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SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 4:21 PM EDT


• AK-Sen: I hope the Alaska journalist corps is fueled up on coffee and is ready to go on a week-long dumpster diving binge, because the mother lode just got opened up. A state superior court judge just ordered that Joe Miller's Fairbanks borough personnel records get released, saying the people's right to know trumps Miller's privacy concerns. The release won't happen until tomorrow, though, to allow time for an Alaska Supreme Court decision if necessary.

• CA-Sen: The polls can't seem to decide whether the California Senate race is tightening, loosening, or staying basically the same, but it was enough to finally get Carly Fiorina to do what the NRSC had probably hoped she would have done months ago: she put $1 million of her own money into the race. (She'd spent $5 mil of her own on the primary, but nothing since then.) On top of that, the NRSC is throwing an additional $3 million into the race for the last week, while Barbara Boxer is calling the bluff with $4 million from her account for ads of her own.

• NV-Sen: As we expected, Harry Reid's been keeping up a steady drip-drip of endorsements from prominent Republicans around Nevada. The most recent one: term-limited state Sen. Dean Rhoads, who represents almost all of the state (geographically) except Clark and Washoe Counties. (H/t LookingOver.)

• FL-Gov: Wow, Bill McCollum actually ate his own cat fud. With little time left on the clock, he swallowed any remnants of his pride and endorsed primary rival Rick Scott, the guy he swore he'd never endorse.

• RI-Gov: Interesting approach from a blue state Dem: Frank Caprio just told the President to "shove it," in reaction to Barack Obama's apparent decision not to endorse him when he was in Rhode Island today. Payback for Lincoln Chafee's Obama endorsement in '08? Or reverse payback for Caprio's reported flirting with a party switch? Or elaborate theater staged for Caprio's benefit, to help distance himself from the White House?

• OH-Gov: Obama and Biden alert! The Dynamic Duo are adding yet another campaign stop in Ohio, where saving Ted Strickland seems to be one of the White House's top priorities. On Sunday, both will appear with Strickland, and then there'll be a Biden/Strickland stop later in Toledo.

• CA-47: Um, maybe someone should tell Van Tran that taking a page from the Carl Paladino playbook isn't really a good idea right now... Tran's out with foul-smelling scratch-and-sniff mailers in the district, hitting Loretta Sanchez for the "stench of Washington."

• CO-04: Add one more body on the plague wagon: the DCCC brought out Betsy Markey on Friday. They announced that they won't be spending any more on the 4th this cycle. They'd previously drawn down their efforts here, but now they're fully pulling out. (If there's a bright spot, this is probably their last triage move... with one week left, there's really no time left to cut anyone else off.)

• FL-12: Is there a growing sense of Republican worry in this district? They shouldn't lose an R+5 district in this climate, but they have probably the most credible 3rd party Tea Party challenger anywhere here, in the form of an actual county commissioner, Randy Wilkinson, who internals polls have seen taking gobbling up double-digit vote shares. They're taking the problem seriously enough to have Newt Gingrich doing robocalling on behalf of GOP nominee Dennis Ross, suggesting that Wilkinson is a plant from next door's Alan Grayson.

• IN-02: Oooops. Jackie Walorski ran footage in a web video of a South Bend neighborhood as an example of a neighborhood "in ruin" from Democratic policies. The residents of the neighborhood are now deeply offended, saying their neighborhood is hardly ruined at all, and are demanding an apology.

• KS-03: In a more normal year, this might be enough to do some serious damage in a close race: just-released police records show that Kevin Yoder (the GOP's nominee here) refused to take a breath test during a 2009 traffic stop. He pled guilty to speeding, also received a citation for not taking the test, and it was left at that.

• MS-04: Look who's in a bit of a panic, and revealing his true stripes: Gene Taylor just let his district's voters know that he isn't one of those Demmycrats at all! Why, he even voted for John McCain in 2008, he says.

• PA-11: Bill Clinton's traveling schedule takes him to three blue-collar districts that were, in the '08 Dem primaries, some of the most die-hard Clinton districts anywhere, now all home to pitched battles. He's appearing in the 11th tomorrow in support of Paul Kanjorski (who we'd expected, a few months ago, to be the first Dem incumbent we wrote off, but who seems to still be in the thick of things). On Thursday, he also visits PA-03 and PA-15.

• VA-05: If you weren't already sold on Tom Perriello's particular brand of awesome, check out the highlight reel of some of the best clips from his most recent debate with Rob Hurt.

• WA-06: Here's an internal poll that's a real head-scratcher, that requires a bit of explanation. Rob Cloud, the same doofus who runs against Norm Dicks every cycle (four times in a row now) and gets crushed, claims to have an internal poll out giving him a four-point lead over the long-time Dem. (Well, four if you do your own math. For some reason, the poll gave actual respondent totals only, 609 to 558 with 95 undecided. If that strange method doesn't by itself set off alarm bells, the polling firm is someone called Wenzel (out of Ohio), a company I'd only heard of once, when they polled OH-Gov and OH-Sen last year on behalf of Ohio Right to Life... but (h/t to quiller) it turns out have a regular gig as WorldNetDaily's pollster and have been responsible for extremely leading-question-rife polls about Barack Obama's citizenship. And on top of all that, Dicks won the Top 2 primary (the most reliable poll possible) with 57% of the vote, with a combined GOP vote share of 43% (of which Cloud got a pathetic 29%),which shouldn't imply much vulnerability. On the other hand, Dicks' district is "only" D+5, one of the least-blue districts that isn't home to an on-the-radar race... and moreover, Dicks has seemed pretty invisible as far as I can tell, compared with next-door neighbor Adam Smith who's in a similarly D+5 district but got a polling-related wake-up call and has been working his butt off lately. So, uh... who knows?  

• NRCC: Eager to maximize last-minute take-over opportunities, the party of fiscal responsibility is throwing some more debt on the pile. The NRCC just took out a $20 million line of credit to fund some more late-in-the-game advertising.

• Dark Money: Just as the actual universe's mass is mostly composed of dark energy and dark matter, so too the political universe is apparently mostly composed of dark money these days. Hotline's Jeremy Jacobs has an excellent piece that pulls together all the GOP spending by shadowy third-party groups, fleshing out the IE picture greatly, and also showing a remarkable amount of avoidance of duplication of efforts in the districts. They couldn't actually be coordinating their efforts behind-the-scenes, you think? (Not that that's illegal, as far as I know.)

• IEs: Speaking of IEs, if you haven't been following spiderdem's weekly series over in the diaries regarding the back-and-forth battle of the independent expenditures between the DCCC and NRCC, you absolutely should. It rounds all the numbers up in one handy place, and puts them in the context of the probable lay of the land.

• SSP TV:
• AK-Sen: Here's that NRSC ad mentioned late last week, where they hit Scott McAdams in a preemptive attack to keep him from shooting the gap (and here's the SOTB: $75K)
• CA-Sen: No more giddy Carlyfornia Dreaming here, with a dour ad from the Fiorina camp hitting Barbara Boxer for California's dire economic straits
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio's closing statement is a plain talk-to-the-camera spot saying "Reclaim America!"
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold's out with the ad that he should have run about two months ago, making fun of Ron Johnson's whiteboard and platitudes
• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez makes the Diane Denish/Bill Richardson connection about as explicit as humanly possible in her new spot
• FL-22: Ron Klein seems to have finally moved away from Allen West's homeowners association liens, with the Outlaws gang connections too juicy even for him to ignore
• ID-01: Walt Minnick cites his independence and rags on Raul Labrador for getting his own last ad pulled for its bogusness
• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann for, well, being a "celebrity"
• VA-05: Robert Hurt goes after Tom Perriello for being a Washington insider

• Rasmussen:
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 56%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%
• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Dan Coats (R) 52%
• MD-Gov: Martin O'Malley (D-inc) 52%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 42%
• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 72%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 45%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 28%, John Robitaille (R) 25%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 35%
• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 36%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 55%
• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 51%
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Afternoon Edition)
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Afternoon Edition) | 261 comments
PPP CA
From this afternoon's post about Prop 19, it sounds as though Brown and Boxer have upwards of 10 point leads in their respective races:

Here's the particularly relevant passage:

"There is no way of knowing for sure whether the voters who say Prop 19 is what they're most interested in would vote this year if it wasn't on the ballot. But we do know that group favors Barbara Boxer by a 34 point margin and Jerry Brown by a 36 point margin. At 10% of the electorate that means the marijuana question could be worth as much as 3.4% for Boxer and 3.6% for Brown. We find both of them ahead by a good deal more than that but if California ends up being closer than we expect Prop 19 could really end up being a difference maker for the Democrats at the top of the ticket."

WA-07, 34 years old

MN-Gov
http://www.minnpost.com/ericbl...

St Cloud State University Poll

Dayton: 40 percent
Emmer: 30 percent
Horner: 19 percent
Other, don't know, refused: 11 percent


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Dayton is holding steady. As long as Horner
and Emmer continue to split the vote, we should be fine.
[ Parent ]
Boxer ahead by 10+ points would be a major outlier
But mid-to-high single digits sounds pretty realistic. With the governor's race seemingly moving in Brown's direction, I have a hard time seeing any real chance of Fiorina winning even with a massive money dump.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
Whoops, meant to reply to BenP's comment
n/m.

