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SSP Daily Digest: 4/20

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 20, 2011 at 8:12 AM EDT


Senate:

HI-Sen: Very slow fundraising quarters from Reps. Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa, despite Dan Akaka's retirement announcement on March 2. Hirono raised around $100K and has $291K on hand, while Hanabusa took in a mere $33K and has only $72K in the bank.

More interestingly, despite Ed Case's attempts at rapprochement, Sen. Dan Inouye still has hard feelings about Case's primary challenge to Akaka in 2006 - and he didn't hesitate to say so in a recent interview. He all but said that Case lied to his face when he asked him lo those many years ago if he'd run against Akaka, and then added a few remarks that made it sounds like Case had definitely not succeeded in making amends. So unless Inouye is playing some weirdly deep game here, then it looks like my fears that he'd subtly back Case seem unfounded. Good.

KY-Sen: I don't know if I care about this, or whether it even matters, but glibertarian maniac Rand Paul filed for re-election yesterday. I guess this means he thinks the United States won't collapse into anarchy by 2016, but he's probably still hoarding kruggerands (and toilet paper) just to be on the safe side.

MN-Sen: It's sort of easy to forget that Amy Klobuchar is up for re-election this cycle. Dedicated and hard-working, she doesn't showboat and is a consummate team player. The fact that she crushed in her debut campaign with 58% of the vote and no Republican opponents loom even in the distant horizon definitely have the effect of putting this race on the mental back burner. But true to form, she's taking her campaign very seriously, raising $1 million in Q1 and holding on to $2.5 mil in the bank.

NJ-Sen: Is Republican biotech millionaire John Crowley thinking about a Senate bid - again? Roll Call notes that Crowley is stepping down as CEO of his pharma company, which could be a sign he's interested in taking on Sen. Bob Menendez. But for some reason, the article fails to point out that Crowley was heavily recruited to run against Sen. Frank Lautenberg in 2008, and backed out at the last moment - twice. He was also talked about for a gubernatorial run in 2009 (which he obviously didn't pull the trigger on). So we'll see if he has the fire in the belly to actually do something this time.

TX-Sen: Did you know that there's already a declared Democrat in the race? I didn't, but Some Dude Sean Hubbard is apparently running.

WA-Sen: Sen. Maria Cantwell raised $1.2 million in Q1 and has about the same amount in the bank.

Gubernatorial:

KY-Gov: Gov. Steve Beshear raised an impressive $1.3 million in the first three months of the year and has $3.3 million on hand.

WV-Gov: Treasurer John Perdue is up what I think is the first negative ad of the Dem primary. He principally after Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin for taking money from utility companies who have charged jacked-up prices, accusing him (and also Natalie Tennant and Rick Thompson) of being "in the pocket" of the big energy firms. Using smokestacks as negative imagery in a state like West Virginia is certainly an unusual choice, given how many people there rely on "smokestack industries" for their livelihoods. But I guess whoever wins this multi-way primary is expecting to do so with only a relatively small plurality.

House:

AZ-06: We previously mentioned that Republican ex-Rep. Matt Salmon was thinking about a bid to reclaim his old House seat, with Jeff Flake running for Senate, and now he's made it official. Salmon, a member of the GOP's class of '94, honored a term-limit pledge and declined to run for re-election in 2000. However, he did run and lose against Janet Napolitano in the governor's race in 2002.

FL-14: This seems unexpected: Chauncey Goss, son of former Congressman and CIA Director Porter Goss, says he's thinking about challenging Rep. Connie Mack in the Republican primary. Goss acknowledges that such a fight would be an "uphill battle," but also suggests that he could wind up running in an open seat. It sounds like he thinks that a new seat could be drawn by splitting Lee County (currently the bulk of the 14th CD), but I still wonder if Mack might wind up retiring. (By the way, the current 14th was in fact the elder Goss's seat before he was tapped to run the CIA in 2004.)

IA-04: Ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack told a gathering of state Senate Dems that they should "stay tuned" regarding his wife's political ambitions. That sounds to me like Christie Vilsack is very much leaning toward a run against Republican nutter Steve King. Tom also promised the race would be a "holy war," a phrase which I sure as hell hope he a) doesn't repeat for public consumption and b) means that Christie plans on seriously taking King the woodshed.

MI-11, MI-Sen (?): The AP canvassed all 15 House incumbents in Michigan, and all but one confirmed they were seeking re-election. The holdout? 11th CD Republican Thad McCotter, who is in his fifth term. I've hesitantly flagged this item as MI-Sen as well, since it's possible that McCotter is hedging because he's thinking about challenging Sen. Debbie Stabenow, though he hasn't really been talked about much.

NM-01: Dem state Sen. Tim Keller, only 33 years old, says he won't seek Rep. Martin Heinrich's open House seat but will instead seek re-election next year.

NY-10: Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, who hasn't ruled out a primary challenge to Rep. Ed Towns, says in a new interview that he wants the chance to serve alongside Barack Obama. So that means he's either a) gotta run next year b) run in 2014 or c) get the Constitution amended.

Other Races:

IN-SoS: It looks like Republicans have found a pretty simple way out of the Charlie White mess: change the law. If White, the Republican Secretary of State who is currently under indictment, gets removed from office, the next-highest vote-getter in the last election, Democrat Vop Osili, would take his place. But a bill moving through the state lege would give the governor the power to appoint a replacement instead. (It also would let the GOP avoid any related fallout from having recorded zero valid votes in the SoS contest, a race to which many other electoral perks are tied.)  Sucky for Dems, but whatcha gonna do.

NJ-St. Sen.: Republicans are challenging Olympian Carl Lewis's residency status, trying to get him thrown off the ballot. Lewis says he's owned homes in New Jersey since 2005, but has voted and paid taxes in California until last year. The Secretary of State will rule by Thursday, but that decision can be appealed.

Philly Mayor: This is definitely unusual. Former Mayor John Street just changed his party registration from "Democrat" to "independent," which could allow him to challenge Mayor Michael Nutter for his old job, something Street refused to rule out. Also unexpectedly, Street's wacky ex-con brother Milton, who is in fact running against Nutter in the Dem primary, got three big union endorsements last week. Seems impossible to imagine him winning next month, though, no?

WI Recall: As expected, petitions were filed against Sheila Harsdorf yesterday, making her the fourth Republican state Senator to achieve this dubious status. And in more good news, state Rep. Fred Clark is planning an announcement for Thursday, very likely to declare a run against Luther Olsen, against whom petitions were filed on Monday. On the flipside, Republicans say they will file signatures in three Dem-held districts this week, but time is running out for them: Their deadlines are mostly April 25 & 26 (ours aren't due until May 2).

Grab Bag:

DCCC: I'm getting kind of tired of these "DCCC launches campaign against 25 Republicans" (and the mirror images from the NRCC), mostly because I think the amounts being spent are quite small, but anyway, here's another one, this time about Medicare.

Passings: William Donald Schaefer, the iconic four-term Democratic mayor of Baltimore and two-term governor of Maryland, died on Monday at the age of 89. The Baltimore Sun has wall-to-wall coverage of Schaefer's passing, whose legendary career is hard to summarize, but you can start with the obituary at the first link.

Redistricting Roundup:

California: Newspaper editorial pages are usually filled with some of the worst goo-goo anti-gerrymandering handwringing, so I found this op-ed by George Skelton in the LA Times to be particularly delightful. Skelton wryly observes that California Dems can't get a tax deal done with Republicans because a key tool in their arsenal - offering to draw recalcitrant legislators good districts, and threatening them with bad ones - has been taken out of their hands. In other words, like a lot of California's supposedly well-meaning ballot initiatives, the independent redistricting commission is also having some unintended consequences. In the end, Skelton seems to come down on the side of the commission anyway, but I think he's right: When you limit legislators' ability to legislate, you limit their ability to do good things as well as bad.

Iowa: We're done: Iowa is now the third state to complete a new congressional map, with Gov. Terry Brandstad signing off on the plans yesterday. At the bottom of the linked article, you'll also find a list of all state House and Senate incumbents who have been thrown together in the same district.

Missouri: Some interesting backstory on the Dem side of redistricting in Missouri. Apparently, things got nasty between Russ Carnahan and Lacy Clay just a couple of weeks ago: Carnahan asked Clay (and Emmanuel Cleaver, MO's other Dem member of the House) to help him ask Gov. Jay Nixon to veto the state legislature's new maps which throw Clay and Carnahan into one district together. (The seat would be heavily black, which would favor Clay.) Clay refused, leading to a heated moment on the House floor, but now apparently Carnahan has agreed not to run against him in a primary. Instead, Carnahan is supposedly being pushed toward a run in what would become the new 3rd CD, which at present is largely Todd Akin's district. That seat could open up if Akin runs for Senate, which I'd currently say is more likely than not.

Republicans, however, have not made any peace agreements and in fact appear to be in meltdown mode. Yesterday we mentioned that Republican leaders and congressmembers were gathering to discuss the impasse between competing maps, a meeting which reportedly became "acrimonious." I'll let Jo Mannies and Jason Rosenbaum of the St. Louis Beacon summarize the key points of contention:

The Republican members of Congress generally want the Senate to drop consideration of its map and take up the map already passed by the Missouri House. But Senate leaders dislike some of the House's proposed boundaries. They also say they don't have the votes for a veto-proof majority of the House map.

I strongly suggest reading the entire Beacon article if you're interested in this topic - it's definitely one of the sharper tradmed pieces I've seen on redistricting in general this year. In any event, Republicans want a shot at over-riding a possible Nixon veto before the current legislative session ends on May 13, so time is running short here.

New Jersey: With the Garden State losing a seat this decade, Aaron Blake runs through five different scenarios involving various incumbent-vs-incumbent matchups.

Oklahoma: Yesterday, the state House unanimously passed a new congressional map (which makes very minimal changes to the existing district lines). Given that all five members of Congress have signed off on the plan, I'd be surprised if it doesn't breeze through the Senate as well - but we've already had more than our share of redistricting surprises this cycle, so I've stopped calling my bookie.

Virginia: A committee in the Republican-held House made some minor tweaks to their map, which Gov. Bob McDonnell had previously vetoed. I'm sure this is just cosmetic b.s., because McDonnell really only cares about the Dem map that the Senate produced. In McDonnell's world, the first is a work of unparalleled bipartisanshippy beauty, while the second is a hideous Demmycrat gerrymander FROM HELL. That's fookin' politics for ya.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/20
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Holt v. Lance would be epic, and a bit of a shame
Holt is one of my favorite members of Congress, and I don't want to see him put in a really difficult seat. That said, he deserves our support if he's in a tough spot.  

Holt
In an even, fair fight, district, Holt would beat Lance.  Holt's won in Republican-leaning districts before, so an even one would be his for the taking.  Plus, Lance is not that strong an opponent.  

[ Parent ]
Lance looks pretty strong to me
Considering he won an open seat in 2008 while Obama was carrying his district.

