll by EKOS Research has the Conservatives at 34 per cent, narrowly ahead of the NDP at 28 per cent, with the Liberals at 24 per cent, with the Bloc at 6.2 per cent. Based on those numbers, EKOS is projecting that the Conservatives would see their seat count shrink to 131, while the NDP soared to 100, the Liberals fell to 62 and the Bloc was reduced to a mere 14 seats.

But there's serious doubt, ref the Nate of the north, http://threehundredeight.blogs...

And that's why we shouldn't be so sure that these levels of support for the New Democrats will hold on Monday night. It isn't because the pollsters are wrong - they are tracking voting intentions after all. But correctly capturing the ability of these intentions to turn into votes is a very different thing for a party like the New Democrats, despite polls showing respondents "certain" to vote for them and unlikely to change their minds. Polls tracking the likelihood of Canadians actually voting often overestimate turnout by as much as a third.

He still has a C/L/N/B distribution of 146/75/43/43


NDP is the most liberal major party in Canada, right?


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Most liberal major party...
They'd be the progressives in the US.  The Liberals would be the moderates and the Conservatives would be blue dogs.  

[ Parent ]
Best reasonable outcome...
Would be Conservatives losing some seats but still keeping the minority Government, which would likely force Harper to resign.  He's such a lightweight with no international stature.  Also for the NDP have more seats than the Liberals, or at least really close so when they talk about formally merging, the NDP will be in those talks from a position of strength.  

A formal NDP-Liberal merge would shift the balance of power, and completely marginalize the Bloc to the point I think they'd fade away as a party.  


[ Parent ]
harper?
what about iggy?  between their weak showings of the last few elections and the "residency" issue of seeming like an american and a possible third place showing, will he survive this election?  I'm not saying Canadian residency should be a requisite for office any more than VT residency should be a requisite for the VT governorship.  However, this issue has been such a distraction to iggy, he hasn't been able to avoid it, he doesn't have much else to offer and replacing a party leader isn't like replacing a governor or senator. why not get someone else?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
If Iggy's Liberals fall behind the NDP
There will be a push for Justin Trudeau. I have no idea if he's ready, willing, or even able.

I'd guess Bob Rae, former NDP premier of Ontario.


[ Parent ]
marginalize the Bloc?
That doesn't make any sense to me.  Prior to this election, the NDP has pretty much been a non-entity in Quebec.  (The NDP doesn't run candidates in Quebec elections and won only 1 Québécois riding in the last Federal election) How would merging with the Liberals change that dynamic?


28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
I think a merged Liberal/NDP...
Could get a majority.  There was over 50 ridings where the NDP and Liberal candidates split the left vote in a way that allowed the Conservative to win in the riding.  If there was only one choice - Conservative or Lib/NDP - I think Lib/DP would get 55-60% of that vote.  And if they just got a majority government, the Bloc would be the kingmaker and if the Lib/NDP didn't budge on sovereignty issues then the Bloc would have to choose to defeat the Government that they'd otherwise agree with or at least be much closer to on policy issues than with the Conservatives, or support the government and forget about Quebec sovereignty garbage. And if they defeated the Lib/NDP government because of sovereignty, I think Quebecers would eventually get tired of the Bloc and the expense of elections because of the Bloc blackmail attempts no longer working.    

[ Parent ]
How much of the Liberal party would turn Conservative
under that scenario, throughout Canada?

As for Quebec, they've stayed with the PQ in some fashion for nearly 40 years.

While I think Quebec should stay with Canada, their push for soverignty is --not-- garbage. Before the PQ, Quebecqois were second-class citizens in their own province.


[ Parent ]
Depends Where
In a lot of places like Toronto Liberal voters vote liberal because the NDP is non-viable. Ditto for Quebec. Out west however, especially in BC and northern Ontario where there is a strong NDP, a lot of Liberal voters are closer to downscale blue collar Democrats, and really really don't like them.

It also depends a lot on what the policies of the merged party were. A Liberal absorption of the NDP would probably keep Liberals in line, but cause NDP defections to the greens. An NDP takeover would probably result in about a 65/35 split between the new party and the Tories. With the caveat that if the NDP ever behaved in government at the Federal level the way they behaved when they held power in BC and Ontario, that would rapidly collapse.


26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent


[ Parent ]
Eh
The Bloc has existed since the 90s.  They've been there under Liberal majority governments and Liberal minority governments.  While they wouldn't have Harper as a foil anymore, there still would be other issues that would continue their relevance.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Color me skeptical
I don't profess to know any great deal about Canadian politics, but I don't think a 538-style model would really work outside of the US as well as it has for Nate. Here we're inundated with polls for months (and even years) from an election, there they've got a six-week campaign and they're done. From what little I've read about his statistical model, it doesn't seem to be well-suited for a short, dynamic campaign.

I also don't think this is going to be another bust like it was for the LibDems last year. The NDP has a more consolidated base of support, so they're not just going to see a bunch of ridings where they gain 5% of the vote but still lose. Until a few days ago I figured they'd gain seats but still lag the Liberals, but now I think they have a shot at becoming the official opposition.


[ Parent ]
The NDP is in uncharted waters
I'm not sure that the NDP has ever even polled this highly since it was formed. They've never won more than 40 something seats, IIRC.

[ Parent ]
1988
There was an article - over in the Globe & Mail I think - that said this has some similarities to the '88 campaign, where the NDP at one point opened up a massive lead over the other parties, polling in the 40th percentile before crashing back to earth. They noted a few differences, though, such as the fact that those leads came at the start of the campaign and gradually deflated, unlike the current ones which seem to be peaking near the end.  

[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting article about the various prediction attempts in Canada:
[ Parent ]
Excellent stuff
One thing that matches what we've seen here -- is how predictions based on past polls miss late breaking trends. To that end, the article links to http://www.cusjc.ca/?p=1582, with

Often, the final results overshoot the initial wave. Momentum builds and begins to sweep into ridings that most think are not in play. I've been involved in dozens of CBC projection meetings where seasoned political reporters said that it was inconceivable that certain ridings and personalities were lost. And yet they were

echoes of our 2010? The link lists other instances where the lack of an NDP ground game was irrelevant.

All of the sudden, this feels like the week before Reagan was elected, but this time in favor of the NDP.

80-100+ seats for the NDP feels credible all of the sudden.


[ Parent ]
trippi
also worked for doug racine's 2010 gubernatorial campaign back in 2010.  racine was about 4th in fundraising, but came within 300 votes of winning the nomination.  of course, that was only 25% of the vote for a former Lt. Gov and 2002 nominee who received scads of endorsements, so make of trippi what you will.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Way off-topic
I just read on CNBC Obama release his birth certificate, is this true?  If it is, its hillarious, with all of the GOP candidates truggling to define themselves suddenly the birther movement has some internally questioning to do.

It'll probably be along the lines of "How can we calim this is a forgery" and "Can we find the Kenyan doctor who delivered Obama as a baby" and so on.

Trump, in the CNBC post, was claiming victory/accomplishment.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42780335


"Way off-topic" is right
We almost made it the whole morning without a discussion of this. I'd really, really, really like SSP to be the one place people can go today without having to deal with this. Thanks.

[ Parent ]
Thanks David!
I came here to get away from this

[ Parent ]
Daniel Fanning
His only YouTube presence is at an IVAW for the 5th anniversary of the Iraq War (Winter Soldier). He's pretty well-spoken, and appears to have what it takes to be a great candidate. But the involvement with the antiwar movement could hurt him with some of the American Legion-types who would otherwise be impressed by his status as a veteran.