24, CA-14, previously DC-AL
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I agree - but I wouldn't be surprised to see her up 8 ponts. Thats about my guess.

WA-07, 34 years old
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily...
LA Times had Boxer +8 yesterday.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but even Boxer's internals supposedly have it closer
And, we already know Fiorina's have it tied, 44-44.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That's assuming
the "close internal" line (from Team Boxer) isn't strategic, to keep GOTV strong and motivation high.

Sure, I could see it either way. Maybe these two polls are at the higher end of what the state of the race is today, or maybe they're the first glimpse of decisive movement toward Boxer.

The Field Poll should help show which of these readings is right.

[ Parent ]
MS-4
Is there really any fear that Gene Taylor could lose? I mean, the latest poll is pretty positive for him. It's the internal Tarrance Group poll from his Republican challenger, Steven Palazzo, conducted Oct. 18-19.

http://polltracker.talkingpoin...

Palazzo (R) 43%
Taylor (D) 41%

Adjusting for the partisan bias of the poll, it more closely resembles...

Taylor (D) 43%
Palazzo (R) 38%

A five point lead for Taylor is pretty good for him, no?

No, that's not good for Taylor. He's in serious trouble......
He wouldn't have revealed he voted for McCain if he wasn't in DEEP trouble with white voters in his district.

And there's no appropriate "adjustment" for a GOP internal to "make it right."  Any internal by either party just has to be evaluated on its own merits, to whatever extent possible.

All the buzz is that Taylor's vulnerability is very real.

There will be nothing surprising about him losing.

There won't be anything surprising about him winning, either, as he's conservative enough that the voters might very well give him a pass.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ehh...
I'm not one of the purists who wishes for the GOP to beat conservadems.  But in truth, does Taylor losing impact the Dem or Progressive agendas in any way?  He's going to vote with GOP about 80% of the next term ( my guess).  Oh well.
[ Parent ]
True, but ...
... any Republican winning that district is going to be worse than him, and it would be an even further decreased presence of Democrats in the Deep South.  But is it all that important losing him?  That's debatable.

I will always have a ton of respect for Congressman Taylor, however, for the work he did and continues to do post-Katrina.

[ Parent ]
new repubs in the south can do little damage
However a long term Dem could.  He won't of course bit i'm not afraid of this wave of southern GOPers.  I prefer Taylor to the GOP.  I'm more worried about southern dem defections post election to be honest.
[ Parent ]
Like whom?


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Who knows
All depends on who wins and where.  
[ Parent ]
I've been saying since July
That Taylor was in serious trouble.  Nobody believed it then.  I don't know why it's so surprising to people that a democrat in an R+20 district would be facing a tough re-election in a republican year.  Just by simply looking at the generic ballot in the south and the PVI you could tell that Palazzo was going to have a chance assuming he wasn't a total screw up.  

That doesn't mean I want Taylor to lose, far from it.  But let's face it, some districts just aren't meant to be.  Look at TX-17.  Edwards has been an electoral stalwart for many years now, but even he is struggling in his R+20 district this year, and probably won't survive.  

I think every single one of us would scoff at the notion of a republican holding a D+20 seat in a democratic year.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Truth is
I think there was a rather liberal Republican Congressman from Manhattan about 20 years ago (Bill Green?) who was holding down a district that was very Democratic for an entire decade.  That wouldn't happen now since Republican primary voters would have purged him.

Edwards is a far more valuable Congressman to the Democratic Party though.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
You're right
it is Bill Green. Lost to Carolyn Maloney in 1992.  
[ Parent ]
That's my district . . . .
And the NYC GOP primary electorate would not purge him.  Indeed, if the GOP could get a candidate of the quality and integrity of Green to run in Manhattan, they would jump at the chance.  

And the reason Green lost to Maloney in 1992 was not because the white collar, liberal East Side turned against him (he won that part of the district).  Rather, redistricting extended the district across the East River to Queens.  The blue collar Queens electorate was less liberal but more partisan Dem.  And, of course, had no experience with Green as an incumbent.  Accordingly, they voted overwhelmingly for Maloney in the pro-Dem 1992 election and pushed her over the top.  

[ Parent ]
This...
"I don't know why it's so surprising to people that a democrat in an R+20 district would be facing a tough re-election in a republican year."

I can give you a reason why it may be surprising to someone. That is, if we think the Cook PVI metric is completely meaningless.

[ Parent ]
It is very meaningless.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
They told you the same thing they told me
No one would Taylor lose in this district after all he has done, how conservative he is, how long he's been there, etc. Looks like we were right.  
[ Parent ]
See my comment below.
Just because you are in an R+15 district doesn't mean you have to lose. Bobby Bright's gonna win baring a major collapse and so will Walt Minnick. While one can argue Minnick's got it easy, Bright doesn't.

Bright campaigned, and knew his election would be tough.

Taylor went Coakley.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Bright
He is also a lot newer than Taylor. He was the mayor of the largest city in the district, and is from a district with a good sized black population. Taylor is from a southern MS district with a smaller black population. The anti-incumbent mood is more likely to hurt a 20 year incumbent. And, especially in states like MS and LA, there is a very pro-Republican, anti-Democratic mood, and an anti-Democratic mood is a lot more likely to hurt a lifetime Democrat who has been in office as a Dem all his life than a 2 yr Democrat who served as the nonpartisan mayor of the largest city in the district.  
[ Parent ]
Actually, I've had my eye on Taylor ever since Palazzo outraised him in 1Q
I have him at Lean D, but I wouldn't be surprised if he loses.
[ Parent ]
Your insistence
on using PVI as a reason that Taylor goes down this year is really weird.

Of the top ten districts held by a Democrat in a Republican district, they are going to be 6-4, 7-3, not bad at all.

Taylor is a great example of what Mark keeps talking about. (though he keeps referring to people like Oberstar and Tierney). Taylor thought he would be fine, and wouldn't have to fight against the Republican wave.

If he loses, it will not be because of some arbitrary PVI score against him. It will be because he woke up late to the generic Republican surge (Bobby Bright is up by mid single-digits? Why? He's campaigning) across the South, and thought he could skimp by Coakley anyone?

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Not a purist either
and I actually like Taylor (only because I find him amusing sometimes for weird reasons like he lives on his boat on the Potomac, never socializes with Dems but actually hates Repbulicans just as much as he hates liberals etc), but I could care less if he loses for a few reasons:

(1) On a micro level: He's reached his pinnacle of his political career, he'll never chair a full committee and he'll never be elected statewide in MS, so where does he go?

(2) On a professional political level: He's lazy at campaigning and I he was one of those Pelosi and Van Hollen called aside to warn of dangers ahead and he completely ignored them. By revealing his "I voted for McCain", he actually gives his opponent more ammo (e.g. "He says he voted for McCain but votes with Pelosi X % of the time so he's not only a fake conservative, he's a fraud etc). So he deserves to lose.

(4)On a more macro level: The more Southern the GOP is, the better it is for Dems on the national level because they are more likely to become the faces of the GOP in the future and therefore rub the national electorate even more wrongly. Not sure if you know this but there is still a residue of anti-Southern bias outside of the Mason-Dixie line. As the GOP has gotten more southern, their electoral reach has shruken, ala PA, MI, WI and now CO, NM, NV etc.

Southern conservatives feed on division and resentment, cos that is all they've known. Make them wear that proudly around their neck and they'll be shut out of the White House for years. Actually, I'd hoped Obama would reverse engineer Nixon's southern strategy, but who am I to expect cold blooded political Machiavellism from the DEmocrats huh?

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
I don't like Taylor at all, but yet I accept him unconditionally......
That he voted for McCain is one of those litmus tests he fails with me.

But the district is what it is, and he's the least conservative person who can get elected there, so I accept him without question and want him to win.  I'm a hard cold realist, and the "D" next to his name DOES make him worth something on floor votes.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
No more ammo, in his district
I suspect a substantial number of voters in his district are McCain Democrats.
[ Parent ]
It's 23% black
He needs those voters to turn out if he wants to get re-elected, so it's a risky verging on stupid move to take for two reasons.
[ Parent ]
By all accounts his post-Katrina work has been sterling
Maybe that gives him room to triangulate a little.
[ Parent ]
True, but 80 is less then 100, and 20 is more then 0.

[ Parent ]
He is in deep doo-doo
I don't know why he said that (if it is true) other then the fact that he is in serious trouble. He may very well be the Jim Leach of this cycle where the letter after his name is about the only reason that the voters left him. If he hangs on it will be by the skin of his teeth.  

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  
[ Parent ]
I disagree...
About the proper adjustment for partisan polls. Whenever a pollster is of the same party as a candidate and the poll shows that candidate tied, or with a slight lead, I automatically find that unimpressive and assume that candidate is slightly behind. That sounds pretty reasonable.

Evaluating them even on a case by case basis gives them too much credit. Of course, I'm highly skeptical of the most objective polls, let alone the partisan ones.

To your former point, the article makes it clear that Taylor's admission to voting for McCain was an answer to a direct question. That's something else that deserves some healthy skepticism: inferring meaning behind pols' answers to direct questions. So no, I don't see that as any evidence for Taylor being in "deep trouble". He may indeed wind up being in deep trouble, but his McCain admission isn't any solid evidence for it.  