[ Parent ]
Lance
He got 51% in '08, and only 56% last year.  His district is more Republican than the PVI would lead you to believe.  And Holt has a higher profile and is a better campaigner.  

[ Parent ]
Lance, for whatever reason, is liked by the machine Democrats
I'm not really sure how they'd feel in a Lance vs. Holt matchup, given that Holt has never been beholden to them.

[ Parent ]
...
So in three states its officially finished:

Arkansas 1-2-1
Iowa 2-1-1
Louisiana 1-5-0

In three others its all done except the yelling:

Indiana 2-6-1
Missouri 2-5-1
Oklahoma 1-4-0

Total so far:

9-23-4

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


Which are you counting
As a swing district in Indiana? In Missouri?  

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
Donnelly
Donnelly's district in Indiana.
Akin/Carnahan in Missouri.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I think it's a serious mistake
not to consider IN-08 as a swing district as well.

[ Parent ]
...
Then keep your own list and post it whenever another state settles on its map. I'm going to be posting this list every single Daily Digest where a state has finalized its maps.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I'm just saying
Not considering IN-08 a swing district is just a bit ignorant, both of it's Presidential leanings, it's local leanings, and its entire modern political history and the weakness of Buschon. I'm suggesting a correction in your calculus. Any good candidate could beat him in a neutral to positive year and likely hold onto it.

I don't think a Republican candidate in this district has gotten more than 55% in the last 50 years.  


[ Parent ]
.
I'm sorry.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I wasn't trying to attack you
I think such a list is good; I was only trying to make a correction to improve it.  

[ Parent ]
Again
Your tone is similarly snappy to yesterday's moo cow commentary.  Don't post something on a public blog and then be rude when people comment it.  The miss could say "start your own blog" to every poster who disagreed with them but they don't.  Try following their lead.

[ Parent ]
.
I really don't mean to come off that way! I'm sorry.

I'll change it... Multiple people have now excoriated me for having it be Republican, so I guess they might as well be right.

20-29-11.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Yeah
As RDW says, your tone is really mis-placed. I think you owe jwaalk an apology.

[ Parent ]
I have a hard time...
Seeing either of these as swing districts. I think both favor Republicans fairly strongly; Republican drew them specifically to take out Democrats. Granted, Donnelly and Carnahan would be very strong if they ran, but Carnahan would have to run against the incumbent Akin, and Donnelly's district was redrawn specifically to take him out, so he may choose to run statewide instead, leaving an open seat.  

[ Parent ]
But they could have done far worse to Donnelly
He would have lost it in 2010, but I'd say he could win it in 2012.  The IN GOP could have made his seat next to impossible for him to win, but instead just made it difficult for him to win.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I don't think you are necessarily right about MO
I think there's a non-zero chance that the GOP can't over-ride Nixon's veto, can't come up with a compromise, and courts draw the maps. They are probably smart enough to avoid this scenario, but they've reached their current impasse for ridiculous parochial reasons. (I mean, why can't the House plan pass in the Senate? There are no legitimate reasons.) So I'm not going to put anything past them.

[ Parent ]
.
I think they'll move past it.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
If they fail
Remind me what happens in MO if they can't put together a plan this session?

From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

[ Parent ]
Non-zero?
Is there a negative % chance of passage?  Perhaps in the same alternate universe where a strong Dem Challenger to Bob Corker has emerged?  lol.

[ Parent ]
Heheh
I think in that universe, the chance of MO botching their map is i. :)

[ Parent ]
At-Large
When you divy up the at-large districts the tally moves to:

Alaska - Republican
Delaware - Democratic
Montana - Toss-Up
North Dakota - Toss-Up
South Dakota - Toss-Up
Wyoming - Republican
Vermont - Democratic

11-25-7

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Unchangeable
When you add the small states whose districts are pretty much unchangeable due to internal population distribution and partisan tendencies:

Hawaii 2-0-0
Idaho 2-0-0
Maine 2-0-0
Mississippi 1-3-0
Nebraska 0-2-1
New Hampshire 0-0-2
Rhode Island 2-0-0

Total 20-30-10

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Nebraska won't have a swing district
After the GOP makes the 2nd more Republican. Even as it stands now I would hardly call it a swing district.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
.
As it stands now its a swing district in Presidential years. I'm also not sure they can make it any more Republican than it is now. I'm standing by my breakdown.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
.
I've changed my mind. I think you're right on this one.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
As commented above
I really didn't mean to attack your list, and if I offended you I'm sorry, I am just trying to hatch out opinions and ideas as to where we stand in terms of redistricting.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem

[ Parent ]
Nah
The list will be better with input from the community. Whenever we get news on every state I'll repost the list and everyone should chime in with estimates/opinions.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Did you mean to count Idaho as 2 Democratic seats?
or maybe I am misreading that.

[ Parent ]
WOW!
Good catch. No, I meant that as two Republican districts. I'm also moving the swing seat in Nebraska to be Republican. Which moves the count to:

18-32-10.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
I like the idea of a count
And I think it's smart to be liberal about designating swing districts versus GOP or Dem ones in this type of generalization.

[ Parent ]
I too like the idea of a count
I just don't want us to become overly optimistic based on our partisan leanings. I have become somewhat disillusioned over the past few weeks reading SSP and RRH watching each side become more partisan and overly optimistic about each sides chances.

I have a ton of respect for the moderators of both sites, but I am unhappy seeing more and more snarky comments thrown in that are too overly partisan. Don't get me wrong, humor in the right places can be fantastic, but things like theProsser=Walker headline on the front page of RRH has made me even more nervous about the move to DKos.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem


[ Parent ]
I like the idea of a count too


20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
I like the idea of a count too
I hear that in the 1704 presidential election, Dracula had recently been defeated, so his proxy Frankenstein was defeated in the general election by Mummy by an electoral college vote of 294 to 244.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
How many electoral votes does Nevada have next year?
One, two, three, four, five, six! Six electoral votes! Ahahaha!

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov: Q-poll: Christie job approval falling and now sub-50 & dead even, & fares poorly vs. Obama......
Christie's job approval down to 47-46, i.e., down to break-even.

Obama's at 51-45 in New Jersey, clearly better than Christie.

And New Jersey voters favor Obama over Christie for President by a big 52-39.

Link:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Oooh, and more good stuff on Christie in this poll......
One fun and informative question they threw in was a completely open-ended one asking people what one word they would use to describe Christie.  No choices, just say whatever word comes to mind.

Out of 1532 registered voters, 141 said "bully" and 41 said "arrogant."  I counted manually and found 110 other responses that were clearly pejorative, for a total of 361 perjorative choices.

Meanwhile, the top positive choice was "good" with 41 responses, tied for 2nd with "arrogant."  In all I counted 362 responses that used what struck me as positive words, just one more than the total number of pejoratives.

So even the open-ended "pick a word" question demonstrated a dead-even split in the electorate, same as the topline.

And in case you're wondering, 83 respondents declined to pick a word, and the rest came up with words that struck me as either clearly neutral, or a mixed bag/reflection of ambivalence.  Of course, those unclear word choices totaled about one-half the total sample, indicating that high percentages of approvers and disapprovers don't feel a lot of intensity in their opinions.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
And I thought "bully" and "arrogant' played well
in metro NYC. Perhaps his style is even too much there.

(I'm sorry, that is my personal bias about people from that part of the northeast is showing.)


[ Parent ]
No
They don't. Spitzer suffered for that reputation, Bloomberg is (at last) suffering for that reputation, and now Christie is as well.

[ Parent ]
I think the danger
is when you pass from being a "fighter" to being a bully. The difference? I think it all depends on whether you're seen to be fighting effectively for popular policies. "Fighting" to, e.g., cut Medicaid, isn't going to win you many friends.  

[ Parent ]
To me
A bully pushes around those who are weaker than him (eg Christie and teachers/seniors/the poor) and a fighter goes against "the system"/"the powers that be" (corporations/party bosses/etc).  

21, Dem, NY-15 (formerly NJ-05)

[ Parent ]
It is
or it's becoming.  People like Koch and Guliani had their arrogant, nasty, bully moments.  But if you're a bully all the time, a lot of people start getting tired of the act.  This is what may be happening with Christie.

[ Parent ]
And if you go the the bottom of the poll
Dems have a 47/39 generic ballot lead for the state legislature.

[ Parent ]
NJ-2011
If there's a time and a place for Dems to make a statement, its NJ-2011.  Many in the national media see Christie as some sort of star, but I think these elections will prove Dem power in NJ and reduce Christie to a reduced impact.

For once I hope I'm right :-)


[ Parent ]
Christie was always a paper tiger who could never wear well......
I just shake my head at Republican cluelessness about the guy's "star power."  He's just an asshole, and Republicans like assholes, but most people don't and Republicans don't get that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Exactly
The only reasons he won were because of Corzine's unpopularity and because of the national atmosphere (though still not yet as bad as what would happen in 2010).  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Daggett
I guess there is an argument to be made about Chris Daggett as well, but - personally - I think his vote would probably have been split more or less equally between Corzine and Christie.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Dead on
I would add that women especially do not like assholes.  Obama is killing Christie amongst the women.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Franken was viewed as an asshole
and there was a whole roll-out of Republican women against him.  It didn't affect his numbers per CNN exit polls with women.  But that's just one example more.  One other fun fact I learned; the only age group Franken won was the 18-29 if we go by the actual numbers as biblical (which we shouldn't because there are margins of error.  But it's pretty interesting, especially since he won by less than 300 votes.  His election was made possible by the UofM, thanks out-of-staters!

[ Parent ]
This
Is why republicans in states across the country are working as hard as they can to disenfranchise college students. (Boo his in the general direction of my state's current Governor and legislature).

[ Parent ]
it wasn't about Franken being an asshole,
he's not. he's a smartass at times though, and the women backlash against him was about his (satirical) letter to Playboy 15-odd years ago.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I don't know dude
Al Franken was more of a sarcastic smart-ass as opposed to an asshole.  In addition, Franken had never been in office before so there was really no basis as a public servant as being an asshole.

Since his election, I think that most women would not view Franken as an asshole, much less than what women would view Christie, for sure.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Straight single men of SSP (all 2 of you), take note


21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I knew his bloom would fade...
It was just a matter of how soon. Perhaps the RNC will still pursue Fool's Gold and try to make Chris Christie a "national sensation", but clearly it won't flip New Jersey, and it probably won't flip any other blue states either.

And apparently, Christie's "tough guy" image just comes off as "bully" to most women. Wow, that gender gap is HUGE!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
As far as the presidential race, this is probably Likely D
At a minimum, Obama should win here by high single-digits. Against a Huckabee or Gingrich type, probably by at least 13. Christie's numbers aren't hot at all and it's stuff like this that may send some withholding donors veering into the Romney camp. If Christie can't carry his home state, there's no point in dragging him into the 2012 battle.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Philly Mayor
Please god let the Street family lose and take their 3-ring circus to another city, no, another state, no, another country.  Please.