Video link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)


Need to be very, very careful
Using the word "antiwar." Fanning appeared at an event for IVAW - a group opposed to the Iraq war specifically. "Antiwar" is a much broader term which generally means pacifist, and opposed to pretty much all wars. Fanning says right at the start of that video that he's not opposed to all wars - just dumb wars. So calling him "antiwar" is incorrect.

[ Parent ]
My understanding
was that the term could be used to indicate opposition to specific wars, especially when describing movements.  

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

[ Parent ]
I've almost always undertood the term
"Antiwar movement" to refer to pacifists who more or less oppose all wars. Part of the problem with the phrase is that you mashup two words - "anti" and "war" - which has the effect of not making it clear which war you mean. That's deliberate, because "war" in that sense means the concept of war in general. Fanning is opposed to the Iraq war, not war as a concept.

[ Parent ]
You've got it historically backwards
Antiwar traditionally means anti-this-war.  The Vietnam antiwar Movement was anti-Vietnam, period.  It was, generally, explicitly not anti-war-in-general.

In contrast pacifism is not "antiwar" any more than you would call yourself "anti-Republican" as a synonym for Democrat.

Antiwar is situational, opposed to a specific war.
Pacifism is not situational, it opposes all wars.


[ Parent ]
I disagree 100%
There is nothing in the word "war" that identifies a specific war. It is, by definition, generic.

[ Parent ]
No,obviously it is by definition not generic
"antiwars" would be generic.  "antiwar" is singular, relating to a single war.

[ Parent ]
Is "pro-life" intended
for the life of one fetus? Or "anti-corporate" against a single corporation? Or how about "anti-union"? Or "pro-gay"?

It's obvious these words are used generically.


[ Parent ]
Well
I happen to think you've got it wrong. If someone says "I'm antiwar," you're not specifying which war when you say that, and particularly at a time when there's more than one war going on, it's not helpful at all. For instance, you could support Afghanistan and oppose Iraq.

FWIW, Wikipedia says (right at the top):

An anti-war movement (also antiwar) is a social movement, usually in opposition to a particular nation's decision to start or carry on an armed conflict, unconditional of a maybe-existing just cause. The term can also refer to pacifism, which is the opposition to all use of military force during conflicts.

Anyhow, you can obviously use the term however you like. But I think a lot of Democratic candidates would not want to be labeled as "antiwar" if, for instance, they have views like Fanning's.


[ Parent ]
It can, but 99% of the times isn't isn't
George McGovern was an antiwar candidate.
George McGovern was also a decorated war hero.

An antiwar candidate is someone opposing a specific war.  See Wendall Wilkie, etc etc.

In particular, military veterans run as antiwar candidates, and create antiwar organizations like the explicitly "antiwar" Vietnam Veterans Against the War.

Maybe it is an age thing, but no one alive during the Vietnam era or familiar with the antiwar movement would consider the word "antiwar" as to mean generic pacifism.  


[ Parent ]
Are MO Legislators the new Keystone Kops?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Why
Do you have to slander the Keystone Kops like that?

BTW Take a look at this gem;

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Keystone Kops is one of those subjects so often used, but most people have never actually seen.


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Keystone Kops
I saw them several times on Turner Classic Movies.  And their incompetence was purposefully funny.  With most legislators, it's just sad, even if as Democrats we take a certain schaudenfreude pleasure in watching Republicans screw up.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

[ Parent ]
schaudenfreude or gallows humor?
As incompetent as the GOP redistrciting efforts have been, they are dancing on the grave of Russ Carnahan.

Even a veto and court drawn map likely won't save Carnahan now.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Schadenfreude
The MO SC will probably draw a 5-2-1 map with the swing district being one Dems could win in 2012.  Also, the state legislative maps will be ungerrymandered and quite a bit more competitive, which is good for Democrats there.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
To put it simply
I'd far rather the MO SC draw all the maps.  

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
When one looks at its make-up
one gets confident in betting on what they could draw.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
According to Politico
"Carnahan's best hope - and the fear of everyone else in the Missouri delegation - is that the heavily Republican Legislature will deadlock and an appellate court will draw the lines."

Any idea if this is correct and it goes to an appellate court, not the SCOMO?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
It doesn't say....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
oops
thought you were asking about the makeup of the appellate court

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Looks like it's not the SCoMO
From the wikipedia entry you linked;

"the Supreme Court exclusive jurisdiction- the sole legal power to hear - five types of cases on appeal. Pursuant to Article V, Section 3 of the Missouri Constitution, these cases involve: The validity of a United States statute or treaty. The validity of a Missouri statute or constitutional provision. The state's revenue laws.
Challenges to a statewide elected official's right to hold office. Imposition of the death penalty.

Unless their case involves one of those five issues, people who want a trial court's decision reviewed must appeal to the Missouri Court of Appeals"

We are seriously in the weeds looking at the appeals courts in MO, first of all there are three (STL, KC & Springfield) and I have no idea which it would go to and even then i'm sure the whole appealate court wouldn't get tasked with the map, but likely a group of 3-5, and who the hell knows who would pick them or whom they would pick. Sounds like the makings of a real Goat Rope.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Getting further into the weeds
I have no idea if the Chief Justice of the SC of MO would appoint the judges to draw the redistricting lines, but if he did the current Chief Justice is Bill Price, appointed by Governor John Ashcroft...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
court
Would a court necessarily screw Carnahan? The greater St. Louis area is almost big enough to support 3 districts and if they decided to go interior/northern suburbs + exurbs/southern suburbs + exurbs he'd probably still have a good shot at the southern district. Even if they put all of St. Louis into Clay's district and the rest of St. Louis county into the new MO2, I suspect he'd be competitive there if they filled up the rest of MO2 from Jefferson county. From St. Charles county, not so much.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
They'd make his district harder
Like closer to D+0 so they can expand Clay's district.  But yes, it would be very competitive.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Doubt it
Any court will put all of STL City and the AA portions of STL county (North County) into Lacy Clay's 1st CD. If you then make the Missouri river a natural boundry for the western edge of the 2nd (thus putting all of St. Charles county into the new 3rd) the 2nd would take in the rest of St. Louis County and the eastern half of Jefferson county.

That 2nd district would likely still be about R+3/4 and would make Wagner sweat, but IMO it would take a miracle for Carnahan to win.

We've spoken at far to long a length about what the 5th would look like, IMO a court would again use the river as a boundry and put all of Jackson County in with KC proper and grab the needed population from Cass county to the South. I'd think that's a D+3/4 CD and (again just IMO) Cleaver whould have a difficult time keeping that in '12 or especially '14, but would likely go D and stay D with a non-KC-centric Dem nominee.

I'd call it a 6-1-1 map, if someone wants to run those PVI's to prove me wrong I'd love to see it.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
At the very least
it would be 6-2, but the state legislative map would be more palatable for Dems.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
MO5
I think your new MO5 with Jackson county and most of Cass would be about D+7. Jackson is D+9 and would have about 90% of the population, and Cass is R+13 but presumably the reddest parts would be left out of MO5. It would be very hard for any Republican to win a general there given that the bluest seat they hold now is D+4. (Dold's district is listed at D+6 but its rating is distorted by the favorite-son effect in 2008. I think it's really D+4.) Cleaver might have problems in a primary, though. As a group, the current reps of D+7 districts (Carney, Loebsack, Ruppersberger, Tierney, Carnahan, Lujan, Schwartz) are more moderate than he is.