[ Parent ]
Hope he loses
Or else switch parties so he doesn't have to be worried that people in his district think he would vote for a Nigra for president.
[ Parent ]
He
did a lot of work post Katrina for both AA's and whites and there is no need for language like that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
That's extraordinarily offense after his work after Katrina.
I'm sure you don't know Paleo......BUT we can't get Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders, Russ Feingold, or Maria Cantwell in that district! In fact, voting with your party 50% of the time, is far better than a right winger who votes with us 1% of the time!


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Um, wow, Paleo
That is actually so offensive that I read it several times just to be sure you said what I first read you said. I mean, seriously. Implying that all Southerners are racists is pretty prejudiced. As for Taylor himself? His district is over 25% non-white (of whom the vast majority are African-American). If black voters thought he was an awful racist, he would've been long gone by now.

Can I just remind everyone that we hold 3 of Mississippi's 4 House seats? In a state where Obama lost 56-43 and which hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (and even then, only 49.5%-47.7%). In Kansas, for example, where McCain won a pretty similar 57-42, 3 of the 4 seats are Republican, and all 4 might be Republican after the 2010 election. Plus, Taylor holds the congressional district that has given the Republican presidential candidate his best vote totals in the last 3 elections. Frankly, if he's representing his district, he should probably be even more conservative than he already is.

As to this whole party-switching idea, I think the example of Parker Griffith speaks loud and clear. It seems fairly unlikely at this point that even a strong politician like Taylor (when he campaigns) or Bobby Bright could win a Republican primary.

And finally, what happened to the 50-state strategy? Conceding an entire region of the country is stupid, even if that region is the Deep South.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
You prefer "purebred" 100 Republican?
No "progressive" needs to apply here...
[ Parent ]
Re: Dark Money
The NY Times has a front page story today where GOP groups explicitly admit to coordinating IEs.
They are coordinating together
Not with campaign committees or candidates.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the shout out!
I was sorry you guys were not able to do your I.E. charts this cycle, so I have tried to fill the void and track I.E.'s in my own way.  I really appreciate the positive feedback from the community, as spending as much time as I have on it has not done me any favors with my wife!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Onorato at 45%
To me this is stunning.  I still feel he will lose but I never thought we'd see him at 45 one week out.  Both he and Sestak are closing fast.  Hopefully Clinton cam put some of the Dem reps over the top also.

I just wonder if Onorato is really at 45.  Makes no sense Ras would favor the Dem but who knows.

VA-02 - Indy poll says deadlock.
Christopher Newport University Poll
Rigell 41.5, Nye 41.0

http://hamptonroads.com/2010/1...

This is the third poll today showing candidates statistically tied in the low 40's.  SD-AL and MD-01 have been discussed in the digests earlier I believe.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Is this poll credible?
Not that it's good that he's down, of course, but hey, it could be a lot worse. A lot, lot worse.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
No, not credible. Christopher Newport polls are notorious for...
...sky-high undecideds.  Last year they polled VA-Gov and found something like 20% undecideds at a time when all other pollsters were seeing half that number.

CN doesn't do a lot of polls, but what they've done is underwhelming, except I suppose they pick the correct leader in blowouts like McDonnell's win.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Nevada Early Voting
A so so day in early voting on Sunday. Democrats actually led in turnout in Washoe County for the 1st time, although by only 10 votes and on a day with light turnout due to only about half the EV polling sites being open on Sunday. In Clark County turnout and the Dem advantage over Republicans were both slightly below the average so far. The Good news is in CD-03 Dems had their best margin percentage wise yet.

Clark County

Sunday

Dems 6,905 (45.92%)
Reps 5,653 (37.59%)
Other 2,479 (16.49%)

Total

Dems 63,629 (46.43%)
Reps 51,801 (37.8%)
Other 21,622 (15.78%)

Washoe County

Sunday

Dems 993 (43.1%)
Reps 983 (42.66%)
Other 328 (14.24%)

Total

Dems 15,085 (40.16%)
Reps 17,281 (46.0%)
Other 5,200 (13.84%)

CD-03

Sunday

Dems 3,783 (44.66%)
Reps 3,266 (38.56%)
Other 1,422 (16.79%)

Total

Dems 35,267 (43.71%)
Reps 32,332 (40.07%)
Other 13,087 (16.22%)

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Could the difference be
that Clark didn't count mail-in ballots yesterday? Ralston has been adding those to his daily totals, and those seem to be breaking for Dems in Clark at a rate higher than early in-person voting.
[ Parent ]
From Ralston's post today
http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo...

CLARK:

Sunday: Dems, 6,908 Rs, 5,651 rest, 2,480

Early: Dems, 63,632; Rs, 51,800 rest, 21,623

Mail: Dems, 10,674; Rs, 8,827 rest, 2,822

The "63,632" that Ralston label's as total early is similar to MNMike's "Dems 63,629". And that is separated in Ralston's post from Mail.    

[ Parent ]
Gotcha, thanks n/t

[ Parent ]
I noticed the small differance..
... between Ralston's numbers and those on the official websites. FWIW I have been using Clark and Washoe county's websites to keep track of the EV's.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
I do not believe any Mail in Ballots....
... are counted in the EV numbers for any day.

The Mail in Absentees in Clark County have about the same margin as the Early Votes.

Dems 10,674 (47.82%)
Reps 8,827 (39.54%)
Other 2,822 (12.64%)

The good news is traditionally Republicans have dominated Mail in Ballots in Nevada, this year Democrats are winning that battle.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Yeah, the NV Dem Party was proactive about it this cycle.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
SD-AL
Mason-Dixon Poll for The Argus Leader: SD-AL: Noem (R) leads Rep. Herseth-Sandlin (D) 45-43

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
SD-AL
There was today a poll from a brand new pollster that had Herseth-Sandlin +2, but they had Daugaard only +3, which even Heidepriem said that his internal poll shows him trailing by six points, Ras had Daugaard +20 or so, rated safe/likely R by Cook/Rothenberg.

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
How many times do you have to be asked
To post links? It isn't hard.
[ Parent ]
Links
I have a stupid old cellphone, primary internet usage on cellphone, can't post link, sorry, but just click http://argusleader.com it's the headline

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
Links
I see that typing the link made it clickable here, but I can't cut and paste these stuff on my ooold phone

22, Male, Conservative Republican, anti-teabag, NY-8
[ Parent ]
That kind of effort is appreciated

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Sunnofabiotch, the Angloid did it again!
After she defended her ad showing three stone-faced Mexican guys as "illegal aliens" by saying that they could be from anywhere, she then puts out another ad just like it.  It also repeats the thrice-debunked statement that Reid voted for social security and tax breaks for illegal immigrants.

Again, it shows the illegal immigrants as being clearly Latino and shows the American families and schoolchildren as all Caucasian.  She seriously has some racial issues or something.

I won't even embed it here, it burns me so much.  Also, wtf is with all the green?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!

I mean this is on par with that Vitter ad.
It's because of people like her that we can't do immigration reform.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Trying to read between the lines here...
Why is she reintroducing this theme? I assume it bears the risk of causing a backlash, and I would think that the voters to whom it appeals are not planning on voting for Reid anyway.

So - maybe it's just me, but doesn't this smack a little of desperation? Going back to the same well based on fear of underperformance in a certain subgroup?

Having said that, perhaps it was effective the first time, but at best I would think bringing these themes back up would bear diminishing returns.

[ Parent ]
Or...
Maybe her team is finding that the "Don't Vote" ad campaign toward Latinos backfired bigtime (boosting Latino turnout), and now she feels the need to build up bigger margins among whites?
[ Parent ]
Gallup Numbers
High Turnout
GOP 52(53)
Dem 43(42)
GOP +9

Low Turnout
GOP 55(56)
Dem 41(39)
GOP +14

RV
GOP 48(48)
Dem 44(43)
GOP +4

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143...

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

Convergence

[ Parent ]
Still disappointing for Dems,
especially that godawful low turnout number, but this line from the end of the report is encouraging:

Democrats appear to have closed that gap a little, particularly when the last four days of Gallup's interviewing are taken into account, and are thus doing slightly better in Gallup's voting estimates.

Since Gallup's weekly releases encompass two four-day periods of polling in two successive weeks, there's always 50% overlap with the previous release. The above quote suggests that the numbers for last week's sample alone would be more favorable to Dems than what they've reported for the two-week survey.

[ Parent ]
My reading also
The final polls will all be mid to high single digits.
[ Parent ]
No, it's just crap...
IMHO.

I stopped paying attention to many of these generic polls long ago. Gallup has actually been one of the worst this cycle with all these wild gyrations.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Actually,
Gallup's numbers have been pretty steady since they switched to the LV model 3-4 weeks ago. It was before that the numbers jumped around wildly.
[ Parent ]
Is anyone else craving
a new scandal? A few weeks ago we had Whitman's Nannygate, then Ashjian's Angle tape, and the Iott Nazi recreation flap, and Scott Miller's many mishaps, etc.

But there hasn't been much new material for a while. Are we due for a new one, or has early voting just moved them all up a couple weeks?