I have no idea what these unions are doing endorsing street.  I'm sure they benefited more under John Street because he was corrupt and served during an economy when things were going better and no one cared about deficits at any level of government, but I have no idea why they'd endorse his convict brother.

On the plus side, the election isn't that low turnout and union votes are not a 1000% uniform voting block anywhere (as we all know from, most notably, the 2004 Federal elections).  I'd imagine we'll see about 300K votes in the general and about 80+% of that will be non-Republican, so I think Nutter is not true danger.


At least I can't imagine how former Mayor Street could win as an independent
Mayor Street's brother's challenge in the primary is -- union endorsements notwithstanding -- still a joke carrying no chance of success. Although Nutter could get embarassed -- perhaps by narrowly losing the predominately African-American wards and winning with perhaps something like 60%-65% it's pretty hard to imagine him actually losing the Primary.

I can't imagine why Mayor Street himself would try to take on Nutter in the general as an independent rather than in the Democratic Primary. Former Mayor Street would get virtually zero non-black support running as an Independent against Nutter. While he could win a Democratic Primary while getting virtually zero non-black support, the general election electorate in Philadelphia is probably about 50-50 black vs. white + others.

Moreover, I really don't think Street would get the kind of universal support among black voters he would need to have a chance. The Democratic machine would at best be neutral and would likely back Nutter as the Democratic nominee running in the general. Although Nutter isn't particularly popular with the African-American community and he could very well lose the black vote by a not insignificant margin in the general, the support, or at least lack of opposition from the machine, plus Street's checkered ethical history will probably lead to Nutter at least getting the 20% to 30% of the African-American vote to ensure that he would comfortably come out on top.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
Nutter's appeal
Has always been that he's probably the strongest AA candidate with appeal to whites that Philly's had in a while.  And I have no reason to think that he couldn't get a decent amount of blacks.

But racial politics aside, the guy isn't actually a bad mayor.  Sure I wish the city had a better busienss climate (even though PA unemployment sustained me for a bit in 2010 I'd rather have a job Mr Corbett).  I wish we didn't have to close down fire houses and other cuts.

But to me Nutter stands above pretty much all other current Philly politicians.  Considering the uber-corrupt city council (with 5 councilmen not seeking re-election) and the DROP scandal.  Street and the rest of the PHA Board and its disgraced former head.  Nutter is flipping squeky clean in comparison to the rest.


[ Parent ]
PA Legislative redistricting
It looks like the fix is in, because the state Supreme Court appointed a Republican tiebreaker.

Well at least there's not mucht hey can do
With regards to the PA state Senate.  I mean look at this map, I'm not sure there's anything more they could gain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F...


[ Parent ]
It's just amazing
That the State Senate stayed immutably 30-20 in 2008 and 2010.

25, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

[ Parent ]
Actually, Democrats lost a seat in 2008, if you can believe it
Before 2008 it was 29-21, after it was 30-20.

[ Parent ]
we knew that was going to happen
That's why the Orie Melvin/Panella race mattered so much in 2009.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen 2014: Dittman poll: Begich surprisingly strong......
No link to the poll itself, but numbers revealed by Dave Catanese here:  http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Bottom line for Begich:  a sparking 57-33 job approval.  I never would've guessed that.  Granted this is predictably less good than Don Young's 63-32, or Lisa Murkowski's 71-27.  But 57-33 in Alaska for a Democrat who voted for health care reform, the stimulus, and everything else Democrats pushed the past couple years?  Wow, I'm thrilled.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


Hopefully we'll see numbers for a Parnell-Begich matchup
The article suggests that the rest of Dittman's numbers will be released in a day or two.

[ Parent ]
Hmmmm
Does Murkowski support Parnell against Begich?  He wasn;t the worst person to her during the Senate election but he was right up there....

[ Parent ]
I think he'd be fine
Incumbents generally don't lose in Alaska, from what I understand. They love their pork

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Begich = Baller
I watch the Senate floor all day, and few people are as good advocates for their state as Begich. He has a strong business background that he uses extremely well in speeches and hearings to advocate for public investments that will benefit Alaska...I wish half the Dems in our caucus could message like him.

Plus, is there anyone more valuable to the caucus than Begich? The man's taken some gutsy votes considering his state.    


[ Parent ]
Wow.
I wish other Democrats of his class (Kagan, etc.) had similar approvals.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Eh.
I'm no fan of Kagan. She's an improvement over Liddy Dole, but still too much of a flip-flopper. I recognize that she has a difficult task politically representing an ancestrally red purple state, but the way she's handled it hasn't been the greatest.  

I'd say Kagan and Al Franken are the two likeliest freshman casualties of the 2014 cycle, though Merkley and Mark Udall are also worth keeping an eye on.

Ah well, 2014's a ways off still. Lots can change.  


[ Parent ]
Nope, I think Begich is still very vulnerable, despite these approval numbers
He's too liberal for the state. He's kept a low profile, so I question how many voters really know about how liberal he is. I'm still pretty confident Obama will win in 2012, and that should mean Republicans have the advantage in the off-year election. Approval ratings mean nothing for 2014 at this point.

I agree Kagan is probably as vulnerable, but I think Franken might be in better shape than either Begich or Kagan, just because Minnesota generally skews liberal, and Franken has been a pretty workhorse Senator.  


[ Parent ]
y'all mean Kay Hagen?
Don't know Senator Kagen.

[ Parent ]
I was wondering when Kagen became the
Senator from North Carolina. I like Hagen. I certainly hope her fate isn't tied to Perdue's.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Both have performed well
in the Tornado disaster.  I believe also PPP has some improving numbers for both - with Hagan above water on approvals for the first time and Perdue getting better marks vs. the GOP legislature.  SurveyUSA still had Bev losing to McCrory but we'll see what happens after the dust settles here.

I'm very proud of Hagan and I'm starting to be more hopeful than I was.  She's very visible around the state and hasn't been a loudmouth in Washington.  This could all bode well for her unlike the last Democrat senator we had :(

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11


[ Parent ]
Ditto
Kay's probably the best US Senator we've had in NC in my 40 years.  After suffering 30 years of Helms and 6 years of Dole, along with freaks like Faircloth, and strong conservatives like Burr and East, she's much better.  I like her better than Edwards and Sanford, although Sanford did a good job for 6 years.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Perdue
Didn't she get bad press for being in KY at the horse races and then staying to meet Beshear-after the tornadoes had happened-and not coming home until late Saturday night?  

[ Parent ]
That's what I heard too.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Wrong!!!
Her PR team screwed it up.  She's a UKY alum and had a weekend planned with her old roommates.  She went to the early horse races but came back before the other ones started due to the nature of the storms.  She even flew commercial and paid her own way!  Her scheduled showed her plans beforehand she has never lied herself about where she was or what she was doing - there were even witnesses from the press.  She needs to get rid of her PR person but she won't due to personal loyalty.  

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

[ Parent ]
It's an interesting story
After Steve Kagen lost to Reid Ribble in WI-08, he moved to North Carolina.  Kay Hagan took pity on him, and cooked up a deal with Bev Perdue where Hagan would resign from the Senate and Perdue would appoint Kagen in her place.  Thus we got Sen. Kagen in place of Sen. Hagan.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
I would have figured it would have been Elana Kagan
Maybe in DavidNYC's alternate universe where Bredesen announced against Corker there's a Justice Kay Hagan who gets referred to as Justice Kagan.

NC-06/NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well, it's not TOO farfetched
NC is a better place to live than the Midwest. Right Dan Coats?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yes
Thank you! This remembers me the other day when everyone else was misspelling Bredesen as Bresden or Bredsen.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I thought I had missed a
Pon Raul reference....

[ Parent ]
.
I should have played it off as such.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Me too...
How embarassing!  

[ Parent ]
You forgot about someone who talked about the Raulbots
and gauging the support for Pand Raul.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Agree
I think Franken will surprise. Not sure I buy these Begich numbers. PPP had him quite severely underwater late last year.

[ Parent ]
See my comment down further, Dittman (this pollster) was better than PPP last October......
Dittman nailed Murkowski's win and was the only late pollster to do so.  PPP like others wrongly had Miller winning.

And honestly, even if Dittman is off by some, he'd have to be off by a lot for Begich to be anything close to underwater.

I suspect in Alaska like elsewhere the midterms were the big outlet for anti-Democratic anger, and people have calmed down and are giving Democrats more of a benefit of doubt than last year.

Speaking of Alaska, SSP short-timer JimAK had to be crushed, he commented here with great swagger for a couple months that Miller would win going way, McAdams and Murkowski had no chance.  He commented in desperation a couple times immediately post-election that Miller still could win, but then disappeared altogether.

No reason for bringing him up, except that he crossed my mind just now for the first time in a long time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Good Memory
I remember him.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
He was right...
partially at least...McAdams had no chance :-)

[ Parent ]
McAdams
I think McAdams might be a viable candidate in the future. Most polls showed that voters viewed him positively, but that they believed he wasn't really yet for such a big job.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
.
Ready*

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Consider the comparison though
Look at the crop of Alaska pols people were looking at in 2010.

Palin - ugh
Miller - eek
Murkoski - somewhat liked, lingering nepotism tinge though (most seem to have gotten over it)
Young - corrupt but we'll deal with it
Parnell - meh to blah
McAdams - new and not polarizing

It'd be rough going for him to win statewide, Begich really had a tremendous effort to win.  Tony Knowles was able to springborad from a bigger post (moyor of Anchorage) to governor.  

To me McAdams might end up being the next Ethan Berkowitz, the Dem's best candidate but unlikely to win without help from GOP scandal/turmoil.


[ Parent ]
.
Methinks he'll run for State Senate or State House, sit tight for awhile, and then make another statewide run in a Dem year against Young.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Or better yet, wait for Young to retire
McAdams is a lot younger. He can afford to wait.

[ Parent ]
IDK
I think Young might actually be easier to take out than winning an open seat, but that still might be viable for McAdams.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Um, you realize the way federal politics work in Alaska, right?
A candidate's biggest selling point is ability to bring home the bacon. To that end, it's far easier to run when your opponent doesn't have years of seniority on you. Unless it looks like Young is going to jail, Alaskan voters really don't care that much about the things that he's done which would make him a flawed candidate in the lower 48, so long as he keeps bringing home the bacon.

[ Parent ]
Ofcourse
But if McAdams plays a good campaign, he can point out that Young's ethics issues impairs his ability to bring home that bacon. :)

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
that worked out really well
For Ethan Berkowitz in 2008.

[ Parent ]
.
Did Ethan try that angle? I thought he just banged him for being corrupt? If he did try it, then I take it bake and agree with you completely.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I think there's a Wyoming hypothesis to test
aka, how Freudenthal has extra positive approvals, but can't hold water in a Senate race.

Nevertheless, I'm guessing we'll see Dittman matchup numbers in a day or two. To me, Parnell is the obvious choice for a comparison poll.