I can't try to estimate the new MO2 without precinct-level or at least city-level data.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Maybe not even that close
Did some back of the envelope calculations adding Jackson County to KC, this doesn't include whatever other portions of neighborhing counties would be added (Cass being most likely IMO since it's already in the 5th and would allow the MO river to form the Northern boundry of the new 5th) and I got a PVI of D+11

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
MO5 again
The current MO5 is D+10 and it would have to add even more blue areas to get to D+11. The quick and dirty method I use to estimate county PVIs is (Obama margin - 7)/2. He won Jackson by 25, hence D+9.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I didn't include Cass
I was just doing KC & Jackson County as a though experiment, I'm sure whatever parts a court would add to the 5th would lower the Dem PVIadvantage slightly.  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
BTW
Your calculus proves my point, in (granted a very bad year) off year election in a 5th I've described as being likely from a court, Cleaver might well have lost.

I re-state again that I do NOT see any way for a GOPer to hold that seat afterwards, but if Cleaver is eventually replaced by a white Dem from outside of KC its still a loss as far as the KC/AA community is concerned.

I know Dold won a D+4/6, but I'm sure that's not the most D-leaning district a GOPer has won against a candidate not in the Rostenkowsky/Jefferson mold (anyone else remember Michael Flanagan in '94? Easily the deadest Dead Man Walking ever, and he lost to whom? Blogo!).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Recent history (i.e. under the current maps)
Jim Leach and Mike Castle both held D+7 seats, and Rob Simmons held a D+6 seat. I'm pretty sure those three and Dold are the only Republicans to have held a seat above D+5 this decade, discounting the Cao and Djou flukes.

[ Parent ]
Can we please put away this assertion that Cleaver would somehow be DOA in a Jackson County-centric district?
Jackson County hasn't gone Republican in a federal election since 1998. Even when Robin Carnahan lost by double-digits, she won 54% in Jackson County.

In your hypothetical Jackson + Cass district (which I calculated just by multiplying the Cass numbers by 75%, since it would be about 75% of the county, and would probably not deviate much from the countywide result), I came up with it being a 60-39 Obama and 56-43 Kerry district. That's about 3-4 points less Democratic than the district is now. Even Robin Carnahan would have won the theoretical district in 2010 by 51.6% to 44.4%.

Do you know how many seats the Republicans hold that are that Democratic? One, Bob Dold in IL-10. And that can be chalked up to Obama overperforming in Illinois. I'm not saying it would be a super-safe district, but it would be Democratic enough to prevent all but the most unappealing Democratic candidate losing. I'm sure Cleaver would probably be vulnerable in a primary, but he wouldn't lose a general.

In 2010, Cleaver won 53-44, so a swing of 3-4 points would probably give him a narrow 2-3% victory. He also didn't spend much money in 2010, only about $607k, which was a little more than twice what Jacob Turk spent ($264k). If he sensed vulnerability, he probably would have put together a stronger campaign.


[ Parent ]
Perhaps
You assume that Cleaver would do as well in the additional portions of Jackson & Cass counties as a generic Dem. I doubt that is true.

I firmly believe that IF any GOPer did beat Cleaver they would be promptly defeated in the following election so long as the Dems nominated someone who is less KC/Urban-centric (and let's face it, not AA).

Thus far I have seen no evidence to dissuade me from this opinion, and I readily agree there remains a real probability of Cleaver surviving no matter what the lines are, but I'm not the only one who thinks Cleaver could be vulnerable. The local GOP is very bullish on their prospects vs Cleaver is such a district (though they also think they could hold it afterward, which again I dissagree with) and the actions of the AA grasstops in pushing for such a strange gerrymander of the 5th shows they feel Cleaver at least could be vulnerable.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Why I think Nixon will sign the GOP Map
Crunching numbers...assuming a court drawn 5th with all of Jackson County included.

2010 Jackson county (not including KC)
Turk, Hartzler & Graves total vote 69,248
Cleaver, Skelton, Hylton total vote 44,506*
That's a 24,742 GOP margin (*Safe to say in the same environment a GOP candidate would significantly outperform Cleaver vs Hartzler's margin over Skelton)

2010 Kansas City only
Turk total vote 22,708
Cleaver ttl vote 61,887
Thats a 39,179 Dem margin

Total for a 5th CD of KC, All jackson county
Dem Congressional Margin of +14,437

If I had to guess I'd say a court drawn 5th would be KC, all of JC and Cass county north of Harrisonville (to add the 70k ppl needed to match population).

How hard would it be to make up 14.5k raw votes out of 70k residents of Cass county (minus any improved margin for the precinct previously in MO-4)?  

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
That vote is slightly skewed since Graves was an incumbent and didn't face a serious opponent
also, it would probably be pretty hard to make that up considering those are the vote margins from 2010.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
you miss the point
I doubt Cleaver would do much better in Graves precints, and certainly wouldn't get anywhere near Skelton's votes in what is now Hartzler's district.

Thend result is that Cleaver would be in for a serious race in '14, and though a GOPer would be toast in '16 the Dem who wins that district is far too likely to be from outside KC and White.

That will make the AA grasstops seriously angry and if they are feeling at all spiteful Nixon would be in deep deep trouble for reelection.

Thus my theory that he will sign the map, too many enemies to be made with a veto.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Are you getting dizzy from all that spin?
Cleaver won 64-32 in 2006, and Karen McCarthy won 66-32 in 2002. Clearly the problem is not midterms, but rather that 2010 was an extraordinarily Republican year, especially in Missouri.

Also, how is approving a district that goes through 57-42 McCain Lafayette County and into two other ultra-white counties going to make the AA community any happier?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
So I'm reading this article
Mocking Donald Trump for citing imaginary polls.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Then I get to the end where they talk about PPP finding him ahead with Republicans.

"PPP uses a methodology which CNN, as well as other news organizations, does not consider to be reliable.

I simply do not understand this fallacy about automated polling.



For unstudied political journalists, Rasmussen probably poisoned the well for robopolls......
Rasmussen had a rise and off-the-cliff fall in stature that really hurts robpolling's reputation.  If you're not studied on the specific distinctions in methodologies between various polling organizations, then it's easy to write off robopolls because of Rassy's major fail.

SUSA, too, hurt robopolling somewhat last year.  While I realize studies by Nate Silver and others validated their polling overall, SUSA had some big stinkers that stood out and hurt their reputation.  VA-05 was the big one, where they were waaaaaay off at all times, badly enough to justifiably question their entire methodology--Perriello was never down by anything remotely close to 20-25 points as their polling routinely showed.

PPP is later to the public polling party, becoming more active and conspicuous years after Rasmussen and SUSA.  They'll get their due in due time, but they're going to have to nail 2012 Presidential and Senate results to earn it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA did pretty well in the end
They do seem to have a particular problem in VA-05 though going back to 2008.

[ Parent ]
Maybe the large student population?
Just a thought.  

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
Especially as the massive Republican leads date back to each summer.

[ Parent ]
NV-Pres: Obama at 45/52 approval, down 3 to Mitt, up 2, 4, 6 over Huck, Newt, Trump
All the more amazing
How well he is doing in North Carolina.

[ Parent ]
not that surprising
The sample skewed really, really old. Even if you give Obama a few points based on that he's looking worse than he did in 2008 there. Nevada has the nation's worst economy and that probably helped him as the insurgent in 2008 just as it is hurting him as the incumbent in 2012.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
I'll take it at face value
But there may well be something to the difficulty people have polling Hispanics in the state. He is only beating Romney and Huckabee by about 25 points with those voters when he beat McCain by more than 50. Still, the toplines are comparable to the national numbers we are seeing at the moment.