Nah,
I'm good. There's been enough crazy this cycle, and knowing our luck it would be someone with team blue. Does anyone think there are any huge scandals that will break before the election?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Minor New One
Barney Frank's MA-04 opponent Sean Bielat, who has been getting tons of love from conservative media as a potentially giant-killer, on gays in the military:

[i]"There's no absolute right to serve. Men under the height of 5 feet, 2 inches can't serve - I don't see anybody protesting. Where are the people standing in front of the White House, the short guys standing in front of the White House? You don't see it," Bielat said. "We understand that there's no absolute right to serve in all these other areas."[/i]

Aside from not being accurate (there are some combat posts with height restrictions like that, but they're not barred from the entire military), talk about a terrible metaphor.  Not to mention a position that's very much contrary to the general view in what is, let's not forget, a fairly liberal district.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
AZ-07: MoveOn.org releases positive Spanish-language ad for Grijalva.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Speaking of AZ
[ Parent ]
Giffords trails Kyl 39-53

[ Parent ]
Republicans decimating Democrats as a percentage of LV's
sample was 47R/33D/20I.  +14R.  by registration stats, Nate Silver saus AZ is +4R, and by self-ID in 2008 election, +7R.  if these numbers play out as the electorate, it doesn't look good for the House races.  Agree/disagree?
[ Parent ]
saus = says. that was an interesting typo

[ Parent ]
Boo
Yeah, we're definitely getting slaughtered by the Likely Voter Universe. Unfortunately, this meshes up with what I'm seeing on the ground. I think a lot of "less likely voters" who lean Dem became discouraged after the response to SB1070 appeared to be so positive, so they just disengaged politically. Goddard never managed to get them back into the fray.

Who knows, though? Brewer's supporters are the most excited, but this race strikes me as one of the more likely ones for a Democratic "Silent Majority." I don't know that I would bet on that, though. I really wish Arizona broke down early ballot requests by party.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
Hispanics only disapprove of SB 1070 by 14
42% in favor, 56% opposed. This doesn't seem quite right--have other polls found something similar or is this an outlier?

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Outlier. ALL other polls have found...
AZ Hispanics much more overwhelmingly opposed to the new law.

But crosstabs are unreliable, and a 15% subsample of 664 people equals 99 Hispanic respondents, probably with a double-digit margin of error.

I trust polls specifically of Hispanics, such as those conducted by Latino Decisions, over general polls, since those polls are done by people who KNOW HOW to poll Hispanics accurately, and of course by definition they are getting a reliably large sample of Hispanics since the polls are Hispanic-only.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Maybe it's the likely voter screen?
The Hispanics PPP deemed most likely to vote will obviously be citizens and may be a bit more conservative than a generic Arizona Hispanic because of the nature of the cycle. A general poll of Hispanics--which would include non-citizens and "unlikely voters"--might produce a more anti-SB1070 result.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
I don't think so because I think other "likely voter" polls differ from this one......
ALL other polling I've seen, in Arizona and elsewhere, too, shows Hispanics opposing this law in the 60s or 70s, and supporting it in the 20s or 30s.  That includes some with likely voter models, with the immigration law submerged under the horse race and other candidate-based questions.  This is the only poll I've run across that has support for the Arizona law in the 40s among Hispanics, and opposition only in the 50s.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
NV-Gov: Awesome web ad with Rory Reid and LV Mayor Oscar Goodman.
It's hilarious because Oscar Goodman kinda does a parody of himself.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Wow, neat
when did Oscar endorse Rory?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Just a couple weeks ago...
Either he must have thought his endorsement was the only thing that could put Rory over the top this week, or he withheld for so long because he really didn't want to see Rory win. Take your pick. And either way, Goodman has such a hyper-inflated ego that he really thinks he can tip this election (whether you want to believe he's helping Rory or sabotaging Rory).

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Beat me to it...
I don't know... Either it could be a last minute "game changer" or it's a total fiasco. Either way, it shows just how desperate Rory's campaign has become to make up those last few points separating him from Sandoval. (It's definitely a single digit race now, but he has only a week left to close that 6-9% gap and at least 25% of the electorate has already voted.)

Ralston hates it but Sebelius loves it, so the local punditry is split on the effectiveness of it. And btw, it's not just a web ad any more... Rory is actually putting this on TV this week! Lordy, help us all...

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
I'm with Ralston
It's actually a bit embarrassing to watch, IMO.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Compare and contrast...
Son's closing argument to Dad's...

And Dina's...

IMHO Rory's consultants haven't spent his money well.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
She gonna win! n/t

[ Parent ]
WOAH!
I had no idea Dina Titus had that thick a southern accent, I mean that's like the thickest I've ever heard.  
[ Parent ]
Seriously!
Her voice sounds like it should belong to Nikki Haley or Elaine Marshall. She's a Georgian by birth, so I guess that explains it.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Ralston needs a humor implant
Pretty good ad.
[ Parent ]
Here's a weird one...
Watching a Rory Reid web-ad naturally the Youtube ad was for Jon Barela for congress...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
VA-5 video, WOW
Periello was one of FOUR candidates I donated too. I'm in Texas, what else can I do? CAUSE THAT WAS AWESOME!!!!!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
It's awfully quiet on the polling front
for a Monday just one week out from election day.
Other than those PPP polls
I have not seen anything come out worth mentioning.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
How about
tie races in polls of SD-AL, VA-02, MD-01, MI-01, and Schrader crushing Bruun in OR-05.  Not a bad polling day at all.
[ Parent ]
I guess I expected to see
a bunch of Senate and Governor polling releases today, but it hasn't really happened. Hey - what about the usual DCCC Monday poll dump? Has that come out?
[ Parent ]
Are
you kidding Wish TV? They polled the second and seventh but not ninth. Geez, the SEVENTH. Results should be released soon. I'm sure they also polled SoS.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Watching
FL Gov debate. Neither Sink or Scott knew the min wage. Scott said a number and Sink agreed with him. They were both wrong.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Thought Sink was embarrassingly bad.
Evasive and very short on substance.  She spoke in platitudes and kept bringing up newspaper endorsements like it was a campaign ad.

Scott is smart and slick, but oh so slimey.  Really comes off as an asshole, but a competent one.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I
only caught the last of it but I thought Sink did seem a bit thrown off. She seemed the same way last time. Not a good debater at all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Scott
Scott has those "Runaway Bridge" crazy-eyes.  Sink came across like a whiney teenager (she was far better in the last debate I saw with her and Scott).  I still like Sink better as a candidate, but she seemed totally off her game.  BTW, what's with these Scott-type (awkward scarecrow-type) candidates?  He's like a clone of the GOP guy up in Wisconsin, and reminds me a lot of Rick Snyder here in Michigan.  I guess it's because they seem so unthreatening?

I'm not sure the format helped.  John King said he wanted an conservation, but cut them off and interupted each FAR too often when they were just getting started.  The other moderator was annoying as hell.

[ Parent ]
I think it's the outsider thing
This is a tough year for any "career politician" and, especially on the GOP side, businesspeople without ties to Washington are the new vogue. I would make a distinction between Scott and some of the other business-background GOP candidates (Johnson, Snyder, etc.) because he's got an air of arrogance and slickness, while many of the others have a sort of folksy "man-of-the-people" air about them (Johnson, in particular, has strove to created this image in his ads.)

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Watched
Both of them were far from smooth, but Sink was far worse.  I actually liked the moderators holding their  feet to the fire, though.  Not sure if the debate changed anybody's mind - probably not.  I still think Sink needs a better closing argument than 'My opponent is a crook.'

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22
[ Parent ]
He
is a crook. Anyone who knows what he did and would still vote for him, well I just don't get it. I can honestly say I could never support someone like that D or R. It goes against my ethical compass. It's the best argument Sink has and she needs to make it. If Scott wins, it truly means you can buy an election.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Right...
If the closing argument "My opponent is a crook" doesn't work, when your opponent IS essentially a crook, we're in a heap of trouble.
[ Parent ]
what the hell?
What's up with firing the staffer who sent her a message during the debate?  If she knew it was against the rules, why did she have her blackberry or whatever on her?  And why would she be checking it?  I don't know what the staffer sent or why, but just firing them like that to save yourself is a little lame.  Expect the noise machine of the far right to hammer this all day.  Ugh.
[ Parent ]
The cell phone
was brought to her by a makeup artist, so it was not "on her."  Sink used the information provided, which was that an attorney in a lawsuit against one of her former companies said she did nothing wrong, later in the debate.  Worse, the person who wrote the text was the very person who signed the debate agreement that said no messages.  What a bunch of nimrods.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
The cell phone
was brought to her by a makeup artist, so it was not "on her."  Sink used the information provided, which was that an attorney in a lawsuit against one of her former companies said she did nothing wrong, later in the debate.  Worse, the person who wrote the text was the very person who signed the debate agreement that said no messages.  What a bunch of nimrods.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I think...
the format favored Scott.  He would constantly interrupt and get his points in and since the moderators wanted a "conversation" type of format, the moderators never actually moderated until late.  Early on, he actually came off to me as a bully, which I don't think will play well with women.

