Google Ads


Site Stats

NJ-Sen: GOP's Top Recruit Backs Out

by: James L.

Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 1:12 PM EDT


Looks like New Jersey Dems have just dodged a bullet:

Despite being poised to enter the Republican Senate primary race for the second time in two weeks, Princeton biotech executive John Crowley once again withdrew his name from consideration today.

"John was deeply impressed with the outpouring of support for his potential candidacy for the US Senate. Many people both locally here in New Jersey and nationally had been encouraging him to run over the past week, but given his tremendous level of responsibility to his family, his company and to the US Navy, he's decided not to enter the US Senate race this year," said Crowley's friend and advisor, Bill Spadea. "I know there was a lot of legitimate anticipation that John would enter this race we've been upfront with the many obligations he has, and his decision had to come down to his family."

Crowley had a compelling personal story, and a huge net worth that could have been put to use to fund his campaign.  But alas, the GOP really can't catch a break this cycle.

Dry those tears, John Ensign.  Disgraced Goya Foods frat boy Andy Unanue is apparently reconsidering his decision to drop out of the race now the Crowley has pulled the plug on his bid.

James L. :: NJ-Sen: GOP's Top Recruit Backs Out
Tags: , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Thank God
Seriously, what a compelling story.  His wife and kids were going to die, and he raised 100 million dollars, invested in biotech companies, and found a cure, or at least treatment.  I haven't read very in depth here.  What a guy.  

Woof, we really dodged a bullet on that one.
I was actually hoping that this guy declaring on the GOP side would lead to Dems encouraging Lautenberg to actually retire, and our having a real primary between Andrews and Pallone or Holt or both, such that we wound up with a Pallone/Holt vs Crowley open seat race in the fall.  That would be expensive as hell, but I do think we'd win it, and we'd get a new, younger, good Senator.

I think Lautenberg vs Crowley would have been a very awkward matchup, due partly to Lautenberg's advanced age.  I don't know if Jersey Dems would have actually tried to edge Lautenberg out, but I hope they would have.

Anyway, all moot now.  Back to cheering for Lautenberg, and the unfortunate fact that both of Jersey's senators are likely to have been chosen by the governor before this class is up again.  That sucks, but if Lautenberg won't retire then there's no choice.

Still wouldn't object to seeing Pallone or Holt in this primary though.  Not Andrews.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08


PRAISE GOD!
When the hell is the filing deadline!?  Can he reconsider again?  

And to wish for chaos (a Holt/Andrews/Pallone/Lautenberg/Crowley race) with the possiblity of a conservative republican senator, instead of a reliable progressive senator (Lautenberg) simply because he's a senior citizen, seems silly and destructive.

This is GREAT news!


Filing deadline: Tomorrow!
SSP has a list of every state's filing deadline here.

[ Parent ]
Filing deadline is tomorrow.
Though he did already have the petitions signed, so he still could file tomorrow should he re-reconsider.  But I'm doubting he will, considering the reasons he gave.

[ Parent ]
Wow.
Whoever is in charge of recruiting for the GOP needs to retire. Or be taken to the arctic and left on an ice flow.

Wow. Just wow.

Great news for the Democrats, but this is terrible news for the Republicans.

After this news, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the Democrats don't lose a single Senate seat and about a 10% shot at them winning a 60 seat majority.  


I'd give us a 55-45 chance of not losing a seat
Obama at the top of the ticket should help Landreiu with AA turnout, and she still has a sizable CoH advantage over Kennedy, as the DSCC has a huge cash advantage over the NRSC.  

Remember, Landreiu survived 2002, which was no walk in the park.  


[ Parent ]
It's more than just a sizeable advantage...
... Kennedy seems to be turning to Bush, of all people, for fundraising assistance in his desperation.  Not sure how well that will go over in Louisiana, a state where the majority of the population blames the Chimp-in-Chief on the federal level as much as they blamed Blanco and Nagin (however unjustified the latter may or may not be) on the state and local level for the debacles that resulted in the devastation of Katrina.

Though I'm not ready to say "Stick a fork in this one, it's done," it's quickly approaching that kind of place...