[ Parent ]
I just assume all Nevada polls are slightly off
After every single poll missed Obama's actual margin in 2008, and every single poll said Angle would win a clear victory, I just assume polls need to include a Spanish-language option to accurately poll Nevada.

With that being said, Romney is a problem because he can motivate the Mormon vote.  


[ Parent ]
Funny
All the GOPers at SSP are bashing PPP's NV poll for being too D heavy vs exit polls.

I think the safest assumption is that anyone who polls Nevada has gotten it wrong.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Nice try
As I've said time and time again they have a history of accuracy, if not a GOP lean, but a history of underpolling Democrats in this particular state.

[ Parent ]
Still funny
I think they key problem on the GOP side is that pppolling doesn't weight for party identification, thus their partisan breakdown will never match exit poll numbers.

In as state growing as fast as Nevada the MoE for the poll might actually be smaller than the margin of change within the voter demographics (ok not really, but still a HUGE seachange compared to larger and/or stagnant states).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Seriously?
My mom says I'm super funny.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Mom always knows best


[ Parent ]
I sincerely hope
you didn't tell her that Maureen Reagan "joke."

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Actuallu
My mom is the exact kind of person the joke was about, people who always think the last person to give an incumbent any kind of a race would be the best candidate to replace them.

More specifically, even though my mom hate The Blues Brothers, the one line always guaranteed to get her laughing out loud is "No mame Mayor Daley no longer dines here, he's dead mame".

Take that for what its worth.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
She must have the patience of a saint.


[ Parent ]
Exit polls aren't a gold standard
They're just as open to being flawed as pre-election polls. Plus they tend to get re-weighted anyway once the results are in; remember the ND poll that said McCain was winning by double-digits?

[ Parent ]
I've said this before
The partisan breakdown of the exit poll is no more or less valid than the partisan breakdown of any individual poll, they don't have any more less information about it, and unlike demographics, it's extremely fluid.

I don't get the criticism that PPP's polls aren't reflecting the partisan breakdown of the exit poll, when no one has given me a good reason to believe that the partisan breakdown of the exit poll itself should be a benchmark to use.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Exit polls are more reliable
When you consider the huge sample size. We are talking 3,000 plus voters as opposed to 500 or so in a pre-election poll. I'm talking crosstabs here rather than toplines. Obviously they have a history of being highly misleading in favor of Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.

[ Parent ]
Exit Polls
Are also more accurate because you are getting 3,000+ actual Voters (assuming people didn't just go in to get a free sticker).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Actually, the large sample size is meant to compensate for a weakness of exit polls
Exit polls use cluster sampling, which increases the margin of error.

Actually, there's a really good article about it from Mark Blumenthal from 2004:

Unfortunately, calculating the margin of error gets a lot more complicated for an exit poll. The reason is that exit polls use "cluster sampling." Since it is wildly impractical to station interviewers at every polling place (the U.S. has roughly 225,000 voting precincts), exit pollsters sample in two stages: They first randomly select precincts within a state, then randomly intercept voters as they exit the selected polling places. Unfortunately, this clustering of interviews within precincts adds variability and error. Generally speaking, the additional error is a function of the number of clusters and the variability across clusters of the thing being measured. Error will INCREASE in a cluster sample (as compared to error for simple random sampling) as...

   The number of clusters decreases relative to the number of interviews or
   The thing being measured differs across clusters (or precincts)

Read the whole thing, but the point is, exit polls need to compensate for the increased margin of error by getting more respondents.

This applies double for the partisan breakdown, BTW.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Shoot forgot the link
http://www.mysterypollster.com...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Curious
If anyone has gone back and looked at the historical swing in voter's partisan identification in PPPolling's Nevada releases and compared them to exit polls?

I'm certainly not going to do it, but it would be an interesting excercise. If only I had an intern (or wasn't saddled with this stupid day job).

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Yes
I've talked about it ad nauseum for the last two years.

[ Parent ]
In a diary?
or just in comments? Much like the FEC filings of the various committees & candidates, you often see snippets, but rarely do you see the info properly amalgamated so as to provide a useful benchmarks.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Comments
But in general, not specifically for Nevada. Anyway, I thought the beef you guys had with PPP was with their ideological breakdown not partisan identification?

[ Parent ]
Not me!
I've actually stood up for PPP here and at RRH, IMO weighting for partisan ID messes up results more than it helps, for one you don't catch changes in the electorate, but also you are making assumptions on what the electorate will look like that makes it too easy to manipulate the results to suit the narrative you want. Both are bad for doing your actual job in polling...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Nevada
Final PPP poll -

Reid job approval 42-55
Obama job approval 41-56
2008 vote Obama 50-46
41 D, 40 R, 19 I
69 White, 20 Latino, 8 Black
17 liberal, 42 moderate , 41 conservative
18 to 29 10%
30 to 45 30%
46 to 65 34%
Over 65  26%

Exit poll -

Reid job approval 44-54
Obama job approval 46-52
2008 vote Obama 46-42
35 D, 33 R, 32 I
71 White, 16 Latino, 6 Black
19 liberal, 41 moderate, 40 conservative
18 to 29 12%
30 to 45 21%
46 to 65 45%
Over 65  22%


[ Parent ]
THx!
I won't ask you to do the same for today's NV poll vs '08 exit polls.

But if you are bored...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Never bored of this stuff
PPP poll -

45 D, 35 R, 20 I
72 White, 16 Latino, 8 Black
Very liberal 10%
Somewhat liberal 19%
Moderate 28%
Somewhat conservative 25%
Very conservative 18%
18 to 29  6%
30 to 45 25%
46 to 65 48%
Over 65  21%

2008 exit poll -

38 D, 30 R, 32 I
69 White, 15 Latino, 10 Black
22 liberal, 44 moderate, 34 conservative
18 to 29 17%
30 to 45 33%
46 to 65 36%
Over 65  15%


[ Parent ]
and thus the griping at RRH
IF you believe the '08 exits are indicative of what the '12 poll weighting should be (note from above I do NOT!) Then you have a poll sample that's bias +7 for Dems, +5 for GOPers and a shocking -12 for independents.

What was the this pppolling results spread among indys?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Their final 2010 poll also
Severely undersampled indies. This happens in state after state yet the toplines are accurate if not Republican leaning.

[ Parent ]
Why?
If they are consistently undersampling Indys and getting a consistent GOP lean there must be another underlying demo error, kind of a two lefts gives you a right.

I used to do this for a living but that was a long time ago and I find it far more tedious than interesting now.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I think it has a lot to do wth methodology of robopolls
Bringing out partisans. The most important number in my mind is the gap between Democratic and Republican indentifiers. If that is wrong it will skew the numbers much more than not having enough indies in the sample.

[ Parent ]
two lefts don't give you a right
They give you a U-turn. However three lefts will give you a right.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
age
Younger voters are much more likely to identify as independents, and PPP undersampled them.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Yes, my default is to ignore NV polling
Though to be honest, I think the right mental adjustment is to assume more Democratic strength than is reflected.  

[ Parent ]
Oh, I actually do think PPP's model is off on Nevada (and most states)
They're playing with voter models close to voter registration, which is fine and safe at this early point. However, in all likelihood, the actual voting electorate will be more favorable to the GOP. The question is whether it's a tiny bit more favorable or a modest amount more. I happen to think, considering PPP's cross-tabs, Heller's actually up by about 10 over Berkley.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Er
Based on what exactly? When they changed to likely voters last year there was hardly any change. And they are basically finding the same thing as other polls when they exist. The best example being NC-Gov.

[ Parent ]
Not following this
The actual 2010 electorate in Nevada was overall significantly more Democratic than that which the polls forecast.  Why would the electorate be more Republican than the polls in 2012, with higher presidential year turnout and it being doubtful (at best) that public opinion will be as pro-GOP (or, better put, anti-Dem) than in 2010?

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

[ Parent ]
As their new blurb at the bottom of each memo says
"PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward
Republican candidates."

[ Parent ]
So do you think that Heller is leading Berkley with Hispanics?
Come on, give me a break.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm not saying that at all
I can't take issue with PPP's crosstabs. My beef is with their voter models.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You mean where they weight
For age, race and gender but not party?

[ Parent ]
No, I'm talking strictly on party
I never tinker with the age/race/gender/ideology/income crosstabs.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Do you care to say why you think this?
With PPP using a soft likely voter screen a year and a half from the election, and with Obama's turnout machine (and the strong NVDP turnout machine) going to be at full power, I think the burden of proof falls on you.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Are you suggesting they should?
I'm not sure what your point is.

[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
I'm of the mindset that LV models should always be used, no matter how early out from election day, and that's surely not something that most pollsters would agree with me upon. So, I take matters into my own hands by tinkering with the current RV models. As highlighted in your audits, I'm often off with my models, but, then again, so are a lot of pollsters when they begin conjuring up LV models. I believe RV models are naturally favorable to Democrats b/c Republicans tend to better GOTV, plus youths and blacks - two key Democratic blocks - tend not to show up. The old white GOP-ers do. That's just how it is. RV models don't take this into account.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
For one thing, PPP isn't RV
for another, your argument is way too general. It's certainly true in some cases, I don't deny it. But in a presidential year where Obama's turnout operation will be in full force, as will the NVDP's, I don't find that convincing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not necessarily
I'm of the mindset that LV models should always be used, no matter how early out from election day, and that's surely not something that most pollsters would agree with me upon. So, I take matters into my own hands by tinkering with the current RV models. As highlighted in your audits, I'm often off with my models, but, then again, so are a lot of pollsters when they begin conjuring up LV models. I believe RV models are naturally favorable to Democrats b/c Republicans tend to better GOTV, plus youths and blacks - two key Democratic blocks - tend not to show up. The old white GOP-ers do. That's just how it is. RV models don't take this into account.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The problem with that
Being early likely voter models favor Republicans because Democrats often need more persuasion. You make some reasonable points though which is why I think the hybrid model PPP uses is a great way to conduct polls at this stage.

[ Parent ]
Audit of your models
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Arkansas
D - 40%
R - 38%
I - 22%

Exit poll - 34 D, 29 R, 37 I

California
D - 43%
R - 34%
I - 23%

Exit poll - 42 D, 31 R, 27 I

Colorado
R - 36%
D - 32%
I - 32%

Exit poll - 33 D, 28 R, 39 I

Connecticut
D - 44%
R - 32%
I - 24%

Exit poll - 39 D, 28 R, 33 I

Florida
D - 38%
R - 38%
I - 24%

Exit poll - 36 D, 36 R, 29 I

Illinois
D - 47%
R - 34%
I - 19%

Exit poll - 44 D, 31 R, 24 I

Indiana
R - 46%
D - 38%
I - 16%

Exit poll - 31 D, 42 R, 27 I

Iowa
R - 38%
D - 37%
I - 25%

Exit poll - 31 D, 35 R, 34 I

Kentucky
D - 47%
R - 43%
I - 10%

Exit poll - 38 D, 40 R, 22 I

Louisiana
R - 45%
D - 43%
I - 12%  

Exit poll - 36 D, 40 R, 24 I

Missouri
D - 40%
R - 38%
I - 22%

Exit poll - 34 D, 37 R, 28 I

Nevada
D - 43%
R - 34%
I - 23%

Exit poll - 35 D, 33 R, 32 I

New Hampshire
I - 37%
R - 32%
D - 31%

Exit poll - 27 D, 30 R, 44 I

New York
D - 50%
R - 30%
I - 20%

Exit poll - 45 D, 27 R, 28 I

Ohio
D - 42%
R - 36%
I - 22%

Exit poll - 36 D, 37 R, 28 I

Oregon
D - 38%
R - 33%
I - 29%

Exit poll - 36 D, 26 R, 38 I

Pennsylvania
D - 46%
R - 42%
I - 12%

Exit poll - 40 D, 37 R, 23 I

Washington
D - 36%
R - 32%
I - 32%

Exit poll - 35 D, 23 R, 42 I

West Virginia
D - 48%
R - 39%
I - 13%

Exit poll - 41 D, 35 R, 24 I

Wisconsin
D - 39%
R - 38%
I - 23%

Exit poll - 37 D, 36 R, 28 I



[ Parent ]
I understated Independent turnout across-the-board
In most cases, however, my D-R margin was pretty close to the exit polling. Thanks for this.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Understating indies
Kinda like PPP! I would say you got about a third pretty close, a third too Democratic and another third too Republican.

[ Parent ]
no
I think you're way, way off on this one. PPP's sample was just 33% under 45, when the 2008 exit poll was 50% under 45. The under-45s went for Obama nearly 2-1. If anything I think Berkley and Heller are tied.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Snore... another PPP poll with a sample extremely different than actual turnout
Take it for what it is. The topline is 100% irrelevant.

If turnout in 2012 is similar to this sample, this is the result.
If turnout in 2012 is similar to 2008, then Obama beats by over 5% and less than 10%, and beats the others by about 10%.

This sample does not accurately reflect 2008 turnout... which is fine because 2012 turnout will be whatever it is in 2012, but all this poll is (like any poll) is a reflection of a voter sample that may or may not be similar to actual turnout.  


[ Parent ]
Reid will have vote on Ryan budget.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Fuckyes
Let's get Brown and Snowe on the record. Although I have a sinking feeling Brown might be smart enough to vote against it.

[ Parent ]
I think Brown and Snowe both vote no


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
But if Snowe votes no
She's in more danger in a primary.

It's a win-win for us.


[ Parent ]
Does anyone understand why she is running in the primary?
I have been trying to figure this one out for a while. She has a 65% approval rating in Maine. She should easily win with no work if she stayed in the Republican Caucus, but ran has an independent.  

[ Parent ]
She wants to be a Republican...
I think she sees running as an independent as a chicken way out.  She could have left the party over the last two years to become an indie and been freed up to vote, but voted the party line.  Running as an indie is probably a lot more work, and could split the GOP vote with the GOP candidate and encourage a stronger Dem to get in.  

I think she voted too party line in the last congress and it would open her up to a strong Dem challenge in a three way race.

Not saying that she won't drop out later to run as an indie if she sees the writing on the wall, but staying as a Republican now is probably easier on her re-election bid for fundraising and to keep any committee assignments.  Also it would keep out the stronger GOP challengers.  If she runs as an indie a better caliber far right candidate might run for the GOP nod, making it harder for her to win as an indie candidate.  


[ Parent ]
Disagree, I think a "no" might be a no-brainer for her......
Abolishing Medicare and some of the other stuff in the Ryan budget is extreme enough that I think Snowe easily can vote "no" without serious blowback even among Republicans.

All the public polling shows Republicans very divided on this, the House GOPers stunning unity in voting for it disguises a deep internal division.

Plus there's a certain "authenticity" issue she has to consider.  She's not like John McCain who was always a reliable conservative but had a big mouth and used it to poke his own party in the eye sometimes.  In contrast, Snowe is truly center-right, always has been, and can't really abandon that without looking two-faced to friends and foes alike.