The number of commercial breaks (about five or so) really hurt the flow of the debate.  They promised Sink would get to respond to one of Scott's attacks when they went to their last break of the night, but they instead went to some lightning round format, which is why Sink trying to explain the newspaper endorsements looked bad.

She definitely seemed flustered by the end of the debate.  She struggled with her answer on the Obama liberal charge, but was OK after that and managed to get a couple of decent shots on Scott, but she was well off her game by the end of the debate.  She was much better in the last one.  That's my take anyway.

[ Parent ]
Sink is a pretty disappointing candidate...
But you know, I'd probably vote for most anyone over Rick Scott. Why isn't Rick Scott in jail, again?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native
[ Parent ]
Sink's credentials are actually pretty solid...
However, she's not a great public speaker, which should debunk the "Tallahassee insider" label, since she's only been in public office for 4 years and is the highest ranking Democrat in a Republican-dominated state government.
[ Parent ]
WI-03: NRCC going up on air against Kind
Might be 11th hour movement there
In addition to the one or two surprise seats that hardly anyone was looking at, it seems like there's always a district or two that is on the radar but does not get much attention for most of the cycle, but then rapidly tightens in the closing days. VA-05 was sort of like that last time around.

Kind has seemingly been at Likely D for over a year now, and I don't even know his challenger's name. But there's a chance that Johnson and Walker win the district, and maybe there's an internal that shows a close race.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Trivia Q
What was the latest that the DCCC went up on air in a district in 2006/2008 and won?  Two weeks?  More?  In VA-05 I think they were up on air three weeks before the election.
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see them go up in FL-12
this weekend, looking for an upset without much time for Team R to respond. I hope they have some tricks planned.
[ Parent ]
IA-Gov: new Culver internal 46-40
So says the Culver campaign:


Culver Momentum Continues: Now a 6-Point Race
DES MOINES - Culver/Judge Campaign Manager Donn Stanley announced today that a new internal poll shows the Governor's race has tightened even further to a six-point race. A poll of 600 general election Iowa voters conducted by Global Strategies Group found that 40 percent of Iowans support Governor Culver versus 46 percent for Terry Branstad.  

Five percent of voters favor minor-party candidates, and 9 percent are undecided. The poll also found that more than a quarter, 26 percent, of voters are either undecided or are still willing change who they will vote for on November 2.

"With one week to go, this poll shows that Chet Culver clearly has the momentum in this race," Stanley said. "While Terry Branstad is hiding out to avoid scrutiny of his record and positions, Governor Culver has been crisscrossing the state, talking to Iowans about his vision for the future of our great state. Make no mistake, Chet Culver and Patty Judge are going to win this race. They have the commitment, the drive, and the vision to move our state forward."

The poll was conducted from Oct. 22-25, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

I don't know about a poll taken over the weekend, but I have heard that various campaigns' internal polls have shown Culver gaining on Branstad. I still doubt he has enough time to take a lead, but it should be better for our down-ticket candidates if Culver loses narrowly rather than getting blown out. Supposedly Dem internals now show Culver ahead in IA-02, for instance--that would be good news for Loebsack.

I'm
watching a rerun of the MN Gov debate on CSPAN. Yawn, Yawn, Yawn. I love watching CSPAN but all three of these guys are uninspiring as heck. They look and sound the same. Politics fascinates me but this is SO boring. No one is winning or losing.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
And they have done this 25+ times
There have been so many debates nobody watches anymore and they get very little press attention.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Colorado early vote numbers: Republicans still ahead
http://cbs4denver.com/news/In....

Roughly 42% Republican, 36% Democrat.

Which brings up an interesting point, I think... PPP and SurveyUSA are seeing small early voting leads for Bennet (49/46 in PPP and 51/45 in SUSA).  Yet the turnout so far is fairly hostile looking.  Either their early vote numbers are off, and Bennet is in bad shape (which I don't really believe since they both reached the same finding there), or Bennet is getting pretty good numbers among independents and crossover votes.

Ambinder touched on this a few days ago...
The numbers might look a little different since then, but this might help provide context.

There is no Republican surge/tsunami/wave/upwelling/flood/what-have-you.

Democrats are "losing" statewide, but they're losing at a pace that is similar to the pace they were losing in 2008, when they won the state. Democrats say that their voter rolls have shrunk, generally, because they've tended to them well -- and because 50,000 voters have moved out of state.

A few points: there are more Republicans on the permanent absentee list, so it doesn't surprise either Democrats or Republicans that the total number of ballots returned will favor Republicans. However, of regular midterm voters, Democrats are casting ballots at a slightly higher rate than Republicans.

And of all the ballots cast, Democratic ones make up a higher percentage than they did in 2008 -- 36.8 percent to 36.5 percent. Democrats have tracked 15,000 votes from Denver over the past two days, and only 22 percent of them are Republican.

Democrats say that independent voters are breaking for Sen. Michael Bennet* by 10 percentage points -- 55 percent to 45 percent, according to Dem polling. If this is correct, both Democrats and Republicans have requested about an equal number of ballots, given that 513,000 Democrats, 558,000 Republicans, and 450,000 independents requested them.

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

[ Parent ]
Ambinder posted a much better follow-up today, including detailed Colorado discussion (link)......
This is a VERY good piece, and for context, this follows a piece Ambinder did last week where he said both parties' polling suggested sporadic Republicans were far more likely to vote than sporadic Democrats.

http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...

Here is the key text:

But some of you asked me earlier how I could make the tentative claim that the "enthusiasm" or "intensity" gap that's reflected in likely voter surveys is not yet materializing. Basically, if Republicans WERE more excited, then  Republican "sporadic" or "infrequent" voters -- as well as Republican 2008 first time voters -- would be voting at higher early rates than Democrats.

In Colorado, the data is not in agreement with the story. First, note that Denver was late getting out its ballots this year, Democrats are more likely to vote in person, and Democrats turn in ballots later. To date, Democrats have turned in a higher number of ballots as a percentage of Democrats versus Republicans compared to 2006. 48 percent of ballots have been cast by Democrats, and in 2006, 46.7 percent were cast by Democrats. According to GOP internal estimates, the party has a 113-vote lead in the number of identified early voters who've returned ballots, and a 4,000 vote lead overall. But the Democrats were further behind at this point in 2008.

In Colorado, Democrats say they're happy with the voter profile of Democrats who are turning out. If there IS a Republican surge, that means that someone with a different partisan identity but the same voting history should be voting at a different rate. And that's just not true, according to the data to date. (See an internal DNC memo here.)



43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Excellent analysis, thanks...
I hadn't seen that.

I'm feeling pretty good about NV and CO.

[ Parent ]
SUSA Colorado crosstabs
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Crosstabs are finally up from SUSA's Colorado polling a couple days ago.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Lots of agreement with PPP
Very strange: breaking even with whites and not pulling away with Hispanics.

Salazar would have put this one away. Oops.  

[ Parent ]
Lots of agreement with PPP
Very strange: breaking even with whites and not pulling away with Hispanics.

Salazar would have put this one away. Oops.  

[ Parent ]
Sub-tabs could be screwy...
I can't imagine the contest being close among Latinos.

And actually, I think Bennet is a great candidate for this cycle - likable, relatable, not too entrenched to reek of incumbency.

Let's see how it plays out.

[ Parent ]
I'd hate to lose his seat but I do not like Gene Taylor
I know it's amazing we have a Democrat in an R+20 district at all and he's the only Democrat who could occupy it, but this is getting a little ridiculous. How long before Jim Marshall starts saying he voted for McCain in 2008 too?

Why is Taylor even a Democrat if it's such a drag? He voted for three of the articles of impeachment against Bill Clinton!

Let him lose
Enough is enough.  Besides, he'll probably jump ship if he wins.
[ Parent ]
Ha, no chance of that after what happened to Parker Griffith.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
If he does it smartly
He can win. Griffith was stupid. He waited until a Republican challenger had time to raise big $$ before jumping in.  
[ Parent ]
It would be a course
littered with landmines. And I'm not sure what the motivation would be, once he had won his reelection as a Democrat in one of the most difficult environments possible.
[ Parent ]
That Trick Is Not Going To Work Anymore
It worked back in the days when the GOP in the Deep South  had no bench, and damn near everyone voting Republican was a former Democrat so they could identify with the party-switcher.

But now there are people who have been running with the Republican brand nearly everywhere and aren't going to get out of the way for a senior Congressman trying to save his ass by switching parties. And the voters are going to identify much more with those candidates, especially in Republican primaries.



36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
I
don't particularly like him much but after all the hard, commendable work he did after Katrina, he will always have my support. He would never switch. Like the person said above Parker Griffith is to thanks for that. Same with Minnick or Bright. They aren't stupid enough to switch.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He didnt jump ship in 1994
After Republicans took the House.  
[ Parent ]
A point in Taylor's favor
During the twelve years that the GOP controlled the House, they hated Gene Taylor, even if he voted with them on most of the hot-bottun issues.  This is because he would often go onto the floor and shame them with their poor record on veterans' issues.
[ Parent ]
Plus
he totally unloaded on Dick Cheney. Though this isn't his brightest day Taylor has done a lot of good things for the party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
WA-6
I agree this poll seems highly dubious.  As indicated above, Dicks did get 57% in the primary, where presumably the highly motivated Tea Partiers would have more of an impact than in the general election.