[ Parent ]
Is MN's GOP bench strong
I know we just lost the MN House and Senate, but how strong is their bench.  

With Pawlenty and Bachmann more like to eye the WH than a Senate seat, who else is on their bench that could win statewide?  Is Cravak considered that much of a rising star (his 2010 win seems more fluky to me but what do I know).

Or is the concern that MN always has the chance of a 3-way race which almost invariably hurts the Democrat?


[ Parent ]
Cravaack is 100% not seen as a rising star
Currently it's just T-Paw and Rep. Paulsen but once the legislature has another round of elections and some are weeded out, I think we'll see who they've got coming down the pike.  But the Dems won every statewide election in 2010 so I'm not really that concerned about any of their GOPers.  We've got the mayors of Minneapolis and St. Paul who can both win senatorial and gubernatorial elections easily enough ready to go.

[ Parent ]
Cravaack looks more like dead wood washed up ashore to me
Let's make sure he looks like that to everyone else.

(Figuratively of course.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Begich will always be vulnerable b/c Democrats play so minor a force in Alaska politics
Dems make up only about 20 percent of the Alaskan electorate, meaning Begich would always have to win Independents by at least 15 to 20 points and also garner some Republican votes. Let's not forget that Begich barely defeated perhaps the most flawed incumbent in any 2008 Senate race. If the Alaska GOP can run a competent, non-Joe Miller candidate, that candidate should prevail.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
No.
Begich barely defeated TED STEVENS. Anyone who knows anything about Alaska Politics nows that despite his legal issues, he was basically an Alaskan legend.

[ Parent ]
Ted Stevens, although ornery, was the father of modern Alaska.
After his conviction, his supporters were chanting: "Fuck the Feds!  Elect Ted!"

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Agree, Stevens was no typical "flawed incumbent"......
You can't compare Ted Stevens to the likes of almost any other incumbent.  He was truly a legend in his state who attracted broad and deep loyalty.  It had to be extraordinarily difficult for half the voters to nix him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Gonna disagree with you here
Ted Stevens may have been the father of modern Alaska, but he was also convicted of felonies right before the election. Alaskan voters may vote for some outliers, but tell me the last time a state voted in a convicted felon (even though it was later overturned).

The fact that Begich barely won is indicative of how Conservative is at the state level. You combine the fact the midterm election will likely be at least slightly anti-Obama in 2014 (unless its an anamoly like 1998), and the fact Begich seems to be voting as a down-the-line Democrat I think he's going to be in serious trouble unless Joe Miller or some other like lunatic is nominated.

I know I'm not going to convice you DC, and you're right more often than not. I also am not neccesarily questioning the polling result. But I think it's way too early to reach any conclusions about Alaska based on polls, whereas I think based on history and the voting patterns of the state, especially during midterms, I think you can.

Anyway, it will be three years before we see who is right.  


[ Parent ]
But how was the scandal playing in Alaska?
His conviction occurred eight days before people voted, but I could see a situation where a lot of people didn't let it sink in, directly or indirectly, which helped him. He claimed in a debate with Begich that he was innocent even after he was technically convicted, and based on the amount of good will he had built up in the state, I could see people giving him the benefit of the doubt.  

"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?

[ Parent ]
Oh, and as for Kagan and Franken...
I think Kagan, must like Begich, was lucky in that she faced a very flawed incumbent in '08. I think, at best, she's looking at a toss-up. Franken, on the other hand, is probably in better shape, because he'll have at least 85 percent of Democrats behind him and, with a third-party presence, anything can happen. He could win with low-40s. I mean, I'd peg his race at toss-up for now, but the Minnesota GOP bench is pretty horrible. If Coleman runs again, it'll be a toss-up.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
It's Hagan, dude
Don't worry, it happens a lot even in NC.  Her first name is Kay, so many just combine her first and last name into one.

Hagan hasn't been attacked in NC by many folks, probably because the conservatives are all over our governor, Bev Perdue.  Hagan is actually moderately popular in eastern NC which should help her a lot.  Too early to tell, but I think her chances of being re-elected is greater than 50%.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Hagan
The one thing going for her is the Republican bench. Dems control all statewide office. McHenry and Ellmers are the only Reps young enough to take her on. McHenry will never be elected statewide in NC. I could see Ellmers doing it if she fundraises better and becomes more experienced in politics. (So no more mosque ads!)  

[ Parent ]
Hagan would destroy Ellmers
Ellmers is a pretty good example of the "not ready for prime time" deadwood which was washed ashore with the wave.

However, it's not as if NC Republicans would have no bench; by 2014 they'll have plenty of state senators to run.  I'm sure Thom Goolsby has his eye on moving up at some point, just for example.  I think making North Carolina winnable in 2014 is going to end up coming down to the level of NRSC involvement.

NC-06/NC-04


[ Parent ]
This doesn't square with other polling
PPP's last poll of the 2010 senate race in AK had Begich underwater at 39/47. I'm more inclined to believe PPP's numbers, but who knows. Alaska is such a hard state to poll.

Male, VA-08

[ Parent ]
Caveat
That was 2010 likely voters. Might be an important distinction.

[ Parent ]
Dittman got the 2010 Senate race right, PPP was wrong......
Dittman in late October had Murkowski up 37-27-23 on Miller and McAdams.

PPP had Miller up 37-30-30 on Murkowski and McAdams, and they had Murkowski's job approval badly underwater at 37-53.

Murkowski won 40-36-24.

By the way, Dittman was the only pollster to show Murkowski ahead late.

So I have to trust Dittman over PPP on Alaska.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Don Young has a 63-32 approval rating?
just...ugh.

[ Parent ]
He brings home the bacon
And that's all that matters.

[ Parent ]
nice!


22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Phila Mayor
: Also unexpectedly, Street's wacky ex-con brother Milton, who is in fact running against Nutter in the Dem primary, got three big union endorsements last week. Seems impossible to imagine him winning next month, though, no?
Milton's a joke; the unions are just pulling an Anyone But Nutter move as a protest against a protracted labor relations situation here.

And when Nutter wins
He'll be the bigger man and probably not show animosity like a John/Milton Street would against those who would campaign against them.

[ Parent ]
BTW is anyone else still amazed that John Street almost lost in 1999
Seriously how is that even possible in a city as Democratic as Philly. I'm still amazed at how close he came to losing that election.


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Not surprised at all.
Street is not the warmest guy, and Sam Katz isn't really a Republican.

[ Parent ]
John Street is awful
I'm thoroughly convinced he would have lost in 2003 if the Federal investigation hadn't come to light before the election.  The fact he was turn his office being investigated for corruption into a positive is still an amazing achievement (politically).

[ Parent ]
yes and no
Katz didn't know how to handle it -- he didn't want to run a racially charged campaign and just assumed folks would turn against an administration being investigated by the FBI, and in that silence the Dems were able to paint the investigation as a politically-minded witch hunt by GWB/Ashcroft against Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Katz couldn't win
There was anti-Bush, anti-Patriot Act-type sentiment throughout Philly.  He unified the city against the GWB administration.  Katz could do nothing without looking like a racist or someone in agreeement with the GWB administration.

If nothing else this probably helped Kerry win PA more easily than some thought.



[ Parent ]
The Mayor's race was 2003, not 2004.
And the race was tight before the FBI bug was revealed.  

[ Parent ]
I know
I live here.  Still Street unifying Philly against the Bush white house began in 2003, not 2004.

[ Parent ]
if you live here too, then you should remember
That this race was close pre-bug.

[ Parent ]
Hence my initial comment at 10:13 that you replied to
I'm thoroughly convinced he would have lost in 2003 if the Federal investigation hadn't come to light before the election.

Seriously, I'm not sure how my quote differs from you're thinking or why you're pressing this issue.  I made it very clear that I felt Street would have lost in 2003 without the bug.  


[ Parent ]
"Katz couldn't win" made it confusing. NT


[ Parent ]
that election wasn't D v R
It was Black vs. White.

[ Parent ]
mn-sen
I think that this election may very well define the ceiling for a dfl candidate. The republican ceiling is pretty well defined as being in the mid to upper 40s, but I think Amy will blow the doors off of her inaugural margin (remember, she did run against a very serious republican in 06 for an open seat.) Also, if the republicans nominate an all out bagger, or someone from the far fight socially, they may not make a play at Minnesota at all. That would be absolutely devastating down ballot for republicans. If Obama flirt with 60, and klobuchar gets 65 (that is my current over/under for her right now) republicans may be wittled down lower than 09 levels. Of course this all depends on what the courts draw for maps. I just get the feeling than 12 will be a bloodbath for the gop in Minnesota, regardless of national trends.

26 White Male. Born and raised in MN-8, currently living in MN-5.

"A man who stands for nothing will fall for anything."


Tea Party Texas
The GRIT have released a new Texas redistricting map that splits Travis County in 5 ways (removing ANY chance of a Democratic representative there). It also splits Bexar County 6 ways (though there the Democrats would have 3 of the seats).

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


Also
There are now about 20 St. House proposals online and a St. Senate map.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
State Senate
The State Senate map pretty much places a cap on Democrats at 12.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
...
Ofcourse that is exactly where we are now.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
SD-9
SD-9 in th Day map is much more Democratic than the current one, since Irving is much more Democratic friendly than Denton.  SD-10 looks about the same, but it probably has slightly better Democratic trends than the current one, since it no longer includes Colleyville.  

[ Parent ]
the fact that
a state as massive and populous as Texas has only 31 Senate districts is patently ridiculous.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
Don't they like, have more federal house seats than that?


[ Parent ]
Yes
Yes.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
well the same is true
of the California Senate

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
splitting it 5 ways
sounds like an eventual dummymander to me.

[ Parent ]
Nope.
Splitting it five ways is an amazing showing of ingenuity for the Tea Party. One of those five ways is a Hispanic seat connected to San Antonio, which would push Lloyd Doggett out through a primary.

Austin doesn't have that great of a population, and the further you go away from downtown the more Republican it gets (just like every city), but with Austin the change is remarkable. It isn't like Portland or San Francisco where it stays somewhat Democratic for awhile, but more like Dallas and Houston where it transitions into extremely hostile territory pretty quickly. Cedar Park is extremely Republican. New Braunfels is as well. Round Rock is swing-ish, but still takes effort for us to win. Same for San Marcos. The cities that these district connect to (Houston suburbs in two different ways, San Antonio suburbs, Georgetown, and Bell County) are some of the most Republican in the state.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
...
*Districts

The map is just awful. It respects Houston's and Dallas's current VRA districts (sortof), but totally disrespects Austin, San Antonio, and the Valley. One must wonder if GRIT has any understanding of federal law whatsoever...  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
It is really devious
Looks like Doggett really would be screwed.

GRIT 2


[ Parent ]
Stunning
I mean you have admire the ingenuity, but wow.