All of this doesn't even consider that I think she might have more integrity than the average Republican officeholder.  She's already bolted from her party on a bunch of things that piss off wingnuts a lot more than supporting Medicare.

I'll be shocked if we don't get "no" votes from all three between Snowe, Collins, and Scott Brown.

And I bet Lugar, too, votes "no."  He, too, has poked a finger in teabaggers' eyes a few times in recent months and seems to feel OK with doing that.

On top of that, I won't be surprised if a bunch of purple state Republicans surprise and vote "no," simply because McConnell is not going to want to whip this vote.  I bet he'd rather leave Boehner et al. hanging and hope the mere fact we're so far from the 2012 election makes the whole issue moot.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I could see 20+ no votes
I think a lot of GOP reps will take cover from the fact that the Gang Of Six is still working on their budget and they vote no in order to let their colleagues finish their work.  

Coburn, Crapo, Chambliss as part of the Gang of Six will lead the effort with Brown, Collins, Snowe, Corker, Murkowski, Luger, KBH, Rubio, Kirk, McCain, Kyl, Heller, Ayotte, Burr, Graham, Shelby, Isakson voting No.  


[ Parent ]
I want to bookmark your comment!
OK, I've never seen anyone predict an intraparty-divided roll call!

If you're on the money, or even close, I'll petition DavidNYC to send you a babka!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
MA Legislature passes anti-union bill
http://www.boston.com/news/pol...

Obviously not as bad as the OH or WI bills for public employee unions. Sorry if this is getting into policy a bit but putting this in a political sense I don't see how the MA Democrats attacking their base helps at all..

Not something that I expected to see happen in MA but I guess everybody's jumping on the austerity bandwagon these days. The governor of my old state is leading the charge on the Dem side.(Cuomo)

Depressing.  


Will Deval Patrick veto it?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
It could also get stalled in the State Senate.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Amazingly awful...
What the hell is wrong with these people?

[ Parent ]
The problem in MA is the overwhelming power of the Speaker
See the gambling debate.  The Massachusetts house went from 3/4ers of its members voting against a gambling bill, to 3/4ers voting in favor, just because the the speaker favored the bill, while the old speaker opposed it.  Same thing going on here. DeLeo wanted this bill, so he got what he wanted.  I doubt the Senate or the Governor will be so accommodating.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
One advantage
with such strict term limits here in California we don't produce speakers of the Sheldon Silver variety anymore. Though Willie Brown easily fit the bill when he was still up in Sacramento.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The speaker's only been there since 2009
Our speakers don't last vary long here, in fact, they usually end up in jail.  The problem is that the office simply has too much power.  Not only do they set the agenda, they have complete control over pretty much everything, committee assignments, staff allocations, even parking spots.  Because of this, very few members are willing to buck the will of the speaker.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
I don't get that dynamic.
Can you explain it a little more?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Being in the speaker's circle is critical to being able to get anything done in the state house
The Speaker controls nearly everything from committee assignments, to staff allocations, to what bills get a floor vote.  Pissing off the Speaker is the quick way to backbencher irrelevancy. Therefore, very few Dems are willing to buck the speaker on key votes.  This is also why most of our Speakers end up in jail: Too much power in one place.  Not healthy for Democracy.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
So it's possible
that this vote was not indicative of the opinion of most of these legislators but was instead a move to keep the Speaker happy?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
That's what I'm suggesting
I mean, it's hard to know for certain, but anything pushed by the speaker usually gets approved by the State House overwhelmingly, even if the members voted overwhelmingly in the opposite direction under the old speaker.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
wtf?
this is the weirdest thing I have ever seen. Today on the radio I heard an ad which said that collective bargaining rights workers were under attack in Massachusetts. I just rolled my eyes and thought, "come on guys, that's not going to happen in a state with Democratic supermajorities."

but um, wow. The MA legislature is a special level of craven.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Outsiders always assume MA politics is uniformly liberal
It's far from being so. There's a very big faction of conservative Democrats who would be Republicans in any other state but are Democrats for historical reasons. And because their machines are still effective, they endure.

In fact, Republicans in some ways are a bit like a third party in the state. They only have small numbers in the legislature, but they're able to win statewide races - mostly the governorship but also, as we saw last January, a Senate seat now and then - by basically appealing to whichever components of the Democratic base are unhappy with a particular nominee. Bill Weld appealed to a lot of liberals who weren't willing to vote for RW'er John Silber, and Romney appealed to some of the same set. Meanwhile, Paul Celucci and Scott Brown appealed to a lot of the conservative "ethnic" Dem vote.  


[ Parent ]
Would Cuomo even try to limit collective bargaining
like Walker or some of the others if he wanted to? And has there been any indication he's wanted to go that far?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Nope
Cuomo only wants to curb wage and benefits increases for public unions. That's it. He has said, however, that should unions not comply with such curbs, he'll cut upwards of 10,000 union jobs.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That sounds like a matter of arithmetic
more than anything else.

For all of the talk of a large number of conservative Democrats in Massachusetts, I'd like to know just how many there are. I mean, if there are enough of them, why not just become Republicans and flip the House? A huge number of Democrats in the House voted for that bill, and unless there is a dynamic at play that I just can't fathom, where they really are doing something the speaker wants (but that they themselves might not want?), I don't know what to say. After a certain point, why be a Democrat at all?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Since when are there conservative Democrats in MA?
At best, maybe a tenth of Massachusetts Dems are self-described conservatives. And that's even stretching it.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Self-described is one thing
but the political establishment in MA is controlled by old guard white Catholic conservadems. The same is true in RI (which just got our marriage equality killed, despite huge Dem supermajorities in both chambers and pretty much every statewide official, including governor, supporting it). This is common knowledge to people in both states.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
It seems
even odder that they'd do it if unions are powerful, doesn't it?

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Regarding a Wu Primary
Can someone explain to me why it is necessary to primary David Wu? Is it because he really isn't a good congressman, or is it because of worries that he'd lose the general election? Thanks.

Near scandals, poor performance
The fear is that the voters of OR-01 have had enough of Wu.

Wu has been dripped by controversy since his first campaign, which IIRC had sexist overtones. Then came the allegations of sexual assault that came out in '04, and now the allegations of mental instability (though now he's in treatment). It's enhanced by his relatively low stature in the House, ranking well behind many other members with less seniority (something like #332 in some recent study).  


[ Parent ]
Reid WILL schedule vote on Ryan Budget.
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Good move I think
Snowe and Lugar aye, Scott Brown a no I would guess.

[ Parent ]
That would be my, guess, too.
But still, I fucking love Harry Reid right now.

[ Parent ]
Is
this an up or down vote or do you need to invoke cloture on this?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
GREAT quote from the comments section on that article
From fargo116:
Vote present just like the House democrats did and let's see if the GOP DARES to pass it.


[ Parent ]
As I said below
That wouldn't work. They were able to do that with the knowledge the Senate wouldn't approve it and the House GOP would definitely pass something. It is just as important for Democrats to be seen to vote against it.

[ Parent ]
PPP: PA generic Congressional ballot 42 D, 36 R
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

For perspective, it was 39 D, 48 R in August of 2010.


Weird how the president is taking a dive
While other Democrats rise. I guess being in power does that. I also noticed Rasmussen has the smallest GOP lead on the generic ballot since October 2009.

[ Parent ]
I think the Critz Dems (white, center-right) are still onboard with their party, but not necessarily with Obama


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I also think these polling movements reflect impulsiveness lack of commitment so far from an election......
It's easy to just say anything this far from an election, reacting to the news as it is.  So yeah, being pissed off at everybody in power can simultaneously hurt Obama but help downballot Dems since the GOP cleaned up and gained substantial power last year.