That being said, I could see some potential trouble for Dicks.  This district, while it leans Democratic, isn't THAT Democratic.  Dicks really hasn't had a competitive race in decades, hasn't felt the need to run ads on tv, etc.  So, he could potentially have some difficulties. But I think the weakness of his opponent means he'll be fine. Perhaps he'll run a few percentage points below his #s from prior races, but I still see a comfortable win.

NY-19: DCCC about to go all in with NYC
broadcast ads for Hall.  That's big $$$.  A good sign, as I doubt the NRCC will match this type of investment.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

I was about to ask
if it was weird if I kept thinking of the song "Don't Stop" every time I hear of that race. Of course it was, considering that it's a Fleetwood Mac song. Then I thought I'd better check just to make sure it was Hall & Oates, which of course it isn't, because "Still the One" is a song by Orleans.

Holy shit, would my freshman year roommate be ashamed of me now!  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
WGN/Trib: Brady up by 4
43-39, Cohen 5, Whitney, 4, Green 2.

Unless Quinn grabs a couple of percent each from Cohen and Whitney, looks like Brady will win this.

http://www.chicagobreakingnews...

Like Giannoulias, I still have Quinn eeking it out by 1...
Democrat - 47%
GOP - 34%
Independent - 19%

Quinn - 84/4/39 = 47%
Brady - 11/94/48 = 46%
Other - 5/2/13 = 7%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Interesting article on the I.E. dynamics in TX-17
http://www.dallasnews.com/shar...

NRCC is pulling out of the district after spending $400K.  DCCC is going up on air at full steam ahead, fulfilling the $550K of buys they had reserved for the week before the election.

both sides spin it their way.  NRCC says they're pulling out because Flores is solidly ahead.  DCCC says NRCC is pulling out because Flores is a gaffe factory.

seems impossible to know for sure.  DCCC hasn't been shy about cutting off underperformers, so it seems like Edwards is still in it.  if he's still in it, why is the NRCC bailing?

Seems that the DCCC is going balls to the wall
in a bunch of districts. I like it.
[ Parent ]
That is a little strange.
My guess is, it's viewed by the Democrats as a relatively safe seat at best, or at worst the seat that could be lost but only in the event of a really big wave, like the loss of 17 seats. Then again, as you say, if he's still in it, why isn't the NRCC supporting Flores? And why is Crossroads GPS only throwing in a little money? It hasn't been shy about dropping a lot of money, if I remember correctly.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
TX-17
is a seat that many had written off as a Democratic loss weeks ago. It seems like many folks in the know think we can hang on. Sounds pretty encouraging.
[ Parent ]
A few days ago,
Speaker Pelosi was quoted as saying that she'd much rather be in the position Democrats are in rather than the one Republicans are in right now. I wonder what sort of information she is seeing.

Considering how badly I do when it comes to making predictions--you can ask Presidents Gore and Kerry as well presidential candidates Grey Davis, Howard Dean, and Wesley Clark for proof of this--I'm tempted to not say anything at all, but [knock on wood] hearing news like this makes me think I am not so nuts to think that the Democrats can hold the House by a slim margin. To give just one indication of how bad Edwards' chances for reelection supposedly are, Nate Silver's model says his district is 94-percent likely to flip to the Republicans. Some good news about, say, Shea-Porter, Kuster, or any of the Virginia or Pennsylvania Democrats running in tough campaigns would make me think this is even more likely.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
From your keyboard
to God's ear! :)
[ Parent ]
Sorry but Pelosi is out of touch
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

"Everything was going great and all of a sudden secret money from God knows where - because they won't disclose it - is pouring in,"

Really? Losing 2-1 independents in Virginia/New Jersey governor's race and the MA Senate special election. Doing great? Sorry that is way out of touch with what the electorate and how her caucus was doing.  

[ Parent ]
In fairness to Pelosi,
the House didn't lose a special election until Djou this spring, and those were unusual circumstances where two Dems split the vote.

Plus, it's pretty hard to deny that third-party money is having an enormous influence this cycle. She's right about that.

[ Parent ]
You are taking her comments
out of context. From what that link indicates, she's speaking out fund raising. And if memory serves me correctly, she's right. Officially, the Democrats were not usually, or never, behind in fund raising. I seem to remember several months/quarters where they were well ahead. But the picture changes dramatically when you factor in outside groups.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Pelosi is right, a lot of people didn't think the IE money would really be there because...
...these groups were slow to get started and very slow to fundraise earlier this year, long after it became publicized that they were trying.  But they managed to get their act together quickly.  They were slow because the wealthy wingnuts were blindsided by Michael Steele's incompetence and the failure of the RNC to function, which is a new problem for Republicans; they always had a strong RNC in the past that worked very well.  It just took them time to figure out how to set up an external infrastructure to make up for it.  They'd still be screwed if there wasn't such a strong anti-Democratic wave, because they don't have good GOTV but are lucking out in the form of organic GOP voter enthusiasm to make up the difference.

I think Democrats went into the summer thinking the Republicans were stuck with whatever they could scrape together.  Instead, the GOP candidates got the advantage of multiple IE groups filling in where the NRSC and NRCC could not.  This is why tracking NRCC expenditures paints an incomplete picture, since there are places they didn't go simply because they didn't have to, as outside right-wing groups got on the air with very good ads.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Right
But I do question how much they are putting into GOTV. Isn't it all being spent on ad saturation? Agree that enthusiasm makes up for it somewhat and in most cases it won't matter but you have to think they could still lose some close races because the RNC is MIA.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I think they WILL lose some from lack of GOTV, but...
...if it's the difference between our losing 55 seats or 50, that doesn't matter for us for the next Congress.

It certainly matters for 2012 that we have that many fewer seats to need to win back, but for the 112th Congress a few seats' won't matter if the GOP is at 230 or so anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I'm with you on predictions
As a general rule I don't do them, because I'm not very good at them. (Actually, I'm probably better than most, but I know too much about the uncertainty to make many).
[ Parent ]
Something crazy is going on here
As of Oct. 13 report, Flores was nearly broke.  Had $100K left on hand.

Edwards was still sitting on $1.1M!  His COH advantage was a million dollars.

NRCC is leaving the race in this state?!

[ Parent ]
Self-funder
CoH total is meaningless, when he can just add a half a mil with the stroke of a pen.
[ Parent ]
Yeah that's great
Except he doesn't seemed to have loaned himself any money in the last two weeks, and as of an article written on Saturday he was still down in COH by over a million.  Is he going to write himself a check tomorrow?  He's running out of time.
[ Parent ]
Biden Alert!! VT-GOV
Biden's coming to VT next monday for shumlin.

http://blogs.burlingtonfreepre...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Toomey's up 48-40 in today's tracking poll


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Not good
It's gone from +3 Sestak to+8 Toomey in less than a week.  Sestak continues to be under assault from an avalanche of negative ads from different quarters.  He might become the first martyr to Citizens United.
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania.
   Sestak down 5 in last night's tracking poll.  All of the crosstabs seem plausible except for the age breakdown.  Only 11% of voters under 40 is ridiculous.  In 2006 voters 18-29 made up 11% of the electorate by themselves.  So, yeah.  They also assume a D+2 electorate.  2006 had a D+5 electorate.  Not a big deal.

 One overlooked finding is that the generic ballot advantage in the tracking poll is R+3.  Not as catastrophic as earlier polls had it.

24, Male, GA-05

down 8, actually
Latest tracking just came out, and it has Toomey now up 48-40...
[ Parent ]
Linky?
   Finding this poll is so very annoying.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I'm sitting here watching MNF
And I've seen three anti-Sestak ads in the space of 10 minutes.  From Toomey, the NRSC and the Republican Jewish Committee.
[ Parent ]
Gulp
That was fun while it lasted.

I still don't quite believe Toomey will win this, but. . .

[ Parent ]
WRONGO!
http://www.mcall.com/news/loca...

Actually its Sestak 42 Toomey 47  (look at the bar on the right)

I wouldn't be too worried with these numbers.  Remember during the primary, the last Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll had Sestak and Specter tied at 44%, and the day before it had Specter leading 44-43.

Then election day came, and Sestak blew Specter out of the water 54-46.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Thats yesterdays
And in the primary, the incumbent rule applied.  
[ Parent ]
Well, you are obviously seeing something I'm not
Where is a link to this result?  And what Incumbent rule do you speak of?  That the Incumbent will always poll better then the ultimate result?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Undecideds
Break for the challenger.
Here is the only link I can find now: http://twitter.com/DCMorningCa...
[ Parent ]
That hasnt been the case for years
Most results have shown that undecideds break pretty much the way the whole electorate does.  
[ Parent ]
plus primary electorates
are usually more fluid.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
10 point fluidity is quite a bit
I still think Sestak pulls this out.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
yes, but
I think it depends on who they are.  with a primary there's no party label to fall back on (although because arlen was an R for 30 years, that wasn't necessarily true).  that means low info voters may just fall back on voting R because of the year's tilt.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I'm afraid I don't, not unless I see yet new polling that says it's STILL a dead heat after all. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen; Pretty Good Numbers from Washoe Co
Don't feel like posting much info, so here:
http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/vot...
Dems just above 40%, which is a good trend.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Total=4468, Dems=1808 GOP=2014


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
According to my calcs,
relative to the two-party vote, that's:

Dems: 48.8%
Reps: 51.20%

According to numbers provided by MinnesotaMike, cumulative two-party tallies through yesterday show:

Dems: 46.6%
Reps: 53.4%

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

So Dems had a decent day in Republican-friendly Washoe, relative to all previous days combined. Yesterday was the best day of all (as Dems scored more absolute votes), but today wasn't bad at all.