[ Parent ]
Who proposed the Pate & Owens plans?
I see both of those allowed for a district entirely within Travis County, a district that included most of Austin. I assume that's good for Lloyd Doggett?

And how about all that cutting through DFW??!! It's as if Edward Scissorhands himself shred Dallas & Tarrant Counties!

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
.
Congressional maps:

Anything wholly contained in Travis County is going to be a Democratic vote-sink. The optimum for Democrats is to split it two ways. One which reaches into Williamson County for the rest of the votes, and the other which takes in Hays County. Both would be about D+5, instead of a D+15 district. Any more splits will yield us only a single district at about D+10 (like the current map).

Splitting Bexar County three ways is most optimum for Democrats. A district which encompasses the southern section of Bexar County, a district which connects the core to Seguin and New Braunfels, and a district which takes in everything outside of 410 on the north side as well as a few counties north of there would yield three districts ranging from D+1 to D+15.

The splitting of Dallas, Tarrant, and Harris are all due to the VRA. They have to. I'm really not adept at understanding the intricacies of those areas, but if you have any questions about Austin, San Antonio, El Paso, and southern New Mexico I'll be able to answer as good (if not better) than most here.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
So what's preferable...
A gerrymander/dummymander that cracks Travis County, or a gerrymander that packs the most progressive parts of Travis County into a Democratic vote sink?

And same question on Bexar County? What can be done within VRA parameters that will hurt Dems the least?

Since the GOP has the reins in Texas, it seems like we can only hope for so much. So what should Dems be willing to settle for?

Or do you think there's a shot at nuking a GOP gerrymander on steroids in court?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


[ Parent ]
.
The Democrats have to settle for whatever the Republicans give us.

The above comment was a "if the Democrats were magically in charge fantasy land" comment. A redistricting plan that cracks Travis two ways is not a dummymander. A redistricting plan that cracks it three ways is. A redistricting plan that cracks it four or more makes all of those districts about R+5-R+8 (this is the optimal Republican plan). They know they won't get away with that in court though because of the ramifications that it would cause in San Antonio related to the VRA, so they'll always put the Dem vote sink in Austin for Doggett.

In San Antonio, the Republicans pretty much have to have two Democratic seats wholly or mostly in Bexar County alone.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Pate and Owens Maps
A.J. Pate and Bill Owens

[ Parent ]
This map is such a freaking dummy-mander
I really hope they enact this, it doesn't do anything to mitigate demographic shifts at all (see no VRA district DFW or Houston plus laughable attempt to take out Doggett by pairing half of Austin with Williamson county, absurd vivisection of South Texas Rio valley).

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1

[ Parent ]
Wrong
Definitely not a dummymander. The GRIT proposals stand about as likely a chance to be enacted as pigs do to fly.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I don't agree
Take just the Austin area for instance -- Although they might take out Doggett they create a demographic timebomb in three districts. Although the portions of Travis County in the 25th are the more suburban less liberal areas which you reference earlier, the portions in the 22nd the 10th and the 31st are all deep blue Austin. Although the portions they've added might be enough to take out Doggett in 2010, by 2020 all three will be at best (for the Reps) toss-ups and at worst lean-dem seats.

For the 31st: Although Williamson is Rep-leaning now, it's trending pretty rapidly D and the small population of Burnett and Llano won't be enough to counteract it plus the district's portions of Austin by the end of the decade

For the 22nd: This one's a slam dunk for us - The portions of Fort Bend county are rapidly diversifying and blueing with a rapidly growing black, hispanic, and asian population. This plus it's portion of Austin would overwhelm the tiny rural counties (and sliver of Bastrop) in between and make what would likely be a stong D seat by the end of the decade

For the the 10th: The Rep's are probably okay here, but this seat could still potentially be at risk by the end of the decade. Although still R-leaning, both Waller and Bell are diversifying and have a noticeable trend our way. That plus Austin could very well coutneract the small rural counties plus the district's portion of Bastrop to lead to a tossup by the end of the decade.

DFW and Houston are even more self-destructive in my opinion, but I'll leave that to another post.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
Demographic timebomb
I'm sure you've seen the many other posts, but I think putting a 9 year time limit on the "demographic timebomb" in Texas might be a little optimistic.  The Demographics aren't voting in significant enough quantites yet and the trend in voters isn't increasing as substantially as needed either.

[ Parent ]
While I agree that people overpromise in Texas that's not the case here
The reason Texas hasn't developed as we'd like has more to do with relatively weak voter role growth in places such as South Texas and Dallas coupled with continued declines among rural Texas whites. Eventually the demographic trends will become irresistible but I agree that it will be while before Texas is fully in the Democratic camp.

That being said... all of the things I mentioned in the previous post were already in evidence in 2008. Fort Bend, Bell, Williamson, Bastrop, and Travis all had tremendous dem shifts that primarily have to do with political shifts of liberal professionals and growth of white collar professionals in the Austin area coupled with substantial growth among African-Americans in Fort Bend, Waller, and Bell. None of these districts really rely on the growth in hispanic voter registration that we've been relying on and not -- as of yet -- seen.

More broadly -- while we don't know when Texas will see a massive increase in Hispanic registration it will certainly see a substantial uptick as hispanic citizens that were born in the US increasingly enter adulthood.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
Those of us who keep banging on about TX
Aren't suggesting it will become like California. The suggestion is it will become competitive which would be huge in itself.

[ Parent ]
I get that
And i don't want to be becoem the new version of that poster who predicted we were going to lose 100 seats in the house last cycle.

My points are (1) that the eventual demographic change in Texas will be slow and probably won't be hugely relevant in the 2012-2020 house race cycles, (2) I still think are up in the air more than most.

I will re-post something I posted in a convo with b.j and markhanna the other day, I think going after the college towns is as good a starting point as any, if not better.  I'm far more confident in maybe trying to turn ome of these college towns blue-r than some other strategies, especially the statewide ones.  

My main example was Univ of North Texas in Denton, which i think has been very GOP over the years.  UNT has grown a ton in recent years and it seems like it will eventually become the 2nd biggest school in the state.  Given how major university centers often become Democratic bases, I'd love to get this moving ASAP vs supporting anyone statewide (but that's a whole different convo)


[ Parent ]
Give me a break
Travis had a left-ward shift because Bush wasn't on the ballot, not because of some actual political shift.

Bastrop? Seriously? Bastrop doesn't have the population to make a difference anywhere ever.

Williamson, on the other hand, is becoming more Democratic. The problem is that the political shift there is unlikely to continue into the future. The current political shift is a result of hispanic in-migration that was largely halted because of the recession. At the moment, most of the growth is taking place in Cedar Park and Georgetown which are retirement havens (read: Republican voters). If anything, the trend is going to slow or stop.

Don't be surprised when Travis County starts taking a slight right-ward turn when Austin starts developing the eastern fringes with suburban housing.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Travis County
Travis County had a huge pro-Democratic swing in 2004, when Bush was on the ticket.  Gore lost it by five while Kerry won it by fourteen.  This is after Clinton winning it by double digits in 1992 and 1996.  Hell, Dukakis won it by over nine.  If anything, 2000 is the outlier because Bush was on the ticket.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I really should let this go and get back to work but a few more things before I do --
#1: I don't quite understand why your tone is so serious -- ie "give me a break" "seriously?" etc. We're all friends here and I don't wish to get into any heated discussions. I've always very much enjoyed the collegial tone of SSP.

#2: More substantively -- you didn't answer my remarks w/r/t Fort Bend which I think are very significant and a serious flaw with the 22nd.

#3: I understand your skepticism about the importance of Bastrop (it certainly wan't the main point of my post above) but it does seem inevitable that the Dem margins in the Austin area (if not necessarily the percentage) will increase since the population of the metro area is growing very rapidly and is and continues to be very blue. Also -- I don't really agree with your analysis w/r/t Bush, Travis has long been Dem-leaning and has become much more so of late. I think the real abberation was Bush's overperformance in 2000 and 2004 not Dem's subsequent strong performance in the county.


25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
I Wish
that everyone could see the congenial smirk on my face when I type those things :)

I'm really a very sweet person, honest, but I can see why I come off as really serious and bitchy when you just see words. I'll type more emoticons from now on to show my real mood :)

;) Sorry.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Your tone is seriously unusual for this site
"Wrong", "Nope", "Give me a break" and so on.  I'm not perfect, but unless you're trying to make enemies maybe work on your prose.

[ Parent ]
The math in Texas is that we're probably looking at 2028 before...
...we might be competitive in Texas in a Presidential.

I've laid this out before, the white vote in Texas has gone about 75-25 Republican the past couple times, while the nonwhite vote went 75-25 for Obama.  So that would mean a 50-50 split between whites and nonwhites would make it a tossup.

BUT Democrats will not hold the 75-25 margin with nonwhites over time because the growth in nonwhite voting comes from Hispanics who are with us only in the low/mid-60s, so that their growth means our nonwhite share will drop down toward 70 or even below that.

Thus, we need the white vote share to drop at least down to 45%, perhaps closer to 40, before Texas realistically is a tossup for us.

This all assumes the white vote remains inelastic.

When it comes to downballot, we'll likely be competitive a little sooner than in a Presidential, although not a lot sooner based on how local and state elections have been going.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Sadly, I agree with all of that
Wow 17 more years until 2028.  And even then, that's just being competitive.  Heck, by 2032 Texas could have 45-50 electoral votes, so it will be tremendously important.

[ Parent ]
.
I agree with it as well, but 45-50 EVs? We only have 36 right now, we'd have to gain five in 2020 and another four or five in 2030 - faster than  we grew this decade. I'd say like 42-44 is more likely. Still though, you're right that that would be massively important.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Growth is increasing though
It wouldn't surprise me if they got 5 in 2020.  Texas is not suffering from outflow the way California is either, though who knows if that remains constant.  

Texas has:
1.  foreign immigration
2.  domestic immigration
3.  energy dependent (or any type of recession-proof) economy
4.  limited real estate meltdown

Compared to the other growth states like FL, NV, AZ, GA and some others, its rare to have all 4 of these.  


[ Parent ]
1-4
All definitely true, but I'd also add these:

5. diversity of attractive large population centers.
6. large healthcare sector.
7. large technology sector.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Oddly, considering what a skeptic I am about Texas
I might call it a little sooner - I'd think by 2024 we'd be competitive. But you've done the math, so you're probably right.  

[ Parent ]
Again my math assumes an inelastic white vote, and you can question...
...if that's right if knowledgeable people have reason to believe younger Texas whites are friendlier to our party, and/or there is in-migration by center-left whites from other states.

But I have no idea if those things are happening.  They've certainly been happening in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, which has helped us although in Georgia that factor is overwhelmed by white native Georgians turning uniformly against us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
You're Right
I think that you are largely correct about the white vote in Texas. Although I suspect you might be overestimating their Republican-ness by a few points. Instead of 75-25, 70-30 may be more realistic. Ofcourse this is still much more Republican than the 60-40 (and sometimes 55-45) split of whites during the late 1990s.