But if the election were just a few months from now instead of more than 18 months from now, poll respondents might be more discerning and concrete in their responses.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I wonder how much it would cost to keep PPP from polling PA
Rendell is now 12% more unfavorable than when he left office (I'm sure an explanation could be made up, but I don't know if it would be sensible).

This poll must have been insanely long for respondents.  it looks like the same 593 respondents answered questions for PPP's last 3 PA poll announcements (presidential horserace, Corbett/Onorato do-over, gay marriage/random favorabilities).  These respondents have the patience of kings (~40 total questions in the survey).

Its also an intriguing point, Toomey and Sestak have the exact same Fav/Unfav/Unsure numbers for all 3.  It seems very odd any electorate would view the 2 men the same, especially a 51D/38R/11I sample.


[ Parent ]
GREAT quote from the comments section on that article
From fargo116:
Vote present just like the House democrats did and let's see if the GOP DARES to pass it.


[ Parent ]
gah, sorry, wrong comment


[ Parent ]
Er no
Then Democrats would be culpable even though Obama would veto.

[ Parent ]
Uhm
A budget resolution never goes to the President's desk. It's stricktly a house/senate framework to guide appropriations, though it really doesn't even do that anymore since giving appropriations carte blanche to break limits for "emergency spending" became standard

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Whatever
I know more about polling than legislative gamesmanship. Anyway, the first part still stands.

[ Parent ]
Bad idea......
The House Dems didn't do that for the Ryan budget, they didn it for the Republican Study Committee budget that was far more draconian, a much more full-blown embrace of social darwinism.  They did that because the Ryan budget otherwise was going to pass near-unanimously anyway, and it was just as well to try to get the House GOP on the record for something even more extreme.  And all this was for something that wasn't going to pass the Senate anyway.

Here, "daring" the Senate GOP to pass the thing actually puts the bill on Obama's desk to force him to veto, and it will have been Senate Democrats' fault that it got that far!

Besides all that, I don't know Senate rules well enough to know if the same stunt can be executed.  The House and Senate follow very different procedural rulebooks.

On top of all this, ultimately the vote will have done its job to either show the GOP in disarray or to put a handful of vulnerable Republicans on the spot, or in the best world, a combination of both.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Again
Budget agreements don't go to the President, they provide the framework for appropriation, only the appropriations bills or tax legislation (Ways & Means) become actual law.

Even the budget agreements don't matter that much because joint budget resolutions between the houses have become extremely rare and can be easily bypassed since it's now standard practice to give appropriations carte blanche to violate caps for "emergency spending" which of course isn't actually defined.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Duh, you're right, as I slap myself on the side of my head......
Of course there's nothing for Obama sign or veto, you're correct.

It still would be a bad idea, unlike the House gambit Senate Dems would be blamed for failing to stop it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
WV-Gov
Tomblin 51-29 over Ireland and 56-23 over Maloney. 49-24 job approval. Snoozer.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Wow, quite a growth.
I guess the Dems on the redistricting commission are making a good gamble (they are planning to draw lines to hurt both McKinley AND Capito; they are also banking on the strength of the incumbent should Capito run for Governor).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Wow, Tomblin gets a plurality of Republican support (39/33)
Also, Thompson is weaker than Tennant and Perdue.  Didn't see that coming.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
IN-SoS: Emerging discontent with Charlie's Law?

There's some talk in the Republican-dominated Indiana House that blatantly using legislation to head off negative partisan consequences from legal proceedings may not be a good idea, apparently. We'll see if that actually goes anywhere, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Also, the Indiana Recount Commission will hold a meeting on the Charlie White case on May 4th. Judge Rosenberg of Marion County, who was responsible for originally sending the matter to the Recount Commission, requested earlier this week that the Commission get to work after a few weeks of inactivity following his original ruling. This whole affair is starting to get interesting again, after a few days of convoluted legal manuvering. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Virginia redistricting update: Senate Dems throw away their majority
Article here.

"Under the deal, the proposed new Democratic-leaning district in the Richmond area would be eliminated, according to Sen. John Watkins, R-Powhatan. Republicans would lose one of two senators in Virginia Beach and new districts would be created in Loudoun County and east of Lynchburg."


I don't see that.
It looks to me like they just threw away a 23rd Dem seat and probably lock in a 22-18 configuration (including Puckett).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Sacrificing the one solid gain is a terrible giveaway
especially since it was a much more logical, compact district than the current western Richmond gerrymander, so McDonnell couldn't possibly have complained about it.

And adding two new Republican-friendly seats is also awful.


[ Parent ]
I think
McDonell didn't want to sign a bill that would be the death knell for any Republican member of the Senate.  Gerrymandering has nothing to do with it, unless it protects his caucus from going any lower than 18.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Well, that's going to happen anyway
since the article says one of the Virginia Beach Senators is going to be screwed.

[ Parent ]
Well, maybe it was about numbers, not about specific Senators
i.e. he wants the VA GOP to be able to get the majority, even if that chance isn't large.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
On that last point
One Republican seat is removed, two seats of unknown political lean are opened elsewhere (although another seat will have to be removed).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Loudoun seat is almost assuredly going to be Republican-leaning
since they have to protect Mark Herring.

The one "east of Lynchburg" would only be Dem-friendly if it's past Appomattox and Campbell Counties.


[ Parent ]
That would depend on how much protection Herring needs
I'm pretty sure it'd be possible to draw two Dem-leaning Senate districts in Loudoun County.  If Herring is willing to take some Republican/swingy territory, then I imagine it'd be possible to make the other seat Dem-leaning.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't Herring have a level of personal popularity in Loudoun County that allows him to outperform other Democrats?  (Kind of like how Deeds outperforms other Democrats in Bath County)

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)


[ Parent ]
Hard to say
He's only been up for election twice, in 2006 and 2007, so he hasn't had to run in a bad cycle yet. And Loudoun is dangerously swingy; Obama won it by 8, then next year McDonnell won it by 22. It's hard to say what would be safe enough for Herring.

[ Parent ]
I seriously have no idea how you gleaned that from the article.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Democrats have 22 seats
in order to maintain control they can only lose one seat. They gave up their one shot at padding their majority. Now unless they manage to hold all but one of their vulnerable seats they're screwed.

And there's also the fact that Saslaw caved after, what, a week? of saying that he was going to stay strong. Doesn't engender much hope as to the Senate Democrats' spines when it comes to campaigning.


[ Parent ]
Maybe Saslaw say an opportunity to close this up
and not create chaos that was building up on the layout of the election season this year.

But what if in this plan, all of their incumbents are given more favorable districts?  That's what I gather Saslaw gets out of this.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
What will piss me off is that I'm sure they extracted no concessions on...
...the House map.

If they would have gotten GOP concessions on at least a status quo House map, as opposed to the gerrymander they forced, then I would've been OK with this.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's the other thing
As usual, Democrats give stuff up, Republicans don't.

[ Parent ]
If this is how the VADP plays
no wonder 2009 was so disastrous.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That was Deeds' doing.
It had nothing to do with the VADP.  They also won the Senate majority that year despite Deeds.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
No, the Senate flipped in 2007.


[ Parent ]
That's a pretty sweeping statement
A sizable chunk was due to the national environment, and I'm sure part of it was Deeds' fault, but you can't blame Deeds for singlehandedly causing the double-digit LG and AG losses as well as the Democratic collapse in the House of Delegates.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Alright, it was mostly the environment.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I live here, and yes Deeds was single-handedly responsible.....
It was 2 things actually, one was Deeds' own campaign, and number 2 was the disastrous state party field operation, which Deeds likely could've strong-armed the right people into functioning competently if he had been a competent candidate in the first place.