PS. I used two-party totals, because the night-by-night numbers reported at the Washoe County website doesn't show unaffiliated or third-party totals. I'm not sure where to get those.

[ Parent ]
Moveon.org representative's head stomped on by Rand Paul supporter
http://www.fox41.com/Global/st...

8 days until the election, everybody.

Ugh. This needs to be in voters minds when they vote in Kentucky
some_text

This is pathetic.  What the fuck is wrong with these people?!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
"What the fuck is wrong with these people?!"
didn't Dagny Taggart's grandfather kill a state senator in Atlas Shrugged and it was justified because he tried to impede his liberty?  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't know
I don't read the Drivel that is Ayn Rand.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
She looks so afraid.
I know what it feels like.  I was once jumped by someone when I was little.  Your mind goes blank and you fear the worse.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Just sick...
I don't get it. People just go rabid and start getting physical. Something similar happened at a Nevada campaign event, when a male Sharron Angle supporter punched a woman supporting Sen. Reid in the face when she tried to squeeze past him.

Seriously, people. Take it down a notch for America. In fact, when you're stomping on people's heads, it's time to take it down a few notches. Quite a few. And maybe spend a few months in prison and get counseling, I dunno.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
It is one of the most disturbing things
about this election. It makes me wonder what is ahead.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)
[ Parent ]
SUSA has Costa down by 10 on CA 20
With its typical questionable partisan profile.

http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/st...

Costa notes 40% of those surveyed were Republicans, while actually on 33% of the district's voters are Republicans. He also notes only 44% of those surveyed are Democrats, while 56% of the voters in the district are Democrats.

"They've over-sampled Republicans and they've under sampled Democrats and it doesn't reflect the ethnic breakdown of the district." Costa said.

52 percent of those surveyed were identified as white, while only 21 percent of the district is considered to be non-Hispanic white. 36 percent of those surveyed are Hispanic, while 63 percent of the district is Hispanic. But SurveyUSA Pollster Jay Leve defends the methodology saying Hispanic voter turnout is expected to be low. "I don't think it's likely Hispanic turnout will grow to 40% but if it does Mr. Costa definitely is the beneficiary of that.


SurveyUSA
is right. Hispanic turnout is not going to rise above 40%, or if it does it will be around 40%.

The district is 63% Hispanic. 43% Hispanic voters turn out in elections .... Why? Most of the Hispanics here are illegal or otherwise don't vote. This is the Central Valley.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Do you think
that SUSA is dreading election day?  Why do they put out polls like this?
[ Parent ]
He's in just as bad as Schrader!
Oh wait...
[ Parent ]
Their final house polls in '08 were terrible
I think they got 1 or 2 right out of 10.
[ Parent ]
Mark Kirk trailing by nine points in IL-10
Was SUSA's biggest 2008 screw-up.  I believe they also had Darcy Burner leading Dave Reichart in WA-08.
[ Parent ]
Here's their stellar performance

PA-11 Barletta 51, Kanjorski 45 (late October/November):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

OH-15 Stivers 41, Kilroy 47 (late October):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...
End result in OH-15 was razor thin.

WA-8 Reichert 46, Burner 50 (October):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

MN-3 Paulsen 43, Madia 46 (October):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

MN-6 Bachman 44, Tinkelberg 47(October):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

IL-10 Kirk 44, Seals 52 (October):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

AL-2 Love 56, Bright 39 (August):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

KS-2 Jenkins 43, Boyda 50 (August):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

FL-21 Diaz-Balart 46, Martinez 48 (August):
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...


[ Parent ]
We can give them a break for the August numbers
Not so much the top six.
[ Parent ]
Wow, that's very damning! But it also reinforces that House races are very hard to poll......
I suspect a LOT of public polling of House races is very questionable.  And sadly the RELEASED internals in House races are sometimes dishonest, without any way of knowing what are the honest ones.  It makes it very hard to figure out what's really happening in these races.

Honestly, if it wasn't for Cook and Rothenberg and others, I think we'd be totally in the dark regarding the scale of losses next Tuesday.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
This is the polling firm that Nate gives huge weight in his model
And in part the reason why his model is flawed.
[ Parent ]
Their statewide polls have a far better record. I doubt there is any weight for that. House polling is notoriously unreliable whoever does it. Remember PPP had Burns defeating Critz in May.

[ Parent ]
Oh, come on
When does the pain end?  If Costa goes, Mark could very well be right with his 93 seat gain.  
[ Parent ]
Mark's list was a bunch of crap.
He put incumbents on there who are up in polling.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Well, it wont be 93 seats, but I could now see 60
Let me try and list what I could see being lost:

1. AL-02
2. AR-01
3. AR-02
4. AZ-01
5. AZ-05
6. AZ-08
7. CO-03
8. CO-04
9. FL-02
10.FL-08
11.FL-22
12.FL-24
13.GA-02
14.GA-08
15.IL-11
16.IL-14
17.IL-17
18.IN-08
19.IN-09
20.KS-03
21.LA-03
22.MI-01
23.MI-07
24.CA-11
25.CA-20
26.NC-08
27.NY-19
28.NY-20
29.NY-23
30.NY-24
31.NY-29
32.OH-01
33.OH-06
34.OH-15
35.OH-16
36.OH-18
37.PA-03
38.PA-07
39.PA-08
40.PA-10
41.PA-11
42.SC-05
43.TX-17
44.TX-23
45.WA-03
46.VA-02
47.VA-05
48.WI-07
49.WI-08
50.MD-01
51.MA-10
52.NH-01
53.NH-03
54.NJ-03
55.OR-05
56.NM-02
57.NV-03
58.TN-04
59.TN-06
60.TN-08
61.MS-01
62.MS-04
63.ND-AL
64.SD-AL
And I could see us only picking up DE-AL and HI-01.  That would put us at just 194 seats compared to 241 for Republicans.  That isnt my prediction, but I could certainly see it happening as a worst case scenario and almost impossible to come back from in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
Not LA-2 or IL-10?

[ Parent ]
I meant LA-02 rather than HI-01
That was a mistake.  
[ Parent ]
Really?
AL-02? Bright +11 in the last poll? NY-20? Murphy up in the last poll? OR-05? Schrader up in the last poll? MI-07? I thought this was a goner but I guess Walberg is really hated here. NC-08? I'm pretty sure Kissell is going to win.

NH-03 doesn't exist btw. I think you mean NH-02.

I think we'll win some more...but I'm positive will win those.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
That's what I meant
Id add Ike Skelton to that list too.  Even if we hold AL-02, NY-20, OR-05, MI-07, and NC-08, we would be at a very weak 198 seats.  
[ Parent ]
Really...
You signed up tonight to tell us how screwed Democrats are? You were so keyed up that you just had to become a member and share your dire predictions?
[ Parent ]
What's a best case scenario for the Democrats?
You don't have to go so detailed as to give specific seat predictions, but feel free to do so. I'm more interested, however, in a general range of losses.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
I can do a best case scenario
Losses:

1. AR-02
2. AZ-01
3. CO-04
4. FL-02
5. FL-08
6. FL-24
7. IL-11
8. IN-08
9. KS-03
10.LA-03
11.MI-01
12.MD-01
13.NM-02
14.OH-01
15.OH-15
16.OH-16
17.PA-03
18.SC-05
19.TN-06
20.TN-08
21.TX-17
22.VA-02
23.VA-05
24.WA-03
25.NH-01
26.ND-AL
27.SD-AL
28.WI-07
29.WI-08
30.NY-29

Dems gain HI-01, LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10, FL-25, AZ-03, FL-12.  

Net loss of 23.  

[ Parent ]
I don't have many, if any, specific
predictions, but I'd say our best-case scenario is probably a total loss of 30 seats, even with the pick up opportunities. And while losses can always go higher, I just don't see how they get anything above 60 seats, given how unpopular they are. It's even hard to say when you think that there are several candidates who might be saved by a strong ground game and/or the coattails of other Democrats. One or two in Pennsylvania, New York, California, and Ohio could quite literally determine control of the House.

Suffice it to say that the chances of me getting anything done at all, aside from getting something to eat and maybe going to the gym, are slim to none next Tuesday.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Not long now
They're either right or not.  
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind SUSA's last poll showed Costa leading Vidak by two points and showed Hispanics making up 30% of the vote...


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Latinos
Well, their internals with respect to minority voters are notorious.  If you believe SUSA, blacks are supporting Republicans in many races in numbers not seen since the 1950s, or before the New Deal.  The same often happens with their profile of Latino voters.
[ Parent ]
That's right...
I wouldn't look at blacks though ... there's an extraordinary margin of error there...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Elaborate, please.