This decade has seen some interesting factors that all mask the natural tendencies of the white vote to some extent. In 2000 and 2004 you had Bush. 2002 was a good year for Republicans, but above that the major Democratic candidates were mostly minority (before the minority vote was actually important). In 2006 the gubernatorial race was four way. In 2008 you had a black man atop the ticket and in 2010 there was massive disproportionally Republican turnout.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
The other thing to consider is the age gap in the Hispanic vote
Not sure whether this is a life-cycle or age cohort effect but it is notable that the 2008 exit poll showed hispanics under 30 voting for Obama by 70-30 margins and older hispancs voting for him by 60-40 margins.

It's also notable that both the 2008 and 2010 exit polls showed Obama and White winning voters under 30, staying competitive with voters between 30-45 losing voters between 45-65 and getting crushed with the over 65 crowd. Both elections would have been relatively competitive without the over-65 vote. Interestingly the age gap was due much less to age cohort differences between the voting habits within racial groups as it was to the different racial composition of different voter groups (ie young whites don't vote all that different than old whites but the under 30s were about 50% white while the 45-65 were like 65% white and the over 65s were over 75% white).

I don't really put all that much stock into exit polls but it is an interesting data point all and all.  

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
I think you are way off.
I think your argument is based on a few erroneous assumptions. One is that we need that much more of the white vote to actually win. We don't. We need just over 30 percent of the white vote, assuming the non-white vote is there. Were we to get 35 percent, we'd probably win, perhaps easily, or come very, very  close to it. Another is that the we need the portion of the electorate that is white to sink to 45 or even 40 percent before Texas is a tossup. Having that happen would be pretty damn good, even if the margins with non-whites stay where they are. Another is that, or at least seems to be, that non-whites will stay with us by the same margins they vote with us now. The Republicans could continue with what they have now, or do even better, of course, but I think the opposite, Democrats doing even better, is more likely. They don't have to see that much more growth to be really damaging to the Republicans, and in Texas, they probably have an easier time because the growth won't come so much from flipping Republican Hispanics but rather bringing new ones into the process.

What follows is a lot numbers in a few different scenarios, but I think they should get my point across. Some numbers will be rounded, just to be simple. The baseline will be 2008, with a racial breakdown of 63/13/20/4, with the last category being a combination of Asians and "others," and with Obama's breakdown at 26/98/65/65. That last part is an assumption, but I think it's a fair one. Perhaps it's higher, but I'd rather be cautious. On that note, I'm going to assume that the black vote goes back down to 90 percent for Democrats. It could easily go higher, but I am not sure it will always go that high without  black candidate on the ballot. The overall trend is a continued de-whitening of the population, mostly a direct gain-loss between the white and Hispanic vote.

2016: 60/23/13/4
--25/65/90/65 = 44.25
--25/70/90/65 = 45.40
--30/70/90/65 = 48.40
--35/70/90/65 = 51.40

2020: 58/25/13/4
--25/65/90/65 = 45.05
--25/70/90/65 = 46.30
--30/70/90/65 = 49.20
--35/70/90/65 = 52.10

2024: 55/28/13/4
--25/65/90/65 = 46.25
--25/70/90/65 = 47.65
--30/70/90/65 = 50.40
--35/70/90/65 = 53.15

2028: 53/31/13/4
--25/65/90/65 = 47.70
--25/70/90/65 = 49.25
--30/70/90/65 = 51.9
--35/70/90/65 = 54.5

Now, you said that you were assuming the white vote remains inelastic. Well, yes, if that were to happen, we'd need a much larger share of the electorate to be non-white, and to continue to clean up with that share. But as I think these numbers show, we need some decent but not particularly incredible improvement in the white vote, and we can be in the game much sooner. I talk about this a lot, obviously, but I think it's safe to say that if we get 35 percent of the white vote, we will be in good shape going into the future. That might not be possible--it does, in fact, require changing a significant number of minds, stirring up reluctant voters that usually sit things out, or bringing some new ones into the system.  But the sheer size of the state makes it seem more daunting than it probably is. If we devote resources on an appropriate scale, then it can be done. It's not a perfect comparison, but in your state of Virginia in 20014, there were about 3,172,000 votes cast between the two main parties, while in 2008, there were about 3,685,000 votes cast. That's about 16 or 17 percent more. Why can't the same be done in Texas? An overall increase of 20 percent, adding about 1,617,000 to the 2008 total of 8,085,000, would be way more than enough to put us over the top. Wait, what, you say that we have most of those votes going to Obama? Well, in 2008, almost every single additional vote went to him.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Well the assumption that matters that you disagree with is...
...my assumption that the white vote is inelastic.

The 2010 exit poll shows Bill White got 29% in a strong Republican year.

The 2008 exit poll shows Obama got 26%, and Rick Noriega 27%, in a strong Democratic year.

The 2006 exit poll shows Radnofsky got 30% and Chris Bell 24% in a strong Democratic year.  (Both underperformed badly with black and Hispanic voters.)

The 2004 exit poll shows Kerry getting 25%.

So yeah you've got a couple instances there of a Democrat getting 29-30%, but those are the upper end and seem to be offset by inconsistent performance with people of color.  Indeed, the exit polls above all show white voters far more inelastic, with just a 6-point float, than blacks or Hispanics.  It's striking that Radnofsky, a sacrificial lamb who had zero chance of being competitive, supposedly did the best with white voters over the past several cycles.  Of course the reality is that exit polls aren't always right, they have their own margins of error and confidence intervals, and sometimes they are provably way off.  And subsamples of blacks and Hispanics are much smaller and much less reliable than subsamples of white voters, which in turn are much less reliable than the total sample.

Ultimately I think it's pretty clear white voters in Texas are intransigently Republican.  That we keep losing by double-digits and can't reach 45% on our best days even while the white vote share keeps shrinking, that says a lot.  I realize the Bush election in 2004 was misleading because of home state favoritism and his uncommon strength with Hispanics, but even so the subsequent elections are telling.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Whites in Texas
I guess you could say that the they need to get reach a level of support amongst white voters that seems very doable, with enough work and a little luck in the form of a year not like 2010. We aren't talking about the Democratic candidate getting 45 percent of the white vote, after all. How we do it--what combination of changing some minds, bringing new voters into the system, and turning out those that are already in the system we use to get that 35 percent of the white vote--isn't clear, but I don't want to write it off, for any number of reasons.



"I have never deliberately given anybody hell. I just tell the truth on the opposition-and they think it's hell."--President Harry Truman. President Obama, are you listening?


[ Parent ]
Deep Blue?
Austin is not deep blue. I really hate it when people say that. Austin is deep blue only compared to the rest of Texas. It's a red bastion when compared to real deep blue places like Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, and New York City.

By 2020 all of those districts will still be Republican.


21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.


[ Parent ]
Well I guess that's a matter of semantics but...
Obama won Travis county by 30 points, Bill white won it by 23 points. Both won the city of Austin itself by noticeably more considering the 50-50 vote in Western portion of the County drags down the county vote. I guess it's a matter of semantics, but the city of Austin itself, while less liberal than places like Baltimore, Detroit, or Seattle, has average performance comparable to other cities that are usually considred deep blue that have average Dem performance in the 70-75% range such as NYC, Denver, or  Milwaukee.

More generally though, I'd be interested in hearing why you think those three districts will all be Republican by 2020.

25, Democrat, male, Currently living and voting in PA-2, originally form OK-1


[ Parent ]
.
10th: Bell County
31st: Williamson County, but primarily the fact that it doesn't take in any part of Travis that has 1) population and 2) liberal voters.
22nd: This is the likeliest to flip, but Fort Bend County is still Republican leaning.
25th: Western Travis county is the most Democratic area here, and even that is only 50-50.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
You're totally wrong
Look at the Obama/McCain numbers.

10 - Bell County has a very fast growing black and Hispanic population in Killeen. A lot of this is military, so turnout is low in off year elections, but not in Presidentials.
31 - Look at the actual results in Williamson County. Cedar Park, for example, was quite competitive between Obama and McCain. True, it was more Republican in 2010, but Republicans would be idiots to draw their map off of 2010.
22 - Really it's Katy in Harris County that does more to make this somewhat competitive for the GOP - not Fort Bend.
25 - Yeah, the most Democratic area is Western Travis County... If you entirely ignore the fact that it has basically all of South Austin.


[ Parent ]
GRITs
The GRIT proposals stand about as likely a chance to be enacted as pigs do to fly.

I suspect that scientists will genetically mutate a pig with a bird or a flying dinosaur well before anyone takes GRITs serously.  Well, that's perhaps a little unfair.  I honestly don't know much about GRITs.  In fact, I don't really know anyone who had heard of them before these maps.  However, I, and most of my neighbors, do know the GRITs chairman Bill Burch, since he and I both live in Arlington.  Burch ran for Arlington city council, where he was beaten soundly by a more moderate Republican Robert Rivera, but nominally city council races in Texas are nonpartisan.  He then ran against Democratic State Rep Paula Pierson in 2008, where he lost by 17.  No one on either side of the aisle has lost that seat by that much in its current form. He tried to run against Pierson again in 2010, but unfortunately he lost in the Republican primary to Barbara Nash by a handful of votes.  I say "unfortunately" because Nash went on to defeat Pierson, and I am convinced that Pierson, even in the torturous 2010 climate, would have still beaten Burch.  As a person, Burch exudes grumpy old man.  One time, at a League of Women Voters Candidate Forum, the moderator, who was at least nominally nonpartisan admonished him because of his over the top angry and rude behaviour.  Another time, I was talking to a Republican operative in Tarrant County about Burch, when we were both working for opposing campaigns at a polling location.  Burch had apparently tried to hire this person, but he declined since Burch was just too much of an idiot.  That spoke volumes, since the operative had previously worked for Bill Zedler, who is completely insane.  In short, nobody takes Burch seriously, no one should take his organization seriously, and no one should take the GRITs maps seriously.


[ Parent ]
I Don't
As I said, the plan is just for show. We should talk about them though, because they might be indicative of what Republicans will try to do.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
I LOVE the GRIT map
It is, bar none, the biggest dummymander I have ever seen.

All 3 of the Austin area seats that people have been talking about (TX-10, TX-22, TX-31) could potentially elect Democrats not just way off in the future, but in 2012.

Obama McCain numbers:

TX-10 Obama 48.5%, McCain 50.2%
TX-22 Obama 48.8%, McCain 50.1%
TX-31 Obama 46.1%, McCain 52.1%

So none of them are gimme's, but all of them could have been competitive in 2008. With Presidential year turnout and further demographic change...


[ Parent ]
TX-25
And actually, TX-25 is 47.7% Obama, 50.8% McCain. Of those 4 districts, that's the one I would be most pessimistic about (mainly because of Comal County and its part of Guadalupe County). Then again, it has a bunch of South Austin.