The 2009 Virginia disaster was all Deeds.  All the pre-election polls and also the exit poll had Obama's job approval in the state far higher than Deeds' vote share.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Deeds' campaign manager should retire.
Ned Lamont was ahead in primary polling for a while and he hired Deeds' campaign manager, and went on to lose handily to Malloy.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Perhaps Deeds could have fixed the state party field operation
but it's the state party's fault that it needed fixing in the first place.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Coattails
LG and AG tend to be an afterthought in Virginia. They usually end up within a few points of the gubernatorial result, because a good chunk of voters have no idea who's running, so they just vote straight ticket. Wagner and Shannon were good candidates but had no chance of winning downballot from an 18-point loss.

[ Parent ]
Because....
they have a Republican governor who can veto or sign this.  If they had a Dem governor (see NY), the GOP would have the disadvantage.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
This sucks
I'm starting to think that we'd be better off if they failed to pass another map and therefore forced the courts to draw both maps.  It seems like our chances of holding our majority in the Senate will be just as good (or bad, depending on how you look at it) under a court-drawn map as they will under a map that McDonnell's willing to sign.

On top of that, the GOP won't have as large of a majority in the House of Delegates as they do now if the courts drew the maps.

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)


[ Parent ]
Every Democrat commenting on this seems to think this way, but...
...is this conclusion reached with careful analysis?

I'm not a map guru, I don't know the state well outside NoVA, and even up here there are people (like you) who know the precincts better than me.

I'd like to read a more thorough analysis of what we lose compared to the first Senate map, and what our odds really are this November of hanging on.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Missouri
has sent a redistricing bill to the governor.  Dems are asking for a veto.  Map was not attached to the article.

Joe Cooper

Wow, they might not even have time to override
if he waits long enough.  And if Dems are asking for a veto, I hope that's a sign they won't vote to override.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Map
Here's an article with the map
http://www.stlbeacon.org/voice...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
And now for something completely different, and stupid......
Paul Ryan for President???:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Stupid excerpt #1 (emphasis mine):

News of a Ryan candidacy would send shockwaves through the political world and radically alter the 2012 landscape.  He has the potential to electrify a conservative movement that has thus far remained unexcited by the field of potential candidates and increasingly anxious that they will not have a formidable leader to challenge President Barack Obama.

An increasing number of conservative columnists -- including Charles Krauthammer, Bill Kristol and Ross Douthat -- have begun to call for Ryan to run, and speculation that such a scenario might actually be likely has picked up this week.

If he were to jump in, Ryan could immediately become the frontrunner in the race.  He is conservative enough to win the primary -- though he would face some tough questions from the right about his record.  While fiscal issues are his focus, his record on social issues is solidly conservative.

This is truly the stupidest campaign story I've ever read, written as if the author knows almost nothing about campaigns and elections at all, or perhaps is simply a Ryan sycophant.

But I vote for "he's just stupid," based on stupid excerpt #2:

He comes from a swing state that tilts Democratic and represents a district that voted for Obama in 2008, though it went for George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004.

'Nuff said.

Oh, and I found this article originally linked from Politico.

This, by the way, just reinforces that Republicans really are in complete disarray for 2012.  They're just flailing everywhere looking for fantasy candidates, and Ryan is just one more major fail-in-waiting to draw delusional wishfulness.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


If they're really in such disarray
the next step is for the R establishment to draft some fantasy R candidate, such as

Jeb Bush
David Petraeus
Colin Powell (yeah, I know he supported President Obama in '08, but I'm digging deep)


[ Parent ]
Oh, they drafted both Jeb and Petraeus a long time ago, but...
...both burned that draft card!

Colin Powell has been pretty mixed in commenting on Obama the few occasions he's been interviewed the past couple years.  Powell is waaaaaay too left to get drafted, Goopers never talk about him anymore.

I'm just astounded that the political media is this stupid as to publish crap like this Ryan story.  There's so much nonsense in there it just baffles.  And failing to get a basic fact right, like that Kerry, not Dubya, won Wisconsin in 2004, is acutely embarrassing.  No one on SSP would make a mistake like that, and we don't get paid for this like that author does.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Isn't he saying that Ryan's district (not WI as a whole) voted for Bush in '04?
That's what it says in the quote, at least.

I agree with you, though. Dumb article.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Yup, I screwed up reading that, as I admitted in another comment. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Yup, desperate parties keep trying
and I fully expect both Jeb and Petraeus to get more draft cards.

It's still 2011, and thus still the "silly season" for potential Presidential candidates.

As for Politico, do their reporters get paid? I thought they were like HuffPo.


[ Parent ]
Petraeus named Director of CIA...
Of course folks on the right say that move was made to keep Petraeus from challenging Obama for the Presidency.  

[ Parent ]
These stories they tell themselves are so bizarre......
If Petraeus wanted to run for office in 2012 he wouldn't take the CIA job.

This actually is a potential long-term dealbreaker for him, just as Huntsman's Ambassadorship.  Petraeus before was just a military man, but CIA Director is a civilian political appointment.  Petraeus now will be an Obama Administration official.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Or it could help him in 2016...
Where I believe the Obama derangement syndrome will end.  The GOP candidates with their eye on 2016 have not by in large jumped into bed with the Tea Party.  Jeb Bush has been obviously quiet and very off the radar(though appeared with Obama in Miami a month or so ago), Christie, Daniels have both tried to steer clear of that stuff as well.

Petraeus would make a killer VP on the GOP's 2016 ticket for anybody needing national security bonafides.  Only Dem that could counter him would be Hillary Clinton.

Bush/Petreaus vs Hickenlooper/Clinton  


[ Parent ]
I bet it doesn't end......
I don't think we were any less motivated by antipathy toward Bush in 2008 than in 2004.  No he wasn't on the ballot anymore, but he was a strongly motivating force on our side.  Obama certainly tied McCain to Bush as much as possible.

I think Petraeus would've been fine staying under Obama as a military leader, but taking a civilian appointment changes the game.  He's now going to be much less appealing as Presidential timber.  It might not be as bad as Huntsman's situation, but Petraeus still will have some explaining to do.

Ultimately I think Petraeus' biggest problem is simply that he's never run for anything, and I don't think anyone in 21st century America can become a competent Presidential candidate starting from zero political experience.  Petraeus' military resume isn't enough, his battlefield accomplishments do not come close to winning the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, or WWII.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
It's different.
I could be wrong, but I suspect that involvement with the Bush administration by a Democrat by itself--as opposed to ideology expressed through that appointment--is a deal breaker with most Democrats. Imagine for a moment after the 2006 elections, Bush decided to appoint Hillary Clinton Secretary of State. Would Democrats really be against her for that? Maybe some, but I doubt all. Compare that to Huntsman, who is still a definite conservative or at best a center-right guy who merely acted as an ambassador, which is probably even less ideological than most other positions. The mere fact that he accepted it seems to be a problem with a lot of conservatives.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
To Bad Petreaus
Seems to legitimately have no interest in running for political office.

[ Parent ]
Also
I'm not sure if he could make it through a GOP primary with his views on torture.

[ Parent ]
Not to mention
His wife is also working for Elizabeth Warren, one of Republicans' favorite people...

25, PA-10

[ Parent ]
Talkin about the district
Not the whole state

[ Parent ]
Oops, you guys are right, my reading comprehension needs work......
I totally missed it's his district, not the state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That article has more BS than I can believe


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
We live in different worlds.