"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
small subample = astronomical margin of error

[ Parent ]
Oh, that's it?
I thought it might have been something more.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?
[ Parent ]
Also
Robo polling in a district with a large Latino population is rather problematic.
[ Parent ]
When his internal had him up double digits

[ Parent ]
I think contrary to popular belief
Costa has more of a chance to lose than Cardoza.

When I went up through the Central Valley in late August, I saw plenty of signs for Andy Vidak, and no operation for Costa. Yes, I know it was September...but Cardoza seemed to realize he might need to work for reelection, and signs of him were visible, though not everywhere.

In the end, I don't think either will lose.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Latinos and CA-20
I searched far and wide for some indication of how many Latinos are in CA-20's electorate. I came across this academic article.

Michelson, Melissa R.; "Does Ethnicity Trump Party? Competing Vote Cues and Latino Behavior"

http://class.csueastbay.edu/fa...

The subject of the article is an interesting examination of whether minority voters (specifically Latinos) are more loyal to candidates of their same ethnicity or more loyal to candidates of their same party.

But it uses CA-20, as it existed in 1998, as an example. This is the part of the article I am interested in.

The Dooley-Rodriguez contest was to represent California's 20th
Congressional district, which in 2000 stretched across the lower San
Joaquin Valley from Fresno to Bakersfield. It was redrawn after
1990 census to maximize the voting power of Latinos, and was estimated
to be 55% Latino. The district was also strongly Democratic;
2000, 53% of voters were registered as Democrats and 33% were registered
as Republicans. After the 1992 redistricting, the area consistently
voted Democratic in both Presidential and Congressional races (Politics
in America, 2000). In 1998, 40% of the district's registered voters were Latino.

[ Parent ]
Zogby anyone?????
New Jersey 1:
Rob Andrews 63% (D)
Dale Glading 22% (R)

New Jersey 2:
Frank LoBiondo 57% (R)
Gary Stein 20% (D)

http://www.politickernj.com/42...

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

What a waste
Why spend time polling these races.  NJ has 2, arguably 3 races worth talking about.  They are NJ 3 (Adler v. Runyan), which I rate as a toss-up, NJ-12 (Holt v. Sipprelle) which is lean democrat and NJ-6 (Pallone v. Little) which is likely democrat.  Every other incumbent in New Jersey will win comfortably, and the balance of the NJ delegation will be determined in those races.  Yes, it is possible all be it unlikely that New Jersey could send more Republicans to Congress than Democrats (I'd give it around a 5-7% chance).  Currently there are 8 Democrats and 5 Republicans, but I would say that odds are in favor of Republicans picking up one of the seats and make it 7-6 going into redistricting where NJ is almost certain to lose a seat.
[ Parent ]
Rob Andrews is like Schumer.
He can raise money and win with little effort.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I'm registered in NJ-12, so I can vote for Holt, who is better than Andrews.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
NJ-12 here as well
I filled out my mail in ballot today and am sending it tomorrow.  No vote for Rush Holt for me, I don't dislike him but I simply don't agree with him on the vast majority of things, not that I think Sipprelle is so great either he reeks of sliminess.  
[ Parent ]
College Dems are bussing us to the polls.
I like the authentic feeling of going behind those curtains and pushing the buttons much more than mailing something in.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
What did you think of Halfacre as opposed to Sipprelle?


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Halfacre
I liked Halfacre much more than Sipprelle.  Halfacre to me had better credentials and upside as Fair Haven's mayor compared to Sipprelle's business background.  There is also something about Sipprelle that rubs me the wrong way.  The problem Halfacre had was money, Sipprelle was willing to self-fund and that was enough.  I would have personally rather seen Halfacre on the ticket, and have no doubt that if he stayed in the primary he would have defeated Sipprelle.  How Halfacre would have matched up in the general against Holt is tough to say, but I think it would have been a pretty competitive race.
[ Parent ]
Woman Assaulted Outside of Paul-Conway Debate
IOIYAR, right?

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."

already commented on this upthread
http://swingstateproject.com/s...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Clark County Early Voting Strikes New High!
20,430 voted there today, shattering their previous record of 17,810.
http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Now if only that turnout is in all of the right areas. atdleft could tell me based on the chart.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Well hot damn!!!
Hopefully, the D/R ratio looks good, but at the very least that should pad our absolute vote margin.

Looking forward to seeing the breakdowns tomorrow.

PS. Whatever happens to Harry (and I think he's got a great shot), Titus should benefit considerably from his turnout machine. I bet she's essentially already won, which would help explain why the RCCC has pulled out.

[ Parent ]
VA-05: Perriello's "24 Hours of Tom" district-wide campaign marathon ended almost 2 hours ago.
Here's where he went:
http://www.perrielloforcongres...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
Wow...
I just watched a bunch of those videos of his 24-hour campaign blitz. He's amazing. One of them showed Tom informing his barber about the changes that will be coming with health care reform. He's so REAL in describing it, nothing phony. It's obvious he really cares how these changes will affect people's lives. I'm impressed.
[ Parent ]
that district is so difficult and with lower AA turnout he is going to
need to pull something out of his hat. I wish he could swap with someone once who doesn't have to do anything to keep their seat. It really sucks he may go down.  
[ Parent ]
One of the interesting things
is that both parties are still playing strong in the district, which suggest that the Republicans don't think they've put it away and the Dems don't think it's out of reach. In fact, the DCCC more than doubled its expenditures there to $230 last week, exceeding the RCCC for the time in a while.

H/T to spiderdem for his very comprehensive report:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Since there are no statewide races, there's an outside chance, I'm hoping, that Perriello can use superior ground work to match the enthusiasm on the other side.

Even if he loses, I'm so impressed by how he's conducting the race: honestly, unapologetically, and yet with respect for people with different views. He's inspiring, frankly.

[ Parent ]
There is always 2012!


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Q: Blumenthall up 12, Kasich 6
CT-Gov
The undecided voters are Dems so should be fine. Quinnipiac has constantly had some of the worst numbers in Ohio but I still expect Kasich to win.
[ Parent ]
Webster 48 Grayson 41
Given the Republican leanings of the pollster, I'm surprised it's this close.

http://www.sunshinestatenews.c...

It's not the Republican year as much as it is Grayson's idiocy.


28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Well it's actually both, which is why 7 points is surprisingly close......
I would expect Grayson to lose by double-digits.  He pissed away his money on the stupidest possible ads, including some that just completely backfire.

Grayson actually had the resources and, believe it or not, a profile to fire up his base and vaporize his opponent.  But what we've learned is he doesn't actually have the political skills necessary to win a tough race.  The wave carried Grayson into office and another wave will carry him back out to sea.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Oh great
http://www.tampabay.com/news/s...

Fine, go ahead and elect the crook. Florida you get what you deserve.

Not
that big of deal at all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not usually
But since she seemed to flub the whole thing I'm less hopeful than I've been all year.
[ Parent ]
I
doubt this gets much coverage though. Seems like a non story to non junkies.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
It's getting breathless coverage in
the local media.  It's exactly the kind of idiocy the modern media latches on to like a pit bull and refuses to let go.  To minimize it deeply understimates the stupidity and sophomoric nature of the media.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I can't comment on the local TV coverage
but reading the press clippings on the debate, they seem more favorable to Sink.  I said up-thread Scott came off like a bully, which is a dangerous thing to do with a woman candidate and that seemed to be the story line in the brief national coverage I've seen of the debate.
[ Parent ]
Polls IN-2, IN-7
Jackie's internals are accurate. Donnelly leads by 5 points, 48-43. Three weeks ago he led 48-39. I don't remember seeing that poll, I can't believe it wasn't reported on SSP. 5 points a week before the election means a narrow win I think.

Carson leads 50 to 37. Three weeks ago he lead 50-33, I don' t remember seeing that poll either.

http://indiana.onpolitix.com/n...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

What did her internals say?

[ Parent ]
It
was in the digest yesterday. Someone claimed they previously had her down nine but now have her down to four, within the margin of error. This basically corroborates that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe they meant this poll

[ Parent ]
No
they were talking about her internals. This is a five point Donnelly lead, not a four.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
So it is
I was concentrating on the 9. Obviously she doesn't use POS.
[ Parent ]
Well
she didn't publicly release anything mind you. It was just some party chairman that let mention of it to a reporter. Maybe they got wind of the results of this poll and had some numbers leaked to make it sound a tad closer than it is. But if they did that why 4, they could have gotten away with 3 or maybe even lower. Or maybe they were told it was higher than 5. Gosh, look at me floating conspiracy theories.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Donelley up by 5, Carson by 13
4 points in three weeks
4 points in one and she still loses. Closer than we would like but could be worse.
[ Parent ]
That's
what I'm thinking. It will be close but Donnelly should win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
FL-GOV: Completely unscientific and useless, but interesting.
Our local cable news station, Bay News 9, ran an unscientific internet snap poll asking who won the debate.  I voted for Rick Scott and expected to see a lopsided result for him.  To my surprise, it was actually 59-41 for Sink.  Probably says more about the demographics of the self-selected sample of users of Bay News 9's web-site than anything.  But maybe my perception of a disaster for Sink is wrong.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Malloy 49-46 according to Ras
SSP Daily Digest: 10/25 (Afternoon Edition) | 261 comments

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