[ Parent ]
A Knife Can't be Stuck in This One!
BluerOhio...I can only wish to have the optimism that you have on Louisiana right now. Quickly approaching "Stick a fork in this one, its done" status? I don't see it quickly approaching that at all. Given the state this race is taking place in (I know LA-CD6 may go Democrat), the current polls that have shown both candidates ahead, and Kennedy raising more money in the last quarter, this race is raw and a knife won't pierce it to call it done!

I hope those fundraising numbers gives Landrieu a swift kick in the ass and into gear more. I want to see more state endorsements, a Q2 with more funds raised, and some polls that show a lead. Kennedy is going to have the support of the GOP, NRSC (their only offensive race), Gov. Jindal, 5 GOP US Representatives from the state, and the climate of the southern states.

I sincerely want to make 2008 just like 2006 with no incumbent Democrats losing. Right now I'd say we have 4 House seats (OR-CD5, KS-CD2, FL-CD16, & AL-CD5) and this Senate seat (LA-SEN) we need to put a lot of effort into to ensure we keep these seats. This is where the DEMs play defense, and we need to use the cash on it.

KELL


[ Parent ]
AMEN!
Ryan, you're right on the mark!

[ Parent ]
Five GOP Reps?
You're assuming a hold in LA-06 which is a 50-50 race.  And McCreary's in LA-04 retiring, so he's obviously not going to heavily campaign (and there's an off-chance we could snag that seat).  We'll probably lose LA-01, but that only gets you to three.

[ Parent ]
House defense
What about TX-22 (Lampson) and CA-11 (McNerney) and Giffords (AZ-08) and Shea-Porter (NH-01)?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Thats my point
If she can win 2002 she can definitely win this year.  However, I did become less comfortable about it seeing that he outraised her by $1.4 million to her $1 million.  I still think she will win but I am becoming a little more pessimistic about it as time goes on.

[ Parent ]
Then again, where else would the national donors invest?
Republicans from 50 states, elected, business, and grassroots, are funding Kennedy.  I'd be surprised if he wouldn't have outraised Landrieu.

But it's no biggie, 'cuz that's the only state where the DSCC has to invest in defense.  And then there's the fundraising advantage from the top of the ticket - an Obama fundraiser or two would be worth a lot.


[ Parent ]
Money no biggie
So turncoat Kennedy raised about $400,000 more than Landrieu in the first quarter. No big deal. The Repubs have known for years that they'd go after Landrieu, they got a Benedict Arnold to be their candidate, and all they could get together to launch his campaign was a lousy $1.4 million?

Their Benedict Arnold currently holds the job of State Treasurer, and I can smell the rancid odor of 'pay to play' all the way from here! When someone goes over his donor list we'll find big contributions from all kinds of folks with financial firms.

So they've gathered what they can from people doing business with the Treasurer's office and the long-promised contributions from their fat-cat loyalists. What to do next? They're scraping the bottom of the well by bringing in Bush for a fund-raising event. If the cash was flowing like they hoped, they wouldn't be running to D.C. for help.


[ Parent ]
Democrat Sweep
While I think there's a good chance Landreiu will win in Louisiana, I think there's a chance the Democrats could lose another seat because of some unforeseen event. Like someone dying before November. Not that I'm naming names.  

[ Parent ]
A healthy dose of pessimism . . .
. . . is always good for lighting the proverbial fire under our proverbial tuchuses.

With that being said . . . raising the notion of someone dying is a bit grim.  I think we'll be fine in that regard as long as all our senators take precautions not to fly on private planes!


[ Parent ]
Death or resignation?
The odds of late seem to be higher that a Republican Senator will resign early to become a lobbyist than that a Democratic Senator (or any Senator) will die.

It's easy enough to calculate the odds that a "normal" or average 90 year old will live four more years (for example) but Bobby Byrd is not a normal 90 year old and the medical care of the typical 90 year old is nowhere near as good as that available to a US Senator.

The average odds (based on US Census data are that Lautenberg has about a 50/50 chance (48.4% using 2003 data for a white male)of living out the 6 years but a healthy multi-millionaire is not typical.  Byrd's odds look worse but then again he's not typical, either.

The Census Bureau does not keep the odds for individuals above 100 but the odds of surviving that last year between 99 and 100 are slightly less than 67% for a white male.  Strom Thurmond was really pushing it in a way that neither Biobby Byrd nor Frank Lautenberg are.  Just saying.


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox