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SSP Daily Digest: 4/26

by: DavidNYC

Tue Apr 26, 2011 at 7:57 AM EDT


Senate:

ND-Sen: North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk will announce his formal entry into the Senate race to replace Kent Conrad tomorrow. Kalk, a Republican, raised a really lame $32K in Q1.

NM-Sen, NM-03: Facing an already-crowded primary field and the prospect of giving up a safe House seat, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan said yesterday that he won't seek the Democratic nod to replace Jeff Bingaman in the Senate.

OH-Sen: I think we didn't spot this mid-April poll from GOP pollster Wenzel Strategies until now... but definitely take it with something stronger than mere salt. For one thing, they've regularly done polls for WorldNetDaily (I mean, seriously?), and for another, they released a seriously weird-ass poll last cycle that purported to show Rep. Norm Dicks losing to a perennial candidate. (Dicks won by 16.)

But even if you didn't know all that, you'd have to laugh at their absurd spin: They call Sherrod Brown's favorables "dangerous" and his re-elects "disastrous"... even though his head-to-head margin is 49-36 over Ken Blackwell, 50-36 against Mary Taylor, and 48-33 paired with Josh Mandel. In a Republican poll! Anyhow, if you want to chase this one all the way down the rabbit hole, Wenzel also had a component testing the anti-union legislation called SB5, which will very likely appear on the ballot this fall (people want it repealed by a 51-38 spread).

Gubernatorial:

WI-Gov: Another recall poll from another not-especially-prominent pollster. Republican polling firm Etheridge & Associates (based out of Tennessee) found 44% in favor of recalling Walker and 51% opposed. They also put Walker head-to-head with a real candidate (which is what would happen in a recall election) and found him tied with Russ Feingold at 48 apiece.

House:

ND-AL: This is a very good report from Kristen Daum, who writes the "Flickertales" blog for the Fargo-Moorhead Forum. She nails freshman GOP Rep. Rick Berg on two counts: First, last year Berg ran heavily on the theme that Earl Pomeroy was mostly relying on out-of-state money while he, Berg, was raking it in from North Dakotans. Well, with the Q1 reports in, Daum observes that about 80% of Berg's campaign cash is now coming from interests outside of ND, including quite a bit from DC. Better still, Berg's staff claimed he hasn't held any fundraisers or solicited contributions... but the Sunlight Foundation's "Party Time" website scrounged up a copy of an invite to high-dollar event held on Berg's behalf by Eric Cantor and a couple of PACs. Whoops!

NY-13: I'm not even going to summarize what's at the link, except to say it's a truly explosive story about GOP freshman Mike Grimm. Just click and read it.

WI-01: Businessman Rob Zerban is already running against Rep. Paul Ryan, but The Fix suggests another possible Democratic name: state Sen. Chris Larson.

Grab Bag:

Americans United: That Americans United for Change ad buy against four Republicans we mentioned yesterday apparent totals $35K. That's at least in the ballpark of real money, and I'm very glad to see groups like AUFC and House Majority PAC start doing these thousand-papercuts sort of campaigns early.

Polling & Demographics: Ben Smith has an interesting little exchange between a couple of pollsters with experience in working with the Latino community. One, André Pineda (who has polled for Obama, among others), says he thinks that pollsters who gather Hispanic samples by relying on surnames miss a lot of Hispanics who don't have such names, typically because their families have lived in the US longer. These voters, says Pineda, lean more to the right than newer immigrants. But Matt Barreto of the Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity and Race says that Pineda's estimates are "way off base." Barreto says only 5-10% of Hispanics do not have Hispanic surnames, whereas Pineda's memo suggests that the number is far higher.

Town Halls: Want to see if your member of Congress is having a town hall during this recess so that you can go and give them what for? MoveOn has a tool that lets you plug in your ZIP code and find town halls near you.

Voter Suppression: Unsurprisingly, the Florida legislature is moving forward with a big election law bill that's principally designed to suppress the Democratic vote, as always in the name of preventing VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111. Changes include shortening the early voting period, adding onerous restrictions on third-party groups which register voters, and preventing voters from changing their addresses at the poll (something which Florida has allowed for forty years). Republicans are also moving forward with bills that would eliminate payroll deductions for union dues, force unions to get each member's permission before spending money on elections, and make it harder for trial lawyers to bring medical malpractice cases. In short, as one Democratic lawmaker put it, it's the entire GOP wish list.

Redistricting Roundup:

Florida: This is sorta interesting. One Florida lawmaker on the legislature's redistricting committee is telling his fellow legislators not to talk to him about redistricting - at all. The new "Fair Districts" law says that districts can't be drawn to favor or disfavor incumbents, so mapmakers are concerned that if their colleagues start telling them about how they'd like to see the lines crafted, that could later be used as evidence in court.

Virginia: And so it goes: A week after saying he wouldn't change a thing about his party's map, Dem Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw now says of Gov. Bob McDonnell: "We are talking to him. We are trying to meet all of his concerns." I can't see how this is going to end well for Democrats, who now seem to face a choice between a crappy gerrymander in the Senate and a court-drawn map... and I guess would prefer the former, based on Saslaw's hints. Sigh.

Meanwhile, Republicans are apparently pretty pissed at McDonnell for vetoing their plans, supposedly with almost no warning, but there's a lot that doesn't add up here. For one, the article says that the legislature doesn't have enough votes to over-ride McDonnell's veto, but that's simply not true. If House Republicans really wanted their map badly enough, they could have prevailed on their counterparts in the Senate to vote for the package deal, ensuring it was safe from McDonnell's veto pen.

For the governor's part, he's also full of shit. His spokesman said that he would have preferred the House and Senate maps had been sent to the governor in separate bills, but jeez, this is classic "born yesterday" crap. There's no way the Senate would have given away its one piece of leverage like that. Still, it does sound like the Republican anger at McDonnell is quite real (and not just limited to redistricting), which means a serious derail is not impossible. So maybe there's still a way for Saslaw to snatch something other than defeat from the jaws of... defeat.

Utah: The state will apparently make redistricting software available to citizens on its website, but the linked article isn't very clear where that will happen. Any ideas?

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/26
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I
have just figured out something major. I think I have learned something about Trump. The other day I posted on the weekly open thread about how people were posting comments on Trump's FB about how they do not think Obama really graduated from an Ivy League school. Well get this, yesterday Trump starts floating that conspiracy from out of the blue. Well how I leaned about the hilarious posts on FB was because a family member told me that they had checked it out a while ago and there were messages on there about how Obama's book was ghost written and the next day Trump was floating that conspiracy! I don't think this is coincidence at all. Trump is reading his FB to see what average Republicans think and then acting on their nutty theories because no one else well. It is rather cleaver when you think about it. He is creating a base for himself. What do you guys think pure coincidence or is Trump really looking at his FB for his whack job conspiracies?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Or
maybe I'm just making a big deal out of nothing...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Facebook or not
I'm nto sure whether Facebook is being used or not, but he certainly is taking his cues from the loony-masses.  I re-called in a post about a week or 2 ago about flipping into CSPAN one night and he was in FL I think and was giving a speech/rally and every time someone in the crowd said something he immediately went of on a tangent on that...it was quite odd.

As many have posted, he probably won't run and its pretty clear he doesn't believe half of the stuff he says (he himself says he believes Obama was born here but wants proof which is an odd straddle).  

Whether its Facebook, asmall qadry of advisors or some message-testing below our radar, he's going to say just about anything that has a vocal support base, he likes the attention.


[ Parent ]
Ha.
Actually, it wouldn't surprise me. The guy obviously just says whatever he thinks people want to hear. Look at how he was pretty much a liberal 10 years ago when he ran for the Reform Party line, and now he's suddenly a billionaire teabagger whose flip-flops are only slightly less transparent than Romney's. The guy really will basically say and do anything, and the worst part is that I still think this whole Trump thing is just a big publicity stunt for the next season of "The Apprentice". It's sad how stupid much of the GOP base has become: "Well, I don't like that there Romney guy because he's a billionaire flipflopper librul from Massachusetts and also a SCARY EVIL MORMON WHO SIGNED A HEALTH CARE BILL so I'm going to go with a billionaire real estate developer from New York who grifted off of the public dime by declaring bankruptcy on 4 separate occasions, hasn't actually voted in a primary in 20 years, and...um....used to be a Democrat AND a member of the Reform Party. But he says Obama's not a citizen, so that's all okay." Durr.)  

[ Parent ]
Registered Democrat?
I have only been scant attention to his antics, so I definitely missed this. A registered Democrat? Damn.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Letterman says it's all a charade
[ Parent ]
Regarding VA,
If Saslaw can get the population deviations down a bit (and he can), he can claim to have made enough changes to suit McDonnell. This may work if the House really pushes for its map.


McDonnell is a lying sleazeball, but I'm not writing off Saslow yet......
I'm not going to rush to judgement on Saslow and Senate Dems, I'll wait and see what map they actually produce and what everyone thinks of it.  If it really does come down to cosmetics but still gives state Senate Dems a better map than the current one, then I'll be OK with it.

But I admit Saslow's reconciling remarks make me nervous.  I hope to God he's not being stupid and effectively surrendering when frankly we don't have to!

I'd be plenty happy with a court plan that does elections this year and next, with a new map drawn in between.  Apparently state Senate Dems are not so happy with shooting for that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
VA Court Map
I think the CW among state Dems is that a court drawn map in a death sentence for their Senate majority. They won't out and say that, but they'll needs a fairly solid gerrymander to ensure a Senate majority. I think McDonnell knows that and it why he's able to play hardball with Saslow, the Dems have to negotiate down from their dream map to one that gives them a chance, but a substatially reduced probability, of maintaining that majority.

I've heard the VA house GOP is even spreading rumors (I love a good whisper campaign) of all the nasty stuff they would LOVE to pass if they win a Senate majority in '11. Chief on that list (again this is just talk, but I believe it) is paycheck protection, for all of you who don't know what that is - it means Unions in VA will have to get written permission from each union member in order to deduct dues. I think they'll even try to make this "blind".

It would basically destroy any non-federal union in the state. Makes Wisconsin, Ohio & Indiana union fights look like pee wee football...and it's like the sword of Damocles hanging over their heads - knowing their Senate Majority is the only thing standing between the GOP & political oblivion for the Dems political base.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Were I a Republican
I would not want to face electing the entire legislature in 2012. Nor a court drawn Congressional map. That's not a guarantee, but it does seem to be a real threat.  

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
But I don't think McDonnell gives a crap about '12, he wants a state Senate majority after '11. If he can get a fair chance at it with a Senate approved map great. If not he'd be glad to take a bird in the hand in '11 and risk losing the two in the bush in '12.

This may be partly and issue derived from VA governors not being reelectable. He wants to get stuff passed NOW since he's out of a job after '13.

I don't agree with it, but I do understand it...he can do far mroe to secure his legacy holding a trifecta for one year in 2012 than he will get negotiating with a Dem senate for the next 2. Especially since he'll be a lame duck spectator for all of '13.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
McDonnell? Maybe not
The House Republicans? I think probably. The only way they could possibly lose their majority is if they are forced to run in 2012. They may prevail on McDonnell to deal, subject to some face-saving arrangement on the Senate map. Remember, that's what they wanted initially.


[ Parent ]
Again, why should McDonnell give a crap?
I'm sure he'd never admit this in public, or maybe even to himself, but a lasting state House (or Senate) majority doesn't make a lick of difference on his legacy or electoral future. He wants results NOW.

Now having to think about being Governor after '13 can make for some strange political calculations...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Does he really want to earn the ire
of House Republicans after he's already made his point about redistricting?

[ Parent ]
Why not?
They'll still pass everything he wants, since they still agree they want to keep their power in 2011/2012 and pursue their policies,w hich coincide more than their feelings on re-districting.

[ Parent ]
agree that McDonnell doesn't care
He'll get his legacy. He might even get tapped for the VP slot in '12. After that, what does he care? Politically speaking, he's got no future after '13 unless he runs for POTUS.

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
What point?
I don't think this is about scoring points or PR, this is about getting a GOP senate majority this november so he can pass the legislation he wants to frame his legacy and establish his bona fides for future office, this is especially true since his AG is becoming a household name while McDonnell hasn't been seen nationally since he gave the response to the SOTU in '10.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I may be a Virginia Dem
But I have almost no faith in Virginia Democrats in the State House. It wouldn't surprise me to see Saslaw give in. I hope I'm wrong.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Probably in addition...
it will have to be one that doesn't harm any Senate Republican (in other words, they will have to try to lock in 22-18 instead of going for 23-17).

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
In my view
There's no way McDonnell pissed off his entire party and basically kept secret the fact that he was going to veto until the last second just to see a few population deviations get improved. I mean, maybe he is that dumb, and he'd be happy with just a symbolic victory. But what a way to take a hit.

No, I think he's infected with Scott Walker Syndrome and thinks he can get the absolute maximum here. And the House Dems voting for their own suicide definitely did not help matters.


[ Parent ]
Do you agree with my comment?
Probably in addition...
it will have to be one that doesn't harm any Senate Republican (in other words, they will have to try to lock in 22-18 instead of going for 23-17).


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I guess that makes sense
McDonnell probably doesn't want to be seen as signing a fellow Republican's death warrant. And presumably there has to be Republican "improvement" in this map for McDonnell to claim victory. But he hasn't shown any compunction about pissing off his own party.

[ Parent ]
That's basically what this hinges on
IMO, the decision to veto would be much easier if there were no genuine concern of a 2012 vote. That's basically the only way the Republicans could lose the House.  

[ Parent ]
Wenzel Strategies
Oh, the spin. If that's the best one of the most unprofessional, skewed GOP pollsters out there can do, Sen. Sherrod Brown is going to romp. I just hope the Ohio Republican Party nominates Ken Blackwell again. Man, that would be funny.

Gov. McDonnell seems to really have the screws on Democrats in Virginia. I wonder if this will serve as a warning to Democrats in other split-control states that Republicans, not being gentlemen, cannot be trusted to uphold gentlemen's agreements.

As for the Rep. Grimm story, holy shit is that damaging if it's perceived as being credible at all. And if it's true - and it sounds like it is, what with the multiple witnesses and Grimm's non-denial denial - well, the fucker should just resign now.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


Grimm NYT contest
What will the NYT's hilariously passive/bowlderized headline for the story be?  I'm guessing "For Agent turned Politician, a Controversial Career".

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
My guess...
"New Questions Over Staten Island Congressman's Past".

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Or maybe...
"New Questions Over NYC Congressman's FBI Past". The FBI adds a mysterious zing to it.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Both good efforts
But I think you should go with the first one.  The NYT seem to go out of their way to de-zingify their headlines.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Fuck this was super-funny
Loved this comment, and the follow-ons, but I think this one takes the cake.

[ Parent ]
It hit the Staten Island Advance...
...and is the story on the cover.

http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

Was pleasantly surprised since they had minimized the damaging aspects of the article in previous iterations they posted on their website.

One thing to keep in mind is these stories are nothing new.  The Advance just chose not to look into them.  Kinda like how they turned a blind eye to Fosella for years.

Can't wait for the New Yorker piece to actually hit the internet so I can read it.  Might even buy the issue. :D

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Crap, it is the New Yorker
and not the NYT.  Well, the NYT will run its own eventual story.  As for the New Yorker headline, Ben's "The FBI agent and the night club" one might well be repurposed.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
This is Staten Island we're talking about
Sadly I don't think this has the ability to hurt him much. Though he wouldn't be in Congress if it weren't for McMahon's incompetence and overall douchiness, (turnout in NY-13 was literally like half of what it was in other districts, like NY-23).

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I dont think this will hurt Grimm at all. Its allegation about things that happened while he was an FBI agent over 12 years ago.

He was never found to have committed any wrong doings and the lawsuit the NYPD officer filed was dismissed.

And this is (as jwaalk points out) Staten Island we are talking about here where a little bravado by law enforcement is not just tolorated but considered the norm.

Sorry but there really is nothing to see here.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Florida GOP
Just curious, are they as right wing slanted as some other state leg's out there (Wisconsin)>  it just seems like if there was a state that would have some more moderate-type GOPers, it would be Florida.

I must say, the GOP's majorities in the Florida Legislature are something to behold.  Quite insane that FL is a swing state in most sense of the word but look at those majorities in the FL House/Senate...WOW!


Your mistake
Is believing that the words "moderate" and "Republican" go together now. To win a GOP primary you have to be nuts now, so if you win the general and become a legislator, you're pretty conservative.

24, male, Democrat, VA-06 (currently in Italy), went to school in VA-05

[ Parent ]
Not true
It just seems that way.  The whole world hasn't gone insane.  The insane have just gotten louder.

[ Parent ]
FL
The FL GOP has been moving to the right for years and while pundits have predicted several times that they have reached high water, they keep being proved wrong.  Mind you, I don't see how it can get any further than this with veto-proof majorities in both houses, Rick Scott and a very lopsided congregational delegation.
Part of the cause is the general suckyness of the FL Democratic party who can't seem to develop any sort of decent statewide bench.  If Bill Nelson were to somehow lose, the Democratic party would have no one left elected on a statewide level.  I'm not sure how much of the GOP agenda is going to pass, but if they stick together, they can get nearly all of it through and most people are not going to care much about voting procedural issues because that's just not a concern for the average person.  I'm thinking the FL-GOP knows this is the best shot they have so they are going to take full advantage.  

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Voter Suppression
I'm more and more wondering if the only way to escape all the republican laws mostly concerning voter registration was a national ID card.

I know that national id cards are unpopular with American liberals and there are probably a number of reasons to be afraid that to much data (especially biometric data) will be saved on these cards. On the other hand here in Germany having a national ID is the only thing you need, when you want to vote, which basically takes away most of the hurdles like registering to vote.


I'm not sure how likely this is
given the possible differences in legislative rules in each state, but I kind of want Democrats to say they will agree to this IF the Republicans will agree to make it easier to get an ID or even make it free.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
make it free

I'm sure that bill will pass with GOP support if there are more tax breaks for millionaires for some reason.


[ Parent ]
states rights, costs
since Republicans are pushing for a mandatory national id-card for some time, I suppose that conservatives won't argue that this would infringe state rights, but you never know of course.
As for the costs. It used to be pretty inexpensive here in Germany, something around 10-15 Euro, it's 29 Euros now.

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen, NV-02: Sandoval Digs in Heels... & So Does Sharrrrrrrrrrrron!!!
Brian Sandoval shows no intention of backing off his sweetheart deal to sneak Dean Heller into the Senate seat now being abandoned by John Ensign. And despite his pushback in trying to smear Democratic legislators for calling for an open application process, IMHO he's continuing to lose his luster with stunts like this.

And guess who's now taking full advantage of it? Once Heller is appointed, Queen Obtuse Angle of the Tea-nuts is determined to run for NV-02 no matter what... Even as a Nonpartisan (Independent)!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


silly stunt IMO
Since when does the legislative branch get advise and consent over temporary senatorial appointments?  Ensign's resignation was not a sweetheart deal, it was an effort to avoid a public ethics hearing.

Wrong Angle's campaign will certainly be good for some laughs but even the slightest possibility of her in Congress is a scary prospect.


[ Parent ]
Appointment
I'm sure the GOP out there is kicking themselves a bit for not forcing Ensign to give up the ghost sooner. I don't think Heller was crazy about running statewide, he did it because he had to, and if he felt like he could back out now he would...but he can't and he won't.

Had Ensign resigned when he announced his retirement I think Heller would have gladly stepped aside for Krolicki.

Now it's too late and they'll have to smash Sharron Angle out in public, hopefully once and for all. If that means a Dem hold that 2nd for 18 months so be it...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Just 18 months?
Remember, there's also an election next year. Even if The Legislature agrees on a redistricting plan, it's virtually guaranteed that NV-02 will have to lose some of its GOP lean. And if The Legislature can't agree on a map, then The Nevada Supreme Court won't care how the Washoe GOP wants NV-02 drawn.

Even if Sharron Angle implodes this year, they have a new problem on their hands... While Kate Marshall can count on heavy Obama campaign organizing throughout Northern Nevada.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Oh, but it was!
Ensign never said before he was planning to resign. And even now, CREW still plans to go after him. Sure, Ensign may have thought this was a way out, but Sandoval and Heller were using his fear to their advantage in pulling this stunt.

What's infuriating people here is that Sandoval is doing this to try to boost Heller's election prospects next year. If he had said before that he would simply appoint a placeholder to avoid any appearance of wrongdoing and gamesmanship, this wouldn't be an issue. But because he's trying to install Heller instead, folks on the right AND the left are getting angry.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Rightly so
I don;t think planning or reasoning matter any more on this issue...if heller is appointed it will smack of coordination.  It just depends on how much that matters to people come November 2012.

Its not like this site was all gung-ho on having Beau Biden appointed rather than winning the seat on his own.  i think this site was pretty introspective on the issue and while opinions differed, I think most thought being appointed would not have benefited Beau Biden.


[ Parent ]
And now, it is...
And Sandoval & Heller can't run away from that. If Sandoval didn't want to look like a prick, he could have done what Ruth Ann Minner did in 2009 in appointing  Kaufman. There have been suggestions for Sandoval to appoint Bob List (who's a disgusting jerk, but would never be able to run for election), Jon Porter, and even Bill Raggio (which would be a nice resume topper for him before fading to the sunset). But instead, Sandoval and Heller goad Ensign into resigning so that he can sneak Heller into that seat.

While stuff like this has typically been the norm for Nevada politics, that's changing. We're already seeing it in The Legislature with fewer back room deals and more open confrontation. The more I look at this hot mess, the more potential I see for real blowback... Especially if it results in a total clusterfuck of a special election in NV-02 with Sharron Angle's swan song turning into Nevada's version of "Black Swan"!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
The race was only slight Lean heller at best anyways, right?
So every little thing that hurts Heller is magnified in what will likely be a very close race.  

Kind of like my other psot abotu storms in Misourri, any positives McCaskill can get by serving her state in trying times is magnified because her race too will be very close.

Berkley better not blow it.


[ Parent ]
Not really...
Honestly, early on I even believed the Heller hype. But ever since Mark Mellman's poll was "leaked" AND Patty Murray said DSCC internals resemble Mellman's numbers, I've really seen NV-Sen as a tossup that Shelley can very much win. And no, Shelley isn't one to "blow it". Unlike Heller (who's never been a strong campaigner), she knows how to work the crowds, pile up the $$$$, and win over voters. She's not one to be "misunderestimated", and IMHO that may be Heller's cardinal sin here in thinking a quickie appointment by Sandoval will make his campaign easier next year.

It became a huge disaster for Dems in Illinois last year (even after Blago was impeached and Burris agreed to step aside), and it came close to being fatal for Bennet in Colorado. If Shelley knows how to play it right, she may be able to turn this Heller appointment mess on its head (and to her advantage).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I feel the same
That's why I said Lean-Heller at best (meant it from GOP point-of-view).

The only thing that worries me is just how front-and-center this race will be in 2012.  This might be over-stating it, but depending on how things play out this could be the most important Senate race there is and is the only one of the close ones without an elected incumbent running.  Berkley/Heller might very well determine who controls the Senate.


[ Parent ]
Virginia will be the most watched...
Kaine vs Allen.  Nevada got all the focus in 2010 because of Reid and I think the MSM will look elsewhere and have a heavyweight fight in Va.  

[ Parent ]
Only because that race will be won/lost in the DC area
Hoenstly the NV race is more compelling to me.  If Kaine loses then I'd figure Obama loses the state (I just don;t see the Obama-Allen ticket balancers some posit about).  

If Obama loses Virginia I must say NV-Sen becomes the least of my worries.


[ Parent ]
There will be some Obama-Allen voters.
There are always some ticket splitters. But in most cases, and especially this one, I see that number as fairly limited, particularly if Obama wins the state by a bigger margin than he did last time.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Ticket balancing
Seems more likely to happen when things are going well and people can "cafeteria-select" their politicians.  

"Oh I agree with this Pres candidate on healthcare, but i like this Sen candidate for taxes and defense and this Congress candidate for his views on Medicare/SS."  

However, ticket splitting when one person's agenda will be offset by another person's election makes the process less logical.  If the economy was percolating a la Clinton-mid/late 1990's I could see it as being more prevalent.  

But because things aren't going great (wars, recession, high gas, etc) it seems less likely that people would vote to balance the fed govt into a do-nothing stae of affairs, which is what is likely under Obama with a GOP Senate & House.  


[ Parent ]
And then there's the polarized electorate.
If Allen were not Allen but instead someone like, say, Rob Portman, I could see the potential for more ticket splitters. But given all of the factors you list, but the polarizing candidates (Obama and Allen, not Kaine I think), I'd say we would see fewer ticket splitters than usual.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I think the number of Obama-Allen voters depends on who the GOP nominee is
If it's MIttens, I don't see a lot of them materializing. If it's Donald Trump... yeah I could see it.

[ Parent ]
Yup you're looking at it from teh optimist side
I hadn't even thought to do that.  I was thinking more of people going with a storng desire to vote for Obama also voting for Allen.  Your prospect of peopel goping to the poll for Allen but not being able to stomach trump is equally applicable, but I wasn;t even thinking of it.

A Trump run would help Dems so much I'm wondering if we should start a draft Trump blog on DKos lol.


[ Parent ]
I suspect if the GOP nominee is competent, there'll be more GOP/Kaine voters than Obama/Allen
Allen has scant pull among moderates. That doesn't mean he can't prevail among conservatives alone, but it's hard to fathom many center-left, Obama-supporting Independents opting for the conservative Allen over the center-left Kaine. My hunch is Kaine probably outperforms Obama by at least 3, which is a pretty solid position to be in. Think something like...

D - 35
R - 34
I - 31

Obama - 91/6/46 = 48%
Romney - 9/94/54 = 52%

Kaine - 94/8/51 = 52%
Allen - 6/92/49 = 48%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
I just question
the idea that this situation is "infuriating" anyone but the most tuned-in activists - lefties who already don't like Sandoval and wingers who would rather it have gone down a different way.  Heller is one of the most prominent, popular Republicans in the state and he is the obvious choice to replace Ensign.  Could it work out well for him in 2012?  Sure.  But this is just not a big deal for most people and all persons involved are acting from positions of strength.  PPP just came out with numbers showing Sandoval as by far the most popular GOP governor from an Obama state and close to an even split on a dubiously useful appointment question.  The budget (for Sandoval) and destroying Medicare to give tax breaks to the rich and oil companies (for Heller) are going to be the issues those politicians' futures turn on, not an appointment that most voters will forget ever happened.

[ Parent ]
I think you're mis-reading people's opinions
I don't think anyone is saying this is a deciding factor.  but in a 50-50 race, something like this is magnified.

In Misourri, I doubt people care that much about McCaskill's private airplane usage, but because she's in a dogfight its much more of an issue because everything amtters that much more.

Also, being the most popular GOP Guv in an Obama state isn't that much of an achievement is it?  Kind of like being the most reasonable person at an insane asylum, not that impressive.


[ Parent ]
MN-08: Looks like Fanning is going to challenge Cravaack
http://www.fox21online.com/new...

My take: if Fanning can win the primary, he should be a favorite to win the seat. Obama and Klobuchar are up-ticket, there's a core of labor folks who are going to be doing GOTV like never before, and if you look at Fanning's picture, he's not a bad-looking guy. Not to mention a year-long tour in Iraq.

 


Challenges for Reps. Duffy AND Cravaack!
The gods of the Upper Midwestern swing districts represented by not-ready-for-primetime GOP freshmen must be smiling on us indeed this week!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Decent looking candidates too
I'd be shocked if they didn't raise huge sums of money too.  Fanning seems pretty young but I'll take it.  Does being linked to Franken hurt him?  I've heard others on this site mention that Franken isn't that popular and was curious if that's true and if being a Franken staffer is a potential drag?

[ Parent ]
Clarify
Decent looking I mean decent on paper, I don't care how attractive they are in photos lol.

[ Parent ]
Franken did pretty well
in MN-08, and his popularity has been fairly stable since then, partially because he has been such a workhorse and been a surprisingly eloquent progressive voice. Franken does, after all, have childhood roots in Duluth, and I think being associated with Franken is nowhere the drag in MN-08 as it is in say, Walz or Peterson's districts, or MN-06 for that matter.  

[ Parent ]
Franken has roots in Duluth? Really?
My understanding is that he liven in Albert Lea as a toddler and then moved to St. Louis Park.

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
I'm sorry, for some unfathomable reason I got Franken mixed up with Bob Dylan.  

[ Parent ]
This Post
Was one of the funniest things I've read in a while.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, I try
I'm afraid I was a little sleepy earlier when I responded to that comment. The only connection I can make is that Al Franken and Bob Dylan are both famous entertainers from the state of Minnesota and I got their birth places all jumbled up in my head.  

[ Parent ]
They're also both Jewish.


[ Parent ]
Bob Dylan converted to Christianity


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I thought he just adopted a WASP name
but I guess I'll take your word for it because I don't think I've explicitly heard anything to the contrary.

[ Parent ]
Duluth
They share a (cheap) media market too. I'd guess that a good chunk of Duffy's district gets Duluth tv. The Dems may be able to run some ads dumping on both of them.  

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Definitely true.
All of northwestern Wisconsin gets Duluth TV. Duluth, MN and Superior, WI are called the Twin Ports and are the largest cities in the areas of their states.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
yes.
And it is a misnomer. It really isn't "two ports" at all. It is 1 port, and 2 cities/states. Once you get in passed the bride, it is all harbor and port, on both sides.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
Seems like one step above
a some dude candidate.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree
Fanning is deputy state director for Franken, meaning that he probably has every single notable DFL Iron Ranger on his speed-dial.

I would put him at least two steps above some dude category. :)

Besides, this is a House seat. Some dudes win primaries and take out incumbents all the time in wave elections. I mean, who here could tell us who Chip Cravaack was this time last cycle?  


[ Parent ]
Read that he also worked on a Gub campaign in 2010
For someone named John Marty.  So he at least has experience running something statewide (albeit not a successful campaign) so he can reach out beyond the district

[ Parent ]
john marty
He is not just a "someone." He is one of the biggest movers and shakers in the iron range, right up there with sertich and prettner-solon. that is a very well respected name in the region.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
ans that is even considering rhe fact he is a city boy now
He has roots in the ranger, and is still seen as one of them. It's interesting how people there associate just as closely with people from there, as they do people that still live there. This is why its not a stretch for someone to move back there from the twin cities and win elected office. That 25 year old state representative in sertich's old district is a good example.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


[ Parent ]
I remember all the diaries he posted on SSP
for a split-second I mixed him up with Marty Seifert and was like, "this guy worked for Al Franken AND a right-wing Republican?"

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Not really
"Daniel Fanning - a democrat - is Deputy State Director for Minnesota Senator, Al Franken.  He's also a National Guard reservist who's served a year-long combat deployment in Iraq."

That's political gold right there. There's a certain other Minnesota Congressman who was also in the National Guard.


[ Parent ]
"Not a bad-looking guy"
By the standards of Congress, that's the understatement of the year. It's a matter of taste of course, but in 2013 Senators Gillibrand and Heinrich (hopefully) could have a challenger for best-looking Democrat in Congress. And there are several experiments that show low-information voters do, to a small degree, cast their ballots based on the appearance of the candidates.

[ Parent ]
LOL
best-looking Democrat in Congress

Its our most important caucus :-)


[ Parent ]
Cantwell isn't bad, either.
I believe she was voted the best looking on one of those stupid lists The Hill creates every so often.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
MO Redistricing
We should just have a running diary on this, call it "Days of our Lives" 'cus this is pure soap opera now.

Hotline is reporting (I ahven't heard this formally) that Ann Wagner will announce this morning for US Senate. IMO this means all talk of Akin or Lukenwarmen will be over. Without the hoped for open 2nd CD seat I think redistricing committee chairs Diehl & Rupp get shoved back in their holes and they map will be agreed to, putting Martin (I keep wanting to call him Andy Harris, different state - but same kind of A-hole) in the 8th, Rupp in the old 9th future 3rd and Diehl in the 2nd.

Now it's still anyone's guess if it's actually too late to avoid some kind of trainwreck with a veto, court drawn map, veto override vote in September..."yum, thanks for the shit sandwich mom!"

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


I wonder if Akin will really stop now
And I wonder if an insider Conservative, closely linked to Bush, is the best candidate for the GOP to put against Claire McCaskill.  

[ Parent ]
I never really believed Akin would run
Why risk a safe seat and a sweet HASC Subcommittee chairmanship (Seapower) for a roll of the dice vs McCaskill?

I've seen politicians do stranger things, but the only way you'd get Akin into that race is if you convinced him the Team needed him. With Wagner in that's just not true.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
His ego's been getting stoked for months
But I was never particularly afraid of him as a candidate. Akin has a record as one of the most conservative members of Congress, as a complete and utter party-line Republican for 12 years. While he may be a quiet backbencher and not a rabble-rouser, he's to the right of Jim Talent, which was simply too conservative, in my opinion, for Missouri in all but a 2010 like cycle.  

[ Parent ]
He may be a backbencher
on most issues, but he's a serious BMOC (Big Man on Campus) on defense issues, and I think this is where is real interest lies. Not that he isn't every bit the bible thumping social conservative, but being chairman of seapower has him "in the weeds" on Defense issues and budgets.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Crow, yummy!
Looks like the hotline report was off, and my theory that Akin won't run is too;

"10:57 a.m. CORRECTION: The original version of this post incorrectly identified the office Wagner is pursuing. Wagner announced Tuesday morning that she will explore a Congressional bid, hinting that 2nd District Rep. Todd Akin (R) will run for Senate."

This puts us back to square 1, I think Rupp & Diehl will want to fight even harder now perhaps even trying to draw the new 2nd so that Wagner and their counterpart from the other house aren't in the district.

What. A. Cluster.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Haley Barbour
Won't run for President. There goes the darkhouse candidate. I'd really predicted him to take the nomination, especially with Huckabee making sounds about not running and instead backing Barbour and Gingrich's lack of access to fundraising bases and general dislocation from politics. Now I'm wondering if Gingrich is slowly becoming the sole Southern GOP candidate, which could become a huge advantage.

Barbour had no chance of winning against Obama. For a number of reasons; corruption issues, he sounds like a hick when he talks, inflammatory past statements about the Civil Rights Era, etc, but for those reasons I was actually rooting for him to emerge from the shuffle.  


I think there is an anybody but Romney...
faction that is about to get behind Pawlenty but will wait until they see him in debates.  

[ Parent ]
I actually agree that this helps Gingrich more than anyone
If Huckabee passes, Gingrich emerges the sole southern candidate in the field and that's key in South Carolina where the likes of Daniels, Pawlenty and Romney might not play extraordinarily well. I can definitely fathom a scenario where three different candidates win IA/NH/SC, like Pawlenty, Romney, Gingrich. Then, on Super Tuesday Pawlenty wins the mid-west, Romney the northeast and Gingrich the south.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It would be awesome
to see a gridlock like that all the way into the conventions. And for some backroom deal to have to be made to break it, though I fear that favors Romney.  

[ Parent ]
Gingrich isn't very "Southern", though...
He doesn't talk the talk, nor does he walk the walk.  He dresses and talks like he's from Yale.  He's not going to have the same Southern populist appeal that Barbour did.

[ Parent ]
Didn't Pawlenty try out a southern twang...
in an interview not long ago that caught everybody off guard?  

[ Parent ]
If Pawlenty pops in Iowa like he must to survive, he'll play well in SC......
Pawlenty can connect better with evangelicals better than you think, if they give him a chance.  He identifies with them no less than Dubya did.  But his name isn't George Bush, so he doesn't get an automatic foot in the door.

Pawlenty's entire problem is finding a way to get taken seriously by rank-and-file Republican voters.  There's a reason he's always in low-to-mid single digits nationally and in the early states, it's because no one knows who he is.  That's not easy to overcome and requires as much luck as campaign skill.  He could rise to the top the way I fear he might, by process of elimination, or Republicans could shrug him off as a lightweight and go for someone who gets their blood flowing a lot more, i.e., someone unelectable.  Or they could resign emotionally and settle for Romney, even though Pawlenty would be more to their liking if only they took him seriously.

But in terms of Pawlenty's identity, he probably can connect better with evangelicals than Newt.  In fact, I'm quite confident he can...if they give him a chance.  I hope they DON'T!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Are you really that worried about Pawlenty?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I can't speak for DCC
And I'm probably more worried about Romney, but Pawlenty is a serious threat. He comes across as a lot more reasonable than most of the rest of the field.

[ Parent ]
I guess.
I just envision a scenario where he moves so far to the right to win the primary, he can't ever come back. No, he doesn't seem unhinged like Angle or entirely goofy like O'Donnell, but still. And since he's so undefined, the Obama campaign can craft his image in a particularly unfavorable light if it wants to.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm worried about him IF he wins the nomination, BUT...
...he's got a tough row to hoe to win the nomination, and even if he does, we have no idea if he'll run a competent general election campaign.

Running a competent November campaign is hard.  Just ask John McCain.  McCain ran a perfect primary campaign, really threading a needle to win the nomination, and normally one might think a great primary campaign portends a competent general campaign.  But McCain was as bad vs. Obama as he was good vs. his fellow Republicans.

So there are reasons not to worry, and on top of all that even if Pawlenty is the nominee and is competent, Obama still has an edge.  But it's a small one in that case, unless things really turn upward for the President.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
That makes sense.
He kind of strikes me as another one of those high floor, low ceiling candidates, who might get lucky if things get a lot worse but will probably lose.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Misourri storms
Maybe stretching towards off-topic, but how has the govt response to the storms in MO been?  I know a few weeks ago the storms in NC were supposedly hurting Bev Perdue since she was out-of-state (not sure if it was true, some mentioned it seemd to be a press smear job).

I saw Nixon on TV, is McCaskill anywhere to be seen.  Given her potential (guaranteed) close race I'd hope she could get some positive press by acting quickly and being out there with people trying to help.


When I drew what court maps would like in Virginia, I got a 21 Rep, 19 Dem Senate
Granted, that would flip the Democratic majority, but there are a couple of low Republican PVI districts that they could win. On the House of Delegates side, I got a 51 Dem, 49 Rep when I attempted a potential court drawn map. Keeping the numbers proportional for the state could work to the Dems advantage, depending on what swings occur.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

Could you post them?
I'm curious to see what they look like.  Do the 19 Dem Senate districts include those of Phil Puckett, Roscoe Reynolds, and Edd Houck (in other words, Republican-leaning districts that these guys could hold)?

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)

[ Parent ]
Maps
With the exception of Puckett, the others have moderately GOP leaning districts that they may be able to hold.

Senate:

Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

House of Delegates:

Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

Photobucket

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.


[ Parent ]
From the looks of it...
I count about 23-24 Senate seats that the Democrats could possibly win under these lines.  I'm assuming that Blacksburg is in the blue district and not the orange one (the one with Roanoke).  Is that correct?  If so, then that district could be winnable, but it would be tough.

Sen. Deeds (D) will be out of a job unless he can pull off an upset win in his new (much more conservative) Senate district.  He might have a better shot at winning his new House seat.

It's my understanding that the two far southwest districts have always run horizontally rather than under this configuration (because of economic and cultural differences).  Perhaps someone more informed than I am could shed some more light on this.

Sen. Houck (D) will have to face off against Sen. Stuart (R) unless he actually lives in the Fredericksburg/Stafford County district.  Either way, he'll be running in mostly new territory, but would probably be favored to win.  I'm pretty sure that Houck currently represents more this district's population than Stuart does.

25, Male, Eurasian American, Democrat, VA-11 (current residence), VA-09 (college)


[ Parent ]
The problem is no matter what your map is, for the Virginia Assembly...
...overcoming a 61-39 deficit requires beating a lot of incumbents.  Even if there are a dozen or more we should take in a vacuum, a lot of those GOP incumbents will win absent a wave.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That is true
But at least in the scenario of a wave, Democrats would be on even ground and be able to have a chance with a fair map.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown Gets Official Challenger
Alan Khazei is officially in. Someone here said that if Scott Brown's opponent were someone like Alan Khazei or Sonia Chang-Diaz, he could be in for a heap of trouble. Is that the case?

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


I really don't see an
opening for Setti Warren anymore. Looks like he'll have to wait for an open house seat, or give the 2014 Gubernatorial race a shot.  

[ Parent ]
I vote he primaries Rep. Frank
I would break my rule about not donating to political campaigns that aren't national, Oregonian, or in my current state of residence to donate to him, and I'd consider temporarily relocating to Massachusetts for the campaign, too.

Rep. Frank notches in just behind Reps. Rangel, Hastings, Wu, Lipinski, and Lynch for Democrats I'd like to see booted out of Congress (and replaced by other Democrats).

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
What's so bad about Frank again?


[ Parent ]
I've mentioned the reasons why I dislike him a number of times here...
But I think it boils down to a few things:

1. His refusal to consider making Fannie and Freddie more transparent or subject to regulation before the financial crisis.

2. His subsequent lack of contrition over blocking reform of Fannie and Freddie after the financial crisis.

3. His self-serving, self-aggrandizing bullshit, perhaps best exemplified by his slagging off Mayor Warren just the other day in an interview.

And yeah, sure, it was funny what he said about Rep. Dreier and the "moderate pride parade", but outing a colleague isn't exactly professional behavior. I wouldn't put that in the top tier of reasons I want to see Rep. Frank replaced, but while it gave me a laugh, it didn't leave me with a very good taste in my mouth.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Without getting too much into policy, Frank is part of the camp
that believes closeted gay politicians who vote against gay rights should be exposed as hypocrites. That's why he "outed" Dreier.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
As he should be.


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Oh, yeah, I'm sure Scott Brown is just shaking in his boots over this guy
I don't think Khazei's strong at all. He's respected among the Democratic rank-and-file, but he'd probably still bleed 20 to 25 percent of Dems, anyway. No pull among Independents, either.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Khazei is a no one
He'll raise a decent amount of money, and Democrats might decide he can be the nominee if Capuano or someone else in the House delegation decides the race is a lost cause, but I doubt he breaks 46%

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I never said he was a shoe-in.
No pull among Independents, either.

Your ability to see that far into the future is impressive, I gotta say.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
DC Council Special Election
Surprised this hasn't been mentioned, but here in DC we are holding a special election for Vincent Gray's old at-large council seat. There are 9 candidates, 8 Dems and 1 Republican. This might be a real chance for the GOP to regain their seat on the council, as the Dem vote will likely be split and there has been a lot of controversy surrounding Gray's first few months in office.

Even the WaPo has endorsed the Republican, Patrick Mara:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Should be an interesting election.  


Well...
This is Swing State Project and DC isn't really a state...LOL.

Curious, which upstate NY district are you from (if you don't mind disclosing)?


[ Parent ]
My impression has been
the 23rd.  

[ Parent ]
Why is no one from NY-20 on here regularly
I like hearing about my hometown pols without my father's wacko right-wing views :-)

[ Parent ]
NY-24
Still go back there a lot but in DC for work/school.

[ Parent ]
Patrick Mara?
He beat Carol Schwartz in the primary in 2008 and proceeded to lose the Republicans' only seat on the council. He got 10%. It will take an exceedingly split field for him to win.

Also, it appears to be 6 Dems, an Independent, and a Statehood Green, not 8 Dems.


[ Parent ]
True
The WaPo described it as a "field of Democrats", I think we have all learend by now that most "Independents" on the ballot in DC are Democrats, or farther left (like the Statehood Greens).

100% correct about 2008 but this is a hugely different situation, I think we can agree. There is expected to be VERY light turnout and it's a much different climate than in '08, even in DC. Gray is really unpopular among all demographics, so his handpicked successor may have a lot of trouble. That leaves the field wide open to local and special interest candidates, add in a serious Hispanic candidate (he would be the 1st on the Council), and you can see a Republican sneaking through if they turnout.

I'm not saying Mara will win, likely he won't, but he's got a shot. Should be fun.  


[ Parent ]
Mara
Carol Schwartz ran as a write-in last time and got around 12%, so those are voters that persumably could be persuaded to vote for Mara.

Mara's also benefiting because he's the last viable non-machine candidate. Biddle is tainted because he's supported by Kwame Brown and Gray, while Orange has been around forever and has a lot of the establishment behind him as well.

Orange has been resorting to some racial tinged tactics (i.e. handing out flyers in Ward 8 attacking Mara and talking about how Orange "walks like us and talks like us," and one supporter keeps attacking Biddle because he won't mention his white wife when he's in SE DC). Mara is going to get more liberal support then a Republican usually would simple because he has the best shot at defeating Biddle and Orange.  

24, Gay Dude, Democrat, DC-AL


[ Parent ]
correction
write in got 11% in 2008, most of those for Carol Schwartz.

24, Gay Dude, Democrat, DC-AL

[ Parent ]
i think
Brian Weaver will get the progressive support. After that, Lopez and Mara will split the "myopic little twit" pro-fenty vote. So no, mara will not get that much liberal support.

[ Parent ]
Orange Wins
Looks like he took 28% to Mara's 26% with some absentees, and provisionals, etc. still out.  

[ Parent ]
PPP's WV Poll
I'm guessing we'll get a post on the results of the latest PPP poll on WV's gubenatorial primaries. But in case it slips through the cracks in such a post I thought I'd point out that Donald Trump has tied Mike Huckabee among WV's Republicans (24% each).

They've released the results
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Democratic primary:

Earl Ray Tomblin - 32
John Perdue - 17
Natalie Tennant - 16
Rick Thompson - 15
Jeff Kessler - 5
Arne Moltis - 1

Looks like I was right about the anti-Tomblin vote being split.

Republican primary:

Betty Ireland - 31
Bill Maloney - 17
Clark Barnes - 8
Mitch Carmichael - 8
Mark Sorsaia - 4
Ralph William Clark - 2
Larry Faircloth - 2
Cliff Ellis - 1

With 28% still undecided here, there's a chance for an upset.


[ Parent ]
The sample size for WV GOPers was in the low 200s
So the margins of error are going to be pretty large, so you can take that for what it's worth.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
Party Time
What a perfectly named site.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Hector Balderas
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Does this guy have a shot against Heinrich? He seems like a really good guy.

22, male, VA-10


That's a good ad
looks like he's going to be running as the outsider.  

20, Democrat, KY-01

[ Parent ]
I'm still undecided on Balderas v. Heinrich
They both have a lot of great unique qualities about themselves (and, quite frankly, I wish one of them would come up to Massachusetts, lol). But if Balderas does end up winning, he should definitely be on the short-list for vice-president in 2016

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Mike Delph throws birther party, nobody shows up

Yes, well, that's a somewhat exaggerated headline. It wasn't actually a party, it was an attempt to pass his "Presidential candidates must present the state with their birth certificate to get on the ballot" bill through committee. Unfortunately for him, the committee hearing was denied a quorum by a bunch of senators (Republicans and Democrats) that failed to appear. Strangely enough, Delph also neglected to arrive to vote on his own bill. At least Donald Trump thinks it's a good idea.

Things like this or the immigration bill he's working through the legislature now seem to outline what a Delph for US Senate campaign would look like, if he does still join that race. He wouldn't be the conservative alternative to Dick Lugar, he'd be the crazy-ass alternative to Richard Mourdock.



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

From a sample Obama won by 5% rather than the actual 12%
This looks like a pure toss up.  I wonder if PPP has had any luck fixing their problems polling the state, but it doesn't quite look like it.  Does anyone know what % hispanics constituted in the 2008 electorate in Nevada?

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
As always there are crosstabs here
That slice either way. The sample is more Democratic than the 2008 exit poll for example. At risk of flogging a dead horse we simply have to trust their toplines unless there is something really off with the crosstabs.

[ Parent ]
age again
Given the sample's old skew they may have gotten a lot of rural "pinto" Dems who would favor Heller.

41, Ind, CA-05

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
But given their record I'm more than happy to trust their toplines above anything else. As I keep saying they produce accurate head-to-heads that reflect actual election results even when the crosstabs from the same data look nothing like exit polling.  

[ Parent ]
yeah...
only 6% of voters age 18 - 29 is pretty ridiculous.  Even 2010 had a 12% turnout of those aged 18 - 29.  And these young voters appear to be particularly Democratic friendly, likely because of how many minorities are in that group.

I also have to think the hispanic share of voters is going to rise by a couple of points in 2012.  Exit polls had a mid-term election drawing out 16% of hispanic voters compared to 15% in 2008.  I don't think Angle alone accounted for that rise in hispanic turnout.


[ Parent ]
I would normally agree with you
but Nevada is a state where PPP has consistently underestimated Democratic performance, especially among Hispanics, which makes the toplines less reliable.

2008 President
PPP: Obama 51-47 (61-36 with Hispanics)
Actual: Obama 55-43 (76-22 with Hispanics)

2010 Senate
PPP: Angle 47-46 (sample voted for Obama 50-46; Reid winning Hispanics 48-35)
Actual: Reid 50-45 (Reid winning Hispanics 69-30)

2010 Governor
PPP: Sandoval 55-44 (Reid winning Hispanics 53-47)
Actual: Sandoval 53-42 (Reid winning Hispanics 65-33)

2010 AG
PPP: Masto (D) 51-39
Actual: Masto 53-36

So in the four statewide races they've polled since 2008, they nailed one and underestimated the Dem by 2-4 points in the others. And in the three races with exit poll information, PPP lowballed the Dem among Latinos by between 12 and 19 points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Speaking of which
Shelley only leads with Hispanics 54-45 in this. So if you increase that to closer to 68-31, I think it's about a tie.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Everybody
Has consistently underestimated Democratic performance in Nevada since at least 2004. Still a tossup though even allowing for the possibility that PPP haven't been able to correct for this.

[ Parent ]
Right, I wasn't trying to rip on PPP specifically
and I agree that it's a tossup since even if you give Shelley a more realistic 2-1 Hispanic lead, they're still about tied.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
My thinking is that if PPP is right, what we're really seeing is...
...an illustration of a national trend away from Republicans again.

Now, that doesn't necessarily portend a wave.

But it's pretty dramatic for Berkley to make up this much ground this quickly, when frankly nothing candidate-specific has happened to cause it.  The only events this year to move voter behavior in federal races have been legislative.  It's clear the general public doesn't like the GOP House anymore than it liked the Democratic House the previous Congress, and really the last election was about checking Democrats rather than trusting Republicans.  Now Heller is paying a price for that.

I feel better about this one than ever before.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't trust the "actuals" either
30% of Hispanics voted for Sharon Angle?  That to me leaves room for some illogical interpretation.

I'm also curious if the Reid/Reid ticket was so homogenous with hispanics.  I mean Sandoval said some dumb stuff but still as a Hispanic and better candidate than Angle i'd have expected to outperform the weaker Reid with Hispanics by more than he did.


[ Parent ]
I buy 30%
It's pretty damn hard to get more that 50-60% of any sample to agree on anything, AA voters have traditionally voted about 85-90 Dem, and that is a much more homegenous group than the loosly defined (and self identified) "hispanic" demograhic.

If you are a 5th generation Mexican decendent you might never have set foot out of the US and not speak any more spanish than you picked up from Terminator 2, how much exactly do you have in common with a 1st generation immigrant from Guatemala who's parents came to work as farm labor and you went to public school without speaking any english and now works as cleaning lady at Paris Paris?

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I understand the lack of homogeneity
But to me those who'd actually respond to either exit or phone polling would be more homogenous than the overall population.  

I'm also curious at what point immigrants stop calling themselves Hispanic and start becoming white (is it when they are more than 50% white due to inter-racial marriage, is it after a few generations are stateside, is it never?)


[ Parent ]
It's pretty much
Being Hispanic isn't a race, it's a national origin. If someone moves from Argentina or Uruguay to the US, they're a Hispanic American, even though those countries are much whiter than the US ever was. They're in the same "category" as a Black person from the Dominican Republic or a Native person from Bolivia.

So it pretty much comes down to culture and self-identity in the long run.

22, male, conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)


[ Parent ]
What he says is true
I'm a 3rd generation Mexican-America, and I really identify myself as such, my father is Canadian, and my mother somewhat light skinned, they both never taught me Spanish while I was growing up, and I look really white.  I have cousins/ Aunts and Uncles who are also 2nd/3rd generation Mexican-Americans, and they are evangelical conservative republicans, and likely have a very anti-immigrant disposition.  It's very possible that as people who have immigrated here begin to identify with American culture, whatever racial background they have becomes less of a determining factor than region.

Just a side note, they may be this conservative due to the environment they live in rather than their heritage, as they live in Orange County.  It's quite interesting though, my grandmother is an ultra liberal who has lived most of her life in either San Diego, Texas, or Orange County.  Different factors likely affect different people in different ways.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
I don't really Identify myself as such*


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
No, he really didn't...
As soon as Brian Sandoval started embracing the Teabagger crazy on immigration and budget cuts, his numbers sank among Latinos. That's why he only got about 4-5% more Latino voters than Sharron Angle. He got far more crossover support among suburban Reno voters (which was really his base) than in the traditional North Las Vegas barrios.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I think polling might not answer my question
To me, and I understand I'm in the minority, Sandoval was infitely ebtter than Angle and R. Reid was demonstrably worse than H Reid.

H Reid won Clark by ~60K and Washoe by about ~7K, Sandoval won Clark by ~7K and Washoe by ~29K.  So the flip in Clark wasn't Hispanics...I guess I find it odd, but that's just me.


[ Parent ]
Well
It's not as if there was no advantage for Sandoval vis-a-vis Angle. Besides, it's not like white voters in Clark don't affect the result somewhat. The county is 48% non-Hispanic white, and it's probably safe to assume that whites turned out in greater numbers relative to Hispanics (since Nevada is 54% white but the exit poll said the electorate was 71% white). So it's not at all unreasonable to think white voters handed Clark to Sandy.

That being said, exit polls aren't necessarily reliable,  but the fact that they so consistently show Dems cruising among Hispanics (hell, even Kerry got 60%) means that it's safe to give the Dem another 1-2 points if the poll only shows them with a single-digit advantage.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
No, we don't...
And I especially don't, since I live here in Nevada and I know when the private polls are leaked. Now PPP wasn't as gawd awful these last two cycles as CNN, Razzy, and other public pollsters, but the fact remains that these public pollsters simply don't know how to poll Nevada. Just because a certain group of voters, such as Latinos and 20-something's, isn't considered a pool of "likely voters" does not mean that ALL OF THEM should be excluded. That's why CNN, Razzy, and PPP all showed Angle ahead last year and McCain running close to Obama in 2008, only for Obama and Reid to blow them out of the water in the final election results.

Still, I think the movement is significant. If PPP now shows Heller up 4, then it confirms Mark Mellman's numbers and the race really is either tied or has Shelley slightly ahead.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
I can only imagine this whole appointment
thing is going to hurt Heller and Sandy (can I call him that) and puts Shelly in a much better position.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
The 2008 exit poll claims Hispanics were 15%
and Obama won them about 3-1.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That's not exactly true
The poll asked respondants who they voted for, it's not the same thing as who they voted for, you imply a sampling error when what you traditionally see when asking that kind of "memory" question is how much voter preference for past elections have changes.

Personally I think this kind of "voters remorse" question is bogus, for one thing you assume everyone polled voted, you assume they voted in the state being polled, also are we to assume voters memory is that faulty? 10% don't remember who they voted for? I"d love to get the crosstab on age for that early onset senility.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
It's relevant
because the PPP polls that underestimated Harry Reid and Catherine Cortez Masto also showed a sample that went for Obama 50-46. If their sample had been 54-42 Obama or even 52-44 Obama instead, maybe their toplines would have been more accurate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
internals
The sample they got was very old, with 6% 18-29, 25% 30-45, 48% 46-65, 21% 65+. In contrast the 2008 exit poll was 17% 18-29, 33% 30-45, 36% 46-65, 15% 65+. Obama beat McCain nearly 2-1 among people under 45, and they split the over-45s about 50-50. I would probably shift a point or two from Heller to Berkley to correct for this.

This doesn't surprise me for Nevada because as a fast-growing state its younger voters in particular are especially likely to have moved in the last decade or so, when it's been the norm for people who move not to get a landline.

41, Ind, CA-05


[ Parent ]
Is there any evidence
that they have tried to fix their Nevada polling, or can we basically regard this as a tie?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Genuine tie I think
Lots of uncommitted Democrats. Though she will have to improve with independents.

[ Parent ]
I basically don't trust
any polling out of Nevada. It has been uniquely bad for a while.  

[ Parent ]
Indeed
But they will get it right eventually. Could be now. We just don't know.

[ Parent ]
Well, as I said upthread, I think the root cause of their problems is the Latino vote
and unless Nevada Hispanics are zooming to the right for some reason, 54-45 is a lot smaller than what Shelley's advantage will end up being.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yeah, that's borderline not credible


[ Parent ]
My hope is that the new Census #s
will improve the situation. But given that everyone should have been working from ACS estimates anyway, I'm not confident.  

[ Parent ]
flux
The census data (ACS) is only 90% accurate according to the Census' own literature and,  if the level of flux in southern Nevada is anything like what we are seeing in the central valley due to the housing oversupply even the 1 year ACS data is going to be minimally helpful.

[ Parent ]
I do know... That they're not.
Sorry, but that PPP sample looked way too screwy for me to take too seriously. There's no way in hell Dean Heller is outperforming Brian Sandoval among Latinos when he's even further to the right on immigration and civil rights.

I wonder why PPP won't release geographic numbers. Considering the strange numbers on party ID and age, I suspect they oversampled Washoe and the rurals while undersampling Clark. There's no other way to explain these fucked up internals.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
Thank you!
Any poll that shows the Dem getting less than 60% of the Hispanic vote is lowballing the Dem performance by at least 1-2 points.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
They aren't asking
Unless they have question they aren't publishing, which is a big industry no-no, they aren't asking specific geography questions.

It's also worth noting they don't adust their sample for party ID. This is becoming much more the standard. If you are looking for a sleep aid I can loan you my 135 page thesis comparing various theories on how best to create a reliable polling sample. It's titled: Reliable Poll Samples for the 21st Century, the rest is 2 pages of summary and then 230,394,043 ZZZZZs where my nose his the keyboard....

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Ahh, so you actually know something about this
Few people do.

I think it is entirely correct not to weight by party. But I do think there's a good case for weighting by region. If you check PPP's most recent NH poll, you'll notice that they got something like 60% of their sample from the 2nd Congressional district. That seems implausible to me.  


[ Parent ]
And here in Nevada...
CNN always had bizarre internals showing weird Clark results. Again, I suspect it had to do with them excluding everyone under 30 and horribly undersampling Latinos.

My rule now is that there are only 3 pollsters I give serious credibility in regards to Nevada: Mark Mellman, POS, and Suffolk. They're the only ones who got NV-Sen right last year, and they're the only ones that have figured out how to properly cover all Nevada's demographic bases.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
that sounds fascinating
I would read the 2 page summary at least

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The 133 pages of ZZZZZZs is more interesting


"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
I know PPP used to give crosstabs by area code
I'm not sure why they didn't do that, especially since Nevada's two area codes correspond to Clark and the rest of the state.

Regardless, whether it's their fault or not, this sample definitely seems off.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Apples to Oranges
To ask someone their voter preference from a past election is to ask for an opinion on that outcome, not a reliable determinate for who (or if!) they voted for.

There is some disagreement on questions regarding past action, many now believe that to be reliable all questions must be based on the current and future intentions of the respondent. Where this comes into play is how you determine who is a Likely Voter, the "old" standard was Did you vote in the last election, and the election before that and do you intend to vote in the upcoming election.

Many (perhaps most?) now ask "how likely are you to vote in the upcoming election?" and then score the response - ie Certain and almost certain are LV, those responses will normally make up somewhere North of 60% of all respondents, whereas when asked if you voted the last time and the time before that the return is north of 90%, people don't like to tell random strangers on the phone (even automated ones) that they didn't vote. Funny little bit of human behavior...

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
But that's not what they're asking
the question is, word-for-word, "Who did you vote for President in 2008?" It doesn't get more straightforward than that.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Straighforward, yes. Accurate, NO!
Don't try to make this question more than it is.

Here is the most important thing, if you ask someone where they live, how much they make, what their ethnicity is, your accuracy rate will be somewhere around 85-90%, some of this just people's lives being confusing, I make 50k, but my wife makes 25k, so should I answer 30-50k or 50-100k? Am I hispanic if my name is Sanchez but except for my paternal grandfather everyone else is Korean? No question is perfect, but if you ask someone who they voted for in any past election your accuracy rate drops down dramatically (I'd guestimate it as 60-70%), because people will change their answer bases on either who they wish won, or who they wish they voted for (or who they think you want them to say, one of the toughest issues we used to have, before blind callers became standard in the 90s and then auto-calls today).

You can beat PPPolling up all you want for their sample issues, I find the analysis very intersting, but over past voter behavior? No way.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
Exactly
NPJO has this issue on the money.  

[ Parent ]
I don't normally place stock in those numbers
but there's a pattern here. PPP's 2010 poll also had a sample that went for Obama by 4 points, and that poll underestimated Democratic performance significantly. I don't see why you are rushing to give PPP the benefit of the doubt when they have underestimated Democrats several cycles in a row.

Btw, the issue of Hispanic self-identification is irrelevant, because those exit polls which cast doubt on the credibility of the PPP poll are also based of self-identification. That's not an excuse.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The point is that you should never
place stock in previous vote numbers. I don't even think PPP should bother to ask.

I'd much rather have a breakdown by area code.  


[ Parent ]
You're right
because the racial crosstabs are enough to make the poll look screwy anyway, even without the presidential numbers.

and yeah, I know, the racial crosstabs have large MoEs, I get that. But it just fits in with a pattern, and until there's evidence that PPP is changing its Nevada polling, I'm going to consider this a tie race.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
But here's the problem.
If a subset of voters is considered to be 20% or 40% likely to vote, then that doesn't automatically mean 100% won't vote. However, that's the big mistake PPP, CNN, and Razzy made last year. Now I understand why CNN's registered voter pool always showed a hefty Reid lead last year, but the likely voter pool always showed a slight Angle lead. They were tossing out far too many young voters and minorities who actually turned out to vote.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
RVs vs LVs
You are exactly right, and this is why most of the best polling firms don't go to LVs until a short window, say 3-4 months, before the election. Otherwise you won't get a reliable response.

For instance if I asked you if you'll vote in 2012 you would say certainly? This goes for most partisans and insiders, but what if I asked you "How?" will you vote absentee, absentee in person, oversees ballot or in person? That is a pretty good comparison to how a normal, "Why are you bothering me at home, i'm trying to make dinner!" would be thinking, "uhm yea sure I'll vote, unless anotehr jackass like you is bothering me all the god damn time and then when I go to vote I'll probably punch a poll working in the nose and miss it" Pollster's response? not a likely voter.

"Earnestness is stupidity sent to college"
P. J. O'Rourke


[ Parent ]
That's not how PPP's voter screen works though
what throws their screen off is voters who move around and first-time voters.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yes
And early likely voter models uniquely hurt Democrats because their voters often need to be seduced into turning up.

[ Parent ]
Occam's razor
Does PPP run Nevada polls with a Spanish-language option? This was speculated to be one of the problems with polls showing a commanding Angle lead. Isn't this the most likely reason for missing Latino voters?  

[ Parent ]
not too bad
looks like Shelley only need to soldify her base to pull slightly ahead...as long as she doesn't tank with Indys, and if the GOP Presidential nominee falters, she could win.  

[ Parent ]
David, I love how you're never afraid to call voter suppression bills what they are
I know too many democrats who still insist on calling bills designed to take away their right to vote "Voter ID."

ND-Sen
Rick Berg is probably going to jump in soon: http://www.rollcall.com/news/R...

Any word on Pomeroy wanting to run again? We could take Berg's seat

22, male, VA-10


Yes, I think we can.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Didn't he become a lobbyist?


[ Parent ]
PPP's out with another buyer's remorse poll
This time, the lucky guy is Terry Branstad, who loses to Culver 48-46 (a 12-point reversal from Branstad's actual 53-43 win).

Also, a plurality of Iowans support gay marriage over civil unions. It's 35 marriage, 29 civil unions, and 33 no recognition at all. It'd be interesting to see what the results would be if respondents were pushed to choose between marriage or nothing; while most civil unions people might be opposed to marriage, I'm sure a chunk of them would rather have marriage than nothing.

Lastly, PPP asked about approval ratings for a bunch of politicians (caveat: statewide, not by CD), and it's a mixed bag for us. On the one hand, Latham's 31-22 is better than Boswell's 28-30. However, Christie Vilsack's 38-23 is much better than Steve King's 27-34.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


That's not too surprising.
Branstad didn't close that strongly, Democrats didn't do that terrible in Iowa at the congressional level in 2010 and kept the state senate, and while Obama's approvals aren't as bad there as they are in states like OH and PA.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)

[ Parent ]
Fourth Affair for Newt Gingrich?
Despite its redesign which makes the site ludicrously frustrating to navigate, Gawker's a good way to let your brain relax for a few minutes. One of the best features is Blind Items, which describes the situation a celebrity is in but doesn't name who the person is. Going through previous postings, I found this:

"So, this is not really celebrity gossip per se, but it is tabloid fodder, so I think it works. There is a Republican out there who is in the top three or four potential candidates for President. He wants to desperately run, but is trying to come up with a payoff for his mistress. Cheating is not unusual for him considering he even married a mistress in the past."

Is there any way this isn't Newt Gingrich, if it's true? If so, and if he somehow wins the nomination before this comes out, doesn't this further undercut his already slim chances of defeating Obama, particularly since the president is squeaky clean when it comes to personal matters? Would he fall below 40 percent?

http://gawker.com/#!blinditems...

http://www.crazydaysandnights....


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


No
Nobody cares about hypocrisy anymore in this country. It's frustrating but as cynical as it sounds, after seeing a politician tell me I shouldn't have the right to get married and then get caught with his pants down for the 60th time, I've realized that affairs are the most IOKIYAR-iest thing around.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Feels kind of dirty to sit about guessing who the philanderer is
If so and so does run, it'll be found out. If they don't... it'll probably be found out.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Why does it feel dirty?
Part of the reason I asked, by the way, was because I don't know that much about the personal lives of these guys. Not that I care one way or the other, of course, but if something like this were to come out about Mitch Daniels, it'd subtract a lot from one of his key selling points: he's a boring, managerial type that wants to do his job and nothing more.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Because any supposition is going to be based on dissecting the personal character of people we've never met
To me, there's a certain sliminess that's inseparable from the idea of sitting behind our pseudonyms on the Internet, trying to figure out which Republican public figure would be most likely to cheat on his wife.

I'm not trying to say personal lives should be left out of politics. I was right there with everyone else bashing Chris Lee, but there was photographic evidence and an actual investigation (of sorts) with that whole thing, not a tip off about an unnamed (but certainly very Gingrich-esque) Republican that originated on some celeb gossip site.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Well, I don't really
care that much either way. What bothers me is the hypocrisy of it: it's a little nutty someone like David Vitter is still in politics while someone like Eliot Spitzer isn't. But regardless, I understand where you are coming from.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be surprised if this is Newt.
The only reason I think a new affair would hurt Newt is that it would force the media to cover his adulterous past. The media really gives the Republican candidates a pass on affairs while hammering Democrats for them.

However, I can't imagine that Newt could really win the GOP nomination in the first place, so in the end a new affair won't matter.


[ Parent ]
Hayley Barbour and Race
Here's an interesting article on Hayley Barbour and race. Perhaps it's my own ignorance of the history of this region, but this does seem to paint him in a more favorable light. Still, I see can see how he would feel it's very, very hard to talk about this, especially against a candidate like Obama, and why he would feel it would prevent him from being able to win. Here is a key paragraph:

Mott said that one early morning in the mid-1960s, the salesman who worked for the office supply business that was attached to the Herald called him in a panic. "He said, 'I need to see you right away,'" Mott recalled. "He lived up on the hill near Hayman's Bluff, and I went up there to see him and he met me with no shirt on, unshaven, and he was holding a .45 pistol." The salesman told Mott that he had been working undercover for the FBI to help infiltrate the local Klan, but that his cover had been blown, and now he needed $500 so he and his wife and child could leave town. "I didn't have five hundred dollars, so I called Haley's uncle." Together, William and Haley's mother, LeFlore, who worked as William's legal secretary, went to meet with the salesman at a local motel-and, in exchange for $500, he told them the names of all the local members of the Klan. ""And, the result of that, through economic pressure, some of those would-be Klan leaders were treated just like the blacks were treated who signed that petition," Mott said."And they left. No violence. Never. And nothing illegal. Economic pressure. 'Hey, you owe me money. Pay me now or I'll sue.' That kind of stuff. They foreclosed on loans or mortgages and drove you out of business. Gone. And that's what they did. Now that's probably not a point, but that's who they were."

http://www.gq.com/news-politic...



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


For one, those are his parents
And Haley Barbour is on the record as saying, basically, 'I don't remember things being that bad' when asked about the Civil Rights era.  

[ Parent ]
Well, as the article said,
it wasn't as if there was a race riot every day in his high school or something. It sounds like he was sheltered from this stuff, because it wasn't in his face every day, and he was a young guy who was more concerned about girls and football. So maybe he was being truthful, because that was in fact what he experienced.

Actually, think of it this way. This is certainly the worst the economy has been in three decades, if not seven decades, yet I have a job and am not struggling to afford anything ordinary. For me, it's not that bad. So when I am asked when I am Barbour's age about what it was like, if I say something like that, it doesn't mean I'm being purposefully vague or trying to whitewash history.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
For one, those are his parents
And Haley Barbour is on the record as saying, basically, 'I don't remember things being that bad' when asked about the Civil Rights era.  

[ Parent ]
Obama in NC
49/48 approval, leads Huckabee 48-47, Romney 47-44, Newt 49-45, Palin 52-40 and Trump 51-39.

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

This is indicitive of two things in my mind. Firstly, the demographics of the state suit the president much better than traditional Democratic states like Pennsylvania. Liberal whites in the Research Triangle are holding up his numbers while conservative whites in the latter are dragging his numbers down. Secondly, the state is trending Democratic in general. Perhaps more so than was previously thought. The two aren't mutually exclusive obviously. There is the potential there for a seriously strange map next year.


Yeah, I wouldn't be terribly surprised
if Obama does better in NC than in "traditional" swing states like Ohio or Florida.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm still of the opinion
He either loses comfortably or wins with a similar map but as I say there is at least the potential for some strange results.

[ Parent ]
agreed
I could see him winning VA/NC/CO/NM at the cost of OH/FL

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
While...
Even though the current NC map is a Democratic map, Dems did hold up a lot better there then they did in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania at the Congressional level, only losing one seat (which, seeing as how Obama won Etheridge/Ellmer's seat, we probably wouldn't lost if Etheridge hadn't imploded).

I would be pretty surprised if Obama did worse in PA than in NC, but long term Dems may have more success at the presidential level in North Carolina than in, say, Florida.

20, Democrat, Male, MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College)


[ Parent ]
I'm not worried about Pennsylvnia.
I'll need to see some more polling on Pennsylvania before I worry. That last one from PPP had some seriously weird results.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying I'm particularly worried
About losing PA. But the fact he has lost support there while staying at the same level in NC says quite a bit.

[ Parent ]
I should have been clearer.
I mean that I am not worried because I cannot see a strong likelihood that he wins North Carolina despite but loses Pennsylvania because of conservative white Democrats not voting for Obama. I'm ready to be convinced otherwise if there's proof, but so far I've seen nothing that this effect is that large. This is just a guess, but I would think that this the group is the same group that went for Bush in 2004 in Pennsylvania, pushing John Kerry's numbers amongst Democrats down to 85 percent. Yet, Kerry still won the state, despite also doing quite a bit better than Republicans normally do amongst black voters. And that's another thing: while it's possible there will be some drop off amongst black voters, I somehow doubt someone like Mitt Romney will get 20 percent of them against Obama.

At this point, I still think Obama will win, and if he does, he will win both Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Sestak's surge made me feel better about Pennsylvnia
I mean we came within about 2 points of winning Pennsylvnia in 2010 after we were down by about 10 points for six solid months. Republicans won the national vote by about 6.6~% in 2010, but only won Pennsylvnia  by about 2 or 3. That indicates there is still a Democratic tilt there.  

[ Parent ]
I remember
reading that the White House was looking at the statewide results in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as an indication of what they might need to do in 2012.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Plouffe was specifically tasked..
With OH-gov, FL-gov, and CO-all.  He got 50% and very close with the other two.  

Pennsylvania is always fools gold for the GOP.  They always think they can win it, yet never manage to do it.  It will probably be a tough state again, but it's still a very Dem state.


[ Parent ]
How much tougher?
I kind of go by the assumption that if Kerry can win the state, Obama can, unless he's pretty much guaranteed to lose. The exception to this sort of rule might be if a home state candidate ends up on a ticket.

Pennsylvania is one of those states that never seems to go beyond a certain range. Even when he spanked Mondale all over the country, Reagan only beat him by seven in that state. Obama won it by a little more than ten points. That's a very, very solid margin, one that any Democrat should be happy with in almost any state. He can always increase, and perhaps he might by default (i.e. candidates usually doing better their second time around) or because he faces a Palin-esqe candidate. He could, however, go down, but by how much? If he wins it by seven, is that really bad?  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
source for Plouffe?
Where'd you hear what his assignments were for 2010?

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh, man, that was awhile ago...
Certainly, Politico reported on it, but it was also mentioned in WaPo and a few other places.  We talked about it here as well.  The news came out in October.  Let's see if I can google up anything:

Well, look at that... a link back to this very site referencing Chuck Todd:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

I can't find Todd's own words, but I remember seeing it in some other sources as well.


[ Parent ]
thanks
I didn't really start commenting here until the ramp up to 2010 and only became a daily user afterwards

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
North Carolina consistently astounds me......
Obama has held up very consistently there, very little fluctuation, through his Presidency.  It's heartening.

Polls like this one are what always leave me convinced Obama will win reelection.  Yeah things could change, but no matter what his job approvals nationally, he's always been the better bet than any Republican.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Those are some good numbers,
especially since Obama won't need NC to win reelection. If NC goes Dem next year, VA will have already fallen our way.

[ Parent ]
Any SSPers from Hawaii?
The Hawaii Reapportionment Commission (responsible for redistricting) is looking for a chair and is accepting applications from the public until May 1. Application details here.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Would they pay for me to come to Hawaii if I applied?


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Well, they certainly can't expect you to pay your own way. It's expensive!
I think it's cheaper to fly to Hawaii from Japan than from some parts of America.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
A nice article and interview with
AG Kamala Harris in Harpers Bazar.

http://www.harpersbazaar.com/m...

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


WI Recall: Dems have enough signatures for Cowles.
There were already tea leaves that this was coming soon, but he's something a bit more official:
http://www.postcrescent.com/ar...

That DC Council special election
Results here: http://www.dcboee.us/2011_spec...

Early vote appears to be in (all 2,196 votes), and Vincent Orange (a former member of the Council) is leading Patrick Mara (the one Republican) by about 4%, with appointed Council member Sekou Biddle 1% behind Mara. Mara is doing well in the whiter wards (2, 3, and 6), while Orange is dominating the black-heavy wards (4, 5, 7, and 8). Biddle seems to be drawing support fairly equally across the board, though he seems to be doing slightly better in the whiter parts of the city.

Of course, this is all from the early vote only.


Just about all the precincts in
Orange wins by about 2.5%.

[ Parent ]
I was bored
so I decided to draw a New Mexico map and see how many Hispanic voters I could put in one district for the lulz.

Blue: 24% white, 69% Hispanic, 3% Native American (28/66/3 VAP)
Green: 55% white, 32% Hispanic, 6% Native American (59/29/6 VAP)
Purple: 43% white, 37% Hispanic, 16% Native American (48/33/15 VAP)

Pretty cool how even if you pack as many Hispanics into one district as possible, you still get another minority-majority district and one that's close to being minority-majority.

With this map we also get to play a game where we count all the reasons this could never happen. I count five (tradition, Dems control legislature, racial gerrymander, unfairly packs minorities, splits reservations). How many can you find?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


UNLV College GOP harass Dina Titus; Titus strikes back.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/new...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


The comment section is filled
with those College Republicans. They have one hell of a vendetta against Titus.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
No honor at all.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Pres of CR
Isn't she like in her 40s? It's bizarre, but hey, how else would Nevada fill its college republicans chapter?

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]

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