[ Parent ]
...
Where did you get these numbers? If these are accurate then I take back every single word I've said about the map. Until I get a link I maintain my viewpoint that the districts are Republican. Remember, Obama outperformed many Democrats in the state in 2008.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
.
Obama's performance was also something off a high water mark in the state thus far, so I'd pin these districts as all being something like R+5 to R+15. How many Democrats are currently holding seats that Republican? There certainly aren't any in Texas.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Argh
I hate myself. *of not off.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Got the numbers by drawing the disctricts in Dave's Redistricting App
There are no Dems currently holding R+5 seats in TX because there aren't any - the Republicans in 2003 were smart enough not to draw them. There is no seat, apart from TX-23, with Obama-McCain numbers anything like in these districts. Dems won lots of State House districts though which narrowly voted for McCain in 2008 (which then promptly switched back in 2010).

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Dave's doesn't have the partisan numbers for the 2010 data. Using the 2008 numbering data is suboptimal.  

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Based on your BH post and links therein, I'd say "don't sound scared" is slightly misleading......
Sure Strawn and Branstad "don't sound scared," but Strawn's and Branstad's public remarks don't reveal anything.  They're going to downplay Vilsack's chances, that's predictable, that's their job in messaging, anything else would be shocking.  So those public remarks from Strawn and Branstad don't impress me as reflecting the state GOP establishment's view of the race.  For whatever money King is able to raise nationally, Vilsack can do at least as well and probably better since she's well-connected and well-liked by the broad national Democratic establishment, in addition to being able to use King as an easy foil for national small donors.

King is vulnerable in this new IA-04 and Vilsack is a strong challenger.

The "fish out of water" remark by Branstad is nonsense, Christie Vilsack is a statewide figure.  King, for his part, has never represented 21 counties that contain about half the population in the new district, and that half are people as a whole not remotely as conservative as the western Iowans to whom King is accustomed.  Of those 21 new counties, Obama won 14.

If Christie runs as strong a campaign as I'm guessing she will, this will be very winnable.  She made the smart decision here.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Sounds the opposite
If they didn't few her a a good challenger, they wouldn't be turning on the spin machine.  

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Realistically...
if Vilsack were to win, she'd be one-and-done. 2012 is the Democrats' one shot at winning the district, since King has no crossover appeal and he's going to have to introduce himself to a lot of new (Dem-leaning) voters. Any non-crazy bigot running on the Republican line would win this district pretty easily.

But hey, if it gets rid of King, I'm all for it. Vilsack should have no trouble raising money.


[ Parent ]
And that might encourage some Republicans...
to vote for Christie.  Get a Rep. with a pretty direct line to the President for two years, and get rid of the disgusting Steve King. In two years time you get a better Republican to run and win.  


[ Parent ]
Agree she probably holds it for one term only
She's probably too liberal for the district, but not too liberal to take out King.  

[ Parent ]
This assumption is very mistaken, Iowa history proves otherwise......
Iowa has been an exceptionally difficult state for challengers to win.

Setting aside Member-vs.-Member contests like Boswell vs. Latham next year, the only incumbent U.S. House members to lose reelection in Iowa in my 43-year lifetime have been in wave elections with only one exception, that when freshman Ed Mezvinsky lost in the 70s.  Even in waves, only 3 times have incumbents lost:  Bill Shirley (who explicitly supported and defended Nixon even after Nixon's crimes had been revealed) in the 1974 Watergate anti-GOP wave; Neal Smith in the 1994 wave; and Jim Leach in the 2006 wave.

We've had very liberal Tom Harkin represent conservative SW Iowa with no one able to defeat him.  We've had liberal Berkley Bedell represent NW Iowa with no one able to defeat him.  And we've had very conservative Jim Nussle represent liberal NE Iowa with no one able to defeat him.

And you saw last year what happened, all 3 Iowa Dems became vulnerable in an anti-Democratic wave, and yet all 3 still survived.

It's peculiarly hard to defeat an Iowa Congressman running for reelection.  That, in fact, is Vilsack's biggest obstacle, bigger than IA-04's PVI.

But if Christie wins, it will be a lot tougher to dislodge her than you think.

Also, you guys are acting like IA-04 is a R+15 district.  It's not, it's R+5, it's not that Republican.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
All true, but...
As a freshman representative, in what I think should be a Republican favorable year (assuming Obama wins), against a halfway sane candidate and assuming she's as liberal as I suspect she will be, I think she's going to have a tough time even with the advantages of Iowa incumbents you've listed above. +5 is +15, but it's still a bit of an uphill struggle for a liberal dem.

As far as your examples, two are from the 1970s and 80's when I think politics were less partisan than they are now, and Jim Nussle's district didn't include Iowa City and I don't think was quite as liberal, especially in the 1990's, as you're suggesting.

But first things first - I just want her to take out King, which you and I agree, she certainly can do this year.  


[ Parent ]
You can't predict that far into the future
Incumbency can count for a lot, if she wins and establishes herself well, she can hold it.

24, male, African-American, CA-24, Democrat. Chair of the SSP Black Caucus.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm...
Here's the DCCC ad attacking GOP congressman on their vote for Paul Ryan's budget. Skip to 0:19 for the lolz.



19, Male, Independent, CA-12


Any news on size of buy?


[ Parent ]
Tiny
$6,000 or so...

Purely meant as a web sensation...


[ Parent ]
Figures
At least they seem to have stopped posting the previously ubiquitous web ads. TV doesn't run 1:17 length ads? Who knew???

[ Parent ]
OMG
I love this. Grandpa pushing a lawnmower? Genius.

21, Conservative Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood) TX-10 (Home) TX-23 (School);   DKos: wwmiv.

[ Parent ]
Nevada Redistricting: Off to court we go?
Last night, The Assembly deadlocked on the state budget. And so far, the understanding in Carson is that any redistricting deal is contingent upon a budget deal (or vice versa?). So if the knock-down-drag-out budget battle royale rages on to Summer Special Session, will redistricting be forced upon The Nevada Supreme Court?

I'm starting to think a map like this may be more of a real possibility.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)


IN-SoS
Sadly, there's probably a "voter intent" argument to be made for the bill that's making its way through the house, considering the fact that White won with 57% of the vote, and Osli only got 37% and won exactly two counties in the entire state (There was a strong Libertarian who accounted for the other 5%). I grant that the GOP should've known better than to nominate a felon, but it's also not exactly democratic to just randomly appoint a guy who got 37% of the vote. Not that the GOP wouldn't do the same if the parties were switched, but also how many Democrats have you seen accused of vote fraud who ended up getting elected anyway?


If that is the argument in question.
Then why did several Republicans vote against changing the law. Also what were the two counties that voted for Vop?

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
One or two Republicans voting no out of thirty isn't a big deal
I'm pretty sure only Sue Glick voted no, and (it's a little unclear) she may have voted to pass it from the election committee and then changed her mind.

Osili won, in population order, Marion, Lake, Monroe, and Perry. And I think he only won by more than 10 points in Lake. The others were all relatively close.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
Still not quite justifiable
I can sort of understand that, except the fact that it's arbitrarily changing a law to take power away power those 37% of voters are meant to have (even if it's not particularly wise to give them it in the first place) and give it to just one person (Mitch Daniels), not exactly democratic or representative either. That's not to say that I'm questioning the legitimacy of appointed positions in general, but changing a law already on the books just because the eventuality the law already provides for arose does make the optics of it uniquely undemocratic, if that makes sense. Either appointments should've been the norm, the law change shouldn't have immediate effect or there should be a special election (in the third case, I'd imagine the GOP would win anyway, but at least It'd be fair)

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
After changing the rules for MA-Sen twice in the space of five years, the Democratic party has no room to talk, but I agree that it shouldn't be changed.  I think if you want to change the way people are replaced, the rule chance should not be allowed to become law until after the next regularly scheduled election to fill the position.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
The Dems got their comeuppance for the MA-Sen schemes
I expect nothing of the sort will happen as a similar consequence in Indiana.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Nice talking point
Only there is a massive difference between acting after the fact than in advance of an election.

[ Parent ]
Huh?
I'm not sure if you are talking about MA-Sen or my other point.  With regards MA-Sen, both changes were made in anticipation of the seat opening up.  With regard my suggestion, I just think that would be fair.  If you want to change the rules, it shouldn't apply right away.  That to me would take away lots of the opportunities for situational abuse.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
Both
Not that I disagree with you about playing games in MA but as you say the moves there were in anticipation of seats opening up rather than acting retroactively as in IN.

[ Parent ]
Just because one state
does it doesn't make okay for another to do it.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Agree
I don't think it's okay in either case and think it should be banned everywhere.

43 - Male - GOP/Libertarian - FL 22

[ Parent ]
It would have been much better
if they set up a special election to coincide with Indiana Municipal elections in November.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Actually no
In MA it was done retroactively AFTER Ted Kennedy passed away to give the Dems an extra vote in the Senate to pass Obama's Healthcare plan.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
Er
Still has nothing to do with an election.

[ Parent ]
Fair point
And I can't help that think that the Dems weren't changing laws in Massachusetts because John Kerry was accused of voter fraud and was on the verge of being removed from office.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Karma
bit the Democrats back in Massachusetts pretty hard for that anyway. Scott Brown seems to be entrenching himself quickly, granted he's been playing the right moves and no one has savaged him yet but he could become unassailable outside a primary if he wins next year baring a bad year but that didn't even hurt Collins that much in 2008.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
That was different
Collins has considerably more cross-over support in a state less Democratic than MA.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Off topic...
I know that this is off-topic but I just wanted to post it here and any of the mods can feel free to delete this but I was able to attend President Obama's town hall meeting yesterday in Annandale, Virginia. It was a total amazing experience that I am still on cloud nine from. I was able to get an invitation through the local Democratic party as I am an active volunteer that they kept me in mind for a last minute opportunity. A few things just to let you guys know about for future events if you ever get the chance to go:

1. Get there early as seating is first come, first served. I was row one in front of him. Sadly the cameras were behind me so only the back of my head was on TV.

2. If you want an autograph bring a book and put a sticker on the book with your name. After he shakes hands you can give it to either secret service or Reggie Love who will get him to sign it backstage. I got my book signed.

3. Volunteer and hopefully people will recognize it for events like that. Though I am lucky to be right outside of DC and in a major swing state so my chances are a lot better of getting visits to my community than you guys in NY, TX and CA for example.

4. Have fun and remember the experience. I know I will!

28, Male, Democrat VA-08  


I <3 Mazie!
You go girl! Raise your money and crush Ed! Girl power! Ok I'm done.

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

dude
let's hang out sometime, haha

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
We could have a Hoosier SSP meeting sometime
And sign a pledge that if any of us ever gets elected as governor, we'd give sinecures to the others.

I'm just thinking ahead.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
We do seem to have
an inordinate amount of Hoosiers here. And most, if not all with some connection to the 9th.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
I'll give you nothing
and you'll like it!

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
This hypothetical iron-fisted rule's hostility to cronyism
Upsets and disappoints me.

:(

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
I run a tight ship!


19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Ha.
We should. The Indiana caucus is the strongest on SSP.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
This photo sums up
the power players of Hawaii emanating outwards from Inouye.

http://www.facebook.com/photo....

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)


[ Parent ]
I don't know much about Mayor Carvalho
Any chance he might step up to replace Rep. Hirono if she seeks election to the Senate?

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native

[ Parent ]
Sorry!
I meant the Senators, Congresswomen, and the Lt. Governor. I think that guys the mayor of a town on the furthest island. So he's in the district, but I'd imagine there are many people ready to take her place at the drop of a hat.  

19, Self Appointed Chair of the SSP Gay Caucus (I claimed it first :p), male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

[ Parent ]
Appears as though he's mayor of Kauai County
Not the smallest or most distant of the Hawaiian Islands, but not far off, either.

Of course, it's possible Lt. Gov. Schatz could replace Rep. Hirono, but I have a feeling Gov. Abercrombie isn't going to run for a second term (I think a number of Democratic freshman governors won't, including Govs. Kitzhaber, Brown, and perhaps Perdue) and the governor's mansion may be a better prize.

Mayor Carvalho is an interesting prospect in that he would join the very small Portuguese-American congressional caucus if elected.

20, center-left independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native


[ Parent ]
Why would Abercrombie be one-and-done?
I certainly understand the rationale for Brown and Kitzhaber (been there done that), and Perdue would probably be in the "Ritter-in-Colorado" scenario, but other than age, I can't imagine Abercrombie demurring on a second term.

23, liberal democrat, SSP Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college);   DKos: HoosierD42

[ Parent ]
California redistricting- Ventura County
Interesting article
Didn't talk about Congress though, just the legislature.  The concept seems favorable to Dems though, but also would look like a vertical gerrymander... basically a coastal strip, then a Latino-ish inland strip, then the Republican blob of Thousand Oaks/Simi Valley.


[ Parent ]
Marist
This poll is registered voters but again, they all seem to be saying the same thing whatever the sample. Reelect looks better than November, 37-44 now, 36-48 then. But the top two potential Republican candidates are doing better than they were in January.

Romney 46-45 (51-38)
Huckabee 48-43 (50-38)
Palin 56-34 (56-30)
Trump 54-38

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/4...


12
You know I really wasn't worried about Obama until recently.  I figured if he was still leading these bozos in 2010 that he would be fine, but somehow his numbers are continuing to errode even as the economy outside of gas is getting better.  I'm starting to get worried.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
"outside of gas"
You nailed it! Take solace in the fact he is still winning even with upside down job approval.

[ Parent ]
What are you talking about? There's no erosion at all......
Look carefully at the numbers, the trendline conspiracy provided is from January, not anytime in 2010.  Obama had a bump in January/early February that receded, everyone knows that, but he's no worse off than last year.

Not only am I still not worried, but I'm actually more confident than ever before.  The Ryan budget gives us THE contrast of the 2012 election.  It puts the GOP in a box in a bad way and gives us a clear advantage.  And on top of that, the chaos in the Republican nomination battle is making them all look even smaller.  All this can change quickly if Romney and/or Pawlenty rise to the top come January, but right now neither one is anything close to a frontrunner, and their party is a disaster all things considered.

Obama is in really good shape.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I totally agree re: the Ryan budget
In fact, I'm surprised there hasn't been much discussion on this site as to how that's going to make it very difficult for an Republican to win in 2012, even with the economy and gas prices coming into play. If you're the Republican nominee, either you tell seniors you're taking away Medicare or telling tea-party types you're not with them on cutting spending.

I have been thinking for awhile that Ryan's budget, and the fact every Republican is on record for voting for it, puts the House in play in 2012 as well, and may make it easier for Dems to increase their hold on the Senate.  


[ Parent ]
I'm not as sanguine...
Obama took a big swing at the Ryan budget and his poll numbers actually dropped afterwards!  Instead of the home run we thought he had, he whiffed.  That's a big bummer and suggests that even though the Ryan plan will be unpopular, it's going to be a lot more on who sells it and how we do it.  Right now the GOP is still winning the spin game on something that is fundamentally unpopular.  They are good at this, and if we can't manage to hit back effectively (and so far, we haven't--no one is listening), we are in deep, deep trouble.

The deficit is GOP territory, and it's difficult to compete in that area even if you have the winning hand.  We've got to get out of debt-mongering for us to have a real chance. I realize that the president's hands a re bit tied in regards to jobs, but he needs to hammer home that his hands are being tied by the GOP in regards to jobs.  So far, Obama wants to play the GOP game.  He's not going to win that way... not at all.


[ Parent ]
That's not what caused the slight dip.
You're falling for the "correlation = causality" trap.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Correct, and I'm fatigued by people connecting the speech to any polling......
That was not a speech many people paid attention to.  Average voters don't care that much about the deficit, and they weren't bothering to watch that speech.

And hardly any voters are aware of the Ryan budget or Obama's response and counterproposal.

For political junkies and even moreso political journalists, news at 9:00 p.m. one evening is stale in 24 hours.

For average voters, anything potentially important, especially when it's purely legislative and not coming out of the regular news, takes many weeks to sink in with voters, assuming it's getting a good amount of free media coverage and elected officials are pushing their messaging hard enough.

Still today, most average voters aren't aware of the Ryan budget or Obama's budget.

There is gobs of polling right now showing that people don't want what the Ryan budget would do, but those same people have no idea that there's a real legislative proposal to do those horrific things.

This all will take time to sink in.

And Obama's speech, most people probably aren't aware he even gave one on this subject.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Jeez
He really can't win with you can he?

[ Parent ]
The Post/ABC poll
that showed slippage in Obama's approval rating post-speech and Paul Ryan plan also showed declines in approval for John Boehner and the GOP, and huge majorities against major provisions of the Ryan plan, such as that relating to Medicare.  So Obama's not the only one hurt here, and he quite possibly less severely than others.

35, Male, Democrat, MD-8

[ Parent ]
Sure
But it isn't like they polled right before the speech and then again right after. He had already dropped back into negative territory before last week according to other polls.

[ Parent ]
Right
This is all silly. There is no way you can argue based on what the polls are showing that the Ryan budget is anything but a net minus for Republicans. (not that your arguing that Conspiracy - I'm talking about others higher in the thread).  

[ Parent ]
Yup, too many political junkies and, sadly, even smart journalists like Chuck Todd, are too obsessed about the trees...
...and missing the forest.

Voters almost never change their opinion of a President based on a speech.  Once in a great while a speech matters.  Obama's Tucson speech mattered, because it represented his leading the country through a national trauma.  Even then, his job approvals had risen before that speech, and there's no evidence they later moved any higher because of the speech.

Especially when you're talking about legislative initiatives that are manufactured by leaders, rather than in response to events in people's lives, people are very slooooow to digest information.  It takes weeks or months of messaging to break through the clutter and reach people.  Even as damning as Ryan's social darwin budget is, it will take time to get across to the public what is in it, and more time for them to absorb it.  Obama's counterproposal won't necessarily even register for much longer than that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
LOL! Not true...
Actually, I have a much greater appreciation for Obama now.  I had forgotten how much his hands were tied, since any firm stand on anything has hurt him with indies, and if he even tries to defend himself against a bullshit reporter, he's tarred as the "angry black man".

If anything, I am even MORE in his corner now than before (and I was always in his corner).  I am not blaming him for the deficit being the dominant conversation.  The S&P report did that for him.  I'm just saying that as long as the dominant conversation is about the deficit, it's going to be a rough slog for us.

We have to find a way to shake out of this conversation, but I don't see how at the moment.  I know that the Obama team thinks that making a fair deal on the deficit will help him with indies, but chasing indies is like a dog chasing its tail.  The results are usually futile, and success is often painful.

I am not blaming him... The environment is just killing us at the moment!  It's going to be a difficult challenge for the president to get through this.

I do have his back! :-) I'm just frustrated that no matter what move the president makes, it seems to be a losing one with the public (even though he's doing everything pretty much right).  I apologize if I implied otherwise.  I'm not feeling very good today physically and it's made me cranky! :-)  My apologies again.


[ Parent ]
His numbers are down because of gas prices
If they stabilize or drop, he should be fine. But if there's another big rise next summer/fall he could be in big trouble.  

[ Parent ]
WI Recall: Conservaites get their first Dem...
...and it's Holperin.  The weakest link.  Damn.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...


Any thoughts
On how his district voted in other elections (Feingold numbers maybe).  The fact he was able to win in 2008 might give us some hope, but like almost all close races, turnout will be the deciding factor.  Can unions produce voters to the polls?

[ Parent ]
Klop got crushed here....
...and Walker romped last year.  This one definitely makes me nervous 'considering the great GOTV the right wingers have.

[ Parent ]
What about Obama?
How did he fare there?

And why do you assume that the GOP has GOTV powers so much greater than ours? Isn't the enthusiasm mostly on our side?


[ Parent ]
The SC election put that to rest...
At best, we are even.  The Koch brothers will put in way more money into this one than the last one, and money buys elections.  

I'm going to see if I can find 2004 numbers for the district.  That will be the tell, since the SC election pretty much came out with Bush turnout.

This will not be a gimme by any means.


[ Parent ]
Um, I'd rather the Wisconsites weigh in first.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I mean the Wisconsite SSPers here


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
I never said it was
But nobody ever truly said that the SC race, or this, would be a gimme. We never saw any polls. We just had anecdotal evidence about the races and internal polling we never saw but that showed a really close race (and it was).

It's next to impossible to defeat a state SC justice, no matter what the political climate. And the fact that she almost did defeat him says a lot. You need to look at more races than that.

And by the way, more people finance elections than just the Koch Brothers. There are plenty of other left-wing and right-wing organizations.

And these guys gave money to Republicans for years before all this came up. Why do you hate them now?

(And you can't say because of Citizens United. People were able to spend large amounts of money on elections before that.)


[ Parent ]
I agree that the supreme court race numbers are probably a pretty shitty proxy for the recals
Klop was not the best candidate, and it's REALLY hard to oust an incumbent justice.

[ Parent ]
What are you talking about?
It's clear that Democrats have a significant turnout advantage. The only place that Republicans had a surge in turnout was the ultra-conservative suburbs and exurbs, Republicans had average turnout in the rural strongholds while the Democrats had a surge everywhere but Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha which cost us the election.

Kloppenburg would probably have a 4 point victory if there was a surge in turnout among minority communities.  


[ Parent ]
Obama won this district 53-46, and Holperin is the proven vote-getting incumbent, so...
...Holperin should be considered a slight favorite.

The real question is GOP candidate recruitment.  We've done well getting good challengers vs. Kapanke, Hopper, and Olsen (still waiting on Harsdorf and petitions not even filed yet vs. Darling).  The GOP will need a real good candidate to make this a tossup vs. Holperin.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]